2025年守护地球：环境压力加剧下的人工智能赋能之道研究报告（英文版）

DAI

FORAPLANETUNDER

PRESSURETitle:AI

for

a

Planet

Under

PressureAuthors:Victor

Galaz,1,2*

Maria

Schewenius,1,2,6*

Jonathan

F.Donges,1,3,5

Ingo

Fetzer,1,2,7

Erik

Zhivkoplias,1

Wolfram

Bar-fuss,8,9,10

LouisDelannoy,1,11,12

LanWang-Erlandsson,1,3

MaximilianGelbrecht,3,13

JobstHeitzig,3

JonasHentati-Sundberg,14

ChristopherKennedy,15

NieljaKnecht,1

RomiLotcheris,1

MiguelMahecha,16

AndrewMerrie,1,24

DavidMontero,16

TimonMcPhearson,1,15

AhmedMustafa,15

MagnusNyström,1

DrewPurves,4

JuanC.Rocha,1

MasahiroRyo,17,18

Claudiavander

Salm,4

Samuel

T.Segun,19

AnnaB.Stephenson,20

Elizabeth

Tellman,21

Felipe

Tobar,22

AliceVadrot23*EditorsAffiliations:1.StockholmResilienceCentre,StockholmUniversity,Sweden2.BeijerInstituteofEcologicalEconomics,RoyalSwedishAcademyofSciences,Sweden3.PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch(PIK),Memberof

theLeibnizAssociation,Germany4.GoogleDeepMind,United

Kingdom5.MaxPlanckInstituteofGeoanthropology,Germany6.FacultyofEngineeringandSustainableDevelopment,UniversityofGävle,Sweden7.BolinCentreforClimateResearch,Stockholm,Sweden8.

TransdisciplinaryResearchAreaSustainableFutures,UniversityofBonn,Germany9.CenterforDevelopmentResearch,UniversityofBonn,Germany10.InstituteforFoodandResourceEconomics,UniversityofBonn,Germany11.GlobalEconomicDynamicsand

theBiosphere,RoyalSwedishAcademyofSciences,Sweden12.SwedishCentreforImpactsofClimateExtremes(climes),UppsalaUniversity,Sweden13.SchoolofEngineeringandDesign,

TechnicalUniversityofMunich,Germany14.SwedishUniversityofAgriculturalSciences,Sweden15.Urban

Systems

Lab,New

York

University,USA16.InstituteforEarthSystemScienceandRemoteSensing,LeipzigUniversity,Germany17.BrandenburgUniversityofTechnologyCottbus-Senftenberg,Germany18.LeibnizCentreforAgriculturalLandscapeResearch(ZALF),Germany19.Global

Center

on

AI

Governance,Canada20.HighMeadowsEnvironmentalInstitute,PrincetonUniversity,USA21.NelsonInstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofWisconsin-Madison,USA22.DepartmentofMathematics,ImperialCollegeLondon,UnitedKingdom23.DepartmentofPoliticalSciences,UniversityofVienna,Austria24.

Planethon,SwedenSuggestedcitationforthefullreport:Galaz,V.andM.Schewenius(eds,2025).

AIfor

aPlanetUnder

Pressure.StockholmResilienceCentre,PotsdamInstitute

forClimateImpactResearch.Stockholm.Report.Online:

/abs/2510.24373.Suggestedcitationforindividualchaptersinreport(e.g.):Wang-Erlandsson,L.,N.Knecht,R.Lotcheris,I.Fetzer.“Securing

Freshwater

for

All”in

Galaz,V.and

M.Schewenius(eds,

2025).

AIfor

aPlanetUnder

Pressure.StockholmResilienceCentre,PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch.Stockholm.Report.ISBN:978-91-89107-61-8e-book

ISBN:978-91-89107-62-5Graphics

and

layout:Jerker

Lokrantz/AzoteNovember2025Theproductionof

thisreportwassupportedbyadditionalfundingfrom

theBeijerInstituteofEcologicalEconomics(RoyalSwedishAcademyof

Sciences),andGthroughClimateIQattheUrbanSystemsLabatNewYorkUniversity(USA).Artificialintelligence(AI)isalreadydrivingscien-

tificbreakthroughsinavarietyofresearchfields,

rangingfrom

thelifesciences

tomathematics.

Thisraisesacriticalquestion:canAIbeapplied

bothresponsiblyandeffectively

toaddresscomplexandinterconnectedsustainabilitychallenges?

Thesechallengesincludeclimate

change,biodiversityloss,oceanacidification,

andothertransformationsofourlivingplanet.Eachof

theseposesseriousrisks

tosocietalstability,humanhealthandwell-being,and

theabilityofpresentandfuturegenerationstothrive

withinplanetaryboundaries.Here,scienceplays

afundamentalroleintwoways.First,byhelping

acceleratechangesandinnovations

thatmove

usclosertoa

justandsafefutureforall.Second,

bymakingsure

thatAIisdevelopedandusedin

ways

thatneitherexacerbatesinequalities,norincreasesplanetarypressures.Thisreportexploresthepotentialandlimitations

ofusingAIasaresearchmethodineightissue

areas:Preparingfor

aFuture

of

InterconnectedShocks,UnderstandingaComplex

Earth

System,

StewardingOur

BluePlanet,

SecuringFreshwater

for

All,EnhancingNature’sContributions

to

Peo-

ple,Prosperingonan

Urban

Planet,

Improving

Sus-

tainability

ScienceCommunication,andCollective

Decisionsfor

aPlanetUnder

Pressure.

Together,

theseareasreflectarangeofcomplexresearch

challengeswherepeople,nature,andclimateinterplay.By

takingsuchanintegratedapproach,

ourworkstandsoutwithinthegrowingland-scapeof“AIforScience,”andbringstogether“AI

forClimate”and“AIforNature”initiatives.Ourresultsbuildoniteratedexpertdialoguesandassessments,asystematicAI-supportedliteratureoverviewincludingover8,500academ-icpublications,andexpertdeep-divesintoeach

specificissuearea.Inconclusion,weshow

that:(1)AIoffersvastpotentialtoacceleratepro-gressacross

thesustainabilitysciences.(2)AI

cansharpenourdecision-makingandclarifycomplexenvironmentalchallengesforresearch-

ersandthepublicalike.(3)However,realizing

thispromiserequirescarefulnavigationof

the

risks,includingAI’sownenvironmentalfootprint,

inherentbiases,and

thechallengeofunequalaccess.(4)Despite

thesehurdles,responsible

andethicalapplicationsofAIinsustainability

researcharenot

justapossibility—theyarean

urgentnecessity.(5)Pioneering

theseusescan

unlockthebreakthroughsweneedtobuildamoresustainablefuture.AdvancingfromthepotentialofAItoitsrespon-

sibleapplicationinresearch

thatbenefitsbothpeopleandtheplanetwillrequireabalancebetweenurgencyandinnovation,andacom-mitmenttoethicalandinclusivepractices.Our

concludingrecommendations—addressed

toresearchers,policymakers,fundingagencies,andphilanthropicorganizations—outlinepracti-

calstepsforachieving

thisbalance.Leveraging

powerfulcompute(i.e.,computationalpower)andnewmethodologies,advancementsinAIen-

able

thediscoveryofpatternsandrelationships

thatwerepreviouslytoocomplex,ortoointer-disciplinary,

to

tackle.Asexperiencehasshown,

AIhasthepotentialtoopenupnew,excitingareasofinquiryforsustainabilityresearch.It’san

opportunitytheworldcannotaffordtomiss.Itis

nowup

tosustainabilityresearchers,companies,

technologyentrepreneurs,anddecision-makers

tocarefullyshapeAIdevelopmentintheservice

ofa

justandsafe

future.ExecutiveSummary3UseofAIinWritingThis

ReportL.W-E.used

Grammarly

for

editing

the

Freshwater

chapter.N.K.has

used

ChatGPT

to

rephrase

andshortenpartsofthedraftversionoftheFreshwaterchapter.E.Z.usedGemini2.5Flashforgram-marandsyntaxchecksofallwritingcontributionstothereportchapters;GitHubCopilotassistedwithscriptprogrammingtoimprovethevisualappealoftheplotsintheliteraturereviewandconclu-

sionchapters;andusedDeepSeek-R1-7bforanalysisofthecollectedliterature,asdescribedinthe

correspondingchapter.A.V.usedGeminiforsearchofrelevantliterature(togetherwithScopus)and

editing.L.D.usedChatGPT(4o)forspellcheckingandrewordingindividualsentences,uponwhich

hereviewedandeditedthecontent.W.B.usedGrammarlyforlanguageediting.M.R.usedChatGPT

torefinetheacademiclanguage.M.S.usedCopilotinMicrosoft365torevisesomeof

thesentenc-

esinthefullreporttoimprovereadability.C.S.usedGeminitoprovideinputtothesummaryofthe

fullreport,andworkedwithV.G.andotherchapterauthorswiththereportsummary,conclusions,andrecommendations.FundingWorkshop,travelcosts,researchassistancetime,anddesignandlay-outofthisreport,hasreceived

fundingfromGoogleDeepMind.V.G.wouldliketoacknowledgefundingfromtheMarianneandMarcusWallenbergFoundation,G,andtheBeijerInstituteofEcologicalEconomics(Royal

SwedishAcademyofSciences).M.S.acknowledgesfinancialsupportfromStockholmResilience

Centre,theBeijerInstituteofEcologicalEconomics,andG.L.W-E.acknowledgesfundingfrom

Formas(2022-02089,2023-00321),and

the

IKEA

Foundation.J.R.acknowledges

supportfrom

Vetenskapsrådet

grant2022-04122.I.F.acknowledges

funding

from

the

IKEA

Foundation.A.V.

acknowledgesfundingfromtheEuropeanResearchCouncil(ERC),GrantagreementNo101124903

–TwinPolitics–ERC-2024-CoG.M.M.acknowledges

funding

from

ML4Earth

by

DLR.R.L.ac-knowledgesfundingfromFormas(2022-02089).L.D.

thanks

theErling-PerssonFamilyFoundation

forfunding.M.G.acknowledgesfoundingfrom

theVolkswagenFoundationunder

theFreigeistprogram.W.B.acknowledgesfinancialsupportreceivedfromtheCooperativeAIFoundation.T.M.

acknowledgesfinancialsupportfromG.J.H-S.acknowledgesfundingfromMarcusandMarianne

Wallenberg

foundation2018-0093,and

Vetenskapsrådet2021-03892.M.R.gratefullyacknowledgessupportfromtheproject“KIundCitizenSciencegestütztesMonitoringvonzertifi-zierten

Biodiversitätsprojekten(KICS-Zert)”(16LW0441),funded

by

BMFTR,Germany.A.S.receivedsupportfromWilliamH.MillerIII,thePrincetonUniversityDeanforResearch,theHighMeadows

EnvironmentalInstitute,andtheArmyResearchOfficeundergrantnumberW911NF2410126.CompetingInterestsD.P.and

C.S.are

both

employed

by

Google

DeepMind.F.T.has

received

funding

from

Google

Re-searchbetween2020and2024throughtheprogrammes:LatinAmericaResearchAwards(LARA),AI

for

Social

Good,and

the

Award

for

Inclusion

Research

(AIR).T.M.,A.M.,V.G.and

M.S.receivefinancialsupportfromG.V.G.hasalsoengagedasconsultantforKlarnaandMilkywirefor

theprogram“AIforClimateResilience”.Theworkshopandtravelcosts,researchassistancetime,

anddesignandlay-outofthisreport,hasreceivedfundingfromGoogleDeepMind.ThankYouEmelieElfvengren(StockholmResilienceCentre,StockholmUniversity),hasprovidedhelpfulresearchassistanceinthecompilationofthisreport.FredrikMoberg(StockholmResilienceCentre,

StockholmUniversity,andAlbaeco)hasproofreadandcommentedonanearlyversionofthefullreport.ElinorKruse(GoogleDeepMind)contributedtoreviewingtheTaxonomychapterandthefinal

versionofthereport.MarcusLundstedt(StockholmResilienceCentre,StockholmUniversity)hasprovidedhelpfuladviceindiscussionsabout

thereport

title,keymessages,andExecutiveSummary.

ProfessionalproofreadinghasbeendonebyTheContentCreationCompany(CCC),UK.Theviews

and

conclusionsexpressed

inthisdocument

arethoseof

theauthors

and

should

not

beinterpreted

as

representingtheofficial

policies,either

expressedor

implied,of

their

respectiveorgani-

zations,the

Army

ResearchOffice,or

theU.S.Government.TheU.S.Governmentisauthorizedto

repro-

duceanddistribute

reprintsforGovernment

purposes

notwithstandingany

copyright

notation

herein.4ContentsExecutive

Summary·

.......................................................................................................................................................

·

3Introduction·.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

·

7Sustainability

Risks

and

Allocative

Harms·

..................................................................................................................

·

10A

Taxonomy

of

AI

for

the

Sustainability

Sciences·

.......................................................................................................

·

14AI

for

the

Sustainability

Sciences—A

Literature

Review·.............................................................................................

·

221Preparing

for

a

Future

of

Interconnected

Shocks·

.....................................................................................................

·

27Themebox1:

FoundationModelinginClimateandSustainabilityScience·

·

302Understanding

a

Complex

Earth

System..................................................................................................................................................

·

32Themebox2:UsingAItoDetectEarthSystemTippingPoints

·

363Stewarding

Our

Blue

Planet·

......................................................................................................................................

·

374Securing

Freshwater

for

All·

......................................................................................................................................

·415Enhancing

Nature’s

Contributions

to

People..........................................................................................................................................

·456Prospering

on

an

Urban

Planet....................................................................................................................................................................

·

50Theme

box3:ClimateIQ:Empowering

Communities

to

Prepare

for

Climate

Threats

with

Hyperlocal

Data

·

547Improving

Sustainability

Science

Communication·

...................................................................................................

·

56Theme

box4:Climate

Emotions

and

AI

·

608Collective

Decisions

for

a

Planet

Under

Pressure.................................................................................................................................

·

61Conclusions

and

Recommendations·

..........................................................................................................................

·

65Bibliographies.........................................................................................................................................................................................................·

72Appendix...................................................................................................................................................................................................................·

865IntroductionOurlivingplanetandtheclimatesystemarechangingatanunprecedentedpace.

Theyears

2023and2024werecharacterizedbyunprece-

dentedwarmingacross

theglobe.1

Oceanheat

reacheditshighestobservedlevelsin2024,2causingsevereecologicalpressureonmarinelifeandputtingcommunitieswhodependon

the

oceanfortheirfoodsecurity,wayoflife,andlive-

lihoodsatincreasedrisk.3

Childrenbornthisdec-

adeareexpectedtoexperienceanunprecedent-

ednumberofextremeweathereventsduringtheirlifetime.4

Thecontinuedlossofecosystems

andbiodiversity,5

and

the

transgressionofsev-

eralplanetaryboundaries—theestimatedsafeoperatingspaceforEarthSystemstabilityand

humanprosperity—posesevereriskstosociety.6

The

timeforforcefulandevidence-basedaction

thatsecuresasustainablefutureforallisnow.Theseprofoundchangeson

theplanetareunfoldingat

thesame

timeasanotherimpor-tantglobalshift:aperiodofrapid

technological

changeanddisruption.Sensors,autonomoussystems,artificialintelligence(AI),andothertechnologicaladvancesareon

thevergeofdisruptingmultipleaspectsofsocietiesandeconomies.Interestingly,advancesinAIarealso

contributingtonovelscientificbreakthroughs.7

Examplesincludemathematicsandcomputer

sciences,8

thepredictionofproteinstructures,9

and

thelifesciences,10

tomentiononlyafew.CouldusesofAIinsciencealsohelpusbetter

understandand

tackle

thecomplexsocial,eco-

nomic,andecologicalrepercussionsofachang-

ingplanet?

Thisreportfocuseson

thisparticular

questionwithafocusonissuesrelated

to

thesustainabilitysciences.

Thisfieldisinherentlyin-

ter-and

transdisciplinary;integrates

theanalysis

ofhumans,climate,andnature;andstrives

toin-formpeople’sandsocieties’ambitions

tosecure

asustainablefutureforall.11,12

Aswe

discusshere,AIoffersuntappedandunder-explored

potential

toaccelerate

this

typeofresearch.OurAmbitionThisreportexploresthepotentialofAIasaset

ofresearchmethodsinanumberofissueareas

associatedwith

thesustainabilitysciences.At

thecoreof

thesciencesis

theunderstandingthat

thebiosphere,withresilientecosystemsandtheservicestheyprovide,isvitalforhuman

healthandprosperity,andthathumansteward-

shipiskey

tosupportingecosystemresilience.12

Technology,

traditionallyencompassingbuiltandengineeredenvironments,butnowevermoredigital

technologies,isanintegralpartof

thesesocial-ecological-technologicalsystems,13

withfar-reachingimpact.Aswediscussin

this

report,AIisatbreakneckspeedbecomingin-creasinglyengrainedinshapinghowweunder-

standandinteractwiththeworldaroundusand,

indeed,ourlivingplanet.OurworkcomplementspreviousattemptstoexploreusesofAIforclimatechangeandrelat-

edissues(e.g.,EarthSystemforecasting14

and

biodiversitymonitoring15).Ourapproachisdelib-

eratelybroaderthanthatofothersynthesisre-

ports.Wedonotfocusondirectapplicationsof

AIorprescribespecificimplementationstrate-

giesforthepublicorprivatesectors.16,17

Instead,

weemphasize

thesystemic,cross-cuttingimplicationsofAIforsustainabilityresearch.Wechooseareaswherescienceandreal-world

actionmeet,inanattempttolayafoundation

foran“AIforSustainabilityScience”agenda.7Ourbroadsystemsperspectiveiscertainlymore

demanding.However,wearguethatit

surgently

neededtobuildthecapacityrequiredto

tackle

thesystemdynamicsofinterconnectedsus-tainabilitychallenges,especiallyinlightof

the

acceleratingpaceofplanetarychange.OurApproachThisreportistheresultofacollaborationthatstartedwithatwo-dayworkshophostedinStockholminmid-January2025,with>20scien-

tistsfromvariousscientificbackgrounds,includ-

ingecology,sustainability,social,EarthSystem,

andcomputerscience.ManyhaveexperiencefromworkinNGOs,privatecompanies,andpublicuniversitiesofapplyinganddeveloping

AImethodsintheirresearch.Ourworkhasbeen

structuredinthefollowingway:a.Editorial

teamstartedwiththeidentification

ofissueareas(NovemberandDecember2024)b.SystematiccollectionandAI-augmentedanalysisofrelevantliteratureforeachissue

area(November2024

toJune2025)c.Domainexpertanalysisandredraftingofissueareas,partlyinformedby

theidentified

literatureanalysis(January2025

toAugust

2025)d.Iterateddiscussionswithchapterauthorteamsaboutcontentofidentifiedissueare-

as(February2025

toJune2025)e.Collectivegrading,andanalysisofpotential

andgaps(July2025

toAugust

2025)Domainexpertdiscussionsandwritinghavebeenstructuredaroundthreemainsubareas,summarizedinFig.1:AIfordatacollectionand

generation;AI-assistedpredictivemodeling;and

AI-assisteddecision-making.LimitationsAlargepartofthisreportcentersaroundeight

broadissueareas.

Theareaswerepreselected

by

theeditorialteamanddiscussed,andrefor-

mulatedafterdiscussionswithcontributingparticipantsof

theworkshopandco-authors.Theissueareashavebeenchosenbecauseof

theirinter-and

transdisciplinaryfeatures,aswell

astheirimportancetopeopleinatimeofrapid

changeforourlivingplanetandclimatesystem.

Itisimportant

toacknowledge

that

theissueFig.1.FlowchartillustratingAI-assistedresearchprocesses.Adapted

from

Camps-Valls

et

al.,2025,p.2.18areasandquestionscouldhavebeenframeddifferently,andadditionalonescouldhavebeen

included.Suchchangesmighthaveinfluenced

theoutcomesandinsightspresented.

Theanalysisalsoreliesheavilyonthecompositionof

invitedco-authorsandtheirexpertise.Wehope,

however,thattheapproachchosenherecaninspirefurtheranalysesbyothers.PotentialofWorkWhyisthisreportneeded?Webelievethatwhile

AIhasmuch

tooffer

to

thesustainabilityscienc-

es,ithassofarbeenunclearhowthepotential

couldbefulfilled.AnumberofreportshaveexploredthepotentialofAIforscienceingen-

eral,43

45

butfewhaveaddressedissuesrelated

topeople,climate,nature,andtheirinteractions.

Thisissurprisingconsidering

theimportanceofastableclimatesystemandaresilientliving

planetforhumandevelopmentandwell-being,

economicprosperity,andinnovation.PredictionsPatterns&

trendsAttributionsCausalrelationsMachinelearningComputervisionExplainableAICausalinferenceDetrandingDenoisingGap-fillingRedefinehypotheses,modelimprovement/adaptionAIfordatacollectionandgenerationData(social,ecological,climate)AI-assistedpredictivemodelingAI-assisteddecision-makingInformdata

collectionand

preprocessingNaturallanguage

processingUnderstanding

ObservationsPreprocessing

ReanalysisIntegrationModeling8Theworkpresentedhereshouldbeofinterestto:•

Sustainabilityresearchers,byofferingan

overviewofusesofAIforsustainability

researchinvariousareas•AI

developers

in

the

private

sector

lookingtocontributetoresearchanddevelopmentin

areasofurgentimportance

tosociety•

Publicagenciesinterestedinassessinghow

AImaybeusedintheirworktounderstand

sustainabilitychallenges•Research

agencies

and

philanthropies

look-

ing

toassessemergingareaswherenovel

applicationsofAImethodscouldhelpdrive

scientificbreakthroughsLone

Thomasky&Bits&Bäume/better

(CCBY4.0)Artificialintelligence(AI),autonomoussystems,

andassociatedtechnologiesareincreasinglybeingpresentedasdisruptivetechnologieswith

theabilitytofundamentallychangeresearch,so-

ciety,andindustry.Howtodevelopsuchtechnol-

ogiesresponsibly,andhowtobest

monitorand

governpossiblerisks,has

ledtoagrowing

body

ofscientificliterature.Thisincludesresearchon

AIethics,1

law,2

sociology,3

allocative

harmsthat

affectvulnerablesocialgroups,4–6

andthepo-liticaleconomyofanincreasingly

digitized

and

data-drivenworld7,8—justtomentionafew.Anumberofsustainabilityrisks

and

ethical

chal-

lengesemergefromincreasedusesofAI.9

We

discusssomeofthesebelowbutwouldliketo

emphasizethatthelistisnotexhaustive.Sus-tainabilityscientists,largeresearchprograms,

andresearchcentersplanningon

usingAI

intheirworkneedtoconsidereachoftheserisks,

whilealsolookingintoother

potentialones,

and

mitigateharmfuleffects.Material,Carbon,andWater

FootprintAstheuseofAIasaconsumerproduct

increas-

es—forexampleindigitalservices

likechatbots,

andthegenerationofsyntheticcontentlikevideosandtext—sodoestheecologicalandclimatefootprintofitsunderpinning

infrastruc-

ture.Thisincludestheamountofe-waste,such

asobsoletespecializedprocessors(graphicsprocessingunits[GPUs],tensorprocessingunits

[TPUs]),datacenterinfrastructure(servers,

hard

drives,networkingequipment),andend-of-lifeAIdevices(robots,autonomousvehicles,smart

sensors).E-wasterepresentsagrowingrisk

as

it

is

known

toreleasetoxicsubstanceslikelead,

mercury,

andcadmiumintotheenvironment.Thesepol-

lutantsinfiltratesoilandwatersources,andcan

leadtosignificantecologicaldegradationand

healthrisksforcommunitiesneare-wastedis-

posalsites.10

Communitiesaffectedbye-waste

pollutionoftenlackadequatelegal

protectionoravenuesforrecourseagainstcorpor