暨南大学国际金融复习提纲

OutlineforReviewingInternationalFinance(2013)TheStructureofExaminationPaper1.MultipleChoice(30×1,30points)2.DefinitionofTerms(5×4,20points)3.ShortAnswer(3×10,30points)4.Calculation(2×10,20points)OutlineforReviewingMultipleChoiceCoverallChaptersDefinitionofTermChapter12:balanceofpaymentsaccounting,currentaccountbalance，officialsettlementsbalance，nationalsavingbalanceofpaymentsaccounting:Acountry’sbalanceofpaymentsaccountsaccountsforitspaymentstoanditsreceiptsfromforeigners.Aninternationaltransactioninvolvestwoparties,andeachtransactionenterstheaccountstwice:onceasacredit(+)andonceasadebit(-).Currentaccountbalance(exportsminusimports):netexpenditurebyforeignersondomesticgoodsandservices.Theofficialsettlementsbalance:isthenegativevalueofofficialinternationalreserveassets,anditshowsacentralbank’sholdingsofforeignassetsrelativetoforeigncentralbanks’holdingsofdomesticassets.Thebookkeepingoffsettothebalanceofofficialreservetransaction.Nationalsaving(S)=nationalincome(Y)thatisnotspentonconsumption(C)orgovernmentpurchases(G).Chapter13:appreciation,exchangerate,realrateofreturn,forwardexchangerate,spotexchangerate,interestparitycondition,vehiclecurrencyAppreciationisanincreaseinthevalueofacurrencyrelativetoanothercurrency.Exchangerate:Thepriceofonecurrencyintermsofanotheriscalledanexchangerate.Therealrateofreturn:Theexpectedrateofreturnthatsaversconsiderindecidingwhichassetstoholdistheexpectedrealrateofreturn,thatis,therateofreturncomputedbymeasuringassetvaluesintermsofsomebroadrepresentativeofproductsthatsaversregularlypurchase.forwardexchangerates:Foreignexchangedealssometimesspecifyavaluedatefartherawaythantwodays?30days,90days,180days,orevenseveralyears.Theexchangeratesquotedinsuchtrans-actionsarecalledforwardexchangerates.Theforeignexchangetransactionswehavebeendiscussingtakeplaceonthespot:twopar-tiesagreetoanexchangeofbankdepositsandexecutethedealimmediately.Exchangeratesgoverningsuch"on-the-spot"tradingarecalledspotexchangerates,andthedealiscalledaspottransaction.Interestparitycondition:Theconditionthattheexpectedreturnsondepositsofanytwocurrenciesareequalwhenmeasuredinthesamecurrencyiscalledtheinterestparitycondition.vehiclecurrency:Becauseofitspivotalroleinsomanyforeignexchangedeals,thedollarissometimescalledavehiclecurrencyChapter14:aggregatemoneydemand,moneysupply,exchangerateovershooting,Aggregatemoneydemand:aggregatemoneydemandisthetotaldemandformoneybyallhouseholdsandfirmsintheeconomy.isjustthesumofalltheeconomy’sindividualmoneydemands.Moneysupply:thetotalstockofmoneyintheeconomy;currencyheldbythepublicplusmoneyinaccountsinbanksExchangerateovershooting:theexchangerateissaidtoovershootwhenitsimmediateresponsetoadisturbanceisgreaterthanitslong-runresponse.Chapter15:Fishereffect,lawofoneprice,nominalinterestrate,purchasingpowerparity(PPP),realexchangerate,relativePPPFishereffect:allelseequal,ariseinacountry’sexpectedinflationratewilleventuallycauseanequalriseintheinterestratethatdepositsofitscurrencyoffer.similarly,afallintheexpectedinflationratewilleventuallycauseafallintheinterestrate.thislong-runrelationshipbetweeninflationandinterestratesiscalledthefishereffect.Lawofoneprice:thelowofonepricestatesthatincompetitivemarketsfreeoftransportationcostsandofficialbarrierstotrade(suchastariffs),identicalgoodssoldindifferentcountriesmustsellforthesamepricewhentheirpricesareexpressedintermsofthesamecurrency.Nominalinterestrate:whenwewishtodifferentiatearealexchangerate,whichistherelativepriceoftwooutputbaskets,fromarelativepriceoftwocurrencies,wewillrefertothelatterasanominalexchangerate.Purchasingpowerparity(PPP):thetheoryofpurchasingpowerparitystatesthattheexchangeratebetweentwocountries’currenciesequalstheratioofthecountries’pricelevels.Realexchangerate:therealexchangeratebetweentwocountries’currenciesisabroadsummarymeasureofthepricesofonecountry’sgoodsandservicesrelativetotheother’s.RelativePPP:statesthatthepercentagechangeintheexchangeratebetweentwocurrenciesoveranyperiodequalsthedifferencebetweenthepercentagechangesinnationalpricelevels.Chapter16:AAschedule,inflationbias,aggregatedemand,J-curve,DDschedule,pass-throughAAschedule:ThescheduleofexchangerateandoutputcombinationsthatareconsistentwithequilibriuminthedomesticmoneymarketandtheforeignexchangemarketiscalledtheAAschedule.inflationbias:Referstothedifferencebetweenthemeanvalueandthetargetvalueofinflationaccordingtothecirculationbythebasicmodel.Aggregatedemand:Theamountofacountry’sgoodsandservicesdemandedbyhouseholdsandfirmsthroughouttheworld.J-curve:Ifthecurrentaccountinitiallyworsensafteradepreciation,itstimepathhasaninitialsegmentreminiscentofaJandthereforeiscalledtheJ-curve.DDschedule:Thecurveshowsallcombinationsofoutputandtheexchangerateforwhichtheoutputmarketisinshortrunequilibrium.pass-through:Thepercentagefromtheexchangeratetoimportpricesbywhichimportpricesrisewhenthehomecurrencydepreciatesby1percent.Chapter17:balanceofpaymentscrisis,bimetallicstandard,capitalflight,devaluation,goldexchangestandard,goldstandard,imperfectassetsubstitutability,managedfloatingexchangerates,perfectassetsubstitutability,reservecurrency,revaluation,riskpremium,self-fulfillingcurrencycrises,sterilizedforeignexchangeintervention,balanceofpaymentscrisis:Whenacentralbankdoesnothaveenoughofficialinternationalreserveassetstomaintainafixedexchangerate,abalanceofpaymentscrisisresults.bimetallicstandard:thevalueofcurrencyisbasedonbothsilverandgold.capitalflight:financialcapitalisquicklymovedfromdomesticassetstoforeignassetsdevaluation:adevaluationoccurswhenthecentralbankraisesthedomesticcurrencypriceofforeigncurrencygoldexchangestandard:halfwaybetweenthegoldstandardandapurereservecurrencystandardisthegoldexchangestandardgoldstandard:goldactsasofficialinternationalreservesthatallcountriesusetomakeofficialinternationalpayments.imperfectassetsubstitutability:Ingeneral,foreignanddomesticassetsmaydifferintheamountofriskthattheycarry:theymaybeimperfectsubstitutes.managedfloatingexchangerates:systeminwhichgovernmentsmayattempttomoderateexchangeratemovementswithoutkeepingexchangeratesrigidlyfixed.perfectassetsubstitutability:thekeyfeatureofourmodelthatleadstotheseresultsistheassumptionthattheforeignexchangemarketisinequilibriumonlywhentheexpectedreturnsondomesticandforeigncurrencybondsarethesame.reservecurrency:onecurrencyactsasofficialinternationalreserves.Revaluation:arevaluationoccurswhenthecentralbanklowerthedomesticcurrencypriceofforeigncurrencyriskpremium:defaultriskandexchangerateriskself-fulfillingcurrencycrises:Expectationsofabalanceofpaymentscrisisonlyworsenthecrisisandhastendevaluationthatoccurinsuchcircumstancesoftenarecalledself-fulfillingcurrencycrises.sterilizedforeignexchangeintervention:centralbankssometimescarryourequalforeignanddomesticassettransactionsinoppositedirectionstonullifytheimpactoftheirforeignexchangeoperationsonthedomesticmoneysupply.thistypeofpolicyiscalledsterilizedforeignexchangeinterventionChapter18:externalbalance,internalbalance,expenditure-changingpolicy,price-specie-flowmechanism,expenditure-switchingpolicyexternalbalance:Acountry’scurrentaccountisneithersodeeplyindeficitthatthecountrymaybeunabletorepayitsforeigndebtsinthefuturenorsostronglyinsurplusthatforeignersareputinthatposition.Internalbalance:Thefullemploymentofacountry’sresourcesanddomesticpricelevelstability.expenditure-changingpolicy:Changingsocialneedsortotalexpenditurelevelofthenationaleconomypolicy,whosepurposeistochangeaggregatedemandtochangethedemandforforeigngoods,servicesandfinancialassets,andachievethebalanceofpaymentsadjustment.price-specie-flowmechanism:Undertheinternationallycommonpracticeofthegoldstandard,acountry'sinternationalbalanceofpaymentscankeepequilibriumautomaticallybythefluctuationsofcommoditypriceandtheoutputorinputofgold.expenditure-switchingpolicy:Thepolicieswhichcanaffecttheinternationalcompetitivenessofcommoditiesandtoincreasetheirincomerelativetospendingbychangingthespendingstructure.Chapter19:destabilizingspeculationdestabilizingspeculation：itmeansthatifforeignexchangetraderssawthatacurrencywasdepreciating,itwasargued,theymightsellthecurrencyintheexpectationoffuturedepreciationregardlessofthecurrency‘slonger-termprospects;andasmoretradersjumpedonthebandwagonbysellingthecurrency,theexpectationsofdepreciationwouldberealized.Chapter20:monetaryefficiencygain,economicstabilityloss,optimumcurrencyareasmonetaryefficiencygain：themonetaryefficiencygainfromjoiningthefixedexchangeratesystemequalsthejoiner’ssavingfromavoidingtheuncertainty,confusion,andcalculationandtransactioncoststhatarisewhenexchangeratesfloat.economicstabilityloss：theextrainstabilitycausedbythefixedexchangerateistheeconomicstabilitylossoptimumcurrencyareas：fixedexchangeratesaremostappropriateforareascloselyintegratedthroughinternationaltradeandfactormovements.ShortAnswerChapter131.TheEffectofChangingInterestRatesontheCurrentExchangeRateAnincreaseintheinterestpaidondepositofacurrencycausesthatcurrencytoappreciateagainstforeigncurrencies.Ariseindollarinterestratescausesthedollartoappreciateagainsttheeuro.Ariseineurointerestratescausesthedollartodepreciateagainsttheeuro.2.TheEffectofChangingExpectationsontheCurrentExchangeRateAriseintheexpectedfutureexchangeratecausesariseinthecurrentexchangerate,similarly,afallintheexpectedfutureexchangeratecausesafallinthecurrentexchangerate.Chapter14theMoneySupplyandtheExchangeRateintheShortRunintheshortrun,thepricelevelandrealoutputaregiven.理解上面这个图是什么意思就OK。再分析M变化时ExchangeRate怎么变化。PermanentMoneySupplyChangesandtheExchangeRate.中文版教材357面，英文版教材87面，看懂并能描绘清楚〔a〕和〔b〕两幅图。Chapter151.TheRelationshipBetweenPPPandtheLawofOnePriceThelawofonepriceappliestoindividualcommodities,whilePPPappliestothegeneralpricelevel.Ifthelawofonepriceholdstrueforeverycommodity,PPPmustholdautomaticallyforthesamereferencebasketsacrosscountries.ProponentsofthePPPtheoryarguethatitsvaliditydoesnotrequirethelawofonepricetoholdexactly。2.TheFundamentalEquationoftheMonetaryApproachpredictsthatlevelsofaveragepricesacrosscountriesadjustsothatthequantityofrealmonetaryassetssuppliedwillequalthequantityofrealmonetaryassetsdemanded:PUS=MsUS/L(R$,YUS)PEU=MsEU/L(R€,YEU)3、ExplainingtheProblemswithPPPThefailureoftheempiricalevidencetosupportthePPPandthelawofonepriceisrelatedto:1)Tradebarriersandnontradables2)Departuresfromfreecompetition3)DifferencesinmeasuresofaveragepricesforbasketsofgoodsandservicesChapter161.TmporaryChangesinMonetaryandFiscalPolicyTwotypesofgovernmentpolicy:MonetarypolicyItworksthroughchangesinthemoneysupply.FiscalpolicyItworksthroughchangesingovernmentspendingortaxes.Temporarypolicyshiftsarethosethatthepublicexpectstobereversedinthenearfutureanddonotaffectthelong-runexpectedexchangerate.Assumethatpolicyshiftsdonotinfluencetheforeigninterestrateandtheforeignpricelevel.MonetaryPolicyAnincreaseinmoneysupply(i.e.,expansionarymonetarypolicy)raisestheeconomy’soutput.------Theincreaseinmoneysupplycreatesanexcesssupplyofmoney,whichlowersthehomeinterestrate.------Asaresult,thedomesticcurrencymustdepreciate(i.e.,homeproductsbecomecheaperrelativetoforeignproducts)andaggregatedemandincreases.Figure16-10:EffectsofaTemporaryIncreaseintheMoneySupplyFiscalPolicyAnincreaseingovernmentspending,acutintaxes,orsomecombinationofthetwo(i.e,expansionaryfiscalpolicy)raisesoutput.Theincreaseinoutputraisesthetransactionsdemandforrealmoneyholdings,whichinturnincreasesthehomeinterestrate.Asaresult,thedomesticcurrencymustappreciate.PoliciestoMaintainFullEmploymentTemporarydisturbancesthatleadtorecessioncanbeoffsetthroughexpansionarymonetaryorfiscalpolicies.Temporarydisturbancesthatleadtooveremploymentcanbeoffsetthroughcontractionarymonetaryorfiscalpolicies.PermanentShiftsinMonetaryandFiscalPolicyApermanentpolicyshiftaffectsnotonlythecurrentvalueofthegovernment’spolicyinstrumentbutalsothelong-runexchangerate.Thisaffectsexpectationsaboutfutureexchangerates.------APermanentIncreaseintheMoneySupplyApermanentincreaseinthemoneysupplycausestheexpectedfutureexchangeratetoriseproportionally.Asaresult,theupwardshiftintheAAscheduleisgreaterthanthatcausedbyanequal,buttransitory,increase(comparepoint2withpoint3inFigure16-14).AdjustmenttoaPermanentIncreaseintheMoneySupplyThepermanentincreaseinthemoneysupplyraisesoutputaboveitsfull-employmentlevel.Asaresult,thepricelevelincreasestobringtheeconomybacktofullemployment.Figure16-15showstheadjustmentbacktofullemployment.------APermanentFiscalExpansionApermanentfiscalexpansionchangesthelong-runexpectedexchangerate.Iftheeconomystartsatlong-runequilibrium,apermanentchangeinfiscalpolicyhasnoeffectonoutput.Itcausesanimmediateandpermanentexchangeratejumpthatoffsetsexactlythefiscalpolicy’sdirecteffectonaggregatedemand.Atemporaryincreaseinthemoneysupplycausesadepreciationofthecurrencyandariseinoutput.Permanentshiftsinthemoneysupplycausesharperexchangeratemovementsandthereforehavestrongershort-runeffectsonoutputthantransitoryshiftsChapter171.StabilizationPolicieswithaFixedExchangeRateMonetaryPolicyUnderafixedexchangerate,centralbankmonetarypolicytoolsarepowerlesstoaffecttheeconomy’smoneysupplyoritsoutput.FiscalPolicy-Theriseinoutputduetoexpansionaryfiscalpolicyraisesmoneydemand.〔由财政扩张引起的产出增加增加货币需求〕-Topreventanincreaseinthehomeinterestrateandanappreciationofthecurrency,thecentralbankmustbuyforeignassetswithmoney,therebyincreasingthemoneysupply).ChangesintheExchangeRateDevaluation〔币值下调〕Itoccurswhenthecentralbankraisesthedomesticcurrencypriceofforeigncurrency,E.Itcauses:Ariseinoutput.Ariseinofficialreserves.AnexpansionofthemoneysupplyItischosenbygovernmentsto:Fightdomesticunemployment.Improvethecurrentaccount.Affectthecentralbank‘sforeignreservesRevaluation〔币值上调〕ItoccurswhenthecentralbanklowersE.Inordertodevalueorrevalue,thecentralbankhastoannounceitswillingnesstotradedomesticagainstforeigncurrency,inunlimitedamounts,atthenewexchangerate.AdjustmenttoFiscalPolicyandExchangeRateChanges1.FiscalexpansioncausesPtorise.〔财政扩张引起价格上涨〕1)Thereisnorealappreciationintheshort-run2)Thereisrealappreciationinthelong-run2.Devaluationisneutralinthelong-run.〔本币贬值长期效用为中性〕BenefitsandDrawbacksoftheGoldStandardBenefits:1)Itavoidstheasymmetryinherentinareservecurrencystandard.2)Itplacesconstraintsonthegrowthofcountries’moneysupplies.Drawbacks:Itplacesundesirableconstraintsontheuseofmonetarypolicytofightunemployment.Itensuresastableoverallpricelevelonlyiftherelativepriceofgoldandothergoodsandservicesisstable.Itmakescentralbankscompeteforreservesandbringaboutworldunemployment.Itcouldgivegoldproducingcountries(likeRussiaandSouthAfrica)toomuchpower.Chapter181.McroeconomicPolicyGoalsinanOpenEconomyInopeneconomies,policymakersaremotivatedbytwogoals:Internalbalance:FullemploymentandPricelevelstability.Underandoveremploymentleadtopricelevelmovementsthatreducetheeconomy’sefficiency.Toavoidprice-levelinstability,thegovernmentmust:Preventsubstantialmovementsinaggregatedemandrelativetoitsfull-employmentlevel.Ensurethatthedomesticmoneysupplydoesnotgrowtooquicklyortooslowly.Externalbalance:Theoptimallevel(最优水平)ofthecurrentaccount(Acurrentaccountlevelthatisneithersodeeplyindeficitthatthecountrymaybeunabletorepayitsdebtsnorsostronglyinsurplusthatforeignersareputinthatposition〕ProblemswithExcessiveCurrentAccountDeficits:Theysometimesrepresenttemporarilyhighconsumptionresultingfrommisguidedgovernmentpolicies.Theycanundermineforeigninvestors’confidenceandcontributetoalendingcrisis.ProblemswithExcessiveCurrentAccountSurpluses:-Theyimplylowerinvestmentindomesticplantandequipment.-Theycancreatepotentialproblemsforcreditors(债权人)tocollecttheirmoney.-Theymaybeinconvenientforpoliticalreasons.-Severalfactorsmightleadpolicymakerstopreferthatdomesticsavingbedevotedtohigherlevelsofdomesticinvestmentandlowerlevelsofforeigninvestment:ItmaybeeasiertotaxItmayreducedomesticunemployment.Itcanhavebeneficialtechnologicalspillovereffects2.AnalyzingPolicyOptionsundertheBrettonWoodsSystemAssumethat:R=R*Chapter191.TheCaseforFloatingExchangeRatesa.MonetaryPolicyAutonomyFloatingexchangeratescanrestoremonetarycontroltocentralbanksandalloweachcountrytochooseitsowndesiredlong-runinflationrate.b.SymmetryFloatingexchangeratesremovetwomainasymmetriesoftheBrettonWoodssystemandallowcentralbanksabroadtobeabletodeterminetheirowndomesticmoneysuppliesandtheU.S.tohavethesameopportunityasothercountriestoinfluenceitsexchangerateagainstforeigncurrencies.c.ExchangeRatesasAutomaticStabilizersFloatingexchangeratesquicklyeliminatethe“fundamentaldisequilibriums”thathadledtoparitychangesandspeculativeattacksunderfixedrates.TheCaseAgainstFloatingExchangeRatesa.DisciplineFloatingexchangeratesdonotprovidedisciplineforcentralbanks.Centralbanksmightembarkoninflationarypolicies(e.g.,theGermanhyperinflationofthe1920s).Thepro-floaters’responsewasthatafloatingexchangeratewouldbottleupinflationarydisturbanceswithinthecountrywhosegovernmentwasmisbehaving.b.DestabilizingSpeculationandMoneyMarketDisturbancesFloatingexchangeratesallowdestabilizingspeculation.Countriescanbecaughtina“viciouscircle”ofdepreciationandinflation.Advocatesoffloatingratespointoutthatdestabilizingspeculatorsultimatelylosemoney.Floatingexchangeratesmakeacountrymorevulnerabletomoneymarketdisturbances.c.InjurytoInternationalTradeandInvestmentFloatingrateshurtinternationaltradeandinvestmentbecausetheymakerelativeinternationalpricesmoreunpredictable.Exportersandimportersfacegreaterexchangerisk.Internationalinvestmentsfacegreateruncertaintyabouttheirpayoffs.Supportersoffloatingexchangeratesarguethatforwardmarketscanbeusedtoprotecttradersagainstforeignexchangerisk.Theskepticsrepliedtothisargumentbypointingoutthatforwardexchangemarketswouldbeexpensived.UncoordinatedEconomicPoliciesFloatingexchangeratesleavecountriesfreetoengageincompetitivecurrencydepreciations.Countriesmightadoptpolicieswithoutconsideringtheirpossiblebeggar-thy-neighboraspects.f.Uncoordinated