匈牙利房地产行业市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.4恒大碧桂园万达万科

INDUSTRIES

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MARKETSRealestateinHungaryCHAPTER

01OverviewRealestatetransactionvalueinHungaryfrom2017to2028(inbillioneuros)RealestatetransactionvalueinHungary2017-20281210810.239.6298.47.796.796.816.464.684.1643.252.86202017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720284Description:TherealestatetransactionvalueinHungarywasforecasttocontinuouslyincreasebetween2024and2028byintotal2.4billionEuros.Theindicatorisestimatedtoreach10.23billionEurosandthereforeanewpeakin2028.

ReadmoreNote(s):HungarySource(s):ForecastoftherevenuegeneratedfromrealestateactivitiesinHungaryfrom2012to2027(inbillionU.S.dollars)ForecastoftherevenueoftherealestateindustryinHungary2012-20271614121015.0713.8612.7211.611.4210.8610.818.767.617.44864206.436.196.066.035.635.2520122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620275Description:In2022,therevenuegeneratedbytherealestateindustrytotaled10.81billionU.S.dollarsinHungary,markingaslightdecreasecomparedtothepreviousyear.By2027,thisfigureisexpectedtoreach15.07billionU.S.dollars.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2012to2027Source(s):Eurostat;Constructionproductionvalueofnon-residentialbuildingsinHungaryfrom2010to2022(inmillionforints)Constructionproductionvalueofnon-residentialbuildingsinHungary2010-20222,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000500,000020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120226Description:Theconstructionproductionvalueofnon-residentialbuildingsinHungaryincreasedconsiderablyovertheobservedyears.In2022,theconstructionproductionvalueofnon-residentialbuildingstotaled2trillionforints.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2010to2022Source(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeConstructionproductionvalueofresidentialbuildingsinHungaryfrom2010to2022(inmillionforints)ConstructionproductionvalueofresidentialbuildingsinHungary2010-2022800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000735,297537,399468,820457,424344,947295,125190,4792016101,158201094,808201196,114201496,369201575,755201272,7922013100,00002017201820192020202120227Description:TheconstructionproductionvalueofnewresidentialbuildingsinHungarypeakedin2022atover735billionforints.Overtheconsideredperiodoftime,thelowestvaluewasrecordedin2013atlessthan73billionforints.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2010to2022Source(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeInvestmentvolumedistributiononthecommercialrealestatemarketinHungaryin2022,byinvestortypeInvestmentvolumeonthecommercialrealestatemarketinHungary2022,byinvestorShareofinvestments10%0%5%15%20%25%30%35%OtherrealestateinvestmentfundDomesticpropertyinvestmentcompanyOther32%28%15%ForeignpropertyinvestmentcompanyPublicorganisation12%8%Privateinvestor4%Domesticpublicrealestateinvestmentfund

0%8Description:OtherrealestateinvestmentfundsaccountedforthebiggestshareofinvestmentsmadeontheHungariancommercialrealestatemarketin2022,measuringat32percent.Domesticpropertyinvestmentcompaniesaccountedforafurther28percentoftheinvestmentvolume.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2022Source(s):CBREGroup;Cushman&Wakefield;HungarianNationalBankNumberoftransactionsonthehousingmarketinHungaryfrom2010to2022NumberoftransactionsonthehousingmarketinHungary2010-2022180,000160,000140,000163,695160,678157,019153,770146,302138,022134,101133,987113,789120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000090,27188,71387,73085,95720102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120229Description:ThenumberoftransactionsmadeontheHungarianhousingmarketovertheobservedyearspeakedin2018atnearly164thousandtransactions.Asof2022,thenumberoftransactionstotaledapproximately138thousand,markingaconsiderabledecreasecomparedtotheprecedingyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2010to2022Source(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeNumberofdwellingsconstructedinHungaryfrom2010to2022NumberofdwellingsconstructedinHungary2010-202230,00028,20825,00020,00015,00010,0005,000021,12720,82320,54019,89817,68114,38912,65510,5609,99420168,35820147,61220157,293201320102011201220172018201920202021202210Description:ThenumberofdwellingsconstructedinHungaryfluctuatedovertheperiodunderconsideration.In2020,over28thousanddwellingswerebuilt,whichwasthehighestfigurerecordedovertheobservedtimeperiod.Inthesameyear,theconstructionproductionvalueofresidentialbuildingstotaled469billionforints.However,by2022,thenumberofdwellingsbuiltinthecountrydecreasedtoapproximately21thousand.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2010to2022Source(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeCHAPTER

02ResidentialrealestateNewandsecond-handresidentialrealestatepricesinHungaryfrom2010to2022(inmillionforints)ResidentialrealestatepricesinHungary2010-2022Second-handdwellingsNewdwellings655545352555.727.64636.619.23127.61623.222.61419.718.311.618.61716.410.716.19.715.710.215.89.912.715510.3201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202212/statistics/1449539/hungary-housing-pricesTheaveragepriceofresidentialpropertyunitsincreasedconsiderablyinHungary.In2022,theaveragepricefornewhousesandapartmentstotalednearly56millionforints,whilenewdwellingscouldbepurchasedforapproximately28millionforints.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2010to2022Source(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeHousepriceindexinHungaryfrom2ndquarter2020to1stquarter2023(2015=100)QuarterlyhousepriceindexinHungaryQ22020-Q12023300250261.16262.16255.23256.4241.42219.86211.94204.4195.9520015010050181.59179.08174.90Q22020Q32020Q42020Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42021Q12022*Q22022*Q32022*Q42022*Q12023*13Description:ThehousepriceindexincreasedconsiderablyinHungaryovertheperiodunderobservation.Inthefirstquarterof2023,thehousepriceindexpeakedat262.16points,havingincreasedbynearlysixindexpointsfromthepreviousquarter.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;Q22020toQ12023;*Provisionaldata.Thesourcespecifiesthefollowinginformation:"TheHousePriceIndex(HPI)measurespricechangesofallresidentialpropertiespurchasedbyhouseholds(flats,detachedhouses,terraced[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):EurostatNumberofhousingmarkettransactionsinHungaryfromJanuary2022toSeptember2023,bysettlementtype(in1,000s)NumberofhousingmarkettransactionsinHungary2022-2023,bysettlementtypeBudapestCountyseatsTownsVillagesRuralHPS*municipalities5.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0Jan'22

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'2314Description:Overtheobservedperiod,thelargestnumberofhousingmarkettransactionsinHungarywasrecordedinmunicipalitiesincludedinthefamilyhousingsubsidysceme.InSeptember2023,thenumberofhousingmarkettransactionsinBudapestreached2.44thousand,markingadecreasedcomparedtotheprecedingmonth.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;January2022toSeptember2023;*HousingSubsidyforFamilies(CSOK)ReadmoreSource(s):HungarianNationalBankShareofinvestment-purposeresidentialrealestatepurchasesonthecountrysideandinBudapest,HungaryfromJanuary2021toSeptember2023Shareofinvestment-purposeresidentialrealestatepurchasesinHungary2021-2023BudapestCountryside55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%51%47%

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'2315Description:Whiletheshareofinvestment-purposeresidentialrealestatepurchasesremainedatapproximatelythesamelevelintheHungariancountryside,thisfigurefluctuatedinBudapest.InSeptember2023,36percentofresidentialrealestatepropertiesinBudapestwerepurchasedwiththepurposetoinvest,whileinJanuarythesameyearthisfiguretotaledonly47percent.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;January2021toSeptember2023Source(s):HungarianNationalBankNumberofusedapartmentssoldinHungaryfrom2016to2022(in1,000s)NumberofusedapartmentssoldinHungary2016-2022180154.616014012010080148.8147.7145.8141.4127.71256040200201620172018201920202021202216Description:ThenumberofusedapartmentssoldinHungarypeakedin2018atnearly155thousandunits.Thenumberofapartmentssoldin2022totaled128thousand,markingadecreasecomparedtotheprecedingyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2016to2022;*EstimatedvalueReadmoreSource(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeAveragefloorspaceofbuiltdwellingsinHungaryfrom2010to2022(insquaremeters)AveragefloorspaceofbuiltdwellingsinHungary2010-202212010710310110110110099989796100806040200949291201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202217Description:Overtheobservedyears,theaveragefloorspaceofdwellingsconstructedinHungarypeakedin2012at107squaremeters.Dwellingsconstructedin2022hadanaveragefloorspaceof96squaremeters.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2010to2022Source(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeCHAPTER

03CommercialrealestateConstructionproductionvalueofofficebuildingsinHungaryfrom2010to2022(inmillionforints)ConstructionproductionvalueofofficebuildingsinHungary2010-2022250,000200,000150,000192,449185,382155,499140,983130,759100,00090,57956,54156,833201557,416201650,475201049,469201345,605201442,840201250,0000201120172018201920202021202219Description:Officebuildingconstructionproductionvalueinpeakedin2022at192billionforintsinHungary.Overtheconsideredyears,thelowestvaluewasrecordedin2012at43billionforints.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2010to2022Source(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeBiggestofficeconstructioncompletionsinBudapest,Hungaryasof3rdquarter2022,byfloorspace(insquaremeters)BiggestofficeconstructioncompletionsinBudapest,HungaryQ3202240,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000037,95020,0607,275BudapestOneII&IIIMillenniumGardenP1MajorUdvar20Description:Inthethirdquarterof2022,BudapestOneII&IIIwasthelargestofficeconstructioncompletioninBudapest,Hungary,withafloorspaceof38thousandsquaremetres.ItwasfollowedbyMillenniumGardenP1,reachingafloorspaceofover20thousandsquaremetres.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;Q32022Source(s):Cushman&WakefieldDistributionofofficedemandinBudapest,Hungaryinthe2ndquarterof2022DistributionofofficedemandinBudapest,Hungary202235%32%30%25%20%15%27%26%10%10%5%5%0%NewExpansionRenewalPre-leaseOwneroccupied21/statistics/1270376/hungary-distribution-of-office-demand-in-budapestInthesecondquarterof2022,ontheBudapestofficemarket,27percentofthecontractssignedwereconnectedtoofficerenewal.Atthesametime,afurther32percentofthecontractswassignedwiththeintentionofbuildingnewofficespaces.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;Q22022Source(s):RobertsonHungaryMonthlyaverageofferedrentalrateofmodernofficesinBudapestinHungaryfrom1stquarter2017to2ndquarter2023(ineurospersquaremeter)AverageofferedrentalrateofmodernofficesinBudapestinHungary2017-202316141210864202017

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ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;Q12017toQ22023Source(s):CBREGroup;Cushman&Wakefield;HungarianNationalBankConstructionproductionvalueofwholesaleandretailtradebuildingsinHungaryfrom2010to2022(inmillionforints)ConstructionvalueofwholesaleandretailtradebuildingsinHungary2010-2022180,000160,000140,000120,000100,00080,000167,401132,773106,048103,14876,42765,30960,00040,00020,000052,093201151,010201649,032201043,416201342,484201435,489201235,543201520172018201920202021202223Description:TheconstructionproductionvalueofwholesaleandretailtradebuildingsinHungarypeakedin2022at167billionforints.Overtheobservedyears,thelowestvaluewasrecordedin2012.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2010to2022Source(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeRetailparkrealestatestockinHungaryinJune2023,bycounty(in1,000squaremeters)RetailparkrealestatestockinHungary2023,bycountyRetailparkrealestatestockinthousandsquaremeters050100150200250300350400450PestBudapest424151Borsod-Abaúj-ZemplénFejér928281Csongrád-CsanádHajdú-Bihar78746964Gyr-Moson-SopronBács-KiskunZalaBaranya4236VeszprémJász-Nagykun-SzolnokSzabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg282624/statistics/1284067/hungary-retail-park-real-estate-stock-by-countyAsofJune2023,theretailparkrealestatestockwasthehighestinthecountyofPest,measuringat424thousandsquaremeters.Atthesametime,Hungary'scapital,Budapest,recorded151thousandsquaremeters'worthofretailparkrealestatearea.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;June2023Source(s):CBREGroup;HungarianNationalBankShoppingcenterrealestatestockinHungaryinJune2023,bycounty(in1,000squaremeters)ShoppingcenterrealestatestockinHungary2023,bycountyShoppingcenterrealestatestockinthousandsquaremeters200

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04IndustrialrealestateConstructionproductionvalueofindustrialbuildingsandwarehousesinHungaryfrom2010to2022(inmillionforints)ConstructionvalueofindustrialbuildingsandwarehousesinHungary2010-20221,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202227Description:TheconstructionproductionvalueofindustrialbuildingsandwarehousesinHungaryincreasedoverallduringtheobservedyears.In2022,thisvaluepeakedat1051billionforints.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2010to2022Source(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeCompletionsontheindustrialpropertymarketinBudapest,Hungaryfrom1stquarter2016to3rdquarter2022(insquaremeters)CompletionsontheindustrialpropertymarketinBudapest,Hungary2016-2022180,000160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000Q1

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'2228Description:Inthethirdquarterof2022,thecompletionsontheindustrialpropertymarketinBudapest,Hungarytotaledover145thousandsquaremeters,markingasignificantincreasecomparedtothecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear.Overtheobservedperiod,thehighestfigurewasrecordedinthefourthquarterof2021atnearly118thousandsquaremeters.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;Q12016toQ32022Source(s):CBREGroup;ColliersInternational;Cushman&Wakefield;JLL;PropertyForum;RobertsonHungaryIndustrialpropertyvacancyrateinBudapest,Hungaryfrom3rdquarter2013to1stquarter2022IndustrialpropertyvacancyrateinBudapest,Hungary2013-202225

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'2229/statistics/1284133/hungary-industrial-property-vacancy-rate-in-budapestVacancyratesontheindustrialpropertymarketinBudapest,Hungary,decreasedoverallduringtheconsideredperiodoftime.Inthefirstquarterof2022,thevacancyratetotaled4.2percent,comparedtonearly24percentinthethirdquarterof2013.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;Q32013toQ12022Source(s):CBREGroup;ColliersInternational;Cushman&Wakefield;JLL;PropertyForum;RobertsonHungaryIndustrialpropertymarketdemandinBudapest,Hungaryfrom1stquarter2015to3rdquarter2022(insquaremeters)IndustrialpropertymarketdemandinBudapest,Hungary2015-2022250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000Q1

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'2230Description:Inthethirdquarterof2022,thetotaldemandontheindustrialpropertymarketinBudapestamountedtoapproximately218thousandsquaremeters.Overtheobservedperiod,theindustrialpropertymarketdemandinBudapestpeakedinthefourthquarterof2021atover237thousandsquaremeters.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;Q12015toQ32022Source(s):CBREGroup;ColliersInternational;Cushman&Wakefield;JLL;PropertyForum;RobertsonHungaryCHAPTER

05MortgageandhousingloansTotaloutstandingresidentialmortgagelendinginHungaryfrom2ndquarter2014to2ndquarter2023(inbillioneuros)OutstandingresidentialmortgagelendinginHungaryQ22014-Q2202320181614121086420Q2

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'2332Description:ThetotalamountofoutstandingresidentialmortgagelendinginHungarydecreasedoverallduringtheperiodunderobservation,fallingtoavalueofapproximately15.2billioneurosasofthesecondquarterof2023.Thelargestamountofoutstandingresidentialmortgagelendingduringthisperiodwasfoundinthesecondquarterof2014,whenavalueofalmost18billioneurosofresidentialmortgagelendingwasrecorded.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;Q22014toQ22023Source(s):EuropeanMortgageFederationGrossresidentialmortgagelendinginHungaryfrom2ndquarter2014to2ndquarter2023(inmillioneuros)GrossresidentialmortgagelendinginHungaryQ22014-Q220231,3001,100900700500300100Q2

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'2333Description:TheamountofgrossresidentialmortgagelendinginHungaryfluctuatedbetweenthesecondquarterof2014andthesecondquarterof2023.Thegrossresidentialmortgagelendingamountedto481millioneurosinthesecondquarterof2023afteranincreaseofa100millioneurosfromthepreviousquarter.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;Q22014toQ22023Source(s):EuropeanMortgageFederationValueofdisbursedhousingloansinHungaryfrom2010to2022(inmillionforints)ValueofdisbursedhousingloansinHungary2010-20221,400,0001,200,0001,000,000800,0001,248,5781,069,025916,770876,387822,636604,701600,000455,725361,2822015400,000261,804253,6312014240,183235,7962012168,2612013200,000020102011201620172018201920202021202234Description:ThevalueofdisbursedhousingloansgrewyearoveryearinHungaryduringtheobservedperiod.In2021,thisfiguretotaledover1.2trillionforintsrepresentinganincreaseof420percentcomparedto2010.In2021,theaveragevalueofdisbursedhomeloansamountedto10.3millionforints,whichwasthehighestfigurerecordedovertheobservedeleven-yearperiod.ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2010to2022Source(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeAveragevalueofdisbursedhousingloansinHungaryfrom2010to2022(inmillionforints)AveragevalueofdisbursedhousingloansinHungary2010-2022141210811.510.38.87.97.65.865.44.84.13.73.74203.43.4201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202235Description:TheaveragevalueofdisbursedhousingloansgrewconsiderablyinHungaryduringtheobservedperiodoftime.In2022,thevalueofaveragehousingloanstotaled11.5millionforintscomparedto4.1millionforintsin2010.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2010to2022Source(s):HungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeDistributionofnewhousingloansinHungaryasofJune2023,bypurposeDistributionofnewhousingloansinHungary2023,bypurpose45%42.19%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%4.17%3.82%2.97%0%PurchaseofusedhomesConstructionandpurchaseofnewhomesRenovationandmodernisationHouseextensionandother36Description:InJune2023,themajorityofnewhousingloanswereusedforthepurchaseofnewloans,measuringatover42percent.Afurtherthreepercentofthehousingloansservedrenovationandmodernizationpurposes.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;June2023Source(s):HungarianNationalBankMortgageinterestrateinHungaryfrom1stquarter2013to2ndquarter2023MortgageinterestrateinHungaryQ12013-Q2202312.0%11.0%10.0%9.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%Q1

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'2337Description:Amongthefactorsthatinfluencemortgageinterestratesareinflation,economicgrowth,monetarypolicies,thebondmarket,thestabilityoflenders,andtheoverallconditionsofthehousingmarket.ItcanbeseenthatthemortgageinterestrateinHungarydecreasedoverallwithsomefluctuationuntilthelastquarterof2021.Followinganincrease,itreachedavalueof8.87percentasofthesecondquarterof2023.ThiswaspartofanoveralltrendofincreasingmortgageinterestratesinEurope.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;Q12013toQ22023Source(s):EuropeanMortgageFederationCHAPTER

06RealestateinvestmentInvestmentvolumesonthecommercialrealestatemarketinHungaryin2022,byinvestor'scountryoforiginInvestmentvolumesontheCREmarketinHungary2022,byinvestor'scountryoforigin80%72%70%60%50%40%30%20%12%8%10%0%3%2%2%1%0%0%0%HungaryFranceUKChinaAustriaCzechRepubllic

GermanyUSARepublicofSouthAfricaOther39Description:Domestictransactionsaccountedforover70percentoftheinvestmentsmadeontheHungariancommercialrealestatemarketin2022.Francewastheleadingforeigninvestoraccountingfor12percentofthetransactions.

ReadmoreNote(s):Hungary;2022Source(s):CBREGroup;Cushman&Wakefield;HungarianNationalBankInvestmentvolumeontheofficemarketinHungaryfrom2010to2022(inmillioneuros)InvestmentvolumeontheofficemarketinHungary2010-20221,2001,00080097290287382575961260043541535940020920720066410201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202240Description:TheinvestmentvolumeontheHungarianofficerealestatemarket