【未来能源研究所】克服重型卡车和港口氢气使用的需求障碍-2026.1

OvercomingDemandBarrierstoHydrogenUseinHeavy-

DutyTrucksandPorts

AaronBergman,AlanKrupnick,KatarinaNehrkorn,andYuqiZhu

WorkingPaper26-03January2026

AbouttheAuthors

AaronBergmanisafellowatResourcesfortheFuture(RFF).PriortojoiningRFF,

hewastheLeadforMacroeconomicsandEmissionsattheEnergyInformation

Administration(EIA),managingEIA’smodelinginthoseareas.BeforeworkingatEIA,

BergmanspentalmostadecadeinthepolicyoficeattheDepartmentofEnergy,

workingonabroadarrayofclimateandenvironmentalpolicies.Bergmanhasworked

intheWhiteHouseattheOficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy,managingthe

QuadrennialEnergyReviewandhandlingthemethanemeasurementportfolio,andattheCouncilonEnvironmentalQuality,workingoncarbonregulation.Bergmanentered

thefederalgovernmentin2009asaScienceandTechnologyPolicyFellowwiththe

AmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScience,afterworkinginhighenergy

physics.

AlanKrupnickisanRFFseniorfellowanddirectoroftheIndustryandFuelsProgram.

Krupnickisanexpertontheoilandgassector,reducinggreenhousegasemissions

fromthisandtheindustrialsectors,andcost-benefitanalysis.Inparticular,Krupnick’s

recentresearchfocusesongreenpublicprocurement,decarbonizedhydrogenand

taxcredits,anddevelopingmarketsforgreennaturalgas.Hisportfolioalsoincludes

guidingthevalueofinformationagendacoveredbyourVALUABLESinitiativewith

NASA,thevaluationofreducingasthmarisks,estimatingthevalueofstatisticallife,

andissuesofregulatoryreform.

KatarinaNehrkornisaresearchassociateatRFFwhoseresearchspansacross

internationalclimatepolicyandindustrialdecarbonization.NehrkornearnedherBA

ineconomicsfromtheUniversityofMichigan,afterwardsworkingatDeloitte’sRisk

andFinancialAdvisorydivisionfortwoyears.In2023,shecompletedherMScin

EnvironmentalEconomicsandClimateChangeattheLondonSchoolofEconomics.

YuqiZhuisapolicyanalystexperiencedineconomicsandpublicpolicy,withafocusonenergymodeling,financialanalysis,andindustrialdecarbonization.Hewasasenior

researchassociateatRFF.PriortoRFF,heworkedinthefinancialservicesindustry,

includingrolesincorporatedevelopmentandstrategy.Heholdsbachelor’sdegreesincomputerscienceandeconomicsfromtheUniversityofPennsylvaniaandamaster’s

degreeinpublicpolicyfromtheHarvardKennedySchoolofGovernment.

ResourcesfortheFuturei

OvercomingDemandBarrierstoHydrogenUseinHeavy-DutyTrucksandPortsii

AboutRFF

ResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)isanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutionin

Washington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmental,energy,andnaturalresourcedecisionsthroughimpartialeconomicresearchandpolicyengagement.RFFis

committedtobeingthemostwidelytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpolicysolutionsleadingtoahealthyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy.

Workingpapersareresearchmaterialscirculatedbytheirauthorsforpurposesof

informationanddiscussion.Theyhavenotnecessarilyundergoneformalpeerreview.TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheindividualauthorsandmaydiferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsoficers,oritsdirectors.

SharingOurWork

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ResourcesfortheFutureiii

Abstract

Hydrogenhasthepotentialtoserveasazero-carbonenergycarrierasanelement

ofazero-carboneconomy.Butthehighcostofcleanhydrogenandinfrastructure

needsforscaling,plusthedismantlingofpoliciestopromoteitsproductionand

use,havehampereditsspread.Focusingontheheavy-dutytruckingandports

sectors,wereviewthepolicylandscapehereandabroadandtheobstaclesfacedbycleanhydrogeninthesesectors.Wepresentpotentialpoliciesforovercomingthe

demand-sideobstaclesinthesetwosectors,withsomefocusonthenascentBidenadministration’sJointOftakeProducerAuctionanditscontrastwithotherpolicy

ideas,suchascontractsfordiferences.Thediscussionisorganizedaroundthe

obstaclesofhighcost,uptakeoffuelcellvehiclesandtheconstructionofarefuelingnetworkforheavy-dutytrucking.Amongseveralsuggestions,wefindthathydrogenuseinheavy-dutytruckingrequiresmorecoordinatedinvestmentduetotheneedforextensiverefuelinginfrastructurealongtransportationcorridors.

OvercomingDemandBarrierstoHydrogenUseinHeavy-DutyTrucksandPortsiv

Contents

1.Introduction1

2.Background2

2.1.Trucking2

2.1.1.Long-HaulTrucking3

2.1.2.CurrentUseofHydrogeninTrucking3

2.1.3.ChallengestoHydrogenUseinTrucking4

2.2.Ports5

2.2.1.GovernanceofUSPorts6

2.2.2.PotentialUsesofHydrogeninPorts6

2.2.3.PortEquipment6

2.2.4.TruckingandDrayage8

2.3.ChallengestoUseofHydrogeninPorts8

3.CurrentPolicyLandscapeforHydrogen9

3.1.GeneralHydrogenPolicy9

3.1.1.BroadFederalPolicies9

3.2.HydrogenTruckingPolicy10

3.2.1.FederalPolicy10

3.2.2.StatePolicy11

3.3.Ports12

3.4.InternationalHydrogenPolicy13

3.4.1.Trucks13

3.4.2.Ports14

4.Demand-SideSupport14

4.1.Subsidies15

4.2.PublicProcurement15

4.3.AMCs15

4.4.MilestonePayments16

4.5.Regulation17

4.6.CfDs18

ResourcesfortheFuturev

5.ApplicationofDemand-SideSupportstoHydrogeninPortsandTrucking18

5.1.HydrogenCost19

5.1.1.GeneralConsiderations19

5.1.2.OftakersinPortsandHeavy-DutyTrucks20

5.1.3.StructuresforOftakerInvolvement20

5.1.4.AuctionDesign20

5.1.5.Demand-SidePoliciestoAddressHydrogenCost21

5.2.FuelCellVehicleCosts24

5.2.1.DirectSubsidy24

5.2.2.CfDs24

5.2.3.AMCsandGovernmentProcurement25

5.2.4.OtherDemandIncentives25

5.3.BuildingRefuelingInfrastructure25

5.3.1.CorridorDesignations25

5.3.2.SubsidiesandCfDs26

6.Conclusion27

References29

OvercomingDemandBarrierstoHydrogenUseinHeavy-DutyTrucksandPorts1

1.Introduction

Toaddresstherealityofclimatechangecausedbygreenhousegas(GHG)andits

threatstoourhealth,economyandenvironment,decarbonizingourenergyuseis

essential.Someusesaremoreeasilyandcheaplydecarbonizedthanothers,althougheventhesefacemanychallenges.

Thetransportationsector,whichincludeslight-,medium-,andheavy-dutyvehicles,

bothonroadandof(aswellasaircraft,pipelines,shipsandboats),isnowthebiggestUSsourceofanthropogenicGHGemissions,andthemedium-andheavy-duty

subsector(whichmakesroughly23percentof

thissector’semissions

)isparticularlychallengingtodecarbonizebecausegasolineanddieselfuelarecheapandubiquitousandcanberapidlyusedtorefuelvehicles(EPA2024b).

Giventhesechallenges,particularlyforheavy-dutytrucking,planstodecarbonizehaveturnedtohydrogen,preciselybecauseofitshighenergydensity,zerodirectemissionsandabilitytorapidlyrefuel.TheDepartmentofEnergy’s(DOE)roadmapsand

pathwaystodecarbonizationreports1indicatethatinheavy-dutytrucking,hydrogencancompetewithfossilfuelsatthehighesthydrogenpriceofanyothersector,makingitoneofthe“low-hangingfruit”sectorsforcleanhydrogenapplications.

Thesereportshavealsoidentifiedportsasanopportunityforhydrogenbecauseof

theirmotorizedequipmentandcentralization.Forklifts,inparticular,areripeforcleanhydrogenuse,andmorethan95,000forkliftsalreadyusehydrogen.Portopportunitiesalsoincludetruckingandcargo-movingmachinery(suchascranes,reachstackers,

andstraddlecarriers).

Forallofcleanhydrogen’spromise(and,inCalifornia,use)inthesesubsectors,

realizingitsdecarbonizingbenefitsrequiresproducingitwithlow-orzero-carbon

techniques.Asof2019,theUnitedStatesproducedabout10millionmetrictonnesperyearofhydrogen,primarilyintherefinerysectorandforammoniaandfertilizer.Almostallofthisisgrayhydrogen,2meaningithasCO2emissionsasaby-product.

DuringtheBidenadministration,aseriesofincentiveprogramswereenactedto

subsidizecleanhydrogenproductionprojects,asthecurrentcostistoohightoobtainprivatefinancingandrealizetheeconomiesofscaleandlearningbydoingneededtobringproductioncostsdown.Theseincentivesincludedthehydrogenhubsprogram

1TheDOELiftofreportsarenolongeravailableontheDOEwebsite.Copiesofthehy-drogenreportarestillavailableonotherwebsites,suchas

/content/

does-pathways-commercial-liftof-clean-hydrogen

.

2Thelistofhydrogencolorshasseeminglygrownwithoutbound.Wewillrestrictour-selvestograyhydrogen(fromsteammethanereformingwithoutcarboncapture),bluehydrogen(fromreforming,steammethaneandotherwise,withcarboncapture),and

greenhydrogen(fromelectrolysis,usuallywithsomepurchaseofa

cleanelectricity

attribute

coveringtheelectricityused).

ResourcesfortheFuture2

intheInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct,whichwasintendedtohelpcentralizecleanhydrogen’sproductionanduse(mitigatingdistributionconcerns)andsubsidizeproduction.

Itbecameclearthatsubsidizingthesupplyofhydrogenwasnotsuficienttodriveitsdeployment;demand-sideincentiveswerealsoneeded.Hence,DOEusedatleast$500millionofahubprogram’s$8billioninfundingtobegindevelopingademand-side

supportmechanism.DOEawardedacontracttoacoalitionofgroups(H2DI)tosetitup.However,thismovementcametoahaltwiththesecondTrumpadministration.

EvenasmanyoftheprogramsenactedduringtheBidenadministrationarebeingundone,3itislikelythatanyfuturehydrogendeploymentwillrequiredemand-

sidesupport.Although,aswewilldescribe,theH2DIinitiativesettledononesuchmechanism,awidearrayofotheroptionsexist,whichwewillreview.Wefocusonthetwopromisingsectors,portsandheavy-dutytrucking,todescribeandevaluatedemand-sidesupportoptionsthatwouldapply.

WebegininSection2byreviewingbothsectors,theirpotentialforuseofhydrogen,

andthebarrierstoitsusage.InSection3,wereviewthecurrentpolicylandscape

supportingcleanhydrogenuseinthesesectors,withafocusonpoliciesintheUnitedStatesandalsotouchingoninternationalpolicies.InSection4,wereviewdemand-sidepolicies.Finally,inSection5,welookatapplicationsofspecificdemand-sidepoliciestoaddressparticularbarrierstotheuseofhydrogeninportsandheavy-dutytrucking.WeconcludeinSection6.

2.Background

Webeginbyreviewingthetruckingandportssectors,focusingontheopportunitiesforandbarrierstohydrogenuse.

2.1.Trucking

Heavy-dutytruckingisahighlyfragmentedindustry,withmultiplebusinessmodelsandsubsectors,makingitdificulttoregulateandnecessitatingtailoredsolutionsfordecarbonization.

Truckingasanindustrycanbebroadlysplitintoshort-andlong-haulsegments,usingdiferentvehicles,unloadingatdiferentfrequencies,andcoveringdiferentdistances.Short-haultrucksgenerallytravelwithina200-mileradius,operatingwithincitiesorregions,andarelighter-dutyvehiclescarryinglighterpayloadsthanlong-haultrucks

3TheOneBigBeautifulBillAct(OBBBA)sunsetsthekeycleanhydrogenproductionincentive(Section45VoftheInternalRevenueCode),andthehubprogramisunderreview,withsupportwithdrawnfromtwohubsasofthiswriting.Thestatusofthede-mand-sidesupportmechanismisalsounclear.

OvercomingDemandBarrierstoHydrogenUseinHeavy-DutyTrucksandPorts3

(FHWA2000).Long-haultrucksoftendrivemorethan200milesandtravelbetweencitiesorstates.Whenconsideringdecarbonizationsolutions,thesediferencesafectwhetherbattery-electricorhydrogenfuelcelltrucksaremoresuitable.Traditionally,battery-electrictruckshavebeenconsideredbettersuitedforshort-haul,lighter-dutyvehicles,withhydrogenapotentiallybetteroptionforlongerroutesbecauseofits

greaterenergydensityandfasterrefuelingtimes.Wefocusonlong-haultrucking,asthisiswherehydrogencanplaythebiggestrole.4

2.1.1.Long-HaulTrucking

Heavy-dutytruckingmakesupasignificantportionofoveralltruckingemploymentandmileage.AccordingtotheUSCensus,in2022over1.1millionpeoplewere

employedinthegeneralfreighttruckingindustry(NAICS5code4841),with901,044ingenerallong-distancetrucking(48412)(NCSESetal.2025).

Thesectorcanbefurtherdividedbybusinessmodelintothreebroadcategoriesof

logisticsoperations:for-hirecarriers,owner-operators(alsotechnicallyconsidered

for-hire),andin-house/privatecarriers.For-hirecarriersarecompanies,suchasUPS,

FedEx,andJBHunt,thattransportgoodsforothercompanies.Owner-operatorsare

self-employedindividualswiththeirowntruckingbusiness(undertheirownauthorityorcontractedouttoothercompanies).Finally,privatecarriersincludebusinesses,suchasAmazon,thatoperatetheirownlogisticsandowntheirtrucks.

In2022,ofthe623,108businessesregisteredasNAICS48412(GeneralFreight

Trucking,LongDistance),91percent(565,000)werecategorizedas“nonemployer”

firms,representingthelargestshareofowner-operatorsinthelong-distancetruckingindustry(NCSESetal.2025).Largercompanies,whetherfor-hireorprivate,makeuparelativelysmallshare.Thetop50largestcompaniesgeneratelessthan30percentofoverallmarketrevenue(AEO2024).

Thesedistinctionsareimportantfordecarbonizationpolicybecausesmall,owner-

operatorfleetshavelimitedabilitiestoobtaincapitalinvestmentandperformlong-

termplanning.Privatecarriersmayalsoactmorelikesatisficers,seekingtoearnanacceptableamountofprofit,asopposedtobeingprofitmaximizers.Largecompanies,ontheotherhand,oftenhavesophisticatedlong-termcostmodelingandgreater

abilitytomakelargecapitalinvestments.

2.1.2.CurrentUseofHydrogeninTrucking

Althoughhydrogenhasbeenidentifiedasapotentialdecarbonizationsolutionfor

long-haultrucking,itscurrentuseintheUnitedStateislimited.Totalcostofownership(TCO)modelingcomparinghydrogentruckstopotentialalternativeshasfoundthat

4SeeNehrkornetal.(2024)foranoverviewoftheissuesassociatedwithhydrogen-fueledheavy-dutytruckingandcomparisonstousingbatteriesforpower.

5NAICSreferstotheNorthAmericanIndustrialClassificationSystem.

ResourcesfortheFuture4

theTCOoffuelcellelectricvehicles(FCEVs)ismuchhigherthandiesel,butparity

couldbereachedovertime.WiththeInflationReductionAct(IRA)incentivesandcostprojections,FCEVscouldhavereachedparityasearlyas2034(Lednaetal.2024).

However,otherestimatesputthatat2050(Burnhametal.2021)orbeyond.When

comparedtoelectricoptions,studiesfindconflictinganswersastowhichapplicationswillhavealowerTCO(Hunteretal.2021;Lednaetal.2024;Burnhametal.2021).

Hydrogenfuelcelltrucksarestillinthedemonstrationandearlycommercialization

phases,andtheiravailabilityisverylimited.Severalstart-upmanufacturers,such

asNikolaandHyzon,havefocusedspecificallyonbuildingthem;however,bothof

thesefirmshaverecentlygonebankrupt.Legacymanufacturerscontinuetoinvest

inhydrogenvehicles,withDaimler,Volvo,PACCAR,Toyota,Honda,andHyundai

allinvolvedinmanufacturingFCEVstosomeextent.Thisincludesa

jointventure

betweenPACCARandToyota

whereToyotasuppliesthefuelcellmodulesto

PACCAR,whichinsertsthemandrelatedequipmentintoKenworthandPeterbilttruckbodieswithnon-hydrogen-relatedequipment.Accordingtointerviews,Toyotahas

thecapacitytoproduce30,000fuelcellstacksperyear,whichcombineindividualfuelcellstoformtheheartofthe

fuelcellpowersystem

,andhascompletedsuccessfulpilotsatthePortofLA.

Theotherfundamentalrequirementforwidespread,scaledhydrogenuseis

infrastructureavailability.IntheUnitedStates,hydrogeninfrastructureislimitedand

almostexclusivelyinCalifornia.AccordingtoDOE’sAlternativeFuelingStationLocator,72publicorprivateUSrefuelingstationsareavailable(55inCalifornia),withfive

accessibletoheavy-dutyvehiclesandonlytwoopentothepublic(DOE2025).Bothoftheavailablepublicheavy-dutyrefuelingstationsareinCalifornia.

2.1.3.ChallengestoHydrogenUseinTrucking

Tobetterunderstandthebarrierstohydrogenadoptioninheavy-dutytrucking,

weinterviewedstakeholdersacrossthevaluechain,includingasupplieroffuelcellsystems,adieseloriginalequipmentmanufacturerpilotingFCEVs,andacompanydevelopingfuelcellsforportequipmentandstationary/mobilepower.Acrosstheseconversations,threeconsistentbarriersemerged:lackoffuelinginfrastructure,highhydrogencosts,andthehighupfrontcostofhydrogentrucks.

Infrastructurelimitationsremainakeychallengeforlarge-scaledeployment.Althoughhydrogenfuelcelltrucksoferakeyadvantageoverbattery-electricmodelswith

theirrapidrefuelingtime,therefuelingnetworkisextremelylimitedandheavily

concentratedinCalifornia.Thesestationsrequirelargecapitalinvestments,which

carrysignificantriskwithoutdedicateddemand.DOE(2021)foundthattheaverage

hydrogenstationrequires$1.9millionincapital.Thesecostsincreaseasthecapacitydoes,withtheAFLEETmodelassumingstationcostsof$1,892,967–3,448,461,

dependingonthedispensingrate(Burnham2023).Thiscanbecomparedtomodeledcostsfordieselstationsofabout$172,000.Oneintervieweeestimatedthata300–400mileroutewouldrequireatleast2–3stationstobesuitableforlong-haultrucking.Thisraisesthequestionofhowinfrastructureiscoordinated,whereitisplaced(e.g.,along

OvercomingDemandBarrierstoHydrogenUseinHeavy-DutyTrucksandPorts5

majortruckroutesconnectingtwoormoremajorcities—termedbysomea“hydrogencorridor”approach),andwhoisresponsibleforbuildingit.

Anothermajorbarriertowide-scaledeploymentisthecostofhydrogen.One

intervieweesuggestedthatthehighestpricethatcouldmakehydrogenfeasiblefor

truckingendusesis$8–9/kg.Asofthiswriting,Californiastationshaveprices

ashigh

as$36/kg

,butthiswouldcomedownwithahigherrateofcapacityuse.Becauseof

fuelcells’greatereficiencycomparedtodiesel,transportationapplicationshaveahigherwillingnesstopaythanotherendusesandcanacceptaslightlyhigherprice,butcurrentpricesarestillfarfromeconomicallyfeasible.Adiferentinterviewee

expressedthatparitywithdieselcouldbereachedataround$6–7/kgorpreferably$4–5/kg.

Beyondthecostofhydrogen,fuelcellvehiclesremainmuchcostlierthandiesel.

Existingvoucherprogramshelpsignificantlyclosethisgap,andlong-termeconomiesofscalecouldbringFCEVcostsdownsignificantly.Nonetheless,thehighpriceof

hydrogenfuelcelltrucksstillcreatesproblemsforinsurabilityandfinancing.Onpaper,ahydrogentruckcancostover$600,000atsmallproductionvolumesandaround$350,000atfullproductionlevels(comparedtoa

dieseltruckataround

$117,000

)(Nehrkornetal.2024),requiringinsurancecompaniestotakeonmore

risk.Additionally,technologicaluncertaintiesstillsurroundFCEVs,furtherincreasinginsurancerisk.Althoughinsurerscanchargemore,thiscreatesadditionalcostsforowners.

TheresalemarketisanothercriticalissueforthecostofFCEVs.Thelong-haul

truckingindustryreliesheavilyonresale,withdieseltrucksoftenlogging750,000

milesormoreandchanginghandsseveraltimesovertheirlifecycle.Theopportunitytoresellthevehicledecreasestheefectivecost,anditisoftenowner-operatorswhobuyusedvehiclesfromlargerfleets.Astheirfueleficiencydecaysovertime,long-

haultrucksareoftenshiftedtomoreregionalroutesthatcanrequireavastlydiferentrefuelingstructurethanthecorridormodel.Moretechnologicaluncertaintyarisesoverthetrucks’usefullife,addingmorerisktosecondarypurchasers.Withanunknown

resalepathway,fleetownersmaybeevenmorereluctanttocommittohydrogen.

2.2.Ports

TheUnitedStateshasmorethan300ports,managedunderamixofgovernancemodelsthatincludestates,counties,municipalities,andprivatecompanies(DOT2025).Portsemployover2.5millionworkers,withthelargestconcentrationsof

jobsandGDPcontributionsinCalifornia,Texas,Florida,Louisiana,andNewJersey(AmericanAssociationofPortAuthorities2024).

Portsaremajorsourcesofenergydemandandproduction.Theyhostfacilitiesfor

electricitygenerationandpetroleumrefining,withmultiplestationaryandmobile

sourcesofdieselconsumption.Thisincludesdiesel-poweredequipment,suchas

forklifts,yardtractors,andcargohandlers,andelectricgeneratorsrangingfrom5kWto10MW.Mobilesourcesspanocean-goingvessels,harborcraft,drayagetrucks(usedforhaulingshippingcontainersrelativelyshortdistancesfromtheport),long-h