世界银行 -2024年国际碳市场现状与趋势 State and Trendsof Carbon Pricing -INTERNATIONAL CARBON MARKETS 2024

2024

StateandTrends

ofCarbonPricing:

INTERNATIONALCARBONMARKETS2024

2StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing:InternationalCarbonMarkets2024

WORLDBANK.ORG

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ThisreportwasdevelopedbytheClimateFinance

andEconomicsteamattheWorldBank.TheWorld

BankteamresponsibleforthisreportwascomposedofHarikumarGadde,ShreyaRangarajan,SeoyiKim,AlejandraMazariegos,GemmaTorrasVives,Aurora

MariaSarahSilitonga,andTolulopeAbisolaOlusinaundertheguidanceofChandraShekharSinhaandHaniaDawood.

MSCI(GuyTurner,JamieLambert,Vidushi

Jayathilak,JuanaHernandez,PeterFegelmanandJelenaPeshkatari),AlliedOffsets(AntonRootandMariaBenzoni),andEcosystemMarketplace(AlexProctonandCharlotteBarber)contributedcarbonmarketdataandintelligenceforthereport.

Thisreportbenefitedgreatlyfromtheinsightsandcontributionsfromthefollowingreviewers:Klas

Wetterberg(OECD),DavidHynes(GoldStandard),

andKlausOppermann,LisaFinneran,BasakOdemis,Kyoo-WonOh,FlaviaRosembuj,SandhyaSrinivasan,JoePryor,PierreGuigonandCameronPrell(WorldBankGroup).

Thisreporthasbeendevelopedaspartofthe

TechnicalWorkProgramunderthePartnershipforMarketImplementation.

Contents

Endnotes

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3StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing:InternationalCarbonMarkets2024

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ListofFigures

ListofFigures

Figure1

-Half-yearlyissuancesandretirementsbyprojecttype

8

Figure2

-Weightedaveragepricesofremovalvsavoidancecredits

9

Figure3

-Rangeofcapacitybuildingservices

19

Figure4

-Legalprotectionsthatholdersofcarboncreditswillhave

iftheyarerecognizedorgrantedpropertyrights

21

Figure5A

-Spectrumofrisksincarbonmarkets

25

Figure5B

-Riskmappingformarketplayers

26

ListofBoxes

Box1

-Article6negotiationsontheroadtoBaku

8

Box2

-Roleofcarboncreditsinvoluntarycorporateclimateaction

15

Box3

-ConsiderationsforNationalCarbonMarketFramework

18

ListofTables

Table1

-Summaryofcompanies’emissionsperformancegap

13

Table2

-Comparisonofguidanceonusecaseofcarboncredits

14

Table3

-Keyelementsincarbonmarketpolicyframeworks

17

Table4

-Keychallengestodevelopingrobustmarketinfrastructure

andpotentialsolutionstoaddressthem

24

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4StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing:InternationalCarbonMarkets2024

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Contents

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Foreword

6

Summary

7

TableofContents

01

Furthereffortsareneeded

tofulfilltheenvironmental

integritycommitmentsmade

atCOP28

11

02

Hostcountriesarebeginning

toestablishpolicyframeworks

forArticle6carbonmarkets,

withsomealsoincorporating

voluntarycarbonmarkets

16

04

Clarityonthelegalnatureof

carboncreditsiscriticaltoboostmarketconfidenceandscale

effectively

20

05

Developingrobustand

interoperablecarbonmarketinfrastructureisessentialfor

marketintegrity

22

StateofPlay

8

03

Improvedcoordinationonglobalcapacitybuilding

effortsisneededtobettersupportcountriesto

participateincarbonmarkets

19

06

Emergingproductscouldhelp

identifyandde-riskcarbonmarkettransactionsandincentivize

investment

25

5StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing:InternationalCarbonMarkets2024

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Abbreviationsandacronyms

ACR

AmericanCarbonRegistry

ML

MoneyLaundering

ART

ArchitectureforREDD+Transactions

NDC

NationallyDeterminedContribution

A6IP

ParisAgreementArticle6ImplementationPartnership

SBTi

ScienceBasedTargetsInitiative

CAR

ClimateActionReserve

SF6

Sulfurhexafluoride

CADTrust

ClimateActionDataTrust

UNFCCC

UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange

CCP

CoreCarbonPrinciples

UNIDROIT

InternationalInstituteforUnificationofPrivateLaw

CFTC

CommodityFuturesTradingCommission

VCMI

VoluntaryCarbonMarketsIntegrityInitiative

CORSIA

CarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemeforInternationalAviation

VCS

VerifiedCarbonStandard

DAIP

DepartmentofDefenseAeronauticalInformationPortal

ETA

EnergyTransitionAccelerator

GDPR

GeneralDataProtectionRegulation

GtCO2e

Gigatonnesofcarbondioxideequivalent

ICVCM

IntegrityCouncilofVoluntaryCarbonMarkets

IOSCO

InternationalOrganizationofSecuritiesCommissions

ISO

InternationalOrganizationforStandardization

IT

Informationtechnology

KYC

KnowYourCustomer

MIGA

MultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgency

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6StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing:InternationalCarbonMarkets2024

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Foreword

Carbonmarketsareessentialforacceleratingclimateactionindeveloping

countries,whereclimatefinanceneedsfarexceedavailableresources.By

providingachanneltomobilizenecessaryfundinganddeliverreal,additional

emissionsreductionsandremovals,carbonmarketscanhelpclosesubstantialinvestmentgaps.Moreover,theysupportbroadereconomicdevelopment

throughassociatedco-benefitsandthepotentialreinvestmentofcarbon

revenues.Assuch,carbonmarketscanbeavitaltoolforachievingclimategoalsandsupportingvulnerablecommunities.

Thesemarketsareatapivotalmoment,wherethepathforwardisfilledwithbothpromiseandchallenges.Ontheonehand,effortstoenhancetrustinthesupplysideofthemarkethaveshownencouragingprogress,instillingasenseofoptimismabouttheenvironmentalintegrityofcarboncredits.However,thedemandsideofthemarketisstillworkingtowardsovercominginconsistent

guidelines,regulations,anddivergentprioritiesamongstakeholders.

Addressingtheclimatecrisiscontinuestobeacriticalpriorityforbothcountriesandcorporations.Aclear,coherentframeworkandpoliciesaroundsupplyand

demandforcarboncreditsisthereforecritical.Whileregulationsareadvancing,theyvaryinspeedandscope,oftenlackingalignment,whichcomplicatesan

alreadycomplexlandscape.Companies,increasinglyengagedinsustainability,urgentlyrequireclarityonhowcarboncreditscansupporttheirinitiatives,

includingtheregulationofenvironmentalclaimsandguidanceforcorporatenet-zerotransitions.

UpcomingrevisionstoNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)presentanopportunityforcountriestoarticulatemoreclearlytheroletheyseeforinternationalcarbonmarkets,sothatbothsovereignandprivatebuyersandsellersofcarboncreditscanunderstandhowtoleveragecarbonmarketstoadvancetheirclimategoals.

Further,therecentUnitedNationsclimatechangenegotiationsinBonn(SB60)laidthegroundworktoadvancediscussionsonArticle6atCOP29atBaku,

anditsignaledreadinessamongPartiestoengageconstructivelyonthe

outstandingissues.COP29presentsacrucialopportunitytoreachasuccessfulconclusiononoutstandingissues,whichwillbevitaltomaintainmomentum.

Acknowledgingthecrossroadsofpossibilities,thissecondeditionof“State

andTrendsofInternationalCarbonMarkets”reviewsthestatusofthecarbon

marketanddelvesintothebottleneckscurrentlyimpedinggrowth.Theurgencyofaddressingtheseissuescannotbeoverstated.Thedecisionsmadetoday

willshapethefutureofourglobalclimateeffortsandunlockthepotentialofcarbonmarketstochannelclimatefinancetodevelopingcountriesanddrivemeaningfulemissionreductions.Thetimeforincreasedactionisnow.

HaniaDawood

PracticeManager,ClimateFinanceandEconomics,WorldBank

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7StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing:InternationalCarbonMarkets2024

Summary

Deployriskmitigation

toolsandfinancial

productsstrategically

atthetransactionlevel

approvedhigh

Well-designed,highintegritycarbonmarketscanplayapivotalroleinfinancingclimate

actionindevelopingcountries.However,

corporategoals

emissions,fornet-zero

Prioritize

implementationguidancetocreaadequatesupply

ofteof

qualitycredits

Deliverconsistentguidanceonuseofcarboncredits,

includingclarityontheiruseforscope3

01

Slowprogressin

operationalizationof

end-to-endenvironmentalintegrity

06

Highinvestmentrisksacrossthevaluechain

severalcriticalbottlenecksimpedethe

growthofthesemarkets.The2024State

andTrendsofInternationalCarbon

Marketsreportevaluatestheprogressmadeinaddressingthesebottlenecks,highlightstheurgencyoftheseissues,andproposes

05

Fragmentedanddiverseapproaches todeployment ofmarketinfrastructure

02

Limited

developmentofcomprehensivedomestic

carbonmarket

legislations

Acceleratethe

development

ofpragmatic

carbonmarket

policyframeworks

Define,develop

andimplement

robustand

interoperable

infrastructure

recommendationstoensurethatcarbonmarketsreachtheirfullpotential:

04

Lackoflegalclarityaroundcarboncredits

03

Fragmented

capacitybuildingefforts

Improveinternational

coordinationandharmonize

deliveryapproachesfor

deploymentofpolicyand

regulatoryframeworks

Clarifythedefinitionoflegal

natureofcarboncreditsin

countrypolicyframeworks

andgrantpropertyrights

Challenge

topromoteharmonization

acrossjurisdictions

Recommendation

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8StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing:InternationalCarbonMarkets2024

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StateofPlay

Carbonmarkets,bothinternationalcomplianceandvoluntary

1

,areatan

inflectionpoint.MoreprogressisneededonArticle6,andexpectationsare

highforCOP29toresolveoutstandingissues(Box1).Involuntarymarkets,

lastyearsawasignificantdropinthemarketvalueoftradedcarboncredits,

fromUSD1.87billiontoUSD723million

2

,primarilyattributedtoenvironmental

integrityconcerns

3

.Severalotherchallengescontinuetoundermineconfidence.Thisisreflectedinthelowweightedaverageprices,whichhaveremainedbelowUSD6/tCO2esinceJuly2023

4

.DespiteadecreaseintheissuanceofReducing

EmissionfromDeforestationandForestDegradation(REDD+)credits,driven

byincreasedscrutinyintheREDD+space,overallissuanceandretirement

levelshaveremainedgenerallystableinthefirsthalfof2024(Figure1).Thereareongoingeffortsbyavarietyofstakeholders,suchastheIntegrityCouncilofVoluntaryCarbonMarkets(ICVCM)andtheVoluntaryCarbonMarketsIntegrityInitiative(VCMI),torestoretrustandtransparencyincarbonmarkets.The

BOX1

Article6negotiationsontheroadtoBaku

Keyoperationalissuesrelatedtotransparency,environmentalintegrityandtheavoidanceofdoublecountingarestillbeingdebatedwithoutconsensus.TheresolutionofoutstandingissuespertainingtoArticle6,especiallyArticle6.4(thesuccessoroftheCleanDevelopment

Mechanism),mustbeprioritized,asitwilldeterminetheoperationaldetailsandgovernancestructuresessentialforthepracticalimplementation

oftheArticle6.4mechanismandtheuseofunitsgeneratedunderit,

includingA6.4mitigationcontributionunitsfortheappropriateclaimsbyvoluntarymarketparticipants.

progressinresponsetotheseinitiativesisyettohavefullimpactbutshowspromise.

FIGURE1

Half-yearlyissuanceandretirementsbyprojecttype(inmtCO2e)

250

tCO2e)

Creditsissued/retired(million

200

150

100

50

H12020

H22020

H12021

H22021

H12022

H22022

H12023

H22023

H12024

0

IssuancesRetirements

●CarbonEngineering●Non-CO2Gases

●FuelSwitch

EnergyEfficiency

●Renewableenergy●REDD+

●NatureRestoration

.JurisdictionalREDD+

Source:MSCICarbonMarkets,asofJune30,2024

Note:IncludestransactionsfromCleanDevelopmentMechanism(NDCeligible),EcoRegistry,Gold

Standard,AmericanCarbonRegistry,Verra,ClimateActionReserve,ClimateForward,PuroEarth,Joint

CreditingMechanism,GlobalCarbonCouncil,BioCarbon,ArchitectureforREDD+Transactions’TheREDD+EnvironmentalExcellenceStandard

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9StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing:InternationalCarbonMarkets2024

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Anotherindicatorofprogressistheincreased

sophisticationofbuyers,theirdirectinvolvementin

projectduediligence,andtheirpreferenceforhigh-qualityinvestments.Suchbuyersarewillingtopaylargepremiums

forcreditswithperceivedhigherqualityanddevelopment

impact.Forexample,in2023,projectswithcertifiedco-

benefitstradedatanaveragepricepremiumof37%over

otherprojects5.ProjectswithLettersofAuthorizationhave

alsocommandedhigherprices

6,7

.Thehigherpricecould

beattributedtoperceivedintegrityfromalignmentwiththeParisAgreementaswellastheincreasedcostsassociated

withauthorizedclimateactions.Finally,projectsratedby

independententitiesarebeginningtocommandhigherprices(morein#6).

Thisyearalsoshowedremovalcreditstradingatapremiumcomparedwithavoidanceandreductioncredits(Figure2).

Technology-basedremovals,suchasdirectaircaptureand

storageandenhancedweatheringandbiochartradeat

significantlyhigherprices.Thisisduetotheperceptionof

higherqualityintechnology-basedremovals,providing

assuranceoffewerbaselineissuesorconcernsaboutover-

crediting.Furthermore,theinconsistentguidanceontheuseofcarboncreditsforcorporatenet-zerogoals,coupledwith

concernsaboutthequalityofreductioncredits(morein#1.2),hasledbuyerstopreferremovalcredits.Lastly,therehasbeenanoticeableincreaseindemandfrombuyersforadvanced

marketcommitmentsrelatedtocarbonremovalprojects,bothtechnology-basedandnature-based.

FIGURE2

Weightedaveragepricesofremovalvsavoidancecredits(inUSD)

Average($/tCOe)

1,200.00

1,000.00

800.00

600.00

400.00

200.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00

March2022

Dec2022

June2023

Dec2023

July2024

Techbasedremovals

Naturebasedremovals

Avoidance

Source:AlliedOffsets

Note:Tech-basedremovalsareanemergingassetclassandhencecompriseoffewertransactions

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Forinstance,inMay2024,majortechnologycompaniesincludingGoogle,

Microsoft,MetaandSalesforce,launchedtheSymbiosisCoalition

8

witha

commitmenttoinvestinnaturerestorationprojectsaimingtogenerateup

to20mtCO2eby2030.Similarly,theNextGen

9

consortiumwaslaunchedto

investinadiversifiedportfoliooftechnologicalremovalprojectswiththeaimtopurchaseatleast1mtCO2eofcarbonremovalsby2025,atanaveragepriceofUSD200/tCO2e2.Theselong-termofftakedealsdemonstrateagrowinginterestfromcorporatesinexercisinggreatercontrolovertheprojectsfromwhich

theypurchasecreditstomitigaterisksaroundquality.Theselong-termofftakeagreementsareawelcomedevelopment,astheyalsosignaltoprojectsgreatercashflowcertaintyandpotentialforcollateralizationofcarbonrevenues.

Theincreaseinmarketappetitefortechnologicalremovalmitigationactivities,whicharepredominantlyconcentratedindevelopedcountries,isindeed

encouragingandsignalsthepotentialfordemandtobeunlockedatamuchlargerscaleacrossawidersetofdecarbonizationactivitieswithdevelopmentimpact,importantlyindevelopingcountries.

Criticalbottleneckstoscalingcarbonmarketsidentifiedanddiscussedinthisreportinclude:

•slowprogressinadoptionofend-to-endenvironmentalintegritynecessaryforcompaniestodecarbonizetheiroperationsandvaluechainemissions

usinghighintegritycarboncredits,

•lackofrobustandcomprehensivedomesticcarbonmarketlegislation(thatprovidespolicycertaintyaroundgeneration,transferanduseofcarbon

credits),

•lackofcoordinationincapacitybuildingefforts,

•lackoflegalclarityaroundcarboncredits,

•fragmentedanddiverseapproachestodeploymentofmarketinfrastructure,and

•highinvestmentrisksacrossthecarbonmarketvaluechain.

Thisreportaimstoassesstheprogressmadeintacklingthesebottlenecks

andtooutlinerecommendationssothatcarbonmarketscanachievetheirfullpotential.

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11StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing:InternationalCarbonMarkets2024

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01

FurthereffortsareneededtofulfilltheenvironmentalintegritycommitmentsmadeatCOP28.

AtCOP28,sixkeyorganizations–ICVCM,VCMI,ScienceBasedTargetsInitiative(SBTi),GHGProtocol,WeMeanBusinessCoalition,andCDP–announcedtheircommitmenttocollaboratethroughan‘end-toend’integrityframeworkfor

carbonmarketstodeliverclear,cohesiveguidanceforcorporateclimateaction.Thiscollaborationwasseenasacrucialsteptogiveconsistentguidelinesandclarityontheusecaseofcarboncreditsbycorporations,andtotherefore

unlockdemand.Additionally,theannouncementfrommajorindependent

creditingstandardsthattheywillcollaboratetoputinplacecommonprinciplesforquantificationandaccountingofremovalsandemissionsreductionsand

toseekassessmentundertheICVCM’sCoreCarbonPrinciples(CCPs)createdencouragingmomentum.DespitetheoptimismcreatedduringCOP28bytheseinitiatives,progresshasbeenslowerthandesirable;onthesupplyside,marketadoptionremainsmuted,andonthedemandside,consistentandactionable

guidanceonusecaseisnotyetinplace.

1.1ICVCM’srulebooktoassessthequalityofprogramandmethodologyisinplace;however,itsimpactondemand

mobilizationisyettobeseen.

ThecarbonmarketcoalescingaroundICVCM’sCCPlabels

10

,whichare

emergingasthebenchmarkforevaluatingthesupply-sidequality,is

animportantandwelcomedevelopment.Atthetimeofthepublicationofthisreport,ICVCMhadapprovedfivemajorindependentcreditingprograms–AmericanCarbonRegistry(ACR),ArchitectureforREDD+Transactions(ART),ClimateActionReserve(CAR),GoldStandard,andVerra’sVerifiedCarbon

Standard(VCS)–alongwithmethodologiesforactivitiesinvolvinglandfillgasutilization,managementofozonedepletingsubstancesandleakdetection/repairingassystems.Fouradditionalcarboncreditingprogramsand27

categoriesofactivities’methodologiesarependingassessmentbyICVCM.

Cumulatively,asofAugust6,thesedevelopmentssuggestthat3.6%ofthe

market(27milliontCO2eofunretiredcredits)hasbeenapprovedtousetheCCPlabel

11

,whileanother50%ofthemarketisundergoingqualityassessmentunderthissingle,harmonizedbenchmark

12

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12StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing:InternationalCarbonMarkets2024

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CCP-eligiblecreditsfromlandfillgasutilizationandozonedepletingactivities

sawasignificantincreaseinretirementsthissummerpostapproval

13

,signalingthemarketreadinesstousetheCCPlabelsasamarkerofquality.Additionally,thisyearsawthefirstCCP-labeledcreditsbecomingavailablefortradingon

exchanges;XpansivlaunchedtradingofstandardizedcontractsforCCPcreditsonitsspotexchangeonJuly23withalmost40,000CO2etradedduringthefirstweek

14

.

Inotherdevelopments,ICVCMhassofarrejectedgrantingCCPlabelsfor

methodologiescoveringaroundathirdofthemarket

15

,includingsulfur-

hexafluoride(SF6)avoidance,mini-gridandoff-gridrenewableenergy

16

.ICVCMindicatedthesemethodologiescouldberesubmittedforapprovalbutwould

needtoaddressshortcomings,includingadditionality-relatedelements.The

impactofthesedevelopmentsonoverallvoluntarymarketactivityandon

marketparticipantscurrentlyholdingcreditsfromthesemethodologiesremainstobeseen.Thisdevelopment,althoughconsistentwiththepositionofsome

independentstandards

17

,underscorestheneedforamorenuancedapproachtowardsrenewableenergyprojectsindevelopingcountries,whereadditionalityiscontext-specificandtiedtocostofcapital,rateofreturns,andtechnology

barriersaswellasthestructureandgovernanceofexistingenergysystems.Italsohighlightstheneedtoconsidersectoralandjurisdictionalapproaches,whichcanreducetransactioncostsandlimitleakagerisks.

Insum,whiletheemergenceoftheICVCMassessmentprocessrepresentsanimportantsteptowardsharmonizingqualityofsupply,akeychallengethat

remainsisthetimeframeformarketadoption.Sixmonthsinandnotingthatassessmentsarenotyetfinished,itsimpacttoun