Morgan Stanley Fixed-Asia Economics The Viewpoint 亚洲经济研究 观点 贸易-基本面改善紧张局势加剧-此为英文文档

Nov-19Feb-20May-20Aug-20Nov-20Feb-21May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24IdeaNov-19Feb-20May-20Aug-20Nov-20Feb-21May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24IdeaMorganstanleyRESEARCHMorganStanleyAsiaLimited亚洲首席经济学家MorganStanleyAsiaLimited亚洲首席经济学家+8522239-7812Chetan.Ahya@+8522239-7812MorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.MorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.亚洲经济学家Derrick.Kam@+656834-8272+656834-8272MorganStanleyAsiaLimited经济学家Jonathan.Cheung@经济学家Jonathan.Cheung@+8522848-5652+8522848-5652u出口的强劲增长有助于该地区应对各央行不得不维持较全球新订单相对于库存的强劲表现，以及美国经济增长前景的改Asiarealexports(SA,Dec-19=100)Asia'sAsia'sexporthavebeenimprovinggradually,butthetroughinginend-2022strongpickupduringtroughinginend-2022meaningfullyoverThistranslatedreportismadeavailableforconvenienceonlyandisexcerptedfromtheoriginalresearchreportpublishedinEnglish.Intheeventofanydiscrepancybetweenthetranslationandtheoriginalresearchreport,thecontentintheoriginalresearchreportwillprevail.Theoriginalresearchreportcanbefoundhere:AsiaEconomics:TheViewpo2024).究报告有任何不一致之处，以原版研究报告中的内容为准。原版研究报告可在此Nov-19Feb-20May-20Aug-20Nov-20Feb-21May-21Aug-21Nov-21FebNov-19Feb-20May-20Aug-20Nov-20Feb-21May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24IdeaExhibit2:亚洲出口复苏⃞近几个月大幅改善9590Asiarealexports(SA,Dec-19=100)Asia'sexporthavebeenimprovinggradually,Asia'sexporthavebeenimprovinggradually,butthetroughinginend-2022troughinginend-2022meaningfullyoverthepast3months85130125120115110105100959085Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24Asiaearlyreporters*realexports(SA,Dec-19=100)124109109低。全球金融危机后，发达市场私人部门一直在去杠杆，这限制了私人部门而限制了亚洲的出口。如今，发达市场私人部门的资产负债表不再去杠杆的出口在新冠疫情后走上了不同的轨道。可以肯定消费重点向服务回归，带来了一段消化期。但总体而言，本轮周期迄今为MorganStanleyResearch34Idea330280230180130802019-nowannualized%MFeb-00Feb-02Feb-04Feb-06Feb-08Feb-10Feb-12Feb-14Feb-16Feb-18Feb-20Feb-222019-nowannualized%MFeb-00Feb-02Feb-04Feb-06Feb-08Feb-10Feb-12Feb-14Feb-16Feb-18Feb-20Feb-22Feb-24avg:4.4%avg:4.4%2008-19annualized%M2008-19annualized%M 2019-nowavg:3.5% 2019-now2000-08%Mavg:9.6%%Mavg:9.6%口⋯⋯350Realexports(Jan-00=100)Exhibit5:⋯⋯但仍慢于全球金融危机前的周期170150Globalavg:2avg:22%. ..Realexports(%Y3MMA)AsiaAsiaGlobalDec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Idea我们按产品和目的地深入研究亚洲的出口情况，以衡量改善的广泛程度现意味着下降过程中的调整幅度大于非科技出口。事实上，自202水平计算，科技出口大幅滞后于非科技出口，但目前科技出口正与善。从中国内地、印度、韩国、台湾地区和15014013012011010090Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24TechNon-techTotalAsianominalexports(SA,Dec-19=100)13113012715514513512511510595Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24TechNon-techTotal13713313220018016014012010080Koreafirst20daysdailysemiconduct144MorganStanleyResearch56Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Idea途的角度来看，资本品出口（约占该地区出口的益于美国资本支出趋势的走强而稳步改善（详见下文）。随着近几个月涨，大宗商品出口（占该地区出口的20%180Asianominalexportsbyend-use(SA,Dec-19=100)Consumergoods(24%)Intermediategoods(229028023080Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24AutoExports(6%)ExAutoExports(94%)OverallDec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23Mar-24AutoExports(6%)ExAutoExports(94%)OverallExportsUSnominalcapitalgoodsimport(SA,Dec-19=100)9080Exhibit14:……尽管亚洲AsiaexChinanominalexports(SA,Dec-19=100)Idea际出口往往领先亚洲六个月。这种改善最初是由于库存的调整，但现在观30%25%20%15%10% 5% 0% -5%-10%Sep-06Sep-07Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11Sep-12Sep-13Sep-14Sep-15Sep-06Sep-07Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11Sep-12Sep-13Sep-14Sep-15Sep-16Sep-17Sep-18Sep-19Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Sep-23Sep-24Asiarealexports(%Y,3MMA)Globalneworderstoinventoryratio(RS,6-monthlead)0.951.201.151.101.051.000.950.900.850.800.75AsiaManufacturingPMINewOrders/InventoryRatioNewOrders(RHS)Inventories(RHS)Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24日我们的美国经济研究团队将美国GDP增速预测上调了整整一个百分点⃞从2023在此背景下，消费和资本支出的表现都好于最初的预期。事实上，美也证明了这一点。汽车进口继续呈上升趋势，而资本品进口有所回升，成MorganStanleyResearch7820%5%0%-5%-10%-15%Privatenon-residentialnon-I9.5%4.5%4.2%0.4%20%5%0%-5%-10%-15%Privatenon-residentialnon-I9.5%4.5%4.2%0.4%Idea劲0.50.0MSf'castUSrealGDP(%Y)MSf'cast202320222024E2023202220%USrealcapex(%Y)Residentialcapex15%OverallcapexNon-residentialcapex5.4%4.6%0.4%4.6%0.4%0%-5%-10%-15%Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22Dec-239080Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24CapitalgoodimportsNon-foodconsumergoodsimport(incl.autos)USrealprivatecapex(%Y)PrDec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22Dec-23看到的科技出口的强劲势头有望持续。目前的情况是，科技需求，尤其关的科技需求，仍然非常强劲，而非人工智能科技需求的复苏MorganstanleyIdea张局势的角度来看，美国财政部长耶伦在4月初访华期间指出了对中国“产题的关注，随后拜登总统呼吁对从中国进口的钢铁和铝征收三倍关税温。从中欧关系的角度来看，德国总理朔尔茨最近也访问了中国，并剩”提出了类似的担忧，不过在被问及这一问题时，他确实对采取贸易保保留意见。在此背景下，随着美国大选季的到来，我们预计贸易紧张局势资本支出受损所带来的间接影响或更大，因为这种影响可能会更快、更打击企业信心和企业家精神，降低企业部门的投资动力,短期内可能拖累贸易周期。虽然贸易紧张局势再度抬头可能会加速供应链的多元化布局，但这只能部体所受的影响，而且还是中期影响，由此导致的需求下降将拖累整体增MorganStanleyResearch910MorganstanleyIdea下，出口有助于中国应对其经济增长态势。今年迄今为止，强强劲的一个重要原因。事实上，据我们的中国经济研究团队估计，净出口对2024年一季累0.2个百分点的局面。对于除中国以外的亚洲其他地区更好地