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IBMPredictiveMaintenance&Quality:ScopingModule2
CandidatesforPredictionBATechnicalSellerOnDemandLearning1SettingtheStage….PotentialusecasecoverageisbroadCan’tdoitallininitialrolloutLooktostartwithsomethingthatwillbeabigsuccessMichaelAdendorff
STSM,Architect–PMQ(SWG)
WhythisisImportanttoKnow…Speakingtoyoutoday…IdentifycandidatesforpredictionEvaluateandselectacandidateWhatyoushouldbeabletodoafterthissession…RecappingModule1:BythisstageyouhavelearnedhowtoanswerthesequestionsYoushouldalsounderstandmetrics&impactonbusinessobjectivesWhatistheoperationalprocess?Whatmeasurementsareavailable?Existingdetection-Whattriggersactions?Existingdecisionservicesandmanagementcontrols?ComingupinModule2:Exploretheuseofnewpredictiveresultstoevaluateprocess/assethealthUnderstandopportunitiestoautomatecontrolprocessesanddecisionservicesImproveeffectivenessofunivariateanalysisCandidatePredictionsUsingdetectionanddecisioningoutputsfrompreviousstageIdentifygapsincurrentprocessUsepredictiveanalyticstosettargetsforvariablesthatcurrentlyhavenotargetReplaceuni-variateorbivariateanalysiswithmultivariateanalysisReplaceadhocanalysiswithautomatedanalyticsReplaceinfrequentbatchanalyticswithrealtimedecisioningEliminatebottlenecksonscarceresourcesBeonthelookoutforsacredcowsandblindspotsStarttonarrowdowntothingswithbigimpact-businessobjectiveBrainstormwithcustomertoidentifyotheropportunitiesPredictiveMaintenanceConsiderationsConsiderationsforfailurepredictionWhatistheeofprediction/decisioningScheduleurgentrepairAdjustpreventativemaintenancescheduleAdjustpreventativemaintenancetasksRepairvsReplaceanalysisPlanforrepairs–parts,outagesPrioritizeengineeringchangesTohelpnarrowdowninitialimplementationconsiderSpecificequipmentSpecificfailuremodesSpecificmeasurementdataProductionQualityConsiderationsAdaptiveinspectionpoliciesandinspectionsamplesizesBatchesthathavebeenexposedtohighprocessvariabilityinanyprecedingoperationrequiremorerigorousqualityinspectionAutomatedinspectionPredictivemodelsinterpretinspectionresultsBuildgoodqualityinratherthaninspectbadqualityoutPredictivemodelsusedtoassessifcurrentconditionsareconducivegoodqualityTohelpnarrowdowninitialimplementationconsiderSpecificproductsSpecificrawmaterialsSpecificoperationsSpecificfailuremodesExercise:Identify3candidatesfromcasestudyExpresscandidatesinthefollowingform:Name
Predict<Measure><withscope>Using<Method>Usepredictiontoperform<Action>Insupportof<BusinessObjective>SampleAnswers:FinalInspectionTasteTest
Predict
InspectionSampleSizeForProduct
TasteTestUsingSPSSModelertocorrelaterawmaterialsvariabilitywithpreviousinspectionresultsandcalculateahealthscoreforeachbatch.UseStatstocalculateInspectionSizebasedonhealthscore.UsepredictiontoenableadaptiveinspectionsamplingInsupportof
CostReductionbyreducingeffortandincreasingyieldTastetestsamplesizeiscurrentlyfixed.Theremaybeopportunitiestoreducetheamountoftastetestingdonetoreducecosts.Theremayalsobeopportunitiestochangetimingoftastetest–sothatitoccursbeforefinalassembly.Thiswillreducescrap.
SampleCandidates:AnalyticSupplierManagement
Predict
GradeForSupplierUsingSPSSModelertocorrelatedataaboutmilkproductionwithgradingresults.UsepredictiontobemoreprescriptiveaboutfarmingpracticesInsupportof
increasingprofitabilitybyincreasingyieldofhighmarginproduct
SampleAnswers:AnalyticSupportforRawMaterialsGrading
Predict
GradeForInspectionofrawmaterialsinGoodsReceivingUsingSPSSModelertocorrelaterawmaterialsmeasurementsandtastingnoteswithhistoricalfinalinspectionresults.Supplementhumanassessmentofgradewithananalyticresult.Usepredictiontore-tastebatcheswherethereisadiscrepancyInsupportof
IncreasedProfitabilitybyoptimizingyieldofhighmarginproductandReducedCostbyreducinghighscrapratesforhighmarginproductThegradingprocessiscurrentlyunreliable…..yetplaysabigroleinyieldandscrapSampleAnswers:AnalyticSupportforFinishedGoodsGrading
Predict
InspectionPass/FailForFinishedGoodsUsingSPSSModelertocorrelateprocessvariability,rawmaterialsmeasurementsandtastingnoteswithhistoricalfinalinspectionresults.Supplementhumanassessmentofgradewithananalyticresult.Usepredictiontore-tastebatcheswherethereisadiscrepancyInsupportof
ReducedCostbyreducinghighscrapratesforhighmarginproductSimilartorawmaterialsgrading–butappliedtofinishedproductSampleAnswers:PredictiveMaintenanceforExtruder
Predict
EquipmentHealthForExtruderUsingSPSSModelertocorrelateexposuretomoisture,contaminantbuildupandotherequipmentmeasurementswithhistoricalfailures.UsepredictiontoscheduleinspectionandcleaningInsupportof
ReducedCostbyreducingpreventativemaintenancecostsExercise:EvaluatecandidatesEvaluatecandidatesaccordingtothefollowingcriteriaFrequencyofoccurance:Currentdetectionmethod:Currenttimetodetect:CurrentFalsepositiverate:CurrentFalsenegativerate:Currentlevelofautomateddecisioning:Expectedimpactonbusinessobjectives:Dataavailability:Exercise:SelectacandidateSelectasinglecandidateforapilot.Writeajustificationforyourdecision.Indicateameasurablenumerictar
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