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FinancialAspectsoftheHousehold,Business,Government,andRest-of-the-WorldSectors

2HouseholdBehaviorfromaFinancialPerspectiveThecollectionofrealassets,financialassets,andliabilitiesiscalledaportfolioahousehold’sportfoliocanbedisplayedonabalancesheetmeasuresassets,liabilities,andnetworthonaparticulardateAggregatingoverallhouseholdsgivesabalancesheetforthehouseholdsector3TheBalanceSheetEntriesoftheHouseholdSector4HouseholdBehaviorfromaFinancialPerspectiveConsumptionexpendituresarethelargestcomponentofaggregatedemandthus,householdspendingisextremelyimportantinthemacroeconomy5HouseholdBehaviorfromaFinancialPerspectiveResearchintoconsumerbehaviorsuggeststhathouseholdportfoliodecisionsareguidedbycertainobjectives,includingahighstandardoflivinghouseholdswilldevelopdesiredportfoliosintheirefforttoachieveabetterquantityandqualityoflife6AssetAccumulation:SpendingandSavingHouseholdsacquirerealassetswhentheyengageinconsumptionspendingondurablegoodsorinvestmentspendingonnewlyconstructedhousestheydesirerealassetsfortheflowofservicestheyprovidecertainrealassetsmaybedesiredbecauseofexpectedcapitalgains7AssetAccumulation:SpendingandSavingFinancialassetsserveasastoreofvalueorpurchasingpowerthatcanbeusedinthefuturegenerallyprovideincometotheholderintheformofinterestanddividends(andsometimescapitalgains)8AssetAccumulation:SpendingandSavingRetirementandfuturespendingplansprovidestrongmotivesforhouseholdstobecomenetlendersUncertaintyalsoprovidesasubstantialmotiveprovidesadesiretoholdliquidassets9LiabilityAccumulation:BorrowingPeriodically,ahouseholdwillconsumemorethanitscurrentincomeorportfolioofassetscanfinanceatthattimethisiswheretheaccumulationoffinancialliabilitiescomesin10LiabilityAccumulation:BorrowingAdecisiontoborrowtodayisreallytwodecisionsadecisiontoborrowtodayadecisiontorepaywhatisborrowedplusinterestinthefutureTheborroweriswillingtotradeofffuturepurchasingpowerforcurrentpurchasingpower11LiabilityAccumulation:BorrowingBorrowingfacilitatesthesmoothingoutofhouseholdspendingandconsumptionovertimeHouseholdsmayalsoborrowtoacquireknowledgeandskillswhichwillleadtoahigherincomeTheymayalsoborrowtoacquirerealorfinancialassetsthatareexpectedtoriseinvalueovertime12LiabilityAccumulation:BorrowingHouseholdsfaceaborrowingconstraintastheratioofdebttoincomerises,theabilityofahouseholdtopayoffadditionaldebtisreducedsincetheprobabilityofdefaultishigher,financialintermediariesarereluctanttograntnewloanstoborrowerswhoareheavilyindebt13HouseholdPortfolioChoicesHouseholdsaccumulaterealandfinancialassetsandliabilitiesinanattempttomaximizetheirwell-being.Householdswillspendmoreorlessandaccumulatemoreorlessrealandfinancialassetsandliabilitiesinanattempttoreachtheirdesiredportfolios.Inresponsetothechangingenvironment,householdschangetheirdesiredportfoliosofassetsandliabilities.Changesandexpectedchangesinincome,wealth,andinterestrateschangetheeconomicandfinancialenvironment.14EconomicandFinancialConditionsHouseholdspendingmustbefinancedusingextraincomeexistingholdingsofmoneyborrowingliquidationofrealorfinancialassets15EconomicandFinancialConditionsFluctuationsinhouseholdincomeandnetworthareusuallydirectlyassociatedwithhouseholdwillingnessandabilitytospendandborrowkeepinmindthatthecausationbetweenaggregateconsumptionandrealincomerunsinbothdirections16EconomicandFinancialConditionsThemostobviousdeterminantofspending,saving,borrowing,orlendingistheinterestrateiftheinterestraterises,thecostofborrowingandtherewardforlendingriseiftheinterestraterises,householdsshouldreducetheirborrowingandspendingondurablesandincreasetheirsavingandlending17FinancialAspectsoftheBehaviorofNonfinancialFirmsBusinessfirmsholdrealassetsandfinancialassetsBusinessreceiptsandexpendituresarenotsynchronizedfirmsusecashmanagementtechniquestomovefundsinandoutofhighlyliquidshort-termfinancialassetstominimizethecostofholdingrealmoneybalances18FinancialAspectsoftheBehaviorofNonfinancialFirmsLiabilitiesrepresentwhatthefirmowesbondsoutstandinglong-termmortgagesshort-termdebtcommercialpaperoutstandingThefundsacquiredthroughborrowingareusedtofinancecurrentoperationsandtheacquisitionofnewcapital19FinancialAspectsoftheBehaviorofNonfinancialFirmsThedifferencebetweenthefirm’sassetsanditsliabilitiesisabusiness’networthorowners’equityAggregatingoverallbusinessfirmsgivesabalancesheetforthebusinesssector20TheBalanceSheetoftheBusinessSector21TheAccumulationofRealAssetsbyFirms:CapitalandInventoriesAfirm’smostimportantrealassetsareitscapitalstockandinventoriesBusinessspendingonnewequipment,theconstructionofaplan,oranincreaseininventoriesiscalledinvestmentspendingthisdecisiondependscruciallyonexpectedprofits22TheAccumulationofRealAssetsbyFirms:CapitalandInventoriesDepreciationistheamountofinvestmentthatwouldberequiredtoreplacethecapitalstockwornoutinthecurrentproductionprocessIfinvestmentspending=depreciation,afirm’scapitalstockdoesnotincreaseNetinvestmentincreasesthecapitalstockorinventories23BusinessInvestmentBusinessInvestmentToreplaceworn-outorobsoletecapital(plant,equipment,andmachinery)Toincreasethecapitalstock(plant,equipment,andmachinery)Toaddtoinventories(rawmaterials,goodsinprocess,finishedgoods)24TheAccumulationofRealAssetsbyFirms:CapitalandInventoriesFirms’decisionstoinvestplaytwokeyrolesintheeconomyinvestmentspendingisanimportantcomponentofaggregatedemandincreasesinthecapitalstockraisethenation’sproductivecapacityenhancesourstandardoflivingandcompetitivepositionintheworldeconomy25TheAccumulationofRealAssetsbyFirms:CapitalandInventoriesSupposethatafirmfindsthatitcanincreaseitsprofitsbyinvestinginnewcapitalwillassessthecostsandrevenuesassociatedwithvariousinvestmentprojectswillcomparetherateofreturnoneachprojectwiththecostoffinancingthatproject26TheAccumulationofRealAssetsbyFirms:CapitalandInventoriesThecostoffinancialcapitalistheprevailingrealinterestratethecostofborrowingtheopportunitycostofusingthefirm’sownfunds27TheAccumulationofRealAssetsbyFirms:CapitalandInventoriesTheexpectedreturnisthepresentvalueofthefuturestreamofreturnsassociatedwithaparticularprojectthevalueofthestreamisdeterminedbytheprofitstheprojectisexpectedtogenerate28TheAccumulationofRealAssetsbyFirms:CapitalandInventoriesTheexpectedprofitswillbeafunctionoftheproductivityofthecapitalgoodthepriceofthefirm’soutputthecostsassociatedwithoperatingandmaintainingthecapitalgoodfederal,state,andlocaltaxes29TheAccumulationof

LiabilitiesbyFirmsFromtimetotime,firmswillexperienceperiodswhenexpendituresexceedreceiptsAsaresult,firmsmustmakeseveralportfoliodecisionsregardingthefinancingofexcessspending30BusinessFinanceFinancingNeedExternalInternalRetainedEarningsEquityDebtLong-TermDebtShort-TermDebt31TheAccumulationof

LiabilitiesbyFirmsInternalfinancingisthespendingofmoneybalancesonhandortheliquidationoffinancialorrealassetslargestsourceoffundsforbusinessfirmsTherearetwotypesofexternalfundingexpandingequityissuingsharesofpreferredorcommonstockexpandingdebtissuinglong-termorshort-termdebt32TheAccumulationof

LiabilitiesbyFirmsTherelativecostofalternativesourcesoffinancialcapitalwillbeinfluencedbytheparticulartypesofexpendituresbeingfinancedthecurrentfinancialenvironmentandexpectationsaboutthefutureenvironmentthefirm’sfinancialstructuretaxlaws33TheAccumulationof

LiabilitiesbyFirmsBorrowingtofinanceinventorieshastraditionallytakentheformofshort-termbankloansortheissuanceofcommercialpapertheusualmaturityis1to6monthsFluctuationsininventoryinvestmentoverthebusinesscycleexplainmuchoftheshort-termdebtaccumulatedbyfirms34TheAccumulationof

LiabilitiesbyFirmsHowever,firmsmayissuealsoshort-termdebtiftheybelievethatlong-termrateswillfallinthefuturethus,expectationsaboutcurrentandfutureratesplayanimportantroleinfirmfinancingdecisions35TheAccumulationof

LiabilitiesbyFirmsTheratioofdebttoequityonafirm’sbalancesheetisknownasthefirm’sleverageratiothehighertheleverageratio,thegreatertherisktobondholdersandstockholdersifahighlyleveragefirmexperiencesasharpdeclineinearnings,itmaybeforcedintobankruptcy36TheAccumulationof

LiabilitiesbyFirmsFromthemid-1970suntil1991,firmsgenerallychosetofinancenewpurchasesofcapitalusinglong-termdebtinterestondebtistaxdeductibleFrom1991to1994,firmsissuednewsharesofstockinsteadhouseholdswereputtingsavingsinmutualfundsratherthanCDsorsavingsaccountsStartingin1998,firmsbegantobuystocksback37FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorGovernmentspendingongoodsandservicesisacomponentofaggregatedemandnotthesameastotalgovernmentoutlaysbecausewedonotincludetransferpayments38FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorAnincreaseingovernmentpurchaseswillleadtoariseinaggregatedemandiftheeconomywasatlessthanfullemployment,theresultmaybeanincreaseinincomeandadropinunemploymentiftheeconomywasatfullemployment,theresultwillbeadropinprivatespendingoranincreaseinrealborrowingfromabroad39FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorAdecreaseingovernmentpurchaseswillleadtoafallinaggregatedemandingeneral,theresultwillbeadecreaseinincomeandariseinunemploymentiftheeconomywasatfullemployment,theresultwillbeanincreaseinprivatespendingorafallinrealborrowingfromabroad40FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorAllincreasesingovernmentspendingmustbefinancedeitherbytaxincreasesorbytheissuanceofgovernmentsecuritiesbothofthesecanreduceprivatespendinganincreaseintaxesreduceshouseholds’disposableincometheissuanceofgovernmentsecuritiescanincreaseinterestrates41FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorIncreasedgovernmentspendingmayalsoleadtoinflationiftheinflationisunanticipated,itmayharmcreditorsanddebilitatetheentireeconomy42FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorDecreasedgovernmentspendingmaybebeneficialtotheeconomyforavarietyofreasonslowertaxesreducedpublicdebtlowerinflation43FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorItisdifficulttojudgeifthebenefitsofincreased(ordecreased)governmentspendingoutweighthecostsThisprocessisfurthercomplicatedbypoliticalconsiderations44FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorToobtainarelativegaugeofthegrowthofthegovernmentsector,analystsfinditusefultoviewgovernmentoutlaysandreceiptsinrelationtothegeneraleconomyasawholepercentageofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)45FederalOutlaysandReceiptsasaPercentageofGDP,FY1960-200146FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorBorrowingdirectlyconnectsgovernmentactionstothefinancialsystemifoutlays>receipts,thegovernmentmustborrowoutlays–receipts=newborrowing=netgovernmentdemandforloanablefunds47FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorThepublicdebtisthetotalofallpastdeficitsminuspastsurplusestotaled$6.8trillionasofSeptember2003$3.9trillionofthedebtisheldbythepublictherestisheldbygovernmentagenciessuchastheFedandtheSocialSecurityAdministration48FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorIfsomepreviouslyissueddebtismaturingandthegovernmentisnotabletopayitoff,thatdebtmustberolledovernewborrowing(calledrefunding)mustoccurtorefinancethepartofdebtthatiscomingduethisdoesnotaddtothepublicdebt49FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorIfthegovernmentrunsasurplus,thesurpluscanbeusedtopayoffmaturingdebtthevalueofthepublicdebtisreducedbytheamountofthesurplusnetgovernmentdemandforloanablefundsisnegative50FinancialAspectsofGovernmentBehaviorTheTreasuryisthelargestsingleborrowerinfinancialmarketsTominimizethedisruptionsthatitsfinancingoperationscancauseinthemarket,theTreasuryhasregularizedalargepartofitsfinancingactivityannouncesitsintentionswellinadvanceborrowsatregularintervals51FinancialEffectsofGovernmentBorrowingGovernmentborrowing(orgovernmentsurpluses)hasaneffectontheavailabilityandcostoffundstootherborrowersThechangesinthespendingplansoftheseotherborrowerswillimpacttheoverallpaceofeconomicactivityandinflation52FinancialEffectsofGovernmentBorrowingAriseingovernmentborrowingwillincreasethedemandforloanablefundsthiswillcausetheinterestratetorisethiswillreducetheflowoffundstoprivateborrowersprivatespendingmaydeclineasaresultThisphenomenonisknownascrowdingout53FinancialEffectsofGovernmentBorrowingAdecreaseingovernmentborrowingwilldecreasethedemandforloanablefundsthiswillcausetheinterestratetofallprivatespendingmayriseasaresult54FinancialEffectsofGovernmentBorrowingInterestratesanddeficitsdonotalwaysmoveupanddowntogetherdecreasesinthedemandforloanablefundsbyhouseholdsandfirmscouldoccurtooffsettheincreaseindemandbythegovernmentthesupplyofloanablefundsmayriseforeignnetlendersmaydecideU.S.financialassetsaremoreattractive55TheRest-of-the-WorldSectorTheexchangerateisdeterminedbytheforcesofsupplyanddemandThedemandandsupplyofforeignexchangeareaffectedbychangesineithertheforeignorthedomesticeconomy56TheRest-of-the-WorldSectorAsthedollarappreciatesexportsbecomemoreexpensiveforforeignersimportsbecomecheaperfordomesticresidentsnetexportsfallaggregatedemandfalls57TheRest-of-the-WorldSectorAnypolicyactionthataffectsthedomesticeconomywillalsoaffecttheinternationaleconomytheseeffectswillthenfeedbackintothedomesticeconomyDevelopmentsintheinternationaleconomywillalsoaffectthedomesticeconomy58TheRest-of-the-WorldSectorAsinternationaltradeandfinancebecomemoresignificant,thiseffectgetslargerTherehasbeensignificantgrowthininternationaltradefortheU.S.overthepast30years59ExportsandImports,1960-200460TheEffectsofInternationalEventsontheInterestRateWhenpurchasesofU.S.financialclaimsbyforeignersexceedpurchasesofforeignfinancialclaimsbyU.S.residents,theU.S.experiencesanetcapitalinflowthesupplyofloanablefundsisgreaterthedomesticinterestrateislower61TheEffectsofInternationalEventsontheInterestRateWhennetexportsarepositive(sothereisasurplusinthecurrentaccount).thereisanetcapitaloutflowthesupplyofloanablefundsislowerthedomesticinterestrateishigher62NetFinancialInvestmentintheU.S.bytheRestoftheWorld,1960-200463TheEffectsofInternationalEventsontheInterestRateAnimportantdeterminantofforeignpurchasesofdomesticfinancialassetsistheU.S.interestraterelativetoforeigninterestratesifU.S.interestratesrise,fundswillflowinfromabroadtheU.S.interestratewillenduplowerasaresult64TheEffectsofInternationalEventsontheInterestRateInaddition,arelativelyhighU.S.interestratewillincreasethedemandfordollars,causingthedollartoappreciatethiswillcauseadeclineinnetexportsThus,changesindomesticinterestratesaffectcapitalinflows,whichalsoaffecttheexchangerateandnetexports65TheFlowofFundsamongSectorsTheflowoffundsisasocialaccountingsystemthatdividestheeconomyintoanumberofsectorsandconstructsasourcesandusesoffundsstatementforeachsector66TheFlowofFundsamongSectorsTherearefourmainsectors:householdbusinessgovernmentrest-of-the-world67TheFlowofFundsamongSectorsForanysector,thesourcesofincomearecurrentincomeandborrowingTheusesoffundsarecurrentspendingandchangesinfinancialinstrumentsheld68TheFlowofFundsamongSectorsAnysectoriscomposedofnetlendersandnetborrowersifthecombinedsurplusesoflendersexceedthecombineddeficitsofborrowers,thesectorisasurplussectorifthecombineddeficitsofborrowersexceedthecombinedsurplusesoflenders,thesectorisadeficitsector69TheFlowofFundsamongSectorsForallsectorscombined,borrowingmustequallendingeachfinancialclaimimpliestheexistenceofacomplementaryfinancialasset70SurplusandDeficitSectors71TheFlowofFundsamongSectorsFinancialintermediationfacilitatestheflowsoffundsfromthesurplustothedeficitsectorsForeveryuseoffunds,theremustbeasourceoffundsEverysourceoffundsisputtosomeuseTotalsourcesandusesoffundsmustbeequal72AHypotheticalSourcesandUsesofFundsStatementfortheU.S.Economy(Billionsof$)73AHypotheticalSourcesandUsesofFundsStatementfortheU.S.Economy(Billionsof$)74SummaryofMajorPointsSpendingandsavingdecisionsofhouseholdsarebasedontheirobjectivesandtheeconomicandfinancialenvironmentwithinwhichtheyoperatechangesinincome,wealth,andinterestratesarethekeyforcesdrivinghouseholdportfolioadjustmentsconsumptionspendingbyhouseholdsisthelargestcomponen

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