银行投资观察银行追求高质量发展意味着什么

目录索引一、期察银板调整，H股于A股 6二、资议银追高质发意着么 6三、块现：银板下跌周换率升 10四、股现银板调整 14五、向金：本银板块增高苏银（+0.32PCT） 19六、债现：本银转债均格涨0.50% 22七、利测踪：24业绩速期调 26八、险示 30图表索引图1：行块市数表现 7图2：行块现盘 7图3：板超收盘 8图4：板绝收况 8图5：2023Q4末募金持仓北持仓VS市场跌（%） 9图6：银行板块、全A非金融石油石化指数表现 10图7：银行板块、全A非金融石油石化区间换手率（周） 11图8：盈：行 13图9：相对市盈率：银行/全A非金融石油石化 13图10：净：行 13图11：相对市净率：银行/全A非金融石油石化 13图12：息：行 13图13：相对股息率：银行/全A非金融石油石化 13图14：向金有板块值比 19图15：行债对与相收益 24图16：行债银块、转指累收率 24图17：行债性一览至2024年4月12日） 24图18：行债位一览至2024年4月12日） 25图19：有行利速预（2024E） 29图20：有行收预测（2024E） 29图21：有行利速预（2024E） 29图22：有行收预测（2024E） 29图23：份净润预测（2024E） 29图24：份营增测（2024E） 29图25：商净润预测（2024E） 30图26：商营增测（2024E） 30图27：商净润预测（2024E） 30图28：商营增测（2024E） 30TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u表1：信级业涨跌情（） 表2：信级业换手情（） 12表3：市行间幅情（） 15表4：市行间率情（） 16表5：市行对/相估值股率所分情况 17表6：A+H上银行AH溢价及处位况 18表7：万级业资金股值比区变动况周） 20表8：市行向持股值比区变情况周） 21表9：行债键一览 22表10：行债间幅情（） 23表银转区换率情（） 23表12：A上银净润增预跟（2024E） 27表13：A上银营增速测踪（2024E） 28一、本期观察：银行板块调整，H股优于A股本期观察区间：20240408-20240412。本文数据来源于数据。板块表现方面（图6-13，表1-2）：本期（20240408-20240412），全A下跌2.7%，银行板块整体（中信一级行业）下跌0.6%，排在所有行业第5位，跑赢万得全A。国-0.83%-0.60%-1.26%。0.4%，H0.9%A（表1.30%1.15%等，跌幅前三为平安银行下跌3.82%、民生银行下跌2.98%、青农商行下跌2.92%。H股银行涨幅前三为广州农商银行上涨6.29%、浙商银行上涨3.77%、中国上涨2.28%，跌幅前三为郑州银行下跌2.70%、农业银行下跌1.48%、江西银行下跌1.28%。北向资金方面（图14，表7-8）：数据显示银行业北向资金持股占比为2.25%，较上期末减持0.9bp，板块获增最高为苏农银行。图转债06102065）等盈利预期方面（图19-28，表12-13）：根据数据，A股银行24年净利润增速、营收增速一致预期环比上期分别变动-0.24pct、-0.19pct。二、投资建议：银行追求高质量发展意味着什么近期，大行和股份行在业绩发布会中普遍提到未来会减少规模诉求，这意味着信用供给的低价低效部分减少，供求会保持相对平衡，行业整体贷款加权利率下行的速度会驱缓。另外，低价信用通过高信用大型企业传导到中小型银行的负债端的量会减少，这意味着中小银行获取廉价负债的量会被挤压，中小银行一般存款的获取难度会加大，追求过高规模增幅的中小银行平衡资产负债的难度也会加大，除非中小202383近期市场由于数据发布呈现了波动调整，银行股跑出了相对收益，但高股息已经渐显疲态，我们预计年内最好的银行绝对收益投资阶段已经过去，后续将会进入平淡期，建议投资者降低绝对收益预期，以仓位配置的眼光看待银行股投资。图1：银行板块和市场指数表现绝对收益行情区间表现(1.01-4.12)14.4%12.7%14.4%12.7%10.9%10.2%7.7%-4.6%-5.5%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%数据来源：，注：银行指数为行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行图2：银行板块表现复盘11月

相对收益 银行(申万1月--12.1412.1312.1212.09通胀数据..12.01《坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路》11.3011月PMI指数发布15.0%11.16中美元首会晤15.0%11.10鲍威尔“需要时继续加息”9.11社融超预期

-雪球敲入，两融强平1.2银行开门红1.5央行工作会议1.1212月金融数据理纳入考核，经营性物业贷款管理要求1.311月PMI指数发布2.91月社融超预期5年期LPR下调25BP23Q43.5两会政府工作报告发布3.7前2月出口超市场预期3.152月社融增速低于预期10.0%5.0%

9.14降准25BP9.21美联储议息会议0.0%10.11汇金增持四大行

10.169月金融数据10.18Q3经济数据10.241万亿特别国债10.31PMI数据

12.20LPR不变12.22

3.313月PMI超预期回升4.03中采回应“PMI季调因子或不准”3332023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04数据来源：，；注：银行指数为行业指数:银行图3：分板块超额收益复盘国有大行(相) 股份行(相对) 城商行(相对)农商行(农商行(相对)2月-5月：-中特估 银行(申万)6月-8月：-小市值城农商行高利润增速银行(相对)8月-12月：-高股息行情1月-：-险资举牌部分区域行30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%数据来源：，；银行指数为行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行图4：分板块绝对收益情况40.0%

国有大行(绝) 股份行(绝对) 城商行(绝对)农商行(绝对) 银行(申万) 高利润增银行(绝对)30.0%

2月-5月：-中特估

6月-8月：-小市值城农商行

8月-12月：-高股息行情

1月-：-险资举牌部分区域行20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%数据来源：，；银行指数为行业指数:银行，国有大行为中信行业指数:国有大型银行Ⅲ，股份行为中信行业指数:全国性股份制银行Ⅲ，城商行为中信行业指数:城商行，农商行为中信行业指数:农商行，高利润增速银行为净利润同比增速处于上市银行前1/5的银行图5：2023Q4末公募基金持仓+北向持仓VS本期市场涨跌幅（%）00沪农南京上海厦门银行10农业常熟招商宁波152025贵阳长沙光大浦发北京郑州瑞丰无锡苏州邮储青农民生重庆 渝农平安青岛紫金西安浙商华夏州业建设苏农中信4.003.002.00本期涨跌幅1.00本期涨跌幅0.00-1.00-2.00-3.00-4.00-5.00

基金+外资持股/自由流通股(%,2023Q4）数据来源：，三、板块表现：银行板块下跌，周度换手率上升涨跌幅：本期（2024/04/08-2024/04/12）银行（中信一级行业）板块整体下跌0.56%，在30个中信一级行业中排第5，跑赢全A（除金融、石油石化）指数约2.15个百分点。（0.34个百分点，在3030。估值：绝对估值方面，截至2024年04月12日，银行板块最新市盈率（TTM）5.22X，最新市净率（最新财报，下同）0.57X。相对估值方面（银行/全A（除金融、石油石化）指数），最新相对市盈率（TTM）为0.2，最新相对市净率为0.29，处在历史平均水平。图6：银行板块、全A非金融石油石化指数表现10,000

全A非金融、石油石化 银行 银行/全A非金融、石油石化（右轴）

2.009,000

1.808,0001.607,0006,000

1.401.205,0004,000

1.002016/02/052016/03/252016/02/052016/03/252016/05/132016/07/012016/08/192016/10/072016/11/252017/01/132017/03/032017/04/212017/06/092017/07/282017/09/152017/11/032017/12/222018/02/092018/03/302018/05/182018/07/062018/08/242018/10/122018/11/302019/01/182019/03/082019/04/262019/06/142019/08/022019/09/202019/11/082019/12/272020/02/142020/04/032020/05/222020/07/102020/08/282020/10/162020/12/042021/01/222021/03/122021/04/302021/06/182021/08/062021/09/242021/11/122021/12/312022/02/182022/04/082022/05/272022/07/152022/09/022022/10/212022/12/092023/01/272023/03/172023/05/052023/06/232023/08/112023/09/292023/11/172024/01/052024/02/232024/04/12数据来源：，图7：银行板块、全A非金融石油石化区间换手率（周）全A非金融、石油石化 银行（右轴）16.00% 12周期移动平均(全A非金融、石油石化) 12周期移动平均(银行（右轴）)

4.00%14.00% 3.50%12.00% 3.00%10.00%8.00%

2.50%7.59%2.00%6.00%4.00%

1.50%0.95%1.00%2.00% 0.50%2017/06/022017/07/212017/06/022017/07/212017/09/082017/10/272017/12/152018/02/022018/03/232018/05/112018/06/292018/08/172018/10/052018/11/232019/01/112019/03/012019/04/192019/06/072019/07/262019/09/132019/11/012019/12/202020/02/072020/03/272020/05/152020/07/032020/08/212020/10/092020/11/272021/01/152021/03/052021/04/232021/06/112021/07/302021/09/172021/11/052021/12/242022/02/112022/04/012022/05/202022/07/082022/08/262022/10/142022/12/022023/01/202023/03/102023/04/282023/06/162023/08/042023/09/222023/11/102023/12/292024/02/162024/04/05数据来源：，表1：中信一级行业区间涨跌幅情况（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以来电力及公用事业1.99%0.43%1.25%-0.27%-0.80%3.61%-0.94%6.98%有色金属1.87%6.68%3.72%-1.89%4.83%4.73%2.04%18.95%煤炭1.79%2.27%-0.76%0.45%-7.34%2.82%-1.16%14.75%钢铁-0.55%3.28%-0.02%-1.19%0.04%1.67%0.48%2.54%银行-0.56%0.54%0.97%0.07%-1.44%0.38%-2.33%10.75%汽车-0.74%0.74%-2.11%0.91%6.54%-0.53%4.78%0.38%石油石化-0.85%3.34%4.28%-0.47%-2.60%5.15%-0.76%14.80%交通运输-1.01%1.74%0.48%-0.65%1.78%-0.16%-1.51%3.66%纺织服装-1.27%2.49%-0.12%-1.11%2.57%1.46%0.60%-5.49%商贸零售-1.33%2.97%-1.97%0.34%2.74%-0.40%1.09%-4.76%通信-1.45%-1.79%-3.43%0.96%0.73%2.87%5.53%1.36%机械-1.80%0.41%-0.50%-0.19%1.40%1.78%5.16%-5.33%基础化工-1.92%4.22%-0.03%-1.14%3.16%-1.15%2.63%-5.85%消费者服务-2.10%0.43%-2.25%-0.64%6.13%-3.41%0.97%-5.92%家电-2.58%2.39%2.14%-1.93%-1.46%1.73%5.50%10.52%医药-3.08%0.41%-2.22%-2.19%4.62%-2.18%1.68%-14.21%综合金融-3.63%0.03%-5.67%-0.33%1.06%-3.15%3.58%-10.92%综合-3.66%1.72%-1.72%0.08%3.20%-2.84%1.07%-17.38%轻工制造-3.70%3.19%-1.24%0.74%4.57%-0.40%1.26%-6.95%电力设备及新能源-3.88%1.91%-1.25%-0.76%3.79%1.18%4.06%-4.33%传媒-3.89%-1.68%-9.19%8.92%3.19%-2.32%3.51%-7.45%建材-3.91%2.76%-0.39%-2.38%2.86%-1.33%0.60%-6.70%电子-4.18%-0.30%-4.14%1.48%0.95%-0.17%7.02%-14.20%计算机-4.22%-2.73%-7.03%3.51%2.07%-1.07%8.14%-15.03%建筑-4.56%1.34%0.05%-0.23%0.73%0.23%-0.05%-3.82%国防军工-4.88%-2.22%-1.03%1.00%2.73%-0.33%5.35%-14.14%食品饮料-5.61%1.28%-0.55%-0.87%5.01%-1.80%-0.74%-5.45%非银行金融-5.71%0.18%-2.37%-1.47%-0.19%-2.38%0.39%-8.63%农林牧渔-6.12%3.37%-0.23%4.51%-0.15%-0.33%-0.36%-8.45%房地产-7.27%-1.32%-1.91%-1.34%4.37%-3.93%-0.55%-17.04%数据来源：，表2：中信一级行业区间换手率情况（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以来有色金属17.16%8.42%7.99%9.63%9.47%7.92%6.30%102.91%消费者服务16.68%8.29%14.84%19.71%16.14%16.38%18.70%211.14%传媒10.88%8.52%19.16%24.49%17.46%16.54%21.42%211.49%综合10.35%5.99%8.47%8.27%6.99%6.40%10.41%119.21%计算机9.97%7.48%17.02%18.61%17.01%16.72%20.21%184.43%机械9.90%6.61%10.95%12.28%12.55%13.06%14.65%139.40%基础化工9.44%6.54%8.41%8.40%7.74%6.96%8.90%104.42%汽车9.00%6.90%11.29%12.80%12.84%9.84%12.96%127.52%轻工制造9.00%5.69%9.55%8.81%8.41%7.76%10.65%117.39%农林牧渔8.91%5.80%8.91%11.44%6.59%6.65%9.56%104.05%电子8.70%7.43%11.39%12.30%11.05%12.74%13.40%134.08%通信8.67%6.40%12.32%12.77%12.81%13.82%16.11%145.25%电力设备及新能源7.82%5.42%7.78%9.00%9.68%8.99%10.34%115.26%商贸零售7.63%4.31%5.64%6.56%6.06%6.54%8.39%97.69%纺织服装7.26%5.50%7.73%8.35%8.66%8.53%10.67%126.24%家电6.82%5.19%9.01%10.67%9.46%10.42%10.36%109.61%建材6.59%4.48%6.75%7.49%8.19%7.84%9.72%112.22%国防军工5.90%5.03%8.18%8.66%7.79%6.71%8.18%87.21%食品饮料5.90%3.63%5.54%6.09%6.33%5.01%6.61%80.08%医药5.87%3.99%6.80%8.32%8.12%6.88%8.54%94.67%房地产5.72%4.32%7.60%6.53%8.27%6.88%8.64%99.65%电力及公用事业5.40%2.71%3.99%4.13%4.75%4.51%4.86%59.46%煤炭5.34%3.02%4.33%5.55%5.56%5.46%5.82%69.36%综合金融5.18%3.47%8.57%10.22%10.33%12.26%21.58%164.65%钢铁5.10%2.97%3.19%4.83%3.98%3.79%4.00%51.26%建筑5.04%3.75%5.60%6.30%6.56%6.15%7.29%87.31%交通运输3.10%2.10%2.60%2.75%3.03%2.79%3.54%42.01%非银行金融2.81%2.06%3.39%4.36%3.75%3.97%6.47%56.35%石油石化1.98%1.41%1.76%1.61%1.71%1.77%1.82%24.42%银行0.95%0.61%1.17%0.89%1.01%1.05%1.20%16.15%数据来源：，3.006.50%5.50%4.50%3.50%2.50%1.50%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心识别风险，发现价值3.006.50%5.50%4.50%3.50%2.50%1.50%数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心识别风险，发现价值 13/32 13/32

数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图12：股息率：银行均值均值-1倍标准差数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图12：股息率：银行均值均值-1倍标准差1%分位均值+1均值+1倍标准差99%分位

2017/069.008.007.00 6.005.004.003.00数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图10：市净率：银行9.005.009.008.007.00 6.005.004.003.00数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图10：市净率：银行9.005.002017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/09银行(银行(中信)均值均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差99%分位2020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/036.506.005.505.004.504.003.506.506.005.505.004.504.003.503.002.502.001.50 数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心请务必阅读末页的免责声明请务必阅读末页的免责声明

0.500.450.40 0.350.300.500.450.40 0.350.300.25 0.200.15数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心13：相对股息率：银行/Wind全A非金融石油石化均值均值-1倍标准差 1%分位均值+1均值+1倍标准差99%分位

7.00 图7.00 图 0.400.350.300.250.200.15 0.10数据来源：0.400.350.300.250.200.15 0.10数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心图11：相对市净率：银行/Wind全A非金融石油石化2017/122018/032018/062018/09均值均值均值均值-1倍标准差1%分位2019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/12均值+1均值+1倍标准差99%分位2022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03投资策略周报|银行图9：相对市盈率：银行/Wind全A非金融石油石化图8：市盈率：银行均值+1倍标准差99%分位均值投资策略周报|银行图9：相对市盈率：银行/Wind全A非金融石油石化图8：市盈率：银行均值+1倍标准差99%分位均值均值+1倍标准差均值-1倍标准差99%分位1%分位均值均值-1倍标准差1%分位四、个股表现：银行板块调整+1.30%+1.15%0.00%-0.83%、-0.60%、-1.26%。6.40%6.06%5.77%。0.56%、1.41%、2.21%、3.98%，交易活跃度较上一期均有所上升，农商行整体交易活跃度更高。估值：国有大行、股份行、城商行、农商行（中信三级行业）最新市盈率（TTM）分0.58X0.52X0.60X0.55X，（T130409310103、0.911.060.96。表3：上市银行区间涨跌幅情况（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以来苏农银行1.30%2.00%0.00%0.89%-0.22%0.00%-1.75%12.02%建设银行1.15%1.16%0.15%0.44%-3.94%1.14%-2.23%7.99%交通银行0.61%2.68%1.60%0.81%-2.52%0.47%-2.62%14.11%兴业银行0.52%-2.34%-3.01%-0.73%-0.55%-0.60%-1.66%-4.44%华夏银行0.46%1.08%2.53%0.48%-1.56%0.79%-2.76%17.08%杭州银行0.27%1.89%2.59%-0.73%-2.15%1.36%-3.85%13.39%中国银行0.22%1.82%0.23%0.92%-4.40%1.56%-2.61%12.53%宁波银行-0.09%2.67%-0.48%-2.03%-1.03%-2.95%-3.55%5.22%南京银行-0.11%1.56%0.56%-0.89%0.00%3.21%-0.11%23.17%常熟银行-0.14%2.10%5.47%-1.02%-1.01%-0.58%-2.80%13.93%上海银行-0.15%1.04%1.20%0.45%-0.15%0.76%-1.20%13.57%工商银行-0.19%0.95%0.57%0.77%-3.34%0.94%-2.55%11.30%成都银行-0.22%1.18%4.53%-1.21%-2.52%2.82%-4.09%21.94%农业银行-0.23%1.42%1.20%0.48%-2.58%0.71%-0.47%17.58%江苏银行-0.25%0.25%2.73%0.00%-0.77%1.84%-3.06%18.09%招商银行-0.34%0.09%3.21%0.06%-1.55%-0.85%-3.07%15.46%厦门银行-0.38%2.11%0.00%-0.38%-0.95%-0.56%-0.56%4.73%张家港行-0.50%1.51%0.00%-1.00%-0.50%-0.74%-2.17%3.35%江阴银行-0.52%4.05%0.54%-0.27%-1.07%0.27%-2.87%7.89%沪农商行-0.58%1.77%1.80%4.56%-1.40%0.94%-1.84%19.34%齐鲁银行-0.67%3.73%0.94%-0.93%-1.15%0.23%-2.04%13.04%青岛银行-0.90%2.79%0.31%-0.31%-1.52%0.61%-1.51%7.87%贵阳银行-0.91%1.67%0.56%-0.92%-0.92%-0.36%-2.66%5.64%长沙银行-1.01%1.81%1.17%-0.78%-0.52%0.78%-1.91%14.52%紫金银行-1.15%1.96%-0.78%-0.77%-0.77%-1.88%-1.12%1.58%西安银行-1.16%2.06%-1.74%-1.15%0.29%-0.57%-1.13%2.70%兰州银行-1.20%0.81%-2.75%-1.54%0.78%-3.75%-0.37%-5.00%光大银行-1.31%-1.92%-4.88%-0.30%1.23%0.93%-1.83%4.14%浦发银行-1.38%1.40%1.28%-0.71%-0.42%0.14%-2.34%7.70%北京银行-1.58%0.53%0.18%3.48%0.18%4.81%-2.44%23.62%浙商银行-1.67%0.33%1.36%3.87%1.43%0.36%-1.06%17.06%郑州银行-2.04%0.51%-3.47%-1.46%-0.49%-1.44%-0.48%-4.48%苏州银行-2.10%-0.14%3.47%-1.56%-1.40%1.57%-4.23%8.36%瑞丰银行-2.20%1.01%-1.39%-1.37%0.59%-2.31%0.00%-1.01%无锡银行-2.33%0.19%0.59%-0.20%-0.19%-1.16%-2.08%-0.40%邮储银行-2.34%-0.84%0.21%0.00%-2.47%0.41%-3.01%5.75%渝农商行-2.78%0.43%3.79%-0.22%-2.60%3.13%-1.10%11.52%重庆银行-2.79%2.31%2.22%0.00%-0.69%0.42%-1.90%5.17%青农商行-2.92%1.48%1.12%-1.84%-1.09%0.36%-1.79%1.53%民生银行-2.98%-0.49%2.27%-0.75%-1.97%0.25%-1.69%4.55%平安银行-3.82%-0.57%1.54%-2.26%2.12%-1.05%-3.32%7.14%广州农商银行H6.29%-0.63%-3.03%16.20%0.71%-6.00%-6.25%-23.18%浙商银行H3.77%-7.42%3.15%0.00%1.83%0.46%-0.46%8.91%中国光大银行H2.28%-2.67%-12.79%1.98%0.00%2.85%-2.38%-3.45%招商银行H2.27%-0.16%2.48%-0.33%2.19%-2.31%-4.56%16.18%交通银行H1.37%-0.58%-2.10%1.55%-0.96%0.77%-0.96%6.37%中国银行H0.93%0.31%-0.92%1.56%1.26%2.92%-2.53%9.73%重庆农村商业银行H0.92%0.31%-0.31%0.00%-0.61%2.19%-1.54%8.25%工商银行H0.50%0.76%-0.51%-0.50%-1.73%0.00%-2.17%4.45%重庆银行H0.22%3.48%1.17%-0.23%-0.93%0.47%-0.69%12.88%渤海银行H0.00%-1.96%-3.77%-0.93%-4.46%0.00%1.82%-11.50%建设银行H-0.21%1.91%-1.67%0.42%-1.65%-0.41%-2.01%3.23%民生银行H-0.36%1.11%-0.73%1.11%-2.17%-1.08%-1.41%3.02%青岛银行H-0.96%0.48%0.00%1.47%-0.97%0.49%-2.84%7.29%邮储银行H-1.04%-5.62%0.99%-0.98%-2.39%0.72%-1.89%2.41%江西银行H-1.28%11.43%-1.41%1.43%0.00%1.45%0.00%6.94%农业银行H-1.48%2.42%0.00%2.48%-1.83%1.55%-2.42%10.63%郑州银行H-2.70%-8.64%-2.41%-1.19%1.20%-1.19%-1.18%-13.25%数据来源：，表4：上市银行区间换手率情况（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以来苏农银行6.40%4.42%7.03%5.57%5.30%5.27%7.24%103.13%瑞丰银行6.06%4.55%9.30%7.45%9.20%11.36%16.12%225.21%厦门银行5.77%3.40%5.29%3.90%4.27%6.04%9.12%84.54%紫金银行5.51%3.65%5.82%5.17%5.09%5.52%8.10%94.30%江阴银行4.76%5.66%5.17%4.19%3.45%4.64%6.01%76.15%无锡银行4.47%3.04%4.44%3.29%3.74%5.09%4.89%71.71%张家港行4.47%3.42%4.62% 4.07% 3.72%4.82%6.62%77.75%齐鲁银行4.46%3.62%5.53%4.43%5.15%7.65%9.69%112.48%兰州银行4.30%3.06%6.69%6.37%6.14%8.46%13.52%108.30%青岛银行4.08%2.90%4.03%2.63%2.94%3.60%4.45%58.03%苏州银行4.07%2.25%4.53%2.62%3.61%5.18%5.97%71.44%贵阳银行4.04%2.45%4.61%3.66%3.96%4.16%5.83%68.39%建设银行3.88%2.01%5.33%5.32%4.72%3.91%4.91%64.53%常熟银行3.87%4.03%7.16%4.88%5.05%4.27%4.78%71.34%渝农商行3.86%2.10%5.17%2.77%4.53%3.35%4.03%54.39%青农商行3.35%2.00%3.77%3.15%3.10%4.43%5.10%63.62%重庆银行3.28%1.81%2.57%1.46%2.03%1.96%2.79%56.05%郑州银行2.82%1.88%3.96%3.26%2.75%3.55%4.75%53.83%宁波银行2.78%2.19%2.65%2.38%2.88%2.77%2.77%44.45%平安银行2.74%1.68%3.17%2.95%5.04%4.10%5.98%54.66%浙商银行2.68%1.85%3.51%2.89%2.72%2.06%2.44%43.28%江苏银行2.40%1.49%2.97%2.40%2.66%2.97%3.30%46.87%西安银行2.22%1.37%2.21%2.09%2.56%2.91%7.50%49.08%成都银行1.95%1.02%3.07%2.03%2.39%2.90%2.91%43.85%长沙银行1.77%1.07%2.37%1.83%2.27%2.12%2.26%33.30%沪农商行1.76%1.73%3.38%3.03%2.44%2.34%2.95%48.32%光大银行1.72%1.56%3.05%1.33%1.60%1.31%1.54%25.15%杭州银行1.65%1.14%2.05%1.38%1.81%2.70%2.80%32.08%兴业银行1.56%1.41%1.64%0.85%1.10%1.20%1.54%21.58%北京银行1.44%0.76%1.45%1.63%1.91%1.80%2.07%27.17%民生银行1.25%0.79%1.60%0.92%1.04%1.15%1.31%19.40%交通银行1.20%0.85%1.79%1.06%1.15%1.34%1.49%22.76%招商银行1.11%0.78%1.80%1.31%1.46%1.44%1.37%23.45%上海银行1.07%0.60%1.24%0.95%1.10%1.05%1.34%17.53%南京银行1.06%0.55%1.06%0.87%1.39%1.54%1.46%19.99%华夏银行1.01%0.62%1.28%0.88%1.03%1.15%1.65%18.87%邮储银行0.95%0.52%0.85%0.61%0.68%0.89%0.86%12.48%农业银行0.50%0.27%0.63%0.50%0.52%0.59%0.56%8.14%工商银行0.49%0.27%0.52%0.41%0.56%0.59%0.57%7.72%浦发银行0.46%0.33%0.53%0.50%0.44%0.48%0.57%8.69%中国银行0.36%0.21%0.41%0.39%0.43%0.39%0.47%6.55%郑州银行H2.95%2.12%2.16%1.32%2.17%1.30%1.70%26.59%招商银行H2.29%1.04%2.25%1.72%2.33%2.03%2.05%37.91%中国银行H2.08%1.10%1.63%2.48%2.45%1.94%1.58%23.79%重庆农村商业银行H1.74%1.10%1.21%1.33%2.61%1.88%1.55%22.56%农业银行H1.58%1.05%1.51%1.56%1.89%1.78%2.21%25.13%浙商银行H1.32%2.25%1.70%0.61%2.84%0.47%0.46%14.99%邮储银行H1.30%1.04%0.56%0.64%0.74%0.82%1.14%14.22%工商银行H1.19%0.73%1.06%1.31%1.65%1.36%1.26%17.90%民生银行H0.63%0.43%0.58%0.65%1.19%0.90%1.00%10.62%建设银行H0.60%0.39%0.50%0.63%0.68%0.61%0.66%9.05%中国光大银行H0.50%0.69%1.29%0.37%0.49%0.63%0.64%7.58%重庆银行H0.46%0.57%0.60%0.36%0.47%0.55%0.53%6.98%青岛银行H0.33%0.39%0.33%0.33%0.48%0.51%0.74%8.25%交通银行H0.31%0.22%0.31%0.24%0.35%0.27%0.27%3.92%江西银行H0.30%0.18%0.26%0.13%0.04%0.09%0.23%2.02%渤海银行H0.14%0.14%0.11%0.07%0.12%0.07%0.13%2.22%广州农商银行H0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.03%0.01%0.00%0.12%数据来源：，表5：上市银行绝对/相对估值、股息率及所处分位情况单家银行（PE、PB单位：倍） 单家银行/银行板块（PE、PB单位：倍）PE所处分位PB所处分位股息率所处分位PE所处分位PB分位股息分位工商银行5.2131.90%0.5619.80%5.70%31.90%1.0067.80%0.9852.20%1.089.10%建设银行5.2833.80%0.6021.60%5.53%33.80%1.0164.50%1.0563.50%1.0412.40%农业银行5.5643.00%0.6238.30%5.19%43.00%1.0699.40%1.0999.10%0.983.30%中国银行5.7052.40%0.5942.30%5.17%52.40%1.0995.70%1.0496.90%0.976.70%邮储银行5.2920.80%0.586.30%5.61%20.80%1.0144.80%1.0245.50%1.0697.70%交通银行5.2550.30%0.5344.90%5.69%50.30%1.0088.30%0.9499.50%1.077.60%招商银行5.535.70%0.874.90%5.41%5.70%1.062.30%1.5423.10%1.0296.40%兴业银行4.1719.00% 0.453.00%7.67%19.00%0.8011.80%0.800.20%1.4599.00%浦发银行5.7058.60%0.344.30%4.49%58.60%1.0995.10%0.601.50%0.85 59.20%民生银行4.7820.50%0.3213.60%5.47%20.50%0.9151.60%0.5716.70%1.0349.20%光大银行4.3729.20%0.404.30%6.29%29.20%0.8434.90% 0.700.00%1.1963.50%平安银行4.204.40%0.492.60%2.83%4.40%0.802.40%0.852.20%0.5399.00%华夏银行3.9732.40%0.3827.30%5.82%32.40%0.7650.40%0.6651.50%1.1071.80%浙商银行5.3842.40%0.5033.50%5.52%42.40%1.0358.60%0.8861.00%1.0475.10%北京银行4.6232.30%0.4832.20%5.54%32.30%0.8860.20%0.8460.90%1.0429.20%江苏银行4.7528.50%0.7042.00%5.25%28.50%0.9148.30%1.2379.10%0.9964.40%宁波银行5.472.20%0.792.10%2.36%2.20%1.050.40%1.391.00%0.4565.80%南京银行5.0211.30%0.709.70%5.87%11.30%0.9632.70%1.2343.60% 69.60%杭州银行4.686.00%0.725.10% 3.52%6.00%0.907.70%1.2844.60%0.6671.70%成都银行4.579.30%0.8519.20%5.59%9.30%0.8832.40%1.5069.60%1.0587.90%长沙银行4.21 13.40%0.5212.90%4.48%13.40% 0.8131.90%0.92 34.90%0.8476.10%重庆银行5.16 23.30% 0.52 7.40% 5.40% 23.30% 0.9960.10%0.9261.20%1.0296.80%贵阳银行3.3211.30%0.36 5.10% 5.52%11.30%0.642.70%0.645.30%1.0495.40%郑州银行9.44 75.20%0.410.20%0.00%75.20% 1.8191.60%0.72 30.40%0.00 0.00%青岛银行5.407.20%0.597.00%4.86%7.20%1.0334.30%1.0336.20%0.9288.50%苏州银行5.607.20%0.678.60%4.71%7.20%1.0741.10%1.1958.30%0.8995.30%齐鲁银行5.0526.10%0.5915.00%3.99%26.10%0.9767.10%1.0566.50%0.7581.80%兰州银行7.560.30%0.500.30%4.86%0.30%1.4571.60%0.8972.20%0.9299.80%西安银行5.9612.10%0.503.70%4.82%12.10%1.1434.90%0.8836.40%0.9175.80%渝农商行4.7450.20%0.4549.50%5.96%50.20%0.9182.10%0.7984.80%1.1262.40%沪农商行5.3360.50%0.6060.90%4.99%60.50%1.0275.30%1.0687.80%0.9482.40%青农商行5.7620.00%0.453.40%0.00%20.00%1.1037.00% 0.7937.00%0.00 0.00%常熟银行6.084.80%0.814.60%3.43%4.80%1.165.40%1.4319.30%0.6570.50%紫金银行5.623.80%0.532.70%3.89%3.80%1.0832.80%0.93 34.40%0.7396.60%无锡银行5.024.40%0.591.30%3.90%4.40%0.963.80%1.035.30%0.7383.90%张家港行4.803.20%0.613.00%4.99%3.20%0.928.10%1.0810.60%0.9499.20%苏农银行4.948.10%0.559.50%3.65%8.10%0.958.50%0.9722.10%0.6988.00%江阴银行4.997.20%0.574.10%4.15%7.20%0.964.50%1.006.50%0.7861.00%瑞丰银行5.570.40%0.580.20%2.35%0.40%1.0764.30%1.0264.80%0.4491.90%工商银行H3.6914.60% 0.388.90%8.25%14.60%0.713.20%0.6711.30%1.5684.60%建设银行H3.3211.10%0.377.00%8.79%11.10%0.642.10%0.652.40%1.6692.20%农业银行H4.1738.00%0.4434.60%7.24%38.00%0.8065.50%0.7766.00% 1.36 9.40%中国银行H4.0336.20%0.3928.10%7.70%36.20%0.7759.40%0.6959.60%1.4526.00%邮储银行H4.244.50%0.443.30%7.32%4.50%0.815.00%0.7712.20%1.3896.70%交通银行H4.0937.00%0.3820.80%7.87%37.00%0.7862.40%0.6764.60%1.4829.70%招商银行H5.086.10%0.784.30%5.98%6.10%0.973.70%1.3720.20%1.1391.70%民生银行H3.4412.70%0.2011.20%8.64%12.70%0.6636.20%0.3612.20%1.6354.70%中国光大银行H3.3329.30%0.27 3.20% 9.28%29.30%0.6434.40%0.474.50%1.7577.50%浙商银行H3.893.70%0.347.70%8.35%3.70%0.740.50%0.605.50%1.5789.80%渤海银行H3.9049.00%0.175.60%0.00%49.00%0.7570.40%0.3059.10%0.000.00%重庆银行H2.9829.50%0.2822.30%9.67%29.50%0.5752.90%0.5043.20%1.8266.00%郑州银行H4.3331.00%0.140.20% 0.00%31.00%0.8370.20%0.250.20% 0.00 0.00%青岛银行H3.280.10%0.332.40%8.60%0.10%0.630.20%0.590.50%1.6297.80%江西银行H6.23 37.40%0.118.00%7.20%37.40% 1.1955.10%0.1930.90%1.3695.30%重庆农村商业银行H3.1731.20%0.2930.40%9.20%31.20%0.6157.00%0.5146.70%1.7357.80%数据来源：，表6：A+H上市银行AH溢价率及所处分位情况所处分位2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初交通银行98.60%98.90%47.25%48.14%47.82%46.02%44.27%46.63%45.26%38.08%61.74%59.43%60.55%57.41%57.48%61.18%58.70%54.49%96.20%41.94%40.05%41.40%39.51%42.38%43.43%44.61%33.44%94.20%51.64%52.57%50.27%48.32%49.35%58.14%60.24%47.75%83.30%32.99%34.64%28.11%28.91%27.73%27.79%28.17%28.69%97.10%39.64%40.57%36.06%30.91%31.95%34.02%34.41%30.06%浙商银行80.60%12.25%15.09%14.76%13.79%13.41%17.68%15.94%12.86%88.30%58.17%62.29%64.85%59.77%62.87%62.47%60.31%55.74%89.20%48.89%54.17%52.96%40.03%43.32%41.53%44.20%37.94%37.66%99.20%48.08%56.14%44.03%46.36%40.99%41.51%41.64%重庆银行0.10%80.85%86.29%88.37%86.16%85.84%85.33%85.41%93.95%99.90%194.50%192.25%165.56%168.06%168.97%173.45%174.10%167.23%95.60%76.38%76.12%72.12%71.33%74.50%75.42%75.19%75.29%渝农商行35.70%53.20%58.89%58.65%52.17%52.60%55.66%54.23%48.59%数据来源：，五、北向资金：本期银行板块获增较高为苏农银行（+0.32PCT）数据显示截至2024年04月12日，北向资金银行业持股占比为2.25%，较上期末（2024/04/03）减持0.88bp。板块内部来看，北向资金持股比例最高的银行个股前三为建设银行（7.49%）、江苏银行（6.01%）、（5.63%）。本期增持比例前三为苏农银行（0.32pct）、重庆银行（0.16pct）、沪农商行（0.16pct）；三季报披露以来增持比例前三为苏农银行（1.90pct）、江苏银行（1.74pct）、建设银行（1.38pct）。图14：北向资金持有银行板块市值占比北向资金持股银行

北向资金持股市值占流通市值比重(%) SW银行指数收盘价-右轴

4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,000数据来源：，表7：申万一级行业北向资金持股市值占比及区间变动情况（周）持股市值占总流2024/4/12通市值比重(%)区间增持比例(单位:BP)2024/4/122024/4/32024/3/282024/3/222024/3/152024/3/8近一年增持农林牧渔2.233.50-2.322.150.582.410.14-6.08化工2.412.554.874.44-5.501.85-2.9718.24钢铁2.20-0.686.58-2.82 -8.90 -5.501.78-22.46有色金属3.5514.91-10.177.95-3.79 15.54 0.47-13.61电子3.316.14-1.954.811.781.270.8347.01汽车3.844.594.787.11 -5.42 4.122.76130.74家用电器11.05-14.042.25 10.04 6.51-1.383.8320.59食品饮料5.24-4.27-3.884.140.385.282.77-43.35纺织服装1.814.25-0.922.26-3.914.043.0590.31轻工制造1.58-0.122.271.30-10.363.54-5.10-94.19医药生物3.28-1.84-2.40-0.44-9.18-0.39-1.16-55.98公用事业2.80-0.09 -4.77 0.791.37-6.195.4032.01交通运输2.26-2.42-1.24-2.71-3.797.96-1.14-24.96房地产1.26-3.65-3.64-0.32-3.219.82-6.73-57.47商贸零售2.17-24.12 -10.15 3.15-10.4428.58-11.05-280.90社会服务1.43-16.740.75-5.26-10.471.34-12.46-146.72 银行 2.25-0.88-1.97 5.38 -0.422.772.23-74.92非银金融2.20-3.75-0.12-0.790.501.76-1.53-62.63综合0.68-3.61-2.940.072.016.06-4.0168.42建筑材料3.77-14.473.284.64-20.5410.64-7.39-194.25建筑装饰2.01-2.81-0.296.30-4.08-1.632.1713.39电力设备5.482.71-0.416.045.74 16.94 1.65-68.51机械设备3.51-0.033.334.23-7.98-7.393.70-34.98国防军工1.13-2.940.682.71-0.85-0.460.074.73计算机1.88-4.21-2.83-0.95-6.31-2.50-9.88-99.47传媒2.80-0.625.15-1.96-2.93-4.51-8.77-57.64通信2.892.631.450.23-2.563.2611.6376.10煤炭2.09-1.44-3.45-2.52-4.904.442.89-46.50石油石化1.17-1.77-1.290.57 -0.02 2.330.58-14.93环保0.772.10 -0.12 -1.70-4.03-1.09-1.618.91美容护理4.6012.513.85-28.55-15.7710.56-43.25-195.42数据来源：，表8：上市银行北向资金持股市值占比及区间变动情况（周）2024/4/12 北向资金持股比例区间增持比例(单位:BP)2024/4/122024/4/32024/3/282024/3/222024/3/15三季报以来年初以来工商银行1.03%-1.00-1.001.00--1.0019.0020.00建设银行7.49%-3.00-2.00-12.00-9.001.00138.0082.00农业银行0.99%-3.00--1.003.00-1.0017.0014.00中国银行0.83%-3.00-1.001.001.0012.0013.00邮储银行1.26%-4.00-3.005.004.003.0039.0039.00交通银行3.57%-2.00-3.0010.005.002.0063.0091.00招商银行5.63%-4.00-14.00-4.00-4.0049.00兴业银行3.94%7.00-2.0011.002.004.0055.0096.00浦发银行2.38%--1.008.002.005.0026.0041.00民生银行2.70%-1.007.00-2.00-3.0066.0051.00光大银行2.30%--3.00-8.001.0012.0030.0067.00平安银行3.38%-8.12-3.429.28-23.2520.99-166.54-43.40华夏银行3.06%4.002.0011.00-1.00-1.00-42.00-21.00浙商银行2.17%-5.003.001.0013.003.0037.0060.00北京银行4.50%5.003.001.00-6.00-9.0036.0075.00江苏银行6.01%4.00 9.0017.00-1.00-3.00174.00230.00上海银行3.98%11.004.0010.004.002.0029.0052.00宁波银行3.98%-5.208.220.45-19.464.58-126.78-64.44南京银行2.21%9.001.005.00-5.007.0028.0036.00杭州银行2.76%11.004.0015.00-1.001.0080.0065.00成都银行4.19%2.002.0011.00-6.005.00-54.0042.00长沙银行2.50%9.002.003.00-6.006.00-14.0011.00重庆银行1.80%16.007.008.005.00-11.00-106.00-126.00贵阳银行3.92%7.009.002.00-13.00-15.00-67.0059.00郑州银行0.51%-2.78-4.052.18-7.39-0.22-18.39-10.76青岛银行1.25%5.252.092.409.12-23.16-81.080.95苏州银行2.31%8.97 3.2918.09-8.25-0.94-9.2461.55齐鲁银行3.85%6.007.00-6.00-13.00-165.00-26.00西安银行1.46%9.008.005.00-4.008.0029.0048.00厦门银行5.56%9.0013.0018.00-5.00-22.00-149.00-47.00兰州银行0.40%-3.841.24-7.14-4.005.05-7.02-23.21渝农商行4.26%-17.00-3.0023.005.00-28.00-66.00-6.00沪农商行5.48%16.001.0019.0020.003.0039.00135.00青农商行2.31%-2.309.759.77-5.96-8.3857.5471.72常熟银行3.35%3.0029.0038.00-56.00-30.00-62.009.00张家港行4.12%5.1613.163.66-6.294.8981.94151.58江阴银行4.15%-4.7711.2913.581.58-13.8365.8483.54无锡银行0.96%-19.00-2.006.00-1.00-5.00-61.0015.00紫金银行1.23%-4.0012.00-10.00-22.00-4.0011.0020.00瑞丰银行1.70%1.006.00-41.00-8.0030.00-125.00-46.00苏农银行3.72%32.0026.009.007.0015.00190.00196.00数据来源：，，注：持股比例分母为A股流通股，邮储银行2023年6月12日有558亿股限售股解禁六、转债表现：本期银行转债平均价格上涨0.50%0.160.56%+1.02%+0.65%6.03%3.77%。截至2024年04月1215121.0717.26%25.91%。表9：银行转债关键信息一览2024/4/12纯债溢转股溢平价底价溢价最新转债价格平价底价下修最大幅度触发强赎正股最新余额亿已转股剩余期最新转股价格价率(%)价率(%)(元)(元)比例(%)限(年)率(%)(元)()涨幅()元)(元)齐鲁转债5.2633.82-21.34107.7480.51102.3561.4766.0517.444.635.49常银转债16.8824.77-6.32116.0092.9899.2539.8260.000.004.437.83重银转债0.4851.19-33.54105.4069.71104.9086.48129.990.003.9510.50成银转债19.1514.843.75120.09104.57100.7924.3251.9735.043.8913.13兴业转债0.6657.80-36.21104.9566.51104.2695.46499.970.013.7123.29南银转债11.5614.88-2.89114.6299.78102.7530.29166.1716.923.179.11苏行转债14.3117.26-2.52121.07103.24105.9125.9149.990.013.006.78杭银转债9.0021.85-10.54112.9992.73103.6640.19149.990.012.9612.24上银转债0.3061.54-37.91111.4268.97111.0888.48199.980.012.799.83青农转债-0.0466.53-39.98104.9763.03105.02106.2450.000.012.374.22紫银转债0.4062.24-38.12108.3066.75107.8794.7545.000.012.283.85浦发转债-0.03103.19-50.80109.4253.85109.45141.40499.990.001.5413.24张行转债0.9317.30-13.95108.6392.61107.6240.3724.970.120.584.33苏农转债0.3018.55-15.40109.6192.46109.2940.6012.8948.460.315.04数据来源：，表10：银行转债区间涨跌幅情况（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以来齐鲁转债1.02%0.95%-0.11%0.84%-0.11%-0.22%0.36%7.38%常银转债0.65%0.30%0.58%-0.01%1.16%0.23%-1.03%6.62%紫银转债0.58%0.34%-0.10%0.15%-0.33%0.10%0.16%2.50%成银转债0.57%1.05%1.06%0.62%-1.19%0.09%-2.16%6.97%兴业转债0.56%0.19%-0.16%0.43%-0.35%0.31%0.02%2.98%杭银转债0.52%0.67%-0.25%0.90%-0.74%-0.02%-0.82%4.37%南银转债0.52%0.06%0.32%0.27%0.06%0.65%-0.97%8.12%上银转债0.47%0.00%0.09%0.27%-0.38%0.33%0.06%1.19%重银转债0.43%0.30%-0.28%0.40%-0.46%0.23%0.11%3.03%青农转债0.38%0.35%-0.38%0.38%-0.36%0.21%0.16%2.45%浦发转债0.32%0.07%0.06%0.18%-0.20%0.19%0.00%1.64%苏农转债0.19%0.13%0.02%0.13%-0.03%-0.06%-0.20%0.97%张行转债0.17%0.14%-0.30%0.11%-0.14%-0.35%-0.34%0.41%苏行转债-0.34%-0.79%2.36%0.16%-0.13%0.50%-1.11%4.19%数据来源：，表11：银行转债区间换手率情况（周）2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/82024/3/1年初以来苏农转债6.03%2.67%5.05%6.56%7.82%5.38%6.90%110.90%张行转债3.88%2.18%5.01%4.34%4.96%7.31%8.19%101.09%成银转债3.77%2.21%7.64%2.92%3.70%6.05%5.42%78.20%苏行转债3.33%1.60%6.93%3.86%4.96%4.12%6.64%82.81%齐鲁转债3.08%2.39%2.38%3.08%4.40%4.77%4.57%67.34%南银转债2.72%1.52%3.00%2.24%2.41%3.14%4.01%47.05%常银转债2.64%1.64%4.61%2.64%4.25%3.73%6.30%63.00%杭银转债2.41%1.22%2.67%2.80%2.10%2.64%3.09%47.81%青农转债2.40%1.50%4.67%2.93%1.37%3.96%4.03%51.81%重银转债2.03%0.77%1.19%1.91%2.27%1.89%2.48%38.09%紫银转债1.82%1.38%2.30%2.14%2.77%2.28%4.38%44.29%上银转债1.77%1.15%2.15%1.66%2.66%2.18%3.37%36.31%浦发转债1.37%0.90%1.82%1.94%3.46%2.19%1.94%33.30%兴业转债1.31%0.56%1.92%1.48%1.93%2.39%3.71%32.51%数据来源：，图15：银行转债绝对收与相对收益 图16：银行转债、银行块、可转债指数累收率0.300.290.290.280.280.270.270.260.26

银行转债加权平均价格/中证可转换债券指数银行转债加权平均价格(右轴)

114112110108106104102

10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%

银行转加权均价格 中证银指中证可换债指数 数据来源：， 数据来源：，图17：银行转债债性股性一览（截至2024年4月12日）杭银转债张行转债杭银转债张行转债苏农转债浦发转债紫银农转上银债债南银债转债常银2015纯债溢价率(%)纯债溢价率(%)50-50 20

40 60 80转股溢价率(%)

100

120数据来源：，图18：银行转债价位估值一览（截至2024年4月12日）苏行苏行成银转债转债杭银常银兴业上银转债青农浦发100转股溢价率(%)转股溢价率(%)604020090 95

100

105

(元)

115

120

125数据来源：，七、盈利预测跟踪：24年业绩增速预期下调根据数据，本期共10家银行24年业绩增速一致预期有变化（工商银行、农业银行、邮储银行、、浦发银行、浙商银行、北京银行、宁波银行、重庆银行、渝农商行）。本期A股银行24年净利润增速、营收增速一致预期环比上期分别下降0.24pct、0.19pct24-0.06pct24-0.15pct、-0.20pct、-0.45pct、-0.41pct。表12：A股上市银行净利润增速预测跟踪（2024E）评级机构家数露前变动（PCT）环比上期变动（PCT）最新财报披露同比2024/4/122024/4/52024/3/292024/3/222024/3/152024/3/8工商银行20-3.68-0.040.81%-1.09%-1.05%-0.86%1.76%1.76%1.76%建设银行17-4.580.003.15%2.85%2.85%3.22%4.37%4.37%4.37%农业银行21-6.3