bcg -全球人才流动正在放缓并发生转变 Global Talent Mobility Is Slowing and Shifting

GlobalTalentMobilityIsSlowingandShifting

BCGTOPTALENTTRACKER|Q42025

BCG’sTopTalentTrackertakesthepulseofthe

world’stalent,helping

leadersmapthelocationchoicesofmorethan

210millionhighlyskilledpeopleglobally.

Newinthisedition:ourfirstlookatthetoptenuniversitiesproducingglobalAItalent.

Forthefirsttimesince2020,theglobal

mobilityofhighlyskilledprofessionals

declined.Asofend-August2025,mobilityhadfallenby8.5%yearayear.

About2.4millionhighlyskilledworkers(1.12%ofatrackedpoolof214million)

relocatedacrossborders—some220,000fewerthanlastyear.

Theslowdownreflectstightermigration

policiesinmajoreconomies(notablyCanadaandtheUK),economicuncertainty,and

weakerhiringinmanymajoreconomies.

TheUSremainsdominant,witha

2.4-percentage-pointriseinmarketshare,

whiletraditionalhubsinEuropelostshare.(Forexample,GermanysawaslightdeclineinAImarketshareandnomeaningfulgainsinhighlyskilledorSTEMtalent.Thisreflects

broadereconomicstagnationandthe

EU-widechallengeofretainingandattractingtoptalent.)Emerginghubs—particularlytheUAEandSaudiArabia—aresurging:the

UAEaloneattractedabout178,000highlyskilledprofessionals,adding0.8pointsinshareandrisingtosecondplaceforSTEMtalent,surpassingCanadaandtheUK.

Thecompetitionfortheworld’sbestand

brightestremainsdynamic.TheUAEnow

ranksamongthetopthreedestinationsforoverall,STEM,andAItalent—markinga

remarkableglobalascent,withSaudiArabiafollowingclosely.

Private-sectorleadersseekingworld-class

talentshouldlooktoournewlistoften

stepping-stoneinstitutions—theuniversities,someunexpected,thathaveproducedthe

mostgloballymobileAIgraduates.

Opennesstoglobaltalentislinkedtonationalandbusinessleadership

Talentopennessdrivescountry-levelproductivity……andleadershipintechnologyandbusiness

1,000,000

10,000

100

1

INCOME(GDP/CAPITAONALOGARITHMICSCALE)

1009080706050403020100OPENNESSTOGLOBALTALENT(RANK)1

Sources:AustralianPolicyInstitute(ASPI);BCGanalysis.

1BCG’sGlobalTalentMigrationIndex(GTMix),whichanalyzed96countries.

2Technologyleadership:country’sshareofhigh-impactresearchacross44technologies.

3Basedonthelargest1,000publiccompaniesperCapitalIQ;BCGanalysis.

17x

morelikelytolead2

Countriesthatleadin

talentforatechnologyare

17xmorelikelytoalso

leadinthattechnology.

+1pp

morevalueperyear3

Firmsthatattractmore

globaltalentintoleadership

create1ppperyearmore

shareholdervalue.

Overall,globaltoptalentmobilityhasslowedby8.5%versustheprioryear

AItalentremainshighlymobile,however;numbersreflectincreasedupskillingonAI

HighlySkilledTalent1

–223,000

–8.5%

STEMTalent1

–37,000

–5.2%

AITalent1

+175,000

+528%2

Sources:BCGTopTalentTracker,Q42025;BCGanalysis.

Note:Seeslide11fordefinitionsorourtalentgroups.

1Last12monthsvs2024.2IncreasereflectsalargeriseinthenumberofAIexpertsworldwide.

Canada,UK,andEuropeancountriesdrivethemobilityslowdown

US,MiddleEast,andpartsofAsiaseeincreasedinflows

Changeininflows1

Highlyskilled,2024vs2025

20%

HKG

SGP

UAEINDSAU

AUS

US

JPN●。oTHA

0%MYS

CHE

SWE

DNKAUT

ESP

FRA

ITA

QATBELIRLNZL

DEU

GBR

PRT

●

–20%BRACHNNLD

POL

CAN

–40%

MEX

–40%

Sources:BCGTopTalentTracker,Q42025;BCGanalysis.

1Bubblesizedenotesabsolutechangeininflows.2Bubblesizedenotesabsolutechangeinoutflows.

Changeinoutflows2

Highlyskilled,2024vs2025

20%

IDN

●BGD

CAN

SAU

●EGY

UK

0%

–20%

GERAUS

PHLUS

UAESGP

NZL

IND

.

NLD

MYS

FRA

IRLPAK

●CHE

MEX

CHN

NGA

ITA

COL

BRA

TR

ESP

ARG

IRN

Sources:BCGTopTalentTracker,Q42025;BCGanalysis.

Highlyskilledtalent:USandMiddleEastholdstrongshares

Marketshare:Inflow

Retention

TOP10DESTINATIONS,IN%SHAREANDPPCHANGEVS2024

INFLOW/OUTFLOWOF

HIGHLYSKILLEDTALENT

US(+2.4)

19

GBR(–0.5)

8

Other(–2.2)372.4M

Highlyskilledonthemove

7

UAE(+0.8)

6

3

3

4

4

44

FRA(–0.1)

IND(+0.4)

CAN(–0.8)AUS(–0.2)

ESP(+0.4)DEU(–0.0)

SAU(–0.1)

3.5

SAU

AUS

US

UAE

JPN

DEN

2.0

CHE

CANESP

BEL

POL

1.5

DEU

SWEFIN

SGP

GBR

NLD

GRCBRA

PRT

ITA

1.0

KOR

FRA

IND

MEX

ISR

CHNTUR

RUS

PHL

EGY

NGA

BGD

PAK

0.0

0.0

8.0

2.04.05.0

Attraction

100kinflows

INFLOWOFHIGHLYSKILLEDTALENT(%)

STEMtalent:USisstillfirstandUAEisnowsecond,overtakingCanadaandUK

Marketshare:Inflow

Retention

TOP10DESTINATIONS,IN%SHAREANDPPCHANGEVS2024

INFLOW/OUTFLOWOFSTEMTALENT

US(+3.3)

Other(+0.2)

22

31

NLD(–0.5)FRA(–0.1)

AUS(–0.1)

2

2

4

5

690K

8

STEM

onthemove

7

6

56

UAE(+2.0)

GBR(–1.6)

IND(+1.4)

DEU(+0.0)

CAN(–2.5)SAU(+1.9)

4.0

SAU

AUS

US

UAE

JPN

DEU

DEN

CHE

2.0

NLD

CANPOL

ESP

BEL

FIN

SWE

SGPFRA

GBR

NGA

BGD

IND

KORPRT

GRC

1.0

PHL

ISR

CHN

ITA

MEXTUR

RUS

BRA

EGY

PAK

0.0

0.02.0

10

25Kinflows

4.06.0

Attraction

INFLOWOFSTEMTALENT(%)

Sources:BCGTopTalentTracker,Q42025;BCGanalysis.

AItalent:USretainsfirstplaceandbuildsitsleadoverEuropeancountries

Marketshare:Inflow

TOP10DESTINATIONS,IN%SHAREANDPPCHANGEVS2024

US(+2.4)

Other(–1.1)

26

23

208K

AI

onthemove

8

GBR(–0.2)

3

3

NLD(–1.1)ESP(+0.5)

3

6

4466

FRA(–0.1)

AUS(+0.9)

UAE(+3.0)DEU(–0.2)

CAN(–1.2)

IND(+1.9)

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Retention

INFLOW/OUTFLOWOFAITALENT

SAU

US

UAE

AUS

JPN

DENNLD

CHEDEU

POL

FIN

BELESP

KOR

CANGBR

SWEPRT

FRA

RUS

BRA

CHN

SGPMEX

GRC

ITA

ISRIND

TUREGY

PHL

NGABGD

PAK

10

0.0

190

2030

Attraction

10Kinflows

INFLOWOFAITALENT(%)

ThetenuniversitiesthatserveasprimesteppingstonesforglobalAItalent

AITALENTABROAD,TOTAL&%

JawaharlalNehruTechnologicalUniversity

India

17,766

69%

UniversityofMumbai

India

16,265

51%

AnnaUniversity,Chennai

India

13,893

51%

VisvesvarayaTechnologicalUniversity

India

10,470

40%

OsmaniaUniversity

India

9,655

64%

UniversityofCambridge

UK

7,733

55%

UniversityofTehran

Iran

6,196

64%

I.K.GujralPunjabTechnicalUniversity

India

2,093

44%

UniversityofCalicut

India

565

31%

MansouraUniversity

Egypt

372

22%

Total

85,008

Sources:BCGTopTalentTracker,Q42025;BCGanalysis.

Note:ThesefigurescoverallgraduationyearsandrepresentaggregatenumbersbasedonLinkedInprofiledata.

Hownations,cities,andcompaniescancompetefortalent

Immigrationstrategy

Publictalentfunds

Company-ledprograms

SCALABILITY

Private-sectorcompaniesoftenlacktheexperienceandculturalaffinitytohiretrulyglobally.ThechallengeisnotonlyoperationalinHRbutultimatelya

culturalchangethatneedstoinvolvethefullC-suite.

Labormigrationstrategyevolvesvery

dynamically,creatingnewbestpractices.Aholisticpoliticalapproachisneededaspartofa“talenttrifecta”:upskilling,techandautomation,andmigration.

THE

CHALLENGE

Inthepublicsector,thereisusuallynotonesingleownerforglobaltalentattraction

andretention,leadingtoalackofimpact.Theopportunity:Bundlingofcompetenciesandinitialseedfunding—leadingtoROIbybroadeningthetaxbase.

WHATNEEDSTOHAPPEN

Makethebusinesscaseanddesignanindustry-specificglobaltalenttoolboxthatcoverstheprocessfromendto

end—fromworkforceplanningto

recruiting,relocation,andonboarding.

Reviewtheimmigrationsystemfor

highlyskilledemployment,analyze

bottlenecksintheend-to-end

process,andlearnfrominternationalbestpractices.

Establishanagencyorteamwithacleargoal,andmandateanecosystemofrecruiters,

trainingproviders,andrelocators—aimingtoengagecompaniesinglobalhiringand

broadentheskillsandtaxbase.

Source:BCGanalysis.

Definitions

Theanalysiscovershighlyskilledtalent—thosewithatleastabachelor’sdegree.

Withinthatgroup,STEMtalentisdefinedasworkinginresearch,engineering,IT,orproductroles.AItalentisdefinedashavingatleastoneskillinartificialintelligence,generativeAI,artificialintelligenceforbusiness,largelanguagemodels,Microsoft

AzureMachineLearning,autoML,ApacheHadoop,datascience,computervision,

PyTorch,reinforcementlearning,neuralnetworks,MapReduce,orhigh-performancecomputing.Note:Thisdefinitionexcludesalotoftalentwithend-userknowledgeofAIandfocusesonthoseattheAItechnologyfrontier.

GlobalCoverage

Theanalysiscoversmorethan200countries,withaparticularfocuson34key

destinations:Australia,Bangladesh,Belgi