2025年提升非洲价值链：矿产、材料和制造业报告（英文版）-IEA国际能源署

SOUTHAFRICA2025

2

2

SOUTHAFRICA2025

SteppingUptheValueChaininAfrica

Minerals,materialsandmanufacturing

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

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SteppingUptheValueChaininAfricaAbstrac

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Abstract

ThisreportexploreskeyopportunitiesforAfricancountriestostepupthevaluechaininthegrowingglobalmarketforenergytechnologies,identifyingopportunitiesbeyondarolecentredaroundextractionandminingtoonemorefocusedonmineralbeneficiation,materialproductionandtechnologymanufacturing.TheseopportunitieswouldenableAfricatoretainagreatershareoftheeconomicvaluegeneratedacrossenergytechnologysupplychains,andwouldsimultaneouslycontributetoglobaleffortstoenhancesupplychaindiversificationandresilience.

Theeconomicbenefitsofthenewenergyeconomyarecurrentlydistributedveryunevenly.EmergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomiesotherthanChinaaccountforlessthan5%ofthevaluegeneratedfromproducingkeyenergytechnologiestoday.InAfrica,therearecurrentlyonlyasmallnumberoffacilitiesdedicatedtothebeneficiationandprocessingofcriticalmineralsandresourcesessentialforenergytechnologiesandmaterials,andonlyahandfulofplantsformanufacturingsuchtechnologies.Inlightofthis,thegovernmentofSouthAfricarequestedthattheIEAprovideinsightsintopotentialopportunitiesforsustainableindustrialisationinAfricatoinformdiscussionsattheG20meetingsinJohannesburgin2025.Thisreportexploresselectedelementsoftheseopportunitiesandpresentsstrategicconsiderationsforcountriesseekingtodiversifyandexpandtheirenergytechnologymanufacturingsectors,whichhaveparticularrelevancefortheG20.

SteppingUptheValueChaininAfricaAcknowledgements

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Acknowledgements

ThisstudywaspreparedbytheEnergyTechnologyPolicy(ETP)DivisionoftheDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks(STO)inco-operationwithotherdivisionsandofficesoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).ThestudywasdesignedanddirectedbyTimurGül,IEAChiefEnergyTechnologyOfficer.PeterLevico-ordinatedtheanalysisandtheproductionofthereport.

Themainauthorswere(inalphabeticalorder):AmritaDasgupta(leadoncriticalminerals),GyubinHwang(criticalmineralsbeneficiation),JackJaensch(leadonenergy-intensivecommodities),AgrataVerma(leadoncleanenergytechnologymanufacturing).OtherkeycontributorsincludedAlexandraHegarty,ClaraKlint,NicolasMoinierandJoyceRaboca.LizzieSayereditedthemanuscript.

ThanksalsototheIEACommunicationsandDigitalOfficefortheirhelp,particularlytoPoeliBojorquez,AstridDumondandIsabelleNonain-Semelin.

ValuablecommentsandfeedbackwereprovidedbyothercolleagueswithintheIEA,inparticularSylviaBeyer,LauraCozzi,DanDorner,TimGouldandTae-YoonKim.

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbytheIEAasaninputtotheEnergyTransitionWorkingGroupandMinisterialdiscussionsheldunderSouthAfrica’s2025G20Presidency.ThispublicationhasbeenproducedwiththefinancialassistanceoftheIEACleanEnergyTransitionsProgramme.

SteppingUptheValueChaininAfricaTableofcontents

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 6

Introduction 10

Energytechnologysupplychainsincontext 12

Newtechnologysupplychainsarebeingbuiltout 12

Geographicconcentrationposesriskstosecurity,resilienceandequity 15

Sustainableindustrialisationopportunities 18

Criticalmineralsbeneficiation 18

Productionoflow-emissions,energy-intensivecommodities 35

Cleanenergytechnologymanufacturing 50

Considerationsforindustrialstrategies 67

Domesticactionstoadvancecleantechnologymanufacturing 67

Internationalco-operationtosupportdomesticinvestmentandglobalprogress 69

Annex 71

Regionalgroupings 71

Abbreviationsandacronyms 73

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Executivesummary

Africaisendowedwithvastenergyresources-fossilfuels,butalsosolar,wind,hydro,andgeothermal-andyetenergysupplyremainslimited:

Around600millionpeopleonthecontinentlackreliableaccesstoelectricity.Thisenergygapconstrainseconomicgrowthandindustrialpotential,particularlyinruralareaswhereagricultureremainsthedominantsectorintheeconomy.AsAfricaneconomiesgrowandurbanise,thedemandforenergy-intensiveindustriesandinfrastructureisrising.Strategicinvestmentsinsustainableindustrialisationcancreateavirtuouscyclethatexpandsenergyaccessanddrivesproductivity,whichinturncanattractmoreinvestment.

Marketopportunitiesalreadyexist.Globally,thecombinedmarketvalueofsixkeycleanenergytechnologiessolarphotovoltaics(PV),wind,batteries,electricvehicles(EVs),heatpumpsandelectrolysershasmorethantripledfromlessthanUSD200billionin2015tomorethanUSD700billionin2023.Thisgrowthhasrippledthroughthesupplychain,leadingtogrowthinmarketsforrefinedcriticalmineralsnotablycopper,lithium,nickel,cobalt,graphite,andrareearthelementsthecombinedmarketvalueofwhichexceededUSD230billionin

2024.Nascentmarketsforlow-emissionsmaterialsandchemicalslikesteel,aluminiumandammoniacouldseesteepgrowthratesinthefuture,dependingonhowquicklyrelatedtechnologiesandsupplychainsdevelopoverthecomingyears.

Theeconomicrewardsassociatedwiththesesupplychainsare-asyet-distributedveryunevenlybetweencountries.Africaasawholecurrentlycaptureslessthan1%ofthevaluegeneratedfromthemanufacturingofcleanenergytechnologiesandtheircomponents.Thisisdespitesupplyinglargesharesoftheglobaldemandforkeyunprocessedcriticalmineralsaround75%ofglobalmanganese,70%ofcobalt,nearly20%oftheworldscopperthatareessentialinputstotheirproduction.Africancountrieshavethepotentialtochangethis,tappingintoopportunitiesthatcanenableeconomicgrowthandjobcreation,aswellassupportingdomesticeffortstoexpandaccesstoaffordableenergy,digitalise,anddiversifytheireconomies.ThisreportexploresthreekeyelementsoftheseopportunitiesontheAfricancontinent:criticalmineralsbeneficiation;productionoflow-emissions,energy-intensivecommodities;andcleanenergytechnologymanufacturing.

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Fromextractiontobeneficiationofcriticalminerals

Africaisalreadyamajorsuppliertotheglobalmarketformanyminerals

suchascobalt,manganese,bauxiteandplatinum-groupmetals,butalsoholdssubstantialuntappedresourcessuchasgraphiteandlithium.Asglobaldemandforcriticalmineralsrises,sowilltheirpotentialtocontributetotheeconomicgrowthofAfricanresourceholders.ProductionofmineralresourcesisalreadyavitalsourceofincomeforAfrica,representingaround8%ofgovernmentrevenuesinresource-richAfricancountries.Thepotentialeconomiccontributionofmineralproductioncanbeincreasedbymovingupthevaluechaintowardsprocessing,smeltingandrefining.

Thereareopportunitiesformineralbeneficiationacrossthecontinent.Forexample,EastAfricancountriescoulddevelopsphericalgraphiteforbatteryanodes,whileSouthAfricaandGabonhavethepotentialtoexpandproductionofhigh-puritymanganesesulphate,amaterialpoisedforhighdemand.Moroccocouldscaleupitsoutputofpurifiedphosphoricacid,andtheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoandZambiaholdsubstantialcobaltandcopperresourcesthatprovideastrongfoundationforproducingprocessedmaterials.Tappingintotheassociatedeconomicopportunitiesreliesonemerginganddevelopingeconomiessucceedinginovercomingbarrierstoleveragetheirexistingopportunitiesforcleanindustrialisationontheonehand.TheHighPotentialCaseinthisreportshowshowthiswouldincreasethemarketvalueformineralsinAfricabynearlythree-quarterscomparedwithtodayslevelstoUSD120billionby2040.Forcomparison,totalexportsofallgoodsfromAfricancountrieswerewortharoundUSD680billioncombinedin2024.

Low-emissions,energy-intensivecommoditiescouldprovideimportanteconomicreturns

SeveralcountriesinAfricaareendowedwithlow-costrenewableelectricitygenerationpotentialandthereforepotentialtoproduceelectrolytichydrogenalongsidemineraldeposits.Combiningthetwoleadstoapotentiallycompetitivepropositionforlow-emissions,energy-intensivecommodityexports,asothercountriesthatareseekingtodecarbonisetheirindustriesfacehighercostsforthesecommodities.IntheHighPotentialCase,low-emissionsironexportstoEuropeandcountriesinAsiawouldbeworthmorethanfourtimesthevalueofthesametonnageofironoreexportsattodaysprices.ThemarketsforthesecommoditiesaredeepSouthAfricaalonecurrentlyexportsaroundUSD6billionworthofironoreperyear;globalexportsarewortharoundUSD150billionwhich

canattractinvestmentandfinancingfortherequisiteinfrastructure,creatingpositivespilloversforotherareasofdevelopment,suchasprovidingenergyaccess.

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Low-costrenewableelectricityandelectrolytichydrogencanalsofindanoutletinammoniaproduction,whichistheprecursortoallmineralnitrogenfertiliserstoday,andhassignificantadditionalopportunitiesinnewenergyapplications,includingintheshippingandpowergenerationsectors.IntheHighPotentialCase,asurgeinammoniaproductionfromaround11Mttodayto25Mtin2035and40Mtin2050wouldenabletheAfricancontinenttoeliminateallammoniaimportsforfertiliserproductionbymid-century.Thisisaverysignificantpotentialknock-oneffectforacontinentthattodayderivesnearlyone-fifthofitsGDPfromagriculture,despitehavingsomeofthelowestratesofagriculturalproductivityintheworld.

Anexistingindustrialbasecanbefoundationalfornewindustries

Therearealsoopportunitiesinthemanufacturingofcleanenergytechnologiesthemselves.Severalcountries,particularlyinNorthAfrica,havethepotentialtoestablishafootholdintheEVandbatterymanufacturingindustries,buildingontheirexistingautomotiveindustrialbase.IntheHighPotentialCase,AfricasEVproductionwouldrisefromvirtuallyniltodaytonearly4millionunitsin2035andthenonto5millionin2050.Bymid-century,thecontinentwouldbecomeanetexporterofEVs,supplyingadomesticmarketaswellasothercountriesmostlyintheEuropeanUnion.ThecompetitivenessofthisEVexportcapacitycouldbebolsteredbyanintegratedbatterysupplychain,makingproducersprogressivelylessreliantoncomponentimports.

Africa’smineralresourceendowments,whileanimportantasset,donotconstituteaguaranteethatopportunitiestomoveupthevaluechainwillberealised.Strongmarketsignalsdomesticallyandinpotentialexportmarketsforcleanenergytechnologieswillbefoundational.However,otherfactorsthatpresentlydeterinvestmentinemergingeconomiesalsorequirestrategicconsideration,includingpoliticalandcurrencyrisks,alackofskilledworkers,poorelectricityandtransportinfrastructureandunreliableenergysupplies.Fit-for-purposeregulatoryenvironments,co-investmentmodelsandinternationalpartnershipsarekeytoreducingrisk,crowdinginprivatecapitalandcatalysinggreaterinvestment.

Thecontinent’sindustrialsuccessstories–andthoseelsewhere–showthatsteppingupthevaluechainispossibleandcanyieldsignificantbenefitsforthelocalpopulationwithrespecttolocalvalueandjobcreation,therebyleadingtopositivespilloversfordomesticinfrastructuredevelopmentandcountriesinnovationecosystems.TheestablishedcarindustriesforinternalcombustionenginevehiclesinSouthAfricaandMorocco;Nigeriasproductionofcement,fertilisersandpetrochemicals;andtheelectronicandelectricalcomponentsproducedinTunisiaandEgyptarejustafewexamplesfromthecontinent.

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Well-designedindustrialstrategiesunderpineffortstotakeastepupthevaluechain

Theselectionandextentoftheopportunitiesidentifiedinthisreportarenotintendedasprescriptionsgovernmentswillneedtobalancetheirownprioritiesastheydesigntheirindustrialstrategiesbutrathertoprovideaquantitativedescriptionofasubsetofspecificavenuesthatcouldbepursued.Robustmarketanalysis,aclearunderstandingofprojecteconomics,aswellastargetedstrategiestobuildaskilledworkforceandtechnologicalexpertisepotentiallythroughwell-designedstrategicpartnershipscanhelpunlockfurtherpotential,guidedbyanapproachtoindustrialstrategythatisdata-driven,targetedtosectorsofadvantage,andamenabletocourse-correction.

SteppingUptheValueChaininAfricaIntroduction

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Introduction

ThisreportisprovidedasaninputtodiscussionsattheG20meetingsinJohannesburgin2025,inresponsetoarequestfromthegovernmentofSouthAfricathattheIEAprovideinsightsintothepotentialforsustainableindustrialisationinAfrica.ThereportexploresthepotentialforAfricancountriestodeveloporexpandmanufacturingindustriesacrossthreekeyareasofopportunity:criticalmineralsbeneficiation;productionoflow-emissions,energy-intensivecommodities;andcleanenergytechnologymanufacturing.Itconcludeswithconsiderationsforthedesignofindustrialstrategies,includingboththoseconcerningdomesticactionsandmeasuresthatwillbenefitfrominternationalcollaborationamongG20membersandbeyond.

Alongsideaquantitativeassessmentofthescaleoftheseopportunitiesusingscenarioanalysis,thereportdrawsonanalysisofenablingconditionsthatcouldinfluencedecisionmakingoninvestmentinmanufacturingthatwasfirstpublishedinEnergyTechnologyPerspectives2024(ETP-24).Thisanalysiscomprisedanassessmentofenablingfactorsindifferentcountriesacrossthreekeydimensions thelocalbusinessenvironment,energyandtransportinfrastructure,andresourceavailabilityanddomesticmarketsinordertoidentifyspecificopportunitiestailoredtothepotentialofdifferentcountries.Theanalysisreflects

existingconditionsinacountry,andnotpossiblefuturedevelopments,suchasthoserelatedtopolicies,costsordemographics.AfulllistoftheenablingfactorsandtheindicatorsforeachfactorcanbefoundinETP-24.

Scenariosusedinthisreport

ThisreportdrawsonrecentscenarioanalysispreparedforthreeIEApublications:

EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2024

,the

WorldEnergyOutlook2024

,andthe

GlobalCriticalMineralsOutlook2025

.Itfocusesononescenarioandonecaseusedinthesereports:

TheStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS)isdesignedtoprovideasenseofthedirectionoftravelfortheglobalenergysectorbasedonadetailedreadingofenergy-relatedpoliciesthathavebeenadoptedorindicated.TheSTEPStakesintoaccountpolicyintentionsthathavenotbeencodifiedintoexistinglawsandregulations.Suchtargetsarenotautomaticallyassumedtobemet;theprospectsandtimingfortheirrealisationaresubjecttoanassessmentofrelevantmarket,infrastructureandfinancialconstraints.Thisscenarioalsotakesaccountofprojectsthathavebeen

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announcedtobuildmanufacturingcapacityforcleanenergytechnologiesandassociatedmaterialsforwhichfundshavebeencommitted,i.e.thosethathavereachedafinalinvestmentdecision.

TheintentionoftheHighPotentialCase(HPC)istoidentifypotentiallypromisingeconomicopportunitiesforemerginganddevelopingeconomiesinthecontextofcleanenergytechnologysupplychains.Forthispurpose,theHPCisbasedontwomainassumptions.First,itisassumedthatemergingmarketssucceedinovercomingbarrierstoexploitingtheirrespectivecompetitiveadvantagesbyestablishingsupportivepolicyframeworksthatcanattractinvestment,furtherenabledbyinternationalsupportmechanisms.Second,itisassumedthatglobaldemandforcleanenergytechnologiesandlow-emissionsmaterialsislargeenoughtoofferamarketfortheirproductioninemergingmarketswithoutrelyingonlowerproductionvolumesinotherregions.

SteppingUptheValueChaininAfricaEnergytechnologysupplychainsincontext

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Energytechnologysupplychainsincontext

Newtechnologysupplychainsarebeingbuiltout

TheglobalcombinedmarketforsixkeycleanenergytechnologiessolarPV,wind,batteries,EVs,heatpumpsandelectrolysersamountedtomorethanUSD700billionin2023.ThelionsshareofthisglobalmarketisheldbythePeoplesRepublicofChina(hereafterChina),whichaccountsfornearly60%,reflectingtheextentofitsdomesticcleantechnologydeployment.Advancedeconomiesaccountedforaroundone-third,whileemergingeconomiesotherthanChinaaccountedforamuchsmallershare,at5%inaggregate.ThecontinentofAfricaaccountedforlessthan1%.

Ofallthekeytechnologieslistedabove,EVsandbatteriesparticularlystandout,accountingfor65%ofthetotalmarketvaluein2023,onthebackofsignificantgrowthinelectriccarsalesinrecentyears.EVsalesreachedalmost14millionunitsin2023globally35%morethanin2022.In2024,globalsaleswentontosetnewrecords,reaching17million,or

morethanoneinfivecarssoldworldwide

.SolarPVmodulesandwindturbinesmakeupmostoftherestoftheglobalmarket.Theremarkablegrowthinglobalcapacityadditionsforthesetechnologiesnearlyfivefoldgrowthbetween2015and2023meanttheirmarketscontinuedtoregisterstronggrowth,despitethewell-publicisedcostdeclinesoverthisperiod.

Themarketforcleantechnologiesissettocontinuegrowinginthemediumterm.OnthebasisoftodayspolicysettingsasreflectedintheStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS)(seetheboxaboveforadescriptionofthescenariosusedinthisreport),themarketnearlytriplesby2035,reachingaroundUSD2trillion.IfmorecountriesweretorampupcleanenergytechnologymanufacturingandcleanenergytechnologymarketuptakeweretomovefasterasillustratedbytheHighPotentialCase(HPC)themarketforcleantechnologieswouldbelarger,offeringadditionalopportunitiesforemerginganddevelopingeconomiestoplayaneconomicroleinrelatedsupplychains.

SteppingUptheValueChaininAfricaEnergytechnologysupplychainsincontext

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Globalmanufacturinginvestmentsandmarketsizesforkeycleanenergytechnologies,historicalandintheStatedPoliciesScenarioandHighPotentialCase,2015-2035

ManufacturinginvestmentMarketsize

USDbillion

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

20222023

2015

USD0.2trillion

2023

USD0.7trillion

2035STEPSUSD2.1trillion

2035HPC

USD3.4trillion

EVs&batteriesSolarPVWindOther

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Notes:EVs=electricvehicles;STEPS=StatedPoliciesScenario;HPC=HighPotentialCase.

Thesegrowingmarketshavespurredawaveofmanufacturinginvestments,whichjumped50%tooverUSD240billionin2023,upfromaroundUSD160billionin2022.InvestmentswereledbysolarPVandbatteries,whichtogetheraccountedfor80%ofthetotalin2023.Chinaaccountedfornearlythree-quartersoftotalinvestmentin2023,withtheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUniontogetheraccountingforaroundone-fifth.India,Japan,KoreaandSoutheastAsiaaccountedformostoftherest,withvirtuallynoinvestmenttakingplaceinAfrica,norinCentralandSouthAmerica.

Demandforcleanenergytechnologiesisboostingdemandforcriticalminerals.BatterydeploymentinEVsandstorageapplicationsdrivesstrongdemandgrowthforcopper,graphite,nickelandcobalt.IntheStatedPoliciesScenario(STEPS),lithiumdemandgrowsfivefoldfromtodayto2040,whilegraphiteandnickeldemanddouble.Demandforcobaltandrareearthelementsalsogrowsstrongly,increasing50-60%by2040.Meanwhile,demandforcopper–thematerialwiththelargestestablishedmarkettoday–isprojectedtogrowby30%overthesameperiod,fuelledbygrowthinconstructionandintheelectrificationofgridsandindustrialequipment.Growingdemandforpermanentmagnets,particularlyforEVsandwindpower,booststheneedformagnetrareearths.IntheHPC,demandgrowthwouldbemorerapid,withthedemandin2040being15-45%higherthanintheSTEPSacrosskeycriticalminerals.

SteppingUptheValueChaininAfricaEnergytechnologysupplychainsincontext

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Criticalmineraldemandandshareforkeyenergyapplications,historicalandintheStatedPoliciesScenarioandHighPotentialCase,2024-2035

CopperCobaltGraphite

kt

600

450

300

150

40000

30000

20000

10000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

0

0

20242035

20242035

20242035

aSolarPVaWindaEVs&batteriesaElectricitynetworksaOtherOHPC

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Notes:EV=electricvehicle;HPC=HighPotentialCase.

IntheSTEPS,theunderlyingdriversofdemandforenergy-intensivecommoditieslikesteel,aluminiumandammoniaremainbroadlyunchangedbythegrowingmarketsforcleanenergytechnologieslikesolarPVandbatteries,relativetotoday.Demandgrowthforsteelandaluminiuminsectorslikeconstruction,transportationandpackaging,andforammoniainagricultureandexplosives,isincrementalintheSTEPS.Furthermore,inthisscenario,themethodsemployedtoproducetheseenergy-intensivecommoditiesremainlargelyunaltered.

Manycountriesandregionsare,however,lookingtotransformthemanufacturingprocessesfortheseenergy-intensivecommodities.TheHPCthereforeexplorestheglobalimplicationsofanincreaseinlow-emissions

1

productionofenergy-intensivecommoditiesasasubsetofdemandforthesecommodities,muchofwhichwillneedinvestmentinnewmanufacturingcapacity.Smallamountsoftheselow-emissionsmaterialsandchemicalscouldendupincleanenergytechnologies,buttheirmanufacturingprocessesalsoaccountforanon-trivialportionofdemandgrowthforcleantechnologies;solarPV,windandelectrolyserswouldbeusedtogeneratethelow-emissionselectricityandhydrogenusedinseverallow-emissionsproductionprocessesforthesecommodities.

IntheSTEPS,thereislimiteduptakeoflow-emissionstechnologiesintheproductionofenergy-intensivecommoditiesglobally.Evenbymid-century,thecombinedmarketforlow-emissionsammonia,aluminiumandsteelreachesjustUSD60billion,relativetoatotalmarketincludingmaterialsproducedviaconventionalprocessroutesofaroundUSD2.2trillion.IntheHPC,however,

1Inthisreportweuselow-emissionstorefertonear-zeroemissionsma