整合统计系统以深化贸易分析

整合统计系统以深化贸易分析IntegrateStatisticalSystemtoDeepenTradeAnalysis2026/1/801Backgrounds02IntegrationAnalysis03FurtherWork2026/1/82Part

1BackgroundWhatdoweneedfortradestatisticsStatusquooftradestatisticsandenterprisestatisticsinChinaHowtointegratethetwosystems2026/1/83RequirementsforTradeStatisticsintheNewEraGuidelinesonPromotingtheInnovativeDevelopmentofForeignTradeGBF[2020]No.40Focusingontheconstructionofanewdevelopmentpatternthatdomesticcirculationisthemainbodyanddomesticandinternationaldoublecirculationpromotemutually,weshouldacceleratethe“fiveoptimizations"of

internationalmarketlayout,domesticregionallayout,businessentities,commoditystructure

andtrademode,andthe"threeconstructions“,i.e.,foreigntradetransformationandupgradingbase,tradepromotionplatform,andinternationalmarketingsystem.Cultivatenewadvantagesinparticipatingininternationalcooperationandcompetitionunderthenewsituation,andachieveinnovativedevelopmentofforeigntrade.Cultivateleadingenterprises

withglobalcompetitivenessEnhancethetradecompetitivenessofSMEs2026/1/84RequirementsforTradeStatisticsintheNewEraGuidelinesonAcceleratingtheDevelopmentofNewFormsandModelsofForeignTradeGBF[2021]No.24By2025,theinstitutionalmechanismsandpolicysystemsforthedevelopmentofnewformatsandnewmodelsofforeigntradewillbeimproved,thebusinessenvironmentwillbeoptimized,anumberofleadingenterprisesandindustrialclusterswithinternationalcompetitivenesswillbestrengthened,thelevelofthe

industrialvaluechainwillbeupgraded,andtheleadingroleofforeigntradeandthenationaleconomyisfurtherenhanced.Promotethedatadockingamongcommerce,customs,taxation,marketsupervision,postalandotherdepartmentstostrengthenthesupervisionoftaxevasion,counterfeitandinferiortransactions,andfalsetransactionsbesidesstreamliningservices.Improvetheforeigntradestatisticalsystemofnewbusinessformatsandnewmodels.（MOFCOMtakesthelead，GACC,SATC,SAMR,

NBS,

CSPB

cooperateaccordingtotheirownresponsibilities）2026/1/85CustomsStatisticsCustomsDeclarationdomesticconsignee/consignor,entry/exitcustoms,import/exportdate,overseasconsignee/consignor,modeoftransport,nameodmeansoftransportations,consumingandusingunit/producingandsaleunit,modeofsupervision,tradingcountry(region),country(region)ofdeparture/arrival,portofentry/departure,transactionmethod,freight,premium,miscellaneouscharges,commodityname,specificationandmodel,quantityandunit,unitprice,totalprice,currencysystem,country(region)oforigin,finaldestinationcountry(region),domesticdestination/domesticsourceofgoods,etc.2026/1/86EnterpriseStatisticsIndustrialEnterprisesStatisticsWholesaleandRetailEnterprisesStatisticsScopeindustriallegalentitiesabovedesignatedscale(annualrevenueof20millionRMBandabove)Indicatorsbasicinformation,employees,financialstatus,productionandoperation,researchanddevelopmentactivitiesandinnovation,informatizationande-commerce,etc.exportdeliveryvalueScopewholesaleandretaillegalentitiesabovedesignatedscale(wholesaleenterprises:annualrevenueof20millionRMBandabove;retailenterprises:annualrevenueof5millionRMBandabove)Indicatorsbasicinformation,financialstatus,andoperatingconditionscommoditypurchasevalue-importscommoditysalesvalue-exports2026/1/87IndustrialStatisticsexportonly,noimportinformationexportinformationincludescommodityinformationonly,nothingabouttradingcounterpartiesWholesaleandRetailTradeStatisticstotalimportsorexportsonly,noproductclassificationinformationnoinformationaboutconsumeanduseunit/produceandsaleunitofthegoodsnoinformationontradingcounterpartiesCustomsStatisticsonlythenameoftheenterprise,nofurtherinformationsuchastype,productionandfinancialstatistics,etc.TheTwoStatisticalSystemsareIndependentofEachOther2026/1/88Informationoftradersandcorrespondingtransactionsareseparated.Theanalysisisrestricted.Itisdifficulttoconnectforeigntradeanalysiswithenterprisedevelopmentanalysis.Itisnotconductivetoanalyzethestructuralcharacteristicsofforeigntradeanditisalsonotconductivetoformulateandimplementpreciseforeigntradepolicies.Aretheleadingforeigntradeenterprisessustainable?Whichenterpriseshighlydependonforeigntrade?Whichenterprises'foreigntradeisgreatlyaffectedbyemergencies?Hastheforeigntradepolicyachievedtheexpectedeffect?DisadvantagesoftheIndependence2026/1/89TheNecessityofIntegrationoftheTwoSystemsMeetthenewtrendsinworldtradedevelopmentMeetandleadtherequirementsoftheinnovativedevelopmentofnewforeigntradeMeettheneedtoimprovethecurrentstatisticalwork2026/1/810Internationaltradeingoods-tradebyenterprisecharacteristics(TEC)Themainobjectiveofthe

(TEC)

istobridgetwomajorstatisticaldomainswhichhavetraditionallybeencompiledandusedseparately,businessstatisticsandinternationaltradeingoodsstatistics(ITGS).Specifically,thisnewdomainwascreatedtoanswerquestionssuchas:Whatkindofbusinessesarebehindthetradeflowsofgoods?Whatisthecontributionofaparticularactivitysectortotrade?Whatistheshareofsmallandmedium-sizedenterprisestototaltrade?Whatistheshareofenterprisesthattradewithacertainpartnercountryandtheamountoftradevaluetheyaccountfor?Thetradeingoodsbetweencountriesisbrokendownby

economicactivity,

size-classofenterprises,

tradeconcentration,

geographicaldiversification

and

productstraded.

Boththeexportandimportvaluesandthenumberofexportingandimportingenterprisesareavailablefor26OECDand6non-OECDcountries:including28EUmemberstatesplusCanada,Norway,Israel,TurkeyandtheUnitedStates.InternationalExperienceBasedonCorporateForeignTradeStatistics:OECDandEU2026/1/811/sdd/its/trade-by-enterprise-characteristics.htmhttps://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/ext_tec_sims.htm#stat_pres16287817962792026/1/812Example:TECApplicationinAustraliaDataSource：http://www.statistik.at/web_en/statistics/Economy/foreign_trade/tec_trade_by_enterprise_characteristics/index.htmlLongitudinalFirmTradeTransactionsDatabase

(LFTTD)

1992–2018The

LongitudinalFirmTradeTransactionsDatabase(LFTTD)

linksindividual

tradetransactions

totheU.S.firmsthatmakethem.Thatis,itlinksexporttransactionstotheU.S.exporterandimporttransactionstotheU.S.importer.The

LFTTD

containsthesamefirmidentifierfoundinmanyotherCensusdataproducts.Thisdatasethastwocomponents.MatchingthetwocomponentsyieldstheLFTTD.

ForeigntradedataassembledbytheU.S.CensusBureauandU.S.CustomscapturesallU.S.internationaltrade.LongitudinalBusinessDatabase(LBD)oftheU.S.CensusBureau,whichrecordsannualemployment,industry(4-digit1987StandardIndustrialClassificationSIC4),andsurvivalinformationformostU.S.establishments.InternationalExperienceBasedonCorporateForeignTradeStatistics:USA2026/1/813https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/ext_tec_sims.htm#stat_pres1628781796279BasicIdeasofIntegratingtheTwoStatisticalSystemsTakeenterpriseasthejoinfieldandlinkthebottomdataoftwostatisticalsystemsObservecomprehensivelyanddeeplythroughmulti-dimensionalclassificationUsebigdataanalysismethodstodevelopnewdataproductsDimensionBytheindustryoftheenterpriseBytheownershipoftheenterpriseBythescaleoftheenterpriseBytheregionoftheenterpriseBythepartnercountry……AnalysisCrossclassificationFormulatenewindicatorExploresocial

networkRecommendationsystemForecast……2026/1/814BasicStepstoIntegratetheTwoStatisticalSystems2026/1/815LinksourcedataMulti-dimensionalclassificationdataanalysisdatareleaseConnecttradestatisticswithenterprisestatisticstoreflectforeigntradeactivitiesandthecontributionoftradetotheeconomyfromtheperspectiveofthetraders.thestructureoftradersinforeigntradecontributionsofdifferenttradersinforeigntradecharacteristicsofdifferenttradersinforeigntradeactivitiescontributionofforeigntradetothedevelopmentofdifferenttradersQuestionsthatcanbeAnsweredbyIntegratingtheTwoStatisticalSystems2026/1/816Part2IntegrationAnalysisGeneralIdeaIndicatorEstablishmentBigDataStatisticalAnalysis2026/1/817BasicAnalysisFurtherAnalysisStaticAnalysisDynamicAnalysisBasicIdeaof​​IntegrationAnalysis2026/1/818keyindicatordashboardindicatorsystemmulti-dimensionalclassificationdill-downanalysisdistributioncoreenterprisecore

commoditiesretentionanalysistransferanalysistrendforecast“Indicatorsareawayofseeingthebigpicturebylookingatasmallpieceofit.”（PlanCanada）Theoriginofindicatoristherawdata.Thepurposeistocreatenewfeatureswithobviouseconomicorstatisticalsignificanceandconverttheoriginalfeaturesintonewones.pinpointingproblems;identifyingtrends;settingpriority;monitoringprogress;forecasting.Formulationmethods:combiningordecomposingSelectionprinciples:

economicimplications;statisticalrelevance;

managementfeasibilityFormulationandSelectionofEconomicIndicators2026/1/819Dataandfeaturesdeterminetheupperlimitofmachinelearning,whilemodelsandalgorithmsonlyapproachthisupperlimit.Thestructureoftradersinforeigntrade.Forspecificcommodity,calculatetheforeigntradeshareofabove(below)-scaleenterprises/enterprisesofstrategicimportance/state-owned(private,foreign-funded)enterprisesConcentrationoftradingenterprises.Forspecificcommodities,calculatemarketshareoftopkimportandexportenterprises;Ginicoefficient;TheilindexConcentrationoftradingpartners.Forspecificcommodities,calculatemarketshareoftopktradingpartnercountries;Ginicoefficient;TheilindexThetradedependenceoftheenterprises.Forspecificenterprises,calculateimports/totaloutput(valueadded;operatingincome;fixedassets;currentassets);export/totaloutput(valueadded;operatingincome)Examples

of

Indicators2026/1/820CombineStaticandDynamicAnalysisStatic

AnalysisDynamic

Analysis

2026/1/821BigDataAnalysisFrameworkforintegratedTrade-Enterprise2026/1/822DescriptiveStatisticsvisualizationNetworkAnalysisenterprisenetworkcommoditynetworkcountrynetworkTrendPredictionARIMAmachinelearningVisualization-StructureTrendCharttrademapbrickmap2026/1/823Acommodityofanenterpriseabovescale:tradecountry×trademodeVisualization-CommodityMonitoryChartthermaldiagramofimportedcommodity2026/1/824Visualization-DynamicGraphdynamicchartoftradevalue2026/1/825NetworkAnalysisNetworkconstructionenterprisenetwork;commoditynetwork;countrynetworkNetworkanalysisGeneralanalysis:networkdiameter,connectedcomponents,pathlength,degreedistribution,clusteringcoefficient,networkdensityNodecentrality:degreecentrality,closenesscentrality,intermediationCommunitydiscovery:FNalgorithm,spectralclusteringalgorithm2026/1/826soybean（HS1201）tradenetwork，2017DirectedweightedgraphNode:(main)countryEdgeweight:import/exportvolumeNetworkdensity：0.235Clusteringcoefficient：0.485Networkdiameter：32026/1/827NetworkofCommodityTradingCountriesReflectingthetradesituation,traderelationsandstrategicpositionNetworkCentralityofSoybeanCountry/RegionOut-DegreeIn-DegreeClosenessCentralityIntermediaryBrazil0.6470.1185.15E-080Canada0.6470.1185.82E-080.287China0.2940.4127.45E-080.728Germany0.1180.4126.69E-080Netherlands0.1180.4716.16E-080Paraguay0.5880.1186.29E-080.390Russia0.0590.2353.74E-080India0.17604.60E-080USA0.5880.4126.58E-080.404Uruguay0.3530.1185.10E-080.015Argentina0.2940.1765.52E-080.140Ukraine0.2940.0596.18E-080.338Turkey0.0590.2942.45E-080Japan00.2352.79E-080Mexico00.1761.62E-080Spain00.5297.13E-080.324OtherAsianCountries00.2355.73E-080Indonesia00.1185.08E-0802026/1/828commoditynetworkpathlengthdistributioncommoditynetworknodedegreedistributionData：Annualimportorexportcommoditiesoftheenterprise2026/1/829CommodityNetworkIdentifyingthestrategicvalueofcommodities,diggingoutcorecommodities

andestablishinganewlogicforforecastingandearly-warningCommodityNetworkCentralityAnalysisDegreeCentralityClosenessCentralityIntermediaryhingechainpartsmachinepartsnotlistedinothertaxnumbersinthischapterradardisplaytubepartsotherleatherbootswithinsolelength≥24cm(overankle)men'swoolenhoodedcold-proofjacketandwindbreakerinflatablespeedboatforrecreationorsportsinflatablespeedboatforrecreationorsportszincandzincalloybars,rods,profiles,wiresotherspunsilkyarnsnotforretailothersoundrecordingandplaybackdevicesusingopticalmediaotherpuresyntheticfiberclothotherdieselvehicleswithexhaustvolume>4lzincandzincalloybars,rods,profilesandwiresothersyntheticstaplefabricsblendedwithotherfibersotherpaper-madebobbins,reelsKeyCommoditiesBasedOnCentralitycommoditiesconnectedtoacorecommodity2026/1/830CommodityCommunityDiscoverycommunitydivisionbasedonFNalgorithm(7categories)communitydivisionbasedonspectralclusteringalgorithm(4categories)2026/1/831SpecificProductDiscoveryCommoditycompetitiveness:internationalcompetitivenessindex,internationalmarketshareindex,comparativeadvantageindex"Link"commoditymining:tradeintensityindex,complementarityindexProductportrait:BRICHalgorithm,DBSCANalgorithm2026/1/832TradeTrendForecastforecastbyARIMAforecastbyLSTMData：Annualhigh-endcommodityexports2026/1/833PredictionResultsTimeTrueValueARIMAErrorLSTMError2017·1170210187654431580.068667304100.052017·1274877581678804150.093697178200.0692018·0157708566507734140.12541054870.0622018·0248527865431391570.111479480940.0122018·0359722520540490010.095586524360.0182018·0458418544522466000.106556705370.0472018·0558195190529104130.091569222070.0222018·0660757985558231020.081618965730.0192018·0760158422559303