百度集团-SWAI业务线展现强劲增长势头

3Q25业绩回顾图表1：百度集团：季度收入趋势 图表2：百度集团：季度调整后归母净利趋势同比增速（右轴）35同比增速（右轴）34343333323231313030

总收入

(yoy%) (人民币十亿)非GAAP民币十亿)非GAAP归母净利润 非GAAP归母净利率（右轴）2 760 5(2) 4(4) 32(6) 1(8) 0

(%)25201510501Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25公告 公告图表3：百度核心：季度收入趋势 图表4：百度核心：季度调整后经营利润势民币十亿)百度核心非GAAP经营利润非民币十亿)百度核心非GAAP经营利润非GAAP经营利润率（右轴）百度核心收入同比增速（右轴）28同比增速（右轴）272625242322211Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25

86420(2)(4)(6)(8)

8 307 2565 204 153 1021 50 01Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25公告 公告图表5：爱奇艺：季度收入趋势 图表6：爱奇艺：季度调整后经营利润趋势民币十亿)(y民币十亿)(y爱奇艺收入同比增速（右轴）98877661Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25

oy%)0(2)(4)(6)(8)(10)(12)(14)(16)

(人民币百万)爱奇艺非币百万)爱奇艺非GAAP经营利润非GAAP经营利润率（右轴）0(200)

1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25

(%)1614121086420(2)公告 公告盈利预测调整与估值2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E2025/2026/2027年收入预测+1.1/-1.1/-1.5%1,287/1,382/1,501亿元，调整非GP口径净利率至/1/.1（/.%5年上修主因Q4Q252025GAAP口径利润有3Q252025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E图表7：华泰预测变动（人民币百万）前值新值变动,%前值新值变动,%前值新值变动,%营业收入127,389128,7311.1139,753138,161(1.1)152,477150,115(1.5)毛利润54,57355,3001.360,89459,551(2.2)68,34666,567(2.6)经营利润，GAAP10,794(5,153)-14,27212,980(9.1)18,05017,040(5.6)净利润，GAAP21,9228,497(61.2)18,93719,3082.021,92121,644(1.3)净利润,非GAAP16,19119,38019.721,17621,5081.624,46224,132(1.4)华泰研究预测图表8：华泰利润率预测变动前值新值变动,pp前值新值变动,pp前值新值变动,pp毛利率42.8%43.0%0.243.6%43.1%(0.5)44.8%44.3%(0.5)经营利润率，GAAP8.5%-4.0%(12.5)10.2%9.4%(0.8)11.8%11.4%(0.4)净利率，GAAP17.2%6.6%(10.6)13.6%14.0%0.414.4%14.4%0.0净利率，非GAAP12.7%15.1%2.415.2%15.6%0.416.0%16.1%0.1华泰研究预测图表9（人民币百万）20242025E2026E2027E4Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25E营业收入百度133,125128,731138,161150,11534,12432,45232,71331,17432,392同比增长-1.1%-3.3%7.3%8.7%-2.4%3.0%-3.6%-7.1%-5.1%百度核心104,712102,176110,404121,10727,69825,46326,25124,65925,804同比增长1.2%-2.4%8.1%9.7%0.8%7.0%-1.6%-7.0%-6.8%爱奇艺29,22527,26428,47029,7516,6137,1866,6286,6826,767同比增长-8.3%-6.7%4.4%4.5%-14.2%-9.3%-10.9%-7.8%2.3%非GAAP经营利润百度26,23414,79116,46120,8095,0475,3334,4452,2052,809同比增长-7.7%-43.6%11.3%26.4%-28.7%-20.1%-40.7%-68.6%-44.4%非GAAP经营利润率19.7%11.5%11.9%13.9%14.8%16.4%13.6%7.1%8.7%百度核心23,89114,20815,31019,4484,6474,8724,3852,2252,726非GAAP经营利润率22.8%13.9%13.9%16.1%16.8%19.1%16.7%9.0%10.6%爱奇艺2,3625471,0981,31040645959(22)52非GAAP经营利润率8.1%2.0%3.9%4.4%6.1%6.4%0.9%-0.3%0.8%公告预测分部估值2026SOTP243.2美元（前值：243.6美元，港股目标价为.4港元（前值：.4港元。新目标价分别对应/.0倍2026/2027GAAPPE。我们的分部估值结果主要包括：百度智能云每S7.6（6美元1（1港元x6年预测（x5年S8美元（1美元4（7美元0倍6年预测（x5年6S.8（前5美元7（4美元40倍6年预测（前年6.4昆仑芯每S4（3美元9（1港元，20.02026PS（前值：25.0x，2025年）59%的权益比例，较可比13.8倍有所溢价，反映中国国产替代龙头的估值溢价。自动驾驶每S5美元（前值：1美元，每普通股3港元（前值：8港元，30.02026年倍有所溢价，以反映其国内领先的技术水平、规模和与竞对相比更强的成本优势。百度核心广告每S1.0美元（前值：7美元，每普通股7港元（前值：港元0倍6年预测（05年.5倍有AI改造仍处进程当中，收入增速转正尚需一定时间。（约0Q5末35%ADS234.4226.8港元。）爱奇艺及其他投资9美元每（前值：1美元，6港元每普通股（前值：港元，基于最新市值（截至1月8日）及百度所持权益份额，给予持有折让%不变。图表10：百度：分部估值归属百度每ADS每普通股估值基础估值/市值估值/市值的价值估值估值分部估值方法人民币百万估值倍数(x)人民币百万美元百万百度持有比例百万美元美元港元占比%百度智能云31,170.66.0x186,400.326,321.8100%26,321.877.675.131.9%个人云（网盘、文库等）2026PS10,286.310.0x102,863.114,525.4100%14,525.442.841.417.6%企业云2026PS20,884.34.0x83,537.311,796.4100%11,796.434.833.714.3%昆仑芯2026PS9,380.020.0x187,600.026,491.259%15,749.046.444.919.1%自动驾驶2026PS684.130.0x20,523.82,898.2100%2,898.28.58.33.5%百度核心广告2026PE19,720.85.0x98,604.213,924.0100%13,924.041.039.716.9%分部加总估值58,893.0173.6168.071.4%溢价（以反映净现金价值）1.35x79,505.5234.4226.896.3%投资，折价30%3,013.38.98.63.7%总估值，百万美元82,518.8243.2235.4100.0%普通股数量，百万2,686.9ADS数量，百万335.9注：美元/人民币汇率假设为7.1，港元/人民币汇率假设为0.91，基于月18日人民币兑美元中间价。公告， 预测图表11公司名称代码股价市值P/S营收CAGR%P/E调整后净利CAGR%(交易货币)(百万美元)2025E2026E2027E2025-2027E2025E2026E2027E2025-2027E英伟达NVDAUS186.74,534,38021.715.112.141.940.126.521.342.0AMDAMDUS240.5391,57711.58.76.334.460.036.223.146.2英特尔INTCUS34.7165,5673.13.12.92.1106.753.428.8na博通AVGOUS342.71,618,11823.317.313.330.744.932.824.935.7寒武纪688256CH1,326.778,95680.140.726.1163.4247.2114.470.5na中芯国际688981CH74.090,2969.88.16.818.2128.374.550.753.5高通QCOMCH166.8178,4924.03.93.84.913.513.713.43.5平均值21.913.810.242.291.550.233.236.218日收盘；VisibleAlpha一致预期，图表12：自动驾驶可比公司估值公司名称 代码 股价市值P/S营收CAGR%P/E调整后净利CAGR%(交易货币)(百万美元)2025E2026E2027E2025-2027E2025E2026E2027E2025-2027E小马智行 PONYUS 12.25,28163.748.024.941.4nanana(6.6)特斯拉 TSLAUS 408.91,359,99414.312.610.69.6238.7174.2121.511.8速腾聚创 2498HK 31.51,9156.23.62.549.4nananana地平线机器人9660HK 7.614,38027.815.910.360.7nana147.2na四维图新 002405CH 8.72,8945.14.22.925.8nana63.4naMobileye MBLYUS 11.89,6275.14.73.815.233.227.617.838.1Uber UBERUS 92.1191,3893.73.22.816.315.021.417.6naLyft LYFTUS 21.68,6181.31.21.013.016.613.410.627.4平均值15.911.77.328.975.959.263.014.5注：数据截至11月18日收盘；VisibleAlpha一致预期图表13：企业云可比公司估值调整后净利CAGR公司名称代码股价市值P/S营收CAGR%P/E%(交易货币)(百万美元)2025E2026E2027E2025-2027E2025E2026E2027E2025-2027E亚马逊AMZNUS232.92,489,4313.53.12.811.525.823.719.518.0微软MSFTUS507.53,771,85712.410.79.315.633.528.624.517.4谷歌GOOGLUS285.03,442,4728.67.66.713.523.322.019.514.7甲骨文ORCLUS219.9626,77510.18.36.023.933.729.022.619.0MetaMETAUS602.01,517,3837.66.45.518.518.515.614.113.0金山云KCUS12.23,6792.72.32.018.1nananana平均值7.56.45.416.827.023.820.016.4注：数据截至11月18日收盘；VisibleAlpha一致预期图表14：个人云可比公司估值调整后净利CAGR公司名称 代码 股价市值P/S营收CAGR%P/E%(交易货币)(百万美元)2025E2026E2027E2025-2027E2025E2026E2027E2025-2027E微软 MSFTUS 507.53,771,85712.410.79.315.633.528.624.517.4Salesforce CRMUS 237.0225,6535.55.04.69.120.518.316.212.0金山软件 688111CH 318.720,76624.720.917.418.280.263.552.022.1Adobe ADBEUS 325.1136,0745.75.34.89.515.314.012.88.7ServiceNow NOWUS 835.8173,41113.111.19.419.147.740.333.321.5Shopify SHOPUS 139.9182,16715.912.810.425.295.972.858.024.3SAP SAPUS 207.0279,3748.98.07.210.247.040.133.422.9Workday WDAYUS 225.060,0626.35.65.012.425.021.017.320.8平均值12.310.69.114.345.637.330.916.3注：数据截至11月18日收盘；VisibleAlpha一致预期图表15调整后净利CAGR公司名称代码股价市值P/S营收CAGR%P/E%(交易货币)(百万美元)2025E2026E2027E2025-2027E2025E2026E2027E2025-2027E阿里巴巴BABAUS157.7352,3782.42.22.07.919.717.113.73.8腾讯0700HK623.5725,5346.96.25.711.119.817.715.813.7微博WBUS10.02,4361.41.41.31.15.25.14.91.0谷歌GOOGLUS285.03,442,4728.67.66.713.523.322.019.514.7MetaMETAUS602.01,517,3837.66.45.518.518.515.614.113.0平均值5.44.84.310.417.315.513.69.218日收盘；VisibleAlpha一致预期风险提示广告及云计算需求复苏不及预期，大模型商业化进度慢于预期。图表16：百度集团-SWPE-Bands 图表17：百度集团-SWPB-Bands(港币)343

━━━━━百度集团-SW

(港币)216

━━━━━百度集团-SW

30x 25x 20x15x

1.3x0Nov-22May-23Nov-23May-24Nov-24May-25

0Nov-22May-23Nov-23May-24Nov-24May-25S&P、华泰研究 S&P、华泰研究盈利预测利润表现金流量表会计年度(人民币百万)202320242025E2026E2027E会计年度(人民币百万)202320242025E2026E2027E营业收入134,598133,125128,731138,161150,115EBITDA41,89444,00510,70224,76029,549销售成本(65,031)(66,102)(73,431)(78,611)(83,547)融资成本(4,761)(5,138)(5,726)(4,780)(5,050)毛利润69,56767,02355,30059,55166,567营运资本变动(13,067)(27,512)2,444(21.64)(348.84)销售及分销成本(23,519)(23,620)(40,107)(23,729)(24,921)税费(3,649)(4,447)(1,241)(2,216)(3,939)管理费用0.000.000.000.000.00其他16,19814,32614,93912,77513,604其他收入/支出2,3802,9056,4511,8501,750经营活动现金流36,61521,23421,11830,51833,815财务成本净额4,7615,1385,7264,7805,050CAPEX(11,295)(8,259)(11,701)(9,706)(10,438)应占联营公司利润及亏损(3,799)(691.00)2,4961,9931,993其他投资活动(39,102)(296.00)(3,078)(3,171)(3,266)税前利润25,19828,6229,51921,60225,832投资活动现金流(50,397)(8,555)(14,779)(12,877)(13,703)税费开支(3,649)(4,447)(1,241)(2,216)(3,939)债务增加量(7,321)(2,575)(2,855)(2,452)(2,084)少数股东损益1,234415.00(218.17)78.24249.33权益增加量(4,413)(5,709)0.000.000.00净利润20,31523,7608,49719,30821,644派发股息0.000.000.000.000.00Non-GAAP调整项8,4323,24210,8832,2002,488其他融资活动现金流(2,428)(5,475)0.000.000.00调整后净利润28,74727,00219,38021,50824,132融资活动现金流(14,162)(13,759)(2,855)(2,452)(2,084)折旧和摊销(14,908)(14,628)(6,908)(7,938)(8,767)现金变动(27,944)(1,080)3,48415,18918,027EBITDA41,89444,00510,70224,76029,549年初现金65,23637,57436,49439,97855,167EPS(人民币，基本)7.398.643.147.138.00汇率波动影响282.0095.000.000.000.00年末现金37,57436,49439,97855,16773,194资产负债表会计年度(人民币百万)202320242025E2026E2027E存货0.000.000.000.000.00应收账款和票据23,42728,92226,93026,76726,632业绩指标现金及现金等价物25,23124,83228,31643,50561,532会计年度(倍)202320242025E2026E2027E其他流动资产181,597115,095118,173121,344124,610增长率(%)总流动资产230,255168,849173,419191,616212,774营业收入8.83(1.09)(3.30)7.338.65固定资产27,96030,10233,49333,84534,085毛利润16.45(3.66)(17.49)7.6911.78无形资产7,848 7,702 7,702 7,702 7,702营业利润37.36(2.68)(124.23)(351.89)31.28其他长期资产140,696221,127222,530223,946225,377净利润168.7516.96(64.24)127.2412.09总长期资产176,504258,931263,724265,493267,164调整后净利润39.01(6.07)(28.23)10.9812.20总资产406,759427,780437,143457,109479,937EPS(基本)168.7516.96(63.66)127.2412.09应付账款57,05558,78759,23959,05458,571盈利能力比率(%)短期借款10,25710,66910,66910,66910,669毛利润率51.6950.3542.9643.1044.34其他负债9,13911,49711,49711,49711,497EBITDA31.1333.068.3117.9219.68总流动负债76,45180,95381,40581,22080,737净利润率15.0917.856.6013.9814.42长期债务19,26320,56921,34922,16823,027调整后净利