2025年恒生生物科技指数研究分析报告

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美元指数长周期框架Abstract▫

The

Hang

Seng

Biotech

Index(HSHKBIO)

includes

a

total

of

50

constituent

stocks,

primarily

consisting

of

innovativepharmaceutical

companies,

new

biopharmaceutical

enterprises,

and

biotech

firms.

Among

the

50

constituent

stocks,

the

marketcap

of

AH

shares

accounts

for

only

20%,

presenting

notable

investment

scarcity.

Currently,

there

are

very

few

open-ended

productstracking

the

HangSeng

BiotechnologyIndex

on

the

market,with

only6

Chinese

institutions

having

issued

related

passive

ETFs.AsofApril2025,

thetotal

fund

sizehadamounted

toapproximately

6.65billion

RMB.▫

Foreign

investors

own

the

pricing

power

for

the

Hang

Seng

Biotechnology

Index.

By

April

2025,

their

share-holding

ratioremained

around

70%.

Due

to

foreign

investors’

strong

pricing

power,

the

AH

premium

of

biotech

stocks

is

prone

to

be

influenced

byforeign

sentiment.

The

three

main

driving

factors

are:

1)

U.S.

Bond

yields:

Pharmaceutical

companies

primarilyrely

on

U.S.

dollars

forfinancing

and

investment.

A

rise

in

U.S.

Treasury

yields

tends

to

dampen

their

investment

enthusiasm,

while

also

suppressing

foreigninvestors’

valuation

and

risk

appetite

for

emerging

industries

in

the

equitymarket;

2)

Credit

spreads:

When

the

macroeconomic

environmentdeteriorates,

policyuncertainty

increases,

or

industryprofit

expectations

are

damaged,

investors

tends

to

bet

on

domestic

liquidity

easing

andincentive

policies

for

pharmaceutical

companies,

thereby

boosting

their

stock

prices;

3)

Market

liquidity:

When

A-shares

and

Hong

Kongstocks

market

liquidity

deteriorate

due

to

risk-aversion,

foreign

investors

will

prioritize

reducing

holdings

in

Hong

Kong

stocks

with

arelativelytight

liquidity,

leading

toexcessivepricedeclines

inHong

Kong

stocks

compared

toA-shares.▫

Downside

risk

factors:

1)

Rise

in

U.S.

Treasury

bond

yields;

2)

Intensification

of

the

U.S.

Biosecurity

Act

and

tariff

sanctions;

3)Pharmaceuticals'

performance

conversionprogressfalls

short

of

expectations;.2报告摘要▫

恒生生物科技指数(HSHKBIO)共计包含50支成分股，主要包括创新药企、新型生物制药企业以及生物科技公司。在50支成分股中，AH股市值占比仅为20%，具备较明显的投资稀缺性。目前场内跟踪恒生生物科技指数的开放式产品较少，仅国内6家机构发布了相关的指数型ETF，截止2025年4月基金规模总计约66.5亿元人民币。▫

外资对恒生生物科技指数掌握定价权，截止2025年4月持股占比维持在70%左右。由于外资较强的定价权，导致生物科技股的AH溢价容易受外资情绪影响。在指数驱动因素和AH溢价的影响因素上，主要关注以下三点：1）美债收益率：药企投融资以美元为主，美债收益率上升容易降低药企投资积极性，同时也会不利于外资对新兴产业的估值和风险偏好；2）信用利差：当宏观经济环境恶化、政策不确定性加剧、行业盈利预期受损时，资金越会博弈国内流动性宽松以及药企专项激励政策，从而推升药企股价；3）市场流动性：当资金因风险厌恶对A股和港股的投资意愿减弱时，外资会优先考虑减持流动性较紧缺的港股，从而导致港股相对A股出现超跌。▫

下行风险因素：1）美债收益率上升；2）美国《生物安全法案》及关税制裁加剧；3）医药业绩转化进度不及预期。CONTENTIntroductionPricing

Power010204基础介绍定价权探讨SectorRotationsAH

Premium03行业轮动AH溢价01Introduction基础介绍1.1

HSBiotech

Index

Demonstrates

the

Strongest

Effectiveness▫

HK’s

healthcare

sector

has

three

major

industry

indices:

1)

HS

Healthcare

Index

(68

constituents),

2)

HS

Biotechnology

Index(50),

and

3)

HS

Innovative

Drug

Index

(37).

The

first

two

indices

share

significant

overlap

in

top

holdings,

resulting

in

high

long-termcorrelation,

whiletheInnovative

DrugIndex

focuses

exclusively

onpure-playinnovative

drugcompanies.▫

Methodology-wise,

the

Biotech

Index

rebalances

quarterly—more

frequently

than

the

semi-annual

adjustments

of

the

other

two—enablingit

totrack

leadingHong

Kong

healthcarestocks

more

effectively.ThreeMajor

Healthcare

SectorIndicesinHong

Kong

StocksHSHealthcare

IndexHSInnovative

Drug

IndexHSBiotechIndex(Right

Axis)9000800070006000500040003000200010000350003000025000200001500010000500002010-032012-032014-032016-032018-032020-032022-032024-03Source:

Wind,

iFind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。1.1

恒生生物科技指数▫

港股医药相关有三大行业指数：①恒生医疗保健指数（68个成分股）、②恒生生物科技指数（50个成分股）、③恒生创新药指数（37个成分股）。前两大指数的重仓成分股较为接近，长期走势相关性较高，而恒生创新药指数仅专注细分的创新药业务。▫

编制方式上，恒生生物科技指数每季度调仓，比每半年调仓的其他两大指数更迅速，可更有效跟踪港股医药龙头走势。港股三大医药行业指数恒生医疗保健恒生创新药恒生生物科技(右轴)9000800070006000500040003000200010000350003000025000200001500010000500002010-032012-032014-032016-032018-032020-032022-03资料2024-03：WindiFind中信期货研究所Thisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinionsandinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

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report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。1.2

Focus

onDrugsandMedical

Devices▫

The

pharmaceutical

stocks

in

HK

have

their

scarcity.

Before

the

launch

of

the

Science

and

Technology

Innovation

Board

(STARMarket),

only

HK

stocks

allowed

eligible

biotech

companies

that

had

not

yet

made

profits

or

had

no

revenue

to

go

public.

So,

manyinnovative

pharmaceutical

companies,

new

biopharmaceutical

enterprises,

and

other

biotech

companies

are

listed

in

Hong

Kongratherthaninthe

A-sharemarket.▫

The

pharmaceutical

stocks

included

in

the

Biotech

Index

are

mainly

innovative

drug

(biological

drugs,

chemical

drugs,biotechnology),

medical

device,

and

CXO

companies,

while

A-share

listed

pharmaceutical

enterprises

are

mainly

generic

drugmanufacturers,

traditional

Chinese

medicine

companies,

pharmaceutical

distributors,

and

producers

of

low-value

medicalconsumable.Components

Classified

byHSThird-tier

IndustryComponents

Classified

by

BusinessesBiopharma/BiotechPharmaMedicalAestheticsMedicalServiceMedicalDevicesBiotech(HS)Pharma(HS)Drug

Distribution(HS)MedicalDevices(HS)MedicalDistribution36,

12%56,

12%2121,42%62Innovative

Drugs17,34%58Source:

Wind,

iFind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。81.2

侧重创新药和医疗器械▫

港股医药股有其稀缺性。在开设之前，只有港股允许符合条件但尚未盈利或无收入的生物科技公司上市（“18A规则”），所以许多创新药企、新型生物制药企业以及其他生物科技公司，都在港股而非A股上市。▫

指数成分的医药股主要为创新药（生物药、化学药、生物科技）、医疗器械和CXO，而A股上市医药企业主要为仿制药、中药、医药商业、低价值的医疗器械等。指数成分公司按恒生三级行业分类（家）指数成分公司按业务分类（家）生物技术(HS)药品(HS)药品分销(HS)医疗设备及用品(HS)Biopharma/Biotech

Pharma

CXO

医美

医疗器械

医疗服务

医药流通36,

12%56,

12%2121,42%62创新药17,34%58资料：WindiFind中信期货研究所Thisreport

isnot

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under

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futures

trading

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Theopinionsandinformation

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CITIC

Futures

do

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consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

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receipt,

orreading

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report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。91.3.

The

Low

Proportion

of

AH

Shares▫

By

April

2025,

there

were

13

AH

shares

in

the

index,

accounting

for

approximately

17%

to

20%

of

the

index

weight,

giving

the

indexcertain

scarceattributes.▫

Except

that

the

AH

premium

of

WuXi

AppTec

has

long

remained

around

1.0

to

1.1,

the

premium

rates

of

the

remaining

12

AH

sharesgenerally

stayat

about

1.5to2.0.▫

Especially

when

both

A-shares

and

Hong

Kong

stocks

experience

significant

declines,

the

AH

premium

rate

of

biotech

stocks

oftenclimbs

above2.0.HongKong

stocks

havelongshownobviousdiscounts.Proportion

of

AH

SharesAH

Premium

RateofComponent

Stocks25PercentileMedium75

PercentileWeight

of

AH

SharesWeight

of

HKShares2.62.42.22100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%1.81.61.41.210%2022-01-312022-11-302023-09-292024-07-312022/092023/012023/052023/092024/012024/052024/092025/01Source:

Wind,

iFind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。101.3AH股占比较低▫

截止2025年4月，恒生生物科技指数中AH股共计13支，占指数权重约为17%~20%，指数具有一定的稀缺属性。▫

除药明康德的AH溢价长期保持在1.0~1.1附近之外，剩余12支AH股的溢价率普遍维持在1.5~2.0左右。▫

在A股和港股同时发生大跌时，生物科技的AH股溢价率往往会攀升到2.0以上，港股长期存在较明显的折价。AH股权重占比情况（单位：%）成分股AH溢价分位数（单位：%）AH股占比H股占比25分位数50分位数75分位数100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%2.62.42.221.81.61.41.210%2022-01-312022-11-302023-09-292024-07-312022/092023/012023/052023/092024/012024/052024/092025/01资料：WindiFind中信期货研究所Thisreport

isnot

aservice

under

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futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinionsandinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。1102Pricing

Power定价权探讨2.1

Capital

Structure▫

HK

Intermediaries

are

divided

into

Chinese-funded,

Southbound

Stock

Connect,

foreign-funded,

and

HK-funded.

Specifically,foreign

and

Hong

Kong

capital

hold

a

dominant

position,

accounting

for

61%-80%

of

the

total

capital.

Since

2023,

foreign

capital

hasbeenreducing

holdings,

leadingtoa

passiveincreasein

theproportionof

SouthboundStock

Connect.▫

Till

the

end

of

March

2025,

the

proportion

of

capital

invested

by

domestic

and

Chinese-funded

institutions

into

the

Hang

SengBiotech

Index

hadrisento30%.▫

Affected

bythe

deterioration

ofSino-US

relations

inthe

pastyearandpolicy

factorssuchas"AmericaFirst",the

scaleof

foreigncapital'sholdings

inHong

Kong

hasbeenpassively

reduced.Proportion

ofCapitalHeldbyIntermediariesCapitalHeldbyIntermediariesForeign-funded

&HK-fundedForeign-funded

&HK-fundedSouthboundStockConnectChinese-FundedChinese-FundedUnit:0.1

Billion

Yuan100%90%25000SouthboundStockConnect3500030000HSBIOTECHIndex80%2000015000100005000025000

70%60%2000015000100005000050%40%30%20%10%0%2019/01

2020/01

2021/01

2022/01

2023/01

2024/01

2025/012019/012020/012021/012022/012023/012024/012025/01Source:

Wind,

iFind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

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reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

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relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

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report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。132.1

资金持股结构▫

将香港中介机构的席位分为中资、港股通、外资和港资。根据中介机构的持股市值占比来看，外资和港资在恒生生物科技中占61%-80%，拥有主导权。2023年后外资主动减持，引发了港股通的持股占比被动上升。▫

截止2025年3月末，内资和中资在恒生生物科技中的持股占比累计达到约30%。▫

受近一年中美关系恶化以及“美国优先”等政策因素影响，外资对香港的持股规模被动减少。中介机构持股市值与恒生生物科技趋势中介机构持股市值占比（%）外资+港资

中资

港股通外资+港资中资港股通恒生生物科技单位：亿元25000100%90%350003000080%2000015000100005000025000

70%60%2000015000100005000050%40%30%20%10%0%2019/01

2020/01

2021/01

2022/01

2023/01

2024/01

2025/012019/012020/012021/012022/012023/012024/012025/01资料：WindiFind中信期货研究所Thisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinionsandinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。142.2

Proportion

ofForeign

Capital’s

Holdings▫

In

the

Hong

Kong

pharmaceutical

sector,

foreign

capital

holds

controlling

stakes

in

most

individual

stocks,

with

typicalparticipants

mainly

from

Europe

and

the

United

States,

including

JPMorgan,

American

Capital

Group,

Brown

Brothers

Harriman,Temasek,

etc.▫

Affected

by

"America

First"

and

the

Biotech

Act,

U.S.-based

foreign

capital

rapidly

reduced

its

holdings

in

HK

pharma

stocks

in2024,

andthe

equityof

some

individualstocks

wastransferred

totheQatar

Investment

Authority.TheCumulative

Market

Valueheld

byForeign

Capital/Total

Market

ValueoftheTop

Five

Constituent

Stocks2025

20247%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%6.50%2.10%1.80%1.90%Temasek1.80%1.60%1.40%0.90%0.60%0.70%0.30%0.40%JPMorganBrownBrothersHariimanMorganStanleyAmericanCapitalGroupQuatarGroupSource:

Wind,

iFind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。152.2

外资持股情况▫

在港股医药中，外资对多数个股占有控股权，典型的参与者以欧美系为主，包括摩根大通、美国资本集团、布朗哈里曼、淡马锡等。▫

受“美国优先”以及生物法案的影响，2024年美系外资对对港股医药快速减持，部分个股的股权转让给了卡塔尔投资集团。前五大权重股外资好仓持股累计市值/总市值202520247.00%6.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00%6.5%2.1%1.9%1.8%1.8%1.6%1.4%0.9%0.7%0.6%0.4%0.3%摩根大通淡马锡布朗哈里曼摩根士丹利美国资本集团卡塔尔集团资料：WindiFind中信期货研究所Thisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinionsandinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。162.3.1

Belonging

ofPricing

Power▫

We

calculated

the

correlation

coefficients

between

the

stock

prices

of

individual

constituent

stocks

and

the

proportion

of

shares

held

byintermediary

institutions

andtook

themedian

valueof

thecoefficients

for

different

intermediary

institutionsfor

each

year.▫

From

2021

to

2025,

foreign

institutional

investors

had

strong

pricing

power

over

pharmaceutical

stocks,

with

more

than

half

of

theindividual

stocks

showing

a

correlation

coefficient

exceeding

0.5

between

their

stock

prices

and

the

proportion

of

foreign

holdings.Althoughthenumber

significantly

decreased

after

2024,

thepositive

correlationremained

remarkable.Correlation

ofProportion

ofShares

HeldbyIntermediaries

andStockPrice

(MedianValue)NumberofStocks

withaCorrelation

>0.5

BetweenShareholding

Proportion

andStockPrice2021202220232024~2023

2024~0.60.50.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5454035302520151050SouthboundStockConnectChinese-fundedHK-fundedForeign-fundedSouthboundStock

Chinese-fundedConnectHK-fundedForeign-fundedSource:

Wind,

iFind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。172.3.1资金定价权归属▫

统计个股股价与中介机构持股占比的相关性系数，并取每年的中位数。▫

2021~2025年外资机构对医药股具备较强的定价权，其中超半数个股的股价与外资持股占比的相关性超过0.5。虽然该数值在2024年之后有明显减少，但正相关性依然显著。不同机构持股占比与股价相关性（中位数）持股占比与股价相关性>0.5的股数2021年2022年2023年2024年~2023年

2024年~0.600.50454035302520151050.400.300.200.100.00-0.10-0.20-0.30-0.40-0.500港股通中资机构港资机构外资机构港股通港资中资资料外资：WindiFind中信期货研究所Thisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinionsandinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。182.3.2

Foreign

institutions

still

hold

the

pricing

power▫

1)Calculatethe

correlation

between

the

shareholding

proportion

of

different

intermediaries

andtherolling

60-daystock

price,and

identifythe

number

of

individual

stocks

with

correlation

>

0.5.

2)

If

the

average

shareholding

proportion

of

the

intermediary

for

the

correspondingindividualstocks

in

rolling5daysexceeds

thatin

10days,long

HangSeng

BiotechIndex

onthenext

day;otherwise,stay

flat.▫

It

can

be

found

in

the

following

figure

that

market

timing

for

the

Hang

Seng

Biotech

Index

based

on

signals

from

foreign

ownershipfluctuations

has

along-termalphaeffect,

whichproves

that

foreign

capital

hasastrongerimpact

onstock

prices.N

AV

ofHangSengBiotechnology

IndexBasedon

Timing

UsingDifferent

Fund

SignalsAnnualized

Excess

ReturnsBased

onTimingwith

DifferentFund

SignalsSouthbound

Stock

ConnectTiming/IndexHK-funded

Timing/Index201920202021202220232024~3.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.080%60%40%20%0%Foreign-fundedTiming/IndexChinese-fundedTiming/Index-20%-40%-60%SouthboundStockHK-fundedChinese-fundedForeign-fundedConnect2019/042020/042021/042022/042023/042024/04Timing/IndexSource:

Wind,

iFind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。192.3.2资金定价权归属▫

基于中介机构持股占比观察对指数价格影响，我们对恒生生物科技采用以下方法：1）统计中介机构持股占比与个股股价滚动60天的相关性，并筛选相关性系数>0.5的个股数量；2）若相应个股滚动5日持股占比均值>10日持股占比均值，则在次日买入恒生生物科技指数，反之空仓。▫

在下图中可以发现，基于外资的持股信号对恒生生物科技进行择时具备长期的alpha的效果，可以证明外资对股价的影响更强。不同资金信号择时_恒生生物科技指数净值基于不同资金信号择时年化超额收益港股通_择时/恒生生物科技中资_择时/恒生生物科技港资_择时/恒生生物科技外资_择时/恒生生物科技2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年2024年~80%60%3.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.040%20%0%-20%-40%-60%2019/042020/042021/042022/042023/042024/04港股通港资机构中资机构外资机构资料：WindiFind中信期货研究所Thisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinionsandinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。20Sector

Rotations03行业轮动3.1

The

Index

isNegatively

Correltated

with

the

U.S.

Treasury

Yield▫

The

HS

Biotech

Index

exhibits

a

significant

negative

correlation

(–0.84)

with

the

10-year

U.S.

Rising

global

risk-free

rates

notablysuppress

biotech

valuations.▫

Since

2024,

the

index’s

correlation

with

long-term

Chinese

bond

yields

has

strengthened.

The

"9·24"

market

surge

and

"East

Rises,West

Sets"

trendbolsteredconfidence

inChina’s

economic

recovery,lifting

riskappetite

for

high-valuation,high-betabiotech

stocks.TheIndexRemains

HighlyReactive

toGlobal

Liquidity

ShiftsTheIndexis

RelativelyDecoupledfromDomestic

Growth

DynamicsHang

Seng

BiotechIndex10-year

U.S.Treasuryyield(reverse)Hang

Seng

BiotechIndex10-year

CGByield300002500020000150001000050003.53.33.12.92.72.52.32.11.91.71.53000025000200001500010000500001234562019-122020-122021-122022-122023-122024-122019-122020-122021-122022-122023-122024-12Source:

Wind,

iFind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。3.1

与美债收益率负相关▫

恒生生物科技指数与十年期美债利率呈明显的负相关（-0.84），当海外无风险利率升高时，医药行业估值受到明显压制。▫

2024年以来，该指数和中债长端收益率的相关性提升。因“924”行情和“东升西落”行情提升市场对中国科技行业预期改善的信心，推动风险偏好提升，青睐高估值、高价格弹性的医药股。恒生生物科技指数对海外流动性环境敏感恒生生物科技指数与国内经济增长相对脱敏恒生生物科技10Y美国国债(逆序)恒生生物科技10Y中国国债300002500020000150001000050000123456300002500020000150001000050003.53.33.12.92.72.52.32.11.91.71.52019-122020-122021-122022-122023-122024-122019-122020-122021-122022-122023-122024-12资料：WindiFind中信期货研究所Thisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinionsandinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。3.2

The

Index

Moves

in

Tandem

with

Moutai

Basket

andNing

Portofolio▫

All

three

face

foreign

capital

dominance,

with

their

valuations

tied

to

U.S.

Treasury

yields,

suffering

outflow

pressures

during

Fed

ratehikes,

whichdragsdownprices.▫

They

peaked

simultaneously—double-top

pattern

in

February

2021

and

June-July

2021—with

maximum

drawdowns

reflecting

recoverymomentum:

MoutaiBasket:

-56%,

Ning

Portfolio:

-64%,

Hang

Seng

BiotechIndex:

-75%.TheIndex’sTrajectory

MirrorstheMoutai

BasketTheIndex’sTrajectory

MirrorstheNing

PortfolioHang

Seng

BiotechIndexMoutai

BasketIn