2025年10月进出口数据点评：基数扰动下的出口增速波动

附图3：10月进口金额于近五年同期中游 附图4：10月出口金额于近五年同期中上附图5：稀土10月出口同比高增 附图6：机电产品、高技术产品累计出口比长50.00% 20.00%40.00%15.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-20.00%当月环比变动当月同比变动累计环比变动累计同比变动海关总署 海关总署海关总署 海关总署附图9：10月向美国进口同比-24.7%，环比-1.6% 附图10：10月向美国出口同比-25.2%，环比+1.8%

主要国家（地区）进出口情况

主要国家（地区）出口情况海关总署 海关总附图月从美国进同比-22.8%，环比附图月与美国贸顺差同比环比+8.5%主要国家（地区）进口情况

主要国家（地区）贸易差额（出口-进口）情况海关总署 海关总署附图15：上周监测港口物吞吐量环比上升15.7% 附图16：10月周均货物吞吐量同比增长2.9%；注：上周为10.27-11.2附图月7日10Y国债活跃券收益率荡上行 附图月7日10Y国开活跃券收益率荡上行 上海国际货币经纪官网 上海国际货币经纪官网日期进口金额出口金额贸易顺差当月同比当月环比当月同比当月环比当月同比当月环比2024-02-8.1-18.86.2-27.6241.0-51.02024-03-2.122.1-7.725.9-24.042.92024-048.3-0.31.34.5-15.522.72024-052.10.27.43.424.913.22024-06-2.6-5.58.41.942.421.72024-076.63.16.9-2.37.7-13.72024-080.00.98.62.736.27.12024-090.12.32.3-1.68.8-10.72024-10-2.4-3.812.61.871.317.12024-11-4.00.76.61.040.91.72024-120.87.410.77.640.78.12025-01-16.3-19.25.9-3.465.031.32025-021.6-1.4-3.1-33.8-23.7-77.32025-03-4.315.012.245.874.5226.92025-04-0.33.98.10.633.5-6.12025-05-3.4-3.04.70.226.67.42025-061.1-1.05.83.015.711.22025-074.16.27.2-1.014.9-14.32025-081.3-1.84.40.011.84.22025-097.48.58.32.110.6-11.62025-101.0-9.6-1.1-7.1-5.9-0.4海关总署国家或地区 进出口 出口 进口 贸易差额（出口进口）附表2：10月与美国进出口总值同比减少24.7%国家或地区 进出口 出口 进口 贸易差额（出口进口）环比变动同比变动环比变动同比变动环比变动同比变动环比变动同比变动欧洲联盟-9.8%1.9%-8.6%0.9%-12.1%4.0%-4.8%-2.0%美国-1.6%-24.7%1.8%-25.2%-11.6%-22.8%8.5%-26.1%东南亚国家联盟-4.9%4.5%-0.7%11.0%-11.1%-4.6%21.4%48.9%日本-7.2%0.1%-3.6%-5.7%-10.3%5.9%46.2%-676.9%中国香港-12.3%24.6%-11.6%20.9%-17.6%70.2%-10.8%16.6%韩国-9.8%-5.6%-12.0%-13.1%-8.4%0.0%0.5%-41.2%中国台湾-9.4%-4.9%-4.8%9.8%-10.8%-9.1%13.6%16.4%澳大利亚-4.7%1.7%6.8%5.8%-11.2%-0.9%34.0%12.4%俄罗斯-1.6%-10.5%-4.1%-22.7%0.4%1.9%-19.3%-1263.8%印度-6.2%12.3%-10.6%6.7%28.7%58.1%-16.3%-0.5%英国-14.8%-6.0%-14.4%-5.2%-16.6%-9.3%-13.7%-3.9%加拿大-3.2%-20.9%2.3%-10.1%-9.4%-31.2%108.3%533.2%新西兰-11.8%-0.7%-12.1%-9.7%-11.6%7.4%9.9%-174.2%拉丁美洲-8.4%8.0%-8.8%2.1%-7.9%15.4%-15.8%-47.0%非洲-17.0%8.6%-20.8%10.5%-9.0%5.3%-31.5%17.4%海关总署出口重点商品10月9月10月末9月末当月环比变动当月同比变动累计环比变动累计同比变动农产品9,069.68,687.583,560.974,492.34.4%-1.2%12.2%1.1%水产品1,647.31,674.316,428.614,781.2-1.6%-9.9%11.1%2.1%粮食164.8147.91,394.41,229.611.4%-5.8%13.4%18.0%化工医药4,955.75,316.943,788.138,942.6-6.8%36.9%12.4%-0.1%成品油3,196.23,352.831,254.028,167.3-4.7%18.3%11.0%-12.5%中药材及中式成药96.1108.5983.7887.6-11.5%4.3%10.8%-8.6%肥料1,663.41,855.711,550.49,887.7-10.4%101.3%16.8%64.5%稀土56.759.6399.0342.3-4.8%42.9%16.6%-2.9%劳动密集型商品43,406.346,834.9488,080.9444,693.0-7.3%-14.9%9.8%-3.8%塑料制品7,737.98,293.085,698.577,964.1-6.7%-9.8%9.9%-1.0%箱包及类似容器2,056.32,166.824,842.422,786.6-5.1%-25.7%9.0%-12.9%纺织纱线、织物及其制品11,258.411,966.5117,735.0106,477.4-5.9%-9.1%10.6%0.9%服装及衣着附件11,003.512,453.2126,201.3115,208.9-11.6%-15.9%9.5%-3.8%鞋靴2,663.92,879.534,511.131,847.6-7.5%-20.9%8.4%-10.0%陶瓷产品1,456.31,473.717,444.715,989.1-1.2%-18.3%9.1%-1.2%家具及其零件4,706.04,676.951,852.347,147.40.6%-12.6%10.0%-5.6%玩具2,524.02,925.229,795.527,271.9-13.7%-31.0%9.3%-10.8%基本金属8,452.28,921.585,352.076,901.0-5.3%-13.1%11.0%-3.0%钢材6,694.77,106.767,968.761,274.8-5.8%-14.4%10.9%-2.7%未锻轧铝及铝材1,757.51,814.817,383.315,626.1-3.2%-7.7%11.2%-4.1%机电产品190,314.3207,703.81,873,141.71,682,939.2-8.4%1.3%11.3%7.8%通用机械设备4,760.75,884.856,188.551,427.9-19.1%-9.0%9.3%6.5%自动数据处理设 16,252.2备及其零部件18,134.2166,085.8149,840.4-10.4%-9.9%10.8%-1.5%手机 15,523.814,867.194,400.378,904.34.4%-16.5%19.6%-11.0%家用电器 7,409.47,730.280,915.973,508.8-4.2%-13.6%10.1%-3.4%音视频设备及其 3,298.73,576.832,375.929,078.1-7.8%4.3%11.3%5.6%零件集成电路16,698.919,047.1161,685.3145,025.8-12.3%27.0%11.5%23.7%汽车14,309.012,808.0111,441.197,122.811.7%34.1%14.7%13.4%汽车（包括底盘）6,938.37,857.679,213.472,276.9-11.7%-11.4%9.6%3.0%汽车零配件5,368.96,589.645,510.640,140.4-18.5%60.9%13.4%25.0%船舶2,524.02,755.726,629.824,106.2-8.4%12.0%10.5%9.9%液晶平板显示模组1,652.71,827.616,858.015,205.1-9.6%-1.0%10.9%6.1%医疗仪器及器械2,338.72,635.530,595.028,256.5-11.3%-31.0%8.3%-10.5%灯具、照明装置及其零件83,049.389,849.9766,454.0683,488.1-7.6%1.8%12.1%6.5%高新技术产品21,247.320,665.5190,654.5169,399.72.8%14.8%12.5%8.8%海关总署进口重点商品10月9月10月末9月末当月环比变动当月同比变动累计环比变动累计同比变动农产品17,167.619,678.5172,733.0155,566.8-12.8%7.1%11.0%-4.7%肉类（包括杂碎）2,074.32,292.019,986.817,913.6-9.5%9.1%11.6%4.8%干鲜瓜果及坚果1,334.41,838.016,537.615,199.8-27.4%19.4%8.8%1.2%粮食5,130.36,679.650,203.345,076.1-23.2%8.4%11.4%-16.6%大豆4,362.45,752.742,679.638,319.6-24.2%11.5%11.4%-6.2%食用植物油701.8732.86,870.06,166.1-4.2%16.4%11.4%13.5%化工医药37,760.238,653.0383,580.9345,786.5-2.3%-8.0%10.9%-13.1%煤及褐煤2,979.43,127.228,340.825,352.6-4.7%-27.4%11.8%-33.4%原油24,217.423,828.8245,168.5220,896.21.6%-0.5%11.0%-10.2%成品油1,898.72,171.819,809.317,930.5-12.6%-17.7%10.5%-20.8%天然气4,154.04,737.545,867.641,722.7-12.3%-22.2%9.9%-15.1%医药材及药品4,001.64,317.840,670.636,669.7-7.3%-12.9%10.9%-5.8%肥料509.2470.03,724.03,214.88.3%49.5%15.8%-1.5%稀土126.9140.71,443.61,299.3-9.9%2.1%11.1%6.9%劳动密集型商品8,606.89,558.895,031.686,421.6-10.0%-13.5%10.0%-3.7%美容化妆品及洗护用品1,213.51,485.813,599.312,385.2-18.3%-18.4%9.8%-1.6%初级形状的塑料2,991.33,265.933,031.330,038.2-8.4%-17.1%10.0%-9.0%天然及合成橡胶（包括胶乳）1,191.11,319.612,769.111,577.5-9.7%-3.7%10.3%29.1%原木及锯材829.2931.69,359.38,529.5-11.0%-12.2%9.7%-15.5%纸浆1,531.71,720.318,195.816,664.0-11.0%-14.0%9.2%-2.0%纺织纱线、织物及其制品850.0835.68,076.77,227.11.7%-4.5%11.8%-10.1%基本金属23,613.024,409.0219,294.5195,512.1-3.3%12.1%12.2%-0.6%铁矿砂及其精矿11,192.711,278.199,370.288,129.2-0.8%14.2%12.8%-10.8%铜矿砂及其精矿6,956.67,304.167,064.360,017.5-4.8%29.9%11.7%20.0%钢材801.3890.08,498.77,669.3-10.0%-15.4%10.8%-11.7%未锻轧铜及铜材4,662.44,936.944,361.339,696.1-5.6%-5.9%11.8%1.6%机电产品88,603.999,270.1844,661.5756,168.1-10.7%2.7%11.7%4.7%机床449.7489.34,849