CostManagementPartTwoAugust2022在卡尔加里大学学习时的项目管理培训资料

Classification:Internal2011-04-04

PROJECTCOSTMANAGEMENTCalgary,October2013,JohnZhao,MSc.PARTTWO:AdvancedDISCLAIMERWithoutwrittenconsentfromtheauthor,thewholeorpartofthispresentationshallnotbeusedforanycommercialactivitiessuchasconsultancyservices.Properreferencesshallbemadeifanypartofthisslidedeckisextractedortakenoutofcontext.Theinformationinthispresentationonlyreflectstheauthor’spersonalviewandhisownresearchandexperiences.Heshallnotbeheldliableforany“misuse”ofanydatainthisslidedeckbyanyindividual.AfternoonSessionAgenda–Advanced(1)Chap6.ProjectCostForecastingTechniques DifficultyinCostForecasting EarnedValueAnalysis/Calculation StochasticMethodforForecasting TrendingMethod(ETC)Chap7.ProjectPerformanceReporting CostCurves(S-Curve) PerformanceReporting CostVarianceAnalysis RICSandICECCostProfessionalsChap8.ProjectChangeManagement ChangeManagement ManagementofChange(MOCs) MOCProcessandExample ContractClaimandChangeOrdersAfternoonSessionAgenda–Advanced(2)Chap9.ProjectStatusReporting ImportanceofProjectStatusReporting ProjectStatusReportandkeyElements ReportResponsibilitiesandCostAnalysis ProjectControls’MazeandSummaryChap10.QuestionsandDiscussions

WhatisEarnedValue? -terminology -EVanalysis

Whenshould“S”curvebeused? -typesofScurve -Scurveanalysis

WhowillberesponsibleforChangeManagement? -MOCProcess -ChangeOrders

WheretofindProjectStatusReport? -keyelementsinthereport -costanalysisChapter0-0:Terminology–术语CostAccounting成本会计Forecasting预测EarnedValue挣值

Trending趋势Simulation模拟SCurveS曲线ProgressandPerformance进度和效能QuantitySurveying工料测量ChangeManagement变更管理ChangeOrder变更单CostReporting成本报告CostandSchedule成本和进度Benchmarks基准CostAnalysis成本分析Chapter6-1:EasyActuals–CostAccounting（财务）Chapter6-2:HardForecasting–Prediction（预测）Usingtheeducation,knowledge,experienceandwiththeassistanceofstatisticaldata,youareobligedtopredictfutureoutcome.Chapter6-3:Estimatorvs.Forecaster（预算和预测）CostEstimator:Anapproximationoftheprobablecostofaproduct,program,orproject,computedonthebasisofavailableinformationbeforetheworkstarts.CostForecaster:Basedontheworkcompletedandcostsexpendedatanygiventime,acostforecasterdeterminesthevaluesoftheremainingactivitiesandestimatestheprobablefinalcoststocompletesuchactivitiesinconsiderationofproductivities,changemanagementandinitialinadequacyofinformationusingtheestablishedworkprocesstoadaptcostplanningtoconstantlychangingcircumstances.(itiscalledCostEngineer/Specialist)Chapter6-4:EarnedValueManagementConcept挣值EarnedValueManagement(EVM)generatesearlywarningsignalstotimelydetectproblemsandisawell-knowntechniquetocontrolthetimeandcostperformanceofaprojectandtopredictthefinalprojectdurationandcost.Chapter6-5:ProjectCostForecastCurves成本预测图Whatistheprobleminthischart?Plannedtospend38%ofbudgetfor40%progressActuallyspent45%ofBudgetfor40%progressChapter6-6:FormulaofEarnedValueForecast公式(AFE)Budgetatcompletion(BAC)isthetotalbudgetallocatedtotheproject.alsoreferredtoasthebudgetedcostofworkscheduled(BCWS).(Forecast)EstimateAtCompletion(EAC)istheestimatedcostoftheprojectattheendoftheproject.Earnedvalue(EV):Theapprovedbudgetfortheworkactuallycompletedbythespecifieddate;alsoreferredtoasthebudgetedcostofworkperformed(BCWP).Actualcost(AC):Thecostsactuallyincurredfortheworkcompletedbythespecifieddate;alsoreferredtoasthe

actualcostofworkperformed(ACWP).EstimateAtCompletion=ActualCost+(BudgetAtCompletion–EarnedValue)EarnedValue=BudgetatCompletionxpercentageofcompletionCostPerformanceIndex(CPI)=EarnedValue/ActualCostCPI=1:ontrack;CPI>1:VeryEfficient;CPI<1:LessEfficient;Chapter6-7:FormulaofEVForecast挣质法预测Expenditures/CostsCPI=(EV/AC)>1.0EV=(BAC)x40%40%EAC=AC+(BAC–EV)$24M=$3M=($25M-$4M)EACPV$10M@40%progressActual$3MEarned$4M=$10Mx40%$25MChapter6-8:StochasticMethodForecasting

随机法预测Anewmethodforforecastingprojecttimeandcostofatcompletion(EAC)and/oratanygiventimehorizon.Themethod,basedonMonteCarloSimulation,isdesignedtoovercomelimitationsofcurrentapplicationsofearnedvaluemethod(EVM)inforecastingprojectcostanddurations.

TheMonteCarloSimulationisbasedonprobabilisticprocessanditenablestheusertoassesstheuncertaintyassociatedwithforecastedprojectactivities(i.e.costandduration)atprojectcompletionsothatappropriatecorrectiveactions(i.e.extracostsandtime)canbeforecasted,whenneeded.

Chapter6-9:Exampleof@RISKSimulationEACVARACBACCAT.RISKChapter6-10:ForecastbasedonTrending趋势法预测BACVAREACDeterministicApproachChapter7-1:Famous“S“Curve“S”曲线“S”curveisadisplayofcumulativecosts,laborhoursorotherquantitiesplottedagainsttime.ThenamederivesfromtheS-likeshapeofthecurve,flatteratthebeginningandendandsteeperinthemiddle,whichistypicalofmostprojects.Thebeginningrepresentsaslow,deliberatebutacceleratingstart,whiletheendrepresentsadecelerationastheworkrunsout.EXAMPLE:ManHoursvs.TimeS-Curve:Thistypeofanalysisissuitableforprojectsthatareestimatedaslaborintensive,inwhichtheprojectmanagerhastoknowthecumulativeamountofmanhoursworkedataspecificstageoftheproject.Resultsofthegraphwillprovidethebasisforadjustment,whetherthereisunderperformancethatwarrantsadditionallaborforceortheimplementationofclosersupervision.Chapter7-2:Typesof“S“Curve种类ProgressSCurve:SCurveswithearlyandlatedates:QuantitySCurve:Cash-flowSCurve:OtherSpecificSCurves(e.g.man-hours):Chapter7-3:Man-hourSCurve人工小时曲线ManHoursvs.TimeS-Curve:issuitableforprojectsoflaborintensive,PMneedstoknowthecumulativeamountofmanhoursworkedataspecificstageoftheproject.Resultsofthegraphwillprovidethebasisforadjustmentofeithertargetorforecast.Chapter7-4:“S“CurveAnalysisforForecastingTheactualdataisplottedalongwiththeearlyandlatedateinformationfromtheschedule.Theanalysisindicatesthataslongastheactualdatafallsbetweentheearlyandlatedatesandtheforecastedcompletionisonorbeforetheenddate,theprojectisingoodstanding.Chapter7-5:ProgressandPerformance进度和表现ProgressandPerformanceMeasurementistheprocessofmeasuringtheexpenditureonaprojectandthedegreeofcompletion,aswellasobservationsofhowworkisbeingperformed.Performanceassessmentmethodsinclude -Earnedvalueanalysis, -EAC/ETCForecasting, -WorkSamplingProductivityanalysis, -PhysicalInstalledQuantitySurveying, -ResourceExpenditure/BurnedLabourHours, -PercentageofActualProjectCompletion-Time; -PercentageofActualProjectExpenditure-Costs; -ProductivitiesandCPI/SPI;Chapter7-6:CostVarianceAnalysisCostvarianceanalysisistheprocessofcalculatingthedifferencebetweenanincurredcost(actualcost)andanexpectedcost(budgetedcost),investigatingthereasonsforthedifference,reportingthisinformationandthentakingcorrectiveactionorproperlyforecasttheEACinconsiderationofvariances. -MaterialPriceVariance(budgetvs.purchased) -QuantityVariance(MTOvs.installed) -LaborRateVariance(publishedwagesvs.paid) -LaborEfficiencyVariance(productivityfactors) -ControllableOverheadVariance(estimatedvs.actual)ThevarianceanalysiscanbeperformedatvariousWBSorCOAlevelsoratCWP/EWPlevels.Therearenogoodorbadvariancesbutallrequiredefensibleexplanations.Chapter7-7:CostSpecificFunctions -CostAnalysisandReporting -ContractManagementandAdministration -CostBenchmarkingAnalysis -ProductivityAnalysis -FieldInstalledQuantitySurveying -ProgressMeasurementbyQSACostEngineer,orQuantitySurveyor,isaprofessionalwhosepracticesareregulatedbybodiessuchasAACE,RICS,ICEC,CIOB,etc.Chapter7-8:QuantitySurveying-RICSTheRoyalInstitutionofCharteredSurveyorswasfoundedinLondonin1868Chapter7-9:CostEngineeringCouncilTheprojectcostprofessionalisnowrecognizedasadistinctprofessionaldisciplinearoundtheglobe.Thescopeofservicesarebroadembracingthetotalcostmanagementframeworktoeffectivelyservicetheirclients.Chapter8-1:ChangeManagementChangeisdefinedasanydeviationorvariationfromtheapprovedbaselineplanresultinginscope,costandtimeadditionorreduction.ChangeManagementisastructuredprocessthatwillcauseproposedchangestobereviewedfortechnicalandbusinessmeritsinaconsistentmannerthatcanbeincorporatedintorevisedplanorforecasts.ProjectChangeManagementisasetofproceduresusedtoensurethatproposedchangesareintroducedinacontrolledandcoordinatedmannerthatwouldaltertheproject’sbaselineplan.ProjectScopeChangeisanadditionorreductiontoproject’soriginaldesignintentandbusinessdesignbasisresultingincostandtimere-baseline.Chapter8-2:WhyChangeManagement?ChangesareinevitableduetoprinciplesofContinuousImprovementProcess(CIP)andValueImprovementProcess(VIP);Projects’MasterPlan,developedawayfromconstructionsiteandwayaheadofconstructionactivities,issubjecttoriskreviewsandrevisionstoincorporatemitigationefforts.Businesscasesmayrequirechangestorealizeadditionalvaluesduringprojectexecution;andsuchvaluesmayoutpacethecostsfromProjectLifecyclepointofview.Changesmayenabletheprojectteamtotakenecessarycorrectiveactionstofixthepotentialproblemsinatimelymannertoavoidfurthercostoverrunsandscheduleslippage;ChangeManagementispartofCostEstimatePlan/keyassumptions.Chapter8-3:NewTechnologyDrivesChangeUSDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)R&DSpendingbyEnergyTechnologyChapter8-4:ManagementofChange(MOC)ManagementofChange(MOC)isdefinedas“aprocesstoevaluateandproperlymanageanyaddition,reductionormodificationstodesigns,systems,facilitiesoroperationsoftheexistingbusinesscase/processresultinginbusinessscopechanges.”MOCprocedureshouldbeemployedtoensurethat:HSE,cost&schedulerisksthroughchangesaremanaged;Qualityofprojectisnotjeopardizedbecauseofchanges;Majorchangestoprojectbasesaretrackedanddocumented;Changesareconsistentwithprojectobjectives;Changesmustsupporttheintentofbusinesscase;Chapter8-5:ExampleofMOC–ScopeChangeChapter8-6:MOCProcess-InternalInitiateandpresentchangerequesttoCCB

OnlyChangeControlBoardmembers/delegatescanpresentIllustratethebenefitsandimpactsofthechange

ProjectControlsassessandestimatecostandtimeimpactsCCBmembersdiscussandvoteforApproval/Rejection

AllCCBmembersattendChangereviewmeetingsApprovedChangeRequestsisdocumentedinDecisionLog

ChangeRequestsshallbesignedbyPMTforitsstatusCCBMembersareresponsibleforimplementingChanges

IndividualmembertoimplementapprovedchangesChangeControlBoard(CCB)meetingsareheldonceamonth@60minutes.Projectcontrolsisresponsibleforincorporatingchangestooverallprojectcostandscheduleforecasts.Chapter8-7:ContractClaimsandDisputesAContractArbitrationclauseisamethodof"alternativedisputeresolution"wherebythepartiestothecontractagreethattheirdisputewillberesolvedbyarbitrationratherthanthroughthecourtsystem.Arbitrationisquicker,andsavestimeandeffort.Acceleration:completingorattemptingtocompletetheoriginalscopeofworkearlierthanthecontractCardinalChange:wasthe“modifiedjob”thesameasagreedforordidthechangefundamentallyalterthenatureoftheworkbeingconstructed?ConstructiveChange:entitlementpermitscontractorstobepaidunderthechangesclause,evenwherenochangeorderhasbeenissued.ContractTermination:thecontractormaybeentitledtorecoverthelossofprofit,orthedifferenceofthecontractpriceandthecostofthework.ScheduleDelay:atleastonecriticalpathworkscheduleactivityhasstartedlaterthanplanned,orthedurationhasbeenextendedlonger.DirectedChange:Aowner’sunilateralchangetothetermsandconditionsofthecontractandcontractorisentitledtoreceivingChangeOrders.WorkSuspension:thisentitlementisnowanessentialcomponentfortherecoveryofunabsorbedhomeofficeoverheadcostsbythecontractor.Chapter8-8:ContractChangeOrdersChangeOrderprocessistypicallystipulatedincontractswithspecificclauses.Changestoaconstructioncontractrequiretheagreementofallpartiesandinwriting.Achangeorderauthorizationisatoolfortrackingchangesthatdifferfromtheagreedscopeinthecontract.ProperChangeOrderprocesshelpstopreventunforeseenclaims.Chapter8-9:TypesofChangeOrdersChangeOrdersaretypicallyrequestedandissuedinAfixedsumorthefixedpricecontractLump-sumTurn-keycontractTargetcostorCostplusprofitsharingcontractsTimeandMaterials(T&M)basedununitpriceChapter9-1:ProjectStatusReportingProjectStatusReportsareusedtodocument,trackandinformprojectteamoftheaccomplishments,risks,challenges,resources,progress,sustainabilityandsupportneededtomaintainprojects’plan.Themonthlyreportsareanimportantresourceforprojectdecision-makerstostayinformedabouttheirfinancialcommitmentsandon-goingprojectissues.

Chapter9-2:KeyElementsinStatusReportFEED:ProgressCurveMilestoneDatesChapter9-3:ReportingResponsibility–ACostEngineerIssueprojectCoststatusreporting,forecastingcostprofileCostControlDatareconciliationanddataintegrationChairmonthlycostForecastandTrendreviewmeetingsPreparemonthlycashflowforecastandcontingencystatusIssuethestatusofManagementofChange(MOC)/trendsEstablishmonthlycostandschedulebaselinealignmentReviewforapprovalofRequisitionsandPayitemsbyPMChapter9-4:ACostReportandAnalysisAnalyses: Theprojectspentabout41%ofitsapprovedbudgetagainsttheactual physicalprogressof38%(confirmedbyPlanner); TheratiosofactualcoststodatetobudgetsintheCOAofFieldDirect costs,FieldIndirectCostsandEngineeringseemtobealignedat40%; Sofartheprojecthasburned35%oflabourman-hoursbutat31%ofits labourcosts,suggestingthatactualwages/labourratesarelower;Chapter9-5:ProjectCostControls’Labyrinth“ProjectCostControl:TheWayitWorks”ByR.MaxWidemanChapter9-6:CommonProjectCostProblemsAccordingtoCEIM(Thailand)research,regardlessofthecostandcontrolsystem,projectsoftenexperiencethefollowingcommoncostproblems:

•Poorestimatingtechniques/standards,resultinginunrealisticbudgets;

•Out-of-sequencestartingandcompletionofactivitiesandevents

•Inadequateworkbreakdownstructure

•Nomanagementpolicyonreportingandcontrolpractices

•Poorworkdefinitionatthelowerlevelsoftheorganization

•Management(subjectively)reducingbudgetsorbidstobecompetitive

•Inadequateformalplanningthatresultsinuncontrolledscopeincreases

•Poorcomparisonofactualcostsandplannedcosts(budgets)

•Comparisonandanalysisofcostsatthewronglevelofmanagement

•Inadequatecontingencyforunforeseentechnical/executionrisks

•Inadequatecostsforscheduledelaysthatrequireovertimeoridletime

•unrealisticmaterialcostescalationfactorsbuiltintoestimatesChapter9-7:CostandScheduleIntegrationCostandschedulecontrolRelationshipsbetweentimeandcostiscomplexbutwithobviousinter-dependency.Itisraretofindonesingleprojectcontrolsystemthatintegratecost-andschedule-controlfunctions.Chapter9-8:Benchmarking(基准，参照物)BENCHMARKING(AACEi)-Ameasurementandanalysisprocessthatcomparespractices,processes,andrelevantmeasurestothoseofaselectedbasisofcomparison(i.e.,thebenchmark)withthegoalofimprovingperformance.I.P.A.(IndependentProjectAnalysis)performsbenchmarkforsimilarprojectsforcostandtime.AnExampleofFELIndex(left)showsaproject’sstatustotheothers.Chapter9-9:SummaryofProjectCostManagementProjectCostControlisanintegralpartofsoundProjectManagementinEPCworld;adisciplinethatinterfaceswithmulti-facadesofprojectdesign&executionfromofficetosite;Ateamthatmonitorsandreportsproject’scostandschedule/risk;Agroupresponsibletoforecastproject’soutcomes(cost/time).

PMBOKdefinesProjectControlsas“aprojectmanagementfunctionthatinvolvescomparingactualperformancewithplannedperformanceandtakingappropriatecorrectiveactionthatwillyieldthedesiredoutcomeintheprojectwhensignificantdifferencesexist.”Chapter10-1:DiscussionA（讨论）WhatisCostEngineering?

-apartoftechnicalandengineeringdisciplinetoestimateCAPEX andtoevaluateprojecteconomicsfromprojectlifecycleaspects; -usingappropriatetechniquestoforecastoverallprojectcostsat anygiventimebymonitoringprojectchanges;Whowillberesponsibleforoverallprojectcostcontrols?

-projectmanagerisheldoverallresponsibleforprojectcost estimatesandcostexpendituresaswellasMOCs; -projectcontrolsmanagerassistPMtoensurethecostestimates areproperlypreparedandcosts/schedulearetimelyreportedfor anydeviationsfromtheplannedpath.Chapter10-2:DiscussionBWhenshouldWBSbeestablished?

-WBSwasdevelopedin1957byDoDaspartofPERTandthe 100%RuleforWBSstatesthattheWBSincludes100%ofthe workdefinedbytheprojectscopeandcapturesalldeliverablesin termsoftheworktobecompleted,includingprojectmanagement. -acompleteWBSneedstobeestablishedattheDBM/FEED.Whereisthebestplacetocontrolprojectcosts?

-costestimates/AFEarepreparednormallyinhomeofficein conjunctionwithengineeringanddesigndisciplines; -costcontrolactivitiesarebestperformedinconstructionsite/ fabricationyardbasedonquantitysurveying/workprogress.Chapter10-3:DiscussionCWhatisEarnedValue? Earnedvalue(EV)isatrackingmetricwhichmeasurestheactual amountofworkaccomplished,regardlessoftheeffortexpended.

Earnedvaluemanagement(EVM)isaprojectmanagementtechnique formeasuringprojectprogressinanobjectivemanner.EVMhasthe abilitytocombinemeasurementsofscope,schedule,andcostinasingle integratedsystem.Whenshould“S”curvebeused? Assoonasanas-plannedprojectschedule(levelII)isdevelopedand reviewed,itshouldbethebasistoplotandidentifytheasplannedcost S-Curveswhichshouldbestrepresentproject’sintentionandobjectives.Chapter10-4:DiscussionDWhowillberesponsibleforChangeManagement?

ProjectManagerisresponsibleforinitiating,reviewingandapprovingthe projectchangeshowevertheprojectcontrolsmanagerorcostengineer implementstheprocessandkeepsthechangelog,includingcontract changeorders(inconjunctionwithcontractmanager).WheretofindprojectCostStatus?

Projectcontrolsmanagerorcostengineerisresponsibletoprepareand issueonaregularbasistheprojectStatusReport,inwhichcoststatus andschedulestatusreportscanbefound.

Whatdoesanownercompany“want’fromEPCfirms?

EPCMConference,Calgary,Oct.152013

JohnZhao,StatoilCanadaLtd.

WhatdoesanownerwantfromEPCs?FacilityPerformanceGuaranteeforthedesignandinstallationCostandTimeGuaranteeforProjectExecutionMinimizedHSEIncidentsDominatingContractTypeForAlbertaoilandgasprojects(nonegovernmental),themajorityofcontractsareNOTexecutedinDesignandBuild,orLump-sumTurnkey(LSTK)packagedeals.CostReimbursablecontractsinoil/gasindustrydominatetheAlbertamarket.Lump-sumareforsmallprojectsonlyCurtseyofJacquelineO’ToolePEngandDr.GeorgeJergeasPEng,Sept.2010ReporttoAlbertaFinancePerformanceGuaranteeBondThedisconnectionbetween“engineeringdesign”(EPHouses)and“fieldexecution”(ConstructionContractors)haslargelydeterminesthefailureof“PerformanceGuarantee”requirements,hencetherearenoperformancebonds.FewerEPCfirmsinAlbertaoil/gassectoraregearedtotakeonE.P.C.lump-sumfordesignandbuildsuretybonds.It’snotaboutindividualcontractobligationperformancebutFacilityOperatingPerformancemeetingalldesigncriteriaandrequirements.AmissionimpossibleinAlberta!

e.g.LongLakeProject,T