我是班级值日生

能源与环境模型

模拟模型优化模型/e/186.html能源与环境模型http://www.shuoshuoabcMethodologyoftheLeapModel

(模拟模型)Thispresentationwillprobablyinvolveaudiencediscussion,whichwillcreateactionitems.UsePowerPointtokeeptrackoftheseactionitemsduringyourpresentationInSlideShow,clickontherightmousebuttonSelect“MeetingMinder”Selectthe“ActionItems”tabTypeinactionitemsastheycomeupClickOKtodismissthisboxThiswillautomaticallycreateanActionItemslideattheendofyourpresentationwithyourpointsentered.MethodologyoftheLeapModel

MethodologicalframeworkofLeapTheproblemisdisaggregatedintofouractivelevels:1.Sector2.Sub-sector3.End-use4.DeviceEnergyintensityandemissionfactorsareassociatedwitheachdeviceatthelevel4TotalenergydemandandemissionamountarecalculatedMethodologicalframeworkofLeMethodologicalframeworkofLeapMethodologicalframeworkofLeHowLeapWorksForecastthetotaltraveldemandEstimatetheenergydemandEstimatetheemissionamountandtheconcentrationofpollutantsHowLeapWorksForecastthetotForecastthetotaltraveldemandForecastthetotaltraveldemaEstimationoftheenergydemandEstimationoftheenergydemanEstimationof

theemissionamount

andtheconcentrationofpollutantsEstimationof

theemissionamDatarequirementformodelinputThispresentationwillprobablyinvolveaudiencediscussion,whichwillcreateactionitems.UsePowerPointtokeeptrackoftheseactionitemsduringyourpresentationInSlideShow,clickontherightmousebuttonSelect“MeetingMinder”Selectthe“ActionItems”tabTypeinactionitemsastheycomeupClickOKtodismissthisboxThiswillautomaticallycreateanActionItemslideattheendofyourpresentationwithyourpointsentered.DatarequirementformodelinpDatarequirementformodelinputCalculatingPrecisionDataBranchTravelDemandActiveLevels(VKT)FactorDatarequirementformodelinpCalculatingPrecisionBasiccalculationOnlypassengertransportareconsideredVehicletypeGasolinecar,Dieselbus,Lightrail,SubwayPollutanttypeCO,NOx,HC,SO2,TSP,PM10,CO2CalculatingPrecisionBasiccalCalculatingPrecisionAdvancedcalculationBothpassengerandfreighttransportareconsideredVehicletypeLDGV,LDDV,LDGT1,LDGT2,LDDT,HDGTHDDV,Motorcycles,Lightrail,SubwayPollutanttypeCO,NOx,HC,SO2,TSP,PM10,CO2CalculatingPrecisionAdvancedTravelDemandPopulation1990-2000Predictionofthenaturalgrowthrateofpopulation%,2000-2020IncomepercapitaUS$/person,1990-2000Predictionofthegrowthrateoftheincomepercapita%,2000-2020Numberofvehicles1990-2000,bytypeEffectiveutilizationkm/y,1990-2000,bytypeTravelDemandPopulationActiveLevelsSectorTotaltraveldemand

Passenger·kmorTonne·kmSub-sectorShareoftheroadtraffic1990-2000End-useShareofeachvehicletypePercent,1990-2000DeviceVehiclespace

Passenger·km/Vehicle·kmorTonne·km/Vehicle·kmActiveLevelsSectorFactorAveragefuelefficiencykm/l,1990-2000,byvehicletypesFuelCostUS$/l,1990-2000Averageemissionfactorofeachpollutantbyvehicletypes,byjourneyspeedEmissionamountandairconcentrationofeachpollutant1990-2000FactorAveragefuelefficiencyEnergyProductionandConsumptioninChina

--highgrowthrateofenergyproductionEnergyProductionandConsumptFutureForecastofEnergyDemandinChina

--MacroeconomicanddemographicindicatorsFutureForecastofEnergyDemaFutureForecastofEnergyDemandinChina

--Forecastonend-energydemandandmixFutureForecastofEnergyDemaFutureForecastofEnergyDemandinChina

--ForecastonprimaryenergydemandandmixFutureForecastofEnergyDemaFutureForecastofEnergyDemandinChina

--predictionindicationsThetotalprimaryenergyconsumptionwillincreasesignificantly.Itwillbemorethandoubledby2020.Theshareofcoalinendusewilldecreasesignificantly,whilestilldominatingtheprimaryenergysupply.Electricitywillplayamoreimportantroleinenduse.Naturalgaswillincreasebutislimitedbythesupply.Industrywillremainthemajorenergyconsumerinthetargetyear,whiletheshareofresidentialenergyconsumptionwillslowlyincrease.FutureForecastofEnergyDemaAirPollutionRelatedtoEnergyConsumption

--PollutantsEmissionsOverTimeHorizon

atBAUScenario

AirPollutionRelatedtoEnergConclusions--

Reductionofprimaryenergysuppliesunderenhancedenvironmentalscenarios,Mtce

Conclusions--

ReductionofpriConclusions--

ReductionofPollutantEmissionsforEnhancedScenarioIandIIoverBAUConclusions--

ReductionofPoEnergyProductionandConsumptioninChina

--Energyproductionandconsumption

locateunevenlyEnergyProductionandConsumptConclusions Withtheinclusionofaboveactionsandoptions,whatwouldhappenunderenhancedscenarios,comparedwithbusiness-as-usual,isrevealedbelow:ChangingmixofprimaryenergysupplyReducingthedemandofprimaryenergyMitigatingemissionsofvariouspollutantsConclusions WiththeinclusionConclusions Thedevelopmentstrategyforsustainabledevelopmentofenergyandenvironmentalprotectionincludes:implementingcomprehensiveplanningofenergy,whichincorporatingenvironmentalconsiderations;improvingenergyefficiencyandconservation;diversifyingenergysuppliesintonon-coalsources;investinginindustrialairpollutioncontrol.Conclusions ThedevelopmentstMODELINGINVESTMENTSTRATEGIESINCHINAPOWERSECTORANDIMPLICATIONSOFSINO-USCARBONTRADING(优化模型)

MODELINGINVESTMENTSTRATEGIESTheGoalofThisResearchDeterminethemostcosteffectiveinvestmentstrategyfortherequiredadditionalcapacitytomeettheincreasingelectricitydemandofChinaInvestigatetheimpactsofthegrowingelectricpowersectorontheenvironmentIdentifytheimpactofeconomicpoliciesandenvironmentalregulationsonthefuturetechnologychoicesAnalyzethetechnologicaloptionsavailabletoChinatoreducepollutionExplorethepossibilityforUS-ChinaCarbontradingTheGoalofThisResearchDeterCoalwashingElectricitydemandsregionwide&nationwideDOMSMLDOMMEDDOMESPDOMSCBDOMBIGAFBCPFBCIGCCOILREGOILCCGASCCNUCLEARHYDROWINDPVGTHH-coalMH-coalLH-coalHL-coalML-coalLL-coalRailRoadShipRail&shipRawcoalRailPipelineShipRail&shipCrudeoilNaturalgaswiresTransmittedinter-regionallyRenewableReservesParameters:EconomicTechnicalEnvironmentalSocialEmissionscapEmissionstransferlimitSulfurdepositFuelminingcost+Coalwashingcost+Fueltransportcost+Electricitygeneration&transmissioncostMinimumOil&gasimportCoalwashingElectricitydemandParameterdescriptions16technologies:DOMSML:Unitcapacity100MWDOMMED:100--200MWDOMESP:300MWwithESPDOMSCB:300MWwithscrubberDOMBIG:200--300MWwithESPAFBC:foreignatmosphericfluidizedbedIGCC:integratedgasificationcombinedcyclePFBC:PressurizedFBCOILREG:oilfiredtraditionalunitOilcc:oilfiredcombinedcycleGASCC:gasturbinecombinedcycleNUCLEAR:nuclearpowerHYDRO:hydroelectricpowerWIND,PV,GeothermalpowerSixtypesofcoalHHCOAL: [S]3%,[ash]20%MHCOAL: [S]=1-3%,[ash]20%LHCOAL: [S]1%,[ash]20%HLCOAL: [S]1%,[ash]20%MLCOAL: [S]=1-3%%,[ash]20%LLCOAL: [S]1%,[ash]20%Parameterdescriptions16technSixRegionPresentationofChinaSixRegionPresentationofChiModelConstraintsDemandconstraintstomeetelectricitydemandineachtimeperiodandregionFuelsupplyconstraintsTransportationcapacityandtransmissionrestrictionsElectricitygenerationconstraintsbasedonconversionefficienciesandcapacityfactorsoftechnologiesEnvironmentalconstraints(limitsonSO2emissions,sulfurdepositions,andCO2targets)ModelConstraintsDemandconstHowthemodelworksHowthemodelworksHowthemodelworksHowthemodelworks我是班级值日生Case2Case3Case4Case5Case1Case1.1Case1.2Case1.3UnrealisticcasesRealisticcasesBasecaseWithSO2constraintsWithSO2&CO2constraintsWithSO2constraints+carbontax$25/tCCase2Case3Case4Case5Case1Case1UnrealisticCasesUnrealisticCasesUnrealisticcasesPercentageofelectricitygenerationbytechnologiesUnrealisticcasesPercentageofMixofelectricitygenerationfor5casesin2020MixofelectricitygenerationNationalelectricitygenerationpriceforrealisticcases(UScent/kwh)Nationalelectricitygeneratio

MarginalCostofCarboninPowerSectorfortheRealisticBaseCase

MarginalCost