2025-2044年全球航空市场预测报告（英文版）-空中客车（Airbus）

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST

2025

2024:Astrongyearforairtransport

~4.8bn

passengers

10.6%

RPKgrowth

2.7%

realGDPgrowth

83.5%

loadfactor

$61.9bn

airlinesgrossoperatingprofit

002

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

Source:IATAJune2025,S&PGlobal

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

003

Source:IATAMonthlybyregionofairlinedomicile

Airlinesinallregionsareatorabove2019levels

DomesticrecoveryRPKsInternationalrecoveryRPKs

133%

108%

Africa

116%

117%

LatinAmerica

110%

114%

Europe

102%

112%

APAC

112%

124%

MiddleEast

106%

113%

NorthAmerica

108%

111%

World

April2025vsApril2019

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

004

Source:OxfordEconomics,ATAG(December2024,economicfiguresarefrom2023)

Airtransportisanessentialcontributortotheeconomy

EconomicroleTotaleconomicimpactofaviation

86.5mnjobs

ofwhich11.6mndirectjobs

$4.1tr

total

economicimpact

3.9%

ofWorldGDP

IcelandDominicanRepublic

25.1%

ofGDP

10.6%

ofGDP

MoroccoThailand

7.9%

ofGDP

6.8%

ofGDP

Airtransportisanessentialcontributortosociety

58%

internationaItouriststraveIIingbyair

89%*

offIownRPKhavenoconvenientaIternative

155mn

peopIeworkingabroad

*RevenuePassengerKiIometerswhereO&DgreatcircIedistance>1,000km

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

005

Source:ILO,OxfordEconomics,ATAG(December2024),Sabre,AirbusGMF2025

Offeringsafeand

convenientconnectivity

forall

CriticaIforislandsandIandIockednationsandremotearea

Airtravelcontinuestobecomemoreaccessible

Worldwidecapacity

2004(TrASK)

2024(TrASK)

GrowingGDPpercapitaandimprovingair

transport

affordabilityhavedemocratisedair

transport

Emerging*economies

1.6

Emerging*economies

5.7

Other

5.3

Other

3.4

Source:S&PGlobal,OAG,AirbusGMF2025

*53Emergingeconomies

006

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

Vietnamesetraffic7.5xin20years

200420142024

750

Vietnam

330

220

World

160

100

ASKIndexValue

(BaseYear2004)

Airbus

Source:IATA,OAG,GMF

007

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

Networkdensificationinfast-growingmarkets

20142024

3x

moreroutes>

Source:OAG

008

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

Airbuscommitmentstosustainableaviationgrowth

2030

2035

2050

F

E

C

2

C

2

Offerupto

100%

Reduceby

46%

SAFcapability

onourcommercialaircraft

theCO2emissionsintensity*

generatedbyourcommercialaircraft

Supportthe

‘net-zerocarbonemissionsʼby2050

*vs2015levels

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

009

Source:IATA,AirbusGMF2025

Weinvestin

pioneering

technologies,todrivedownemissions,enhanceefficiencyandbuildforthelong-term

Latestgenerationaircraft

Latestgenerationaircraftaredeliveringupto

25%betterfuel

efficiencyandlowerCOemissionsthan

2

previousgenerationaircraft

2024

Source:Cirium,AirbusGMF.Passengeraircraft(≥100seats)

.,

*Westernbuiltpassengeraircraftabove100seats–paxaircraftonly-asofend2024Newgeneration:A220,A320neoFamA330neo,A350,737Max,777X,787

010

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

Decarbonisationleversforaviation

UselessenergyUsedecarbonisedenergy

Aerodynamics

Structures

Propulsion

Infrastructure/Operations

Aircraft

technology

SAF

Hydrogenasfuel

Energy

ecosystem

+aircraft

technology

D

Aviationecosystemandbestpractices

+aircraft

technology

y

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

011

-54%offuelperRPKsince1990

Lookingforward

012

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

Shortterminperspective

OUTLOOK

WorldrealGDP&Worldrealtrade(%)

WorldrealGDP(%)

GMF2024

GMF2025

Worldrealtrade(%)

GMF2024

GMF2025

OUTLOOK

OilPrice(Brent-2024$reaIperbarreI)

OilPrice

GMF2024

GMF2025

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

013

Source:S&PGIobaI,AirbusGMF2025

MateriaIbutlimited

short-termimpactonthe

gIobaIeconomy

LoweroiIprices

positively

impactingairIines’costs

EarIysignsshowIimitedimpactonairtransporttraffic

GDP,tradeandpopulationarethemaindriversofairtrafficgrowth

Urbanpopulation

+1.3bn

from2024to2044

WorldGDP

+2.5%

CAGR2024-2044

Worldpopulation

+1.2bn

from2024to2044

Worldtrade

+2.6%

CAGR2024-2044

MiddleClass*

+1.5bn

from2024to2044

Source:S&PGlobal,OxfordEconomics,AirbusGMF2025

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

014

*Householdswithyearlyincomebetween$20,000and$150,000atPPPinconstant2015prices

In2024anaircraftwas50%moreproductivethanin2004

2004

12,800

paxa/cabove100seats

8.2

hours/day(1)

162

seats/flight

73%

loadfactor

2024

22,380

paxa/cabove100seats

d

10.2

hours/day(1)

185

seats/flight

83%

loadfactor

2004

annualRPKpera/c

=1.5x

2024

Source:IATA,OAG,

(1)hours/daybasedonBlockTime

Cirium,Airbus

015GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

Airtransportisincreasinglyaffordable

FORECAST(includingSAFandCO2costs)

WorldaveragepassengerYield(2019$UScentsperRPK)

Real

-3.0%CAGR

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025Source:IATA,ICAO,Sabre,AirbusGMF2025

016

Nominal

Improvedaircraft

productivityandtechnologyenableunitcostreduction

Airtransport

affordabilityisexpectedtocontinuetoimprove

Passengertrafficforecast

Worldairtraffic(trillionRPK)*

Shortterm

rebound

Midtolongterm3.6%CAGR

*RevenuePassengerKilometers,includesscheduledandnon-scheduledflights

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

017

Source:IATA,AirbusGMF2025

Continuingrebound

overnext2-3years

trendingtowards

long-termgrowthrateof~3.6%CAGR

*includesscheduledandnon-scheduledflights

Source:IATA,GMF

Propensitytotravellinkedtodevelopmentandgeography

2024yearlytripspercapita2044yearlytripspercapita

(bubblesizeproportionaltocountrypopulation)(bubblesizeproportionaltocountrypopulation)

GDPpercapita(purchasingpowerparity$-2019)

Source:OAG,AirbusGMF2025

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

018

*Europeisbasedongeographicaldefinition

019

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

Source:Sabre,AirbusGMF2025

Top20trafficflowsin2044

Top20trafficflowsin2044

DomesticPRC

1

DomesticUSA

2

Intra-WesternEurope

3

DomesticIndia

4

WesternEurope-USA

5

DomesticAsiaEmerging

6

WesternEurope-MiddleEast

7

AsiaDeveloped-AsiaEmerging

8

IndianSubcontinent-MiddleEast

9

AsiaEmerging-PRC

10

CentralEurope-WesternEurope

11

AsiaEmerging-MiddleEast

12

AsiaDeveloped-PRC

13

AsiaDeveloped-USA

14

AsiaDeveloped-WesternEurope

15

Intra-MiddleEast

16

WesternEurope-SouthAmerica

17

MiddleEast-USA

18

Intra-AsiaDeveloped

19

DomesticBrazil

20

5.4%

1.6%

1.7%

8.9%

2.1%

7.6%

4.8%

5.8%

8.5%

3.8%

5.3%

7.2%

2.4%

3.8%

5.2%

3.1%

3.8%

mm3.7%

4.6%

3.8%

20242044

%CAGR2024-2044

02505007501,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,2502,5002,7503,000AnnualRPK(billions)

020

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

Source:Sabre,AirbusGMF2025

Modesttrafficgrowthinmatureflows…

Top20trafficflowsin2044

DomesticUSA

2

Intra-WesternEurope

3

WesternEurope-USA

5

WesternEurope-MiddleEast

7

CentralEurope-WesternEurope

11

AsiaDeveloped-USA

14

AsiaDeveloped-WesternEurope

15

WesternEurope-SouthAmerica

17

MiddleEast-USA

18

Intra-AsiaDeveloped

19

1.6%

1.7%

2.1%

3.8%

3.8%

2.4%

3.8%

3.1%

%CAGR2024-2044

3.8%

2024

2044

3.7%

02505007501,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,2502,5002,7503,000AnnualRPK(billions)

makesnewlongthinroutesviable

Morethan250

POTENTIAL

TRANS-ASIA

ROUTES

newroutescreatedthankstotheA220.

A220capableofUS

transcon,Europe-MiddleEast/CentralAsia,

Trans-Asiaoperations

Provingitsversatility

operatingfromregionaltolongrangemissions

NewroutescreatedthankstotheA220,over1000NM

021GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

InservicesinceOctober2024

DublinLondon

Budapest

Minneapolis

Toronto

Cleveland

Indianapolis

Milan

Madrid

Boston

Washington,D.C.

7XLRsinserviceflyinglongrangewithIberia,AerLingusandWizzAir

Nashville

Mumbai

SanJuan

Fortaleza

Jeddah

1,361FlightCycles

8,077FlightHours

Recife

4thofJune2025

Publiclyannouncedoralreadyflownroutes

June2025

022GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

NetworkopportunitiesforA321XLR

NorthAmericatoEurope

NorthAmerica

toSouthAmerica

India

toEurope

AustraliatoAsia

Source:OAG,Sabre,AirbusGMF2025

023GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

8.9%

7.6%

4.8%

5.8%

8.5%

5.3%

7.2%

5.2%

…andstrongertrafficgrowthinAsiaandMiddleEast,ledbyIndiaandPRC

Top20trafficflowsin2044

5.4%

DomesticPRC

1

DomesticIndia

4

DomesticAsiaEmerging

6

AsiaDeveloped-AsiaEmerging

8

IndianSubcontinent-MiddleEast

9

AsiaEmerging-PRC

10

AsiaEmerging-MiddleEast

12

AsiaDeveloped-PRC

13

Intra-MiddleEast

16

%CAGR2024-2044

20242044

4.6%

DomesticBrazil20

02505007501,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,2502,5002,7503,000AnnualRPK(billions)

Source:Sabre,AirbusGMF2025

024GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

A33oneoplayingakeyroleinrapidlydevelopingaviationmarkets

025

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

ContinuousmarketshifttowardAsiaandMiddleEast

RegionalshareofASKs

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

ASIA-PACIFIC

ASIA-PACIFIC

ASIA-PACIFIC

AFRICA&MIDDLE-EAST

AFRICA&MIDDLE-EAST

EUROPE&CIS

AFRICA&MIDDLE-EAST

EUROPE&CIS

EUROPE&CIS

AMERICAS

AMERICAS

AMERICAS

200420242044

Source:OAG,AirbusGMF2025

026GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

Source:OAG,AirbusGMF2025

Unrivalledrangecapability,uniqueflexibility

027GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025Source:OAG2024,2025+FutureSYD-LHRrouteannouncedbyQantas

Demandfor43,420passengerandfreighteraircraft

Fleetinservice

(#aircraft)

24,480

GROW

NEW

DELIVERIES

24,730

18,930

REPLACE

STAY

43,420

5,800

20242044

Notes:Passengeraircraft(≥100seats),FreighterswithapayIoadabove10t

Figuresroundedtonearest10|totaIsroundedseparateIy

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

028

Source:AirbusGMF2025,CiriumMay25

FIeetwiIIalmost

doubleinthenext20years

HigherproportionofnewdeIiveries(~44%)wiII

replaceoIder,IessfueI-efficientaircraft

Demandfor42,450newpassengeraircraftbetween2025and2044

Source:AirbusGMF2025

Notes:Passengeraircraftonly(≥100seats)

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

029

Figuresroundedtonearest10|totalsroundedseparately

Demandfor~34,250newpassengerSingleAisleaircraft

Fleetinservice

19,290

34,250

GROW

OPENDEMAND

NEW

DELIVERIES

17,970

14,960

REPLACE

BACKLOG

STAY

(#aircraft)

20,050

14,190

3,010

20242044

Source:CiriumMay2025,AirbusGMF2025

Notes:Passengeraircraft(≥100seats)

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

030

Figuresroundedtonearest10|totalsroundedseparately

Demandfor~8,200newpassengerwidebodyaircraft

Fleetinservice

(#aircraft)

4,120

GROW

REPLACE

8,200

NEW

DELIVERIES

5,630

OPENDEMAND

BACKLOG

4,410

4,070

2,560

340

STAY

20242044

Source:CiriumMay2025,AirbusGMF2025

Notes:Passengeraircraft(≥100seats)

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

031

Figuresroundedtonearest10|totalsroundedseparately

Demandfor43,420newpassengerandfreighteraircraft

TypicallySingleAisle

34,250aircraft

shareoftotalnewdeliveries

~79%

TypicallyWidebody

9,170~21%

aircraft(inc.970

new-buildfreighters)

shareoftotalnewdeliveries

Source:AirbusGMF2025

GLOBALMARKETFORECAST2025

032

Note:Passengeraircraft(≥100seats)&Freighters(≥10tonspayload)|Figuresroundedtonearest10

“

Airtransportdriven

bypeopleandbusiness

Takeaways

PassengerTraffic

LongTermCAGR

3.6%

Fleetinservice