2025年净零进展报告-

WJRLD

ECCNOMIC

FORUM

IncollaborationwithAccenture

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:

Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin2025

WHITEPAPER

DECEMBER2025

Images:AdobeStock,Unsplash

Contents

Foreword3

Executivesummary4

1

Trendsandprogressinindustrialtransformation5

1.1Theyearinreview6

1.2Stateofplayoftheindustrialtransition9

1.3Industrialtransitiondynamicsin202511

2

Enablingsystemsforindustrialtransformation13

2.1Technologylandscapeisadvancingbutuneven14

2.2Low-carbondemandisgrowingtooslowly15

2.3Policyisfragmenting17

2.4Infrastructureisexpandingbutstrained19

2.5Capitalflowsareresilientbutunevenlydistributed20

Strategicpriorities23

Appendix24

Contributors27

Endnotes29

Disclaimer

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Thefindings,interpretationsand

conclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedand

endorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,

Partnersorotherstakeholders.

©2025WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformation

storageandretrievalsystem.

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin20252

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin20253

December2025

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin2025

Foreword

RobertoBocca

Head,CentreforEnergyandMaterials;MemberoftheExecutiveCommittee,WorldEconomicForum

DavidRabley

ManagingDirector;

GlobalEnergyTransitionLead,Accenture

Theindustrialtransitionhasentereditsdecisiveperiod.

Acrosshard-to-abatesectors,thetechnologies

requiredtocutemissionsareproven.Abouthalfofindustrialemissionscanalreadybeabated

withmaturesolutions;therestwilldependon

deeperinnovation,strongerpolicyandenabling

infrastructure.Thetaskaheadisrapidlyscaling

solutionsgloballyandprofitably,ensuringthepathtonetzerostrengthensindustrialcompetitivenessandeconomicgrowth.

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-

AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin2025,

developedbytheWorldEconomicForumin

collaborationwithAccenture,capturesthispivotalmoment.BuildingontheNet-ZeroIndustry

Trackerframework,itassessesprogressacrosseightsectorsthattogetheraccountfornearly

40%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions.

Thisyear’sanalysismarksamomentofadjustmentandacceleration:progressisrealbutuneven.Thenextphasewillhingelessonbreakthroughsand

moreondeployingprovensolutionsthatdeliversecurity,competitivenessandsustainability.

Cleantechnologiesareadvancing,butdeploymentisconstrainedbyhighcosts,policyfragmentationandinfrastructuregaps.

Thefocusisshiftingfrom“Canwe?”to“Can

wedeployatcostandatscale?”undertightening

economic,policyandenergyconstraints.Climate

policyismovingfromvoluntaryambitiontoenforcedaccountability,butunevenlyacrossregions,

complicatingtradeandinvestment.Artificial

intelligence(AI)anddigitalizationareprojectedto

drivenearly10%ofglobalelectricitygrowthby

2030,forcingindustriestosecurelow-carbonpower.Meanwhile,supplychainconcentrationincritical

mineralshasbecomeakeyareatopicofdiscussion.

Fourtrendscharacterizethisnextphase:

1Economicviability:Technologiesare

available,butscaledependsoncost

competitiveness,financingmodelsandrisksharing.A5%riseininterestratescanraisewindandsolarcostsbyabout30%.

2Integration:Synchronizedinvestmentingrids,carbondioxideandhydrogeninfrastructure,

portsandindustrialclustersisessential.

Gridspending,about$400billionannuallytoday,mayriseto$483billionby2030,

yetBloombergNEF(BNEF)estimates$811billionperyearwillberequiredfornetzero.

3Accountability:Verifiedcarbonintensityisbecomingcentraltolicensing,financingandtrade.TheEU’sCarbonBorderAdjustment(CBAM)andexpandingEmissionsTrading

System(ETS)frameworkswillcoverover

45%ofregionalindustrialemissionsby2030.

4Innovation:Progressdependson

loweringthecostofcapital,buildingsharedinfrastructureandaligningglobalstandards.Fewerthan10%ofhydrogenprojectsand

underhalfofcarboncapture,utilizationandstorage(CCUS)projectshavereachedfinalinvestmentdecision(FID).Themainbarrierisnottechnology,butalackofclearpolicyandreliabledemand.

Thetransitionisenteringamorecomplex

phasemarkedbyregionaldivergenceandsystem

interdependence.Successwilldependonhow

effectivelymarkets,governmentsandindustries

alignacrossdemand,policy,infrastructureandcapitaltomakeproventechnologiesinvestableatscale.

Thispapercallsforcollectiveactiontoscalewhatworkstoday,de-riskthenextwaveofinnovationanddelivercompetitive,cleanindustrialsystems.

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin20254

Executivesummary

2025marksadefiningmomentfor

industry–wherecompetitiveness

andproductivity,nottechnologyalone,definesustainabletransformation.

Thispastyearwasadefiningmomentforthe

industrialtransition–definedbytherealitiesof

scalingamidtighteningeconomicsandrising

energydemand.Acrosshard-to-abatesectors–aviation,shipping,trucking,steel,cement,

aluminium,primarychemicals,andoiland

gas–technologiestocutemissionsexist,but

scalingnowdependsonbankability,profitability,infrastructureandexecutionratherthaninvention.

Thisyear’seditionfindsthatconfidence

intechnologyremainshigh,butprogressis

constrainedbyenablingsystems.Roughlyhalf

ofindustrialemissionscanbeabatedwithmaturesolutions;theotherhalfdependsondeeper

innovation,strongerpolicysupport,plusenablinginfrastructure.Hydrogenandcarboncapture,

utilizationandstorage(CCUS)remaininearly

stages,progressingthroughpilots,butfewer

than1in10projectsreachthefinalinvestment

decision.Theprimaryconstrainthasshiftedfromtechnicalfeasibilitytoeconomicandoperational

viability.Energycosts,policyfragmentationand

infrastructuregapsnowdeterminewhatcanscale.

Reachingnet-zeroacrossthesesectorswillrequirearound$30trillioninadditionalinvestment,57%

fromthebroaderecosystem–grids,ports,carbondioxide(CO2)andhydrogeninfrastructure–and

43%fromindustryitself.WhileEuropetightens

compliance,theUS–traditionallyincentive-led–

facesgrowinguncertaintyfollowingtherollbackofseveralclean-energymeasures,includingrenewableandelectricvehicletaxcredits.Thisfragmentationisredefiningindustrialcompetitiveness–marketsnowoperateunderdifferentenvironmentalstandards,

andcostsandincentivesrarelyalign.Theresultisamulti-speedtransition.Cleanenergyinvestmentwillreach$2.2trillionin2025–twicethatoffossilinvestment–but90%ofthiscapitalsince2021hasgonetoadvancedeconomiesandChinaaswellasproventechnologies,leavingemergingmarketsandearly-stagesolutionsunderfunded.

Severalstructurallessonsemerge.

Policyfragmentationisreshapingmarkets:Regionsaremovingtowardscompliance

andaccountability,butthroughdivergentmixesofincentives,carbonpricinganddisclosureframeworks.

Economicviabilitydefinesscale:Risingfinancingcosts,combinedwithweakdemandforlow-carbonsolutions,constraininvestment.Competitiveness

dependsonreducingemissionswhilemaintainingcostadvantagethroughbankableprojects,

predictableofftakesandcrediblepolicyframeworks.

Integrationforscalewilldeterminesuccess:

Thenextphasedependsonaligningtechnology,

infrastructure,policyandcapitalsoprovensolutionscanscaleprofitablyandpredictably–connecting

powergrids,CO2transportandstoragenetworks,hydrogencorridorsandintegratedindustrialclusters.Lookingahead,severalpriorityactionsstandout.

–Createdemandcertaintythroughstandardizedgreen-materialcontracts,publicprocurement

andbuyers’alliances.

–Buildsharedinfrastructure–integratedpower,hydrogenandCO2transportandstoragenetworks–thatreducescosts

anddrivescross-sectorscaling.

–Lowerthecostofcapitalviablendedfinance,carboncontractsfordifferenceandrisk-sharingtools,particularlyinemergingmarkets.

–Scalemarket-readysolutionswhile

nurturinginnovation–fast-trackelectrification,efficiencyandstorage;supporthydrogen

andCCUSwhereviableandenhanceenergysecurityandgrowth.

–Balancetop-downframeworkswithbottom-upinnovationbyaligningstablepolicydirectionwithflexible,locallydrivenbusinesssolutions.

Themessagefrom2025isclear:industrial

transformationisadvancing,butprogressremainsincomplete.Thenextfrontierrequiresgovernmentsandindustriestoworkintandemsothatlow-

carbontechnologiesbecomeinvestable,scalable,inclusiveandgloballycompetitive.

1

Trendsandprogressinindustrialtransformation

Fragmentedpoliciesandtradearereshaping

industrialtransition–progressisreal,butscalingnowdependsoneconomicsandexecution.

Cleantechnologydeploymentisprogressing–forinstance,globalelectricityuseinindustrygrewbyalmost4%in

20241–yetoveralldeliveryisconstrainedbyinputprices,infrastructuregapsandunevendemandgrowth.

Divergentregionalframeworksandcarbonstandardsaredrivingasymmetriesintradeandinvestment,

creatingunevenplayingfieldsacrossmarkets.

Keytakeaways

Policyfragmentationis

redefiningcompetitiveness

Realmomentum,but

progressunderpressure

Integrationis

thenextfrontier

Scalingrequiresmovingbeyondone-offlow-carbonprojectstowardsintegratedportfolios,supportedbyalignedinnovation,infrastructureandfinance.

Technologyisadvancing,butviabilitysetsthepace

Roughly50%ofindustrialemissionscanalreadybeabatedwithmaturetechnologies,yetscalingnowdependson

bankability,demandcertaintyandfinancialfeasibility.

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin20255

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin20256

Theyearinreview

1.1

Inaworldofrisingdemand,shiftingtrade

patternsanddigitalandtechnologicaldisruption,thecentralquestionishowindustrycanremain

competitivewhileacceleratingtheenergy

transition.Canindustrialsystemssustaingrowthandefficiencywhilecuttingemissions,adapting

tonewenergydynamics,andmaintainingsecurity

andcohesioninanincreasinglyfragmentedgloballandscape?

Table1summarizeshowkeydynamicshave

evolvedsince2024highlightingwhereprogresshasstalled,momentumhasshiftedandnew

constraintshaveemerged.

2025inreview–whathaschanged?

TABLE1

Topic

Netzero

Economic/capital

Tariffsandtradepolicy

Greentechnology

AI–energynexus

2025update

Progressisuneven;corporateambitioncontinuestorise,yetregionalpolicymomentumisdiverging(EU,MiddleEast,Indiapositive;USrollback);

companiesshiftingtowardscommerciallydrivendecarbonizationstrategies

Rateseasedslightly,butbottlenecksshiftedtoprojecteconomics/bankabilitywithexchange-ratevolatilityraisingcostsinemergingmarkets

Nowcentral,withnewtariffsandpolicy

uncertaintyaffectingsupplychains,raisingcostsandrefocusingonself-reliance

Deploymentremainsuneven:mature

technologies(renewables,electrification

andstorage)arescalingrapidly,whilehydrogenprogressremainssubduedamidcostpressuresanddemanduncertainty

Nowfullyoperational,drivingasurgein

electricitydemandandaraceforgreen

electronsandgridaccess,whilealsoopeningnewopportunitiestooptimiseenergyassetsandsystems

2024snapshot

Strongpolicymomentumand

expandingcorporatenet-zero

pledges;someefficiencyand

emissionsimprovements,thoughprogressremainsinsufficient

Highinterestratesmadecapitalavailabilityabindingconstraint

Limitedpolicyattention;marginaltoanalyse

Strongpolicysupportfor

emergingsolutionssuchas

hydrogen,biofuelsandCCUS;earlypilotsshowingpromise

Strategicrelevance

Nascenttechnologywithspeculativebenefits

个

个

Note:Arrowindicatestheoveralltrendinmomentumsince2024.

Source:WorldEconomicForum.

Together,theseshiftsmark2025asayearoftransitionundertension.Thefoundationsfor

reducingemissionsinheavyindustryexist,butareincreasinglyshapedbyregionalasymmetryandtechnologicaldisruption.

Newgrowthenginesarereshapingenergy

demand.Thesurgeofelectrification(+4.3%in

2024),2automationandartificialintelligence(AI)

hascreatednewindustrialloadsandalteredthe

geographyofenergyuse.In2024,globalenergy

demandrose2.2%,wellabovethedecades

average,withAIanddatacentresaloneprojectedtodrivenearly10%ofglobalpowerdemandgrowthby2030.3Theseconcentratedandinflexibleloadsareredefininghowgridsareplanned,financedandoperatedtestingresilience,reliabilityandcost

efficiencyinrealtime.

Industryaloneaccountedfornearly40%ofglobalelectricitydemandgrowthin2024.Industrial

electricityuserosenearly4%amarked

accelerationfrom2023,drivenbyexpansioninelectro-intensivemanufacturingandbroaderindustrialrecovery.4Thissurgeinindustrial

electrificationsignalsprogressbutalsointensifiespressureongrids,supplychainsandpowercosts.

Meanwhile,carbondioxide(CO2)emissionsrose

0.9%to38.2gigatonnes(Gt)ofCO2in2024a

recordhigh(Figure1).Emissionstrendsvarysharplybysector,withrecentdeclinesincementandsteel,whileaviation,aluminiumandprimarychemicals

shownotableincreases.Undercurrentpolicies,

emissionsareprojectedtoremainnear38Gt

through2035,showingnosustaineddecline.Statedpolicypledgescouldmodestlycutemissionsabout1%peryearto2050butonlytheNetZeroby2050Scenario,asoutlinedbytheInternationalEnergy

Agency(IEA),deliversastructuraltransformation,

requiringanearly7%annualdropinglobalemissionsthisdecade(Figure2).5Thisdivergenceunderscoresthatreducingemissionsinhard-to-abatesectors

remainsthedefiningchallengeofthedecade.Heavyindustries,suchassteel,cement,aluminium,oil

andgas,andtrucking,remaincentraltoindustrial

valuechainsandaccountforadominantshareof

globalemissions(nearly40%),exposingthedelicatebalancebetweenenergysecurity,affordability,

andclimateambition.

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin20257

1

FIGURE

CO2emissionsinhard-to-abatesectorsinGtCO2equivalent(CO2e),2019vs.2024

YoYchange*

+6.4%

+2.7%

+0.6%

-0.4%+4.1%

-3.5%+2.3%

-6.4%

Aviation

-0.9%

Shipping

-2.2%

Trucking

10.1%

Steel

0.0%

Aluminium**

+2.7%

Cement

-5.3%

Primary

chemicals

Oilandgas***

+9.7%

-3.8%

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0

●2019●2024

*Year-on-year(YoY)changerepresents2024vs.2023(exceptforoilandgaswhichis2022vs2021);**Aluminiumandprimarychemicals2024databasedonAccentureanalysis;***Oilandgasdatafor2018–2022sincedataonwards2023notavailable;oilandgasreferstoScope1and2emissions.

Source:WorldEconomicForum.

FIGURE2WorldCO2emissionsprojectioninGtCO2e,2024–2050

GtCO2e

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

20102024203520402050

●StatedPoliciesScenario

●CurrentPoliciesScenario

●NetZeroEmissionsby2050

Source:InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA);WorldEconomicForum.

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin20258

In2024,globalCO2emissions

rose0.9%toabout38Gt–thehighestonrecord–as

energydemandclimbedroughly2%,including

a4%increase

inelectricityuse.

Technologyprogressisreal,butscaling

remainsconstrainedbysystemreadiness.

Energysourcesarediversifying,butinvestment

andpolicyclaritycontinuetolag.Renewablesandnucleararecompetingtoanchorsupplyforbothindustrialanddigitaldemand,yetcoststructures,permittingtimelinesandinfrastructurebottlenecksremainconstraints.Sustainableaviationfuel

(SAF)isadvancingfrompilotstoearlyscale:globaloutputisexpectedtoroughlydoubletoabout2

milliontonnes(MT)in2025(approximately0.7%ofjetfuel)6–astepupthatisstillfarshortofneeds.Asiaisaddingcapacityfasterthanlocaldemand,likely

exportingsurplusandeasingpricesatthemargin.

TheEU’sReFuelEUmandates(2%SAFin2025,

rampingsteeplythereafterto70%by2050)7aresettostrengthendemandsignalsandaccelerateuptake.

Yetthetransitionisadvancingunderfinancialandstructuralstrain.Energypriceshaveeasedfromtheircrisispeaks,butvolatilitypersists,

erodingcompetitivenessforenergy-intensive

userssuchaschemicals,aluminiumanddigital

infrastructure,andexposinghowfragileindustrialcompetitivenessremainsincompetitivecost

environment.Investmentpatternsareshifting

too:cleanenergyinvestmentremainsresilient,

expectedtoreach$2.2trillionin2025,roughly

twicethecapitaldirectedtofossilfuels.8Yetannual

growthhasslowedto11%in2024,downfrom

the24–29%expansionofpreviousyears.9Volatileinterestrates,fiscaltighteningandriskaversion–

particularlyinemergingeconomies–havemade

cleancapitalmoreexpensive,withexchange-ratevolatilityfurtherraisingfinancingcostsanddeterringforeigninvestment.

Overlayingallofthisisanewgeographyof

energyandtrade.Tariffs,regionalcarbonpricesandexportcontrolsareredrawingtradeandtechnology

routes,reshapingcoststructuresandsupplychains,andcreatingamoreregionalizedenergylandscape.Demandforkeymineralssurgedin2024–lithiumupnearly30%,nickel,cobalt,graphiteandrareearths

rising6–8%year-on-year(YoY),10andbatterydemandup25%,drivenbyelectrification.11Yetsupplyremainshighlyconcentrated:Chinacontrolsaround70%

ofglobalearthproductionandprocessesalmost

90%oftheworld’srareearthelements,12intensifyingcompetitionforaccessandcreatingpressureon

otherregionstosecurealternativesuppliersand

diversifysourcing.Asglobalsupplychainsreorganizearoundresilienceratherthanefficiency,affordabilityandsecurityareincreasinglyseenasprerequisites

forsustainability,nottrade-offs.Thetransitionwilladvanceonlyasfastasaccesstotheseessentialmaterialsallow,becausecriticalmineralsunderpinmanylow-carbontechnologies.

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin2025

BOX1

shipping,trucking,steel,cement,aluminium,primarychemicals,andoilandgas–theNZITbenchmarksactualsystemperformanceandreadinesstotransform.

Systemperformanceisassessedthrough

indicatorssuchasindustryoutput,operationalprocessintensity,energymix,andvaluechainemissionsandoffsets,providingaclearviewofactualsectoralprogress.Readinessis

assessedacrossfiveenablers:technology,demand,policy,infrastructureandcapital.

Thesedimensionshighlightwherestructural

conditionsareinplace–andwheregapsremain–toaccelerateindustrialtransformation.

Eacheditionalternatesbetweena

comprehensivequantitativeassessment

(2024edition)andafocusedupdate(thisedition),ensuringcontinuityofinsightswhilebalancing

depthwithefficiency.TheNZITintegrates

globalnet-zeropathwaysfromkeyinternationalandsectoralbodiesandindustryroadmaps,

comparingbusiness-as-usualtrajectorieswithnet-zero-alignedpathwaystorevealthescaleofactionrequired.

Bycombiningannualpulsecheckswith

periodicdeepdives,theNZIThelpsdecision-makersprioritizeinterventions,tracksectoralprogress,andacceleratethetransitionofthehard-to-abatesectors.

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin2025marksanewphaseintheevolutionoftheNet-

ZeroIndustryTracker(NZIT)focusingona

qualitativeassessmentofprogress,readinessandsystemalignmentacrosstheworld’smostemission-intensivesectors.Itfocusesontwocorequestions:

1Howfastaresectorsprogressingtoday?

2Whatconditionsmustbestrengthenedtoacceleratetheirtransformation?

Thisyear’seditiontakesadifferentform.

Ratherthanservingasadatatracker,whichwill

bemadeavailableonline,the2025whitepaper

synthesizesthemainsystem-levelbarriersand

enablersshapingindustrialtransition.Itbuilds

ontheNZIT’sanalyticalframeworkbutfocuses

oninterpretation,readinessandscalingdynamics.Thequantitativedashboardsandsectordatawillbereleasedseparately,providingdata-drivensnapshotsandindicatorsthatcomplementthisnarrativeassessment.

LaunchedbytheWorldEconomicForum

in2022,theNZITprovidesafact-based

frameworktoassessthedecarbonization

progressofhard-to-abateindustriesagainstnet-zerotargetsfor2030and2050.Coveringeightemission-intensivesectors–aviation,

ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin20259

Stateofplayoftheindustrialtransition

1.2

In2025,therehasbeenprogressinindustrial

transition,thoughitremainsuneven(Table2)–

electrificationisexpanding,renewablegenerationisacceleratingandenergystorageisscalingrapidly.In2024,renewablesaccountedfor92%ofnew

electricitycapacity,13whilesalesofelectrictruckssurpassed90,000,growing80%YoY.14

Atthesametime,scale-upisconstrained

morebyeconomicsandsystemreadiness

thanbytechnology:fewerthan1in10clean

hydrogenprojectshavereachedfinalinvestmentdecision(FID),15reflectingfinancing,permittingandinfrastructuregapsthatlimitdeployment

andprofitability.

Sectoralsnapshot:demandgrowth,low-carbonsupplyandemissionstrends

TABLE2

Sector

1.108(+6.4%)

0.847(+2.7%)

1.968(+0.6%)

2.750(-0.4%)

1.162**(+4.1%)

2.324(-3.5%)

0.971**(+2.3%)

8.8trillionRPK*

(actualpassengertrafficcarried)

121.7trilliontkm*(annualdistancecovered)

35.1trilliontkm*

(annualdistancecovered)

1,883MT

(annualproduction)

113MT

(annualproduction)

3,950MT

(annualproduction)

754MT

(annualproduction)

+10.4%

+5.5%

+1.3%

-1.1%

+4.6%

-3.9%

+3%

Aviation

Shipping

Trucking

Steel

Aluminium

Cement

Primary

chemicals

Oilandgas

Emissions(GtCO2)and

YoYchange(2024vs2023)

YoYchangeinactivity(2024vs2023)

Activity

Oil:+4%

Oil:103mbpd*

bcfd*

Gas:+1.5%

Gas:411

(annualproduction)

5.100***(-6.4%)

*RPK=revenuepassenger-km;tkm=tonne-km;mbpd=millionbarrelsperday;bcfd=billioncubicfeetperday.**DatasourcedfromWorldEconomicForum.***Latestdataavailablefrom2022.

Sources:AirportsCouncilInternationalWorld&InternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO).(2025).JointACIWorld-ICAOpassengertrafficreport,trendsandoutlook;InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).(2025).WorldEnergyOutlook2025;WorldSteelAssociation.(2025).WorldSteelinFigures2025;InternationalAluminiumInstitute.(n.d.).Primaryaluminiumproduction;InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).(2025).Oil2025:Analysis

andforecaststo2030;InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).(2025).Gas2025:Analysisandforecaststo2030.

Hard-to-abatesectorsareenteringanewphase.

Efficiencyremainsacriticallever–particularlyin

aviation,shippingandtrucking–wheredesignandoperationaloptimizationdelivernear-termemissioncuts.Inaviation,forinstance,aircraftfuelefficiencyimprovedbyaround2.5%peryearoverthepast

decade,limitinga35%riseinairtraveldemand

toonlya20%increaseinenergyuse.Inshipping,activityrosenearly30%between2015and2024,yetoildemandincreasedbylessthan5%toaround

5millionbarrelsperday(mbpd),thankstostrongefficiencygainsandgradualfueldiversification.16Meanwhile,industriessuchassteel,aluminium

andcementaretransitioningfromtraditional,

high-emissionprocessestowardsfuelswitchingtonaturalgas,hydrogen,electrification,recyclingandcarboncapture.Truckingexemplifiesthisdualtransition,withbattery-electricvehiclesscalingforshort-haulandhydrogenfuelcellsemergingfor

heavyfreight.

Whileaviationandshippingareadvancingsystem-wideagendasthroughglobalframeworkssuchastheInternationalCivilAviationOrganization’s(ICAO)andInternationalMaritimeOrganization’s(IMO)

Net-ZeroFramework,therecentIMOdecisionto

delayadoptionbyayeartoOctober2026highlightsunevenglobalregulation.Petrochemicalsandoil

andgasarealsoreframingtheirgrowthmodels,

shiftingfromfuel-basedtomaterials-basedval