世界银行-绿化欧洲和中亚经济（英）

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WORLDBANKEUROPEANDCENTRALASIAINFOCUS

GreeningtheEconomyofEuropeandCentralAsia

OfficeoftheChiefEconomist

WORLDBANKGROUP

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Coverdesign:LaurenKaleyJohnson

iii

Contents

Acknowledgments v

Abbreviations vi

Overview vii

GreeningtheEconomyofEuropeandCentralAsia 1

Carbonemissionsandtheirdriversintheregion 1

The2022energypriceshockanditsimplicationsforenergysecurity.7

PoliciestogreentheECAeconomy 10

Investmentstogreentheeconomy 10

Pricingpolicies 14

Reformingfossilfuelsubsidies 14

Pricingcarbon 15

Regulatorypolicies 18

Decarbonizingtransport 19

Complementarypoliciesforasmoothertransition 19

Adaptingtoclimatechange 20

Conclusions 27

References 29

ivnWorldBankEuropeandCentralAsiaInFocus

Boxes

1.

TheEuropeanUnion’sGreenDealInvestmentPlan 13

2.

ClimatechangeimpactsandvulnerabilityinselectedcountriesinEuropeandCentralAsia 21

Figures

O.1Carbonemissionsbyworldregion viii

O.2.Top20globalemitters(excludingChinaandtheUnitedStates) viii

O.3.PercapitacarbonemissionsinEMDEs viii

O.4.Top20percapitacarbonemitters viii

O.5.EmissionsintensityofGDP viii

O.6.Top20countriesbyemissionsintensityofGDP viii

1.Carbonemissionsbyworldregionandsubregion,2020 2

2.Percapitacarbonemissionsbyworldregion,1990–2020 3

3.CorrelationbetweenpercapitacarbonemissionsandpercapitaGDPinEuropeandCentralAsia 4

4.PercapitacarbonemissionsinEuropeandCentralAsia,bysubregion,1990–2020 4

5.CarbonemissionsintensitiesinEuropeandCentralAsia,bysubregion,1990–2020 5

6.TotalenergysupplyinEuropeandCentralAsia,bysource,1990–2020 6

7.HistoricalandfuturespricesofnaturalgasattheDutchTitleTransferFacility,2016–31 9

8.Simulatedeffectofpricingcarbonat$75and$150pertonofCO2equivalentonemissionsin

EuropeandCentralAsiaandtheEuropeanUnion,bytypeofemission 17

Tables

1.UnderpricingoffossilfuelsinEuropeandCentralAsia,bycountry,2020 8

2.ClimatechangemitigationtargetsandpoliciesinEuropeandCentralAsia,bycountry 11

3.Climatechangevulnerability,readiness,andadaptivenessscoresinEuropeandCentralAsia,

bycountry,2019 23

4.KeyclimatechangeadaptationmeasuresforEuropeandCentralAsia 26

Acknowledgmentsnv

Acknowledgments

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbytheOfficeoftheChiefEconomistfortheEurope

andCentralAsiaregion.TheteamhasincludedIvailoIzvorski,MichaelLokshin,

GovindaTimilsina,andIvánTorre.Thereportdrawsonbackgroundpapers

preparedbyEdwardBarbierandRichardDamania.Theteamhasreceivedvaluable

inputsfromSzilviaDoczi,TomFarole,andSergiyKasyanenko,andconstructive

commentsandsuggestionsfromCharlesCormierandSamehWahba.

vinWorldBankEuropeandCentralAsiaInFocus

Abbreviations

CBAM

CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism

CCDR

CountryClimateDevelopmentReport

CO2

carbondioxide

EAP

EastAsiaandPacific

ECA

EuropeandCentralAsia

EMDEs

emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies

ETS

emissiontradingsystem

EU

EuropeanUnion

GDP

grossdomesticproduct

GHG

greenhousegasemission

IEA

InternationalEnergyAgency

kg

kilogram(s)

LAC

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

LNG

liquifiednaturalgas

MENA

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

NDC

NationallyDeterminedContribution

PM2.5

particulatematterwithadiameterof2.5micronsorless

PM10

particulatematterwithadiameterof10micronsorless

PV

solarphotovoltaic

R&D

researchanddevelopment

SIF

strategicinvestmentfund

SO2

sulphurdioxide

tCO2e

tonofCO2equivalent

Overviewnvii

Overview

TheimpactsofclimatechangearealreadyprofoundlyaffectingtheEurope

andCentralAsia(ECA)region.Duringthesummerof2023,Albania,Romania,

andTürkiyerecordedall-timehightemperatures,andcountriesintheEuropean

Union(EU)experiencedunusuallystrongheatwaves.Wildfiresbrokeoutin

Bulgaria,NorthMacedonia,andTürkiye,andacycloneintheMediterranean

(StormDaniel)causedsignificantfloodinginTürkiye.

Beyondtheseimmediateevents,long-termimpactsofclimatechangecan

besubstantial.ProjectionsforUzbekistanindicatethatby2050,thecountry’s

GDPwillbe10percentsmallerthaninascenariowithouttheimpactofclimate

change.1

Advancingpolicies,changinginstitutions,andadoptingmeasurestomiti-

gateandadapttoclimatechangeareamongthetopprioritiesofgovernments

aroundtheworld,ECAincluding.Tailoredpoliciesbasedoncountryconditions

wouldcontributetoglobaleffortstocombatclimatechange,helpensureECA’s

foodandwatersecurity,andplacetheECAcountriesonapathofmoresustain-

ableandgreenerlong-termgrowth.

ECAisamongtheworld’slargestcarbonemittersonapercapitabasis.It

emittedabout6.9metrictonsofcarbondioxide(CO2)perinhabitantin2020—60

percentmorethantheworldaverageof4.3metrictonsandmorethanallother

regionsexceptNorthAmerica(FigureO.3).EmissionspercapitainECArose1

percentbetween2000and2020,afterdeclining33percentinthe1990s,whenthe

countriesoftheregiontransitionedfromplannedtomarketeconomies.This

broadstabilityinlevelsofpercapitaemissionssince2000contrastswithboth

increasesinotherdevelopingregionsanddeclinesinrichercountries.2

ECAaccountedfor9.5percentofglobalemissionsin2020.Thisshareis

largerthanitsshareofglobalGDP(8.4percent)andoftheglobalpopulation

(5.9percent).Itsemissionsaccountforalargershareofglobalemissionsthan

Northern,Southern,andWesternEuropecombinedoranyotherdevelopingre-

gion.EvenexcludingtheRussianFederation,thelargestemitterinECAonaper

capitabasis(FigureO.3),ECAcountrieshadcarbonemissionsofnearly7metric

tonsofCO2perinhabitantin2020,abovetheworldaverage(4.3metrictons)and

thelevelsinEastAsiaandthePacific(nearly6tons),LatinAmericaandtheCa-

ribbean(LAC)(2.2metrictons),andSouthAsia(1.3metrictons).

1.UzbekistanCountryClimateDevelopmentReport(WorldBank,2023c).

2.Percapitacarbonemissionsgrew22percentintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaand75

percentinSouthAsiaoverthisperiod.Theyfellbyabout30percentintheUnitedStates

andby26percentintheEU(WorldDevelopmentIndicators).

viiinWorldBankEuropeandCentralAsiaInFocus

Millionkilotons

CO2kgper2017PPPUS$ofGDPMetrictonspercapita

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

FIGUREO.1.Carbonemissionsbyworldregion

20202000

EAPECASARMENALACSSA

FIGUREO.3.Percapitacarbon

emissionsinEMDEs

20202000

ECAEAPMENALACSARSSA

FIGUREO.5.EmissionsintensityofGDP

20202000

EAPMENAECASARSSALAC

Millionkilotons

2

1

0

IND

RUS

JPN

IRN

DEU

KOR

IDN

CAN

SAU

BRA

TUR

ZAF

MEX

AUS

VNM

GBR

ITA

POL

FRA

THA

FIGUREO.2.Top20globalemitters(excludingChinaandtheUnitedStates)

20202000

FIGUREO.4.Top20percapita

carbonemitters

Metrictonspercapita

QAT

BHR

BRN

KWT

ARE

OMN

AUS

SAU

CAN

USA

LUX

KAZ

RUS

KOR

TKM

TTO

PLW

CZE

JPN

CHN

20202000

40

30

20

10

0

FIGUREO.6.Top20countriesbyemissionsintensityofGDP

CO2kgper2017PPPUS$ofGDP

TKM

PLW

MNG

ZAF

IRN

KWT

CHN

OMN

BHR

UZB

LSO

KAZ

MHL

IRQ

TTO

BIH

LBY

RUS

COG

SRB

2.0

20202000

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators.

Note:ECAcountriesshadedinyellow.

Overviewnix

AnimportantfactorbehindECA’semissionsisitsheavyrelianceonfossil

fuelsinenergyconsumption.Excludingfossilfuel–dependentRussia,oilac-

countsfor43percentoftheregion’senergyconsumption,asaresultofitsperva-

siveuseintransportandindustry;naturalgasaccountsfor22percentandcoal7

percent.Nearly75percentofECA’senergyconsumptionisbasedonfossilfuels.

Naturalgasaloneaccountedfor35percentofelectricitygenerationin2020,far

morethantheglobalaverageofabout25percent.Coalproductscontributed28

percenttototalelectricitygenerationinECA—lessthantheglobalaverageof

about36percentbutabovethevaluesfortheUnitedStates(around20percent).

BecauseofECA’scoldwinters,heatingaccountsfor24percentofregionalenergy

demandand22percentofGHGemission,83percentofwhichisfromfossilfuels

(57percentcomesfromnaturalgasand24percentfromcoal).

ECAcountriesarealsonetenergyandhydrocarbonexporters,contributing

indirectlytoglobalemissionsthroughtheirexports.ECA’sshareofglobalfos-

silenergyextraction(16percent)ismuchhigherthanitsshareofemissions(9.5

percent),apatternalsoobservedinotherlargeextractiveeconomieslikethosein

theMiddleEastandNorthAfrica.WithinECA,Russiaisthelargestextractor,

accountingfor74percentoftheregion’shydrocarbonproduction,or12percent

ofglobalemissionsincludingbothdirectandindirectcontributions.

Between2000and2020,strongereconomicgrowthledtoa7percentincrease

inoverallemissionsinECA,despiteimprovedenergyefficiency,greaterreli-

anceonrenewableenergysources,andchangesineconomicstructure(Figure

O.1).Otherregionsoftheworldsawevenlargerincreases:15percentinLAC,82

percentintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA),and137percentinEast

AsiaandPacific(EAP).Incontrast,emissionsfellby23percentinNorthAmerica

and30percentinWesternEurope.

Between2000and2020,ECA’seconomygrewbyabout108percentandthe

region’semissionsintensityfellby50percent,measuredinCO2emissionsper

unitofGDP.ThisreductionisgreaterthantheaveragefortheOrganisationfor

EconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)andallotherworldregions

duringthesameperiod.ECA’semissionsintensityamountedtoabout0.3kgof

CO2perunitofGDPin2020(in2017USdollarsatPPP),higherthanthatofSouth

AsiaandLAC,butlowerthanthatofMENA(0.35kg),EAP(0.42kg),andWest-

ernEurope(0.13kg)(FigureO.5).

Onereasonforthehighcarbonintensityandthecontinuedhighdepen-

denceonfossilfuelsinECAistheheavysubsidizationofenergy.Fossilfuel

subsidiesinECAamountedto$110billionin2020(3.6percentofregionalGDP).

Russiaaccountedfor$78billion(5.2ofGDP).Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan,and

Ukraineallprovidedenergysubsidiesin2020ofmorethan4percentofGDP.By

comparison,theEUcountriesexcludingPolandspent$25billioninfossilfuel

subsidiesin2020(0.2percentGDP).In2022,governmentsacrossboththeEuro-

peanUnionandECAincreasedenergysubsidiesinresponsetothesurgeinen-

ergyprices.Bymid-2023,theirvolumehadbeensignificantlyreduced,however,

andactualexpenditurewaslowerthanplannedaftertheinitialshock,thanksto

themildwinterof2022–23.

xnWorldBankEuropeandCentralAsiaInFocus

Thejumpinnaturalgasandwholesaleelectricitypricesin2022resultedinthelargestenergyshocktotheEuropeanUnionandECAsincethe1970s.ThesteeppricehikereflectedmainlytheheavyrelianceonRussiannaturalgasandthecouplingofAsianandEuropeanmarkets.Alloftheseeventsoccurredastheregionrecordedasolidpost-pandemiceconomicrecoveryin2021,accompaniedbyalargeincreaseinenergydemandbutlower-than-usualnaturalgasreserves.Asaresultofthecouplingofgasandelectricityprices(becauseinmanyEuro-peancountries,thelastunitofelectricitydispatchedrunsonnaturalgas),whole-saleelectricitypricesalsorose.Thepricehikenegativelyaffectedenergy-depen-dentsectorsoftheeconomy,pushedinflationtomulti-decadehighs,andaffectedthemitigationpoliciesofECAcountries.

Theenergyshockredefinedtheunderstandingofenergysecurity,under-scoringtheneedtodiversifythesourcesofenergysupplyandsubstantiallyreducedependenceonimportedfossilfuels.Energysecurityisnowatoppolicypriorityformanycountriesintheregionandtheworld.Itinvolvesstrikingabalancebetweenmeetingcurrentenergyneedsandensuringfutureaccesstoenergyresources,ensuringtheuninterruptedavailabilityofenergysuppliesatanaffordablepricewhilerespectingenvironmentalconcerns.Accordingtothisdefinition,energysecurityisnotensuredforthe2023/24winter,asshortagesofnaturalgasarepossibleincountrieswithlimitedgasstorageorpooraccesstoLNGterminals.

Effortstoachieveenergysecuritycanbealignedwitheffortstodecarbonizeeconomiesandachievestrongerandsustainablelong-termeconomicgrowth.

Thecleanenergytransition—whichinvolvesscalingupthedevelopmentofdo-mesticrenewableenergy,usingenergyefficiently,andsupplementingthesepoli-cieswitheffectiveenergytradepolicies—willhelpdecarbonizetheenergysectorandmakecountriesmoreenergysecure.Adoptingnewtechnologiesalsocreatesanopportunitytoboosteconomicgrowthrates,whichhaveweakenedinmanycountries.Infact,withoutdecarbonizingtheregion,long-termeconomicpros-pectslookchallenging.Noeconomicmodelbasedonfossilfuelsisviableoverthelongterm,largelybecauseofglobaleffortstowardnet-zeroemissions,whichwilllowerdemandforfossilfuel,withsignificantimpactsonfossilfuel–export-ingcountries.

Therisingadoptionofgreenertechnologieswillimprovecompetitivenessforearlymovers,aswellasthegrowingtrendtowardcarbontaxesonimports,suchastheintroductionfrom2024oftheCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism(CBAM)bytheEuropeanUnion.AccordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgency“theeconomiccaseformature,cleanenergytechnologiesisstrong.Energysecu-rityisalsoakeyfactor,particularlyinfuel-importingcountries,asareindustrialstrategiesandthedesiretocreatecleanenergyjobs.”3EarlyfindingsoftheWorldBank’sCountryClimateDevelopmentReports(CCDRs)findeconomicgrowthtobesimilaror,insomecases,fasterinlow-carbondevelopmentscenariosthaninscenariosundercurrentpoliciesorcommitments(referencescenarios),

3.IEA.WorldEnergyOutlook2023.

/reports/world-energy-out

-look-2023/executive-summary.

Overviewnxi

assumingpoliciesarewelldesignedandasupportiveenvironmentisinplace.By

2050,thelow-carbondevelopmentscenariosexploredinCCDRswouldreduce

countries’GHGsby73percentfromcurrentlevels.

Alonger-termstructuralshifttowardcleanenergy(mostlyrenewablesand

nuclear)istakingplaceinECA.TheIEAestimatedinDecember2022thatthe

naturalgassupplygapfor2023inEuropehadalreadybeenhalvedthroughdi-

versificationawayfromRussianenergymarkets,energy-savingmeasures,and

anaccelerateddeploymentofrenewablesandheatpumps.WorldBankmodel-

ingestimatesindicatethatbetween2024and2030,ECA’senergyconsumption

(excludingRussia)issettorelymoreonrenewables,coal,andnuclearenergy.4

Amoreaggressivecoalphase-outwouldrequiremoreconcertedpolicyactions.

Naturalgasconsumptionintheregionhasalreadypeakedandissettodecline,

butgasisexpectedtocontinuetoplayanimportantroleinthecleanenergy

transitionbecauseofitsbalancingproperties.Increasinglycompetitiverenew-

ableenergygenerationenablescountriestoincreasetheshareofdomesticenergy

resourcesandreducefossilfuelimportdependencies.

Theenergytransitionwillrequiresignificantinvestments.Accordingtoa

WorldBankreport:

Tofinanceajusttransitionthatisconsistentwithboththegoalsof

ensuringuniversalaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainable,and

modernenergyby2030andthe2015ParisAgreementonClimate

Change,developingcountrieswillhavetomobilizefarmorecapital

thantheydotoday.Powersectorinvestmentinlow-incomecoun-

tries(LICs)andmiddle-incomecountries(MICs),excludingChina,

mustquadruplefromanaverageof$240billionannuallyin2016–20

to$1trillionin2030(WorldBank2023b,iv).

InECA,Kazakhstanwillrequireabout$1,150billionbetween2025and20605

(6percentofcumulativediscountedGDP)toreachnet-zeroemissionsby2060.6

Türkiyewillrequireabout$644billion(around4.8percentofcumulativedis-

countedGDP)toreachnetzeroby2040.Uzbekistanwillrequire$341billion(3.8

percentofGDPperyear)toreachnetzeroby2060.7ThecountriesintheWestern

Balkanswouldneedtospendanadditional$19.7billion(1.4percentofGDP)a

yearuntil2050toachieveeconomy-widenet-zero.8

Theprivatesectorwillneedtomakeabout70–80percentofthetotalinvest-

mentindecarbonization(thisfigureincludesbothcapitalinvestmentandcon-

sumption(suchastheacquisitionofelectricvehiclesbyhouseholds).9Govern-

4.ECAEnergyFutures(WorldBankforthcominga).

5.Thisfigureaswellassimilarfiguresforothercountries,includebothcapitalinvestment

andconsumption(suchastheacquisitionofprivateelectricvehiclesbyhouseholds).

6.FiguresfromtheKazakhstanCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(WorldBank,2022a).

7.FiguresfromtheUzbekistanCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(WorldBank,2023b).

8.FiguresfromtheWesternBalkansCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(World

Bank,forthcomingb).

9.SeeAnanthakrishnanandothers(2023)IMFforthe80percentfigure:https://www.imf.

org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/10/02/emerging-economies-need-much-more-private-financ-

ing-for-climate-transition.SeeIEA(2021)forthe70percentfigure.

/

articles/the-cost-of-capital-in-clean-energy-transitions.

xiinWorldBankEuropeandCentralAsiaInFocus

mentswillneedtoimplementnationalpoliciesandcarryoutpublicinvestmentstoincentivizeprivateinvestmentsandtohelpshiftthefinancingofthegreentransitiontomarket-basedapproaches.

Investmentsinenergyinfrastructurecanallowcountriestobothmitigateandadapttoclimatechange.Investmentsthatimprovebuildingenergyeffi-ciencyreduceGHGemissionsandpreparebuildingstowithstandthechallengesposedbyachangingclimate.Decentralizedrenewableenergysystems,suchassolarandwind,canhelpensureamoreresilientenergysupplyinthefaceofex-tremeweathereventsordisasters,especiallyinremoteandvulnerableregions.Energystorageenablestheintegrationintothegridofmoreintermittentrenew-ableenergysourceswhileprovidingbackuppowerduringoutages,ensuringresilienceagainstextremeweathereventsorotherdisruptions.TransitioningfromfossilfuelstorenewablesreducesGHGemissionsandtheamountofwater

neededforgeneration,makingitparticularlyimportantinregionsfacingwaterscarcity.Demandresponsesystemsalsoimproveenergyefficiencyandhelppre-ventoverloadsduringextremeweatherevents.

Thetransitiontoclean,affordable,andsecureenergywillrequirearangeofpoliciestocomplementandfacilitaterequiredinvestmentsandsupporttheshiftofresourcesawayfromfossilfuelswhileprotectingvulnerablepopula-tions.Thefollowingpoliciesareparticularlyimportant:

1.Pricingreformsthataddressmarketfailures.InseveralcountriesinECA,thepricesdomesticconsumerspayforelectricityandnaturalgasdonotcovercosts.InUzbekistan,asaresultofongoinggovernmentre-forms,theretailtariffsofnaturalgasandelectricityareprojectedtoin-creasefrom60percentand75percentofthecostattheendof2023,re-spectively,tofullcostrecoverybytheendof2026.Pricingreformsarecomplementedwithsupportforvulnerablehouseholds.

2.Thereductionorphase-outofenergysubsidies.Subsidiesforfossilfu-elsareamongthegreatestmarketdisincentivesfordecarbonizationandagreentransition.Theunderpricingoffossilfuelsoccursintwoways.First,themarketpricespaidforfossilfuelsdonotaccountforthevariousexternalities,includingtheclimatechangedamagesfromGHGemissionsandlocalairpollutantsthatcauseillnessanddeathsorresultinothersocialcosts.Second,inmanycountries,exploration,production,andcon-sumptionsubsidiesartificiallylowerthecostsofsupplyingorthepricespaidforfossilfuelsandtheirkeyproducts:electricity,diesel,andgaso-line.Thesesubsidiesmeanthattheplayingfieldbetweenfossilfuelandcleanenergyinvestmentsisnotlevel,increasingtheattractivenessofin-vestinginandusingthesesourcesofenergyratherthancleanenergyal-ternatives.Reducingfossilfuelsubsidiesalsocreatesfiscalspace,whichgovernmentscanusetofinancethetransitiontoalow-carboneconomy.

3.Socialpoliciestoreduceenergypoverty.Removingfossilfuelsubsidieswillhurtpoorhouseholdsthatconsumesubsidizedenergy.Aboutone-thirdofthepeoplelivinginECAexperienceenergypoverty,definedasspending10percentormoreofaveragemonthlyoutlaysonenergybills.

Overviewnxiii

Thisistypicallyduetohighheatingexpenditures.Itisthereforeimpor-

tantthattheremovaloffossilfuelsubsidiesbeimplementedtranspar-

ently,andwithsupporttovulnerablehouseholds.Topreventenergy

povertyforvulnerablehouseholdswhenfuelandelectricitypricesrise,

ECAcountriesshouldconsidertargetedassistancethatvariesbyhouse-

holdincomeandenergyuse.Countrieswithlowadministrativecapacity

couldscaleupexistingprogramsandprovidetop-upbenefitstostandard

beneficiaries,suchasthepoorandothervulnerablegroupsthesystem

alreadytargets.Doingsowouldresultinbetteradequacyofprotection

forthevulnerablegroups,althoughitwouldnotfullycushiontheimpact

ofhigherenergyprices.

4.Taxinstrumentstofacilitatethegreentransition.Carbonpricing(acar-

bontaxoranemissiontradingsystem[ETS])isthemostcommonpricing

policyusedtohelpreduceGHGemissions,particularlyinEUmember

states.Othercountrieshavemovedmoreslowly.Kazakhstanlaunched

itsETSin2013butsuspendedthesystemin2016–17totackleoperational

issuesandreformallocationrules.Itrelauncheditin2021,withWorld

Banksupport.Countriesthatareeitherplanningorconsideringintroduc-

inganETSincludeAlbania,BosniaandHerzegovina,Georgia,Moldova,

Montenegro,NorthMacedonia,Serbia,Türkiye,andUkraine.Carbon

pricingpoliciesshouldbeimplementedafterareductioninfoss