摩根士丹利：中国思考如何提振经济

August30,202410:46AM暑休之后，如何提振经济方专项债来刺激消费并回购地产库存。然而，通缩负反馈循政府或将加大房地产收储力度，以应对经济下行压力。然而这些增量举措仍然是反应式的，难以缓解通缩压力。预计GDP环比增速仅仅在低位企稳，难以出现明显的复苏。政府可能加大对房地产收储的资金支持，但资金规模或许有限：彭博社报道称，决策层正考虑允许地方政府发行专项债来购买未出售住房，以此来进一步推动目前停滞不前的房地产收储计划。该计划于五月中旬推出，旨在缓解房地产库存压力，资金来源为央行推出的3,000亿人民币保障性住房再贷款。然而，使用该工具需要每年为其支付利息，同时贷款本金最晚也需在五年后偿还。这在一定程度上抑制了地方政府动用该工具的积极性，尤其是一些债务压力较大的地区。迄今为止，3,000亿人民币的再贷款资金仅仅发放了120亿人民币，进度较为缓慢。相比之下，地方专项债本质上背后有中央政府的支持。尽管地方政府需要每年为此支付利息，但到期本金可以被续作。如果从整体上而不是单独地去考虑地方专项债的回报，那么地方政府将更加有动力去推动房地产去库存。然而，有效房源的不足将影响政策效果。房地产过剩问题在低线城市中最为严峻。但随着其人口总量不断地萎缩，这些城市里的已建未售住房很有可能最终成为“不良资产”,因此难以成为理想的收购对象。相比之下，一二线城市住房需求相对旺盛，但这些城市里的住房库存更多的是在建住房而非已建住房。另外，目前各地对收储房源的大致要求是周边交通便利、配套设施完善，同时优先选取整栋或整单元未售、可实现封闭管理的项目。这就进一步限制了有效房源的规模。考虑到上述因素，再加上政府此次为房地产收储分配的专项债额度或许不多，上述政策对房地产市场的提振效果料将有限。为了提升政策的有效性，决策层可以考虑以下对策：第一，放松对房源规模及地段的限制。第二，建立一种新的机制，既能克服道德风险，又能使得在建住房也能成为有效房源。另外，决策层也可以考虑分配充足的资金，以避免地方政府在收储过程中因过度压降房价而打击房企参与的积极性，扰乱市场信号。(接下页)ThistranslatedreportismadeavailableforconvenienceonlytheoriginalresearchreportpublishedinEnglish.Intheeventofaresearchreportwillprevail.Musings:SummerLull?(22Aug2024).本翻译报告仅供参考之便，摘自以英文发表的原版研究报告。如果翻译与原版研究报告有任何不一致之处，以原版研究报告中的内容为准。原版研究报告可在此处查看：ChinaMusings:SummerLull?(22Aug2024)。邢自强张永添蔡志鹏赵皇冠Exhibit1:保障性住房再贷款额度发放缓慢2中国思考中国思考查看同系列内容>中文版研究报告MorganStanleycompaniescoveredinMorganinvestorsshouldbeinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivitResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganForanalystcertifirefertotheDisclosureSectiwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedcommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicapandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanal2总的来说，三中全会之后的政策刺激仍然是反应式的，难以使得通缩压力得到有效的缓解，最终可能导致工资-物价的负反馈螺旋。从住户调查的数据来看，名义工资同比增速已经在今年二季度跌到了4%。相比之下，2020-22年的平均水平为6%,而疫情前为8%以上。另外，消费者对就业的信心也达到了历史新低，尤甚于2022年二季度上海长时间封控时的水平。然而，决策层重供给的政策思路难以改变，政策刺激也旨在为经济托的政策刺激包括推出升级版的消费品以旧换新项目，比如为消费者提供更多的折扣，纳入更多的消费品类等。Exhibit2:消费者信心创历史新低并迅速恶化消费者信心指数：就业状况2017201820192020202120Staleysa(Sngapore)Pte.(Regstatonnumber199206298Z)and/orMorganStanleyAsaGSngapore)SecuitsPtelLtd(Regstationnumber20000843AuthorityofSingapore(whichacceptslegalresposbiltyforitscontentsandshouldbecontatedwthrespettoanymattesarsngfroand/orMorgnStanleyTawanLimitedandorMorganStanley&Cohternationalple,SeoulBranch,andlorMorganStanleyAustralalimited(ABN67003734576,holderofAustalanfsevieslenseNo.233742,whichacceptsresponsbityforitscotents)and/orMorganStanleyWeathManagementAustalaPtyltd(ABN.1900914555,olderU02290MH1998PTC15305,regulatedbytheSecuritesandEchangBoardoflnda(“SEe”)andholderoflcenBrcker(SEEIStockBrokerRegstationNo.IN200024438),MerchantBanker(SEBIRegstationNo.IM0000m203),anddepstoy(SEEIRegstrationNa.INDPNSDL5672020havingregsteredoftceat18thHoorTower2,OMmbai400013,IndiaTelephoneno+91226181000ComplanceOffcerDetalsMtTershiHardas,TeLNo:+91226181oficerdetals:MrTeirshiHards,TeLNo:+91226181000oEmalmscomplance@morganstanleycomwhichaceptstheresponsbrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,MorganStFormpotandsclosures,stockpricechatsandequtyratinghstoresregardingcompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisreportpleaseatwwwmorganstanleycomlesearchdiscdosures,orcontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorgnStanleyResearchat1585Broadwa,(Atteton:ResearchManagement,Forvaluationmethodolgyandrsksassclatedwthanyrecommendaton,atngorprtcetargetrerencedinthsresearchrepot,leasecotattheClentSupportTeamasfolow+1800303-2495;HongKong+852284859;LatinAnerica+1718754544(US);London+4(02074258169;Sngpore+6568346(0)3-68369000.AlternatelyoumaycontactyourinvestmetrepresentatveorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Brcadway,(ttentionReseThefolowinganadystsherebycetfythatthervewsabouthecompanlesandthersecurtesdscusedinthsrepotareacuratelyepresedreceivedirectorndirectcompensatMorganStanleyReseachhasbenpublsedinaccordancewthourcorflctmanagemetpolcy,whichisavaPortugueseversionofthepolicycanbefoundatwwwmorTheequtyreserchanadystsorstategstsprncipllyresponslbleforthereparationofMorganStanleyResearchhaverecevedcompersatofesearch,investordlentfedback,tockpckingcompetvefatos,fimrevenuesandoverllivestmentbankngrevernues.EqutylinkedtoinvestmentbankingorcapiMorganStanleyandtsaflatesdobusinessthatrelatestocomparieshcommercalbanking,extensonofcedt,investmentserncesandinvestmentbankingMorgantanleyselltoandbuysfomcustomestMorganStanleyResearchonaprincplbasisMorganStanleymayhaveapostioninthedebtoftheCompanyoriasprincipalinthedebtsecuritMorganStanleyusesareltvertngsystemusingtermschasOverweght,EqualweightNotPatedorUnderweightsedefntoratingsusedinMorganStanleyResearchlnadton,sinceMorganStanleyResearchcontansmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalstsviews,nvesStaleyResearch,inisentiretwandnotinferthecontentsfrontheratingalonelhanycase,ratings(oreseach)shouldnotbeusedorreleduponasivestobuyorsellastockshoulddependhold,andselbutrepresentrecommendedrelatveweigtings(seedefitonsbelow).Tosatsfyregulatoryregurements,webuyrecommendation;wecorreMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH4Overweight(O).Thestockstotalretrnisepectedtoexcedtheaveragetotalreturmoftheanalystsindusty(orindustryteamis)covergeunvese,onariskadustedbsEqualweight(E.ThestockstotalreturnisexpectedtobeinlnewiththeaveragetotaNotRated(NR).Curentytheanalystdoesnothaveadequat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