【世界经济论坛WEF】2025从冲击到战略构建面向未来30年的价值链白皮书

IncollaborationwithGlobal

FutureCouncilonAdvanced

ManufacturingandValueChains

FromShocktoStrategy:BuildingValueChainsfortheNext30Years

WHITEPAPERJUNE2025

Images:GettyImages

Contents

Foreword3

Executivesummary4

1Drivingforcesaffectingglobalvaluechains5

2Keypillarsoffuture-readyvaluechains8

3Strategiesshapingvaluechainsupto20309

3.1Integratedsustainability10

3.2End-to-endcollaboration11

3.3Technologyadoption12

4Valuechainscenarios:Envisioningthepathto204014

4.1Globalrelationsandtrade15

4.2Regulatorycomplexity17

4.3Consumerbehaviourandexpectations19

4.4Climatedisruption21

4.5Technologyevolution23

4.6Cybersecurity25

4.7Workforceandskills27

4.8Socialequity29Amid-centuryoutlook:2050,acalltoaction31Contributors32Endnotes34

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FromShocktoStrategy:BuildingValueChainsfortheNext30Years2

FromShocktoStrategy:BuildingValueChainsfortheNext30Years3

June2025

FromShocktoStrategy:

BuildingValueChainsfortheNext30Years

Foreword

JagjitSinghSrai

DirectorofResearch,

DepartmentofEngineering,UniversityofCambridge;

Head,CentreforInternationalManufacturing,Institutefor

Manufacturing;Co-Chair,

GlobalFutureCouncilon

AdvancedManufacturingandValueChains

Inthefaceofprofounduncertainty–whetherfromimmediategeopoliticaltensionsordecades-longclimatechallenges–industryprofessionalsare

experiencingafundamentalrewiringofglobal

valuechains.Oncealandscapedominatedbytheprinciplesofglobalization,industrynowfindsitselfshiftingtowardsstrategiesofregionalizationanddualsourcing.Asheadlineshighlightgeostrategiccompetitivemovesandregionalconflicts,threatsofcybersecurityandintensifyingclimateevents,decision-makersarenavigatinganincreasingly

complexoperationalenvironmentwherestrategicagilityandresiliencehavebecomenon-negotiablefoundationsofcompetitiveness.

Againstthisbackdrop,the

GlobalFutureCouncil

onAdvancedManufacturingandValueChains

,

acollaborativethinktankofindustryexperts,

academicleaders,civilsocietyrepresentativesandpublicofficials,hasdevelopedthiswhitepaper

toprovideinsightandstrategicguidanceacross

multipletimehorizons.Byexaminingpotentialvaluechainconfigurationsthrough2030,2040and2050,theCounciloffersmanufacturingandsupplychainexecutivesaframeworktoprepareforaprofoundlyuncertainfuture.

Itisourintentionthatthedrivingforcesand

scenariosoutlinedinthispapercanhelppublic-andprivate-sectorstakeholdersinformdecision-making

KivaAllgood

ManagingBoard,

WorldEconomicForum

processesandidentifyappropriatestrategies

andpoliciestoensurethatthemanufacturing

sectordeliversresponsiblegrowth.Our2030use

casesdemonstratepracticalstepsthatleading

companiesaretakingintheadoptionofemerging

technologies,whileour2040scenariosprovide

strategicframeworksforvaluechainreconfigurationthatbalanceresiliencewithcompetitiveadvantage.Ultimately,thevisionary2050perspectivethat

closesthisreporthighlightscriticalprioritiesfor

sustainableprogressandresiliencethatindustry

leaderscanusetoframelonger-termstrategicgoals.

Amidthisglobalrewiringandtransformationof

manufacturingandvaluechains,theCouncilhashighlightedthreeareasofgreatestuncertaintythatwillinfluencevaluechainconfigurations,namely

towhatextentwillsustainability,collaborationandtechnologydetermineourindustrialfuture.Our

insightsprovidestakeholderswithaframework

toexploreeightthematicareasandpotential

futurescenariosaffectingindustryandsocietyin

2030,2040and2050.TheCouncilhopesthis

whitepaperwillhelpstructurestrategicplanning

withgreaterclarityandensurethatfuturevalue

chainconfigurationsworkforallstakeholders–

developedanddevelopingcountries,corporationsofallsizesandsocietiesatlarge,creatingresilient,sustainableandequitableindustrialecosystemsfordecadestocome.

FromShocktoStrategy:BuildingValueChainsfortheNext30Years4

Executivesummary

Inlightoftherewiringofglobalvaluechains,thispaperpresentsstrategicscenariosforaresilientfuture.

Uncertainty–drivenbytheprofoundshocksof

disruptivegeopolitical,climateandtechnological

events–ispushingindustrytorethinkthe

configurationofglobalvaluechains.Justadecadeago,manufacturerschampionedtheprinciplesof

globalization,buttoday90%ofindustryisshifting

towardsregionalization.1Inthefaceofnews

headlinesaboutnationalelections,cyberattacks

andweatherevents,decision-makersmustnavigateanincreasinglycomplexlandscapewherestrategicagility,resilienceandproactiveriskmanagementareessentialtoremaincompetitive.

Asglobalvaluechainsstarttorewire,the

Global

FutureCouncilonAdvancedManufacturingand

ValueChains

,athinktankcomprisingindustry

experts,leadingacademics,civilsocietyandpublicofficials,hassetouttocreatepotentialscenariostoguidemanufacturers’decision-makingprocesses.Thenewoperatingenvironmentwillbeshaped

byeightdrivingforces,asidentifiedbytheGlobalFutureCouncil:

–Globalrelationsandtrade

–Regulatorycomplexity

–Consumerexpectationsandbehaviour

–Climatedisruption

–Technologyevolution

–Cybersecurity

–Workforceandskills

–Socialequity

Takingthesepowerfulforcesshapingthefuture

ofvaluechainsintoaccount,amidanongoing

rewiring,thiswhitepaperoutlinespotential

scenariosfortheconfigurationofglobalvalue

chainsin2030,2040and2050.Drawingon

surveydata,foresightworkshopsandusecases,thescenariospresentedillustratehypothetical

future-readyvaluechainsdesignedtoaddress

eachdrivingforce.Theselectedtimehorizons

capturedifferentstagesofuncertainty,servingasaroadmapforthegradualreconfigurationofvaluechainsasfollows:

–2030representsthenearterm,withleading

best-in-classexamplesactingasananchoringpointinhowindustryleadersarepreparing

theirorganizations.Thecouncilrecognizes

thatmanufacturersaretakingstrategicactioninpreparationfor2030,asevidencedthroughusecases.Thesebaselineactionsaimto

ground2040and2050strategiesinachievableprogress,ensuringfuturegoalsareboth

ambitiousandachievable(Section3).

–2040isthefocusofthisreport:scenario-

planningmethodologyexplorespotential

configurationsoffuture-readyvaluechainsandrepresentsasteppingstonealongthejourneyto2050(Section4).

–2050isavisionarytimelinethatallows

stakeholderstostepoutofanincremental

mindsetandconsiderambitiousalternatives–anorthstar–whiletakingintoaccountthelong-termdecisionsnecessaryinthecomingyearstoreachthesegoals(Section5).

Thescenariosinthispaperserveasstrategictoolsformanufacturingandsupplychainexecutives

aswellaspolicy-makers,equippingthemwith

foresighttohelpthemthinkthroughandprepareforanincreasinglycomplexanduncertainfuture.By

envisioningdifferentconfigurationsofglobalvaluechains,thisworkenablesleaderstotakeproactivestepstowardslong-termresilience.

For2030,thereportshowcasesactionable

referencesforfuturepreparednessthrough

usecasesofcompaniesthathavesuccessfully

embracedintegratedsustainability,end-to-end

collaborationandtechnologyadoption.Beyond

servingasaframeworkforexaminingfuture

possibilities,thisreportisacalltoaction–drawingontheGlobalFutureCouncil’sthoughtleadershiptoidentifycriticalareasforbuildinglong-term

resilienceandofferingactionableguidanceonthepotentialvaluechainconfigurationsthatwilldrivecompetitivenessandgrowththrough2040.The

council’slong-term2050visionunderscoresthe

drivingforcesthatleadersshouldprioritizetodrivesustainableprogressandestablishresilienceinthedecadesahead.

FromShocktoStrategy:BuildingValueChainsfortheNext30Years5

1

Drivingforcesaffectingglobalvaluechains

Manufacturersfaceafuturedefinedbyuncertaintyanddisruption–transformingtheirvaluechainsisanecessity.

Withglobalvaluechainssubjecttochange,the

GlobalFutureCouncilonAdvancedManufacturing

andValueChains

recognizedthatmanufacturers

areoperatinginalandscapeofshifting

uncertainties–drivingtheurgencyoftransformingandfuture-proofingvaluechains.Inresponse,thecouncilidentifiedthemaindrivingforcesthatwill

shapemanufacturingandoperationsthrough2050.Drawingonoperationalexpertise,insightsfrom

theGlobalFutureCouncilNetworkandanalysisoftheongoingdisruptioncurrentlyaffectingindustry,thecounciloutlinedeightdrivingforcesthatwill

continuetoshapetheongoingrewiringofglobalvaluechains.

Theseeightdrivingforcesserveasacommon

denominator,affectingtheactionsacrossthree

distincttimehorizons–near-termadaptationsby2030,mid-rangestructuralshiftsby2040and

longer-termsystemictransformationsby2050.

Eachdrivingforce,andassociateduncertainties

selectedbymorethan140seniorexpertsin

workshops,hashelpedthecouncilinshaping

insightsfornavigatingthegradualbutfundamentalreconfigurationofglobalvaluechainsalreadyunderway.Theeightdrivingforces,includenotable

uncertaintiesandtrends,areasfollows(seealsoFigure1):

1Globalrelationsandtrade

Theglobaleconomiclandscapeisexperiencing

aprofoundreconfiguration,withregionalization

emergingasacriticalstrategicresponsetomountinguncertainties.Tradeandinvestmentrestrictions

againstthebackdropofincreasingregionaldisputesarereshapingtraditionalvaluechainconfigurations.Additionally,thenewfoundfluxoftariffsandtrade

policiesiscreatingavolatileenvironment,requiring

businessestoremainagileandresponsivetosuddenregulatoryshifts.Thesechangesarecompelling

organizationstonavigateacomplexterrainmarkedbyescalatinggeopoliticaltensionsandincreasinglyfragmentedmarketaccess.

2Regulatorycomplexity

Theregulatorylandscapecontinuestobe

alabyrinthineecosystem,characterizedby

fragmentationandcomplexityacrossgeographicalandindustrialboundaries.Industryleadersare

facingmultidimensionalchallengesinwhich

regulatoryframeworksareevolvingatvarying

speeds,addingtouncertaintyfrominconsistent

implementationsandcross-borderambiguities.2

Theuncertaintyofunplannedregulatory

interventionsistransforminginvestmentstrategies,3compellingbusinessestodevelopagilemodelsofgovernancecapableofnavigatingintricatewebsofemergingregulatoryrequirements.

3Consumerbehaviourandexpectations

Topuncertaintiesinvaluechainsoftenarisefrom

unforeseenandchangingconsumerdemands,asshiftingpreferencesandexpectationscanmake

itchallengingforbusinessestoadaptquicklyto

evolvingtrends.Additionally,thereareuncertaintiesaroundtheendoflife(EOL)andextensionofthe

lifeofproducts,ascertainconsumerdemographicsincreasinglydemandlonger-lasting,recyclableor

repairableproducts,4butbusinessesmaystruggletoprovideclearstrategiesforthesetransitions.

Additionally,changingconsumerexpectations,

influencedinpartbysocialmedia,haveincreaseddemandforfastorinstantdeliveryoptions.

4Climatedisruption

Climatechangewilllikelyincreasinglydisruptglobalsupplychains,posingsignificantchallengesto

logistics,manufacturingandoverallvaluechain

operations.Extremeweatherevents,suchas

floods,mightdisruptproduction,delayshipmentsanddamageessentialinfrastructure.Furthermore,

valuechainfacilitiesandassetsmayremainhighly

vulnerabletoclimate-relateddamage,further

intensifyingsupplynetworkstrain.5Meanwhile,supplychainsthemselveswillprobablycontinuetocontributetoclimatechangethroughhighemissionsfrom

manufacturingandextensivelogisticsoperations.

Toaddressthis,itisplausiblethatanincreasing

numberofdifferingsustainabilityregulationswillbe

implemented,requiringmanufacturerstotakestrongermeasurestoreducetheirimpactontheplanet.

5Technologyevolution

Theuncertaintiesoftechnologyevolutionwill

significantlyshapefuturevaluechainsbycreating

challengesandopportunitiesinseveraldimensions.Thespeedatwhichtechnologiesdiffuseacross

industrieswilldeterminehowquicklyvaluechains

canadapttonewinnovations,withearlyadopters

potentiallygainingacompetitiveadvantage.

Additionally,thegeographicalfragmentationof

technology,wheresomeregionshaveaccessto

advancedsystemswhileotherslagbehind,willleadtounevendevelopmentandintegrationofglobal

valuechainsaswellasafragmentedlandscapeof

regulations.Moreover,thegapineducationandskillswillpersistasthespeedoftechnologicaladvancesoutpacesthespeedofworkforceskilling,causing

furtherproblemsforworkforcesalreadyinneedofskillingandreskilling.

6Cybersecurity

Asdigitalecosystemsgrowmorecomplex,

cybersecuritywillbecomeanincreasinglycriticalconcern.Yetmanyorganizationsmaystruggle

withlimitedvisibilityandawarenessofemergingthreats,leavingthemvulnerabletocyberattacks.Thisissuecouldbeparticularlyevidentinsupplychains,wherecybersecurityriskscanleadto

majordisruptions,affectingglobaloperationsandlogistics.Thegrowingcomplexityofdigitalizationisexacerbatingcyberinequity,wideningthegapbetweenlargeandsmallorganizations,deepening

thedividebetweendevelopedandemerging

economiesandexpandingsectoraldisparities.7Additionally,theshortageofskilledcybersecurityprofessionalswillexacerbatethesechallenges,8makingitdifficultforbusinessestoimplement

robustdefencesagainstevolvingcyberthreats.

7Workforceandskills

Asindustriescontinuetoadoptnewtechnologies

andshifttowardsmoresustainableanddigital

practices,workersmustcontinuouslylearnand

adapttostaycompetitive.9Thisfast-paced

transformationcallsforaworkforcethatisnotonlytechnicallyproficientbutalsocapableofadjustingtonewenvironmentsandchallenges,makingflexibilityandadaptabilitycrucialqualitiesforsuccessinthemodernlabourmarket.Additionally,geographical

disparitiesinworkforceflexibilitycreatesignificantuncertaintyforbusinesses,astherequired

personnelcapacityandskillsmaynotbepresentinkeyregions,leadingtochallengesinrecruitment,increasedlabourcostsanddelaysinscaling

operationsorimplementingnewtechnologies.

8Socialequity

Thepursuitofsocialequityhasemergedas

anexusoftechnologicaltransformationand

regulatoryevolution.Asnearly2.6billionpeople

remainunderconnectedtodigitalinfrastructure,10

thedigitaldivideismorethanatechnological

gap–itrepresentsprofoundinequalitiesthat

challengeeconomicandsocialideals.Increasingly,pressureswithregardtosocialequityarecompellingorganizationstoreimaginetheirapproachto

workforcedevelopment,technologicalintegrationandinclusivegrowth.Thegrowinguncertainties

aroundtechnologicalaccess,labour-market

dynamicsandbroadersystematicbarriersrequiremultistakeholderaccountabilityandcollaborationstrategiestoensurethatconversationsabout

socialequitymovefromperipheralthoughttocorestrategicpriorities.

FromShocktoStrategy:BuildingValueChainsfortheNext30Years6

Drivingforce

Uncertainties

—Shiftingpreferencesandexpectations

—Growingpreference

fordurable,sustainableandrepairableproducts

—Decreasingconsumerattentionspansinpurchasingdecisions

Consumer

behaviourandexpectations

—Disruptionstovaluechainscausedbyextremeweatherevents

—Climate-relatedrisksthreatenfacilitiesandphysicalassets

—Growingimplementationofclimateandsustainabilityregulations

Climate

disruption

—Shifttowardsregionalizedsupplyandproductionnetworks

Globalrelations—Risingtradeandinvestment

capabilityneeds

—Geographicalavailabilityofworkforceandskills

andtraderestrictionsacrossmarkets

—Unpredictablechangesin

policies,tariffsandregulations

andskills

Regulatory

complexity

—

—

—

Complexandfragmentedregulatory

landscapeacrossgeographicalandindustrialboundaries

Limitedsupportforeffectiveimplementation

Unpredictableinvestmentsdrivenbyregulatorychanges

—Unevensocialandeconomicdevelopmentacrossregions

—Persistentdigitaldividewithunequalaccesstoemergingtechnologies

—Shiftinglabourmarketdynamicsdrivenbyautomationand

globalization

Social

equity

FIGURE1Eightdrivingforcesareshapingfuturevaluechainconfigurations

Drivingforce

Uncertainties

Technologyevolution

—Rapiddiffusionofnewtechnologies

—Unequalaccessto,andadoptionof,technologyacrossregions

—Wideninggapintechnologicaleducationandworkforceskills

Cybersecurity

—Limitedvisibilityandawareness

ofcybersecuritythreats

—Cyberattacksincreasinglydisrupt

supplychainoperations

—Ongoingshortageofskilled

cybersecurityprofessionals

Workforce

—Emergingtechskillsrequirements—Evolvingflexibilityandadaptability

Source:WorldEconomicForum

FromShocktoStrategy:BuildingValueChainsfortheNext30Years7

FromShocktoStrategy:BuildingValueChainsfortheNext30Years8

2

Keypillarsoffuture-readyvaluechains

Integratedsustainability,end-to-end

collaborationandadoptionoftechnologyareessentialpillarsforfuture-readyvaluechains.

Toaddresschallengesanduncertaintiesrelatedtothedrivingforcesthatthemanufacturingecosystemwillcontinuetonavigatethrough2050,thecouncildesignedastrategicframeworkoutliningthree

notabledimensionsconsideredessentialinvaluechainsofthefuture:integratedsustainability,end-to-endcollaborationandtechnologyadoption.

Thecouncilviewsthesedimensionsasessential

perspectivesfromwhichtounderstandandshapefuture-readysupplychainsrootedinpeople,planetandprosperity.

Integratedsustainabilityisvitalforresilient

supplychains,embeddingenvironmental,social

andgovernance(ESG)principlestomitigate

environmentalandsocialriskswhileadaptingto

regulations.Thisapproachoptimizesresources,

reducescosts,meetsconsumerdemandsfor

responsiblepracticesandprovidescompetitive

advantagesthroughmoreefficientandethical

operationsinevolvingmarkets.End-to-end

collaborationiscrucialforfuture-readysupply

chains,enhancingefficiency,agilityandresiliencethroughoutthevaluechain.Itimprovesstakeholdercoordination,minimizesdelaysandstrengthens

decision-makingwhileenablingrapidresponses

todisruptions,inspiringinnovationandensuring

regulatorycompliance–primeadvantagesina

dynamic,interconnectedmarketplace.Technologyadoptionispivotalforfuture-readysupplychains,enablingautomation,real-timedecisionsand

improvedefficiency.Advancedtechnologies

facilitatesmarterforecasting,optimizeresources

andaccelerateresponsestomarketshiftsand

disruptions.Thisintegrationstreamlinesoperations,maintainscompetitiveness,ensuresscalabilityandmeetsevolvingconsumerexpectationsintoday’sdigitalmarketplace.Eachofthesedimensions

includesanumberofcomponents,withindicatorsservingastheirreal-worldmeasures:

1.Integratedsustainability

–Environmentalsustainability:e.g.greenhousegas(GHG)emissions,circulareconomy,

decarbonizationandcradle-to-cradleproductdesigns.

–Socialsustainability:e.g.humanrightsandlabourpractices,health,safety,well-being,diversity,equityandinclusion(DEI)and

educationandempowerment.

–Supplychaingovernance:e.g.marketintegrityandstandards,governanceandcompliance,ethicsandanti-corruptionandemissions

monitoringandaccounting.

2.End-to-endcollaboration

–Resourceandprocesssharing:e.g.

sharedassetuse,knowledgesharingandinnovation,geographicalindustrialsynergiesandcollaborativeproductandprocess

management.

–Real-timeinterconnectivity:e.g.real-time

operationsandmonitoring,virtualworkforce(internet-based),workforceaugmentationandend-to-endsupplychainintegration.

–Alignmentwithregulatoryrequirements:e.g.

complianceincentivesandguidelines,data-

drivencompliancemonitoring,regulatory

complianceandenforcementandcross-borderandintergovernmentalcollaboration.

3.Technologyadoption

–Automationandautonomy:e.g.drones,robots/cobots,autonomousvehiclesandreal-time

processcontrol.

–Intelligenceandself-learningsystems:e.g.AI

andgenerativeartificialintelligence(GenAI),bigdataandadvancedanalytics,machinelearning,deeplearning,neuralnetworksandquantum

computing.

–Connectivityandintegration:e.g.sensor

technologyandinternetofthings(IoT),5G

networks,industrialmetaverseandwearablesandsmartdevices.

FromShocktoStrategy:BuildingValueChainsfortheNext30Years9

3

Strategiesshapingvaluechainsupto2030

Manufacturingandsupplychain

stakeholders’actionstodaywillshapethevaluechainsof2030.

lead-upto2030.Buildingontheseactions,thecouncilengagedthe

GlobalLighthouseNetwork

–aconsortiumofleadersintechnology-driven

industrialtransformation–toshowcasebest-in-classindustryusecasesthattranslatestrategic

intentintooperationaldelivery.Bydocumentingthisnear-termbaselineofactionsandexemplars,thecouncilhasestablishedareferencepointfromwhichlonger-termprojectionsandstrategieshavebeendeveloped.

Groundingthecouncil’sforesightwork,2030

servesasastrategicanchorpointfortheanalysisfor2040and2050.Bridgingworkdonebythe

WorldEconomicForum–incollaborationwith

Kearneyandhighlightedin

FromDisruptionto

Opportunity:StrategiesforRewiringGlobalValue

Chains

–thecouncildrewoninsightsfrommorethan300executivesurveyrespondentsandmorethan30consultationstounderstandtheleadingactionsmanufacturingandsupplychainactors

aretakingtoredesigntheirvaluechainsinthe

FIGURE2

Overviewofstrategiesshapingvaluechainsupto2030

Integratedsustainability

—Cradle-to-cradleproductdesignandclosed-loopbusinessmodels

—Usealternativesustainablepartsandsustainablerawmaterials

—Definingquantifiablesustainabilitytargets

—ReducingScope3emissions

—Growingdiversity,equityandinclusion(DEI)

—Investingincontinuousreskillingandupskillingprogrammes

Source:WorldEconomicForum

End-to-endcollaboration

—Diversifyingthesuppliernetworktoincreaseresilience

—Havingnearlyallin-region-for-regionoperationsthoughre-and

nearshoring

—Applyingadvancedanalyticsin

customerengagementsthroughdemandsensing

—Expandingsuppliermanagementtoincludetier2andbeyond

—Enablingdatasharingbetweensuppliersandcustomers

Technologyadoption

—Revampinglegacysystems

—Implementingnetwork-wideassetvisibilitytechnologies

—Investinginbigdataandadvancedanalytics

—Introducingtechnologyhubs

—Deployingreal-timeenterprise

resourceplanning(ERP)forrapidlyrespondingtodisruptions

—IntegratingAIdecision-makingwithsupplychaindigitaltwin

FromShocktoStrategy:BuildingValueChainsfortheNext30Years10

3.1

Integratedsustainability

Anincreasingprioritizationwillalsobeplacedon

sustainablerawmaterialsandpackaging,setting

quantifiablesustainabilitytargetsandactively

reducingScope3emissionsthroughcollaboration

withmanufacturingandlogisticspartners.Finally,

thesurveyrevealedthatorganizationswillcontinue

strengtheningcommitmentstoethicswhileinvestingincontinuousreskillingandupskillingprogrammestoprepareemployeesforarapidlyevolving,technology-driveneconomy(Figure2).

Thesurveyhighlightsthattoday’sleadingcompaniesarefocusingtheirsustainabilityeffortsonreducing

GHGemissions,minimizingwastethrough

streamlinedproductportfoliosandredesigning

logisticsnetworksforshiftinglabourdynamics–bothinternalandsupplierdevelopments.Looki