澳大利亚抵押贷款行业市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.4

INDUSTRIES

&

MARKETSMortgagesinAustraliaCHAPTER

01OverviewRealhousepriceindexinAustraliafrom4thquarter2018to4thquarter2023QuarterlyrealhousepriceindexAustralia2018-2023135130125120115110131.4130.8126.6126.7121.7119.8118.8118.7

119

118.9117.4113.4108.2107106.3105.6Q4105.1Q2104.7Q410510095102.7Q3101.6Q1100Q2Q1Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q42018

2019

2019

2019

2019

2020

2020

2020

2020

2021

2021

2021

2021

2022

2022

2022

2022

2023

2023

2023

20233Description:TherealhousepriceindexinAustraliainthefourthquarterof2023was118.9,markingamarginalincreasefromthesamequarterofthepreviousyear.Housepricesfluctuatedoverthereportedperiodcomparedtothebaseyearof2015,experiencingasharpincreasein2021.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;Q42018toQ42023;baseyearis2015,seasonallyadjustedSource(s):OECDHousepricetoincomeratioinAustraliafrom4thquarter2018to4thquarter2023QuarterlyhousepricetoincomeratioAustralia2018-2023125120115110121.2120.9120.5119.8119.4118.1116115.7114.6114.4113.1105.1103.5

103.610510095102.9101.799.8Q399.5Q199.2Q298.5Q29790Q4Q4Q1Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q42018

2019

2019

2019

2019

2020

2020

2020

2020

2021

2021

2021

2021

2022

2022

2022

2022

2023

2023

2023

20234Description:Thehouseprice-to-incomeratioinAustraliawas119.4ꢀasofthefourthquarterof2023.Thisratio,calculatedbydividingnominalhousepricesbynominaldisposableincomeperhead,increasedfromthepreviousquarter.Theprice-to-incomeratiocanbeusedtomeasurehousingaffordabilityinaspecificarea.Asimilartrendwasseenforthehouseprice-to-rentratiointhesameperiod.PropertybubbleTherehasbeenconsiderabledebateoverthepastdecadeaboutwhetherAustraliaisin[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;Q42018toQ42023;baseyearis2015,seasonallyadjustedSource(s):OECDValueofhouseholdlendinginAustraliafrom2014to2023(inbillionAustraliandollars)HouseholdlendingvalueAustralia2014-2023400350371.68345.32298.59300264.1248.92247.1244.09237.6825020015010050235.25210.58020142015201620172018201920202021202220235/statistics/1035231/australia-value-of-household-lendingIntheyearendedDecember2023,thevalueofhousinglendinginAustraliatotaledaround298billionAustraliandollars.In2022,thevalueofhousingfinancingamountedtoaround345billionAustraliandollarsoverthecourseoftheentireyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2014to2023;yearsendedDecemberSource(s):AustralianBureauofStatisticsMonthlychangeinhousingfinanceinAustraliafromDecember2021toDecember2023MonthlygrowthinhousingfinanceAustralia2021-2023OwneroccupierInvestor10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%6Description:InDecember2023,housingfinanceinAustraliadecreasedby5.6percentforowneroccupierhousing.Inthesamemonth,housingfinancedecreasedby1.3percentforinvestors.

ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;December2021toDecember2023Source(s):AustralianBureauofStatisticsAveragemortgageinterestrateforowner-occupiersinAustraliaasatMarch2024,byratetypeAverageowner-occupiermortgageinterestrateAustralia2024,byratetype8%7.24%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%6.71%0%AveragevariablemortgageinterestrateAveragefixedmortgageinterestrate7Description:InMarch2024,theaveragevariablemortgageinterestrateforowner-occupiersinAustraliawas7.24percent.Thatsamemonth,theaverageowner-occupierfixedmortgageinterestratewasaround0.5percentlowerthantheaveragevariablemortgageinterestrate.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;asatMarch2024Source(s):AveragehomeloaninterestrateinAustraliaasofNovember2023,bystateAveragehomeloaninterestrateAustralia2023,bystate7%5.99%5.98%5.94%5.89%5.87%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%NewSouthWalesSouthAustraliaWesternAustraliaQueenslandVictoria8/statistics/1358695/australia-average-home-loan-interest-rate-by-stateIn2023,theaveragehomeloaninterestratewasthehighestintheAustralianstateofNewSouthWales,withanaveragerateofaround5.99percent.Incomparison,theaveragemortgageinterestrateinQueenslandwasataround5.87percent.

ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;November2023;2,072respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):CanstarBlueAverageowner-occupierandinvestmentmortgageinterestrateinAustraliafromJuly2019toDecember2023AveragehousingloaninterestrateinAustralia2019-2023,bytypeofmortgageOwner-occupier(outstandingloans)Investor(outstandingloans)Owner-occupier(newloans)Investor(newloans)7.5%6.5%5.5%4.5%3.5%2.5%1.5%9Description:AsofthemonthendedDecember2023,theaveragemortgageinterestrateforAustralianowner-occupierborrowerswasaround5.85percent.Incomparison,theaverageinvestorinterestratewasapproximately6.16percent.Theseratesrefertooutstandinghousingloansfrombanksandregisteredfinancialcorporations.Newloansfinancedinthatmonthhadevenhigherinterestrates,at6.24percentforowner-occupiersand6.52percentforinvestors,respectively.

ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;July2019toDecember2023;asoftheendofeachmonthSource(s):AustralianBureauofStatistics;ReserveBankofAustraliaCHAPTER

02MortgagelendersMarketshareoftheleadingmortgagelendersinAustraliafrom2020to2023,byvalueofgrosslendingLeadingmortgageprovidersAustralia2020-2023,bymarketshare202025.73%23%202126.04%22.4%14.42%14.05%3.69%2.81%2.76%1.65%2.3%202225.89%21.58%14.73%13.13%4.63%2.75%2.82%2.88%2.34%1.36%7.88%202325.66%21.34%14.68%13.3%5.11%2.66%2.75%2.84%2.41%1.37%7.89%CommonwealthBankofAustraliaWestpacBankingCorporationNationalAustraliaBankLimitedAustraliaandNewZealandBankingGroupLimitedMacquarieBankLimited14.78%14.28%2.89%2.91%2.57%1.6%INGBank(Australia)LimitedBendigoandAdelaideBankLimitedBankofQueenslandLimitedSuncorp-MetwayLimited2.42%1.23%8.59%HSBCBankAustraliaLimitedOther1.25%8.62%11Description:In2023,thetenlargestmortgagelendersinAustraliacomprisedover92percentofthemortgagemarket.TheCommonwealthBankofAustraliaandWestpacBankingCorporationwereleadingmortgageprovidersbyvalueofꢀgrossmortgagelendingandaccountedforroughly26and21percentofgrossmortgagelendingrespectively.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2020to2023Source(s):APRALeadingmortgagelendersinAustraliain2023,byvalueofgrosslending(inbillionAustraliandollars)LargestmortgageprovidersAustralia2023,byvalueofgrosslendingAnnualgrossmortgagelendinginbillionAustraliandollarsOwner-occupiedhousing1,000

2,000Investmenthousing3,00004,0005,0006,0007,000CommonwealthBankofAustraliaWestpacBankingCorporationNationalAustraliaBankLimitedAustraliaandNewZealandBankingGroupLimitedMacquarieBankLimitedBankofQueenslandLimitedBendigoandAdelaideBankLimitedINGBank(Australia)LimitedSuncorp-MetwayLimitedHSBCBankAustraliaLimitedOther12Description:In2023,thetenlargestmortgagelendersinAustraliahadaꢀmarketshareofroughly92percentofthemortgagemarket.TheCommonwealthBankofAustraliaandWestpacBankingCorporationwerethelargestmortgagelenders,withapproximately6.5and5.4billionAustraliandollarsingrossmortgagelending,respectively.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2023Source(s):APRATotalvalueofhomeloanlendingoftheCommonwealthBankofAustraliafromfinancialyear2018to2023(inbillionAustraliandollars)TotalhomeloanlendingoftheCommonwealthBankofAustraliaFY2018-2023700652.22621.99579.766005004003002001000542.88522.94501.6720182019202020212022202313Description:Infinancialyear2023,thetotalvalueoftheCommonwealthBankofAustralia'shomeloanlendingrosetoapproximately652billionAustraliandollars.CommBankiscurrentlythelargestAustralianbankintermsofmarketcapitalization,withapresenceinNewZealand,Asia,theUnitedStates,andtheUnitedKingdom.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;FY2018toFY2023Source(s):CommBankTotalvalueofhomeloanlendingofWestpacBankingCorporationinAustraliafromfinancialyear2018to2023(inbillionAustraliandollars)TotalhomeloanlendingofWestpacAustraliaFY2018-2023600485.475004003002001000467.38455.6449.2444.74440.9320182019202020212022202314Description:Infinancialyear2023,thetotalvalueofAustralianhomeloanlendingofWestpacBankingamountedtoapproximately485billionAustraliandollars,markinganincreasefromthepreviousyear.HeadquarteredinSydney,NewSouthWales,WestpacBankingisoneofAustralia'sleadingbankingandfinancialservicescompanies.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;FY2018toFY2023;asatSeptemberSource(s):WestpacTotalgroupvalueofhomeloanlendingofNationalAustraliaBank(NAB)fromfinancialyear2018to2023(inbillionAustraliandollars)TotalgrouphomeloanlendingofNationalAustraliaBankFY2018-2023450406.3389.1240035030025020015010050360343.92341.73339.54020182019202020212022202315Description:Infinancialyear2023,thetotalvalueofNationalAustraliaBank'shomeloanlendingrosetoapproximately406billionAustraliandollars.NationalAustraliaBank(NAB)isoneofAustralia'sbigfourbanksintermsofmarketcapitalizationalongsidetheCommonwealthBankofAustralia(CBA),Westpac,andtheANZBank.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;FY2018toFY2023Source(s):NAB(Australia)TotalvalueofhomeloanlendingoftheAustraliaandNewZealand(ANZ)BankingGroupfromfinancialyear2018to2023(inbillionAustraliandollars)TotalhomeloanlendingoftheANZBankingGroupFY2018-2023450404.49400372.57374.63358.35346.15343.8135030025020015010050020182019202020212022202316Description:Infinancialyear2023,thetotalvalueofANZBank'shomeloanlendingrosetoapproximately404billionAustraliandollars.TheAustraliaandNewZealand(ANZ)BankingGroupisoneofAustralia'sbigfourbanksintermsofmarketcapitalizationalongsidetheCommonwealthBankofAustralia(CBA),Westpac,andNationalAustraliaBank(NAB).ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;FY2018toFY2023Source(s):AustraliaandNewZealandBankingGroupShareofmortgageholderswhohadnegotiatedabetterinterestrateontheirmortgageinthelast12monthsinAustraliaasofNovember2023ShareofmortgageholderswhonegotiatedabetterinterestrateAustralia202330%24%25%20%15%10%5%21%18%10%8%7%7%4%0%Yes,Inegotiateda

No,butIintendto

No,Iamonagood

No,thelenderNo,itistoomuch

No,ittooktoolong

No,IamworriedUnsurebetterinterestrateinterestratealreadycouldnotgivemeabetterrateworksoIgaveupaboutbeingrejectedbyalender17Description:Asurveyconductedin2023amongAustralianconsumersrevealedthatonly21percentofmortgageholdershadsuccessfullynegotiatedabetterinterestrateontheirmortgage.Around79percentofmortgageholderssurveyedhadnotmanagedtoorhadnointentionoftryingtonegotiateabetterinterestrate.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;November2023;2,072respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):CanstarBlueShareofconsumerswhohadswitchedtheirmortgagelenderforabetterdealinthelast12monthsinAustraliaasofNovember2023ConsumerviewonswitchingmortgagelenderforabetterdealAustralia202325%21%19%19%20%15%10%5%16%9%9%7%2%0%Yes,IhaveswitchedlenderNo,butIintendto

No,itistoomuch

No,Iamonagood

No,Ididnotmeet

No,Iamworried

No,IdidnothaveUnsureworkinterestratealreadythenewlender'srequirementsaboutbeingrejectedbyalenderenoughhomeequity18Description:AccordingtoaNovember2023surveyamongAustralianconsumers,justshyof10percentofrespondentshadsuccessfullyswitchedtoanewmortgagelender.Around19percentofconsumersreportedlyhadnointentionofswitchingtheirmortgageproviderbecausetheyalreadywereonagoodinterestrate.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;November2023;2,072respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):CanstarBlueCHAPTER

03Owner-occupiersValueofhouseholdlendingforowneroccupieddwellingsinAustraliafrom2014to2023(inbillionAustraliandollars)HouseholdlendingforowneroccupiedhomesAustralia2014-2023300250263.08228.23194.64200186.09167.13161.44151.95150.49148.2215010050135.140201420152016201720182019202020212022202320Description:IntheyearendedDecember2023,thevalueoflendingtohouseholdsforowneroccupieddwellingsinAustraliatotaledaround194billionAustraliandollars.In2022,thevalueofthistypeoffinancingamountedtoaround228billionAustraliandollarsoverthecourseoftheentireyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2014to2023;yearsendedDecemberSource(s):AustralianBureauofStatisticsNumberofnewhomeloancommitmentstoowneroccupiersinAustraliafrom2020to2023(in1,000s)NumberofnewhomeloancommitmentstoowneroccupiersAustralia2020-2023600510.96500415.45406.43400354.673002001000202020212022202321Description:IntheyearendedDecember2023,thenumberofnewhousingloancommitmentstoowneroccupiersinAustraliacametojustover354thousand.Thismarkedadecreaseinthenumberofnewloancommitmentstoowneroccupiersfromthepreviousyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2020to2023;yearsendedDecemberSource(s):AustralianBureauofStatisticsNumberofnewhomeloancommitmentstoowneroccupiersinAustraliain2023,bystateorterritory(in1,000s)NumberofnewhomeloancommitmentstoowneroccupiersAustralia2023,bystate12098.5210080604020090.4377.8544.8325.848.026.82.38VictoriaNewSouthWalesQueenslandWesternAustralia

SouthAustralia

AustralianCapitalTerritoryTasmaniaNorthernTerritory22Description:In2023,thenumberofnewhomeloancommitmentstoowneroccupiersinVictoria,Australiacametojustover98.5thousand.Incomparison,inTasmania,thenumberofnewloancommitmentstoowneroccupiersamountedtoapproximately6.8thousand.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2023;yearendedDecemberSource(s):AustralianBureauofStatisticsEstimatedmonthlyrepaymentsonanaveragenewhomeloanforexistingpropertyinAustraliainSeptember2023(inAustraliandollars)EstimatedmonthlymortgagerepaymentsforexistingpropertyAustralia2023EstimatedmonthlyrepaymentsinAustraliandollars05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0004,9185,500NewSouthWalesVictoria3,8603,823AustralianCapitalTerritoryQueensland3,435SouthAustralia3,1923,0272,9302,876WesternAustraliaTasmaniaNorthernTerritory23Description:InSeptember2023,NewSouthWaleshadthehighestestimatedmonthlymortgagerepaymentsonnewhomeloansforexistingproperty,withanaveragemonthlyrepaymentof4,918Australiandollars.Australia'sNorthernTerritoryhadthelowestestimatedmonthlymortgagerepaymentvalueonnewhomeloansforexistingproperty.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;September2023Source(s):AustralianBureauofStatistics;CanstarBlueEstimatedmonthlyrepaymentsonanaveragenewhomeloanfornewlybuiltpropertyinAustraliainSeptember2023(inAustraliandollars)EstimatedmonthlymortgagerepaymentsfornewlybuiltpropertyAustralia2023EstimatedmonthlyrepaymentsinAustraliandollars05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0004,7875,500NewSouthWalesQueensland3,6433,5803,4623,3153,129VictoriaSouthAustraliaAustralianCapitalTerritoryTasmaniaWesternAustraliaNorthernTerritory2,3531,97624Description:InSeptember2023,NewSouthWaleshadthehighestestimatedmonthlymortgagerepaymentsonnewhomeloansfornewlybuiltproperty,withanaveragemonthlyrepaymentof4,787Australiandollars.TheNorthernTerritoryhadthelowestestimatedmonthlymortgagerepaymentvalueonnewhomeloans.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2023Source(s):AustralianBureauofStatistics;CanstarBlueAverageremaininghomeloanbalanceinAustraliaasofNovember2023,bystate(in1,000Australiandollars)AverageremaininghomeloanbalanceAustralia2023,bystate400356.53350300.38288.6830025020015010050233.03201.760NewSouthWalesSouthAustraliaWesternAustraliaQueenslandVictoria25Description:In2023,theaverageremaininghomeloanbalancewasthehighestinNewSouthWales,withanaverageoutstandingbalanceofaround356thousandAustraliandollars.Incomparison,theaverageoutstandingmortgagebalanceinQueenslandcametoapproximately201thousandAustraliandollars.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;November2023;2,072respondents;18yearsandolder;referstoowneroccupiersSource(s):CanstarBlueShareofowneroccupiedmortgageholdersatriskinAustraliafrom2020to2023ShareofowneroccupiedmortgageholdersatriskAustralia2020-2023AtriskExtremelyatrisk35%30%25%30.3%21.1%20.5%20.2%20%15.8%14.1%15%12.5%10.3%10%5%0%2020*20212022202326Description:Asurveyconductedin2023revealedthatasofSeptemberofthatyear,around30percentofAustralianowner-occupiedmortgageholderswereatriskofmortgagerepaymentstressduetointerestrateincreases.Theshareofrespondentsatextremeriskamountedtoapproximately20percent.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2020to2023;2,759participantswithowneroccupiedhomeloans;14yearsandolder;AsatSeptember;*ValuesasatAugust.ReadmoreSource(s):RoyMorganCHAPTER

04FirsthomebuyersValueofhouseholdlendingtofirsthomebuyersinAustraliafrom2020to2023(inbillionAustraliandollars)HouseholdlendingtofirsthomebuyersAustralia2020-20239079.058070605040302010061.4260.1459.54202020212022202328Description:IntheyearendedDecember2023,thevalueoflendingtofirsthomebuyersinAustraliacametoaround59.5billionAustraliandollars.In2021,thevalueofthistypeoffinancingamountedtoaround79billionAustraliandollars,thehighestvalueoflendingtofirsthomebuyerswithinthegivenperiod.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2020to2023;yearsendedDecemberSource(s):AustralianBureauofStatisticsValueofhouseholdlendingtofirsthomebuyersinAustraliain2023,bystateorterritory(inbillionAustraliandollars)HouseholdlendingtofirsthomebuyersAustralia2023,bystateorterritory2018.1517.841816141210810.576.8363.3841.6320VictoriaNewSouthWalesQueenslandWesternAustraliaSouthAustraliaAustralianCapitalTerritory29Description:In2023,thevalueoflendingtofirsthomebuyersinVictoria,Australiacametojustshyof18.2billionAustraliandollars.Followingclosely,thelendingvaluetofirsthomebuyersinNewSouthWalescametoaround17.8billionAustraliandollarsthatsameyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2023;yearendedDecemberSource(s):AustralianBureauofStatisticsMonthlyvalueofhouseholdlendingtofirsthomebuyersinAustraliafromJanuary2020toDecember2023,bybuyertype(inmillionAustraliandollars)HouseholdlendingtofirsthomebuyersAustralia2020-2023,bybuyertypeOwneroccupierInvestor8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000030Description:InDecember2023,thevalueoflendingtoowneroccupierfirsthomebuyersinAustraliacametoaround5.1billionAustraliandollars.Incomparison,thevalueoflendingtoinvestorfirsthomebuyersamountedtoapproximately357millionAustraliandollarsthatsamemonth.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;January2020toDecember2023Source(s):AustralianBureauofStatisticsNumberofnewloancommitmentstofirsthomebuyersinAustraliafrom2020to2023(in1,000s)NumberofnewloancommitmentstofirsthomebuyersAustralia2020-2023200173.2618016014012010080143.72125.79117.986040200202020212022202331Description:IntheyearendedDecember2023,thenumberofnewloancommitmentstofirsthomebuyersinAustralia,includingowneroccupiersandinvestors,cametoaround117.9thousand.Thismarkedaslightdecreaseinthenumberofnewloancommitmentstofirsthomebuyersfromthepreviousyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2020to2023;yearsendedDecemberSource(s):AustralianBureauofStatisticsNumberofnewloancommitmentstofirsthomebuyersinAustraliain2023,bystate(in1,000s)NumberofnewloancommitmentstofirsthomebuyersAustralia2023,bystate4035.963529.113025201510522.9716.397.620VictoriaNewSouthWalesQueenslandWesternAustraliaSouthAustralia32Description:In2023,thenumberofnewloancommitmentstofirsthomebuyersinVictoria,Australia,includingowneroccupiersandinvestors,cametoalmost36thousand.Incomparison,inSouthAustralia,thenumberofnewloancommitmentstofirsthomebuyersamountedtoapproximately7.6thousand.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;2023;yearendedDecemberSource(s):AustralianBureauofStatisticsShareofhouseholdincomespentonmortgagerepaymentsforanentry-pricedhousebycouplesaged25to34yearsinAustraliaasatFebruary2023,bycityFirsthomebuyerincomesharespentonhomemortgagepaymentsAustralia2023,bycity60%51%50%45%42%42%40%30%20%10%0%35%30%26%26%SydneyMelbourneBrisbaneAdelaidePerthHobartDarwinCanberra33Description:In2023,couplesaged25to34yearsoldinSydney,Australiaspentanaverageofaround51percentoftheirhouseholdincomeonmortgagerepaymentsforanentry-pricedhouse.Incomparison,couplesinthesameagebracketinDarwinwerespendingaround26percentoftheirhouseholdincomeonmortgagerepaymentsforahouse.ReadmoreNote(s):Australia;asatFebruary2023;basedonfixedvariablemortgagerateand20percentdepositpaidSource(s):DomainGroupShareofhouseholdincomespentonmortgagerepaymentsforanentry-pricedunitbycouplesaged25to34yearsinAustraliaasatFebruary2023,bycityFirsthomebuyerincomesharespentonunitmortgagepaymentsAustralia2023,bycity40%34%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%26%26%25%23%18%17%0%SydneyMelbourneBrisbaneAdelaidePerthDarwinCanberra34Description:AsatFebruary2023,couplesaged25to34yearsoldinSydney,Australiaspentanaverageofaround34percentoftheirhouseholdincomeonmortgagerepaymentsforanentry-pricedunit.Incomparison,couplesinthesameagebracketi