2026年全球外汇展望报告：美元下行 格局有变（英文版）-高盛

2026GLOBALFXOUTLOOK

DifferentDollarDownside

EconomicsResearch10January2026|3:59AMGMT

nOurcentralviewremainsthatlessUSoutperformancethanbeforeshouldleadtoaless–strongDollarovertime.WefirstformulatedthatviewinApril2025aswejudgedthattheneteffectofpolicychangesintheUSandabroadwaslikelyto

narrowthespreadbetweenUSperformanceandtherestoftheworldand

diminishdemandforUSassets.WhiletheDollarmovedsubstantiallyloweroversubsequentmonths,itstartedtomovesidewaysaspolicychangesmoderatedsomewhatandtheUSeconomyprovedtobesurprisinglyresilient.WeexpectasimilarpushandpullontheDollarin2026.Ultimately,weexpectashallower

Dollardescentin2026,ledbymorepro–cyclicalcurrencies.

KamakshyaTrivedi

+44(20)7051-4005|

kamakshya.trivedi@

GoldmanSachsInternational

MichaelCahill

+44(20)7552-8314|

michael.e.cahill@

GoldmanSachsInternational

DannySuwanapruti

+65-6889-1987|

danny.suwanapruti@

GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte

TeresaAlves

+44(20)7051-7566|

teresa.alves@

GoldmanSachsInternational

KarenReichgottFishman

+1(212)855-6006|

karen.fishman@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

StuartJenkins

+44(20)7051-4700|

stuart.jenkins@

GoldmanSachsInternational

DifferentDollarDownside

IsabellaRosenberg

+1(212)357-7628|

isabella.rosenberg@

USD:AShallowDescent

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

VictorEngel

+44(20)7051-3862|

victor.engel@

TheWorldSmilesWithYou

OurcentralviewremainsthatlessUSoutperformancethanbeforeshouldleadtoa

GoldmanSachsInternational

LexiKanter

+1(212)855-9701|

alexandra.kanter@

less–strongDollarovertime.We

firstformulated

thatviewinApril2025aswejudgedthattheneteffectofpolicychangesintheUSandabroadwaslikelytonarrowthe

spreadbetweenUSperformanceandtherestoftheworldanddiminishdemandforUSassets.WhiletheDollarmovedsubstantiallyloweroversubsequentmonths,it

startedtomovesidewaysaspolicychangesmoderatedsomewhatandtheUSeconomyprovedtobesurprisinglyresilient.

WeexpectasimilarpushandpullontheDollarin2026.Ontheonehand,the

sturdy

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

globalgrowth

and

morebalancedreturns

thatweexpectshouldweighontheDollar

givenitsusually

negativecorrelation

withrisksentiment.Thisisespeciallytrue

consideringthattheDollarenters2026still

highlyvalued

,which

wethink

reflectsthe

strongreturnonUSassetsformuchofthelastdecade,butisnolongerjustified

underthemorebalancedglobalconditionsweexpectgoingforward.Ontheotherhand,andaswediscussinmoredetailbelow,oureconomistsarewellabove

consensusonUSgrowthforthecomingyear,whichshouldatleastkeepafloor

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html

.

GoldmanSachs2026GlobalFXOutlook

undertheDollarandoccasionallyprovidesomeboostifUSreturnsstarttooutshineothersagain.

However,relativeto2025,whenEuropeancurrenciesandEMcarryledtheway,we

expectadifferentmixofDollardownsidein2026.ThisiscompletelynormalforFX

cycles;

Dollarpeaks

arealwaysfollowedbyaperiodofrelativelyrapidadjustments,butthereafteroftenbecomemuchshallowerunlesstheycoincidewithanincreaseinsparecapacityandmucheasiermonetarypolicy(

Exhibit1)

.

Exhibit1:Dollarpeaksarealwaysfollowedbyaperiodofrelativelyrapidadjustments,butthereafteroftenbecomemuchshallower

PercentchangerelativetopeakRealBroadDollarTWIPercentchangerelativetopeak

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

Feb-02Oct-22

Mar-09Jan-25

Jan-74Dec-16

Mar-85Apr-20

Diamonds:GSForecasts

024681012141618202224

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

MonthsRelativetoDollarPeak

Source:GoldmanSachsFICCandEquities,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Againstthebackdropofsturdygrowthandsteadyprices,weexpectmoreofa

pro-cyclicaltilttoglobalcurrencyreturns(

Exhibit2

),whicharelikelytobemore

constrainedthanlastyearinanenvironmentoflessdifferentiationandlessdisruptivepolicychanges.Wehavethereforeupgradedourviewformanyofthesmall,openG10economiesthattendtoperformwellwhenrisksentimentisstrong.Whilecarry

considerationsstillformakeypartofourtotalreturnexpectations—welookformoreBRLoutperformanceahead—wethinkcurrencieslikeZARthatofferexposuretothecyclicalbetatogetherwithsomecarrybuffershouldreceivegreaterattention.

10January20262

GoldmanSachs2026GlobalFXOutlook

10January20263

Exhibit2:Againstthebackdropofsturdygrowthandsteadyprices,weexpectmoreofapro-cyclicaltilttoglobalcurrencyreturns

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

TooHottoHandle?

Inthefamiliar“DollarSmile”framework,theDollartendstorisewhenUSgrowtheitheroutperforms(the“righttail”)orseverelyunderperforms(the“lefttail”).Afterspendingalmostallof2024atthetopoftheheap,USgrowthexpectationswerefirmlyinthe

middleofthepack—the“trough”oftheDollarsmile—formuchof2025(

Exhibit3

).

Exhibit3:USgrowthexpectationswerefirmlyinthemiddleofthepack—the“trough”oftheDollarsmile—formuchof2025

PercentUSDRealTWIAverageReturnsatDifferentRanksPercent

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

ofRelativeGrowthExpectationsvsG10

0.5

USRelativeGrowth

0.4

0.3

ExpectationsFeb.2024-Feb.2025

AsofOct.+

Nov.2025

0.2

0.1

0.0

USgrowthUSgrowth

-0.1

-0.2

CurrentUSRelative

underperformanceoutperformance

GrowthExpectations

(Dec.2025)

123456789

Note:GrowthmeasuredusingConsensusEconomics1yaheadGDPexpectations.Monthlyreturns.SmallerrankdenotesUSoutperformance/largerrankdenotesUSunderperformance.Sample:1995-Present.FirstbucketisanaveragebetweenthelasttwobucketsofUSgrowthunderperformanceduetoalimitednumberofobservations.

Source:ConsensusEconomics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,Bloomberg

10January20264

ThissimpleframeworkcoincideswellwiththeDollar’sperformancein2025,anditalsohelpsillustratewhatweseeasthekeyupsiderisktotheDollar.Whileexpectationsfor

USgrowtharestillnearthetroughrightnow,oureconomistsarewellaboveconsensusonUSgrowthanditwouldnotbetoofarfromourbaselineforUSperformancetobe

sufficientlystrongtokeeptheDollar’shighvaluationinplace.ThereissomeriskthatthisoutcomewouldleadtolargermovesinFXthanotherassetclassesaftertheDollar’s

sharpdeclinein2025.

USExceptionalism—DiminishedorFinished?

Whileourbaselinemacro/marketforecastsareconsistentwithasmalldollar

depreciation,alargermoveiscertainlypossible.TheDollarremains~15%overvalued

evenafterthesharpfallin2025,soashifttowardsgreaterconcernaroundtheUSlabormarket—from“joblessgrowth”to“Sahmrule/recession”risks—thatforcestheFedto

cutmoredeeplyshouldseesharperdepreciation,particularlyversusthehighly

undervaluedYen.DeeperratecutscouldalsocomeaboutwithoutrecessionconcernsifareshapedFedpushesfurthertowardthebottomendoftherangeintheFOMC’sdots.Marketshavegenerallyrelaxedaboutinstitutionalrisks,butdeeperUSDdownsidetails,whereoptionalitylooksquitecheapagain,couldbeinplayifthose

institutionalrisks

resurfaceand

realpolicyrates

intheUSdropmoreabruptlythanintherestoftheworld.

AdifferenttypeofdownsideriskfortheDollarcouldcomefromasharperderatinginUStechexceptionalism.DemandforUSequityexposurehasbeenincreasinglyprominentinfundingtheUScurrentaccountdeficitandsupportingtheDollar’srichvaluationin

recentyears.EventhoughweexpectUSproductivitytobenefitfromthespreadofAIintheyearsahead,thereisstillthequestionaboutwhetherthosegainsremainconfinedtotheUSorbroadenoutglobally,andwhetherthereturnsoncapitalinvestedmeetthe

highexpectationsreflectedinloftyUStechequityvaluations.Againstthatcontext,a“DeepSeek2.0”momentmayposeasignificantchallengetotheDollar,beyondourbaselineforecasts.

MoreCyclingthanFrightening

WhileweseeanumberoffamiliardownsideriskstotheDollar,wethinkitisstill

importantto

distinguishbetween

DollardepreciationandDollardominance.Our

forecastforfurther,modestDollardepreciationisconsistentwithmorebalancedglobalgrowthandanovervalued,overperforming,safe–havencurrency.Wehaveseenonly

limitedevidenceofde–DollarizationordisplacementoftheDollar’sdominant

internationalroleinrecentyearsanddonotexpectthistocontributetotheDollar’sperformanceonaday–to–day,orevenyear–to–year,basis.Similarly,wethinkinvestorsoftenfocustoomuchonthepotentialforrepatriationor“flows”todriveFX

performance.Instead,

inourview,

thequestioniswhethertheDollarwillneedto

continuetoadjustlowerinordertoattractcapitaltofundtheUScurrentaccount

deficit.Weusetheseflowsand

cross–assetcorrelations

tohelpgaugechangesinthatdemandfromforeigners.

LowerbutnotThatLow

AfterayearinwhichFXwasoftenatthecenterofmacromarketdiscussions,itisnaturaltoseeasomewhatnarrowerdistributionofoutcomesintheyearahead.Globaltrade

andfiscalpolicyis

unlikely

tofacethesamesortofdisruptionagain.However,weseeanimportantdistinctionbetweencomparingtolastyearandcomparingtowhatispriced

GoldmanSachs2026GlobalFXOutlook

10January20265

intomarketsnow(

Exhibit4

).Policyuncertaintyisstillelevated,andlate–cycledynamicsinstill–imbalancedFXmarketsposeanumberofrisksthatweareconfidentwillprovideopportunitiesinFXyetagain.

Exhibit4:OurmacrovolmodelsindicatedthatEUR/USDimpliedvoliscurrentlyunderpricingmacrouncertainty

VolsEUR/USD3mImpliedVolatility:ActualvsModel-impliedLevelsVols

14

12

10

8

6

4

ActualModel-implied

14

12

10

8

6

4

151617181920212223242526Note:Modelincludes1-yearaheadCPI,GDP,and3minterestrateexpectationsfortheUSandEuroarea,andthe10yratedifferentialvstheUS.Sample:2003-Present.Monthlyfrequency.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,ConsensusEconomics,GoldmanSachsFICCandEquities

Box:FXin2035—FindingFairandGettingThere

We

recently

introducedlong–termforecastsforglobalcurrenciestocomplementoureconomists’

long–termprojectionsandaidinstructuralinvestmentdecisions.Ournewforecastsfor2035includeEUR/USDat1.21,USD/JPYat100,GBP/USDat1.24,andUSD/CNYat5.17.

Long–termFXforecastingexercisesfocusonthemean–revertingpropertiesofrealexchangerates,with

someadjustmentsforstructuralchangesovertime.Academicconsensusshowsthisapproachoutperformsa“randomwalk”andrefutesthecommonmisconceptionthatFXforecastingisafutileexercise.

GSDEER

hasbeentheworkhorsemodelforassessingFX“fairvalue”atGoldmanSachsforthelast30years,andweleanonitagaintoprojectthenext10.Overall,thetrendsinfairvaluesoverthenext10yearsare

consistentwiththoseoverthelast10,albeitslightlysmallerinmagnitude.Thefairvaluationanchorfor

currenciesofeconomiesthattendtotargethigherlevelsofinflationsuchasINR,MXN,ZARandBRL

shouldcontinuetodriftweaker(thatis,higherinUSD/XXXterms).Ontheotherside,lowerinflationin

Switzerland,ChinaandmanyotherAsianeconomiesarguesfornominalcurrencyappreciation.(Exhibit5)

GoldmanSachs2026GlobalFXOutlook

10January20266

Exhibit5:Changesinfairvaluesoverthelast10yearshavemostlybeendrivenbytheinflationcomponent,withlargertermsoftradecontributionsin

commodity-exportercurrencies

ppt

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

ChangeinUSD/XXXfairvaluebetween2015Q4and2024Q4

ppt

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

COP

HUF

MXN

PLN

INR

GBP

CZK

ZAR

BRL

PHP

SEK

CLP

EUR

CAD

NZD

KRW

NOK

IDR

JPY

ILS

SGD

PEN

THB

MYR

TWD

CHF

AUD

CNY

Stronger

versusUSD

Inflation

Termsoftrade

Productivity◆Total

AllinputsarecomputedasadifferentialtotheUS

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Wetakeour12–monthforecastsasthecyclical“startingpoint,”andfrom2027onwardsweembedan

annual20%convergenceofexchangeratestotheGSDEERfairvalueinrealterms(exceptforCNYandCZKwhereweassumea10%ratetoaccountfortightercurrencymanagement).Atahighlevel,ourforecastspointtocontinuedDollardepreciation(Exhibit6)whichisconsistentwithitsstartingpointofaround15%overvaluationinourGSDEERframework.Thatsaid,theDollarhassustainedahighvaluationformuchofthelastdecade,anditispossiblethatfresh,AI–ledproductivitygainswillhelpitdefytheoddsonceagain.MostofourstrongesttotalreturnforecastsareinEM,whichisconsistentwithharvestinglong–termreal

carrypremiaandconvergingproductivity.Inparticular,ournewforecastsshowverystrongtotalreturnpotentialinmanyEMcurrenciesthathavehistoricallystruggledwithinflationcontrol,suchasBrazilandSouthAfrica.Whilenewboutsofpolicypressuresarealwaysarisk,thesestrongforecastsareconsistentwithacademicfindingsthatmarketstendtoovercompensatefordrawdownrisksinEMcurrencies,

especiallyaftereconomicconditionshavealreadyconvergedsubstantially.

10January20267

Exhibit6:OurforecastspointtocontinuedDollardepreciation

Index

Index

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

130

120

110

100

90

USDTWI

80

DXY

70

201320152017201920212023202520272029203120332035

Source:GoldmanSachsFICCandEquities,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

EUR:LookHowFarEU’veCome

FindingFair,AlmostThere

Afterleadingthewayin2025,theEuroenters2026muchcloserto“fair”againstthe

Dollarthanithasbeeninsometime(anditisnowovervaluedonabroadbasis;

Exhibit7

).Partlyasaresult,wethinkitisunlikelythatthecurrencywillbeatthevanguardofstrongperformersversustheDollaragainthisyear.Butevenbeyondthevaluationargument,

thefactorsthatledthecurrencymuchstrongerlastyearseemunlikelytorepeat.TheEuro’smovestartedwithmuchlargerfiscalspendingcommitmentsthanhadbeen

previouslyexpected.ThiswasfollowedbythebroadDollardeclineandan

apparent

shift

ininvestordemandleadingto

shiftinghedgeratios

intheregion.Wethinkthiscombinationgoesalongwaytoexplainingthecurrency’soutperformancerelativetoratedifferentials.

GoldmanSachs2026GlobalFXOutlook

10January20268

Exhibit7:Afterleadingthewayin2025,theEuroenters2026muchcloserto“fair”againsttheDollar

EUR/USDEUR/USD

1.701.601.501.401.301.201.101.00

0.90

Spot

60/40FairValue*

0507091113151719212325

1.701.601.501.401.301.201.101.00

0.90

*60/40fairvalueiscomputedusing60%ofthecorrespondingGSDEERfairvalueand40%oftheGSFEERfairvalue

Source:GoldmanSachsFICCandEquities,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

WhilewedonotexpecttoseeEUR/USDoutperformtothesamedegreeagain,those

driversprovidetheblueprintforwhywethinkthecurrencycancontinuetoappreciatesomewhatfurther.Oureconomists

expect

thatincreasedfiscalspendingwilldelivera

cyclicalupswingtothebeleagueredGermaneconomy,andtherearesomeearlysignsinrecentharddatareleasesthatthisisstartingtomaterialize.Partlyforthisreason,our

equitystrategists

continuetoemphasizetheappealofmoregeographicaldiversificationahead.PreviousperiodsofmorebalancedglobalmarketreturnshavehelpedbenefittheEurogivenitsexposuretotheglobalcycleandpersistentportfoliooutflowsoverthelastdecade.

AlongfortheRide

However,ourrationaleforEUR/USDtokeepmovingtowards1.25continuestorest

mostlyonourDollarview.TheEurohasbeen

stronglycorrelated

withthebroadDollar

overthelastyear,andweexpectthattocontinue(

Exhibit8

).OurFXoutlookismostly

predicatedontheviewthatlessUSoutperformancethanbeforeshouldleadtoaweakerDollarovertime,andtheEuroshouldparticipateinthat.Thisisinpartbecause

Europeanportfolioflowshavebeena

keycomponent

ofthedemandforUSassetsthathavesupportedthestrongDollaroverthelastdecade.Inaddition,whiletheEuroisfarfromthemostcyclicalcurrency,itstilltendstobe

positivelycorrelated

withrisk

sentimentovertime(thoughitalsohassome

safe–havenproperties)

andshouldstandtobenefitsomewhatfromthesturdygrowthbackdropweexpect.

GoldmanSachs2026GlobalFXOutlook

10January20269

Exhibit8:TheEurohasbeenstronglycorrelatedwiththebroadDollaroverthelastyear,andweexpectthattocontinue

IndexEUR/USD

116

118

120

122

124

126

128

GSUSDTrade-WeightedIndex(left,inverted)EUR/USD(right)

1.191.181.171.161.151.141.131.12

1.111.101.091.081.071.061.051.041.031.021.01

Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Don’tLookDown

Inourview,thekeydownsiderisktotheEurostemsfromitsoutperformancerelativetootherassetclassesin2025(

Exhibit9

).Aswediscussedabove,wethinkthiscanbe

explainedbymacrofactors,butitstillleavesthecurrencysomewhatvulnerabletoa

reversalinsentiment.Thiswouldnotbewithoutprecedent;thelasttimetheEuroran

aheadofratedifferentialslikethiswasin2017,whenexpectationsforbetterEuroareagrowthoutturnsledtosignificant,unhedgedportfolioinflowsandacurrencymovethatoutpacedourGSBEERmodelbyawidemargin.However,whenstrongergrowthoutturnsfailedtomaterialize,thecurrencydepreciatedsteadilyin2018–2019tore–linkwith

cyclicalvaluations.Weareconsciousthatrecentlymarketshavebeenrevisingrelative

growthexpectationsbetweentheUSandEuroareawideragain,andweseeaclearriskthat,afterre–runningthe“2017playbook”inEUR/USDthisyear,itmightbetimetoturnthepage.

GoldmanSachs2026GlobalFXOutlook

10January202610

Exhibit9:Inourview,thekeydownsiderisktotheEurostemsfromitsoutperformancerelativetootherassetclassesin2025

Percent

EUR/USDActualvsModel-implied

Performance

Percent

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

CopperPrices

CreditSpreads

EUSovereignSpreads

Nominal2yRateDifferentialConstant

EUR/USD

Fitted

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

Jan25Feb25Mar25Apr25May25Jun25Jul25Aug25Sep25Oct25Nov25Dec25Jan26

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

ThereisalsosomeriskstemmingfromChineseovercapacity.Oureconomists

estimate

thatEuroareaeconomiesaresomeofthemostvulnerabletoa“ChinaShock2.0”.

However,wethinkthisismoreofastructuralriskandourmoreupbeatcyclicalviewfor2026shouldhavemoreofaninfluenceon2026FXreturns.

JPY:ADubiousFunder

WeexpecttheJapaneseYentostrengthenmodestlyoverthecourseof2026,consistentwithsomefurthercompressioninratedifferentialsandroughlyinlinewiththeforwards.Thatsaid,weseescopeforhighervolatilityalongtheway,includingroomforfurther

tacticalweaknessifUSgrowthpicksupinQ1andtheoddsofnear-termFedcuts

decline.Ourbaselinemacroforecastsofsturdyglobalgrowth,furtherdisinflation,andlimitedmonetarypolicydivergencethat’slargelyconsistentwithpricing—thoughwithanevenmoreprocyclicalmixongrowth(higher)andinflation(lower)—oftenhas

mixed

implications

fortheYen.Buttwo-wayrisksaroundboththefiscaloutlookinJapanas

wellastheglobalmacrobackdropleaveplentyofscopeforasharpJPYresponseifthecurrentbaselinegetschallenged.Onthefiscalside,theriskpremiumpricedinfollowingTakaichi’svictoryinearlyOctoberhasbroadlypersisted,proxiedbythegapbetween

USD/JPYspotandthelevelimpliedbyourBEERmodelsincethen

(Exhibit10)

.That

leavesroomforanunwindiffearsofmore

permanentfiscalchanges

donotmaterialize.However,largerfiscalstimulusalongsidegreaterlimitationsontheBoJcouldeasilypushthatpremiumevenhigher,andoureconomistsseespendingrisksasskewedtothe

upside.PMTakaichi’s

reported

considerationofdissolvingtheLowerHousetotriggeranearlyelection,likelyinFebruary,shouldfurtherraisethoseconcernsonthemargin.

GoldmanSachs2026GlobalFXOutlook

10January202611

Exhibit10:TheriskpremiumpricedinfollowingTakaichi’svictoryinearlyOctoberhas

broadlypersisted,proxiedbythegapbetweenUSD/JPYspotandthelevelimpliedbyourBEERmodel

Percent

USD/JPYActualvsModel-Implied

Performance

Percent

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

USD/JPYFitted

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

03-Oct14-Oct23-Oct03-Nov12-Nov21-Nov02-Dec11-Dec22-Dec31-Dec

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Therisksaroundthemacroarealsotwosided.Ontheonehand,theYencould

appreciatemoresignificantlythanweexpectifanyofthelingeringdownsiderisks

materializearoundtheUSlabormarket,Fedindependence,orAIv