第十二章火山活动对气候的影响

全球气候系统GlobalClimateSystem第十二章火山活动及其气候影响第十二章火山活动及其气候影响12.1火山活动12.2火山活动指数12.3气候响应12.4火山活动影响的模拟VolcanicinputstotheatmosphereAshgases:H2OCO2SO2H2S

FirstmajoreruptionofPinatubo,fromClarkAirBase.Philippines.June12,1991.ImagesandcaptionsfromUSGSFirstmajoreruptionofPinatubo,fromClarkAirBase.Philippines.June12,1991.ImagesandcaptionsfromUSGSWorldAirwaysDC10airplanesettingonitstailbecauseofweightofPinatubo,June15,1991ash,CubiPointNavalAirStation.Philippines.SO21982ElChichon7x106T1991Pinatubo20x106TRadiativeforcing第十二章火山活动及其气候影响12.1火山活动12.2火山活动指数12.3气候响应12.4火山活动影响的模拟DVIDustVeilIndexVEIVolcanicExplosivityIndexIVIIce-coreVolcanicIndexAnnual-mean,globalandhemisphericmeanopticaldepthsat0.55μmfortheyears1850-1999第十二章火山活动及其气候影响12.1火山活动12.2火山活动指数12.3气候响应12.4火山活动影响的模拟分析方法:时序叠加:温度,降水,SST等序列分析:对应比较分析,相关分析,方差分析,谱分析,等数值模拟:EBM,RCM,ZAM,GCMCompositeglobalsurfacetemperaturechangenearthetimeofthefivevolcanosproducingthegreatestopticaldepthssince1880:Krakatau(1883),SantaMaria(1902),Agung(1963),ElChichon(1982)andPinatubo(1991).

ReductionofDiurnalCycleSummerCoolingGlobalNorthernHemisphereSouthernHemisphereSearetal.,1987StratosphericHeatingWinterWarming1991-1992NHwintertemperaturea.Obs,b.Simulated第十二章火山活动及其气候影响12.1火山活动12.2火山活动指数12.3气候响应12.4火山活动影响的模拟数值模拟:EBM,RCM,ZAM,GCM

0-2D1D2D3DSimulated,Pinatubo,10-15monthslater,TemperatureObserved,Pinatubo,10-15monthslater,TemperatureComparisonofpredicted(solidline)andobserved(dashedline)globaltropospherictemperatures.

GISS,3D-GCM,7events,Temperature,Robocketal.,1993GISS,3D-GCM,7events,Temperature,Robocketal.,1993Theeffectiveradiusoftheaerosolsizedistributionisassumedtobe0.20μmexceptforafewyearsaftervolcaniceruptions.Aerosolsizes