永利澳门中场回暖但总GGR恢复乏力

图表1：澳门总博彩恢复情况：2025年10月GGR修复至2019年同期91%（百万澳门元）DICJ、图表2：澳门博彩总收入对比2019年的恢复情况（按季度）（百万澳门元）图表3：澳门VIP收入对比2019年的恢复情况（按季度）（百万澳门元）DICJ、图表4：澳门中场收入对比2019年的恢复情况（按季度）（百万澳门元）图表5：澳门老虎机收入对比2019年的恢复情况（按季度）（百万澳门元）DICJ、图表6：2025年9月访澳内地游客恢复至2019年103%的水平（人，%）图表7：2025年9月访澳香港游客恢复至2019年93%的水平（人，%）澳门统计局、图表8：2025年9月总访澳游客恢复至2019年100%的水平（人，%）图表9：2025年10-12月澳门演唱会排期Klook、大麦网、图表10：澳门博彩恢复至19年水平（%）、Bloomberg、图表11：2023年以来澳门博企EBITDA同比和环比增速（%）、Bloomberg、图表12：2019年以来澳门博彩营收同比增速（%）MacauGGRMacauGGR同比增长（%）GGR 19Q119Q219Q319Q421Q1 21Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3行业数据 -8% -22% 685%284%-13%-25%-67%-70%-46%95%436%779%421%65%24%14%6% 1% 8%13%新濠博亚4%-40%187%151%-20%-21%-73%-73%-49%54%463%774%383%69%22%15%7%12%14%12%金沙中国8%0%-5%-4%-13%10430%357%-10%-35%-66%-63%-37%160%462%792%417%44%14%3%-2%-6%0%9%永利澳门-3%-2%-21%-21%-23%breakeven315%-23%-35%-77%-71%-45%109%646%812%452%78%17%8%2%-12%2%15%美高梅中国20%26%25%5%4%1124%545%-5%-15%-58%-72%-43%131%456%879%481%83%37%14%3%-7%12%20%银河娱乐-11%-12%-11%-16%-12%1010%339%-17%-30%-73%-76%-51%87%480%908%411%59%35%16%19%14%16%21%澳博控股-5%-10%-13%-8%-33%200%160%-1%-4%-46%-61%-40%53%246%502%339%77%31%31%20%10%5%VIP 19Q119Q219Q319Q421Q1 21Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3行业数据-13%-16%-22%-23%-38%466%155%-36%-47%-77%-81%-56%77%512%919%486%68%10%11%10%1% 23%29%新濠博亚金沙中国永利澳门美高梅中国银河娱乐澳博控股-8%7%16%-6%-75%4% 3%-59%-11%-84%-79%-27%5%113%73%616%630%219%276%35%-5%29%7%54%28%30%0%-13%-7%-9%3%22%-36%-20%-9%breakevenbreakeven85%-7%-58%-67%-55%-35%216%425%-20%-2%-5%-15%27%-13%-16%-41%-39%-41%282%316%170%-50%-49%-65%-71%-68%-93%-87%-89%2304%1101%2383%97%102%64%221%-25%-22%0% 4%-34%6%30%47%47%4%-20%-28%-27%512%454%-66%-89%-50%320%492%508%1455%1352%655%514%623%-25%-16%69%44%-23%-24%-25%-27%-29%-56%-62%-91%-95%-88%-91%-79%40%49%35%4%132%52%73%86%-19%-31%-43%-28%-59%115%62%-29%-61%-42%1092%1055%-1%-14%中场 19Q119Q219Q319Q421Q1 21Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3行业数据18%21%19%9%-5%1095%441%0%-11%-63%-67%-43%100%433%780%416%68%30%15%4%0% 3%7%新濠博亚金沙中国永利澳门美高梅中国银河娱乐澳博控股9%29%22%12% 9%1771%374%594%351%798%570%-8%-11%-11%-27%-27%-72%-77%-67%-65%-72%-67%-55%75%158%122%118%95%67%526%534%528%495%469%208%1062%871%875%848%888%487%86%416%55%396%78%30%13%7%4% 12%9%13%5% 9% 3%2% 8% 7% 5%-11%5698%-36%-37%-42%-45%-40%17%4%32%9%-4%-9%1%0%12%13%-5%2670%-18%1%4%-7%-4%35%36%48%31% 22%9% 7%11%0% 4%2140%8% 5%-58%-66%-62%-66%478%400%320%82%50%21%9%18%2656%7%11%-8%57%32%13%11%6% 6%13%8% 8%12%8%-21%241%190%0%-41%-57%471%72%36%25%16%9% 6%老虎机19Q119Q219Q319Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3行业数据-26%211%187%2%112%97%165%159%0%0%0%0%32%21%9%14%2%9%10%新濠博亚-11%-14%-7%16%-10%75%136%30%-2%-40%-42%-37%60%126%203%176%17%20%9%7%9%6%8%金沙中国2%9%15%3%-35%748%216%4%-27%-43%-54%-46%307%495%960%674%43%10%5%0%-2%10%13%永利澳门-8%1%17%-6%-23%458%193%-27%-5%-65%-40%-17%79%337%210%199%37%20%35%8%-6%12%9%美高梅中国39%-7%3%-3%5%414%243%-1%-18%-42%-70%-44%78%186%582%306%51%42%21%21%-1%-1%12%银河娱乐0%6%2%-4%-42%810%386%-13%22%-67%-57%-35%131%603%748%446%78%49%35%54%22%19%11%澳博控股81%389%656%379%112%11%24%29%32%21%、Bloomberg、图表13：2020年以来澳门博彩市占率（%）新濠博亚 金沙中国 永利澳门 美高梅中国 银河娱乐 澳博控股14%12%14%12%12%12%14%13%15%14%12%12.2%12.2%12.2%12.6%12.8%14.2%13.7%13.7%12.5%20%19%18%30%18.6%21.4%20.8%20.0%20.4%20.7%19.6%18.4%17.7%18.7%17.9%17.7%19.2%18.1%20.6%16.2%19.2%20.1%19.9%17.4%16.5%8.8%14.0%8.1%12.7%11.6%11.3%14.0%14.0%13.3%14.3%13.0%14.4%15.5%14.7%14.6%16.2%17.1%16.1%14.8%15.6%15.7%16.6%14.7%7.0%.%.%.%.%13.8%13.5%12.8%12.5%9.7%12.7%12.6%13.2%13.4%13.3%13.5%14.2%12.6%12.7%13.0%12.4%11.9%21.8%17.7%21.4%24.3%25.1%21.7%22.3%21.2%25.7%26.3%25.4%27.7%26.7%26.8%25.5%24.1%24.4%24.4%23.5%22.5%22.6%47.0%22.1%24.4%18.3%17.0%17.9%16.4%16.9%18.0%14.7%14.5%15.6%14.0%15.3%14.4%14.6%14.3%14.9%14.7%14.7%15.8%15.8%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q20%20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q2、Bloomberg、图表14：永利VIP业务毛收入对比19年同期修复情况（百万美元） 图表15：永利中场业务毛收入对比19年同期修复情况（百万美元）永利公告、 永利公告、图表16：永利老虎机毛收入对比19年同期修复情况（百万美元） 图表17：永利非博彩毛收入对比19年同期修复情况（百万美元）永利公告、 永利公告、图表18：19Q3永利中国各业务收入占比 图表19：25Q3永利中国各业务收入占比老虎机业务非博彩业务12%非博彩业务12%中场业务42%VIP39%

老虎机业务永利公告、 永利公告、图表20：永利EBITDAMargin40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%

29.2%

31.2%

31.1%

31.7%

30.8%29.1%28.7%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%

6.0%

10.5%

3.3%0.0%-5.0% -7.9%-10.0%2019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3-15.0%2019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3Bloomberg一致预期、；注：由于疫情期间（2020Q2-Q3）EBITDAMargin为异常值，故我们不予展示盈利预测与公司估值考虑到永利Q3中场呈现反弹态势，且EM抬升，我们上调永利25-27EGGR预测至295/302/317亿港元，上调25-27E经调整EBITDA预测至94/97/102亿港元。永利非博彩布局偏弱，且VIP恢复亦落后于行业。我们基于行业均值8.7x2026EEV/EBITDA给予折价，维持8.0x2026EEV/EBITDA，目标价从6.7港元上调至7.2港元，维持增持。图表21：永利盈利预测百万港币2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E营业总收入361627612117255,643.9424,26828,74029,36730,13131,860YoY(%)-8.70-79.0054.03-51.86329.9918.432.182.605.74博彩毛收入416847632113094,80523,72528,80029,49830,21331,738YoY(%)-12.10-81.7048.20-57.50393.7121.392.422.425.05VIP流水6370571201849262234,509129,124140,806169,253170,926185,126VIP赢率3.202.303.401.803.493.472.883.022.96VIP毛收入2039027493175620.8484,5044,8934,8785,1695,486yoy-24.85-86.5215.50-80.44625.438.64-0.315.976.13中场流水82552203953611219,42688,316103,324109,630110,726116,263中场赢率22.3021.3020.5019.0020.2421.5320.9120.8120.71中场毛收入18428433774063,69117,87922,24822,92223,04624,083yoy5.89-76.4770.76-50.16384.3824.443.030.544.50老虎机流水73112185162864112,74135,98544,12046,89952,37653,376老虎机赢率3.903.002.503.873.733.763.623.814.06老虎机毛收入28665467284941,3421,6591,6981,9982,169yoy0.21-80.9533.33-32.14171.9923.602.3717.678.56EBITDA9568.361-2063.836383.8-1948.486,621.039,5289,3599,65410,238EBITDAmargin26.46-27.113.27-34.5227.9133.1531.8732.0432.13公告、预测图表22：永利盈利预测变动百万港币2025E2026E2027E前值新值变动前值新值变动前值新值变动博彩毛收入28423294983.78%29132302133.71%30620317383.65%YoY-1.31%2.42%3.73pct2.49%2.42%-0.07pct5.11%5.05%-0.06pct营业总收入28491293673.08%29250301313.01%30948318602.95%YoY-0.87%2.18%3.05pct2.66%2.60%-0.06pct5.81%5.74%-0.07pct毛利080195%毛利率52.80%52.80%0.00pct52.20%52.20%0.00pct51.60%51.60%0.00pctEBITDA908093593.08%937296543.01%9945102382.95%EBITDA利润率31.87%31.87%0.00pct32.04%32.04%0.00pct32.13%32.13%0.00pct净利润332534744.49%337835234.29%555159156.56%净利率11.67%11.83%0.16pct11.55%11.69%0.14pct17.94%18.56%0.63pctEPS0.640.663.67%0.650.673.47%1.061.135.73%公告、预测图表23：永利目标价测算2026E经调整EBITDA（百万港元）9,654预测EV/EBITDA（倍）8.0企业价值（百万港元）77,458现金（百万港元）7,523长短期债务（百万港元）47,152市值（百万港元）37,829总股数（百万）5,257目标价（港元）7.20预测图表24：重点港股美股上市博彩公司和酒店估值表公司股票代码收入（十亿美元）2025E 2026E 2027EEBITDA（十亿美元）2025E 2026E 2027E2025EPE2026E2027E2025EEV/EBITDA2026E2027E港股博彩企业均值27.4514.7011.809.658.708.06银河娱乐 27HK6.156.607.131.781.942.1115.9014.4813.4010.819.909.13金沙中国 1928HK7.367.998.462.232.522.7220.4116.1313.9312.2610.8810.07永利澳门 HK3.743.974.120.941.041.0815.5010.909.407.737.036.73澳博控股 K3.823.693.960.480.580.6575.1321.5613.9411.069.008.08美高梅中国 2282HK4.314.514.671.161.201.2511.8410.8610.068.568.237.94新濠国际 200HK5.225.445.661.251.311.4625.9314.2410.087.467.146.40美股博彩企业均值18.7321.9213.648.728.267.80金沙集团 US12.6613.3614.094.795.095.4021.2719.3617.4711.4810.8010.19美高梅国际 US17.3417.6217.994.654.825.0616.2614.3810.958.328.037.65永利度假 US7.047.357.682.022.142.2525.4920.7218.8911.1210.469.99新濠博亚 MLCOUS5.125.285.511.301.331.4015.0211.248.517.647.517.11凯撒娱乐 CZRUS11.4811.8012.103.663.844.0167.0123.087.727.377.06佩恩国民博彩 PENNUS6.997.387.761.541.802.0323.0810.346.688.317.116.32博伊德赌场 US4.003.923.981.321.301.3611.2710.389.876.466.546.28美股高端酒店均值37.8728.6523.9217.4816.2315.02万豪酒店 US26.2426.6629.155.365.706.1027.9324.7322.0917.1916.1615.12希尔顿酒店 HLTUS11.9412.8713.983.713.994.3432.9029.1125.2719.6418.2516.79洲际酒店 IHGUS3.083.643.961.341.441.5424.6921.8419.3416.8215.6314.55凯悦酒店 HUS7.157.497.951.161.271.3965.9638.9228.9916.2914.8813.62Bloomberg一致预期、；注：港股截至11月7日收盘价，美股截至11月6日收盘价；风险提示政策落地不及预期：20249月以来澳门客流恢复受中国消费刺激政策带动，政策后续落地情况或影响客流及博彩收入恢复。2025-2027博彩收入复苏水平。盈利预测利润表现金流量表会计年度(港币百万)202320242025E2026E2027E会计年度(港币百万)202320242025E2026E2027E营业收入24,26828,74029,36730,13131,860EBITDA6,6219,5289,3599,65410,238销售成本(10,058)(12,217)(13,861)(14,403)(15,420)融资成本2,7642,6222,1482,109(552.19)毛利润14,21116,52315,50615,72916,440营运资本变动100.00597.651,428569.00569.00销售及分销成本(4,373)(4,280)(4,699)(4,821)(5,268)税费(42.71)(51.85)(56.32)(57.12)(95.89)管理费用(2,374)(2,370)(2,790)(2,862)(3,435)其他(2,630)(5,002)(3,136)(3,231)(1,171)其他收入/支出(3,761)(4,544)(2,937)(3,013)(2,279)经营活动现金流6,8127,6949,7439,0448,988财务成本净额(2,764)(2,622)(2,148)(2,109)552.19CAPEX(1,044)(1,567)(2,300)(3,000)(3,300)应占联营公司利润及亏损0.000.000.000.000.00其他投资活动(4,365)(3,263)3,0861,7001,700税前利润1,2143,2503,5303,5806,011投资活动现金流(5,409)(4,830)786.30(1,300)(1,600)税费开支(42.71)(51.85)(56.32)(57.12)(95.89)债务增加量4,451(7,841)1,000(1,500)(1,500)少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.00权益增加量0.010.010.000.000.00归母净利润1,1723,1983,4743,5235,915派发股息0.00(0.30)(784.00)(1,478)(1,457)折旧和摊销(2,374)(2,370)(2,538)(2,672)(2,868)其他融资活动现金流(2,965)(3,582)(4,693)(5,036)(2,814)EBITDA6,6219,5289,3599,65410,238融资活动现金流1,486(11,423)(4,477)(8,014)(5,771)EPS(港币，基本)0.220.610.660.671.13现金变动2,890(8,559)6,052(270.19)1,617年初现金7,42310,3001,7417,7937,523汇率波动影响(12.20)126.00(62.12)641.63(316.35)资产负债表年末现金10,3001,7417,7937,5239,140会计年度(港币百万)202320242025E2026E2027E存货286.19302.19332.40349.02383.93应收账款和票据1,180980.141,2471,3721,509现金及现金等价物10,30011,3357,7937,5239,140其他流动资产5,605141.07155.18170.70189.77总流动资产17,37212,7589,5289,41511,223业绩指标固定资产23,02322,21921,98122,30924,540会计年度(倍)202320242025E2026E2027E无形资产1,8701,7061,7061,706398.35增长率(%)其他长期资产2,5652,5473,3124,3054,736营业收入329.9818.432.182.605.74总长期资产27,45726,47326,99928,32129,674毛利润307.9816.27(6.16)1.444.52总资产44,82939,23236,52837,73640,897营业利润(176.41)43.93