英文【Abundance360】2025-2035年人形机器人发展趋势报告（英文版）

2025-2035METATRENDREPORT

MeettheTop16HumanoidRobotsShapingtheDecadeAhead,andtheirImpactonIndustries,SocietyandourEconomy

“Wewillhave10BillionHumanoidRobotsonEarthby2040.”

–ElonMusk

©PHDVentures,Inc,2025,All-rightsreserved./\

BroughttoyoubyAbundance360ABUNDANCE360

TABLEOFCONTENTS

LeadershipThoughts1

HumanoidRoboticsDashboard2

OpeningThoughts3

7KeyTakeawaysonHumanoidRobots4

RobotsThatShapedourVisionoftheFuture5

HumanoidRobots:HistoricalContext6

EnablingTechnologies:ThePerfectStormofInnovation8

EnablingMarketConditions11

EnablingAffordability14

FirstPrinciplesThinking&HumanoidRobotics16

MarketSize:HowBigCanItGet?19

16MajorPlayers22

5MarketLeadersTesla(Optimus)23

FigureAI(Figure02)26

AgilityRobotics(Digit)29

BostonDynamics(Atlas)31

Unitree(H1,G1)33

11Up-and-Comers1XTechnologies(NEO)35

Agibot(YuanzhengA2)36

Apptronik(Apollo)37

BeijingHRIC(Tiangong)38

EngineAI(SE01)39

EngineeredArts(Ameca)40

FourierIntelligence(GR-2)41

Kepler(ForerunnerK2)42

RobotEra(Star1)43

SanctuaryAI(Phoenix)44

Xpeng45

InvestmentClimate&Opportunities46

MajorImplications:Jobs&Abundance47

HowtoKeepUp,SurviveandThrive50

LEADERSHIPTHOUGHTS

“Ifyou'vegotasentienthumanoidrobotthatisabletonavigaterealityanddotasksatrequest,thereisnomeaningfullimittothesizeoftheeconomy.”

—ElonMusk,CEO,Tesla

“Weareinthehuman-laborbusiness,andtoday50%ofGlobalDomesticProduct(GDP)ispayinghumanstodoworkeveryday,inotherwordshumanlabor.Thatamountstoamarketplaceof$40trillionayear.It's10

timesbiggerthanalloftransportationcombined.”

—BrettAdcock,CEO,FigureAI

“Humanoidrobotswillbeascommonascarsaretoday.

100yearsfromnow,it’sveryclear,we’llhavehumanoidrobotseverywhere.Theywilllikelybethelargestvolumemechanicalsystemtheworldmakes.”

—JensenHuang,CEO,NVIDIA

“By2040therecouldbeabillionbipedalrobotsdoingawiderangeoftasks,freeinghumansfromtheslaveryofthebottom50%ofreallyundesirablejobslikeassemblylineandfarmworkers.Thiscouldbealargerindustrythantheautoindustry.”

—VinodKhosla,KhoslaVentures

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DASHBOARD

POTENTIALMARKETSIZETOP5INDUSTRIESIMPACTED

$38billion

GoldmanSachs

$3trillion

MacquarieGroup

$24trillion

ArkInvest

UNITCOSTTODAY

$250,000

MorganStanley

UNITCOSTPREDICTED

$20,000

ElonMusk

•Agriculture

•Construction

•Eldercare

•Logistics

•Manufacturing

TOP5PLAYERSIN2025

•FigureAI

•TeslaOptimus

•AgilityRobotics

•BostonDynamics

•Unitree

OPENINGTHOUGHTS

IwascompelledtocreatethisMetatrendreportbecausethecomingwaveofhumanoidrobotswillhaveavastimpactonsocietythatiswidelyunderappreciated.Itwilltransformourlivesathomeandwork.

HowMany?:InmyconversationswithElonMusk,BrettAdcock,CathieWood,andVinodKhosla,thepredictionsonhowmanyhumanoidrobotswewillhaveworkingalongsideusby2040isshockingatbest.Atthelowestbound,thenumberis1billion(whichismorethanthenumberofautomobilesonEarth)andattheupperbound,proclaimedbyMuskandAdcock,thenumberwillexceed10billion.

HowMuch?:Butequallyimpressiveasthesheernumberofrobotsisthepricepoint,predictedtobebetween$20,000to$30,000whichtranslatestoaleasedcostontheorderof$300permonth,forarobothelperworking24hoursperday,7daysperweek.

WhyNow?:Thefirstquestiontoaskiswhynow?Whyareweseeingsuchanexplosionofactivityinthehumanoidrobotfieldnow?Beyondanysingletechnicaladvancement,theconvergenceof5majortechnologicalareasaresuper-chargingthisfield:multimodalgenerativeAI,high-torqueactuators,increasedcomputepower,enhancedbatterylife,camerasandtactilesensors.This,incombinationwithAIvoicerecognition,istransformative:AsBrettAdcockrecentlytoldme,"Wecanliterallytalktoourrobotanditcanimplementthetasksyourequest--theend-stateforthisisyoureallywantthedefaultUItobespeech."

ImpactonJobs:Naturally,theprospectofbillionsofhumanoidrobotsraisesquestionsabouttheirimpactonjobsandsociety.AccordingtoAdcock:"Ourgoalistoreallybeabletodoalotofthejobsthatarenotdesirablebyhumans.”AsofQ32024,therearenearly8millionUSjobopenings—jobsthatpeoplejustdon'twanttodo.

CreatingaFutureofAbundance:AsMuskhascommentedregardingafutureinvolvinghumanoidrobots:“Thismeansafutureofabundance,afuturewherethereisnopoverty,wherepeople,youcanhavewhateveryouwant,intermsofproductsandservices.Itreallyisafundamentaltransformationofcivilizationasweknowit.”Adcockechoesthisvision,“YoucanbasicallycreateaworldwheregoodsandservicespricesaretrendingtozerointhelimitandGDPspikestoinfinity...Youbasicallycanrequestanythingyouwouldwantanditwouldberelativelyaffordableforeverybodyintheworld."

IhopeyouenjoythisMetatrendreport,andarepreparingforafutureofAbundance(andanabundanceofrobots).

Bestwishes,

PeterH.Diamandis,MD

Founder,Singularity,Abundance360,XPRIZE

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7KEYTAKEAWAYSONHUMANOIDROBOTS

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MarketExplosion:Thehumanoidrobotsmarketispoisedforexponentialgrowth,withprojectionsrangingfrom$38billionby2035(GoldmanSachs)toastaggering$24trillion(ArkInvest).IntheU.S.alone,atthelower-bound,MorganStanleyesti-mates63millionhumanoidrobotscouldbedeployedby2050,potentiallyaffecting75%ofoccupationsand40%ofemploy-ees.Ontheupperbounds,BrettAdcockandElonMuskpredictasmanyas1billionto10billionhumanoidrobotsby2040.

LaborShortageSolution:Humanoidrobotsareemergingasacriticalsolutiontogloballaborshortages,particularlyinelderlycare,manufacturing,anddangerousjobs.By2030,theU.S.isprojectedtohavea25%"dependencyratio"ofpeopleover70,driv-ingdemandforroboticassistanceinhealth-careandsocialcare.InChinaandotherpartsofAsiaandEurope,anagingpopulationandlowerbirthratesmakehumanoidroboticscriticalfortheireconomy.

InvestmentOpportunities:Thehuman-oidrobotsectorisattractingsignificantinvestment,exemplifiedbyFigureAI'srecent$675millionfundingroundata$2.6billionvaluation.MorganStanley's"Humanoid66"listprovidesaroadmapforinvestorsinterestedinbothroboticsdevelopersandpotentialbeneficiariesacrossvariousindustries.

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TechnologicalConvergence:TherapidadvancementofhumanoidrobotsisdrivenbyconvergingbreakthroughsinAI,hardwarecomponents(actua-tors,sensors),andbatterytechnology.MultimodalgenerativeAIinparticularisenhancingrobots'adaptabilityanddecision-makingcapabilities,whilehardwarecostsareplummeting.

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CostReductionTrends:Thecostofhumanoidrobotsisplummetingrap-idly,withhigh-endmodelsdroppingfrom$250,000to$150,000injustoneyear:a40%decreasecomparedtotheexpected15-20%annualdecline.Ambitioustargets,suchasTesla'sgoalofa$20,000sellingpriceforitsOpti-musrobot,suggestmassadoptionwillbecomefeasibleacrossvarioussectors.

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BroadSocietalImpact:Thewidespreadadoptionofhumanoidrobotshasthepotentialtousherinaneraofunprece-dentedabundance,dramaticallyreduc-ingthecostofgoodsandserviceswhilefreeinghumanstofocusoncreativeandfulfillingpursuits.Thistransformationcouldreshapeourconceptofworkandfundamentallyalterthestructureofoureconomyandsociety.

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JobDisruption:ThespeedatwhichmultimodalgenerativeAIandhumanoidrobotdevel-opmentisprogressing,pairedwiththelackofpublicdiscourseonthissubject,indicatesthattherewillbesignificantjobdisruptionandsocietalupheaval.Mechanismstoaddresstheseconcernssuchasuniversalbasicincome(UBI),willneedtobeaddressed.SomehaveproposedfundingsuchUBIprogramsbytaxingcompanieswhichutilize“robotsandAIs”todisplacepreviouslyhuman-filledjobs.

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THEROBOTSTHATSHAPEDOUR

VISIONOFTHEFUTURE

1

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Overthecourseofthepast100years,anumberoficonicrobotshaveshapedourvisionofwhatarobotshouldlooklike,andhowitshouldbehave.Let’stakealookatthetopstarsfromfilmandTV:

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5

6

7

8

9

10

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12

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Maria

(Metropolis,1927)

Robby

(ForbiddenPlanet,1956)

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TheRobot

(LostinSpace,1965)

HAL9000

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(2001:ASpaceOdyssey,1968)

Gort

(TheDaytheEarthStoodStill,1951)

R2-D2andC-3PO

(StarWars,1977)

AshandBishop

(AlienSeries,1979and1986)

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RoyBatty

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(BladeRunner,1982)

Johnny5

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(ShortCircuit,1986)

Data

(StarTrek:TheNextGeneration,1987)

T-800

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(TheTerminator,1984and1991)

Sonny

(I,Robot,2004)

Ava

(ExMachina,2014)

DoloresandMaeve

(Westworld,2016)

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HUMANOIDROBOTS:HISTORICALCONTEXT

Thedreamofhumanoidrobotshastantalizedourimaginationsfordecades,promisingafuturewheremechanicalhelpersseamlesslyintegrateintoourdailylives.Thisvision,onceconfinedtotherealmofsciencefiction,isnowrapidlymaterializingbeforeoureyes.Westandontheprecipiceofatechnologicalrevolutionthatwillfundamentallyreshapeourworld,ourwork,andourunderstandingofwhatitmeanstobehuman.

Inthe1960s,SiliconValley-basedSRIInternationalunveiled"Shakey,"apioneeringmobilerobotthat,despiteitsaptlychosenname,representedaquantumleapinrobotics.Resemblingatalltowerofelectronicsandcamerasperchedatopwheels,Shakeywasthefirstofitskindtoperceiveandreasonaboutitssurroundings.LifeMagazinehaileditasthe"firstelectronicperson"in1970,aprescienttitleforamachinethatwouldpavethewayforgenerationsofincreasinglysophisticatedrobots.

HISTORICALCONTEXT

Honda'sASIMOrobotdevelopment(lefttoright)from1986totoday.

FastforwardtoOctober2000,whenHonda'scharmingASIMOcapturedtheworld'simagination.Cladinwhatlookedlikeateenager'simpressionofa1950sastronautsuit,ASIMObecameaninternationalcelebrity.ThischarismaticrobotrangtheopeningbellattheNewYorkStockExchange,conductedtheDetroitSymphonyOrchestra,andevenwalkedtheredcarpetatmultiplemoviepremieres.ThepinnacleofASIMO'spublicappearancescameinApril2014,duringPresidentObama'svisittoJapan.Withimpeccablepoliteness,ASIMOgreetedthePresidentinEnglish:"Mr.President,IamASIMO,ahumanoidrobot.Itisapleasuretomeetyou."Therobotthenproceededtoshowcaseitsrepertoireofimpressivemoves,includingrunning,kickingaball,andjumping.

Photocredit:PaulSancya/AP

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Yet,foralltheirgroundbreakingachievements,theseearlyitera-tionsofhumanoidrobotsremainedexpensivecuriosities,moresuit-edtoheadlinesthanpracticalap-plications.It'sonlynow,drivenbytechnologicalconvergence,thatagenerationofusefulandafford-ablerobotsarewithinourgrasp.

ENABLINGTECHNOLOGIES:THEPERFECTSTORMOFINNOVATION

Therapidadvancementofhumanoidrobotsisn'ttheresultofasingletechnologicalleap,butratheraremarkableconvergenceofmultipleinnovationsacrossvariousfields.

AIAdvancesasaMarketDriver:Attheheartofthisrevolutionliestheextraordinaryprogressinmultimodal,generativeartificialintelligence–forexampleOpenAIGPT-4o’sabilitytosee,listen,andspeak.

Today’shumanoidrobotsareequippedwithAI-enhancedvisionsystems,enablingactivitieslikeselecting,sortingandunderstanding.Usingreinforcementlearning,roboticAIsystemscanautonomouslyrefinetheiroperationsforuseinfactoriesandhomes,enablingself-improvingdecision-makingalgorithms,optimizingtheiractions.

Tesla'sin-houseAIsupercomputer

AccordingtoarecentMorganStanleyreport,"ThegrowthinAIdrasticallyincreasesthepotentialforhumanoidstomanagecomplexandnuancedscenariosfrequentlyencounteredinthehumanworkplace,andalsoincreasestherobots'abilitytoutilizethemorecomplexarrangementsofsensors/vision/actuatorsneededtomakehumanoidscommerciallyviable."

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"ThegrowthinAIdrasticallyincreasesthepotential

forhumanoidstomanagecomplexandnuanced

scenariosfrequentlyencounteredinthehumanworkplace"

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ENABLINGTECHNOLOGIES

HardwareAdvances–ThePhysicalFoundationofProgress:WhileAIprovidesthe"brain"forhumanoidrobots,equallycrucialaretheadvancesinhardwarethatformtheir"body."Inrecentyears,we'veseenremarkableprogressinactuators,sensors,andotherphysicalcomponentsthatareessentialforcreatingrobotsthatcanmoveandinteractwiththeworldinhuman-likeways.

MorganStanley'sresearchhighlightshow"developmentstothephysicalhumanoid'body'(actuators,sensors,etc.),haveandshouldcontinuetoenableincreasinglycomplexhumanoiddesigns."Newrefinementsintechnologiessuchasplanetary-rollerscrews,corelessmotors,harmonicreducers,andsix-axisforcesensorshavebecomecommonplaceinadvancedhumanoiddesigns.

AstrikingexampleofthisprogresscanbeseeninLiDAR(LightDetectionandRanging)sensors.Adecadeago,aLiDARunitcostabout$100,000andwasthesizeofacoffeecan.Today,thankstoinnovationsdrivenbytheautomotiveindustry,thesecrucialsensorshaveshrunk1000-foldinsizeand100-foldincost.CompanieslikeLuminararenowsupplyingLiDARunitstocarmakersforjust$1,000,withagoalofreaching$500inthenextfewyears.Thisdramaticreductioninsizeandcostofessentialcomponentsisakeyfactorinmakinghumanoidrobotseconomicallyviable.

BatteryStorageTechnology–PoweringtheRobotRevolution:Ashumanoidrobotsbecomemoresophisticated,withincreasedcomputingpoweranddexterity,theyinevitablyrequiremoreenergy.Today'smodernhumanoidsgenerallyhavebatterylivesof1-3hourswheninoperation.However,tomaketheserobotscommerciallyviable,we'llneedtoseesignificantlyhigheruptimes.

Fortunately,batterytechnologyisadvancingrapidly.AsnotedinMorganStanley'sreport"WillMoore'sLawApplytoBatteries?",newbatterydevelopmentsoverthepastdecadehavegradually

increasedenergydensitybyapproximately20%everytwoyears.Atthispace,wecouldseethecommercializationofsolid-statebatteries—potentiallythenextmajor

breakthroughforhumanoidbatterycapacity—by2028-30.

Interestingly,there'saclearoverlapbetweenbatteriesdesignedforelectricvehiclesandthoselikelytobeusedinhumanoids.Tesla'sOptimusrobot,forexample,utilizesbatterytechnology

fromthecompany'sautoandenergybusinesses,allowingittobeproducedusingTesla'sexistingsupplychainandinfrastructure.

averagebatterydensityincreaseeverytwoyears

20%

2030projectedcostperkWh

$80

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ENABLINGTECHNOLOGIES

Theeconomicsofbatterytechnologyareequallypromising.AccordingtoBloombergNEF'slatestanalysis,lithium-ionbatterypackpriceshavereachedarecordlowof$139/kWhin2023—a14%decreasefromthepreviousyear.Thistrajectoryisexpectedtocontinue,withpricesprojectedtoreach$80/kWhby2030,apricepointthatcoulddramaticallyimprovethecommercialviabilityofhumanoidrobots.

Beyondtraditionallithium-ionbatteries,theindustryisexploringpromisingalternatives.Solid-statebatteriesofferhigherenergydensityandenhancedsafetythroughtheeliminationofliquidelectrolytes,whilehydrogenfuelcellspresentthepossibilityofextendedoperationtimeswithoutfrequentrecharging.Theseadvances,combinedwithsophisticatedAI-poweredbatterymanagementsystemsandthermalregulation,arecreatingaclearpathwaytowardhumanoidrobotscapableoflonger,moreefficientoperation—acrucialfactorintheirwidespreadcommercialadoption.

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ENABLINGMARKETCONDITIONS

Whiletechnologicaladvanceshavemadehumanoidrobotspossible,it'sthepressingneedforlaborinvarioussectorsthat'sdrivingtheiradoption.

TheElderlyCareCrisis:Oneofthemostpressingchallengesfacingmanydevelopednationsisthegrowingneedforelderlycare.AreportfromMorganStanleypaintsastarkpicture:"By2030,theUnitedNations

forecastsaUSpopulationwith25people

agedover70forevery100peopleaged24-69tolookafterthem—a'dependencyratio'of25%.InJapan,itwillbetwiceasacute,with50peopleover70yearsoldper100peopletocareforthem."

Thisdemographicshiftisn'tlimitedtoafewcountries.WesternEurope'sdependencyratioisprojectedtobe35%bytheendofthedecade,whileChina's,currentlyat20%,isexpectedtodoubleby2050.Asthereportnotes,"Socialcareisarguablytheworld'slargestTAMbytheendofthecentury,butonethatsuffersfromrestrictivefundingcreatingalackofincentivizationtorecruitorre-skillworkers."

Inthiscontext,humanoidrobotsemergenotjustasatechnologicalmarvel,butasanincreasinglynecessarysolutionforaworldfacingimmenselongevitychallenges.

"By2030,theUnitedNationsforecastsaUSpopulation with25peopleagedover70forevery100peopleaged24-69tolookafterthem—a'dependencyratio'of25%."

40%

50%

DependencyratioinEuropeby2030

DependencyratioinChinaby2040

DependencyratioinJapanby2030

35%

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ENABLINGMARKETCONDITIONS

ManufacturingandDangerousJobs:Beyondelderlycare,othersectorsarealsograpplingwithsignificantlaborshortages.ArecentGoldmanSachsreporthighlightsthepotentialforhumanoidrobotsincarmanufacturinganddangerousjobslikedisasterrescueandnuclearreactorwork.Thereportprojectsthat"Assumingalaborsubstitutionrateof5-15%forcarmanufacturingaswellasdangerousjobslikedisasterrescueandnuclearreactorwork,thedemandforhumanoidrobotscanpotentiallyreach1.1millionto3.5millionunitsglobally."

Thisisn'tjustaboutreplacingworkers,butaboutfillingcrucialgapsinindustrieswherehumanlaborisbecomingscarceorwheretheworkitselfposessignificantriskstohumanhealthandsafety.Asthereportnotes,"Ina'blue-sky'scenario,whereinnovationunfoldsrapidlyanddemandsoars,GoldmanSachsResearchcanenvisionhumanoidrobotsbecomingthenext'must-have'device,notunlikesmartphonesorEVs.Suchrobotswouldbevitalformanufacturinganddangerouswork,buttheywouldalsohelpwithelderlycareandfillinforlaborshortagesinfactories."

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ENABLINGMARKETCONDITIONS

DemandfromChinaandJapan:ChinaandJapan,twooftheworld’smostrapidlyagingnations,faceanurgentneedforhumanoidrobotstofillthegrowinglaborgapandsupporttheireconomies.InJapan,morethan29%ofthepopulationisover65,afigureprojectedtoreach35%by2040.Similarly,China'sworking-agepopulationisdecliningatanunprecedentedrate,withitsbirthratedroppingtojust1.09birthsperwomanin2023,wellbelowthereplacementrateof2.1.By2050,China'selderlypopulationisexpectedtosurgeto366million,almost30%ofthecountry.Thisdemographiccrisiscreatesanimmensedemandforautomationinbothcountries.Currently,Japanleadstheworldinrobotdensity,with399industrialrobotsper10,000employeesin2022,yetlaborshortagespersistinhealthcare,manufacturing,andeldercare.TheChineseentrepreneurialcommunityisrespondingtoitschallengewithacompellingmenagerieofhumanoidrobots.

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ENABLINGAFFORDABILITY

FallingCosts:Thethirdkeydriverpropellingthehumanoidrobotmarketforwardistherapidlyfallingcostofproduction.Aswithmanytechnologicalrevolutions,theeconomicsofscaleandongoinginnovationsaremakingwhatwasonceprohibitivelyexpensiveincreasinglyaffordable.

Giventherelativelyearlystagesofbothhumanoidrobotdevelopmentandadoption,theestimatedcostsofbuildingahumanoidrobotvarywidely.Asa2024reportbyMorganStanleypointsout,"Perourestimates,buildinghumanoidrobotscouldrangefrom$10kto$300kdependinguponconfigurationanddownstreamapplication."

Toprovideaconcreteexample,thefirmconductedananalysisofwhatitcouldcosttobuildTesla'sOptimusGen-2humanoidrobotfromthegroundup.Theirfinding?"Perprimarycomponentsupplierpricequotesandproprietaryanalyses,weestimateTeslaOptimusGen2'scurrentBoMis$50-60kperunit(ex-software)."SeethebelowbreakdownofestimatedcostsoftheTesla’sGen-2humanoidrobotbymajorpart:

Shoulder

Head~US$2.1k

Battery~US$0.3k

Pack~0.5%oftotal

Elbow

~US$1.1k

~2.0%oftotal

Waist&Pelvis

~US$2.2k

~3.9%oftotal

Hands

Others

Thigh

~US$7.3k

~13.2%oftotal

Calf

~US$6.7k

~12.2%oftotal

~US$7.3k

~13.2%oftotal

~US$2.1k~3.8%oftotal

~US$2.6k~4.7%oftotal

~US$7.8k~14.2%oftotal

~US$9.5k~17.2%oftotal

~US$0.5k~0.9%oftotal

~3.8%oftotal

UpperArm

Forearm

Feet

Source:MorganStanleyResearchBluepaper“Humanoids:InvestmentImplicationsofEmbodiedAI”

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ENABLINGAFFORDABILITY

RapidCostReduction:However,thesecostsarefallingfasterthanmanyanticipated.AccordingtoaGoldmanSachsreport,"Therearesignsthatrobotcomponents,fromhigh-precisiongearstoactuators,couldalsocostlessthanpreviouslyexpected,leadingtofastercommercialization.Themanufacturingcostofhumanoidrobotshasdropped—fromarangethatranbetweenanestimated$50,000(forlower-endmodels)and$250,000(forstate-of-theartversions)perunitlastyear,toarangeofbetween$30,000and$150,000now.Whereouranalystshadexpectedadeclineof15-20%perannum,thecostdeclined40%."

Thisrapiddeclineincostsismakinghumanoidrobotsincreasinglyaccessibletoawiderrangeofindustriesandapplications.It'sworthnotingthatTeslaCEOElonMuskhassetanambitioustargetofa$20,000sellingpricefortheOptimusrobot.Whilethismightseemoptimistic,thecombinationofscaleproduction,AI-drivenR&Dacceleration,andtheutilizationofcost-effectivecomponentsfromChinacouldmakesuchapricepointachievableinthefuture.Inaddition,companiessuchasUnitreeannouncedapriceofUS$16,000fortheirG1robotinlate2023.

Source:ARKInvest

Ascostscontinuetofallandcapabilitiesrise,we'reapproachingatippingpointwherehumanoidrobotswillbecomenotjusttechnologicallyfeasible,buteconomicallycompellingforawiderangeofapplications.

Wearealreadypastthepointwhere“human

minimumwage”significantlyexceeds“thehourly

operatingcostofacapablehumanoidrobot.”

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FIRSTPRINCIPLESTHINKING

&HUMANOIDROBOTS

Whiletheconvergenceoftechnologies,laborshortages,andfallingcostsaredrivingthehumanoidroboticsmarketforward,truebreakthroughsoftencomefromchallengingourfundamentalassumptions.Let'sapplyfirstprinciplesthinkingtoenvisionhowwemightadvancethisindustryevenfurther.

Moonshotsarebornwhenwestripaway

preconceivednotionsandrebuildfromthe

groundupbyapplyingfirstprinciplesthinking.

Let'sapplythispowerfulapproachtothehumanoidroboticsindustry—afieldripeforinnovationandtransformation.

ManufacturingCosts:Attheircore,humanoidrobotsarecomposedofmechanicalcomponents(thebody)andartificialintelligence(thebrain).Thecostandperformanceoftheserobotshingeonthematerialsused,thedesignoftheircomponents,andtheintelligencethatdrivesthem.Typicallythehighestcostof

anylargecomplexsystemishumanlabor.

Intheout-yearswewillseehumanoidrobots,buildinghumanoidrobots,whichwillreducelabortonearzero,enablingamassiveandrapiddemonetization.

IntelligenceCosts:ThecostofdevelopingincreasinglycapablemultimodalgenerativeAIsystemsforuseinhumanoidrobotsisbeingbornbythelargehyperscalers

(Google,OpenAI,xAI,Anthropic,etc.)and

willbecontinuouslyportedtohumanoidrobotsatnoadditionalcost.HumanoidrobotintelligenceisridingonamassiveAIMetatrend.

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FIRSTPRINCIPLESTHINKING

InvestmentCapital:Thehumanlabormarketrepresents50%oftheUS$105trillionglobaldomesticproduct,orapproximatelyUS$50trillion.Increasingmarketdrivers(below)andthepotentialforsalesnumberinginthebillionsassuresthattheleadinghumanoidrobotcompanieswillhavenear-unlimitedaccesstocapitalinasimilarfashiontothetopAIcompanies.

MarketNeed:Amixofmarketfactorsaredrivingaperfectstormforhumanoidrobotinvestment,construction,andadoption.Theseinclude:

•Massivereductioninbirthrates:ReductioninbirthratewilldrivenationstoturntohumanoidrobotstofilljobsandmaintaintheirGDP.Theglobalfertilityratehasfallenfrom5childrenperwomanin1950to2.4in2020.In2