AI吞噬世界：生成式人工智能如何重塑科技版图

AIeatstheworld

BenedictEvans

November2024

“Inmylifetime,I’veseentwodemonstrationsoftechthat

struckmeasrevolutionary:theGUIandChatGPT”

BillGates,March2023

BenedictEvans––November20242

*$150bnmarketcapinsummer1996.2024dollars.BenedictEvans––November20243

(Microsofttook20yearstoreacha$150bnvaluation*)

Source:ReutersInstitute

4

BenedictEvans––November2024

Hugeinterest

ChatGPTreachedmainstreamconsciousnesswithunprecedentedspeed

AwarenessanduseofChatGPTbycountry,May2024

HeardofbutnotusedUsed

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

DenmarkUSAUKArgentinaFranceJapan

Source:ReutersInstitute

5

BenedictEvans––November2024

Hugeinterest,limitedusesofar

Glasshalffull/halfempty-lotsofpeoplehavetriedit,butfewfoundituseful,sofar

UseofChatGPTbycountry,May2024

HeardofbutnotusedOnceortwice

Monthly

Weekly

Daily

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

DenmarkUSAUKArgentinaFranceJapan

Source:BainBenedictEvans––November20246

Hugeinterest,limitedusesofar

Enterprisesoftwaretakestime,andcomewithearlydisappointments

Development/Pilot60%

Production

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

EnterpriseusecaseadoptionratesforgenerativeAI,October2023&February2024

SoftwareCustomer

service

Marketing

Knowledgeworkers

OperationsIT

Finance

SalesHR

Legal

“Waitaminute?”

Aninvestmentsurgeaheadofaprovenmarketpromptstheobviousquestions

BenedictEvans––November20247

Welcometothehypecycle?

Italwaystakestimetoreachthe“PleacomofProductity”

BenedictEvans––November20248

BenedictEvans––November20249

Beyondthenoise-thenextplatformshift

Afterthewebandsmartphones,alltechgetsbuiltaroundgenerativeAI

SmartphonesCloud

PCsSQL

Web

Mainframes

GenerativeAI

OpenSource

BenedictEvans––November202410

Buteverythingiswideopen

Wedon’tknowtheanswers-we’restillworkingoutthequestions

Howfarwillthisscale?

Howdowedeploythis?

Howisthisuseful?

BenedictEvans––November202411

Howfarwillthisscale?

BenedictEvans––November202412

Foundationalquestion:willLLMskeepscaling?

Wegottheseresultsbyusingmoreandmoredataandcompute-willthatkeepworking?

Scalingwill

keepworking?

LLMsdo

‘everything’

Sofar:

Moredata+

morecompute=betterresults

Scalingwillslowdown?

‘Just’moresoftware

“Justgiveyourselfthe

optionthatwhat’sbeenhappeningforsixyearsnowisgoingtocontinue”

KevinScott,MicrosoftCTO

BenedictEvans––November202413

“Idon’tknowthatIwouldlookatthetrainingtrendsandextrapolatethree

ordersofmagnitudeaheadblindlyfromtoday”

SergeyBrin

Isitslowingdownrightnow?

Asuddenblip,orsomethingmore?

BenedictEvans––November202414

BenedictEvans––November202415

Scalingishard

Scalingthesemodelshaspracticalchallengesandwilltaketime,evenbeforethesciencequestions

Lead-times forGPUsandpower

Execution&engineering

Andwilltheresultsbe better?

Howmuchmoretrainingdataisthere?

BenedictEvans––November202416

We’regoingtofindout-ifonlyforFOMO

Anasymmetricbet-over-spendingcapexhaslessdownsidethanlosingthenextplatform?

“Wehavenomoat”

Source:SemiAnalysisBenedictEvans––November202417

InternalGooglememo,May2023…

BenedictEvans––November202418

“Themodelsthatareintrainingnow…arecloserincostto$1bn…andthenIthinkin2025and2026,we’llgetmoretowards$5bnor$10bn”

DarioAmodei,AnthropicCEO,April2024

BenedictEvans––November202419

“TheamountofcomputeneededtotrainLlama4willlikelybealmost10xmorethanwhatweusedtotrainLlama3-andfuturemodelswillcontinuetogrow

beyondthat”

MarkZuckerberg,July2024

Source:MetaBenedictEvans––November202420

TrainingMeta’sLlama3.1SOTAmodel

Unprecedentedcomputational(andcapital)intensity

54days

continuous

trainingtime

Largestclusters

arenowusing

100kGPUs

16,000Nvidia

H100GPUs

$30keach:

~$500m

Source:Nvidia,Intel

21

BenedictEvans––November2024

Ifthemoatiscapital…

Nvidiacan’tkeepupwithdemand-fornow(butsemiconductorsareacyclicalindustry)

Quarterlyrevenuebysegment($bn)

Nvidiadatacentre

Nvidiagaming&otherIntel

40

30

20

10

0

Mar-15Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24

Thecapexsurge

~$220bnofcapexatthebigfourin2024,up$90bnfrom2023,andallexpectmoregrowthin2025

Capex($bn)

Meta

AlphabetAWS*

Microsoft

250

200

150

100

50

0

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024e

Source:Companies,companyguidance.IncludescapitalleasesBenedictEvans––November202422

*Amazonforecasts$75bntotalcapex,‘themajority’forcloud

BenedictEvans––November2024

23

Source:Microsoft,Verizon.Includescapitalleases

Fromtheedgetothecentre

Rememberwhentelcosbuilttheinfrastructureandsoftwarehadnoassets?

Capex/sales(TTM)

Verizon

Microsoft

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Mar-10Mar-12Mar-14Mar-16Mar-18Mar-20Mar-22Mar-24

Herecomethebankers

Afloodofcapitalcreatesopportunitiesforcapitalists

BenedictEvans––November202424

BenedictEvans––November202425

Andeverythingisstillchangingunderourfeet

Allthescienceandengineeringquestionsarestillmoving

Efficiency

Trainingcost

Inferencecost

Footprint

Betterresults

Thisis

amazing!

(Nowwhat?)

Scaling!

Plusagents,

multimodal,etc

Thelasttimesoftwarehadmarginalcost

Theconsumerinternetmodelof‘launchfree,goviral,workoutrevenuelater’doesn’tworkwithtoday’sLLMcostmodel

Source:IBM

BenedictEvansNovember2024

BenedictEvans––November2024

27

Source:Companies,LMARENA

Hugeefficiencygains

Manymoremodels,manymorespecstomeasure,andallconvergingonacommodity

OpenAImodelquality(LMARENA)versuspricepermilliontokens(USD),November2024

1,400

O1Preview

GPT4o

1,300

GPT4oMini

GPT4Turbo

GPT4o

(May)

1,200

GPT4

1,100

1,000

$0$10$20$30$40

BenedictEvans––November2024

28

Source:Companies,LMARENA

The‘feeds&speeds’phaseofthemarket

Manymoremodels,manymorespecstomeasure,andallconvergingonacommodity

Modelquality(LMARENA)versuspricepermilliontokens(USD),November2024

OpenAI

AnthropicGoogle

Meta

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

$0$10$20$30$40

BenedictEvans––November2024

29

Source:Companies,LMARENA

Betterorcheaper-plusopensource

Best,or90%asgoodat5%oftheprice

Modelquality(LMARENA)versuspricepermilliontokens(USD),November2024

OpenAI

AnthropicGoogle

Meta

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

$0$10$20$30$40

“Everyoneintechisgivingsomeoneelse’sbusiness

modelawayforfree”

Meta’sopensource

Turnmodelsintocommodityinfrastructure!

BenedictEvans––November202430

“Everyoneintechisgivingsomeoneelse’sbusiness

modelawayforfree”

Apple’sedgecomputing

TurnmodelsintojustanotherAPIcall!

BenedictEvans––November202431

BenedictEvans––November202432

Thegreatmodelboomof2023-2024

Better,faster,cheaper-picktwo

Bestmodel

Bestmodelthatfitson

theedge

Andmore

andbetter

everyfew

weeks

Bestcheapermodel

BenedictEvans––November202433

“Ifanythinginthislifeiscertain,if

historyhastaughtusanything,itisthatyoucankillanyone.”

MichaelCorleone

BenedictEvans––November202434

“Ifanythinginthislifeiscertain,if

historyhastaughtusanything,itisthatyoucankillanyone.”

Semiconductorsarecyclical

Commoditytechgoestomarginalcost

BenedictEvans––November202435

“Ifanythinginthislifeiscertain,if

historyhastaughtusanything,itisthatyoucankillanyone.”

Semiconductorsarecyclical

CommoditytechgoestomarginalcostAndeverynewtechproducesabubble

BenedictEvans––November202436

Howisthisuseful?

2013:howisMachineLearninguseful?

Source:ImagenetBenedictEvans––November202437

“That’sclever…butsowhat?”

BenedictEvans––November202438

2013:howisMachineLearninguseful?What’stherightlevelofabstractiontounderstandthis?

Image

recognitionworksnow!

Thisis

pattern

recognition

Whatcanwe

turninto

pattern

recognition?

Andsodolotsofother unsolved problems

2023:whyisGenerative

MachineLearninguseful?

“That’sclever…butsowhat?”

BenedictEvans––November202439

Andwhatcan’titdo?

‘Answerthisquestion’

‘Whatdoanswerstoquestionslikethistendtolooklike?’

‘Whatwouldtheaveragepersonprobablysay?’

BenedictEvans––November202440

BenedictEvans––November2024

41

Source:DeloitteConsumerDigitalTrends,UK

Errorawarenessisstilllimited

Andtheapparentfluencyoftextoutputconcealsthenatureofthemodelbehind

2023

2024

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Thosewhoagreethat“GenerativeAIalwaysproducesfactuallyaccurateanswers”

AwareofGenAIUsedGenAI

Thosewhoagreethat“GenerativeAIresponsesareunbiased”

AwareofGenAIUsedGenAI

BenedictEvans––November202442

Handling‘errors’inaprobabilisticsystem

Isthisascienceproblem,orausecaseanddesignproblem?

Productdesign

Abstractthe

Use-cases

Makethe

modelsbetter!

(Well,duh)

Arethere‘wrong’

answers?

promptandthe

output

Areerrorseasyto

see?

Canyouusethisforgeneralsearch?

Doyouwantnavigation,orjusttheanswer?Doesitmatterifit’swrong?Canyoutell?

Howmuchpreprocessingandfilteringdoesthisneed?

(Alphabethad$56bnofFCFinthelast12months,soit’sworthfindingout)

BenedictEvans––November202443

BenedictEvans––November202444

2024:howareLLMsuseful?What’stherightlevelofabstractiontounderstandthis?

Synthesisandsummary?

Reasoning?(Notyet)

Itautomatesa

broadclassof

newthings

Yes,butwhat?

‘Predictthenexttoken!’

BenedictEvans––November202445

AIgivesyouinfiniteinterns

BenedictEvans––November202446

Canwepredicttheeffectsfromfirstprinciples?

Useful-butimaginetryingtodothisexercisefor‘theinternet’in1995

Content?

Internetmadedistribution‘free’

Costarbitrage?

Labourversus

automation

-doLLMsmake

(some)creation

‘free’?

Language?

Howdoesseamless

translationchange

theweb?Science?

Popculture?

Canwepredicttheeffectstop-down?

Imaginedoingthisfor‘theinternet’in1995Or‘mobileinternet’in2005

Source:TheLaborImpactofGenerativeAIonFirmValues,EisfeldtetalBenedictEvans––November202447

Whatwouldyouhavegotright,andwrong?

BenedictEvans––November202448

“ThejuryisstilloutoutonwhetherCopilotisusefulenoughtojustifythecost”

ChevronCIO,July2024

Doyouhavethatusecase?

"VisiCalctook20hoursofworkforsomepeopleandturneditoutin15minutes”-DanBricklin

Source:ComputerHistoryMuseumBenedictEvans––November202449

Now,imaginealawyerseeingit:”that’sveryclever,butIdon’thavethatusecase”

BenedictEvans––November202450

“Ihavethatusecase!”

Immediately,obviouslyusefulforsomeprofessionsandsomeworkflows…

Marketing

Errorseasytosee

No‘wrong’

answers

Customersupport

(Butusewithcaution)

Coding

Earlyadopters

Errorseasytosee

20-30%efficiency

gains

BenedictEvans––November2024

51

Source:Blick,Blandin&Deming

“Ihavethatusecase!”

Glasshalf-emptyorglasshalf-full?10%adoptionalreadyisgreat-butwhydo90%notfindituseful?

Employedpeople,“DoyouusegenerativeAI?”responsebyoccupation,USA,August2024

WeeklyactiveusersDailyactiveusers

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Arts/media

Science/engineering

SalesHealthOffice/admin

LegalServices

Bluecollar

TOTALM'gmentSoftwareBusiness/Educationfinance

BenedictEvans––November202452

“You’vegottostartwiththecustomerexperienceandworkbackwardstothetechnology”

SteveJobs

BenedictEvans––November202453

Howdowedeploythis?

BenedictEvans––November202454

Howdowealwaysdeploynewtechnologies?

Standardpatternsfordeployingandusingnewtechnologies

Redefinemarkets

Sometimes

(Toughto

Absorb

Makeitafeature

Innovate

Newideas,

newproducts

Boltitontothe

existingbusiness

Startupsuseitto

predict)

unbundle

BenedictEvans––November202455

IsthisanAccenturequestion?

OraBain/BCG/McKinseyquestion?ACIOquestion?CFO?CEO?

Toplineorbottomlineinnovation?

Source:Accenture

56

BenedictEvans––November2024

“What’sourAIstrategy?”

AccenturenowclaimsmoregenerativeAIrevenuethanOpenAI-butalmostallofthisisstillpilots

1,250

1,000

750

500

250

0

Accenturereportedquarterly‘generativeAIbookings’($m)

Feb-23May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24May-24Aug-24

BenedictEvans––November202457

Standardtechprocurementquestions

Howdoenterprisesalwaysdeploynewtechnology?Whatquestionsdotheyalwaysask?

Buyversus

build?

Whichusecasesfirst?

Whosebudget?

Opexor

capex?

What’sthe

EPSimpact?

Singlevendorormulti-vendor?

BenedictEvans––November2024

58

Source:GoldmanSachsCIOSurvey

Thefuturecantakealongtime

Cloudisoldandboring-butstillonly30%ofworkflows

Enterpriseworkloadsinpubliccloud

Expectedin3yearsToday

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Dec-14Dec-15Dec-16Dec-17Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Mar-23Jun-24

BenedictEvans––November2024

59

Source:MorganStanleyCIOSurvey

Thefuturecantakealongtime

AquarterofCIOshavelaunchedsomething-buthalfdon’tplananythingforatleastayear

CIOexpectedtimingforfirstLLMprojectsinproduction,August2024

2023H12024H22024H12025H220252026orlater

0%25%50%75%100%

Source:Productiv

60

BenedictEvans––November2024

Buteventually,newplatformsmeannewtools

SaaSenabledahugeexpansioninautomation,unbundlingworkflowsoutofSAP,Exceloremail

AveragenumberofSaaSappsusedperdepartment,largeenterprises

2021

2022

2023

100

75

50

25

0

OperationsInformationTechnologyEngineeringProductSalesMarketing

BenedictEvans––November202461

“Therearetwowaystomakemoney.Youcanbundle,oryoucanunbundle”

JimBarksdale

BenedictEvans––November202462

UnlesstheLLMcandothewholething?

Ifthemodelsgetgoodenough,maybewewillneedmuchlesssoftware?

Scalingwillkeepworking?LLMscando ‘everything’

Doesthiskeep

scaling?

Scalingwillslowdown?

‘Just’moresoftware

BenedictEvans––November202463

AreLLMsInfra?APIs?Platforms?ThenewUX?

WillweuselogicalsystemstocontrolLLMs,oruseLLMstocontrollogicalsystems?

LLMsarethe

entireplatform

Everything

elseisanAPI?

Doesthiskeep

scaling?

Newfeatures,

newproductsLLMsarejustanotherAPI?

BenedictEvans––November202464

“It'snotthecustomer'sjobtoknowwhattheywant”

SteveJobs

BenedictEvans––November202465

DoLLMsbreakouruse-case-discoverymodels?

Howdoentrepreneursinventnewusecasesandformsofself-expressionifeverythinghasthesameUX?

LLMsasUX

Usersforcedto

invent&imagine

DoLLMsdothewhole

thing?

Classicalsoftware

Startupsinvent&

theusecases

imaginetheuse

cases

Source:YCombinator

66

BenedictEvans––November2024

Newusecases,newunbundlers

HowmanyAIstartuparereallyabetonunbundlingbothOracleandChatGPT?

YCombinatorstartupsbyfield

OtherAI

500

400

300

200

100

0

W2015W2016W2017W2018W2019W2020W2021W2022W2023W2024

Source:AppleBenedictEvans––November202467

Sometimes,itreallyisjustafeature

“AIiswhateverdoesn’tworkyet”

BenedictEvans––November202468

‘AI’tendstoturninto‘automatic’

Astechnologymatures,itdisappears

AI!

‘Auto’

Justsoftware

‘Smart’

BenedictEvans––November202469

ThreemodelsforLLMproduct?

HowfardoLLMsenablenewfeaturesandhowmuchdotheyjustreplaceappsentirely?

Newfeatures

Newtools

Read50010ksandtellme…

Generalised

AI?

Buymeahouse

Rewritemyemail

Summarisethe

reviews

“Infromthreetoeight

yearswewillhavea

machinewiththegeneralintelligenceofanaveragehumanbeing”

MarvinMinsky,1970

BenedictEvans––November202470

“‘Intelligence’iswhatevermachineshaven'tdoneyet”

LarryTesler,1970

BenedictEvans––November202471

Perhaps,allAIquestionshaveoneoftwoanswers

Willthisjustbelikeeverythingelse?No-onereallyknows

Answer:

“Itwillworklikeeveryotherplatformshift”

Answer:

“No-oneknows”

Insertyour

questionhere…

BenedictEvans––November202472

Meanwhile…

BenedictEvans––November202473

Fromvisiontodeployment

What’salreadybig,what’sbeingbuilt,andwhatcomesnext?

Ideasfrom2010

SaaS,automation,collaboration,workflow…

Ideasfrom2000

Ideasfor2030

GenerativeAI

“Maybepeople

willbuythings

online”

Source:Apple,Meta

74

BenedictEvans––November2024

Metaisstillmetaversing

MetastillbelievesinVR&AR-it’sinvestedatleast$60bnsofar,and$17.4bninthelast12months

Quarterlyinvestment($bn)

5

4

3

2

1

0

AppleR&D,8quartersbeforeiPhonelaunchMetaRealityLabsoperatingloss,last8quarters

E-commerceisstillthere

Themostboringchartintech,withabriefexception-butthisistrillionsofdollarsofglobalvalue

E-commerceas%USretail

Addressableretail*Retail

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Mar-00Mar-05Mar-10Mar-15Mar-20Jun-24

Source:USCensus.SeasonallyadjustedBenedictEvans––November202475

*Excludingcars,carparts&fuel

Source:ONSBenedictEvans––November202476

‘Backtothetrendline’

But40%ofUKnon-foodisnowonline

E-commerceas%UKretail

Shareofnon-foodShareoftotal

Shareoffood

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Newchannels,newwinners

Sheinisontracktobethelargestpure-playapparelretaileronearth

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Largestglobalpure-playapparelretailersbyrevenue,2023($bn)

TJX*SheinInditexH&MUNIQLOGaplululemonPVHNextRalphVictoria'sAmerican

athleticaLaurenSecretEagle

Source:Companies,pressreportsofGMVforShein.BenedictEvans––November202477

*TJXreports$54bnincluding$9bnofhomegoods.NBAmazonhasest.$60-80bnapparelsales

Source:Shopify

78

BenedictEvans––November2024

UnbundlingAmazon

Shopifypowered$270bnofe-commerceinthelast12months-35%thesizeofAmazonGMV

ShopifyGMV,TTM($bn)

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Mar-15Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24

Source:Instacart

79

BenedictEvans––November2024

Breakinghabits

Thepandemicdroveastepchangeforgrocery,andInstacartnowhasa$33bnrun-rate

InstacartGTV($bn)

10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5

0.0

Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24

Source:Instacart

80

BenedictEvans––November2024

Adeliverybusiness,ora$1bnadbusiness?

AquarterofInstacartrevenueandalmostalltheFCFcomesfromadvertising

Instacartrevenue($m)

TransactionAds&Other

1,000

750

500

250

0

Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24

Source:Amazon

81

BenedictEvans––November2024

Theretailmediaboom

AmazonprobablyhasmorecashflowfromadvertisingthanfromretailorAWS

Amazonadvertisingrevenue,TTM($bn)

·'Other,predominantlyads'60Ads

50

40

30

20

10

0

Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24

Softwareeatsmedia

Newchannels,newmodels,newbundles

Revenue,TTM($bn)

100

75

50

25

0

NetflixTiktokParamountSpotifyFoxNewsCorp

DisneyYouTubeComcast*Warner

Discovery

Source:Companies,pressreportsforTikTokBenedictEvans––November202482

*Mediadivisiononly

Source:Ampere,companies

83

BenedictEvans––November2024

Bigfish,littlefis