美世-2026年全球投资展望报告：主题与机遇-Themes and opportunities 2026

Themesandopportunities2026PostconsensusAbusinessofMarshMcLennanForewordRegimechangeSupercyclesMegatrendsAppendixForewordInrecentyears,thefoundationsoftheglobaleconomyhavebeguntoshiftinwaysthatfewcouldhaveanticipatedevenadecadeago.Theassumptionsthatonceanchoredmarketconfidenceinthepost-ColdWarera,unencumberedtrade,coordinatedmonetarypolicy,actiononthreatstoenvironmentalcommons,informationreliability,andabroadlysharedbeliefinthebenefitsofglobalization,arenolongersecure.Instead,theworldisenteringanagewhereregionsaregoingtheirownway,institutionsstruggletomaintainlegitimacy,andnewrulesofengagementarebeingwritteninrealtime.Thiswetermthe“Postconsensus”.PowerfulandintersectingforcesfromArtificialIntelligence(AI)toregionalizationarereshapingthecontoursofglobalmarkets.AIisimprovingatadizzyingpace,solvingcomplexproblemswhilecreatingnewvulnerabilitiesanddividingexpertopiniononitsultimateimpact.Theemergenceofhuman-gradeartificialgeneralintelligence(“AGI”)in2026,predictedbytheCEOsoftwoofthelargestAIcompanies1,wouldbeapivotalmomentinhistory;aswecontinueontosuperhumanintelligence,theramificationsareimpossibletoforesee.Globalizationisfalteringasregionalblocssolidify.Tradetensionsaretestinglong-standingalliances,andgeopoliticaluncertaintyhasbecomeaconstantfeature.Climateprogressfalters,andforeverytwostepsforward,thereisonebackwards:aneconomictippingpointhasbeenreachedincleanenergycapacityandgreenmobilitygainstraction.However,fires,deforestationandincreasedextremeweathereventsareconcerning.Societiesaregrowingmorepolarizeddespiteunprecedentedadvancesinhealthandtechnology,andevenineconomics,confidenceingrowthcoexistswithfearsofdebtandmonetaryinstability.Together,thesedynamicsmarktheendofapredictableworldandtheemergenceofonedefinedbycomplexity,contest,andtransformation.Figure1.UncertaintyhasspikedpertheWorldUncertaintyIndexAug08Mar09Aug08Mar09Apr13Aug15Mar16Apr20Aug22Mar23140000Source:WorldUncertaintyI.TheWUIiscomputedbycountingthepercentageoftheword“uncertain”(oritsvariant)intheEconomistIntelligenceUnitcountryreports.GDPweightedaverage.January2008toOctober2025.120000100000800006000040000200000Themesandopportunities20262ForewordRegimechangeSupercyclesMegatrendsAppendixThemesandopportunities20263Thisyear’stheme,“Postconsensus”,capturesalandscapeinwhichthenormsthatguidedportfolioconstruction,riskmanagement,andstrategicallocationfordecadesarebeingreconsidered,reexamined,andinmanycasesoverturned.Yetdisruptiondoesnotsolelyspellrisk.Periodsofuncertaintyanddislocationoftenopenthedoortoopportunityforinvestorswiththelexibilityandforesighttorecognizewherevalueisshifting.Thechallengeandtheopportunity,inapost-consensusworld,istomovebeyondyesterday’sassumptions,toidentifythenewsourcesofresilienceandinnovation,andtopositioncapitaltobenefitnotonlyfromenduringuncertaintybutalsofromthetransformativeforcesthatareremakingtheglobaleconomy.Throughthecourseofthispaper,weoutlinesomeofthekeythemesandopportunitiesweseeoverthenextfiveyearsandbeyond.Tomakesenseofthisevolvinglandscape,wecategorizeourthemesasfollows:•Regimechange:One-of,enduringshiftsinconditions.•Supercycles:Classiceconomicsupercycles(debtandcommoditycycles)andthesupercycleofsocioeconomicparadigms(KondratiefwavesorStrauss-Howesaecula2).•Megatrends:Multi-decadetransitionsgraduallyreshapingtheworld.Thethemeswepresentherecarrywiththemdiferingdegreesofopportunity(andrisk)andthiswillbepriced-inforsomemorethanothers.Investorswillneedtobalanceandprioritizewhichthemesmakesensewithinthecontextoftheirportfolios.Someofthethemeswillonlybesuitableforinvestorswithhighlevelsofgovernancecapacityandrequisiteexpertise,particularlywheretheopportunitiesrelatetoprivatemarkets.Thisyear,thereportisdividedintoeightsections,pullingoutaselectionofourunderlyinginvestmentthemesthatplayoutacrossdiferenttimeframesandpathways,butaresettohaveaprofoundefectoninvestorportfolios.Theseare:•Thesearchforsaferhavens•Re-buildingblocs•Resourcesandresilience•AIhyper-acceleration•Energytippingpoints•Healthcaretransformation•Theunder-appreciatedbioeconomy•FrontierandothertechForewordRegimechangeSupercyclesMegatrendsAppendixThemesandopportunities20264ThesearchforsaferhavensPeriodsofuncertaintyhavealwaysdriveninvestorstowardsafehavens.TheUSdollarhasfilledthatrolefordecades,reliablyrallyingwhenmarketsturnedrisk-of.Atthetimeofwriting,whilethedollarstilltradesnearmulti-decadehighsascapitalseeksstability,itsbehaviorhasgrownlessconsistent.CommentatorshavereferredtotheUSD’s‘smile’(referringtotheUSD’stendencytobenefitfromrisk-onconditionswhenUSgrowthassetsaresupported,andrisk-ofconditionswhenUSTreasuriesaretargeted)becomingmorecrooked,asrisk-ofconditionsareseeingmoneypulledfromfullypricedUSequities.Meanwhile,thelighttoqualityisnolongerroutedsolelythroughthegreenback.Risinginterestinpreciousmetalsandbitcoinrelectsabroaderreassessmentofwhereresilienceandstoresofvaluecanbefound.Theshiftindollarbehaviorsuggestsmorethantacticalrepositioning.ItpointstothefragilityofamonetaryorderthathasunderpinnedmarketssinceBrettonWoods.Thepost-goldstandardera,withthedollarasunrivalledreservecurrency,isnowbeingtestedbyheavydebtburdens,persistentinlation,geopoliticalfragmentation,andgradualdiversificationofcentralbankreserves.Questionsonceunthinkablearenowpartofseriousdebate:coulddigitalassetsevolvefromnicheinstrumentsintosystemicpillars,andcouldtraditionalhavenssuchasgoldorfarmlandreassertthemselvesasanchorsofresilience?Inapost-consensusworld,theissueisnolongerwhetherthedollarisstrongtoday,butwhetheritsdominanceandcurrentpositionwillendureasinvestorsconsiderwheretolandduringlightstoquality.Asalleyeshavebeenonthedollar,itisworthnotingthattheuseoftheeuroininternationalpaymentshasdeclinedsignificantly(seeFigure3).Itisoftenthecrisisthatisnotwidelyexpectedthatcatchesinvestorsunawares.Whilecurrenciescanlosetheirdefensivequalitiesfollowingmajorpoliticalshifts–sterling’spost-Brexitexperiencebeinganotableexample–therecentmovetowardthedollarasa“risk-on”assetislikelymoreanoverreactionthanastructuralshiftandcomesattheendofoveradecadeofrises.AstructuralboosttoUSdollardemandhasarrivedintheformofUSdollarstablecoinsasotherblocsprefertofocusoncentralbankdigitalcurrencies.ThisyearsawthearrivalofregulatoryclaritycourtesyoftheGENIUSAct,drivingsignificantdemandforUSTreasurybills.Meanwhile,goldandbitcoinhavebothbenefitedfromrisingconcernsoverpublicdebtsustainabilityandfringenarrativespredictingthedemiseoffiatcurrency.ForewordRegimechangeSupercyclesMegatrendsAppendixInthisevolvinglandscape,investorsmayneedtoreassesscurrencyhedgingstrategies,particularlyasthedollar’srolecontinuestoevolve.Traditionalstoresofvalue,suchasagriculturallandandgold,arealsoreemergingaspotentialdiversifiersinendowment-likestrategicassetallocations,areminderthattangibleassetsretainstrategicimportanceamiddigitaldisruption.Figure2.Thedollarasapercentageofglobalreserveshasbeenlargelyunchangedoverthirtyyears1001009080706050403020100U.S.dollarEuroBritishpoundJapaneseyenChineserenmimbiOtherSource:FederalReserve,2025.Figure3.Thedollarhasanincreasingshareofinternationalpayments201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024400U.S.dollarEuroBritishpoundJapaneseyenChineserenmimbiOtherSource:FederalReserve,2025.Themesandopportunities20265Themesandopportunities20266Inluenceoverfinancialthinkingischangingrapidly.ThecomedianAmyPoehlerjokedthisyearthat,“Boomersareallaboutmoney.GenXislike:‘Isitallaboutmoney?’Millennialsask:‘Whereisthemoney?’AndGenZislike:‘Whatismoney?’”.Increasingly,investors,particularlyyoungergenerations,turntosocialmedia,wherecontentonthenatureofmoneyandpro-cryptocurrencynarrativesareomnipresent(seeFigure4).AretheyunearthingthecallfromFriedericHayektoprivatizemoney3andbreathingnewlifeintoitviablockchaintechnologyorsimplygivingintothe‘FearOfMissingOut’thatcharacterizesspeculativemanias?Eitherway,agrowingcounter-narrativetoeconomicorthodoxyhastakenholdonsocialmedia,onethatframesthepost-goldstandarderaoffiatmoneyasending,andbitcoinastheinevitablereplacementforsovereigncurrencies.Figure4.ThegrowinginfluenceofsocialmediaonyoungerinvestorsMillionofsubscrMillionofsubscribersasofOctober2025r/stocksr/cryptocurrencyr/wallstreetbets20Mosttrustedsitesadvicefromsocialmedia0LinkedIn7%YouTube34%Others8%Source:Forbes2024(leftandcentercharts),Reddit31October2025(right-handchart).79%of18to41-year-oldshavetakenfinancial5109Themesandopportunities20267Wedisagreewiththatconclusion.Historysuggeststhatreservecurrencystatustendstooutlastthegeopoliticaldominanceofitsissuer.Still,narrativesarepowerful,especiallywhenamplifiedbysentiment-driven,retail-participatedmarkets.Theycreatevolatility,butalsoopportunity,fertilegroundforalphagenerationforinvestorswhocanseparateemotionfromfundamentals.AmongGenZandMillennials,socialmedia-drivenfinancialadviceispervasive,favoringhigh-risk,short-term,andleveragedbets,particularlyincryptoassets.Theintergenerationalwealthtransferexpectedoverthenextdecadecouldamplifylowsintodigitalassets.Yet,fundamentalswilleventuallymatter,andeverygenerationfacesitsmomentofreckoningattheendofaperiodofrecklessfinancialadventurism.WhileAI’simportancewillcontinuefortheforeseeablefuture,whenanysetbackinpricescomesalong,aconfidenceburstofTMTproportionscouldendinterestincryptocurrenciespermanently.Bitcoinremainsoutsideourstrategitslimitedintrinsicvalue,inefficiencyforpayments,highcorrelationwithtechnology,andvulnerabilitytocatastrophicIntraditionalmarkets,fixedincomeportfolioscontinuetoserveasastabilizingforce.Interestrateshaveremainedrelativelystableinrecentmonths,andequity/bondcorrelationsareexpectedtohovernearlong-termaverages.Correlationstendtorisewheninlationorinlationexpectationsincrease,butcurrentinlationremainscontaineddespitetradetensions.Lookingahead,advancesinAIareexpectedtoexertadisinlationaryinluence,helpingtomoderatepricepressuresovertime.Thebriefperiodofpositiveequity/bondcorrelationwasunsurprisingamidratevolatility,butasstabilityreturns,weexpectratestorealignmorecloselywiththebusinesscycle.Notably,startingbondyields,ahistoricallyreliablepredictoroffive-yearreturns,currentlyappearbroadlyattractive.Figure5.Rollingfive-yearequity/bondcorrelations(monthlyobservations,1978-Oct2025)vsrealyieldsEquEquity/bondcorrelation0Source:RobertShillerDatabaseandMercercalculations.RealyieldisestimatedusinglongnominalbondyieldsfromRobertShiller’sdatabasedelatedusingtheUniversityofMichiganone-yearaheadinlationmediansurvey.Theredboxcapturesthebroadphenomenonthatlowornegativerealyieldsenvironmentstendtobecharacterizedbynegativeequitybondcorrelations(bondsmorelikelytodiversify).Thegreenboxcapturesthebroadphenomenonthathigherrealyieldsenvironmentstendtobecharacterizedbypositiveequitybondcorrelations(bondslesslikelytodiversify).Theoverlappingnatureoftheboxesillustratesthatagivenlevelofrealyieldsmayappearconsistentwithbothnegativeandpositiveequitybondcorrelationenvironments;thedirectionofchangeandlevelofvolatilitycanplayanimportantroleindeterminingwhetherthemarketenvironmentisonecharacterizedbypositiveornegativecorrelation.ForewordRegimechangeSupercyclesMegatrendsAppendixThemesandopportunities20268Asinvestmentaccelerates,privateequityandprivatecreditAsinvestmentaccelerates,privateequityandprivatecreditvehiclesareexpectedtoseeoutsizeddemand,fundingtheinfrastructureandinnovationpipelinesrequiredtosupportthistransformation.Privateequitycontinuestofundexcitingandinspiringprojects,yetexitroutesaremoreuncertainandalow-rateenvironmentisnolongerenjoyed.Ourexperiencetellsusthatvintagediversificationisimportantandthatsomeofthebestinvestmentscanbemadeattimeslikethese.Still,theneedtoinvestalongsideGeneralPartnerswhocantellluffromthefutureremainsparamount.Privatedebtcomeswithconsiderableprotections,oftenincludingassetbacking,whichtendtomakeitmoney-goodinapinch,yetoverextendingrisklevelswithlightercovenantsandrecoursecouldbeadecisiontoregretifgrowthdoesnotdeliver.Optionstoconsider•Diversification,diversification,diversification•Tailoredcurrencypolicy:revisitstrategichedge,considerdynamichedging•Considerrealassets•Firedrills:Redefinestressscenarios,potentiallysettriggerpointsandaplaybookofactionssodecision-makingisfast,disciplinedandnotreactiveduringmarketturmoil.ForewordRegimechangeSupercyclesMegatrendsAppendixThemesandopportunities202692.SupercyclesRe-buildingblocsFordecades,globalizationfollowedaneast-westaxis,withlaissez-fairetradeprinciples,just-in-timesupplychains,andsymbioticcapitallows(particularly“Chimerica”)entwiningadvancedeconomieswithemergingmarkets.Thatmodelisnowgivingwaytosomethingnew.Risinggeopoliticalrivalry,regulatorydivergence,andarenewedemphasisonsecurityaredrivingcommerceandinvestmenttoreorganizealonganorth-southaxis.EstablishedeconomiesinNorthAmericaandEuropearestrengtheningtieswithresource-richandfast-growingmarketsacrossLatinAmerica,Africa,andSouthAsia,seekingbothreliablesupplyandaccesstonewsourcesofdemand.Thisreorientationrelectsanowwidelyrecognizedshiftfromefficiencytoresilience.Countriesarediversifyingtradepartnersandredesigningsupplychainstonavigateamorefragmentedglobalsystem.Forinvestors,theimplicationsaretwofold:fracturedproductionnetworks,regionalinlationarypressures,andregulatoryinconsistencyposepersistentrisks,whilenewtradecorridors,investmentincriticalminerals,andinfrastructurethatsupportsverticalintegrationoferdurableopportunities.Theemerginglandscapelooksverydiferentfromthefrictionlessmarketsoftherecentpast,onewherepolicy,politics,andresilienceincreasinglydeterminethetermsofexchange.Overthepast15years,theglobalinvestinglandscapehasbecomeincreasinglyfactionalized,atrendthatacceleratedin2025withtheimpositionofsweepingtarifsonmanyoftheUnitedStates’keytradingpartners.Heightenedgeopoliticalriskhasbecomeadefiningfeatureofthisnewenvironment,asUS-Chinatensionsdeepenandprotectionistpoliciesmultiply.ThepandemicandtheRussia-Ukraineconlictexposedthefragilityofglobalsupplychains,shiftingfocusfromtheefficiencyofsupplytothesecurityofsupply.Tarifshavereemergedasaninstrumentofdiplomacy,impactingtheassumptionsunderlyingdecadesofglobalizationandsignalingarenewederaofeconomicnationalism.In2024,thelatestfullyearmonitored,foreigndirectinvestmentlowsfellby11%4,withlowstowardsEuropecontractingmarkedly(down58%),whileinvestmentintheUS(up23%)grewlargelyduetodatacenterinvestment.Takingabroaderview,economicdevelopmentacrossemergingmarketshasacceleratedthetransitiontowardamultipolarworld,wherecriticalfacetsoftradeandsecuritymaybeincreasinglyorganizedwithinregionalblocsshapedbyregulation,industrialpolicy,andstrategicrivalry.Thedriveforenergysecurity,oncecenteredonnear-termaccesstofossilfuels,particularlynaturalgas,hasevolvedintolong-termcommitmentsto“home-grown”renewableenergyandfriendshoringofstrategicsupplychains.Similardynamicsareevidentacrossothersectors,includingdefense,technology,andresourcemanagement.Protectionistpoliciesaroundcriticalmineralshavesurgedfivefoldoverthepastfiveyears,underscoringgrowingconcernoversupply-chaincontrolandnationalresilience.Thisfocusonresiliencenowextendsdeepintothefinancialsystem.Severalemergingmarketcentralbankshaveincreasedtheirallocationstogold,partlytodiversifyawayfromUSdollar–denominatedassets,partlyasaresponsetoglobaluncertainty.Recentsurveyingsuggeststhatdemandforgoldreservesislikelytocontinue:95%ofrespondentstotheCentralBankGoldReservesSurvey2025feltthatglobalreserveswillincreaseoverthenext12months,withnoneofthe73nationalrespondentssignalingthattheywerelookingtodecreasetheirholdings.Priceappreciationhasnowpushedgoldtoahighershareofglobalforeignreservesthantheeuro5.Morebroadly,somecentralbanksarebeginningtodiversifyreservesbeyondthedollaraltogether,reinforcingagradualbutmeaningfulevolutionintheglobalreservearchitecture.Outsideofthebigtwo(USDandeuro),sterling,yen,Canadiandollar,Australiandollar,andrenminbiallincreasedasashareofreservesoverthelast10years6.ForewordRegimechangeSupercyclesMegatrendsAppendixInvestorinterestingoldisredhot,giventhetailwindfromcentralbankpurchasingandtheexpansionofthemiddleclassesincountrieswheregoldisofhighculturalsignificance,forexample,ChinaandIndia.Goldmaybeareasonablehedgeagainstadollarmoneysupplyincrease,butrecentpricerisesanddifficultiesinestablishingintrinsicvaluearehurdlestoestablishingastrategicallocation.Meanwhile,cybersecurityhasbecomeacriticalfrontierofgeopoliticalrisk.GenerativeAIhasamplifiedboththesophisticationandaccessibilityofcyberthreats;modifiedlargelanguagemodelswithoutguardrailscannowbepurchasedforunder$100.Investmentfraudhasbecomethemostcommontypeofcybercrime,accountingfor$6.6billioninlossesover2024accordingtotheFBI,whilecryptocurrency-relatedfraudhasreached$9billion,disproportionatelyafectingolderinvestors.Asgeopoliticaltensionsintensify,cyberattackshaveevolvedintoamodernformofespionage,conductedbybothstateandindependentactorstargetingcorporationsandcriticalinfrastructure,includingairportsandenergygrids.Forinvestors,cyberisbothariskandanopportunity.Werecommenddevelopingandmaintainingrobustcybersecurityprograms.Cybersecurityisaccessibleasathematicinvestmentinlistedmarkets.However,valuationsatmanypure-playfirmsimplysignificantfuturegrowthisalreadypricedin.Despitethis,boththerisksandopportunitiesincybersecurityremainunderappreciatedinscale.Asglobaltradeandinvestmentrealignalongnewregionalblocs,frontiermarketsinLatinAmerica,Africa,andSouthAsiaareemergingascriticalcomponentsofthisevolvinglandscape.Theseregions,lessdependentonthetraditionaleast-westtradeaxis,oferstrategicopportunitiesforinvestorsseekingresilienceamidgeopoliticaluncertainty.Frontiermarketdebt,inparticular,standsoutasacompellingassetclass.Supportedbystructuralgrowthdrivers,improvinggovernance,andsoundfiscalpolicies,thesemarketsprovidediversificationbenefitsandattractiveyields.TheirrelativeinsulationfromtheintensifyingUS-Chinatradetensionsfurtherenhancestheirappealaspartofanemergingnorth-southaxis,asinvestorsrebuildportfoliosalignedwiththenewcontoursofglobalization.Diversifiedinvestorswillbelookinghardatspreadlevelswithintheirfixedincomeportfolios.Webelievethatemergingmarketdebtandfrontiermarketdebtstillhaveenoughspreadtomaintaintheirplaceinportfolios,whilegovernmentbondsarelikelytoprovidegoodballast.Forincome-orientedorshorter-horizoninvestorslookingtoshakeuptheirfixedincomeportfolios,judiciousallocationstospreadsectorsthatstillofervaluebutwithoutover-extendingriskcanbeexplored,forexample,investment-gradeasset-backedfinance,semi-liquidprivatedebt,andsecuritizedcredit.OptionstoconsiderOptionstoconsider•Cybersecurity–Asanopportunitywithanincreasinglygrowingandaddressablemarket.–Asarisk:developrobustcyber-risksecurityprogramsandcontinuetoupdatethemwithadvancesintechnology.•FrontierMarketDebt–Thelong-terminvestmentopportunityinFMDisdrivenbyseveralstructuralfactors,includingabove-averagegrowthpotential,competitivelabormarkets,abundantcommodityresources,andongoingeconomicandfinancialmarketreforms.•Investorsaversetoshort-terminflationshockscouldincorporateanallocationtocommodityfutures–GoldmaybeareasonableUSdollarhedge,butrecentpricerisesareahurdletoestablishingastrategicallocation.–Inlation-resilienceforthelongtermmaybeachievedthroughequitiesandprivatereal•Tailoredcurrencypolicy(incommonwithprevioustheme)•Diversification(incommonwithprevioustheme)Themesandopportunities202610本报告来源于三个皮匠报告站（）,由用户Id:987597下载,文档Id:1017277,下载日期:2026ForewordRegimechangeSupercyclesMegatrendsAppendixThemesandopportunities202611Resources&resilienceAsglobalsupplychainscomeunderstrain,long-heldassumptionsaboutefficiencyandabundancearebeingtested.Tradetensions,shiftingalliances,andresourcescarcityareforcingcompaniesandpolicymakerstorethinkhowgoodsareproduced,transported,andsecured.Inthisenvironment,classicallyheldassumptionsaboutsupplychainsmaygivewaytoapproachesthatbuildinresilienceanddependlessonglobalintegrationandmoreontransformingindustriestobeleaner,moreadaptive,andlessresource-reliant.Thecirculareconomy,reducingwaste,reusingresources,andrecyclingmaterials,ofersoneavenue,justasitdidinthe1970s.Advancesinmaterialscience,fromsubstitutesforcriticalmineralstonewbio-basedproducts,provideanotherexpansionofthetoolkitavailabletofirmsandinvestorsseekingdurabilityinalesspredictabletradingsystem.ThedominationoflargeswathesofthecommoditycomplexbyChina,andthetighteningofexportrestrictions,ledtothetriplinginpriceofmanyofthefewex-Chinasharesinvolvedintheminingandrefiningofrare