IIF全球债务监测（2024年5月）

INSTITUTEOF

INTERNATIONALFINANCE

(

IIFGlobalDebtMonitor

NavigatingtheNewNormal

May7,2024

EmreTiftik,Director,SustainabilityResearch,GlobalPolicyInitiativesKhadijaMahmood,Economist,GlobalPolicyInitiatives

RaymondAycock,SeniorResearchAnalyst,GlobalPolicyInitiatives

Editor:SonjaGibbs,ManagingDirector,andHeadofSustainableFinance,GlobalPolicyInitiatives

•Globaldebtrosebysome$1.3trilliontoanewrecordhighof$315trillioninQ12024.

•Moreover,afterthreeconsecutivequartersofdecline,theglobaldebt-to-GDPresumeditsupwardtrajectoryinQ12024.

•Emergingmarketdebttopped$105trillioninQ12024,withthelargestincreasescomingfromChina,India,andMexico.

•Acrossmaturemarkets,debtrosemostquicklyintheU.S.andJapan;thatsaid,aweakeryenshouldsupportdebtdynamicsfortheJapanesegovernmentandcorporates.

•Given“sticky”U.S.inflationandanexpecteddelaytoFedratecuts,aUSDrally—withtheECBbeginningtoease—couldonceagainbringgovernmentdebtstrainstothefore,particularlyfordevelopingcountries.

•Ofnote:risingtradefrictionsanddeepergeoeconomicfragmentationcoulddiminishtheexternaldebtservicingcapacityofemergingmarkets.

GLOBALDEBTHIT$315TRILLIONINQ12024

Globaldebtincreasedby$1.3trillioninthefirstquarterof2024,reachinganewrecordhighofover$315trillion—333%ofGDP.Thisincreasemarksthesecondconsecutivequarterlyriseandwasprimarilydrivenbyemergingmar-kets,wheredebtsurgedtoanunprecedentedhighofover$105trillion—$55trillionmorethanadecadeago.ThebulkoftheEMdebtbuildupcamefromChina,India,andMexicoinQ12024.Conversely,Korea,Thailand,andBrazilsawthemostsignificantdeclinesintheUSDvalueoftheirtotaldebt.

Totaldebtlevelsinmaturemarketsremainedbroadlysta-bleinQ1,asareductionindebtbyhouseholdsandnon-fi-nancialcorporationsoffsetthecontinuedriseingovern-mentandfinancialsectorindebtedness.Theoverallin-creasewasprimarilyconcentratedintheU.S.andJapan,followedbyIrelandandCanadawhilethemostsignificantdeclineswereobservedinSwitzerlandandGermany.

A“multi-facetednewnormal”:Althoughtherelatively

sanguine

near-termglobaleconomicoutlookisapositive

factorfordebtdynamics,stubborninflation,particularlyintheU.S.,continuestoposeasignificantrisk,puttingup-wardpressureonglobalfundingcosts.Whilethehealthofhouseholdbalancesheetsshouldprovideacushionagainst“higherforlongerrates”inthenearterm(Chart2),govern-mentbudgetdeficitsarestillhigherthanpre-pandemiclev-elsandareprojectedtocontributearound$5.3trilliontoglobaldebtaccumulationthisyear.

Chart1:Totalglobaldebtstockatrecord$315trillion

$trillion%ofGDP,weightedavg.

320

300

280

260

240

220

200

Globaldebt(inUSD)

%ofGDP(rhs)

370

360

350

340

330

320

310

201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source:IIFGlobalDebtMonitor

Table1:SectoralIndebtedness*

$trillion

Households

Non-financialcorporates

GovernmentFinancialsectorTotal

Q12024Q12023Q12024Q12023Q12024Q12023Q12024Q12023Q12024Q12023

CopyrightInstituteInternational

Maturemarkets39.939.650.2

50.1

63.0

60.356.5

55.9209.7205.9

Emergingmarkets19.218.644.042.528.426.213.913.8105.4101.1

Global59.158.294.192.691.486.470.469.8315.1307.0

Source:IIF,BIS,IMF,Haver,NationalSources.*Householddebtincorporatesoutstandingbankloans.Financialsectordebtandnon-financialcorporatedebtincorporatecross-borderanddomesticbankloansaswellasonshore/offshoreoutstandingbonds.GovernmentdebtisextrapolatedfromtheIMF-WEOdatabase.Fordetails,seethe“GeneralInformation”sectionofourdatabase.

©Copyright2024.TheInstituteofInternationalFinance,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Page2

Risingtradefrictionandgeopoliticaltensionsalsopre-

sentsignificantpotentialheadwindsfordebtmarkets.As

China

aimstobecometheworld’sleadingsupplierofnewcleanenergytechnologies,tightersupplychaincon-

straints,fueledby

industry-specificprotectionistpoli-

cies,

couldkeepbothinflationandinterestratesabovepandemiclevels.Suchascenariowouldunderminetrade

andinvestmentflowsandfurtherreducetheexternaldebtservicingcapacityofemergingand

frontier

markets.WithgrowingsignsofdecouplingacrossbothsidesoftheAtlanticonseveralfronts,includinggrowth,inflation,productivity,andgovernmentdebt,manyquestionwhetheritistimeforadditionalpolicystimulusinEu-ropetoboosteconomicactivity(Chart3).However,anabruptpolicyshiftinthisdirectioncouldtriggeraUSDrally,drivefurther

capitalflighttoU.S.assets,

andexertadditionalpressureonthebalancesheetsofnon-USbor-rowerswithsignificantUSDdebt.

AweakeryenandJapan’sdebtdynamics:Japanstandsoutasoneoftheworld’smostheavilyindebtedcountries,withtotaldebthoveringover600%ofGDP—astaggeringincreaseofover60%ptsvs.pre-COVID-19levels.ThissurgeinJapanesedebtwasthelargestacrossmajormaturemarketsduringthisperiod.ThegeneralgovernmentaccountsforthelargestportionofJapan’sindebtedness.However,sincetheonsetofthepandemic,debtbuilduphasbeenmorepronouncedinthefinancialsector(Chart4).Theriseingovernmentdebtwasrela-tivelymodest,ataround4%pts,comparedtoa17%ptin-creaseintheU.S.governmentdebtand25%ptsurgeinChina’sgovernmentdebt.

GiventhatJapan’sfinancialinstitutionsandthegeneralgovernmentholdsubstantialamountsofforeignassets,thesharpdepreciationoftheJapaneseyenagainstthecurrenciesofitsmajortradingpartnersshouldsupportJapan’ssovereignandcorporatedebtdynamics.Notably,Japan’ssignificantholdingsofinterest-bearinggovern-mentassetsheldabroad,coupledwithrelativelylowbor-rowingcosts,haveplayedacrucialroleinkeepinggov-ernmentnetinterestexpenserelativelylowinrecentyears(Chart5).However,aweakeryencouldplaceaddi-tionalpressureonhouseholdbalancesheetsbydiminish-ingtheirpurchasingpowerandcouldadverselyimpacthouseholddebtdynamicsoverthemediumterm.

Chart2:UShouseholds’assetaccumulationhasbroadlyoutpaceddebtaccumulationsincetheonsetofthepan-demic,leavinghouseholdbalancesheetsbetteroff

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

percentchangesinceend-2019

Networth

Liabilities

0-20%20-40%40-60%60-80%80-99%99-100%

Source:FED,IIF

Chart3:TheriseingovernmentdebtratiosacrossEuro-peancountieshasbeenrelativelylimitedinrecentquar-ters

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

percentagepointchg.ingovernmentdebt-to-GDPsinceQ12023

Argentina

Norway

China

Canada

U.S.

Malaysia

Egypt

SouthAfrica

Brazil

Switzerland

SaudiArabia

France

India

Mexico

Korea

Germany

UK

Chile

Türkiye

Italy

Japan

Greece

Portugal

Source:IIFGlobalDebtMonitor

Chart4:Japan’spost-pandemicdebtbuilduphasbeenprimarilyinthefinancialsector

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

%ofGDP

General

government

sectorNon-fin

一Financial/

corporates

Household

200020032006200920122015201820212024

Source:IIFGlobalDebtMonitor

©Copyright2024.TheInstituteofInternationalFinance,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Page3

Chart5:Maturemarkets–Governmentinterestexpense

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

U.S.

Italy

Greece

UK

Spain

Portugal

Spain

Portugal

France

Germany

Canada

Japan

Switzerland

Denmark

Norway

%ofgovernmentrevenue,netinterestexpense

2024/26avg.

2021/23avg.

Source:IMF,IIF

Chart7:StrengthoftheUSDcouldposesignificantex-

ternalfundingpressuresoncountrieswithlargeandde-terioratingcurrentaccountdeficits

12

9

6

3

0

-3

-6

%ofGDP,currentaccountbalance2024/26avg.

AR-.PO

TH

Weakercurrent

accountbalances

VN

CN

IRMY

AE

RU

PH

TRBDIN

EG

BR.

MX

ZA

NG

ID

SA%ofGDP,

currentaccountbalance,2021/23avg.

-6-3036912

Source:IMF,IIF

Chart9:Syndicated-loanactivityhasbottomedout

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

index,end-2014=100,debtissuance,12mva,adjustedforinflation

Globalsyndicatedloanissuance

Globalbondissuance

20152017201920212023

Source:Bloomberg,Haver,IIF

Chart6:Emergingmarkets–Governmentinterestex-pense

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Egypt

Pakistan

Malawi

Zambia

Ghana

CostaRica

Nigeria

India

Bahrain

Angola

Kenya

Bangladesh

DominicRep.

SouthAfrica

SierraLeone

%ofgovernmentrevenue,netinterestexpense

2024/26avg.

2021/23avg.

Source:IMF,IIF

Chart8:SlowbutsteadydeteriorationinChinesecorpo-rates’balancesheets

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

netdebttoEBITDA,6monthsmovingaverage

China

U.S.

Japan

201320152017201920212023

Source:Bloomberg,IIF

Chart10:Growthinbanklendinginmaturemarketsre-mainsmuted

%yoy,banklendingtotheprivatesector,3mma,samplemedian

14

12

10

8

6

4

Emergingmarkets

Maturemarkets(rhs)

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

20152017201920212023

Source:Haver,IIF

©Copyright2024.TheInstituteofInternationalFinance,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Page4

Chart11:Long-termbondandloanissuanceactivityre-mainsabovepre-pandemiclevels

25

20

15

10

5

0

$trillion,long-termgeneralgovt.&corp.bond&loan

Maturemarkets

Emergingmarkets

Offshorecenters

Estimatefor

remainderof2024

2000200420082012201620202024

Source:Bloomberg,IIF

Chart13:Maturemarketsfacesome$20trillionofbondandloanredemptionuntilyear-end

20

15

10

5

0

$trillion,includesprincipalrepaymentsonST/LTdebt

RedeemedEurosBritishPound

debtU.S.dollarsOthercurrencies

20222024202620282030

Source:Bloomberg,IIF

Chart15:Early2024witnessedasharpreboundinESGdebtissuance…

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

$billion

ESG-labelledbonds

ESG-labelledloans

4Qavg.ofESGdebt

Q12018Q12019Q12020Q12021Q12022Q12023Q12024

Source:Bloomberg,IIF

Chart12:ThemomentuminEurobondissuancebylow-incomecountriesearlierthisyearhasbeenrelatively

short-lived

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

$billion,cumulativesovereignEurobondissuanceininternationalmarkets,>1year,CF-eligiblecountries

2021

20242022

2023

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Source:Bloomberg,IIF

Chart14:EMsfacesome$6trillionofbondandloanre-demptionuntilyear-end

8.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0

$trillion,includesprincipalrepaymentsonST/LTbonds/loans

Localcurrency

Foreigncurrency

RedeemeddebtinLC

RedeemeddebtinFC

202020222024202620282030

Source:Bloomberg,IIF

Chart16:...largelydrivengreenbonds

Greenbonds SustainabilitybondsSustainability-linkedloans

Socialbonds GreenloansSustainability-linkedbondsGreenABS

Greenmunicipalbonds

$billion

Q12024

Q42023

Q12023

050100150

Source:Bloomberg,BloombergNEF,IIF

©Copyright2024.TheInstituteofInternationalFinance,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Page5

Table2:TotalGlobalDebtbySector

%ofGDPHouseholds

Non-financialcorporates

GovernmentFinancialSector

Q12024

Q12023

Q12024

Q12023

Q12024

Q12023

Q12024

Q12023

Global

61.1

62.3

95.0

96.2

98.1

95.9

78.4

79.6

Maturemarkets69.4

71.7

88.6

91.8

115.0

114.1

104.6

106.3

U.S.

71.8

74.6

76.6

80.1

120.0

116.0

71.1

76.1

EuroArea53.2

55.7

93.6

98.1

93.2

93.5

109.2

108.9

Japan

63.0

64.6

114.8

116.4

231.0

239.8

197.9

193.4

UK

78.1

81.6

63.1

67.0

85.6

87.2

157.7

159.2

Emergingmarkets47.2

46.6

105.6

103.7

69.8

65.6

34.7

35.0

EMAsia59.7

58.8

137.0

134.0

78.9

74.0

42.4

43.0

China

63.7

62.3

170.6

165.8

85.5

78.4

44.9

45.9

HongKong92.5

96.3

261.0

282.1

81.3

78.9

129.7

153.6

India38.1

36.9

56.2

54.3

83.9

82.9

3.1

2.8

Indonesia

16.3

16.0

23.5

22.7

38.8

38.9

7.1

6.4

Malaysia69.1

66.5

89.4

87.2

64.4

61.8

30.2

23.5

Pakistan2.1

2.3

10.2

11.2

75.5

76.5

1.0

1.4

Philippines

12.3

13.4

27.2

29.3

56.6

56.9

7.1

9.1

S.Korea98.9

101.5

123.0

123.0

47.1

47.2

87.0

87.3

Singapore46.1

45.3

127.2

119.4

172.0

158.1

160.7

146.7

Thailand

91.8

91.6

86.3

86.0

55.2

53.8

35.2

31.2

Vietnam26.7

26.8

105.3

103.6

34.0

34.5

4.2

4.5

EMEurope

20.2

20.0

61.2

61.8

32.1

31.8

15.8

15.5

CzechRepublic31.8

32.1

48.5

48.6

40.7

41.0

33.9

33.8

Hungary16.6

18.1

73.1

80.6

66.7

64.8

12.9

11.8

Poland23.4

25.2

36.6

39.7

47.5

44.7

25.7

24.8

Russia

22.2

20.8

77.8

74.7

21.1

21.3

9.9

8.5

Türkiye11.4

11.8

47.4

52.1

34.2

34.6

16.1

18.3

EMLatam24.1

24.8

39.4

39.5

68.7

63.2

24.8

25.5

Argentina3.3

4.0

16.8

18.1

117.7

78.9

14.5

9.8

Brazil

33.2

34.1

51.6

50.7

83.8

81.6

39.1

42.6

Chile45.7

46.2

94.0

90.8

40.5

34.6

55.7

46.3

Colombia25.9

27.8

30.3

31.5

61.3

62.9

3.7

4.8

Mexico15.8

16.0

20.2

21.4

39.6

40.1

8.8

9.7

Peru13.8

13.8

43.1

43.9

32.3

33.4

7.9

8.2

AFME26.3

23.9

37.1

37.0

50.1

47.6

17.3

15.3

Egypt

7.6

8.5

19.1

21.6

81.4

80.5

6.1

5.4

Ghana2.7

2.6

11.2

14.4

86.3

89.2

0.8

4.2

Israel41.6

43.3

68.1

69.4

61.1

59.4

10.9

11.0

Kenya10.3

11.2

20.7

19.9

74.6

69.5

1.6

2.1

Nigeria19.7

7.8

6.2

10.7

46.4

41.7

12.1

6.2

SaudiArabia31.6

29.6

42.9

37.3

27.4

24.0

5.6

4.5

SouthAfrica

34.4

34.4

31.5

33.3

75.2

72.0

35.3

32.2

UAE22.7

Sources:IIF,BIS,Haver,NationalSources.

20.4

56.9

56.8

30.5

30.6

47.5

45.2

©Copyright2024.TheInstituteofInternationalFinance,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Page6

Table3:CurrencyBreakdownofEMSectoralDebt

%ofGDPNon-financialcorporatesGovernmentFinancialSectorHouseholds

AsofQ1-2024

LCFC

o/wUSD

o/wEURO

LCFC

o/wUSD

o/wEURO

LCFC

o/wUSD

o/wEURO

LCFC

Emergingmarkets

EMAsia

China166.44.23.40.584.61.00.70.342.12.82.00.263.70.0

HongKong

53.1

207.9

160.4

25.4

8.4

72.8

4.5

1.7

42.5

87.2

66.1

7.7

89.7

2.7

India49.27.05.91.081.62.32.30.00.92.21.80.238.10.0

Indonesia

15.7

7.7

7.2

0.4

8.1

30.6

6.5

1.3

2.7

4.4

4.0

0.1

16.0

0.3

Malaysia71.418.015.10.162.02.52.00.016.313.911.00.768.80.3

S.Korea

101.9

21.0

16.8

3.5

1.1

46.0

0.5

0.5

18.8

68.3

14.6

2.3

98.1

0.8

Singapore67.260.054.32.6172.00.00.00.048.7112.069.413.739.46.7

Thailand

73.9

12.4

11.3

0.4

0.4

54.8

0.4

0.0

7.8

27.4

6.8

0.3

91.6

0.2

EMEurope

CzechRepublic

19.7

28.8

0.8

27.5

0.6

40.1

0.0

0.6

5.7

28.1

0.3

5.4

31.6

0.1

Hungary37.735.411.024.447.519.38.010.75.47.52.05.416.50.1

Poland

23.7

12.9

0.7

12