世界银行-《东帝汶经济报告》2024年1月-符合目的：打造一个稳定、包容和有韧性的金融部门（英）-2024

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Economic

Repor

tFit

for

Purpose:

Crafting

a

Stable,

Inclusive

andResilient

Financial

SectorJanuary2024AcknowledgmentThe

Timor-Leste

Economic

Report

(TLER)

is

a

bi-annual

World

Bank

report

that

assesses

recentmacroeconomic

developments,

outlook,

and

risks,

as

wellasspecific

development

challengesfortheTimoreseeconomy.

In

doing

so,

the

TLER

aims

to

inform

the

public

policy

debate

and

is

geared

towards

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wide

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thegeneral

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the

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Bank

Jakarta

and

Timor-Leste

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guidance

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board

chaired

bySatu

Kahkonen,

Country

Director

for

Indonesia

and

Timor-Leste.

Thereport

isprepared

by

the

Macroeconomics,

Trade,

and

Investment

(MTI)

Global

Practice

team,

under

the

guidance

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Christian

Moller

(Practice

Manager),

Rinku

Murgai

(Practice

Manager),

Cecile

Thioro

Niang

(PracticeManager)

Bernard

Harborne

(Resident

Representative),

Habib

Rab

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Leader

and

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Economist),and

Francesco

Strobbe

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Financial

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isled

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AliefAulia

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Cigdem

Celikauthored

Section

1.2.

Ananda

Nathan

Narasimhan

contributed

to

Box

1.1.

The

chapter

focusing

on

theFinancial

Sector

was

authored

by

Salman

Alibhai,

I

Gede

Putra

Arsana,

Calvin

Koenig,

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de

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Timor-Leste

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dataused

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report

also

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Amina

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Daisuke

Fukuzawa,

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Lala,

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Forquestions

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emailarezza@andypakpahan@.TableofContentsACKNOWLEDGMENT........................................................................................................IIITABLEOFCONTENTS.......................................................................................................IVLISTOF

FIGURES,TABLES

AND

BOXES.........................................................................VSUMMARY................................................................................................................................11.

RecentDevelopments.................................................................................................................

12.

Outlook

andRisks

......................................................................................................................23.

Special

Focus:

Building

aStable,

InclusiveandResilientFinancial

Sector

in

Timor-Leste

....

21.RECENT

DEVELOPMENTS..............................................................................................51.1.

Global

economic

activity

continues

to

soften

and

while

the

prices

of

most

commodities

haveretreated

from

their2022peaks,they

remainhigher

thanpre-pandemic

levels.........................51.2.

Consumption-fueled

recoverycoupledwith

concerningdecline

ininvestment.

.......................61.3.

Lackof

economicdynamismhindersjob

creation.....................................................................81.4.

Thefiscalpositionhas

improved

due

todifficultiesin

executing

the

budget.

.........................111.5.

Fiscalexpansion

hasled

to

amplebankliquidity......................................................................121.6.…andcaused

largeandpersistent

external

imbalances............................................................141.7.Despitesomemoderation,

price

pressuresremain.

...................................................................162.OUTLOOKAND

RISKS

.....................................................................................................

193.FIT

FOR

PURPOSE:

CRAFTING

A

STABLE,

INCLUSIVE

AND

RESILIENTFINANCIAL

SECTOR

INTIMOR-LESTE.........................................................................233.1.

Introduction..............................................................................................................................

233.2.

FinancialSector

Context...........................................................................................................

243.3.

FinancialStability

inTimor-Leste............................................................................................

263.4.

FinancialInclusionin

Timor-Leste..........................................................................................

283.5.

FinancialResiliencein

Timor-Leste

........................................................................................

343.6.

PolicyInterventionsand

WaysForward...................................................................................

37ANNEX

1:KEYINDICATORS.............................................................................................39ANNEX

2:PEERSELECTION............................................................................................40REFERENCES.......................................................................................................................

41World

Bank

Group

January

2024

ivListofFigures,

Tables

and

BoxesFIGURESFigure

1.1:The

economycontinuedits

recoveryin

2022…

...................................................................6Figure

1.2:

but

thecountry’soutputisyetto

return

to

its

pre-pandemiclevel......................................6Figure

1.3:Majorityof

population

receivedvarious

socialassistances.

................................................7Figure

1.4:Remittancesaremainlyused

forconsumption.

..................................................................7Figure

1.5:GDPgrowth

hasmainly

been

driven

by

expansionofpublicsector...................................8Figure

1.6:Bothpublicand

privateinvestmentwerestillbelowthe

2015level.....................................8Figure

1.7:LaborForceParticipation

andemploymentratesremainedat

alowbase.

........................8Figure

1.8:Timor-Leste

hasthelowestlabor

forceparticipationamongselectedsmallstates…........9Figure

1.9:

Unemployment

declined,

while

number

of

people

out

of

labor

force

rose

faster

than

thelabor

force.

.............................................................................................................................................9Figure

1.10:GVA/capitareductionwasprimarilydrivenby

falling

labor

productivity.

......................10Figure

1.11:

Structural

transformation

helped

partially

offset

the

effects

of

reduced

labor

productivityin

servicesand

industrysectors.

...........................................................................................................10Figure

1.12:

Sectors

that

have

seen

declines

in

labor

productivity

also

experienced

an

increase

inemployment.

.........................................................................................................................................10Figure

1.13:Asof

2021,

employment

isconcentratedin

lower

productivitysectors.............................11Figure

1.14:The

budget

executionrateacceleratedbytheendof

October.

........................................12Figure

1.15:Broadmoney

asashare

ofGDPnearly

doubled

between

2019and2023.

........................13Figure

1.16:Largeoverseasplacement

of

bankassetshas

beenthenorm...........................................13Figure

1.17:Loanto

depositratiocontinued

to

recover

after

decliningduring

thePandemic............13Figure

1.18:Thecurrentaccountdeficitworsened

dueto

thedeteriorationof

thetradebalance.

......14Figure

1.19:

The

cumulative

net

financial

account

recorded

a

negative

balance,

driven

by

low

FDI

andnegative

portfolioinvestment.

..............................................................................................................14Figure

1.20:Receipts

of

coffeeexports

declinedsharplyowingto

falling

prices.................................15Figure

1.21:Goodsimportsremained

high

and

contributed

to

theconsistently

hightradedeficit.....15Figure

1.22:REERcontinuedto

appreciate,surpassingNEER,dueto

high

domestic

inflation.......15Figure

1.23:

Real

exchange

rate

against

Indonesia

Rupiah

and

Australian

Dollar

continued

toappreciate..............................................................................................................................................15Figure

1.24:Inflationremained

high,due

to

food

and

non-alcohol

beveragespriceinflation.

...........17Figure

1.25:

The

price

inflation

of

rice,

vegetables,

and

sugar

related

goods

were

the

main

contributorstotheprice’sinflationof

food

and

non-alcoholicbeveragesitems.

.....................................................17Figure

1.26:Tradablegoodsprices

remainedhighamidstthe

deceleration

of

global

prices..............17Figure

1.27:Inflationhad

beendecliningin

Timor-Lestemajortradingpartners..............................17Figure

2.1:

The

low

budget

execution,

especially

during

the

election

years,

led

to

poor

economicperformance.

........................................................................................................................................

20Figure

2.2:

Nearly

70

percent

of

revenues

is

at

risk

in

the

event

of

the

complete

depletion

of

PetroleumFund......................................................................................................................................................21Figure

2.3:Plannedcapitalbudgetwas

high,but

executionwaslow.................................................

22Figure

3.1:

Domesticcredit(percent

ofGDP).....................................................................................

25Figure

3.2:Broadmoney

(percentof

GDP).........................................................................................

25Figure

3.3:BankBranchesper1'000adults.........................................................................................

25Figure

3.4:Account

ownershipatafinancial

institutionorwith

amobile

moneyservice

provider

...

25Figure

3.5:CapitalAdequacyRatio.....................................................................................................

25Figure

3.6:Non-performingloanratio

................................................................................................

25Figure

3.7:Asset

Quality......................................................................................................................

27Figure

3.8:Profitability

........................................................................................................................

27Figure

3.9:

Net

InterestMargins

........................................................................................................

27World

Bank

Group

January

2024vFigure

3.10:Accessto

financefor

firms(cross-countrycomparison)..................................................

30Figure

3.11:Loanand

collateral...........................................................................................................

30Figure

3.12:Bank’scredit

composition

(Dec2021)

.............................................................................

30Figure

3.13:

Privatesectorcredit

overview...........................................................................................

30Figure

3.14:

Financial

accessindicators

..............................................................................................

32Figure

3.15:

Financial

servicesaccesspointevolution

........................................................................

32Figure

3.16:Remittances

inflow...........................................................................................................

33Figure

3.17:Increasedimpactof

natural

disastersduetoclimatechange..........................................

35Figure

3.18:AverageAnnualLossesunderdifferentclimate

change

scenarios..................................

35TABLESTable1.1:Timor-Leste’s2022GrowthPerformance..............................................................................6Table1.2:Per

CapitaValueAddedandlabor

productivity

declinedbetween2013and2021................9Table1.3:2023BudgetStructurebeforeandafter

rectification............................................................11Table

1.4:

Compared

to

other

Pacific

Island

Countries,

Timor-Leste’s

bank

credit

was

relatively

low,but

the

moneysupplywasat

the

high

side...........................................................................................13Table2.1:EconomicForecast

..............................................................................................................19Table3.1:FinancialStabilityinTimor-Leste

......................................................................................

28BOXESBox1.1:ExchangeRate

Regimesin

Timor-Leste................................................................................16Box2.1:Growth

and

Budget

Execution

during

PoliticalYears

..........................................................

20Box2.2:

Proposed

2024Budget

...........................................................................................................

22Box3.1:Initiativesto

expandprivatesector

creditin

Timor-Leste

.....................................................31KEY

INDICATORSPopulation(million)1.31.6GDPnon-oil

&gas(nominalUSDbillion,

2022)GDPpercapita(USD,2022)1,24741.822.065.928.7Povertyheadcountratio-nationalpovertyline(%population)Povertyheadcountratio-USD1.90

aday

(2011

PPP,%population)Povertyheadcountratio-USD3.20

aday

(2011

PPP,%population)GINIindexNotes:PopulationandGDPdata

arefor2019.Povertyand

inequalitydataarefor2014(withrevisedPPPs).World

Bank

Group

January

2024

viWorld

Bank

Group

January

2024

viiTimor-Leste

Economic

ReportFit

for

Purpose:

Creating

a

Stable,

Inclusive

and

Resilient

Financial

SectorSummary1.

RecentDevelopmentsThe

final

national

accounts

for

2022

have

slightly

raised

the

non-oil

growth

rate,

with

consumptiondriving

economic

activities.1

The

2022

growth

was

adjusted

to

4.0

percent,

slightly

higher

than

the

initialestimate

of3.9

percent.

Although

this

represents

a

continuation

ofthe

2.9

percent

growth

experienced

in

2021,the

country’s

output

level

is

yet

to

return

to

its

pre-pandemic

level.

The

strong

private

consumption

in

2022was

driven

by

government

transfers

and

remittances.

However,

the

persistent

weakness

in

both

public

andprivate

investment

over

recent

years

raises

concerns

about

the

prospects

for

long-term

recovery,

potentiallyimpactingfutureoutput

potentialandproductivity.The

IX

Constitutional

Government

has

an

ambitious

target

of

creating

some

50000

jobs

over

the

nextfive

years,

butthelack

of

economic

dynamism

hinders

job

creation

for

rapidly

expanding

workforce.Labor

force

participation

has

stagnated

at

approximately

30.6

percent

over

an

eight-year

period,

one

of

thelowest

levelsintheworld,

asindicatedby

successive

Labor

ForceSurveys.

Additionally,laborproductivityhasdecreased,

with

the

population

growth

outpacing

the

rise

in

gross

value

added.

A

worrying

trend

is

theincreasingconcentrationofemploymentin

sectorswithdeclininglaborproductivity.In

response

to

severe

slow

budget

execution,

the

new

government

revised

the

2023

budget,

decreasingplanned

expenditure

by

12

percent,

aligning

closely

to

the

actual

spending

in

2022.

All

spendingcategories,

except

salaries

and

wages,

werereduced,

with

capital

spending

facing

the

largest

cut.

Concurrently,the

government

reversed

recent

initiatives

to

boost

revenue.

Taxes

on

sugar

and

sugary

drinks

were

repealedwhile

import

duties

and

tobacco

excise

rates

were

reduced

to

the

previous

year's

levels.

Following

theseadjustments,

the

fiscal

outlook

for

the

year

improved,

with

the

deficit

now

projected

to

be

just

under

60

percentofGDP.Forthe

firstnine

months

of2023,consumerprice

inflationremainedhighat8.3percent

year-on-year,driven

by

a

notable

rise

in

both

food

and

non-food

prices.

This

upward

trend

has

persisted

despite

adecrease

in

inflation

rates

among

Timor-Leste's

key

trading

partners

and

the

strengthening

of

the

US

dollar.Although

the

government

has

made

efforts

to

curb

inflation

and

despite

ageneral

declinein

global

prices,

thecostof

tradablegoodshasremained

high.The

growth

in

money

supply

has

paralleled

fiscal

expansion,

leading

to

substantial

liquidity

in

thebanking

sector

which

remains

largely

unutilized

by

the

real

sector.

The

ratio

of

broad

money

to

GDPnearly

doubled,

increasing

from

42.4

percent

in

October

2019

to

78.8

percent

in

September

2023.

A

significantportionof

bankingsector

assetsarehowever

held

overseas

whileloanstothe

private

sector

haveonly

recentlyshown

signs

of

growth.

Challenges

in

risk

assessment

for

potential

borrowers

and

the

absence

of

a

legalframework

for

loanprotectionremainkeystructuralissues.There

have

been

consistent

trade

deficits

since

Q4

2022,

reaching

17.1

percent

of

GDP

by

September2023.The

deficit

is

more

pronounced

when

oil

and

gas

exportsare

excluded.

The

large

external

imbalancesareprimarilyduetopersistentexpansionaryfiscalpolicythatsurpasses

theeconomy's

capacitytoabsorb,coupledwith

limited

domestic

production

and

exports

that

are

insufficient

to

counterbalance

the

significant

trade

deficit.1The

bifurcation

of

the

Gross

Domestic

Product

(GDP)

into

oil

and

non-oil

in

Timor-Leste

not

only

underscores

the

impact

of

oilrevenues

onthe

national

economy

but

alsooriginates

from

themaritime

boundary

dispute,

settled

in2019.

This

settlement

influencedtheacknowledgmentand

administrationofoilandgas

production.In

thecontextofthisreport,anymentionofGDP,

unlessexplicitlydifferentiated,pertainstothenon-oilGDP.World

Bank

Group

January

20241Timor-Leste

Economic

ReportFit

for

Purpose:

Creating

a

Stable,

Inclusive

and

Resilient

Financial

Sector2.

OutlookandRisksThe

economy

is

expected

to

maintain

its

growth

in

2023,

sustaining

the

gradual

recovery

that

beganin2021.The

growth

rate

is

anticipatedto

taper

to

2.3

percentin

2023,attributedto

a

decelerationin

economicactivities

during

political

transitions

and

consequent

pauses

in

government

spending.

Economic

growth

isprojected

to

average

at

4.1

percent

in

2024

and

2025.

The

government's

focus

on

capital

expenditure

andinfrastructure

investment,

increasing

the

budget

from18.4percentof

GDPin

2023to

24.5

percent

of

GDP

inthe

2024,

is

likely

to

further

drive

growth.

However,

export

growth

may

face

constraints,

largely

due

to

thedependenceon

coffeeasthe

primaryexportcommodity.Inflation

is

projected

to

ease

in

2024,

driven

by

a

moderation

in

global

commodity

prices

and

astabilizationof

global

foodsecurity

conditions.

Additionally,reducedinflation

ratesin

the

trading

partnersof

Timor-Leste

are

expected

to

lessen

the

impact

of

imported

inflation.

Albeit

beneficial

in

easing

pricepressures,

the

new

government's

decision

to

revoke

the

implementation

of

revenue

measures,

such

as

exciseduties

on

sugar,

sugarybeverages,

and

tobacco,

may

undermine

efforts

aimed

at

increasing

revenue

collectionandcontrollingthe

consumptionof

goods

thathavenegativehealthimpacts.The

fiscaldeficitis

expectedto

hoveraround43percent

of

GDPoverthe

medium

term

without

fiscalreforms.

The

budget

shortfall

is

being

covered

through

withdrawals

from

the

rapidly

declining

PetroleumFund.

Before

the

Fund

is

comp