【UNCTAD】2025全球贸易动态报告关税升级对小型脆弱经济体的影响4月版

APRIL2025

Globaltradeupdateplus

PolicyInsights

Escalatingtariffs:theimpactonsmallandvulnerableeconomies

Inrecentmonths,theUnitedStateshasintroduced

trademeasuresthathave

transformedthecurrenttradelandscape.ThiseditionoftheGlobalTradeUpdateprovidesatimelineofthetradepolicydecisionsbytheUnited

StatesadministrationthatareshapingthisnewlandscapebasedoncurrentUnited

Stateslaw.Italsoprovidesabriefanalysisoftheimpactof“reciprocaltariffs”onsmallandvulnerableeconomies

andLeastDeveloped

Countries.Itfindsthatin

manycases,thereciprocaltariffs–pausedfor90days-disproportionatelyaffect

theseeconomies,without

significantlyreducingthe

©AdobeStock-AIGen

UnitedStatestradedeficitorcontributingtoitsadditionaltariffrevenuecollection.

Reciprocaltariffs-UnitedStateslegalbasis

InrecentmonthstheUnitedStatesExecutivehasimposedimporttariffsatorabove10percenttoimportsfromallovertheworld,justifiedbyexistingUnitedStateslaws.Someofthelegislationthathasservedasabasisisthefollowing:

TheInternationalEmergencyEconomicPowersAct

(IEEPA)

grantsthePresidentbroadauthoritytoregulatevariouseconomictransactionsfollowingadeclarationofanationalemergency.UnderIEEPA,theUnitedStatesExecutivecanimplementtariffsinresponsetoanationaleconomicemergency,inaccordancewithUnitedStatestradelaw.BasedonIEEPA,10percentacross-the-boardtariffsareinplacefrom5April2025.

Section232

oftheTradeExpansionActof1962allowsthePresidenttoimposetariffsonimportsdeemedathreattonationalsecurity.TarifflevelsaredeterminedafteraDepartmentofCommerceinvestigationiscompleted.Thisprovisionhasbeenusedtoimpose25percenttariffsonimportsofsteelandaluminumintotheUnitedStates.

Section301

oftheTradeActof1974grantstheExecutivetheauthoritytoenforcetradeagreements,solvetradeconflicts,andincreaseaccesstoforeignmarketsforUnitedStatesgoodsandservices.ItisthemainlegislationtheUnitedStatesusestoimposetradesanctionsoncountriesthat“violatetradeagreementsorengageinunfairtradepractices.”

©AdobeStock-nunoi

Section604oftheTradeActof1974enablestheExecutivetoimposedutiesorrestrictionsonimports.Thissectionhasbeenusedtoimplement“reciprocaltariffs”ontradingpartners.

TimelineofimplementationofnewU.S.trademeasures

January20,2025:AmericaFirstTradePolicy

TheUnitedStatesadministrationissueditsAmericaFirstTradePolicy(AFTP)whichprioritizesU.S.’economicinterests,nationalsecurity,andindustrialcompetitivenessbyreducingitstradedeficitsthroughhigherimportstariffs.

ThispolicycarriescostlyimplicationsforsmallandvulnerableeconomiesandLeastDevelopedCountriesintermsoftheirparticipationininternationaltrade,andaccesstotheUnitedStatesmarket.

FollowingtheAFTP,theUnitedStatesExecutivehasintroducednewtariffsacrosstheboard,aswellasonspecificsectors.

February13,2025:FairandReciprocalPlan

ThePresidentialMemorandumon“ReciprocalTradeandTariffs”introducedthe“FairandReciprocalPlan,”whichseekstodeterminetheequivalentofareciprocaltariffforeachtradingpartner.ThePlanoutlinedacountry-specificapproachto“reciprocaltariffs,”movingawayfromtheMostFavoredNation(MFN)tariffsystemundertheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO).

TheMemorandumcalledforareviewofthe“non-reciprocaltradingrelationships”withallUnitedStatestradingpartners.ThisreviewincludesexaminingtariffsthatUnitedStatesproductsfaceinforeignmarkets,non-tariffbarriers,suchassubsidiesandexchangerates,amongothers,andso-called“discriminatorytaxes.”

March12,2025:worldwide25percenttariffsonsteelandaluminum

TheUnitedStatesadministrationreinstatedSection232tariffsonallsteelimportsandincreasedthealuminumtarifffrom10to25percent,withnoexceptions.Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Canada,Japan,Mexico,theRepublicofKorea,theEuropeanUnion,Ukraine,andtheUnitedKingdomhadpreviouslyreceivedexemptionstotheSection232tariff.

Section232tariffsof25percentonsteelandaluminumwillnotbesubjecttoadditionalreciprocaltariffslaunchedonApril5,2025.

March24,2025:tariffsrelatedtoVenezuelanoil

UndertheIEEPAandtheSection301oftheUnitedStatesTradeActof1974,theExecutiveannounceda25percenttariffonimportsfromcountriesthatimportVenezuelanoil.TheUnitedStatesmayimposethis25percenttariffonallgoodsimportedfromanycountrythatimportsVenezuelanoil,eitherdirectlyorindirectly.ThesedutieswillbeinadditiontoanytariffsalreadyimposedunderIEEPA,Section232oftheTradeExpansionof1962,Section301oftheTradeActof1974,oranyotherrelevantauthority.

April2,2025:announcementofreciprocaltariffsworldwide

UndertheIEEPA,theNationalEmergenciesAct,Section301andSection604bothoftheTradeActof1974,theUnitedStatesdeclaredanationalemergencyduetothegrowinggoodstradedeficit,identifyingtherebalancingoftradeflowsasaprimarypolicygoal.Thisrebalancingwouldbeachieved“byimposinganadditionaladvaloremdutyonallimportsfromalltradingpartners.”

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TheExecutiveOrderincludesauniqueexceptionforarticlesthatcontainatleast20percentUnitedStatescontentbyvalue,whichisdefinedas:“thevalueofanarticleattributabletocomponentsproducedentirely,orsubstantiallytransformedintheUnitedStates.”Ifanarticlecontains20percentormoreUnitedStatescontent,reciprocaltariffswillonlyapplytothenon-UnitedStatescontent.UnitedStatesCustomsandBorderProtection(CBP)willcollectinformationtoverifytheUnitedStatescontentvalueofimportedarticlesandifagoodissubstantiallyfinishedintheUnitedStates.

ThepolicydoesnotprovideanenddateforthetariffsimposedunderthisExecutiveOrder.AdditionaltariffswillremaininplaceuntiltheUnitedStatesadministrationdecidesthat“thethreatposedbythetradedeficitandunderlyingnonreciprocaltreatmenthasbeensatisfied,resolved,ormitigated.”TheUnitedStatesadministrationmayadjustthetariffratesdependingonactionstakenbyforeigngovernments,openingthedoortobilateralnegotiationswithtradingpartners.Ifthepolicyis“noteffective”includinginreducingthe“overalltradedeficit”,theExecutivemaytakeadditionalmeasures.

●bApril3,2025:automobilesandautoparts

Allautomobilesandautoparts(startingMay3,2025)aresubjectto25percentdutiesbasedonSection232

(ProclamationMarch10908of26,2025AdjustingImportsofAutomobilesand

AutomobilePartsUnitedIntotheStates

).

ForautomobilesfromMexicoandCanada,theUnitedStatescontentwillbedutyfree,andthatvaluewillbedeductedfromthe25percenttarifftobepaid.Therefore,autosfromCanadaandMexicomayfaceareducedimportdutydependingonthecontentofUnitedStatesoriginatingparts.

April5,2025:additional10percentreciprocaltariffsbecomeeffective

A10percentadditionaladvaloremdutytoUnitedStatesimportsisappliedacrosstheboard,exceptfortheproductsincludedin

AnnexII

oftheApril2,2025,ExecutiveOrder.

April9,2025:additionalspecific-countrytariffsbecomeeffective

Additionalimportdutieson57tradingpartnerslistedin

Annex

IoftheApril2,2025,ExecutiveOrder

(RegulatingaReciprocalTariffRectifyTradePracticesContributeImportswithtothatto

LargePersistentAnnualUnitedStatesGoodsTradeDeficitsand)

becameeffectiveonApril9,2025.Theseadditionaltariffsrangedfrom11percentforCameroonto50percentforLesotho.PresidentTrumpannounceda“90-daypause,andasubstantiallyloweredReciprocalTariffduringthisperiod,of10percent,alsoeffectiveimmediately.”ThisperiodgoesfromApril9,2025toJuly8,2025.

The“reciprocaltariffs”definedforeachoneofthe57tradingpartnerswereestimatedbydividingtheUnitedStatestradedeficitwitheachpartner,bythetotalUnitedStatesimportsfromsuchpartner,andthendividingtheresultbytwo.Thesetariffsarebasedonthe2024UStradeingoodsdeficit.ThetariffratesimposedoneachUnitedStatestradingpartnerdonotconsiderthebalanceoftradeinservices.

ForCanadaandMexico,importsthatcomplywiththeUSMCArulesoforigincontinuetoenjoydutyfreetreatment.ForgoodsthatdonotcomplywithUSMCArulesoforigin,a25percenttariffwillapply,inlinewithIEEPA.IftheIEEPArelatedtariffsarelifted,non-USMCAproductsfromCanadaandMexicowillfacea12percentreciprocaltariff.

EnergyproductsfromCanadawillfacea10percentimportduty.

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AnnexII

introducedalistofproductsthatareexemptfromreciprocaltariffssuchasminerals,coal,oil,pharmaceuticals,semiconductors,andlumber,although,inthefuture,sector-specifictariffsmaystillbeappliedtothem.

TimelineoftariffsappliedtoUnitedStatesimportsfromChina

UsingtheIEEPA,theUnitedStatesimposedtariffsonChinawhichaddedtothoseinplacesince2018underSection301.

February4,2025

Additional10percenttariffstoappliedtariff

March4,2025

Additional10percenttariffs

April9,2025

Additional34percenttariffs+50percenttariffs

April9,2025

Determinedatariff

rateof

125percent

TimelineofUnitedStatestrademeasuresbasedonSection232

investigations:sectoralinvestigations

TheUnitedStatesExecutivehasrequestedthelaunchingofnewSection232investigations.

b

Timber,Lumberandtheirderivativeproducts

.OnMarch1,2025,thePresidentsignedanExecutiveOrderdirectingtheU.S.DepartmentofCommercetoinvestigatetheimpactofimportsoftimber,lumber,andtheirderivativeproductsonnationalsecurityunderSection

232oftheTradeExpansionActof1962.Followingthisorder,theSecretaryofCommerceinitiatedaninvestigationintoimportsoftheseproducts.ThereportisscheduledforsubmissiononNovember2,2025.

b

Copper

.OnFebruary25,2025,theSecretaryofCommercestartedaninvestigationonimportsofcopper.Theinvestigationcanlastupto270days.ThereportisdueonNovember22,2025.

Inthefuture,newinvestigationscoveringpharmaceuticalsandsemiconductorscouldbesubjecttoaSection232investigation.

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ReciprocalTariffsapplytoUnitedStates14FTAswith20countries

TheUnitedStateshasinplace14freetradeagreements(FTA)with20countries.Despitepreferentialdutytreatmentestablishedinthoseagreements,UnitedStatestradingpartnersnowface10percentimportduties,exceptfortheproductsexemptedintheApril2,2025,ExecutiveOrder.Likewise,USMCAtradingpartners-CanadaandMexico-receivedifferenttreatmentandtheirexportswillnotbesubjecttothe10percenttariffgeneralrule.

TariffasofApril9,2025Pausedfor90days

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

FTApartner

TariffasofApril5,2025

Australia

Bahrain

Chile

Colombia

CostaRica

DominicanRepublic

Guatemala

Honduras

Israel

Jordan

Morocco

Nicaragua

Oman

Panama

Perú

ElSalvador

Singapore

RepublicofKorea

17%

20%

19%

26%

Source:TheWhiteHouse.

Annex-I.pdf

Unilateralpreferenceschemes:AfricaGrowthOpportunityAct,AGOA

BeneficiariesofUnitedStatesunilateralpreferences,suchastheAfricaGrowthOpportunityAct(AGOA)arenotexemptfromreciprocitytariffs,meaningimportsfromthesecountriesarenowsubjecttoadditional10%tariffsacrosstheboard,exceptfortheexemptionscontainedinAnnex

II.Moreover,untiltheywerepausedon9April,reciprocaltariffs,oftenconsiderablyabove10percentwouldalsohaveappliedtoAGOAbeneficiaries.

6

Excludingthepoorestandsmallesteconomiesfromreciprocaltariffs

wouldhaveminimalimpacton

UnitedStatestradepolicyobjectives

SmallandLeastDevelopedCountriesrepresentaverysmallshareoftheUnitedStatestradedeficit

ThecontributiontotheUnitedStatestradedeficitfromsmallandLeastDevelopedCountriesincludedinthe57tradingpartnerslistedinAnnexIismarginal.Forinstance,28ofthesetradingpartnerseachcontributelessthan0.1percentofthetotalUnitedStatesdeficit.However,imposing“reciprocaltariffs”onthemwilldisproportionatelyaffecttheirabilitytoexporttotheU.S.market.

Table1

CountriesinAnnexIwithacontributionbelow0.1percentofUnitedStatestradedeficit

Country

Contributionto

UnitedStatesdeficit

Reciprocaltariff(90-daypause)

Country

Contributionto

UnitedStatesdeficit

Reciprocaltariff(90-daypause)

Angola0.095%32%NorthMacedonia0.009%33%

Libya

0.072%

31%

Namibia

0.009%

21%

LaoPeople's

DemocraticRepublic

0.063%

48%

Moldova

0.007%

31%

Madagascar

0.054%

47%

●Democratic

RepublicoftheCongo

0.006%

11%

Tunisia

0.050%

28%

Mozambique

0.005%

16%

Serbia

0.048%

38%

Cameroon

0.005%

12%

Myanmar

0.047%

45%

Zambia

0.004%

17%

bCôted'Ivoire

0.035%

21%

EquatorialGuinea

0.003%

13%

Botswana

0.024%

38%

Zimbabwe

0.002%

18%

Fiji

0.019%

32%

(Chad

0.002%

13%

Lesotho

0.019%

50%

Malawi

0.001%

18%

Mauritius

0.015%

40%

SyrianArabRepublic

0.001%

41%

BosniaandHerzegovina

0.010%

36%

Vanuatu

0.001%

23%

BruneiDarussalam0.009%24%Nauru0.000%30%

Source:UNCTADcalculationsbasedonUnitedStatesnationalstatistics.

Note:basedon2024data.

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SomeU.S.tradingpartnersconcernedbyreciprocaltariffsconstitutenegligiblepotentialexportmarketsfortheUnitedStates

SometradingpartnerslistedinAnnexIareverysmalland/oreconomicallypoorwithverylowpurchasingpower.Asaresult,theyofferlimitedornoexportmarketopportunitiesfortheUnitedStates.TradeconcessionsfromthesepartnerswouldmeanlittletotheUnitedStates,whilepotentiallyreducingtheirownrevenuecollection.Forinstance,AnnexIincludes11ofthe44tradingpartnersclassifiedbytheUnitedNationsas“LeastDevelopedCountries”1,manyofwhichrelyontariffsfordomesticrevenuecollection.

Table2

LDCsfacinghigherreciprocaltariffsofferlittleexportprospecttoUnitedStates

Country

GDP

per

capita

(US$)

United

States

exports

(US$

million)

Asa%

ofU.S.

exportsCountry

GDP

per

capita

(US$)

United

States

exports

(US$

million)

Asa%

ofU.S.

exports

Madagascar

509

53

0.00%

Myanmar

1,147

77

0.00%

Malawi

598

27

0.00%

●LaoPeople's

DemocraticRepublic

1,958

40

0.00%

Mozambique

623

150

0.01%

.Cambodia

2,458

322

0.02%

Democratic

RepublicoftheCongo

655

253

0.01%

●Bangladesh

2,464

2,214

0.11%

(Chad

913

60

0.00%

Angola

2,464

682

0.03%

Lesotho91630.00%

Source:UNCTADcalculationsbasedonUnitedStatesnationalstatistics.

Note:basedon2024data.

1

UNlistofleastdevelopedcountries|UNTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD).

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MosttradingpartnersfacingreciprocaltariffswouldgenerateonlyminimaladditionalrevenuefortheUnitedStates,evenifUnitedStatesimportslevelsremainunchanged.

“Reciprocaltariffs”of10%inplacesinceApril5,2025,mayreducedemandformanyimportedgoodsasaresultofhigherprices.However,evenifaftertheintroductionoftariffs,importlevelsweretoremainunchangedat2024levels,theadditionaltariffrevenuecollectedfrompoorerandsmallereconomieswouldbeminimalcomparedtocurrentcustomsdutyrevenues.

Table3

PotentialincreaseinUnitedStatesrevenuesfromreciprocaltariffs,examplesforselectedcountries

Economy

Potentialcustomduties(US$million)

Asapercentage

ofUnitedStates

totalcustomduties

in2024Economy

Potentialcustomduties(US$million)

Asapercentage

ofUnitedStates

totalcustomduties

in2024

Dereicolp'blic3750.45%oVenezuela410.05%

Tunisia3130.38%Moldova410.05%

Serbia3060.37%Namibia400.05%

Myanmar2940.35%Angola380.05%

Madagascar2900.35%Mozambique260.03%

Côted'Ivoire1740.21%Zambia240.03%

Botswana1540.19%Iraq180.02%

Algeria1260.15%Zimbabwe120.01%

Cameroon90.01%

Lesotho1190.14%

Mauritius

93

0.11%

Malawi70.01%

Kazakhstan840.10%RepiinArab40.01%

Fiji810.10%Vanuatu30.00%

Herii620.08%ReplfriCongo20.00%

()Nigeria580.07%导Nauru10.00%

NorthMacedonia570.07%EquatorialGuinea10.00%

Guyana490.06%Libya10.00%

BruneiDarussalam470.06%Chad10.00%

Source:UNCTADcalculationsbasedonUnitedStatesnationalstatistics.

Note:basedon2024data.

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For36ofthe57tradingpartnerslistedinAnnexI,thenewspecific“reciprocaltariffs”wouldgeneratelessthan1percentofUnitedStatescurrenttariffrevenues.Moreover,AnnexIIoftheExecutiveOrderincludesgoodsthatareexcludedfromtariffs,andthereforewouldnotproduceanyrevenuesfortheUnitedStates.Forinstance,thereciprocaltariffswouldproduceverylittlerevenuesfrommajoroilexporters,suchasGuyanaandNigeria,asoilisexemptedforanyadditionaltariffsunderAnnexII.Similarly,forseveralcountriesthatprimarilyexportmineralproducts—oranyotherproductlistedinAnnexII—theeffectofthe