bcg -引领美国汽车经销商迈向盈利未来 Steering US Auto Dealers Toward a Profitable Future

BCG

AUTOMOTIVEINDUSTRY

SteeringUSAutoDealersTowardaProfitableFuture

By

AmirKolton

andEricJesse

ARTICLEMARCH26,202512MINREAD

Followingaperiodofunprecedentedprofitsfueledbysupplyshortagesandhighdemand,USautodealershipshave,overthepasttwoyears,facedastarklydifferentreality.Highinterestrates,

affordabilitychallengesforconsumers,areboundinvehiclesupply,andshiingconsumer

preferencesaresqueezingmarginsandforcingdealerstorethinktheirstrategies.Asnew-vehiclepricesdeclineandusedinventorybecomeshardertosource,manydealershipsarefocusingonoperationalefficienciesandnewrevenuestreamstostaycompetitive.

©2025BostonConsultingGroup1

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TounderstandhowstructuralchangesinUS

automotive

retailingareunfolding,BCGsurveyed

morethan160autodealers,fromsmall,independentoutletstolargefranchises.Thislatesteditionofourannualsurvey,conductedinlate2024andearly2025,examineddealers’outlookontheUSautomarketandhowfactorssuchascompetition,affordability,shiingdemand,andAIadoptionareshapingtheirbusinesses.Theresearch,combinedwithinsightsfromourworkonmorethan

500automotiveprojectsoverthepastthreeyears,offersauniqueperspectiveonhowtheindustryisevolving.

Ourfindingshighlightkeytrendsinnew-andused-vehiclesalesandserviceandparts,aswellas

someemergingopportunities.Thebottomline:dealersareincreasinglyopentousingdata,digitalsolutions,andAI-driventoolstomaximizecorebusinessprofitabilitywhilediversifyingtheirserviceofferingstosecurelong-termrevenuegrowth.Incontrasttopastyears,whendealersmayhavehadtheflexibilitytodelaysuchchanges,today’smarketpressuresmeanthatadaptingquicklyisno

longeroptional.

TheEvolvingAutoRetailLandscape

Since2023,theautoretailmarkethasbeencorrecting,promptingdealerstoshitheirfocusfromlong-termconcernsidentifiedinpreviousBCGdealersurveys—suchasthetransitiontoelectric

vehiclesandcompetitionfromOEMs—toabroadersetofimmediatechallenges,includingoptimizingprofitabilityacrosscorerevenuestreams.

Dealers’marginsareunderpressureastheinflowofnewvehiclesincreaseswhileaffordability

challengesdampendemand.Risinginventoriesandhighfloor-planningcostsaresqueezingprofits,withpricingpressuresdrivingtransactionpriceslower.Meanwhile,serviceandpartsrevenuesarebecominganincreasinglyimportantprofitdriverasconsumerskeepvehicleslonger.(SeeExhibit

1.)However,evenwithslowerthanexpectedadoption,EVspresentriskstoaersales—offering

fewerroutinemaintenanceopportunitieswhilerequiringgreaterspecialization.Atthesametime,digitalretailcapabilitiesarebecomingcritical,asmoreofthecustomerjourney,particularly

financing,movesonline.

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Againstthisbackdrop,dealershipM&Aactivityhasslowedasmarketuncertaintycomplicatesdealmaking.Manydealersseekacquisitionstoimprovetheefficiencyoftheirinvestmentsinnew

capabilitiesthroughincreasedscale.Evenso,transactionvolumeandsizehavedeclinedasbuyersandsellersstruggletoalignonvaluationsandmarketoutlooks.Volumefellfromapproximately

700dealsin2021toapproximately500in2024.Oursurveyfindingsindicatethatmoredealersarelookingtobuythansell,likelyintensifyingcompetitionforattractiveopportunities.

Asthesedynamicsunfold,dealershipsareprioritizingmarginoptimizationacrossallrevenuestreamstomaintainresilience.

NewVehicles:DecliningDemandSlowsSalesGrowth

New-vehiclesalesgrowthhasslowedsharply,fromapproximately12%in2023toapproximately2%in2024,accordingtoS&PGlobalMobility.Althoughincreasedsupplyplaysarole,affordability

remainsamajorconstraint,ashigherinterestratesandrisingmonthlypaymentsarepricingoutlower-creditbuyers.AmongthedealersBCGsurveyed,50%reportedthatinterestratesin2024greatlyaffectedlocaldemand.

Reinforcingaffordabilityconcerns,dealersnotedthattheaveragecreditscoresofcarbuyershaverisen.ThisisconfirmedbyExperianresearch,whichfoundthattheaveragecreditscoreroseby11pointsfornew-vehiclebuyersand18pointsforused-vehiclebuyersfrom2022to2024,far

outpacingtheoverallUSaveragecreditscoreincrease.Thefinancialstrainisalsoevidentin

delinquencyratesforautoloans,whichclimbed63%fromMarch2021toJune2024,accordingtoFederalReservedata.Tomanageaffordability,somebuyersareoptingforcashpurchasesor

leasing.

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Inresponse,OEMshavebeenmoredeliberateinmanagingUSvolumes.Theyalsomorethan

doubledincentivesin2023and2024comparedwith2022;accordingtoKelleyBlueBookdata,

incentivesreachedapproximately8%oftheaveragetransactionprice(ATP)inthefourthquarterof

2024.However,thesemeasureshavenotbeensufficienttooffsetweakeningdemand.Daystosellrosefrom30inearly2023tonearly60in2024,accordingtobothWardsIntelligencedataand

BCG’sdealersurveys,furtherstrainingdealershipprofitability.

Atthesametime,38%ofdealersreportthathigherinterestrateshaveseverelyorsignificantly

impactedfloor-planningcosts.Asinventoryfinancingbecomesmoreexpensive,dealersface

mountingpressureinanalreadychallengingmarket,makingitevenmorecriticaltoreducedaystosell.

Dealers’desiretoclearrisinginventorieshasputpressureonnew-vehicleprices,withATP

decliningbyapproximately4%fromthethirdquarterof2022tothethirdquarterof2024,

accordingtoNationalAutomobileDealersAssociation(NADA)data.Notably,abouthalfofthisdeclinewasdrivenbyincreaseddiscounts,whiletheotherhalfreflectsachangingproductmix,suchassellingmorelower-costvehiclesandreducingpremiumfeatures—bothresponsesto

customeraffordabilityheadwinds.

Dealers’abilitytosellabovethemanufacturer’ssuggestedretailprice(MSRP)droppedby

approximately50%in2024comparedwith2023,accordingtodealersurveyresponses.Thismarksasharpreversalfromtheexceptionalpricingpowerthatdealersrecentlyenjoyed.Asaresult,

dealermargins,whichreachedrecordhighstwotothreeyearsago,arenowundersignificantstrainasretailersnavigatethechallengeofbalancingvolumeandprofitabilityinanincreasinglydifficultmarket.

Theeconomicpressure,coupledwithlowerthanexpecteddemandforEVs,hasresultedin

disappointinggrowthratesforEVsales.(See“EVAdoptionIsSlowasModelsFailtoMeet

CustomerNeeds.”)Toclearinventory,OEMshavehadtoboostincentivesto14%ofATP—twiceashighasfortraditionalvehicles.

EVAdoptionIsSlowasModelsFailtoMeetCustomerNeeds

ThetransitiontoEVsisprogressingmoreslowlythanexpected,primarilybecauseofalackofmodelsthatmeetconsumerexpectationsforprice,range,andsize.

Accordingtoa

BCGcustomersurvey

,38%ofconsumersare"next-waveadopters."

TheseindividualsshareattributeswithcurrentEVownersbutremainhesitant

owingtothemarket’sinabilitytomeettheircriteria,suchasmodelspricedunder$50,000witharangeexceeding350miles.

Withpricesremaininghigh,EVbuyersatnearlytwo-thirdsofsurveyeddealershipsgenerallyhavehigheraverageincomesthannon-EVbuyers.Toaccelerateadoptionamonglower-incomebuyers,dealersbelievethatreducedpurchaseprices—

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throughfewerpremiumfeaturesorincreaseddiscounts—arecritical.(Seetheexhibitbelow.)

Lookingahead,approximately25%ofdealersviewnewEVentrants(suchasTesla,

Lucid,andRivian)assignificantthreats.Tocompete,theyneedtocollaboratewith

theirOEMstosecurewell-equipped,attractivelypricedEVs—likelyrequiring

adjustmentstothetraditionalsalesmodel.

Despitethesepressures,morethan70%ofsurveyeddealersexpectvehiclesalesgrowthto

continuein2025,signalingcautiousoptimismamidongoingmarketadjustments.However,dealerprofitabilitywilllikelyremainunderpressure.

Tosustainprofitability,dealersmusttakeproactivemeasures.Targetedmarketinginvestmentsareessentialtostimulatedemandinprioritysegmentsandattractbuyersdespiteaffordability

constraints.Atthesametime,leveraginganalytics-drivenorderingwillhelpaligninventorywithactualdemand,reducingexcessstockandmitigatingtheimpactofrisingfloor-planningcosts.

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UsedVehicles:Sourcing

ChallengesandPriceErosionSqueezeMargins

Dealersarefacingincreasingchallengesinsourcingusedvehicleswhiledemandhassurged.

Followingadeclinein2023,used-carretailsalesrose10%year-over-yearinthefourthquarterof2024,accordingtovAutodata.However,34%ofsurveyeddealerssaidthesupplyofusedvehicleswasalargeorseverechallengeattheirdealerships,withanadditional42%reportingthatitwasamoderatechallenge.

Tofillinventorygaps,dealersarerelyingmoreonauctions,whichraiseacquisitioncosts.Atthe

sametime,theATPforusedvehiclesfellby6%during2023and2024,accordingtoNADAdata.

Thecombinationofhigheracquisitioncostsanddecliningretailpricesissqueezingdealer

profitability.Mostsurveyeddealersanticipatethat2025willseeanincreaseintrade-invaluesandcashoffersforusedvehicles,increasingsourcingcompetition.

Toremaincompetitiveintheused-vehiclemarket,dealersmustsecurehigh-qualitytrade-insto

mitigaterisingacquisitioncosts.AI-driventoolsareunlockingsignificantvalue,helpingdealershipsoptimizelocaldemandandsupply,refinepricingstrategies(forbothvehicleacquisitionsand

sales),andmakesmarterpurchasingdecisions.Byleveragingdata-driveninsights,dealerscan

betternavigatesupplyconstraintsandprotectmarginsinamoreandmorecompetitivelandscape.

ServiceandParts:AnIncreasinglyVitalRoleinGrowthand

Profitability

USconsumersarekeepingtheirvehicleslonger,andthistrendislikelytopersist.Theaverageagehasincreasedfrom12.5to12.6yearsacrossallvehiclesandfrom13.6to14yearsforpassenger

cars.Asaresult,evenasnew-andused-vehiclesalesfaceheadwinds,serviceremainsacriticalandgrowingareafordealerships.Amongsurveyeddealers,70%reportedgrowthinservicerevenuesin2024.

Dealershaveastrongcompetitivepositioninserviceandparts,drivenbytheirdirectownershipofthecustomerrelationship,risingwarranty-relatedserviceneeds(benefitingfranchisedealers),and

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increasingvehiclecomplexity.Indeed,service,repairs,andpartssalesaretheonlycontributionstodealers’grossprofitsthatareconsistentlygrowing.

However,thisrevenuestreamfaceschallengesasEVadoptiondisruptstraditionalservicemodels.Forexample,batteryEVsgenerate

about20%lessaermarketpartsspending

thancomparablefossilfuelcars.Long-termsuccesswillrequiretheeffectivescalingofoperations,asrevenueper

vehicleshistowardeithersimple,high-frequencyservicesliketirereplacementorcomplex,infrequentproceduressuchascalibrationandEVbatteryreplacement.

Tonavigatetheseshis,dealersmustleveragetheirexistingknowledgeofcustomers.Whilethird-partyserviceprovidersmustbuildnetworksandearncustomertrustfromscratch,dealershipsarealreadypositionedtodeepencustomerloyalty.Capitalizingonthisedgerequiresmodernizingtheirserviceoperationsandadaptingtoevolvingvehicletechnologies.EstablishingEVservice

capabilitiesandscalingnetworksacrossdealerships—similartotheapproachusedbycollision

centers—willbeessential.Atthesametime,enhancingconnectivityandpersonalizationthroughdigitalscheduling,AI-poweredchats,andtextmessagereminderswillimproveretentionandthe

customerexperience

whilepotentiallyreducingoperatingexpenses.End-to-endautomationacross

serviceoperations

willfurtherstreamlineprocesses,reducecosts,anddriveefficiency.

NewOpportunities:DiversifyingRevenuesandEmbracingAIandDigitalRetailtoStrengthenCoreBusinesses

Toadapttoshiingprofitpoolsandevolvingcustomerpreferences,dealersareactivelyexploringnewopportunitiesoutsidetheircorebusinesses.Emergingrevenuestreams—suchasEVchargingandfleetandmobileservicing—aregainingtractionasdealershipsseektodiversifytheirofferings.(SeeExhibit2.)

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However,noclearindustry-widepriorityhasemerged,reflectinganongoingexperimentationphaseasdealersevaluatewhichavenuesbestalignwiththeiroperationsandcustomerneeds.Thepushforinnovationisdrivenbytheimperativetocaptureadditionalvalueinachangingmarketwhile

addressinggrowingdemandsforflexibilityandsustainability.

Atthesametime,dealersareembracingAIanddigitalretailtodrivetop-linegrowthandboostthebottomlinefortheircorebusinesses.Increasingly,theyareexploringAIadoptiontoenhance

efficiencyandprofitability,withmorethan80%ofsurveyeddealersdefinitelyplanningtoinvestinAIinthenexttwoyears.(SeeExhibit3.)Althoughnearly50%arepreparedtoinvestsignificantly,another35%saidtheypreferamorecautious,moderateinvestmentapproach.

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Dealers’concernsaboutdatasecurity(heightenedbyindustry-relatedcyberincidentsin2024),alongwithexpertisegaps,uncertainreturnoninvestment,andhighmaintenancecosts,couldimpedeadoptionofAI.Inaddition,manydealersremainunsureaboutwhichAIusecaseswilldeliverthemostvalue.

StakeholdereducationandawarenessaboutthebenefitsofAIarecrucialtounlockingits

potential.ManydealersbelievethatclearinsightsintoAI’spracticalapplications—suchas

inventorymanagement,customerpersonalization,andoperationalefficiency—areneededtoaccelerateadoptionanddrivedirectinvestment.

DealerswillneedsupporttoovercomethebarriersandscaleAIsolutionseffectively.WhilemanyrecognizeAI’spotentialtoassistinnavigatingmarketheadwinds,successwillrequireanaction-basedtest-and-learnapproach.Inrecentprojects,BCGcollaboratedwithdealerstodevelop

AI

toolsthat,forexample,helpedtoconfigurevehiclesthatsellupto30%fasterandtooptimizethepricingofusedandnewvehicles,improvingmarginsbymorethan5%.

Theshitodigitalretailcontinuestoreshapetheindustry,withdealersexpectingsignificant

growthinonlineactivitiesthrough2030acrossthecustomerjourney.(SeeExhibit4.)Oursurveyalsofoundthatapproximately80%ofdealerleadsarenowgeneratedonline,underscoringthe

needforintegrationbetweendigitalandphysicaltouchpoints.Whileactivitieslikeschedulingtestdrivesandcreditpre-approvalsareincreasinglycompletedonline,finalizingcontractsand

customizingvehiclespecificationsarestillconductedmainlyatthedealership.

A

BCGstudyofcustomerreviews

foundthat“easeandconvenience”isahigherpriorityformanybuyersthanfinancing,salessupport,orservice.Thisunderscorestheneedfordealerstodeliveraseamlessexperienceacrosschannelstomeetcustomerexpectations.

Recognizingtheprofitabilityofdigital,techgiantsareenteringthespace.Forexample,Amazon’se-dealershipenablesone-clickcarpurchases.Dealersgainanew

digitalsales

channel,while

Amazoncapturesmarketingrevenueandtheabilitytosteerhigh-marginfinancingrevenue

withouttheneedforfloorplanfinancing,deliverylogistics,andserviceobligations.Asmoretech

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companiesdevelopdigitalplatformsforvehiclesalesandfinancing,dealershipsrisklosingfinancerevenuesunlesstheyenhancetheirowndigitalretailcapabilities.

Tostaycompetitive,dealersmustsimplifyanddigitizetheend-to-endpurchaseexperiencefor

bothnew-andused-vehiclepurchases.Thismeansintegratingdigitalcreditapprovals,streamliningloanprocesses,andensuringfrictionlesstransactionsacrosschannels.Byembracingautomation,AI-drivenfinancingmodels,anduser-friendlydigitalplatforms,dealershipscanprotectandexpandtheirrevenuestreamsinanincreasinglydigital-firstmarket.

NavigatingtheRoadAhead

Dealersfacegrowingchallengesthatareexpectedtopersistinthecomingyears.Torespond

effectively,theymustadoptboldstrategiesandbepreparedtoadjusttheirtraditionaloperatingmodelsandthetypesandsourcesoftheirtalent.

LeveragingAIanddata-driventoolswillbeessentialforoptimizinginventorymanagement,

reducingdaystosell,enhancingdynamicpricingstrategies,andimprovingcustomertargetingandconversion.Itwillalsodriveoperationalefficiencyacrossthedealershipvaluestream.

Revampingdigitalplatformsandcustomerjourneysiscriticaltodeliveringaseamlessexperienceacrossdigitalandphysicalchannels,therebystrengtheningcustomerloyaltythroughconvenience.Additionally,dealershipsmustbuildcapabilitiestosupportAIadoption,prepareforEVintegration,andadapttoemergingtechnologies.Atthesametime,theymuststrategicallygrowtheirfootprintandexpandtheirserviceofferings,bothorganicallyandthroughM&A.Theseactionsareessentialtonavigatingcurrentchallengesanddrivingsustainablegrowth.

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