公司理财：原理与实践（第8版）课件 第2章 资本市场、有效市场与比率分析

CorporatefinanceEighthEditionChapter2Capitalmarkets,market

efficiencyandratioanalysisInternalandexternalfinanceInternalfinance:RetainedearningsEfficiencysavingsExternalfinance:EquityDebtLeasingInternalandexternalfinance(continued)Balancebetweensourcesisinfluencedby:companyattitudetoriskandreturn;availabilityandamountofretainedearnings;accesstocapitalmarkets;costsofdifferentsourcesoffinance;dividendpolicy;investmentopportunities;historicalposition.FinancialassetsGiltsTreasurybillsPreferencesharesOrdinaryEquityBondsLoanstockanddebenturesConvertiblesWarrantsPrimaryandsecondarymarketsPrimarymarket:fornewissuesofsharesSecondarymarket:‘second-handmarket’IncreasesliquidityofsharesGeneratespricinginformationBarometerofcorporateperformanceLondonStockExchangemarkets:FullmarketAlternativeinvestmentmarket(AIM)Whatismarketefficiency?Operationalefficiency(lowtransactioncosts)Informationalefficiency(lowcost,access)Pricingefficiency(pricesofsharesreflectallrelevantavailableinformation)Allocationalefficiency(fundsgotomostefficient/profitablecompanies)MarketefficiencyconcernedwithpricingefficiencyPerfectcapitalmarketNotaxesortransactioncostsFreeentryandexitManybuyersandsellersParticipantsareutilitymaximisersInformationiscostlessandfreelyavailablePerfectversusefficientmarketMarketdoesnothavetobeperfecttobeefficient.Requirementsforefficientmarket:Lowtransactioncosts/taxesInformationalefficiency,i.e.informationavailableatlowcostNooneparticipantdominatesthemarket‘Beating’themarketTwoapproachesforinvestorsattemptingtobeatthemarket:Chartism/technicalanalysis:drawingchartsandusingregressionanalysistopredictpricesbasedonpasttrends.Fundamentalanalysis:usingfinancialdatatopredict‘fair’priceofshare–usingaccounts,sharepricingmodelsandsoon.Efficientmarkethypothesis‘Thepriceofasecurityfullyandfairlyreflectsallavailableandrelevantinformation’–

Fama,1970.Academicsdefinethree‘strengths’ofmarketefficiencyandtestthemarketusingempiricaldata.WeakformefficiencyDefinition:Securitypricesreflectspastinformationonly.Implication:Makingabnormalreturnsusingtradingrulesbasedonstudyingpastsharepricesisnotpossible.Empiricalevidence:Randomwalkhypothesis.Serialcorrelationtests,runtestsandfiltertests.Semi-strongformefficiencyDefinition:Securitypricesreflectpastinformationandallpubliclyavailableinformation.Implication:Itisnotpossibletomakeabnormalreturnsbystudyingcompanyaccounts,andsoon.Empiricalevidence:Stocksplits.Anticipationofannualreportsandmergers.StrongformefficiencyDefinition:Securitypricesreflectall

availableinformation,publiclyavailableornot.Implication:Itisnotpossibletomake

anyabnormalreturns.Empiricalevidence:Whyisinsiderdealingillegal?Doprofessionalanalystsbeatthemarket?ImplicationsofEMHPointlesspayingforexpensiveresearch.Nopointstudyingfinancialstatements.Nobargainsonthestockmarket.Buyandholdstrategyisbest.Manipulationofaccountsispointless.Timingofnewissuesisnotcritical.Managersjustneedtofocusonmakingthebestinvestmentdecisions,sincemarketcapitalisationwillincreasebyNPVofproject.Marketefficiency?Empiricalevidencesupportssemi-strongformofefficientmarkethypothesis.Cansophisticatedinvestorsusingexpertadvisorsanddealingsoftwareexploitmarketimperfectionstomakeabnormalreturns?Efficiencyisgeneratedbytheactivitiesofanalystswhodisbelievethehypothesis.Whatare‘normal’or‘expected’returns?Marketefficiency?(continued)Anomaliesinsharepricebehaviour:CalendareffectsSizeanomaliesValueeffectsSpeculativebubblesBehaviouralfinance:Investorscanmakeirrationaldecisionswhichmayhavepersistingeffects.ScopeofratioanalysisRatioanalysiscanbeappliedtofinancialstatementsandsimilardatainorderto:assessperformanceofacompany;determinewhethercompanyissolventandfinanciallyhealthy;assessriskduetoitsfinancialstructure;analysereturnsgeneratedforshareholdersandotherinterestedparties.UsersofratioanalysisInvestors(financialinstitutionsandordinaryinvestors)needtomakedecisionsaboutbuyingandsellingcompanysecurities.Companymanagersneedtoassessdivisionalandcompanyperformanceagainstpreviousyears’andcompetitors’performance.Financialinstitutionsneedtomakedecisionsaboutwhethertheyshouldprovidefinancetoacompany.ImportanceofbenchmarksRatiosmustbecomparedwithbenchmarksPre-determinedtargetsforratiossetbythecompany,i.e.ROCE>16%.Ratiosofcompaniesofsimilarsizewhoareengagedinsimilarbusinessactivities.Averageratiosforbusinesssectorinwhichacompanyoperates,i.e.industrialnorms.Ratiosforthecompanyfrompreviousyears,withdataadjustedforinflationifnecessary.

RatioanalysisFivebroadratiocategories:ProfitabilityratiosActivityratiosLiquidityratiosGearingratiosInvestorratiosProfitabilityratiosReturnoncapitalemployed(ROCE)(%):

profitbeforeinterestandtax×100capitalemployedNetprofitmargin(%):

profitbeforeinterestandtax×100 revenueorturnoverProfitabilityratios(continued)Netassetturnover(times):

revenueorturnover capitalemployedGrossprofitmargin(%):

grossprofit×100 revenueorturnoverActivityratiosReceivables’ratioorreceivablesdays:

tradereceivables×365 creditsalesPayables’ratioorpayablesdays:

tradepayables×365 costofsalesActivityratios(continued)Inventorydays:

inventoryorstock×365 costofsalesCashconversioncycle(days): Inventorydays+receivablesdays –payablesdays.Activityratios(continued)Non-currentassetturnover(times):

revenueorturnover non-currentassetsSales/networkingcapital(times):

revenueorturnover netcurrentassetsLiquidityratiosCurrentratio(times):currentassetscurrentliabilitiesQuickratio(times):currentassetslessinventorycurrentliabilitiesGearingratiosCapitalgearingratio(%):

long-termdebtcapital×100capitalemployedDebt/equityratio(%):

long-termdebtcapital×100sharecapitalandreservesGearingratios(continued)Interestcoverageratio(times):profitbeforeinterestandtaxinterestchargesInvestorratiosReturnonequity(ROE)(%):earningsaftertaxandpreferencedividendsshareholders’fundsDividendpershare(pence):totaldividendpaidtoordinaryshareholdersnumberofissuedordinarysharesInvestorratios(continued)Earningspershare(EPS)(pence):earningsaftertaxandpreferencedividendsnumberofissuedordinarysharesDividendcover(times):earningspersharedividendpershareInvestorratios(continued)Price/earningsratio(P/Eratio)(times):marketpriceofshareearningspersharePayoutratio(%):

totaldividendpaidtoordinaryshareholders

×100earningsaftertaxandpreferencedividendsInvestorratios(continued)Dividendyield(%):dividendpershare×100marketpriceofshareEarningsyield(%):earningspershare×100marketpriceofshareProblemswithratioanalysisFinancialpositionstatementisasnapshotofacompany’spositionononedayoftheyear.Itcanbedifficulttofindasimilarcompanyinordertomakeintercompanycomparisons.Maybecreativeaccounting,e.g.off-balance-sheetfinancing,complexfinan