全球车市洞察报告（含中欧美）2025年三季度-2025-12-市场解读

Ppwc3WAUTO汽车干货群免费干货：每日免费分享4+篇精选干货+不定期大尊重原创赋能作者如有侵权请联系我们，第一时间删除下架1Executivesummary2Industryoverview3Analystinsights4GlobalandregionalmarketsanalysisTableof5Appendix:ScenariosandTableof Passengercarsalesjumpedby4%YoYinQ3,leadingtoallquarterspostingpositivegrowththisyear.ThegrowthinQ3iscarriedbyChina(+13%),EuSeptemberBEVimportsfromChinatothWhilethe-30%YoYdropwascausedbyarushofEUimporttariffsinOctoberlastyear,volumesremainedsteadyat42,000units.OtherpowertraintypessawongoingdouGermanyhasreclaimeditspositionasEuropecontrast,France'sBEVsaleshavedeclinedthisyear,thoughlesssharplythantheoverWhileimportedvehiclesgrewinmostofthe10largestcarregiooutgrewimportsinChina,USA,CanadaandMexico,indicatingatrendtowardslGlobal*BEVGlobal*BEVmarketshaInthethirdquarterinvolumeandmarketsharwasdrivenbyrobustperfallthreemajormarket*AnalysedmarketsincludeAustralia,Austria,BelgiPortugal,RestofEU27+UPwCAutofacts®*EU27+UK+EFTAAutomotivedashboardforecastforecastYTDsalesdeltato2024YTDsalesdeltato2024••Globalpassengercarsaleshaveconsistentlygr•Withafurther10%YoYgrowthinSeptember,Europe*transitioned•AsofSeptember202PwCAutofacts®Source:Bloomberg,CBSNews,Electrive,NewYorkTimes,Reuters 2 2 3 5DaysbeforeTrump'smeetinginSouthKorea,XiJinpingunveiledastrategyfocusedonlong-termcompetitionwiththeUSandWest,aimingtosecureagloballeadinadvancedmanufacturingandtechnology.GeneralMotorisdiscontinuingthedevelopmentofthenextgenerationofhydrogenfuelcellsunderitsHydrotecbrand.Instead,GMintendstofocusitsresourceson“batteries,chargingtechnologyandEVs.China,thelargestproducerofrareearths,hasexpandedexportcontrolsbyaddingfiveelementsandincreasingregulationsforsemiconductorusers,requiringcompliancefromforeignpro-ducersusingChinesematerials.FranceandSpainarerecommendingthattheEUstickswithplanstobancombustionenginecarsafter2035.Germany’schancellorMerzhascalledonthebloctogiveupits2035deadlinetohelpGermany’scarindustry.Thursday'stalksdidnotleadtoaformalagreementbuttheannouncementssuggesttheyareclosertoadeal-thedetailsofwhichhavelongbeensubjecttobehind-the-scenesnegotiations.MarketUpdatePwCAutofacts®Source:PwCAutofactsanalysis,BloombergLithiumCobalt0Oct2024AprJulOct2025AprOct2024AprJulOct2025AprSeptemberoverAugustandisforetoAugust.Afurtherpricehikeof19%to$37,72NickelCopperOct2024AprJulOct2025Apr987Oct2024AprJulOct2025AprAnalystinsightsPwCAutofacts®Source:PwCAutofactsanalysis,Automobilwoche,SüddeutscheZeitung,DW,IndustrieMagazin,Strategy&ACEAofACEAofpotentialVWanticipatesbanexportofWhatcausedthecrisisPotentiallyaffectedOEMsRevealingflawsinthesupplychainDutchsemiconductorcontrollingstakeinNexperiafounderofWingtech,ZhangXuezhengasCEO•AspartofTrump’snewtariffs,WingtechwasplacedonanAmerican“blackli•OnSep.30th,theDutcontrolofNexperia,dueto“seriousgovernanceshortcomings”•Volkswagen:thechipshortanimpactyet,but•BMW,Audi:Nexperiaisareshort-termcoveredbutimpactswithNexperiaandcannotgiveanoutlooktduetotheearlystageoftriskmanagementissueneeresilienceandcompetitivemomentwithoutstrategicattheexpenseoflong-termstability*AnalysedmarketsincludeAustralia,Austria,Belg9%9%57%3%48%31%78%8%2%78%8%2%9%38%38%Q32025YTD39%35%Q32025YTD39%35%8%29%43%BEVPHEV(incl.REEV)HEV(incl.FHEV,MHEVandSeries)HighestHighestBEVshareQ32025YTDNorway95%Denmark66%Finland36%Netherlands35%Sweden34%HighestBEVgrowthQ32025YTDYoYTurkey+130%Indonesia+97%Spain+90%India+72%SouthKorea+57%MobilityLVSalesForecast2025release),the40analysedacrossallpowertrains.Top-sellingBEVsinkeymarketsTop-sellingBEVsinQ1-Q3202500112001200041,962041,0910000*EU27+UK+EFTA;**Countrieswithover5,000BEVssoldinSeptember2025YTDSource:PwCAutofactsanalyEurope*BEVsalesdevelopment**Keyinsights(in%,September2025YTD)BEVshare100%250,000RomaniaandLuxembourgexperiencedNorwayYoYdeclinesasofSeptemberYTD90%80%underperformedtheirrespective80%whileinFranceBEVsoutperfo70%Denmark60%60%formidable+33%YoYgrowthamid50%SwedenFinland•DenmarkcontinuedtoshowhighBelgium40%Portugaldouble-digitgrowthwith46%YoYBelgium30%NetherlandsIreland•SinceretakingthetitleofEurope’s*largest20%grewitsadvantageovertheUKwithaLuxembourgSwitzerlandUKAustriaBEVmarketinApril,20%grewitsadvantageovertheUKwitha10%FranceHungaryEurope*GermanySpainPolandhigherpaceRomaniaGreeceItalyCzechia•PolandrecordedthehighestYoYgrowth-30%0%+10%+20%-30%0%+10%+20%+30%+40%+50%+90%+100%+110%BEVYoYgrowthrate*EU27+UK+EFTA;**Morethan72,200BEVsor25,000PHEVssoldinSepteSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,ACEA,CAABEVmarketshareofleadingEuropean*countries**NorwayDenmarkSwedenNetherlandsBelgiumNorwayDenmarkSwedenNetherlandsBelgiumFranceGermanyEurope*ChinaUSA+33%(-47%)95%66% 35%+10%(+3%) 35%+4%(-6%) 33%+12%(-17%) 22%+29%(-1%) 18%-0%(-8%) 18%+38%(-6%) 18%+25%(-3%)+46%(-30%)31%+43%(+2%)+12%(+4%)8%PHEVmarketshareofleadingEuropean*countries**(September2025YTD,YoYchangeSwedenNetherlandsGermanySwedenNetherlandsGermanySpainBelgiumFranceEurope*China+23%(+0%)+41%+41%(-10%)11%+38%(+1%)10%+64%(-5%)10%+105%(+9%)9%-47%(-2%)6%-27%(-5%)6%+73%(-6%)9%+32%(-1%)+8%+8%(+13%)2%2%-5%(+4%)Source:PwCAutofactsanalysis,GeneralAdmissionofCustomsCotherpowertraintypescontImportedvehiclesfromChinatotheEU500450400350300250200500JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2025BEV2024BEV2025Other*2024Other*Keyinsightswithlevelsofpreviousmonths,thepull-aheadeffectbeforeimporttarieffectinOctober2024causedtheYoY•ImportsofotherpowertrainimpactedbyEUimporttariffs)smaintained+34%YoYinSeptember,furtherwideningthegapbetweenBEVSource:PwCAutofactsanKeyinsights%marketshareoutof%marketshareoutoftotalICEmarket%marketshareoutoftotalNEV*market52%48%52%48%48%52%13%0%13%•Amongtheselectedmathebiggestgaineroverallandwmarkets48%52%13%0%13%8%8%Wuling10%12%8%8%Wuling10%12%9%9%9%9%8%8%4%4%8%8%4%4%6%6%7%6%6%6%5%6%6%6%7%6%6%6%5%6%2%presence,however,withinashrink2%34%0%34%0%29%0%29%FY2024YTDFY2024YTD20250%0%YTD2025MarketUpdatePwCAutofacts®ICE*vs.BEVmarketshareKeyinsights%marketshareoutoftotalICE*market%marketshareoutoftotalICE*market87%87%20%20%9%10%8%9%7%8%7%7%6%6%6%5%0%0%82% FY2024YTD2025VolkswagenAudi14%18%16%20%9%6%11%9%7%9%6%7%5%6%2%3%FY2024FY2024YTD2025unchangedtolastmonthwithcomparedtolastyear,withcurincreasedtheirICE*salesbrinincreasedby4%comparedtotomostlybrandswithinthe4%inSeptemberstillnotplac*EU27+UK+EFTASource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,S&PGlobalMoPassengercarsalesbyPassengercarsalesbyassemblyoriginImportedLocallymade32%50%92%97%83%100%72%79%87%68%50%28%21%8%3%ImportedLocallymade32%50%92%97%83%100%72%79%87%68%50%28%21%8%3%MarketLocallymadeImported+11%+12%-14%+1%-1%+6%+3%+5%+1%+1%+1%+64%+6%+5%+17%+3%+2%+6%+3%+10%+2%+5%+3%+12%+3%+4%+3%-4%-4%+1%17,0209,6769,6803,2082,9481,4081,1221,08392673798%0%2%0%*MarketUpdate*EU27+UK+EFTAPwCAutofacts®Source:PwCAutofactsanalysis,ACEA,CAAMMarketshareinEurope*bybrandorigin45%Europeexcl.GermanOEMs45%40%40%35%30%28%30%25%20%6%5%4%0%201920202021202220232024September2025YTDMarketshareinChinabybrandorigin70%60%50%40%30%20%0%20192020202120222023202469%6%September2025YTDTotalpassengercarsalesBEVshareinprivateandfleetBEVshareinprivateandfleetsales2,1142,10366%(1,394)68%66%(1,394)(1,428)34%(709)34%(709)(686)September2024YTDSeptember2025YTDPrivateFleet(173)88%(1,255)(103)85%(583)September2024YTDBEV(245)82%(1,149)(135)81%(574)September2025YTDOther24%20%8%4%0%2024AprJulOct2025AprJulPrivateFleetPwCAutofacts®Aspartofthesupportfortheautomotivetransformation,subsCountryCountryTaxBenefitsPurchaseIncentives2026:Followingthe“Autogipfel”(AutoSummit),thegovernmentisdevelopingnewincentives.Startingattheearliestin2026,newpurchasesubsidiesupto€4,000forBEVs<€45,000aswellasincentivesforcitizenswithlowincome2026:Followingthe“Autogipfel”(AutoSummit),thegovernmentisdevelopingnewincentives.Startingattheearliestin2026,newpurchasesubsidiesupto€4,000forBEVs<€45,000aswellasincentivesforcitizenswithlowincome,likeinFrance,areplanned.Germany75%write-offinthefirstyear,totalwrite-offin6years;From2025:40%costwrite-off,applyingtocompanyBEVpurchasesfromJuly2024toDecember2028GermanyMOVESIIIisfurtherextendeduntil31December2025:Subsidyprogramof€1,550m:UpMOVESIIIisfurtherextendeduntil31December2025:Subsidyprogramof€1,550m:Upto€7,000forpassengerBEVs/FCEVs/PHEVs,dependingonelectricrangeandwhetheravehicleisbeingscrapped;MOVESIVisplannedfor2026,featuring:Higherpurchaselimits,upfrontgrants)2025:BEVsandFCEVspurchasesubsidyfrom€2,000-€7,000.Theeco-bonuswillbeincome-dependentandtiedtoCO2emissionsfromvehicleandbatteryproduction.Purchasepriceofvehiclemustnotexceed47.000€andaweightof2.4tons.Nopurchaseincentivesforcompanies.Leasingsocial:Upto€7,000perBEVforcitizenswithreferencetaxincomeofbelow€16,300,whofulfilallcriteria,until30November2025July2025:Upto£3750onBEVsbelow£37,000until2028-29oruntilthefundingof£650Mio.isusedup.SplitintotwoGroupsregardingthesustainabilityoftheBEV;Group1:£3750/Group2:£1500.VATexemptionpartially;Ownership:Roadtaxreductionofupto75%forBEVsinSpainSpanishmaincities(e.g.,Barcelona);Companycars:30%forBEVs/PHEVs≤€40,000SpainAcquisition:Exemptionfromthemass-basedmalusforBEVs,FCEVsandPHEVsFrance(rangeof>50km);Companycars:ExemptionforCO2-basedtaxcomponents(“TVS”)forvehiclesemittinglessthan60gCO2/km;50%reductiononBenefit-in-Kind(BIK)forBEVshasbeenextendeduntil31December2025,withanannualcapof€1,800FranceCompanycars:ReducedtaxratesforBEVsandultra-lowemissioncars(<75gCO2/km),2%until2025andprogressivelyincreasingafterwardsuntilApril2028For2025:EVsregisteredafter1April2025needtopay£10VEDforthefirstyear.Fromthesecondtaxpaymentonwardsthestandardrateof£195isapplied.OnApril1,theexpensivecartaxsupplementforBEVscostingmorethan£40,000,cameintoforce.September2025:Upto€11,000supportforthoseSeptember2025:Upto€11,000supportforthosewithequivalenteconomicsituationindicator(ISEE)lessthan€30,000andupto€9,000forthosewith€30-40,000;Upto30%formicroenterprises(€20,000cap);EligibilityisconditionalonscrappinganICEuptoEuro-5standardandthepurchaseofaBEV.Italyreductionafterwards;Companycars:taxablevalueofacompany-providedBEVforprivateuseis10%ofthestandardamount(forPHEVs20%),versus50%forICEs.Italy*OverviewcontainsonlythemostrelevantsubsiIncentiveprogramsinRoW*Aspartofthesupportfortheautomotivetransformation,subsCountryCountryTaxBenefitsPurchaseIncentivesStatessubsidizeelectriccarsdifferentlyStatessubsidizeelectriccarsdifferently(inadditiontofederaltaxcredit);TheTrumpAdministrationplanstoendpurchaseincentives,butlacksSenateapprovalUSAAcquisition:FederaltaxcreditforBEVsendedSeptember2025,duetotheTrumpAdministration’s“BigBeautifulBill”,whichabolishedtaxcreditsfornew,usedandleasedBEVsandPHEVs.TheInflationreductionActthereforedoesnotopenthepossibilityanymoretoregisterfortaxcredit.Cartrade-insubsidyschemeissettoexpireattheendof2025.Scopefor2025:¥20,000(~€2,400)ifICEorNEV(ICEsregisteredbeforeJulyCartrade-insubsidyschemeissettoexpireattheendof2025.Scopefor2025:¥20,000(~€2,400)ifICEorNEV(ICEsregisteredbeforeJuly2012andNEVsregisteredbefore2019)istradedinforanewNEV,¥15,000(~€1,800)ifoldvehicleisscrappedforamodernICEwithmax.2LdisplacementStatesubsidyschemeforBEVs:Upto¥850k(~€4,800)withadditionalconditions;FCEVs:Upto¥2.55m(~€14,400);PHEVs:Upto¥550k(~€3,100).Furtherevaluationitemsapplytorealizethesubsidyamount,suchasmanufacturers’abilitytorespondtorepairandmaintenanceneedsoreffortstocollectusedbatteries2025:BudgetforpassengerEVstightenedto₩780b(~€467m);pricecriteriaforfullsubsidywilldropfrom₩55m(~€33,000)to₩53m(~€31,700)2026:purchasesubsidieswillremainatcurrentlevelsofupto₩3m(~€1,800);Additionalsupportof₩1m(~€600)fortradinginanICEsforanelectricvehicleChinaAcquisition:PurchasetaxisabolishedforprivateandbusinesscarsinfavourforataxbasedonfuelefficiencyandenvironmentalcriteriaJapanAcquisition:Upto₩1.4m(~€840)canbedeductedfromtheacquisitiontaxamount.Upto₩3m(~€1800)canbedeductedfromtheindividualconsumptiontaxandupto₩900k(~€540)fromtheeducationtax.Iftheindividualconsumptiontaxis₩0,SouthKoreathenthereisalsonoeducationtax(whichis30%oftheconsumptiontax);temporarytaxcutof3.5%untilSouthKorea*Overviewcontainsonlythemostrelevantsubsi44Passengercarsales87654JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecKeyinsightsInSeptember,globalpassengercarsa6.7millionunits.ThismarkscontinuedmonthlygChina,theUSA,andEurope*r7%,and10%YoY,respecmodest1%increasecomparedkeymarketssawsignificantYoYjumpswith+32%USAduetotheupcomingendofincentivesand+22%forEurope*inSeptember,outperformingtThePwCBaseScenarioforecastsa4%decreaseforQ4YoYanda2%YearSales(inmillion)YoYgrowthQ4YoYgrowthPastPwCScenarios2019PastPwCScenarios201974.62024+2%+5%74.12025-Upside76.9+4%+1%2025-Base75.9+2%-4%2025-Downside74.7+1%-10%10-yearbenchmark8075807570656560ThePwCBaseScenariopredicmillionunits.Thegaptothe10-yearhighin2017isforecastedtodroptojustunder3.5millionunits.*EU27+UK+EFTA;**AnalysedmarketsincludeAustralia,Austria,BelgiuSource:PwCAutofactsanalysis,S&PGlobalMo*EU27+UK+EFTA;**France,Germany,ItaSource:PwCAutofactsana44Passengercarsales2.00.50.02019UpsideScenario20252024JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecKeyinsightsEurope‘s*passengercarmarketgrewby7%YoYinthethirdquarter,largelydrivenbytheEU5**countries,thatmasalesandgrewby6%overthesameperiod.Wgrowthwith17%YoY,followedbEuropean*marketwasdominatedbyEV***salduringQ32025,consecutivelypassinthisyear.WithinEVs***,PHEVsjumpedby58%YoY,BEVsby27Forthelastquarter,thePwCBaseSc4%YoY,leadingtoanoverallsimilarresulYearSales(inmillion)YoYgrowthQ4YoYgrowthPastPast13.0+1%+1%-0%+1%+1%-0%-2%+1%-0%-4%-11%Scenarios2025-UpsideScenariosPwCPwC2025-Base2025-Downside10-yearbenchmarkThePwCBaseScenariandthusmaintainthe3MarketUpdatePwCAutofacts®Source:PwCAutofactsanalysis,KBA44Passengercarsales4003002002019UpsideScenario20252024JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecKeyinsightsAfterexperiencingasignificantdownturnachievedthethirdconsecutivemonthsofgrowth.ThisperformanceleadtoaQ3YoYjumpof10%to708,000units.SalesarelargelydrivenbyEVs*,thatgrewbyacombined31%YoYinQ3(BEVs+45%,PHEVs+82%,Hybrids+12%YoY)foracombiconsistentYoYdeclinessinceNovemberSeptember.WithcurrentdiscussionssurroundingreintroductionofBEVpurchaseincentives,BEVscouldseeafurtherThePwCBaseScenarioforecastsa1%growthforthelatheyearandlargelymatch2024levelsforYearSales(inmillion)YoYgrowthQ4YoYgrowthPastPast2.82.8-1%+1%+0%-1%+1%+0%-2%-1%+4%+1%-7%Scenarios2025-UpsideScenariosPwCPwC2025-Base2025-Downside10-yearbenchmark3,753,503,253,002,753,002,752,50WiththePwCBaseScenaforecastingasimilarreyearfor2025,thegaptothe1highof2019isexpected22%.*NEV=PHEVs+BEVs,NEVfiguSource:PwCAutofactsana44Passengercarsales3.02.52.00.52019UpsideScenario20252024JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecKeyinsightsSinceFebruary,China’smonthlydigitgrowth,taperingto11%YoYinSeptember.Inthefirstthreequarters,