拉丁美洲可再生能源行业市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.6风电光伏储能核电

INDUSTRIES

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MARKETSRenewableenergyoutlookinLatinAmericaCHAPTER

01OverviewRenewableenergycapacityinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanfrom2010to2022(ingigawatts)RenewableenergycapacityinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean2010-2022350300314.45294.8277.5265.91251.41250236.89226.3208.04197.3220015010050186.2180.34174.08167.72020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120224Description:TheenergycapacityfromrenewablesourcesinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanneared314.5gigawattsin2022,upfromapproximately294.8gigawattsayearearlier.Incomparisonto2010,thisrepresentsanincreaseofalmost46percent.Theregion'ssolarphotovoltaicenergycapacityamountedtonearly45.8gigawattsin2022.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2010to2022;Estimates*;*FigureswerecalculatedbySource(s):IRENA;usingthesource'sdataforrenewableenergycapacityinCentralAmericaandtheCaribbean,SouthAmerica,andMexico.Thisstatisticwascompiledusingdifferent[...]

ReadmoreLeadingcountriesbasedonrenewableenergycapacityinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanin2022(inmegawatts)RenewableenergycapacityinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean2022,bycountryCapacityinmegawatts020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000BrazilMexico175,26231,683Chile17,91016,906VenezuelaArgentinaColombiaParaguayPeruEcuadorUruguayCostaRicaGuatemalaPanama15,07613,4358,8326,4315,3943,7453,1382,8782,6145Description:In2022,BrazilwastheleadingLatinAmericancountryintermsofinstalledrenewableenergycapacityintheregion,withnearly175.2gigawatts.Brazil'sinstalledenergycapacityrepresentedapproximately55percentoftheregion'srenewableenergycapacityin2021.Mexicotrailedinsecond,withacapacityof31.7gigawatts.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2022Source(s):IRENAElectricitygenerationfromrenewablesourcesinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanin2022,bysource(interawatthours)RenewableelectricityproductioninLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean2022,bysource900782.48007006005004003002001000136.64Wind78.9565.17Solar9.65HydroBioenergyOtherRenewables6Description:In2022,hydropowerwasbyfarthelargestrenewableenergysourceinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.Theregionproducedover780terawatthoursofhydropowerinthatyear.AhandfulofLatinAmericancountriesareamongthecountrieswiththelargesthydropowercapacityinstalledworldwide.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2022Source(s):EmberRenewableenergyinvestmentsinLatinAmericancountriesfrom2013to2021(inbillionU.S.dollars)RenewableenergyinvestmentinLatinAmerica2013-2021,bycountryBrazilChileMexicoOthers2520151051.71.32.94.70.62.43.23.434.64.81.76.223.953.23.83.10.72.21.53.91.13.913.21.91.519.57.36.76.35.55.1402013201420152016201720182019202020217Description:In2021,investmentinrenewableenergiesinLatinAmericareached19.6billionU.S.dollars.Brazilwasbyfarthecountrythatheldthelargestshareofinvestments,particularlyinthelastthreeyears.From2019to2021,renewableinvestmentsinBrazilalmostdoubled,reaching13.3billionU.S.dollarsinthelatteryear.Meanwhile,investmentsinrenewableenergyinMexicoandBrazilstoodat3.4and1.3billionU.S.dollarsin2021,respectively.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2013to2021Source(s):Bloomberg;BloombergNEFLeadingcountriesforrenewableenergyinvestmentsinLatinAmericain2022(inbillionU.S.dollars)InvestmentsinrenewableenergyinselectedLatinAmericancountriesin202230252520151052110BrazilChileMexicoColombia8Description:In2022,investmentinrenewableenergyinBrazilreached25billionU.S.dollars.ThecountryisbyfarthelargestmarketforrenewableenergyinvestmentsinLatinAmerica.RenewableinvestmentsinChilestoodattwobillionU.S.dollars,andinMexicoandColombiareachedroughlyonebillionineachcountry.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2022Source(s):BloombergNEF;ClimatescopeMostattractivecountriesforrenewableenergyinvestmentinLatinAmericaasofJune2023,basedonRECAIscoreRenewableenergyattractivenessscoreinLatinAmerica2023,bycountry7062.460.7605040302010056.555.3ChileBrazilArgentinaMexico9Description:AsofJune2023,ChilewasthemostattractivecountryforrenewableenergyinvestmentsinLatinAmerica(amongsttheevaluatedcountries),withaRECAIscoreof62.4.Brazilrankedsecond,withascoreof60.7.TheRECAIrankingisdevelopedtwiceayear,andthehigherthescoreofacountry,themoreattractiveitistorenewableenergyinvestments.ReadmoreNote(s):June2023Source(s):EYCHAPTER

02TargetsTargetedrenewableenergycapacityinselectedcountriesinLatinAmericafor2030RenewablepowercapacitytargetsinselectedcountriesinLatinAmerica2030Capacityingigawatts100050150200250BrazilMexico217.2552.2Chile38.4Argentina*ColombiaCostaRica32.47194.0311Description:AsofNovember2023,Brazilhadarenewablecapacitytargetfor2030ofmorethan200gigawatts.ThiswasbyfarthehighestcapacitytargetedforthatyearinLatinAmerica.MexicoandChilehadatargetrenewablecapacityofroughly52and38gigawatts,respectively.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;asofNovember2023;*Implicittargetbasedonofficialprojectionsorcrediblethird-partystudiesSource(s):EmberRenewableelectricitygenerationsharetargetedinselectedcountriesinLatinAmericafor2030RenewableelectricitysharetargetedinselectedcountriesinLatinAmerica2030Shareinelectricitygeneration40%

50%0%10%20%30%60%70%80%90%100%ChileBrazil90%84%Argentina*Mexico47%33%12Description:AsofNovember2023,Chileplannedtoreacharenewableenergygenerationshareofroughly90percentby2030.Mexico,ontheotherhand,hadarenewablegenerationtargetof33percentforthatsameyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;asofNovember2023;*Implicittargetbasedonofficialprojectionsorcrediblethird-partystudiesSource(s):EmberRenewableenergycapacityinstalledinBrazilin2022andtargetsfor2030,bysourceInstalledandtargetedrenewablecapacityinBrazil2022-2030,bysourceWindSolarHydropower,bioenergyandotherrenewables250200150100501394712724243102022Targetfor203013/statistics/1450775/renewable-capacity-targets-brazil-by-sourceIn2022,Brazilhadatotalrenewablecapacityof175gigawatts.By2030,theLatinAmericancountryplanstoincreasethisfiguretoroughly217gigawatts.Windandsolarareexpectedtoreachatleast31and47gigawattsbythatyear,respectively.

ReadmoreNote(s):Brazil;2022Source(s):Ember;EPERenewableenergycapacityinstalledinMexicoin2022andtargetsfor2030,bysourceInstalledandtargetedrenewablecapacityinMexico2022-2030,bysourceWindSolarHydropower,bioenergyandotherrenewables605040302010017231591372022Targetfor203014Description:In2022,Mexicohadatotalrenewablecapacityof32gigawatts.By2030,theLatinAmericancountryplanstoincreasethisfiguretoroughly52gigawatts.Solarisexpectedtobetheleadingrenewableenergysourcebythatyear,reachinganinstalledcapacityofatleast23gigawatts.ReadmoreNote(s):Mexico;2022Source(s):CentroNacionaldeControldeEnergía(México);Ember;MinistryofEnergy(Mexico)RenewableenergycapacityinstalledinChilein2022andtargetsfor2030,bysourceInstalledandtargetedrenewablecapacityinChile2022-2030,bysourceWindSolarHydropower,bioenergyandotherrenewables4035302520151059147615402022Targetfor203015Description:In2022,Chilehadatotalrenewablecapacityof17gigawatts.By2030,theLatinAmericancountryplanstoincreasethisfiguretoroughly38gigawatts,morethandoublingtheoperationalcapacityin2022.Windisexpectedtobetheleadingrenewableenergysourcebythatyear,reachinganinstalledcapacityofatleast15gigawattsin2030.ReadmoreNote(s):Chile;2022Source(s):Ember;MinisteriodeEnergía(Chile)CHAPTER

03PipelineProspectiverenewablepowercapacityinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanasof2023,bystatusandenergysource(inmegawatts)RenewableenergypipelineinLatinAmerica2023,bystatusandsourceConstructionPre-constructionAnnounced250,000200,000150,000100,00050,0000WindSolarHydropowerBiopowerGeothermal17Description:In2023,windandsolarweretherenewablesourceswiththelargestprospectivecapacityacrossLatinAmerica.Theregionhadroughly230gigawattsofwindand125gigawattsofsolarinthepipeline.Ofthese,roughly13gigawattsofwindand21gigawattsofsolarwereunderconstruction.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2023*;*Thedataforthedifferentenergysourceswaslastupdatedindifferentmonths.WindandsolarcapacityisasofDecember2023,bioenergycapacityasofNovember2023,geothermalcapacityasofJuly2023,andhydropowercapacityasofMay2023Source(s):GlobalEnergyMonitorProspectivewindpowercapacityinselectedcountriesinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanasofDecember2023,bystatus(inmegawatts)WindenergypipelineinLatinAmerica2023,bystatusandcountryCapacityinmegawattsConstruction60,000Pre-construction80,000

100,000Announced120,000020,00040,000140,000160,000180,000200,000BrazilChileColombiaPeruMexicoArgentinaPanamaEcuadorDominicanRepublicCuba18Description:AsofDecember2023,BrazilhadbyfarthelargestprospectivewindpowercapacityamongLatinAmericancountries,withover138megawattsinthepipeline.Ofthese,roughly6.8gigawattswerealreadyunderconstruction,while88.3gigawattswereinthepre-constructionstage.ChileandColombiafollowedwithatotalof22.8and12.3gigawattsinthewindpowerpipeline,respectively.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;December2023;Includeswindfarmphasesover10MWSource(s):GlobalEnergyMonitorProspectiveutility-scalesolarpowercapacityinselectedcountriesinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanasofDecember2023,bystatus(inmegawatts)Utility-scalesolarenergypipelineinLatinAmerica2023,bystatusandcountryCapacityinmegawattsConstructionPre-construction80,000Announced100,000020,00040,00060,000120,000140,000160,000BrazilChileColombiaMexicoPeruDominicanRepublicArgentinaPanamaCubaEcuador19Description:AsofDecember2023,Brazilhadaprospectiveutility-scalesolarcapacityofover138gigawatts,includingroughlysixgigawattsunderconstruction,113gigawattsinthepre-constructionstage,and19gigawattsthathadbeenannounced.OthercountriesinLatinAmericawithalargeprospectivesolarcapacitywereChile,Colombia,andMexico.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;December2023;Includessolarfarmphasesover20MWSource(s):GlobalEnergyMonitorCapacityofthelargestwindfarmsunderconstructioninLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanasofJanuary2023(inmegawatts)LargestwindfarmsunderconstructioninLatinAmerica2023,bycapacityCapacityinmegawatts0100200300400500600700800900855Massarocawindfarm(Brazil)Horizontewindfarm(Chile)607LagoaDosVentos5windfarm(Brazil)BabilôniaSulwindfarm(Brazil)Guajirawindfarm(Colombia)Cameliaswindfarm(Colombia)PuntaLomitaswindfarm(Peru)Windpeshiwindfarm(Colombia)Atacamawindfarm(Chile)396360300268260205180177Wayrawindfarm(Peru)(Peru)Renaicowindfarm(Chile)144126VientosDelLoawindfarm(Chile)20Description:AsofJanuary2023,theMassarocawindfarmwasthelargestsolarfarmunderconstructioninLatinAmerica.TheonshorewindfarmislocatedinBrazilandwillhaveanoperationalcapacityof855gigawatts.

ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;asofJanuary2023Source(s):GlobalEnergyMonitorCapacityofthelargestsolarfarmsunderconstructioninLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanasofJanuary2023(inmegawatts)LargestsolarplantsunderconstructioninLatinAmerica2023,bycapacityCapacityinmegawatts0100200300400500600600700CielosDeTarapacáSolarProject(Chile)GuayepoPVSolarPark(Colombia)CEMEsolarfarm(Chile)491480SolDelLoaSolarPlantOptimizationProject(Chile)UrianaPVSolarProject(Colombia)CamposDelSolPhotovoltaicSolarPlant(Chile)IntiPachaSolarComplex(Chile)448400382350330308300300CasablancaPVsolarfarm(Brazil)IntiPachaSolarComplex(Chile)MistiPVSolarPlant(Peru)PuertaDeOroSolarProject(Colombia)IntiPachaSolarComplex(Chile)26021Description:AsofJanuary2023,theCielosDeTarapacáSolarProject,locatedinChile,wasthelargestsolarfarmunderconstructioninLatinAmerica.Thesolarfarmwillhaveanoperationalcapacityof600megawatts.Ofthe12largestsolarprojectsunderconstructioninLatinAmerica,sevenwerelocatedinChile.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;asofJanuary2023Source(s):GlobalEnergyMonitorCHAPTER

04SupplyRenewableenergysupplyinLatinAmericain2022,withaforecastuntil2050,byscenario(inpetajoules)ForecastrenewableenergysupplyinLatinAmerica2022-2050,byscenarioHistoricfiguresStatedPoliciesScenarioAnnouncedPledgesScenario35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000031,28524,16221,19219,75417,52215,91915,54713,6212030*10,492202220352040205023/statistics/1450103/renewable-energy-supply-forecast-latin-america-scenariosIn2022,energysupplyfromrenewablesourcesinLatinAmericastoodatroughly10,500petajoules.Thisfigureisforecasttoreachsome15,900petajoulesin2030and31,300petajoulesin2050ifallnationalenergyandclimatetargetsareachieved.

ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2022;*FiguresstartingfromtheyearindicatedareforecastSource(s):IEAForecastrenewableenergysupplyinLatinAmericain2030,bysourceandscenario(inpetajoules)RenewableenergysupplyforecastinLatinAmerica2030,bysourceandscenarioRenewableenergysupplyinpetajoulesAnnouncedPledgesScenario

StatedPoliciesScenario4,000

5,00001,0002,0003,0006,0007,0006,8168,0007,9059,000ModernsolidbioenergyHydropower2,7882,8431,7521,5161,322ModernliquidbioenergySolar8261,1851,013Wind306116Moderngaseousbioenergy24Description:IfallenergyandclimatetargetsareachievedinLatinAmerica,modernsolidbioenergysupplyisforecasttoreachroughly7,900petajoulesin2030.Inthatsamescenario,solarenergysupplyisprojectedtosurpass1,300petajoules.

ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2022Source(s):IEAShareofrenewablesourcesintotalenergysupplyinLatinAmerica2021,withaforecastuntil2050,byscenarioShareofrenewablesinLatinAmerica'stotalenergysupply2021-2050,byscenarioBusinessAsUsualscenarioNetZeroscenario70%58%60%50%52%48%43%40%30%20%10%0%36%30%30%30%29%28%28%28%28%28%20212025*2030203520402045205025Description:Accordingtoarecentstudy,theshareofrenewablesinLatinAmerica'stotalenergysupplywillincreasebyonlytwopercentagepointsbetween2021and2050inascenariobasedonthehistorictrajectoryoftheregion'senergysector.Meanwhile,ifadditionalmeasuresaretakentoachievecarbonneutralityby2050,theshareofrenewablesinenergysupplyisforecasttoclimbtoroughly58percent.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2021;*Figuresfrom2025onareforecastSource(s):OrganizaciónLatinoamericanadeEnergíaForecastshareofrenewablesintotalenergysupplyinLatinAmericain2030,bycountryorregion(ingigawatts)ShareofrenewablesinenergysupplyinLatinAmerica2030,bycountryorregionBusinessasusualscenarioNetzeroscenario60%49%48%50%40%30%20%10%0%47%42%38%31%28%24%22%19%18%12%CentralAmericaBrazilAndeansubregionSouthernsubregionCaribbeanMexico26Description:TheshareofrenewablesinCentralAmerica'stotalenergysupplyisforecasttorangebetween48and49percentin2030.TheCentralAmericasubregioncomprisesthecountriesofBelize,CostaRica,ElSalvador,Guatemala,Honduras,Nicaragua,andPanama.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2021Source(s):OrganizaciónLatinoamericanadeEnergíaCHAPTER

05CapacityRenewablepowercapacityinLatinAmericain2022,withaforecastuntil2050,byscenario(ingigawatts)ForecastrenewablecapacityinLatinAmerica2022-2050,byscenarioHistoricfiguresStatedPoliciesScenarioAnnouncedPledgesScenario1,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008001,5481,007847733638544542600460400314200020222030*20352040205028Description:In2022,therenewablepowercapacityinstalledacrossLatinAmericastoodatroughly314gigawatts.Thisfigureisforecasttoreachsome544gigawattsin2030and1.5terawattsin2050ifallnationalenergyandclimatetargetsareachieved.

ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2022;*FiguresstartingontheyearindicatedareforecastSource(s):IEAForecastcapacityofrenewableenergysourcesinLatinAmericain2030,bysourceandscenario(ingigawatts)ForecastrenewablecapacityinLatinAmerica2030,bysourceandscenarioCapacityingigawattsAnnouncedPledgesScenario100StatedPoliciesScenario150050200250222221HydropowerSolarPVWind1751201048738BioenergyGeothermalCSP29332129Description:IfallenergyandclimatetargetsareachievedinLatinAmerica,solarphotovoltaiccapacityisforecasttoreachroughly175gigawattsin2030.Inthesamescenario,windisexpectedtosurpass100gigawattsofinstalledcapacityandbioenergywillreachsome38gigawatts.Hydropowerisforecasttocontinuebeingthelargestsourceofrenewableenergyintheregionin2030.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2022Source(s):IEAForecastcompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)ofrenewablepowercapacityinLatinAmericafrom2022to2030,bysourceandscenarioCAGRofrenewablecapacityinLatinAmerica2022-2030,bysourceandscenarioCompoundannualgrowthrateAnnouncedPledgesScenario15%

20%StatedPoliciesScenario25%

30%0%5%10%35%40%45%42%CSPSolarPV32%18%13%12%Wind9.8%6.3%6.2%GeothermalBioenergyHydropower2.9%2.5%1.2%1.2%30Description:Concentratedsolarpower,solarphotovoltaics,andwindpowerareforecasttobethefastest-growingrenewableenergysourcesinLatinAmerica.Ifallenergyandclimatetargetsareachievedintheregion,solarPVwillgrowwithanaverageannualrateof18percentuntil2030,whereaswindenergywillhaveaCAGRofsome12percent.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2022Source(s):IEASolarandwindinstalledcapacitynetadditionsinLatinAmericafrom2017to2027,bycountry(ingigawatts)LatinAmerica:solarandwindcapacitynetadditions2017-2027,bycountryBrazilMexicoChileArgentinaPeruColombiaUruguayOthers3025201510502017201820192020202120222023*202420252026202731Description:Brazilinstalledsome16.8gigawattsofwindandsolarin2023.BrazilwasbyfarthecountrywiththelargestcapacityadditionsacrossLatinAmerica.Itisforecastthatsolarandwindcapacityadditionsintheregionwillsurpass20gigawattsannuallyinthefollowingfiveyears.ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2017to2022;Solaradditionsdonotincludesmall-scalePV;*FiguresfromthisyearonareforecastsSource(s):Bloomberg;BloombergNEF;Varioussources(ONS,CENACE,CNE,CAMMESA)CHAPTER

06GenerationRenewableelectricitygenerationinLatinAmericain2022,withaforecastuntil2050,byscenario(interawatthours)ForecastrenewablepowerproductioninLatinAmerica2022-2050,byscenarioHistoricfiguresStatedPoliciesScenarioAnnouncedPledgesScenario5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005004,4602,8422,6052,0751,93720401,6401,5751,3951,089020222030*2035205033/statistics/1450139/renewable-power-production-forecast-latin-america-scenariosIn2022,renewableelectricitygenerationinLatinAmericastoodatroughly1.1terawatthours.Thisfigureisforecasttoreachsome1.8terawatthoursin2030and4.5terawatthoursin2050ifallnationalenergyandclimatetargetsareachieved.

ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2022;*FiguresstartingfromtheyearindicatedareforecastSource(s):IEAForecastrenewableelectricitygenerationinLatinAmericain2030,bysourceandscenario(interawatthours)RenewablepowerproductionforecastinLatinAmerica2030,bysourceandscenarioElectricitygenerationinterawatthoursAnnouncedPledgesScenario

StatedPoliciesScenario500

6000100200186300400700800781900HydropowerWind797329281305SolarPVBioenergyGeothermalCSP13111119159534Description:Inastatedpoliciesscenario,hydropowerproductionisforecasttoreachsome800terawatthoursin2030.Inthatsamescenario,windandsolarareprojectedtogenerate281and186terawatthoursofelectricity,respectively.

ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2022Source(s):IEAShareofrenewablesinelectricitygenerationinLatinAmericain2021,withaforecastuntil2050,byscenarioShareofrenewablesinLatinAmerica'selectricityproduction2021-2050,byscenarioBusinessAsUsualscenarioNetZeroscenario90%80%80%76%74%72%68%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%64%64%64%63%62%62%62%57%57%20212025*2030203520402045205035Description:Accordingtoarecentstudy,theshareofrenewablesinLatinAmerica'selectricitygenerationisforecasttoincreasefrom57percentin2021to54percentin2050inascenariobasedonthehistorictrajectoryoftheregion'senergysector.Ifadditionalmeasuresaretakentoachievecarbonneutralityby2050,theshareofrenewablesinelectricityproductionisprojectedtoreachroughly80percentbythatyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2021;*Figuresfrom2025onareforecastSource(s):OrganizaciónLatinoamericanadeEnergíaForecastshareofrenewableelectricitygenerationinLatinAmericain2030,bycountryorregion(ingigawatts)RenewableshareofelectricityproductioninLatinAmerica2030,bycountryorregionBusinessasusualscenarioNetzeroscenario90%83%81%77%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%74%73%72%67%56%50%30%30%23%AndeansubregionBrazilCentralAmericaSouthernsubregionMexicoCaribbean36Description:TheshareofrenewablesinelectricitygenerationinLatinAmerica'sAndeansubregionisforecasttorangebetween81and83percentin2030.ThissubregioncomprisesthecountriesofBolivia,Colombia,Ecuador,Perú,andVenezuela

ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2021Source(s):OrganizaciónLatinoamericanadeEnergíaCHAPTER

07MarketsizeMarketsizeoftherenewableenergysectorinLatinAmericafrom2020to2022,withaforecastuntil2030(inbillionU.S.dollars)ForecastrenewablemarketvalueinLatinAmerica2020-2030250195.47200177.05161.06147.0715010050134.76123.85114.12105.4197.5690.48202184.052020020222023*202420252026202720282029203038Description:ThemarketsizeoftherenewableenergysectorinLatinAmericagrewfromroughly84billionU.S.dollarsin2020tomorethan97billionU.S.dollarsin2022.By2030,thesectorisforecasttoreachamarketsizeof195billionU.S.dollars.

ReadmoreNote(s):LAC;2020to2022;*FiguresstartingonthisyearareforecastSource(s):ExtrapolateLeadingcountriesintherenewableenergysectorinLatinAmericain2022withaforecastfor2030,