ethiopianpowersectordevelopmentplan埃塞俄比亚电力公司介绍

PowersystemplanningofficeNovember20101HIGHLIGHTSONPOWERSECTORDEVELOPMENTPROGRAM

(2010TO2015G.C)2BackgroundRapidandsustainableeconomicgrowthisthekeyobjectiveoftheEthiopianeconomicpolicy.Achievingthegoalofrapidandsustainableeconomicgrowth

requiresrapidandsustainabledevelopmentofkeysectorslikepower,roadetc..Thepowersectorisataninfantstage&isrequiredtogrowasfastaspossibletocopewiththeintendedrapideconomicgrowth.TheinterconnectedSystem(ICS)generationcapacityhasgrownsignificantlyinrecentyearsduetotheadditionofTikeze,GibeIIandBeles.Thesystemhastotalinstalledcapacityof1947MW,andanaverageenergygenerationcapabilityof6571GWh/year.Allofthiscapacityisnotavailabletosupplytheelectricitydemandduetoconstraintsinthetransmissionanddistributionsystems.Inthefiscalyear2010theconstrainedgenerationhasreachedto4013GWh.Duetothehugeeffortexertedonthegridbasedruralelectrification,thefigureforelectricityaccessreachedto41%ofthepopulationfromthe17%figurebackin2005.Per-capitaenergygenerationhasreachedto82kwh.(500Kwhisconsideredtheaverageminimumlevelofconsumptionper-capitaforreasonablequalityoflife).3Background...Thislevelofconsumptionper-capita(500Kwh)correspondstoannualelectricityconsumptionof40000GWhbasedoncurrentpopulationanditisaboutsixtimeshigherthanthecurrentelectricitygeneration.Thereissignificantgenerationresourceinaregionalcontext(especiallyhydropower)beyondownrequirementinthenearfutureandtobedevelopedforpowerexport.Ethiopia’shydropowerresources,whicharedistributedinninemajorriverbasinsandtheirinnumerabletributariesareestimatedtogenerate650TerraWattHour/yr(CESEN1986).Thetechnicallyfeasiblepotentialisestimatedtobe40%ofthetheoreticalpotentiali.e.260TWh/yr(45GWequivalentwith65%plantfactor).Thiswouldconstituteabout15%ofthetotaltechnicallyfeasiblepotentialofAfrica,whichis1750TWH/yr(Internationaljournalonhydropower&dams,2006).Inadditionthereisanestimatedgeothermalpotentialofabout5000MW.AlsothereareWindpower,Solar,CoalandNaturalgaspotentialstobeharnessedforelectricpowergeneration.

Thelowestlevelofelectricityaccessandpercapitaconsumptioninitselfjustifiesthefastdevelopmentofthecountriesgenerationresources.4Background...Regionalinterconnectioninitiatives(EAPP,ENPTetc…)areonthevergeofimplementationwithassuranceofshorttermpotentialmarketforpowerexport.AtthispointthereisageneralconsensusthatthereislocalandpotentialregionaldemandtoabsorbthecapacityoffuturegenerationprojectsinEthiopia.Torecognizepotentialregionaldemandasactualhoweverrequiresthesigningofpowerpurchaseagreementinviewoffacilitatingthefinancingofmajorprojectsfrominternationalfinancinginstitutions.Financeandexecutioncapacityareconsideredtobetheonlysetbacksfordevelopmentofthepowersector,notthepowermarket.Theexecutioncapacityofthecorporationinallprocessareasisexpectedtobeimprovedthroughimplementationofthecorporatetransformationprogram.5Background...Sowithintheabovenotedcontexts,apowersectordevelopmentplancouldbepreparedwiththeobjectiveofmeetingthenationaldemandasprioritywhileatthesametimeavailingsurpluspowerforexportfromalistofgenerationprojectsstudiedtoprefeasibility/feasibilitylevel,asdemandisnotconsideredanissueofcontention.However,judiciouslypreparednationaldemandforecastisalwaysnecessaryforbetterunderstandingandeffectivemanagementofthepowersector,especiallywithintheframeworkofregionalpowertrading.Alsorealisticdemandforecastisacrucialbasisfortransmissionplanningwhereyoudon’tneedsurpluscapacity.

6Inthelastthreedecades,severalstudieshavebeencarriedouttodefineEthiopia’senergypotentialandtodevelopappropriateinvestmentprogramsforthepowersector.Negligibleportionoftheestimatedpotentialisharnessed.

OnJune1999EEPCOhasengagedInternationalconsultancyfirmtoundertakeapowersystemExpansionMasterPlanStudy(EPSEMP)ina25yearsplanninghorizon.Theplanforthefirst10yearswasdetailedtobeadoptedassectordevelopmentprogram,whereastheplanfortheremaining15yearswasindicativetoprovidelongterminsightfordecisionmakers.EEPCOhasrevisedtheEPSEMPandpreparedtheEthiopianPowerSystemsExpansionMasterPlanUpdate(EPSEMPU)inApril2004andJune2006,takingintoaccountallthemajorchangesthathaveoccurredinthecountryandwithinEEPCOsincetheformulationoftheMasterplan(EPSEMP).

Background...7Sincetheupdateofthe2006masterplan,thestudylevelofnewhydroprojectsisadvanced,additionalregionalinterconnectionstudiesarecompleted,constructionofnewhydroprojecthascommenced,andstillmorearecommitted,understudyorsiteidentification.TheEthiopiangovernmenthasgivenitshighestprioritytothedevelopmentofthepowersectorsothatitsteerstheplannedtransitiontotheindustryledeconomy.Thereforeanupdateofthegenerationandtransmissionexpansionprogramthatwasrecommendedinthe2006Masterplanisrequiredtoaccommodatetheselatestdevelopments.Background...8

POWERDEMANDFORECAST9ForthetargetscenariotheannualGDPgrowthrateisassumedtobe15%asputinthetargetoftheGrowthandTransformationplan(GTP)ofthecountry.Thisresultsinto32%annualelectricityenergydemandgrowth.FortheModerateIscenarioafiveyearhistoricaverageof11%GDPgrowthisassumed.Basedontheaboveelasticityfigurethistranslatestoa24%annualenergydemandgrowth.FortheModerateIIscenarioa13%annualGDPgrowthrate,whichismedianbetweenthetwogrowthratesisassumed.Thecorrespondingannualenergydemandgrowthwillthenbecome28%.Threeelectricdemandforecastscenariosweredeveloped,namelytheTraget,ModerateIandModerateIIscenarios.FromthehistoricaltotalenergygenerationfigureandGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)datademandelasticityisdeterminedtobe2.15.Thefollowingassumptionsweretakenforthegrowthratesoftheindependentvariable(GDP)inthedevelopmentoftheTarget,ModerateIandModerateIIscenarios:ForecastMethodologyandAssumptions10Generationrequirement&PeakLoadForecastMethodologyandAssumptionsctd Theforecastsarefirstpreparedasenergygenerationforecast.TheEnergyGenerationfigurethusisconvertedtoPeakdemandvalueusingthreeyearsaverageloadfactorof57%.11

Target,ModerateIandModerateIIforecastNationalDemandforecastresults12

ModerateIModerateIITarget

EnergyPeakEnergyPeakEnergyPeakYear(GWh)(MW)(GWh)(MW)(GWh)(MW)20024,5358594,5358594,53585920035,5781,1175,8051,1635,9861,19920046,8611,3747,4301,4887,9021,58320058,4391,6909,5111,90510,4302,089200610,3802,07912,1742,43813,7682,757200712,7672,55715,5823,12118,1743,64013Projectedsystemneed(2015)ModerateIdemandforecast(11%GDPGrowth)

Energy:12767GWhCapacity:2557MW

ModerateIIdemandforecast(13%GDPGrowth)

Energy:15582GWhCapacity:3121MW

Targetdemandforecast(15%GDPgrowth)

Energy:18174GWhCapacity:3640MW

14

SUPPLYDEMANDBALANCE15SupplyandDemandBalance

Theanalysis

beginswithestablishingthecapacityofthesystemasitexistsinyear2011andbyrelatingittothecurrentdemand.

Energy(GWh)Power(Mw)Year2011Demand–Target(32%)Year2011Demand–ModerateI(24%)Year2011Demand–ModerateII(28%)598655785805119911171163Year2011SupplyCapability54201191Balance-TargetBalance-ModerateIBalance-ModerateII-566-158-385-8742816SupplyandDemandBalance

Thecomparisonismadeforthethreescenarios.Inallthethreescenariostherewillbeenergydeficit.Capacityshortageoccursonlyifthedemandfollowsthehighestgrowthpattern,whichistheTargetscenario.Theenergydeficitisexpectedtorangebetween566GWhand158GWh.ThehighestdeficitcorrespondstodemandgrowthscenariooftheTargetforecastandthelowestdeficitisexpectedifthedemandgrowsaspertheModerateIgrowthpattern.TheanalysisonthesupplydemandsituationconsidersEEPCO’sreserverequirement.Thisreserveissettobethebiggestunitsizeinthesystem.Accordinglythe8MWsupplyshortfallindicatedinthetableabove,showsthatontheconditionthatthereisoutageofoneunitduringthesystempeakhourtherewillbe8MWsupplyshortfallotherwiseallcapacitydemandedwillbeserved.Duetoheavyworkloadinrecentmonthsandalsotransmissioncapacityproblemsabout644MWexistinggenerationcapacityisnotavailableandthereforenotconsideredinthesupplydemandbalanceanalysis.AdditionalGenerationfromAmertineshiisalsoexpectedandisincludedinthisyear’ssupplycapacity.

17SupplyandDemandBalance

Withthesupplylevelthatwillbereachedonyear2011(alreadyconstructedplants+Amertineshe),additionalgenerationamountingto1722MW/11150GWhisrequiredinordertosatisfythedemanduptoyear2015.ThisisfortheTargetdemandscenario.Fortheothertwoscenariostherequirementwillbelessthanthis.Inordertocoverthesignificantdeficitthatwouldhaveotherwiseoccurredbetweentheyears2011-2015,additionalnewgenerationcapacitiesindicatedinTableIbelowarerequired.

18TableI.CommissioningYearOfCommittedPowerPlants

NameofHydroElectricPowerPlant

No.ofUnitsxCapacity

PlantInstalledCapacity(MW)

YearOnLine

PlantsUnderconstructionAndCommitted

I.1

HydroElectricPowerPlants

GibeIIIHEPProject

10x

GenaleDawaIII

3x

84.66253.982015

ChemogaYedaI

2x

811622015

ChemogaYedaII

2x

591182015

HaleleWarabesaHEPPProjectStage1

2x

48.00.

962015

HaleleWarabessaHEPPProjectStage2

4

81.53262015

GebaI

3x

71.68215.042015

GenaleDawaVI

2x

1232462015I.2

GeothermalPlants

AlutoLangIIGeothermal

1x

75752014I.3

WindParks

Adama1WindPark

34x

1.5512011

AshegodaWindPark

120x

11202011

DebreBirhanwindPark

63x

1.59100.172011

Messobo/HarenaWindPark

34x

1.5512012

AyishawindPark

200x

1.53002012

AselawindPark

64x

1.5699.842014

AdamaIIwindPark

34x

1.55120151.4CO-generation

Fincha1x

20202011

Wonji1x

20202012

Tendaho1x

202020131.5Total

4,195

HydroPowerProjectsunderstudy

No.

Project

StatusCAPMW

EnergyGWH

EstimatedCompletionyearoftheStudyCommissioningyear1TEKEZEIIU.FeasibilityStudy45017302012Accordingtotheirfeasibilityresulttheseprojectswillbecommissionedupto20202BEKOABOU.FeasibilityStudy1600860020123BORDERU.FeasibilityStudy1200600020124MENDEYAU.FeasibilityStudy20001210020125GIBE5THU.FeasibilityStudy660193720126WABISHEBELEUnderstudty8746020127BIRBIRPreliminarystudy467272620128LOWERDEDESSAPreliminarystudy613320820129DABUSPreliminarystudy4252036201210TAMSPreliminarystudy10005892201211GENALEDAWA5thPreliminarystudy1006552012

G.Total

860245344

July24April201020SupplyandDemandBalance

ThesupplydemandsituationfortheremainingplanningperiodisalsoindicatedinTableII.

21MidTerm(To2012)MidTerm(To2013)MidTerm(To2014)MidTerm(To2015)Energy(GW.h)Power(Mw)Energy(GW.h)Power(Mw)Energy(GW.h)Power(Mw)Energy(GW.h)Power(Mw)ForecastDemandTargetscenarioModerateIscenarioModerateIIScenario7902686174301583137414881043084399511208916901905137681038012174275720792438181741276715582364025573121Supply7210182282071815118102656176113939DeficitTargetscenarioModerateIscenarioModerateIIscenario

691Nil443NilNilNil22232321527274Nil901958Nil885101NilNil563NilNilNilNilNilProjectedSupplyandDemandBalance-OwnDemand(Table-II)22SupplyandDemandBalance

IfthedemandistogrowasperthegrowthpatternofModerateIscenario(24%annualgrowth),therewillbeenergysupplyshortfallofmagnitude232GWhonyear2013.Otherwisethesystemcandeliveralltheenergyandpeakdemandrequirementwithoutanyproblemthroughouttheplanninghorizon.ForthecaseofdemandgrowthaspertheModerateIIscenario(28%annualgrowth),a90MWcapacitydeficitoccursonlyonyear2013.Energydeficitsofmagnitude443,1527and885GWhwilloccuronyears2012,2013and2014respectively.Forthecasethatthedemandgrowsaccordingtothehighestgrowthscenario,significantdeficitbothinenergyandcapacitywilloccur.Energydeficitsofmagnitude691,2223,1958and563GWhwilloccuronyears2012,2013,2014and2015respectively.Capacityshortfallsofmagnitude274and101MWwilloccuronyears2013and2014respectively.

23SupplyandDemandBalance

Intheshortperioduptoyear2014thehydroplantscannotbecommissionedduetothelongerleadtimerequiredtoimplementtheseprojects.Shorterleadtimewindplantsareplannedtobecommissionedwithinthisperiod.Butstilltherewillbehighdeficitsinthisperiod.Additionaldemandsidemeasureslikepromotionanddisseminationofenergyefficientlampsandenergyefficientinjeracookers,powerfactorimprovementandimplementationoftimeofdaytariffareplanedtobeconsidered.Theanalysisalsoshowedthatforthecaseoftheanticipatedsmallestgrowth(24%demandscenario)therewillbesignificantfirmenergysurplusonyears2014and2015.Thisindicatesthatplannedfirmpowerexchangescanalsobemadewithinthisperiod.InadditiontherearehydroprojectslikePlantXandGebaIIplannedtobecommissionedattheendoftheplanningperiodbutarenotconsideredinthesupplydemandanalysis.Theseplantsalonecanbringaround5200MW/15308GWhtothesystemandtherewillbesignificantfirmpowerandenergytobeexportedthroughtheinterconnectors.

24SupplyandDemandBalance

Thereareotherattractiveprojectswhichcandeliveradditionalcapacitytothesysteminordertomeetboththeinternalandexportdemandsbeyondthecurrentplanningperiodunderinvestigation(2011-2015).

No.

Project

StatusCAP(MW

)

Energy(GWH)

1TEKEZEIIU.FeasibilityStudy45017302BEKOABOU.FeasibilityStudy160086003BORDERU.FeasibilityStudy120060004MENDEYAU.FeasibilityStudy2000121005GIBE4TH

U.FeasibilityStudy147296366GIBE5TH

U.FeasibilityStudy66019377WABISHEBELEUnderstudty874608BIRBIRPreliminarystudy46727269LOWERDEDESSAPreliminarystudy613320810DABUSPreliminarystudy425203611TAMSPreliminarystudy1000589212GENALEDAWA5th

Preliminarystudy100655HydroPowerProjectsunderstudy

No.

Project

StatusCAPMW

EnergyGWH

EstimatedCompletionyearoftheStudyCommissioningyear1TEKEZEIIU.FeasibilityStudy45017302012Accordingtotheirfeasibilityresulttheseprojectswillbecommissionedupto20202BEKOABOU.FeasibilityStudy1600860020123BORDERU.FeasibilityStudy1200600020124MENDEYAU.FeasibilityStudy20001210020125GIBE5THU.FeasibilityStudy660193720126WABISHEBELEUnderstudty8746020127BIRBIRPreliminarystudy467272620128LOWERDEDESSAPreliminarystudy613320820129DABUSPreliminarystudy4252036201210TAMSPreliminarystudy10005892201211GENALEDAWA5thPreliminarystudy1006552012July24April2010GenerationProjectscomingintothesystemforthepastyearTEKEZEGilgelGibeIIHydroElectricGILGELGIBEII28TransmissionSystemRequirements29transmissionexpansionrequirementInordertoreliablydelivertheadditionalgenerationcomingfromthenewplantsindicatedintherecommendedgenerationexpansionplanandalsoexpandthetransmissionsystemtonewloadcenters,theexistingtransmissionsystemhastobeaccordinglyexpandedandreinforced.Forthisnetworksimulationsareusuallymadeatyearsofsignificantadditioneithertothegenerationsystemorloadtoidentifysystemweekpointswhichfailtosatisfydefinedtransmissionplanningcriterions.Thesetransmissionplanningcriterionsareusefultocheckthereliabilityandadequacyofthetransmissionsystematagivenperiodoftime.

30Transmissionexpansionrequirement…..Accordingtosystemstudiesperformedinthisregard:Additional1473kmtransmissionlinesarerequired.Ofthese39%are400kV,43%are230kVandtheremaining18%are132kV.15newsubstations,havingatotalof1850MVAhighestvoltageMVAratingarerequired.20existingsubstation’stransformersareeitherupgradedtoahighervoltageandMVAratingornewtransformersareinstalled.Thetotaltransformercapacityinstalledattheexistingsubstationswillreach1000MVA.About670MVArnewshuntcapacitorsatvoltagelevelsof400.230and132kVarerequiredinordertokeepthepeakhourvoltagewithintheallowablelimit.31About152Mvarshuntreactorsatthe230and132kVvoltagelevelsarerequiredinordertocontrolovervoltageduringsystemminimumloadingconditions.ThefollowingslideswillpresentthemajortransmissionsystemexpansionrequirementsTransmissionexpansionrequirement…..32No.VoltageLevelTransmissionLineTypeLength(km)ExpectedYearof(kV)From-ToOperation1400Akaki-II–Debreziet-IIISingle4020132230Debreziet-III–BDFC(Factory)Double1220133230Debreziet-III–Ayas(Factory)Single520134132Debreziet-III–ModjoSingle1220135132Debreziet-III–DukemSingle8.420136132Combolcha–DessieSingle12720137400Sululta–SebetaSingle5020138230Sululta–CotobieII(Legatafo),Single402013TransmissionLineAdditions

33No.VoltageLevelTransmissionLineTypeLength(km)ExpectedYearof9400BelesSulultaLILOturning-GebreGuracha,Doublecircuitnew400kVTransmissionLineDouble3201310230Sululta-ChanchSinglebreGuracha–FitcheSingle46201312230Fitche-DebreTsigeSingle19201313230GhedoGefersa230kVLILO–AddisAlemDouble3201314230AddisAlem–MugerIISingle40201315132AddisWest–BlackLionSingle5201316132SabataI–AddisCenterSingle11201317132AddisAlem–GinchiSingle352013TransmissionLineAdditions….

34No.VoltageLevelTransmissionLineTypeLength(km)ExpectedYearof18132CotobieI-AddisEastSingle6201319230Akaki-SabataIIDouble33.12201420230WolaytaSodo-YirgalemDouble101201421230Yirgalem-AwasaDouble35201422230Alaba-ShashemeneSingle63201423230Awasa-ShashemaneDouble21.6201424132DriedawaII–DiredawaIIISingle12.5201525230DireDawaII–HararIIISingle43.8201326132Gefersa–AddisNorthUndergroundcable11.11201427230SabataII–AkakiIISingle33.12201428400DebreMarkos-SulultaSingle215.6201529400WolaytaSodo-Akaki-IISingle267.061201526230GenaleDawaIII–Ramo(Raitu)Double1902015TransmissionLineAdditions….

35NoSubstationNameVoltage

ExpectedYearofOperationTypeHigestkVMVA

1Modjo-II132/15New1x2520132D.ZeitIII400/230/132/15New2X25020133BDFC230/15New2x12520134AYASINDUSTRY132/15New1x2520135Dukem-II132/15New1x2520136GebreGuracha400/230/132/33New2x12520137DebreTsige132/33New1x2520138Chancho230/132/15New2x6320139AddisAlem230/132/15New2x63201310Ginchi132/15New1x25201311MugerII230/15New2x63201312BlackLion132/15New2x50201313AddisCenter132/15New2x50201314GigelGibeOld230/132/15New1x30201315FitcheII230/66/15New2x402013Newsubstations36NoSubstationNameNewProposedTransformer

ExpectedYearofOperationTypeHigestkVMVA1Dangla66/15Additional2x12520132Harar3132/66/15Additional2x6320133Wolliso230/15Additionalzx1220134AddisEast-I132/15Upgraded1x2520135Dilla132/33/15Additional2x3020136MelkaWakenaYougoslavSubstation132/66/15Additional1x6320137DebreBirhan132/15Additional1x2520138Arbaminch132/16Additional1x2510139BaleRobe66/15Additional1x12201310Alamata230/132/33Additional2x50201311Awassa132/33Additional2x50201412Awassa230/132Upgraded1x125201413YirgaAlem230/132Upgraded1x125201414SHashemane230/13