银行业深度报告：2025Q4上市银行AC潜在兑现及回补债券评估

目 录1、我们测算2025Q1-Q3上市银行约卖出2万亿债券兑现浮盈 32、预计Q4上市银行需卖出约9000亿债券支撑非息收入 83、投资建议 104、风险提示 图表目录图1：2024年以来上市银行AC同比增速低于金融投资同比增速 3图2：2023Q2-2025Q2期间上市银行AC占比整体持续下降，2025Q3回升 3图3：2025Q1、Q2上市银行AC占金融资产比例持续下降，Q3回升 4图：根据我1上市银行C兑现浮盈约178亿元（亿元） 4图：根据我1上市银行C兑现浮盈占营收比例为.50% 4图6：根据我们测算，2025Q1-Q3上市银行处置AC产生的投资净收益占营收比例为2.50%，较2024年+1.59pct 5图7：上市银行AC账户中政府债占比高（2025H1） 6图8：国有行AC账户5Y以上占比高（2025H1） 6图9：2025H1末上市银行AC账户累积浮盈约3.3万亿元 7图10：我们测算Q4上市银行AC需兑现浮盈543亿元 8图我们测算Q4上市银行AC需卖出约9000亿债券 8表1：2025Q1、Q2股份行和农商行AC账户均为净卖出（单季增量，亿元） 4表2：2025H1末上市银行AC账户累积浮盈约3.3万亿元 6表3：我们测算，2025Q1-Q3上市银行AC账户卖出债券规模约为1.76万亿元（亿元） 6表4：根据我们测算，2025Q4上市银行AC账户需卖出债券规模约为9000亿元（亿元） 8表5：我们测算2025Q4上市银行AC账户债券回补规模约为3.45万亿元 10表6：受益标的一览 101、我们测算2025Q1-Q3上市银行约卖出2万亿债券兑现浮盈AC2025来AC2024AC02Q3上市银行AC54.8pc。股份行/14.7%/2.8%/9.7%/-3.8%，3.18pct/6.05pct/10.63pct/10.47pct。图1：2024年以来上市银行AC同比增速低于金融投资同比增速70.0%70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0% 国有行股份行城商行农商行上市银行29.3%11.5%15.8%8.6%24Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3 24Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3 24Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3 24Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3AC FVOCI FVTPL 金融投资从AC占比来看，2023Q2-2025Q2期间上市银行纯配置账户ACAC57.5%2023Q14.5pct/股份行//4.6pct/3.8pct/9.3pct/8.9pct图2：2023Q2-2025Q2期间上市银行AC占比整体持续下降，2025Q3回升国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行 上市银行75%70%65%60%55%50%45%40%35%2019Q42020Q42021Q42022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q320242025Q12025Q22025Q330%2019Q42020Q42021Q42022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q320242025Q12025Q22025Q3图3：2025Q1、Q2上市银行AC占金融资产比例持续下降，Q3回升4.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%ACFVOCIFVTPL0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%-4.0%-0.5%-1.2%-0.8%0.3%-0.5%-1.0%-0.6%0.3%-0.5%0.4%-1.1%-0.7%-0.6%-0.7%-0.5%-0.5%-0.5%-1.7%-2.0%-2.8%24Q425Q125Q225Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3202425Q125Q225Q324Q425Q125Q225Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3上市银行 国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行（注：单季环比变化）从单季增量规模上看，上半年股份行和农商行ACQ32FTP表1：2025Q1、Q2股份行和农商行AC账户均为净卖出（单季增量，亿元）银行类型2024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3国有行408991967595136519219861721440股份行-1383-5309522698-846-24493676城商行-38457473129348217651012农商行3517-111107-170-88-142上市银行2356874089091774886867846259862213上市银行AC兑现浮盈占营收比例为2.524年提升1.59pct。//农商行占营收比例分别为2.24%/2.44%/3.79%/5.52%2024年分别提升1.65pct/1.25pct/2.01pct/2.25pct。图Q1-Q3上市银行AC1078亿元（亿元）202220232022202320242025Q1-Q30国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行

图5：根据我们测算，Q1-Q3上市银行AC兑现浮盈占营收比例为2.50%202220232022202320242025Q1-Q35.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行 上市银行、各银行财报 、各银行财报图6：根据我们测算，2025Q1-Q3上市银行处置AC产生的投资净收益占营收比例为2.50%，较2024年+1.59pct银行名称无锡银国有行

处置AC产生的收益（亿元）2024 2025H1 2025Q1-Q334.46 100.25 148.2039.91 94.00 104.2971.67 150.88 201.8126.28 12.02 21.3830.58 84.85 121.884.52 5.60 11.9340.45 12.17 16.8244.98 54.77 71.0239.02 51.23 64.4525.18 19.87 28.3918.67 27.72 32.332.50 19.74 21.137.59 15.36 19.641.33 2.07 2.180.00 0.00 16.589.03 18.89 19.5555.63 34.03 62.820.09 -0.25 0.000.00 0.00 0.008.58 11.14 20.22-3.00 8.47 8.55-0.07 4.01 9.1913.79 7.29 13.095.33 0.00 0.000.37 0.13 0.160.00 3.86 4.590.00 3.43 4.240.48 2.32 4.200.00 0.00 0.030.06 0.08 0.100.58 5.30 5.700.00 0.00 0.0012.68 3.77 6.200.06 0.00 0.004.47 7.70 11.822.09 2.09 2.902.98 3.68 3.684.46 2.98 4.344.06 6.66 6.670.13 0.36 0.480.23 0.19 1.25207 448 609180 203 27334 32 44

占投资净收益比例2024 2025H1 2025Q1-Q38.42% 30.49% 30.49%18.63% 33.68% 28.37%23.02% 65.17% 58.95%6.34% 7.52% 5.47%9.64% 42.96% 38.51%1.67% 4.67% 7.11%13.54% 5.56% 5.56%12.42% 29.93% 26.42%13.39% 34.16% 34.16%8.60% 12.72% 13.01%12.08% 30.02% 22.23%1.97% 19.02% 16.81%3.08% 12.07% 12.07%0.85% 2.40% 1.70%0.00% 0.00% 20.36%6.69% 24.92% 19.74%42.26% 31.79% 37.45%0.06% -0.31% 0.00%0.00% 0.00% 0.00%6.30% 13.78% 15.73%-4.10% 14.80% 11.70%-0.24% 12.58% 16.82%38.04% 32.15% 40.95%22.56% 0.00% 0.00%1.67% 0.73% 0.73%0.00% 31.38% 31.38%0.00% 22.69% 22.31%2.08% 17.83% 21.59%0.00% 0.00% 0.20%0.50% 0.90% 0.74%3.17% 52.36% 52.32%0.00% 0.00% 0.00%30.20% 15.09% 17.74%0.24% 0.00% 0.00%23.78% 75.11% 75.11%13.99% 17.40% 17.40%55.28% 55.80% 52.77%26.33% 59.00% 59.00%34.57% 34.37% 37.52%46.28% 75.52% 71.52%1.14% 4.34% 4.34%2.42% 3.04% 15.36%10.70% 33.99% 29.43%8.80% 17.15% 16.81%15.19% 16.61%21.40% 28.14% 27.32%

较2024年变动（PCT）22.079.7435.94-0.8728.875.44-7.9813.9920.774.4010.1514.848.980.8620.3613.05-4.80-0.060.009.4315.8017.062.91-22.56-0.9331.3822.3119.510.200.2449.150.00-12.46-0.2451.343.41-2.5132.672.9525.243.2012.9418.728.017.435.91

占营业收入比例2024 2025H1 2025Q1-Q30.42% 2.35% 2.32%0.53% 2.38% 1.82%1.01% 4.08% 3.66%0.42% 0.37% 0.44%0.88% 4.73% 4.60%0.17% 0.42% 0.60%1.20% 0.72% 0.67%2.12% 4.96% 4.40%2.29% 5.66% 4.87%1.18% 1.88% 1.81%1.37% 3.83% 2.98%0.18% 2.99% 2.24%0.52% 2.21% 1.95%0.14% 0.45% 0.34%0.00% 0.00% 3.39%1.29% 5.22% 3.79%10.50% 12.44% 15.27%0.01% -0.05% 0.00%0.00% 0.00% 0.00%1.71% 3.91% 4.82%-0.78% 4.22% 2.96%-0.03% 3.02% 4.66%6.00% 5.94% 7.37%3.90% 0.00% 0.00%0.25% 0.20% 0.17%0.00% 5.77% 4.89%0.00% 4.47% 3.85%0.40% 3.57% 4.44%0.00% 0.00% 0.03%0.08% 0.21% 0.17%0.71% 10.18% 7.41%0.00% 0.00% 0.00%4.49% 2.56% 2.86%0.02% 0.00% 0.00%4.05% 13.39% 14.73%1.92% 3.45% 3.21%6.68% 15.40% 11.26%5.56% 18.06% 16.73%9.47% 11.44% 11.81%10.26% 27.73% 20.80%0.31% 1.58% 1.50%0.52% 0.83% 3.73%0.59% 2.44% 2.24%1.18% 2.66% 2.44%1.78% 3.61% 3.79%3.27% 5.90% 5.52%

较2024年变动（PCT）1.901.292.650.023.720.42-0.532.292.590.631.612.061.430.203.392.504.77-0.010.003.113.744.691.37-3.90-0.084.893.854.040.030.096.700.00-1.62-0.0210.681.294.5811.172.3410.551.252.012.25

512 781 1078

9.98%

23.94%

22.60%

12.62

0.91%

2.67%

2.50%

1.59（注：三季报部分银行未披露处置AC产生的投资收益数据，我们根据（2025H1处置AC收益占投资净收益比例*2025Q1-Q3投资净收益）进行测算）2025H1末上市银行AC账户累积浮盈约3.3万亿元，占2024年全年营收比例为%。2025H12.5占营收比例超70%；股份行/城商行/农商行分别为4674/2877/431亿元，占营收比例分别为30.8%/56.5%/41.7%。表2：2025H1末上市银行AC账户累积浮盈约3.3万亿元银行类型AC/总资产AC/金融投资AC浮盈规模（亿元）占2024年营收比例2025H120242025H120242025H120242025H12024国有行18.1%18.5%62.9%64.5%249512694170.9%76.5%股份行15.0%15.8%48.5%51.4%4674515030.8%33.9%城商行16.7%17.6%42.2%44.7%2877273056.5%53.6%农商行13.7%14.9%39.5%42.8%43145241.7%43.8%上市银行17.2%17.7%56.7%58.6%329333527258.3%62.4%图上市银行AC账户中政债占比高（2025H1） 图国有行AC账户5Y以上占比高（2025H1）政府债 政金债 企业债 金融债 非标 其他81.4%78.3%81.4%78.3%75.5%60.6% 60.8%0%国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行 上市银行

1M以内 1-3M 3M-1Y 1-5Y 5Y以上 其他5%4 % 4%4 %4 %8.90.85%4 % 4%4 %4 %8.90.80%国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行 上市银行、各银行财报 、各银行财报225年前三季度上市银行整体C账户浮盈兑现比例为3.0，卖出存量债券规模约为2.04万亿元。国有行/城商行模分别为8719亿元/6868亿元/3717亿元/1079亿元，卖出比例分别为2.26%/5.29%/5.57%/9.65%AC=2025Q1-Q3AC（AC银行类型账面价值累积浮盈兑现浮盈兑现浮盈占比卖出债券规模2024年末2024年末2025Q1-Q3-2025Q1-Q3①②③④=③/②⑤=银行类型账面价值累积浮盈兑现浮盈兑现浮盈占比卖出债券规模2024年末2024年末2025Q1-Q3-2025Q1-Q3①②③④=③/②⑤=④*①国有行369840269416092.26%8719股份行11031951502735.29%6868城商行4801227301525.57%3717农商行7792452449.65%1079上市银行 535963 35272 1078 3.06% 20384图9：2025H1末上市银行AC账户累积浮盈约3.3万亿元银行名称工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行邮储银行交通银行招商银行兴业银行浦发银行中信银行民生银行光大银行平安银行华夏银行浙商银行北京银行上海银行江苏银行宁波银行南京银行杭州银行长沙银行成都银行重庆银行贵阳银行郑州银行青岛银行苏州银行齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行厦门银行渝农商行沪农商行青农商行常熟银行紫金银行无锡银行张家港行江阴银行苏农银瑞丰银行国有行股份行城商行农商行上市银行

AC/总资产2025H1 202420.3% 16.7% 21.1% 10.3% 9.6%24.2% 17.3% 15.7% 17.7% 12.3% 11.2% 17.8% 15.4% 12.8% 18.7% 13.2% 14.4% 24.6% 13.2% 13.3% 16.2% 21.0% 20.2% 14.4% 22.5% 18.2% 16.7% 15.5% 9.9% 18.0% 14.2% 22.7% 13.9% 16.7% 13.5% 13.4% 12.2% 3.7% 4.5%15.8% 8.4% 11.4% 13.3% 18.1% 16.7% 13.7% 17.2%

AC/金融投资2025H1 68.1% 63.0% 68.6% 41.1% 71.2% 60.3% 50.3% 54.2% 43.1% 39.8% 59.0% 47.7% 45.5% 49.6% 42.3% 40.9% 60.0% 33.6% 30.9% 37.2% 44.8% 48.2% 49.5% 54.6% 44.7% 54.0% 41.0% 26.9% 42.0% 44.0% 66.6% 40.5% 41.7% 37.1% 37.8% 43.9% 19.3% 52.4% 30.5% 36.5% 40.0% 62.9% 42.2% 39.5% 56.7%

AC余额（亿元2025H1 2024105952 9852074186 7429799028 9463437890 3350643938 4306526672 2581819864 1920518808 1896111865 1326611045 1119013856 1480811125 114157514 78518512 89824428 46416831 68778104 90936321 59064627 38854707 31474690 48562522 27231978 19022209 16941352 12891199 11251148 936747 7631355 1224726 6681224 1356603 5682718 29722088 1865678 789488 503100 121430 414187 267237 305303 268305 286387667 36984050343 480127535 7792352

AC浮盈（亿元2025H1 20246253 67916161 65957109 73622199 22721991 22861239 16351149 1458847 944584 554218 246573 492471 504434 469285 342113 141387 370362 399388 414254 188386 340429 482101 2765 7753 5546 47178 5368 7028 2757 64-18 1661 7033 32180 20979 9240 5737 333 1215 1814 1912 1611 159 1224951 269414674 51502877 2730431 45232933 35272

兑现浮盈（亿元）2025Q1-Q3 2025H1 2024148 0 19104 12 19202 63 4321 8 18122 48 1712 4 117 0 3671 44 4564 0 2828 10 1732 18 1021 17 120 0 72 0 117 4 020 11 863 16 240 0 00 0 020 11 89 8 09 1 013 4 80 0 50 0 05 0 04 4 04 2 00 0 00 0 06 0 10 0 06 3 90 0 012 0 23 0 14 2 26 0 34 2 07 3 30 0 01 0 0609 134 118273 92 145152 59 5444 11 191078 296 337

2025Q1-Q3（亿元）浮盈兑现比例 卖出债券规模2.18% 21501.58% 11752.74% 25940.94% 5.33% 22960.73% 1.15% 7.53% 142711.63% 154311.56% 12946.58% 4.19% 4.19% 0.64% 11.73% 5.29% 15.76% 1434-0.09%0.00% 05.95% 1871.77% 8634.18% 93116.96% 3230.00% 00.34% 48.67% 986.06% 5715.72% 1200.05% 10.64% 48.13% 1100.00% 02.97% 880.00% 020.85% 16583.24% 41831.75% 3934.74% 14423.45% 6340.99% 1253.15% 810.29% 292.26% 87195.29% 68685.57% 37179.65% 10793.06% 203842、预计Q4上市银行需卖出约9000亿债券支撑非息收入20252024AC5431.54%，卖出债9000//2382亿元/3942/2217/545图10：我们测算Q4上市银行AC需兑现浮盈543亿元 图11：我们测算Q4上市银行AC需卖出约9000亿债券0

兑现浮盈（亿元） 兑现比例（右轴）6.42%5.17%4.40%0.54%1.54%国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行6.42%5.17%4.40%0.54%1.54%

7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%

500040003000200010000

AC卖债规模（亿元）国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行具体测算过程如下：第一步：测算2025Q4金融投资非息收入规模：设2025年金融投资非息收入规模（投资净收益+公允价值变动净收益）持平于2024年。第二步：测算2025Q4AC需兑现浮盈规模：FVOCIAC需兑现浮盈交易盘非息收入规模（③）—稳定基金分红收入（④；基金分红收入（2025H1）=基金投资占交易盘比例*FVTPL产生投资收益。第三步：对比AC需兑现浮盈比例与剩余浮盈兑现空间，取较小值为实际兑现比例。银行名称金融投资非息收入其中：基金分红AC需兑现浮盈Q1-Q3已兑现比例Q4需兑现浮盈比例剩余浮盈兑现空间Q4实际兑现浮盈AC需卖出债券规模20242025Q1-Q3银行名称金融投资非息收入其中：基金分红AC需兑现浮盈Q1-Q3已兑现比例Q4需兑现浮盈比例剩余浮盈兑现空间Q4实际兑现浮盈AC需卖出债券规模20242025Q1-Q3比例规模累积浮 余① ② ④ ⑥ 盈 ⑧=10%-⑦⑨=min（⑦，⑧） 额工商银行532 528建设银行268 326农业银行391 428中国银行399 364邮储银行368 3153.63 0.30 3.33- - -- - -34.77 2.76 32.0153.20 18.39 34.812.18% 0.05% 7.82%1.58% - -2.74% - -0.94% 1.41% 9.06%5.33% 1.52% 4.67%0.05% 3.33- -- -1.41% 32.011.52% 34.8148.3--472.1655.9交通银行29620492.1515.7576.400.73%4.67%9.27%4.67%76.401206.0招商银行360214145.4030.59114.811.15%7.88%8.85%7.88%114.811512.4兴业银行394283111.0348.5562.487.53%6.62%2.47%2.47%23.35469.1浦发银行27619778.5326.5451.9911.63%9.38%----中信银行331197133.8040.7493.0611.56%37.90%----民生银行141146---6.58%-----光大银行18076104.0224.0479.984.19%15.86%5.81%5.81%29.30663.3平安银行277139138.1529.15109.004.19%23.25%5.81%5.81%27.25456.3华夏银行23683153.1858.8294.360.64%27.57%9.36%9.36%32.05841.0浙商银行1498464.7815.6449.1411.73%34.77%----北京银行1428755.0020.2734.735.29%9.39%4.71%4.71%17.42324.0上海银行16913533.577.1326.4415.76%6.63%----江苏银行18410678.0844.3533.738.15%10.00%8.15%33.73481.5宁波银行1379442.9113.2729.640.00%15.74%10.00%10.00%18.83388.5南京银行21012584.7321.5063.235.95%18.61%4.05%4.05%13.76127.4杭州银行985047.5413.6433.901.77%7.03%8.23%7.03%33.90341.3长沙银行4141---34.18%-----成都银行433013.043.289.7616.96%12.64%----重庆银行25204.970.964.010.00%7.28%10.00%7.28%4.01123.4贵阳银行321319.234.6714.560.34%30.74%9.66%9.66%4.58124.6郑州银行20127.211.056.168.67%11.62%1.33%1.33%0.7115.0青岛银行20173.501.641.866.06%2.66%3.94%2.66%1.8624.9苏州银行301713.364.209.1715.72% 34.27%----齐鲁银行201010.273.776.500.05%10.22%9.95%9.95%6.33121.9兰州银行16115.481.144.340.64%27.95%9.36%9.36%1.4562.5西安银行231112.091.8610.248.13%14.60%1.87%1.87%1.3125.4厦门银行1384.491.063.430.00%10.76%10.00%10.00%3.1956.8渝农商行382711.603.018.592.97%4.12%-4.12%8.59122.5沪农商行36324.270.653.610.00%3.94%-3.94%3.6173.6青农商行271710.940.0010.9420.85% 19.30%-19.30%10.94152.3常熟银行16151.380.171.2283.24% 34.94%-16.76%0.5884.3紫金银行67-31.75%0.00%-0.00%0.000.0无锡银行11100.270.040.2334.74%1.29%-1.29%0.235.3张家港行1212-23.45%0.00%-0.00%0.000.0江阴银行990.090.000.0840.99%0.50%-0.50%0.081.5苏农银行13112.260.291.973.15%12.80%-12.80%1.9734.3瑞丰银行1173.460.443.0210.29%24.83%-24.83%3.0270.9国有行22532165184371472.26%0.54%0.54%147