风险管理【外文翻译】

外文文献翻译译文

一、外文原文

原文：

RiskManagement

Thischapterreviewsanddiscussesthebasicissuesandprinciplesofrisk

management,including:riskacceptability(tolerability);riskreductionandthe

ALARPprinciple;cautionaryandprecautionaryprinciples.Andpresentsacasestudy

showingtheimportanceoftheseissuesandprinciplesinapracticalmanagement

context.Beforewetakeacloserlook,letusbrieflyaddresssomebasicfeaturesofrisk

management.

Thepurposeofriskmanagementistoensurethatadequatemeasuresaretakento

protectpeople,theenvironment,andassetsfrompossibleharmfulconsequencesof

theactivitiesbeingundertaken,aswellastobalancedifferentconcerns,inparticular

risksandcosts.Riskmanagementincludesmeasuresbothtoavoidthehazardsandto

reducetheirpotentialharm.Traditionally,inindustriessuchasnuclear,oil,andgas,

riskmanagementwasbasedonaprescriptiveregulatingregime,inwhichdetailed

requirementsweresetwithregardtothedesignandoperationofthearrangements.

Thisregimehasgraduallybeenreplacedbyamoregoal-orientedregime,putting

emphasisonwhattoachieveratherthanonthemeansofachievingit.

Riskmanagementisanintegralaspectofagoal-orientedregime.Itis

acknowledgedthatriskcannotbeeliminatedbutmustbemanaged.Thereis

nowadaysanciionuousdriveandculhusiasiiiinvaiiousindustriesandinsociety空a

wholetoimplementriskmanagementinorganizations.Therearehighexpectations

thatriskmanagementistheproperframeworkthroughwhichtoachievehighlevelsof

performance.

Riskmanagementinvolvesachievinganappropriatebalancebetweenrealizing

opportunitiesfbrgainandminimizinglosses.Itisanintegralpartofgood

managementpracticeandanessentialelementofgoodcorporategovernance.Itisan

iterativeprocessconsistingofstepsthat,whenundertakeninsequence,canleadtoa

continuousimprovementindecision-makingandfacilitateacontinuousimprovement

inperformance.

Tosupportdecision-makingregardingdesignandoperation,riskanalysesare

carriedout.Theyincludetheidentificationofhazardsandthreats,causeanalyses,

consequenceanalyses,andriskdescriptions.Theresultsarethenevaluated.The

totalityoftheanalysesandtheevaluationsarereferredtoasriskassessments.Risk

assessmentisfollowedbyrisktreatment,whichisaprocessinvolvingthe

developmentandimplementationofmeasurestomodifytherisk,includingmeasures

designedtoavoid,reduce("optimize"),transfer,orretaintherisk.Risktransfermeans

sharingwithanotherpartythebenefitorlossassociatedwitharisk.Itistypically

affectedthroughinsurance.Riskmanagementcoversallcoordinatedactivitiesinthe

directionandcontrolofanorganizationwithregardtorisk.

Inmanyenterprises,theriskmanagementtasksaredividedintothreemain

categories:strategicrisk,financialrisk,andoperationalrisk.Strategicriskincludes

aspectsandfactorsthatareimportantfortheenterpriserslong-termstrategyandplans,

forexamplemergersandacquisitions,technology,competition,politicalconditions,

legislationandregulations,andlabormarket.Financialriskincludestheenterprise's

financialsituation,andincludes:Marketrisk,associatedwiththecostsofgoodsand

services,foreignexchangeratesandsecurities(shares,bonds,etc.).Creditrisk,

associatedwithadebtor'sfailuretomeetitsobligationsinaccordancewithagreed

terms.Liquidityrisk,reflectinglackofaccesstocash;thedifficultyofsellinganasset

inatimelymanner.Operationalriskisrelatedtoconditionsaffectingthenormal

opcralingsilualiuu:Avciduulalevents,includingfailuresanddefects,quality

deviations,naturaldisasters.Intendedacts;sabotage,disgruntledemployees,etc.Loss

ofcompetence,keypersonnel.Legalcircumstances,associatedforinstance,with

defectivecontractsandliabilityinsurance.

Foranenterprisetobecomesuccessfulinitsimplementationofriskmanagement,

lopmanagementneedslobeinvolved,andactivitiesmustbeputintoeffectonmany

levels.Someimportantpointstoensuresuccessarc:theestablishmentofastrategy

forriskmanagement,i.e.,theprinciplesofhowtheenterprisedefinesandimplements

riskmanagement.Shouldonesimplyfollowtheregulatoryrequirements(minimal

requirements),orshouldonebethe“bestintheclass"?Theestablishmentofarisk

managementprocessfortheenterprise,i.e.formalprocessesandroutinesthatthe

enterpriseistofollow.Theestablishmentofmanagementstructures,withrolesand

responsibilities,suchthattheriskanalysisprocessbecomesintegratedintothe

organization.Theimplementationofanalysesandsupportsystems,suchasrisk

analysistools,recordingsystemsforoccurrencesofvarioustypesofevents,etc.The

communication,training,anddevelopmentofariskmanagementculture,sothatthe

competence,understanding,andmotivationlevelwithintheorganizationisenhanced.

Giventheabovefundamentalsofriskmanagement,thenextstepistodevelop

principlesandamethodologythatcanbeusedinpracticaldecision-making.Thisis

not,however,straightforward.Thereareanumberofchallengesandhereweaddress

someofthese:establishinganinformativeriskpictureforthevariousdecision

altemalives,usingthisriskpictureinadecision-makingcontext.Establishingan

informativeriskpicturemeansidentifyingappropriateriskindicesandassessmentsof

uncertainties.Usingtheriskpictureinadecisionmakingcontextmeansthedefinition

andapplicationofriskacceptancecriteria,costbenefitanalysesandtheALARP

principle,whichstates:hatriskshouldbereducedtoalevelwhichisaslowasis

reasonablypracticable.

Itiscommontodefineanddescriberisksintermsofprobabilitiesandexpected

values.Thishas,however,beenchallenged,sincetheprobabilitiesandexpected

valuescancamouflageuncertainties;theassignedprobabilitiesareconditionalona

numberofassuuipliousandsuppusilions,andtheydependonthebackground

knowledge.Uncertaintiesareoftenhiddeninthisbackgroundknowledge,and

restrictingattentiontotheassignedprobabilitiescancamouflagefactorsthatcould

producesurprisingoutcomes.Byjumpingdirectlyintoprobabilities,important

uncertainlyaspectsareeasilytruncated,andpotentialsurprisesmaybeleft

unconsidered.

Letus,asanexample,considertherisks,seenthroughtheeyesofariskanalyst

inthe1970s,associatedwithfuturehealthproblemsfordiversworkingonoffshore

petroleumprojects.Theanalystassignsavaluetotheprobabilitythatadiverwould

experiencehealthproblems(properlydefined)duringthecoming30yearsduetothe

divingactivities.Letusassumethatavalueof1%wasassigned,anumberbasedon

theknowledgeavailableatthattime.Therearenostrongindicationsthatthedivers

willexperiencehealthproblems,butweknowtodaythattheseprobabilitiesledto

poorpredictions.Manydivershaveexperiencedseverehealthproblems(Avonand

Vine,2007).Byrestrictingrisktotheprobabilityassignmentsalone,important

aspectsofuncertaintyandriskarehidden.Thereisalackofunderstandingaboutthe

underlyingphenomena,buttheprobabilityassignmentsalonearenotabletofully

describethisstatus.

Severalriskperspectivesanddefinitionshavebeenproposedinlinewiththis

realization.Forexample,Avon(2007a,2008a)definesriskasthetwo-dimensional

combinationofevents/consequencesandassociateduncertainties(willtheevents

occur,whattheconsequenceswillbe).Acloselyrelatedperspectiveissuggestedby

AvonandRenan(2008a),whodefineriskassociatedwithanactivityasuncertainty

aboutandseverityoftheconsequencesoftheactivity,whereseverityrefersto

intensity,size,extension,scopeandotherpotentialmeasuresofmagnitudewith

respecttosomethingthathumansvalue(lives,theenvironment,money,etc.).Losses

andgains,expressedforexampleinmonetarytermsorasthenumberoffatalities,are

waysofdefiningtheseverityoftheconsequences.SeealsoAvonandChristensen

(2005).

Inthecaseoflargeuncertainties,riskassessmentscansupportdecision-making,

butoilierprinciples,measures,andinslruinuiilsarcalsurequired,suchaslliu

cautionary/precautionaryprinciplesaswellasrobustnessandresiliencestrategies.An

informativedecisionbasisisneeded,butitshouldbefarmorenuancedthancanbe

obtainedbyaprobabilisticanalysisalone.Thishasbeenstressedbymanyresearchers,

e.g.Apostolicism(1990)andApostolicismandLemon(2005):qualitativerisk

analysis(QRA)resultsareneverthesolebasisfordecision-making.Safety-and

security-relateddecision-makingisrisk-informed,notrisk-based.Thisconclusionis

not,however,justifiedmerelybyreferringtotheneedforaddressinguncertainties

beyondprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Themainissuehereisthefactthatrisks

needtobebalancedwithotherconcerns.

Whenvarioussolutionsandmeasuresaretobecomparedandadecisionistobe

made,theanalysisandassessmentsthathavebeenconductedprovideabasisforsuch

adecision.Inmanycases,establisheddesignprinciplesandstandardsprovideclear

guidance.Compliancewithsuchprinciplesandstandardsmustbeamongthefirst

referencepointswhenassessingrisks.Itiscommonthinkingthatriskmanagement

processes,andespeciallyALARPprocesses,requireformalguidelinesorcriteria(e.g.,

riskacceptancecriteriaandcost-effectivenessindices)tosimplifythe

decision-making.Caremust;however,beshownwhenusingthistypeofformal

decision-makingcriteria,astheyeasilyresultinamechanizationofthe

decision-makingprocess.Suchmechanizationisunfortunatebecause:

Decision-makingcriteriabasedonrisk-relatednumbersalone(probabilitiesand

expectedvalues)donotcapturealltheaspectsofrisk,costs,andbenefits,nomethod

hasaprecisionthatjustifiesamechanicaldecisionbasedonwhethertheresultisover

orbelowanumericalcriterion.Itisamanagerialresponsibilitytomakedecisions

underuncertainty,andmanagementshouldbeawareoftherelevantrisksand

uncertainties.

ApostolicismandLemon(2005)adoptapragmaticapproachtoriskanalysisand

riskmanagement,acknowledgingthedifficultiesofdeterminingtheprobabilitiesof

anattack.Ideally,theywouldliketoimplementarisk-informedprocedure,basedon

expectedvalues.However,sincesuchanapproachwouldrequiretheuseof

probabilitiesdialhavenulbeen"'rigorouslyderived”,theybeeihcnibulvcsforcedlo

resorttoamorepragmaticapproach.

Thisisonepossibleapproachwhenfacingproblemsoflargeuncertainties.The

riskanalysessimplydonotprovideasufficientlysolidbasisforthedecision-making

process.Wearguealongthesamelines.Thereisaneedforamanagementreviewand

judgmentprocess.Itisnecessarytoseebeyondthecomputedriskpictureintheform

oftheprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.1raditionalquantitativeriskanalysesfailin

thisrespect.Weacknowledgetheneedforanalyzingrisk,butquestionthevalue

addedbyperformingtraditionalquantitativeriskanalysesinthecaseoflarge

uncertainties.Thearbitrarinessinthenumbersproducedcanbesignificant,duetothe

uncertaintiesintheestimatesorasaresultoftheuncertaintyassessmentsbeing

stronglydependentontheanalysts.

Itshouldbeacknowledgedthatriskcannotbeaccuratelyexpressedusing

probabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Aquantitativeriskanalysisisinmanycasesbetter

replacedbyamorequalitativeapproach,asshownintheexamplesabove;an

approachwhichmaybereferredtoasasemi-quantitativeapproach.Quantifyingrisk

usingriskindicessuchastheexpectednumberoffatalitiesgivesanimpressionthat

riskcanbeexpressedinaverypreciseway.However,inmostcases,thearbitrariness

islarge.Tnasemi-quantitativeapproachthisisacknowledgedbyprovidingamore

nuancedriskpicture,whichincludesfactorsthatcancause“surprises”relativetothe

probabilitiesandtheexpectedvalues.Quantificationoftenrequiresstrong

simplificationsandassumptionsand,asaresult,importantfactorscouldbeignoredor

giventoolittle(ortoomuch)weight.Inaqualitativeorsemi-quantitativeanalysis,a

morecomprehensiveriskpicturecanbeestablished,takingintoaccountunderlying

factorsinfluencingrisk.Incontrasttotheprevailinguseofquantitativeriskanalyses,

theprecisionleveloftheriskdescriptionisinlinewiththeaccuracyoftherisk

analysistools.Inaddition,riskquantificationisveryresourcedemanding.Oneneeds

toaskwhethertheresourcesareusedinthebestway.Weconcludethatinmanycases

moreisgainedbyopeningupthewaytoabroader,morequalitativeapproach,which

allowsforconsiderationsbeyondtheprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.

Thutradilioualquanlilalivcriskasbcssincnlsasseenforcxainplcinihcnuclear

andtheoil&gasindustriesprovidearathernarrov/riskpicture,throughcalculated

probabilitiesandexpectedvalues,andweconcludethatthisapproachshouldbeused

withcareforproblemswithlargeuncertainties.Alternativeapproacheshighlighting

thequalitativeaspectsaremoreappropriateinsuchcases.Abroadriskdescriptionis

required.Thisisalsothecaseinthenormativeambiguitysituations,astherisk

characterizationsprovideabasisfortheriskevaluationprocesses.1'hcmainconcern

isthevaluejudgments,buttheyshouldbesupportedbysolidscientificassessments,

showingabroadriskpicture.Ifonetriestodemonstratethatitisrationaltoaccept

risk,onascientificbasis,toonarrowanapproachtoriskhasbeenadopted.

Recognizinguncertaintyasamaincomponentofriskisessentialtosuccessfully

implementriskmanagement,forcasesoflargeuncertaintiesandnormative

ambiguity.

Ariskdescriptionshouldcovercomputedprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues,as

wellas:Sensitivitiesshowinghowtheriskindicesdependonthebackground

knowledge(assumptionsandsuppositions);Uncertaintyassessments;Descriptionof

thebackgroundknowledge,includingmodelsanddataused.

Theuncertaintyassessmentsshouldnotberestrictedtostandardprobabilistic

analysis,asthisanalysiscouldhideimportantuncertaintyfactors.Thesearchfor

quantitative,explicitapproachesforexpressingtheuncertainties,evenbeyondthe

subjectiveprobabilities,mayseemtobeapossiblewayforward.However,suchan

approachisnotrecominended.Tryingtobepreciseandtoaccuratelyexpresswhatis

extremelyuncertaindoesnotmakesense.Insteadwerecommendamoreopen

qualitativeapproachtorevealsuchuncertainties.Somemightconsiderthistobeless

attractivefromamethodologicalandscientificpointofview.Perhapsitis,butit

wouldbemoresuitedforsolvingtheproblemathand,whichisabouttheanalysisand

managementofriskanduncertainties.

Source:TeijeAven.2010.“RiskManagement”.RiskinTechnologicalSystems,Oct,

P175-198.

二、翻译文章

译文：

风险管理

本章回顾和讨论风险管理的基本问题和原则,包括：风险可接受性(耐受性)、

风险削减和安全风险管理原则、警示和预防原则，并提出了一个研究案例，说明

在实际管理环境中这些问题和原则的重要性。这需要我们的深入研究，在此之前,

让我们简单谈谈风险管理的一些基本特征。

风险管理的目的是：在现时事件产生有害后果时.，及时采取适当的措施以确

保人类，环境和资产的安全，以及平衡人们的不同关注取向，特别是风险和成本。

风险管理包括两种措施，控制危险源和减少潜在的危害。传统上，诸如核能，石

油和天然气产业，风险管理主要是依靠规范监管制度来管理的，这项制度对设计

和操作的安排提出了系统性的要求。但是渐渐的，这一制度已被一项更加标准化

的制度所取代，此制度是强调要取得的成果而不是如何实现这些成果的手段。

风险管理是标准化制度的一个组成部分。风险不能消除，只能加以控制改善,

这是被人们所公认的。现在有一项具有巨大驱动力和感召力的措施正应运而生，

它将不同产业和社会作为一个整体来实施组织风险管理。风险管理是一项适当的

措施，人们对于用它来实现高产值有很大的期望C

风险管理包括可认识到的实现增益的机会和7员失的最小化，并且在它们之间

实现适当的平衡。这是一个组织构成良好有效的管理实践的基本要素这是一个

由递进步骤组成的反复的过程，按顺序进行时，能不断提高决策正确性并且促进

产值的不断增长。

为了支持决策方面的设计和操作，需要进行风险分析。它们包括危害物和威

胁识别，成因分析，结果分析和风险描述鉴定，然后评估结果。所有的分析和评

估将被作为风险评估。其次是风险评估的处理办法，这是一个过程，涉及开发和

实施措施来缓和风险，措施包括避免，减少（“优化”），转移或保留风险。风险

转移意味着与另一方共同享有利益或承担由于损失造成的风险。它最典型的是受

保险的影响。风险管理涵盖了所有协调活动的方向目标和风险组织。

在许多企业中，风险管理的任务分为三大类：战略风险，财务风险和经营风

险。战略风险包括对丁企业的长期战略和计划起重要作用的方面和因素，例如兼

并和收购，技术，竞争，政治环境，法律和法规，以及劳工市场。财务风险包括

影响企业财务状况的因素，包括：市场风险，商品和服务，外汇汇率和证券的相

关成本（股票，债权等）；信用风险，与债务人没有按照其约定的有关条款履行

义务；流动性风险，反映现金缺乏时，及时出售资产的困难。操作风险是有关条

件影响正常工作的情况：意外的事件，包括故障和缺陷，质量差，自然灾害；预

期行为，破坏，心怀不满的雇员等；丧失竞争力，关键人员；与法律环境下相关

的，例如有缺陷合同及责任保险。

一个企业要成功实施风险管理，需要高层管理人员参与，活动必须落实在许

多层面上。确保成功的要点是一个风险管理战略的确立，例如企业如何定义和实

施风险管理的原则。难道仅仅只需遵照监管要求（最低要求），或追求“成为最

好的”？企业风险管理过程的建立，包括企业贯彻的正式流程和常规。建立管理

结构，包括角色和责任分配，这样，风险分析过程和组织融为一体。分析和支持

系统的实施，如风险工具分析，执行，记录系统各种类型的事件的发生等。沟通,

培训和发展风险管理文化，这样，组织的能力，理解和动机水平得到增强。实施

了上述风险管理的基础原则后，下一步是制定可用于实际决策中的原则和方法。

然而，这并不是那么简单，还有一系列的挑战，在这里我们列举其中一些：为不

同的风险选择建立一个丰富的风险信息平台，将其运用到风险决策环境中°这意

味着正确认识不确定因素的风险指数和风险评估。在风险决策方面则意味着接受

风险的定义和准则，成本效益分析和安全风险管理原则，风险应该降低到实际合

理的最低水平。

定义和描述关于风险的概率和预期性价值是常见的现象。然而，这受到了挑

战，因为概率和预期值的不确定性是隐蔽的。概率的分配都是有条件的基于数量

的简单假设和推测，他们依据的是背景知识。不确定性往往是隐藏在这个背景知

识后面，注意限制性是由于给定的概率而产生的，这些因素的隐蔽性可能产生令

人惊讶的结果。直接考虑到了重要的不确定性因素容易被阻隔的可能性，而潜在

的惊喜可能会是你不曾考虑到的。

让我们举一个例子，通过20世纪70年代风险分析师分析海上石油项目工作

的有关潜水员未来健康的问题来考虑风险。该分析师对潜水员在未来30年中将

经历的由丁潜水活动而产生的健康问题（正确的定义）分配一个价值概率。让我

们假设1%的价值被分配，以当时的知识为基础是合适的。没有强烈的迹象表明

潜水员会遇到健康问题，但在今天我们知道这些概率导致了较少的预测。许多潜

水员们已出现了严重的健康问题（Avon和Vine,2007）。通过限制单独作业风险

的概率，不确定性和风险的重要方面被隐藏了。由于对深层次的现象缺乏了解，

单独作业的概率不能充分描述这种状态。

一些危险的观点和定义已被提出并且已被证实符合这个现实。例如，Avon

(2007a,2008a)把风险定义为事件/后果和相关不确定性的二维组合(将发生

的事件，后果将是什么)。Avon和Ronan(2008a)建议从一个密切相关的角度

将风险定义为有关不确定性活动及其产生的严重后果，其严重性是指强度，大小,

扩展，范围和其他潜在的关于人类价值(生活，环境，金钱等)的大小措施。损

失和收益，例如以货币形式或死亡人数表述的，足界定后果的严重程度的方法。

另见Avon和Christensen(2005)。

在具有较大不确定性的情况下，风险评估可以支持决策，但其他原则，措施

和手段也需要