Kantar-肯尼亚当前的市场现实和2024年的消费者前景（英）

Currentmarketrealitiesandconsumeroutlookfor2024inKenya

Consumersresponsetothe

changingFMCGlandscape?

WorldpanelDivision,Kantar

Agenda

CurrentcontextimpactonShoppingbehavior?

01

02

IsImpactseenacrosssectors?

03

Whoismostimpacted?

04

Whichchannelisofgrowingimportancefortheirshopping?

05Conclusionandactionsfor2024

2

4.000

Brands

7m

Households

OurApproach

4.6B

Realshopper

Decisions

50

Categories

3

Categorieswetrack

FOOD

BreakfastCereals

ButterandMargarine

Savoury

EdibleOil

Pasta

Noodles,saltysnacks

Flour(Wheat,Porridge,Maize,Corn)

Sweetspread(Jam,Peanutbutter,Mayonnaise)

Pastries(Bread,Buns,Scones,Rolls,Doughnuts)

Sweetbakers(Biscuits,Cakes)

SugarConfections(Sweets,Gums)

BEVERAGEANDDAIRY

CSDsandEnergydrinks

Coffee

Juice

Cocoabeverages

BottledWater

FreshMilk

Yogurt

Mala

Long-lifeUHTMilk

Tea

Alcohol

PERSONALCARE

Deodorant

FeminineCare

HairConditioners

HairStyling

HairTreatment

Hand&BodyLotion

PetroleumJelly

Shampoo

ToiletSoap

Toothpaste

Glycerine

HOMECARE

AirFreshener

AntisepticLiquid

Bleach

Dishwash

FabricSoftener

Insecticides

LaundryBarSoap

LaundryDetergent

ScouringPowder

ToiletCleaner

4

1

Currentcontextimpact

onShoppingbehavior?

Kenyarecentinflationrate

Amixofdifferentfactors

InflationRateinKenya2023

9.09.29.2

7.9

8.0

7.9

7.3

6.7

6.8

6.9

6.8

6.6

JanFebMarAprilMayJunJulyAugSepOctNovDec

•TheannualinflationrateinKenya

edgeddownto6.6%inDecember2023from6.8%inthepreviousmonth,

remainingwithinthecentralbank’spreferredrangeof2.5to7.5%.

•ItwasalsothelowestratesinceApril2022.

•Onamonthlybasis,theCPIwentup0.4%,followinga0.2%risein

November.

KenyaInflationRate()

6

It’salltooeasytoviewinflationasaforcethatisdistributedevenlyacross

CategoriesPopulation

Brands

Industries

7

107

107

107

106

105

105

105

99

Avg2022Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23

RamadanSummerBackto

2023Vacationsschool

NosurprisethatconsumerarepayingmoreforFMCGitemsin2023

KenyaFMCGMonthlyKPIs|IndexedtotheaverageofFY2022

PriceperUnit

112

110

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

92

110

Source:WorldpanelbyKantar

8

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

108

104

98

96

95

92

102

93

91

91

88

88

Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23

Avg2022

Ramadan

Summer

Backto

2023

Vacations

school

Consequently,Leadingtodeclineinconsumershoppingtripsandbasketsize

KenyaFMCGMonthlyKPIs|

IndexedtotheaverageofFY2022

VolumeinUnitsSpends

140

90

85

KenyaFMCGMonthlyKPIs|

IndexedtotheaverageofFY2022

120

100

80

98

101

99

99

FrequencySpend/TripVolumeperTripinUnits

109

105

106

104

104

103

100

100

96

97

95

94

90

90

89

87

88

AvgJan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23

2022

9

Source:WorldpanelbyKantar

Basisthesignificant50FMCGcategorieswecurrentlytrackinKenya

2

IsImpactseenacross

sectors?

FMCG-6

-7

-7

-4

0

12

PersonalCare

ImpactinconsumptiondeclineisseenacrossmostoftheFMCGsectors

FMCGSectors|KPIs|MATDec2023

8%

2%

1%

3%

5%5%

-5%

-3%

-6%

-2%

-3%

-10%

TotalFMCG

PersonalCare

Non-Alcoholic

Beverage

Spendgrowth%

Volumegrowth%

FrequencyVol/TripinUnitsSpend/Trip

-1

6

-5

6

Food

-2

-4

-4

Non-Alcoholic

Beverage

9

3

Dairy

2

1

4

HomeCare

Source:WorldpanelbyKantar

11

GrowthinFMCGisbecomingharderforbrands

MATDec’21

37%

53%

10%

MATDec’22

49%

46%

5%

MATDec’23

45%

50%

5%

Growingbrands

Stablebrands

Decliningbrands

12

Source:WorldpanelbyKantar

Filteredtobrandswithupto5%penetrationinKenya;Growthdefinedas>3%volumegrowth(units)anddeclinedefinedas<-3%volumedecline(units)

AchallengeseenacrossallsectorsexceptinHomecare

MAT2023|Growing/decliningbrandsbysector

Food

49%

6%

45%

Beverage

57%

0%

43%

Dairy

54%

4%

42%

GrowthStableDecline

PersonalCare

50%

7%

43%

HomeCare

38%

14%

49%

13

Source:WorldpanelDivision,Kantar

Filteredtobrandswithupto5%penetrationinKenya;Growthdefinedas>3%volumegrowth(units)anddeclinedefinedas<-3%volumedecline(units)

IsImpactacrossMoreorLessPenetratedcategories?

MorePenetratedCategories(>50%Penetration)LessPenetratedCategories(<50%Penetration)

Food

Beverage

Dairy

PC

HC

Food

Beverage

Dairy

PC

HC

Culinary

Margarine

EdibleOil

Flour

Sweets

Biscuits

Pastries

Noodles

Juice

CarbonateSoftDrink

Cocoa&

Chocolate

Tea

Milk

Yoghurt

SkinCleansing

PetroleumJelly

OralCare

Lotions

FeminineCare

HairCare

LaundryPowder

LaundryBars

Fabric

Treatments

BreakfastCereals

Pasta

Sweet

Spread

PackagedWater

Coffee

Mala

Deodorants

Glycerin

DishwashingLiquidSoap

Insecticides

Antiseptics

ToiletCleaner

Bleaches

AirFreshener

ScouringPowder

Source:WorldpanelbyKantar

14

TotalFMCG

FoodMorePenetrated

BeverageMorePenetrated

DairyMorePenetrated

PersonalCareMorePenetrated

HomeCareMorePenetrated

-11

-31

-8

0

-2

FoodLessPenetrated

BeverageLessPenetrated

DairyLessPenetrated

PersonalCareLessPenetrated

HomeCareLessPenetrated

EntireSectoris

facingdecline

exceptCulinary

&Flour

-12

-3

-2

-5

-7

4

Shoppersarereducingtheiroverallconsumptiononallcategorygroups

OnlyspecificfewespeciallyinHomecarecanweatherthestorm

MorePenetrated&LessPenetrated:

AnnualVolumeGrowth%|MATDec‘23vsLY

<=-3%loss>=3%growth

Whichcategoriesareshowinggrowth?

AnnualVolumeGrowth%|MATDec‘23vsLY

Culinary

Cereals

Cocoa&Chocolate

Yogurt

Lotions

Deodorants

FeminineCare

HairCare

Insecticides

Fabric

Treatments

Toilet

Cleaner

Bleach

Air

Freshner

Source:WorldpanelbyKantar

15

TotalFMCG

-5

-1

3

0

2

-1

-6

-2

1

4

FoodMorePenetrated

BeverageMorePenetrated

DairyMorePenetrated

PersonalCareMorePenetrated

HomeCareMorePenetrated

FoodLessPenetrated

BeverageLessPenetrated

DairyLessPenetrated

PersonalCareLessPenetrated

HomeCareLessPenetrated

-1

TotalFMCG

FoodMorePenetrated

BeverageMorePenetrated

DairyMorePenetrated

PersonalCareMorePenetrated

HomeCareMorePenetrated

-11

-26

-7

-2

-7

FoodLessPenetrated

BeverageLessPenetrated

DairyLessPenetrated

PersonalCareLessPenetrated

HomeCareLessPenetrated

-6

-3

-1

-7

-7

1

Similarsituationintheiraveragebasketsizeandshoppingtrips

MorePenetrated&LessPenetrated:

AnnualVol/TripinUnitsEvolution%|MATDec‘23vsLY

<=-3%loss>=3%growth

MorePenetrated&LessPenetrated:

AnnualFrequencyEvolution%|MATDec‘23vsLY

BothcategoriesCoffee&

PackagedWater

contributedtothisdecline

16

Source:WorldpanelbyKantar

NE=Non-Essentials

Essentialsis"AnnualPenetrationof70%ormore";Non-Essentialsis“AnnualPenetrationislessthan70%

3

Whoismostimpacted?

Impactacrossshopperdemographics

Differentstrokesfordifferentfolks…differentconsumergroupsshowuniquenessintheirshoppingbehavior

FMCGRegionalKPIsPerformance|MATDec‘23indexedvsLY>103<97

Vol/Trip

Units

Spend/TripFrequency

Total

Nairobi

Coast

Lake

Rift

Central

106

94

99

101

88

99

129

90

105

108

91

96

106

104

102

108

94

97

Vol/Trip

Units

Spend/TripFrequency

Total

ABC1

C2

DE

106

94

101

119

80

108

108

96

106

99

102

93

Source:WorldpanelbyKantar

18

4

Wherearetheyshopping?

Importantchannelsforconsumers

57.7

spendYoY%changeVolumeYoY%change

Kiosk/Duka

16%

11%11%

6%

1%

Keysupermkt

2%

-2%

Neighbohoodsupermkt

-3%

-3%

-8%-6%

-8%

Wholesale

20.3

14.1

4.5

4

OpenMarket

Intersupermkt

-39%-40%

TotalTrade

Key

supermkt

Inter

Supermkt

NeighborhdKiosk/Dukasupermkt

Wholesale

OpenMarket

ShoppersgetbetterdealsinKeysupermarketsmakingitattractiveandofgrowingimportanceforthem

FMCG|ChannelsKPIs|MAT2023FMCGSpend%

59.5

18.5

13.5

5.0

3.5

20222023

<=-3%loss>=3%growth

Source:WorldpanelbyKantar