房地产 -2025年下半年澳大利亚中央商务区零售空置率 Australian CBD Retail Vacancy H2 2025

creatingResilience

Executivesummary

CBDretailvacancyinAustralia,assurveyedbycBREResearchis10.4%(weighted)asofH22025·Thisrepresentsa73bpdecreasefromthepreviousfigureof11.1%recordedinH12025·vacancyhastightenednationallytothelowestlevelsincethecountbeganinH12021.continuedreturntoofficemomentum,coupledwithincreasedtourism,events,infrastructureandinternationalstudentinflows,hasledtoincreasedfoottrafficincBDS,supportingoccupierappetiteforfloorspace·

ofthefivecapitalcitiessurveyed,sydneyrecordedthelowestvacancy(4.3%)whichwasinpartduetoconstructionattheMetcentreremovinganumberofpreviousvacanciesfromthecount·ThiswasfollowedbyMelbourne(G6.5%)whichsawvacancydeclinedespitetwonewcentreopenings·perth'sCBDretailvacancyexperiencedasignificantimprovement,decreasingby317bpduringH22025to18.6%.ThisisthelowestperthCBDretailvacancyratethathasbeenrecordedsinceH12021,whenthecBDretailvacancyseriesbegan·Brisbanesawareductionof77bpto17.5%whileAdelaidesawaslightjumpinvacancyto1.7%,theonlycapitaltoseeanincrease·

CBRESurveyed5,695CBDretailoutletsforthisvacancyreport·DuetoitslargeCBDretailcore,MelbournehasthehighestnumberofsurveyedCBDretailoutletsofanycityat1,726whichisfollowedbysydney,503),Brisbane,360,perth(684)andAdelaide(422).

Brisbane

V

17.5%

-0.77pp

Adelaide

11.7%

+2.40pp

perth

18.6%

3.17pp

V

sydney

4.3%

-0.78pp

Melbourne

6.5%

-0.40pp

TotalNo.SurveyedCBDRetailOutlets=5,695stores

Note:"pp"representspercentagepoint

Note:vacancyiscalculatedbyno.ofretailtenanciesvacant·

CreatingResilienceAustralianCBDRetailVacancyH22025

3CBRERESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

AustralianRetailoutlook

Despitepersistentcost-of-livingpressurestheAustralianretailsectorhasdemonstratedremarkableresilience.However,thisoptimismistemperedbyslowerdomesticgrowthandongoinguncertaintyinglobaltrade,whichcontinuetoweighonoverallexpectations.

Householdspendhasremainedbuoyant,withdiscretionaryspendingexpectedtoremainconsistentin2026.Householdspendingrose1.0%inNovember,followingariseof1.4%inoctoberand0.4%in

september.Householdspendingisnow6.3%higherthanthesametimelastyear,bolsteredby

improvingconsumerconfidence.Growthinhouseholdspendingwasbroad,witheightoftheninespendingcategoriesrisinginNovember,supportedbyBlackFridaysales.

TheReserveBankofAustralia'sdecisiontoincreaseinterestratesinitslatestmeetingtemperedwhatcouldhavebeenastronggaininconsumersentiment.ThewestpacMelbourneInstituteconsumer

confidencesawayearofupsanddowns,ultimatelyendingonamoreoptimisticnote.whileapromisingNovemberbounceprovedshortlived,confidencelevelshavestabilisedandimprovedfromthe

pessimismthatmarkedmuchoftheyear.Althoughoutrightoptimismremainsachallenge,theAustralianconsumerappearstobecautiouslyoptimisticastheyearconcludes·

continuedmomentumforworkersreturningtotheofficehasalsoplayedakeyroleinsupportingcBDretailperformance.AverageofficeoccupancyacrossAustraliancBDsreached73.5%ofpre-COVID

levelsinQ32025,upfrom72.7%inQ22025.Theincreasedstabilityhaspositivelyinfluencedleasingmomentumforoccupiers,fosteringgreaterconfidenceindaytimevisitation.

LimitednewretaildevelopmentincBDshashelpedsustaintenantdemand.Historically,CBDshave

accountedforjust4.2%oftotalretailsupplyoverthepastdecade.Anumberofnewinfrastructure

projectssuchasthemetroinsydneyandMelbourneaswellastheopeningofMecca,260collinsandthewalkArcadeinMelbourneshouldhelpbringmorepeopleintothecBDandcreatemorevibrancyincoreprecincts·

FIGURE1

HistoricAustraliaRetailvacancy

18%

16%

2%

NumberofvacantshopsNumberofshopssurveyedvacancyRate

FIGURE2

westpac-MelbourneInstituteconsumersentimentIndex

5,0004,0003,000

2,000

14%

12%

10%

4%

CreatingResilienceAustralianCBDRetailVacancyH22025

5CBRERESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

sydneyCBDRetailBreakdown

sydneycBDretailvacancytightenedby78bpinH22025,markingthefifthconsecutivehalf-yeardecline

sinceH12023fromapreviouspeakof10.8%,withtotalvacancynowat4.3%.Arcaderetailsawthelargestfall,dropping164bpto4.7%.ImprovedoccupancyacrosscBDarcades,includingtheDymocksBuilding(12%vs

18%previously),highlightstheappealofcurated,heritageretailspaceswherecompactlayoutsandcharacterallowretailerstostandoutandcaptureconcentratedfoottraffic.

stripretailvacancyfell86bpto5.4%.ThecorecBDcontinuestoattractglobalanddomesticbrands

securingflagshippositions,supportedbylimitedprimespaceandimprovedtradingconditions.Notable

openingsincludeNespressoonpittstreetandcotticoffeeoncastlereaghstreet.occupiersremainfocusedonhighexposuresitestodrivecustomeracquisition,omnichannelstrategiesandbrandpositioning.

centreretailvacancyedgeddownto3.4%(-20bp),underpinnedbystableconsumerspending,extendedtradinghoursandlongerdwelltimes,withpremiumretailersandemergingfoodandbeverageoperatorssustainingoccupancy.

TwoflagshippopMartstoresopenedinH22025onpittstreetandtheGeorgestreetfrontageofworld

square.Thebrand'sgrowthreflectsstrongengagementwithyoungerurbandemographics,particularlyGenzandearlycareerMillennials,supportedbydiscretionaryspendingalignedproductmixes,repeatvisitation

andstrongsalesdensityincBDcatchments.

Australia'spopulationisprojectedtorise12%betweenseptember2025and2034,withNswgrowing9%(DeloitteAccessEconomics).Thisexpansionwillenlargetheconsumerbase,supportinghigherretail,

hospitalityandpersonal-servicesdemand.CBREestimatesthedemographicupliftcouldgenerateanadditional$4.7billioninannualretailspending,withNswcapturingadisproportionateshareasakeyemploymentandeducationhub.

ThesydneyMetrohasreshapedcBDmovementpatterns,improvingaccessibilityandredistributing

pedestrianflowsacrosscoreretailcorridors.Enhancedconnectivitybetweentransport,commercialandleisureuseshasincreaseddwelltimesandtradingperformance,drivingdemandfromretailersseekingconsistent,alldayfoottrafficratherthanrelianceonpeakofficehours.

source:CBREResearch

FIGURE3

BreakdownofsydneycBDRetailTenancies

FIGURE5

BreakdownofsydneycBDRetailvacancy

FIGURE4

HistoricalvacancyRate

20222022202320232024202420252025

stripArcadecentre

5.4%4.7%3.4%-86bp-164bp-20bp

GeneralTrends

1.clothingandsoftgoodscontinuetobeprominentwithinsydneycBD,makinguparoundonethirdoftheassessedarea.

2.corevacancycompressedsharply,whilenon-corevacancyimprovedmarginally.

3.Arcadeandcentreretailleadthetightening,whilestripretailremainsslightlyhigherbutimproving.

CreatingResilienceAustralianCBDRetailVacancyH22025

6CBRERESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

sydneyCBDRetailBreakdown

coreandnon-corevacancygapwidens

Thegapbetweencoreandnon-coresydneycBDretailvacancyhaswidened.ASatH22025,corevacancystoodat4.0%andnon-coreat4.9%,comparedto5.0%and5.2%sixmonthsearlier.

coreareasincBDarcadesrecordedthemostsignificanttightening,falling151bpto4.4%.ThiswassupportedbyactiveleasingwithintheDymocksBuilding,

includingboutiquestoreslikeDiamondsFactoryAustralia.corestripandcoreshoppingcentrevacanciescompressedto3.7%and3.5%respectively.

corevacancyinsydney'sretailprecinctsisanticipatedtocontinuetighteningasstrongunderlyingdemandpersistsacrossthecity'sprimecorridors.Thisisbeingsupportednotonlybyenhancedaccessibilityfromexpandedmetroandlightrailnetworksandrisingweekdayfoottrafficfromreturningofficeworkersand

tourists,butalsobyconstrainedvolumesofnewsupply,robusthousehold

spendinggrowthandinflowsofinternationalbrandsandexperientialoperatorstargetingflagshipvisibilityinthecBDandkeystriplocations

Innoncoreareas,overallvacancycompressedto4.9%,witharcadesexperiencingthehighestvacancyat9.1%.However,CBDshoppingcentresremainedthemostsought-afterlocations,withavacancyrateof3.3%,suggestingthatinlocations

withmoresubduedpedestrianflowsandlowerofficeworkerconcentrations,

retailersareincreasinglygravitatingtowardscentresanchoredbydominantretailnodesandstrongfood-ledofferings.vacancyacrossnon-corestripretailalso

edgedlowerto7.2%,signallingagradualimprovementinleasingdemand.

0.9%

vacancyspreadbetweencoreandnon-coreocations·

4.9%

sydneycBDNon-corevacancy

4.0%

sydneycBDcorevacancy

CreatingResilienceAustralianCBDRetailVacancyH22025

8CBRERESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

MelbourneCBDRetailBreakdown

ExperientialF&Bofferingsacceleratetherevivalofnon-coreprecincts

MelbournecBDvacancylevelscontinuetoexhibitadistinctdivergence

betweencoreandnon-coreareas,albeitataslowerpace.CBREresearch

estimatesthecorecBDvacancyrateat5.0%,highlightingastarkcontrastwithnon-corevacancylevels,whichareestimatedat9.0%.AlthoughnonCo「e

vacancyratesremainhigh,theseareashaveexperiencedrobustactivityinthepastsixmonths,evidencedbya0.9%declineinnoncorevacancy.

Thegapbetweencoreandnon-coreretailprecinctshasfurthernarrowedto

4%,downfrom5%inH12025.Despitethechallengesinthenon-coreareas

(reducedvisibilityandlowerfootfall),averagelevelsacrosskeyprecincts

matchtotalvacancylevelsobservedinrecentyears.Thisindicatesthatthe

vacancyinnon-coreareashasbeenonadownwardtrajectory,althoughata

gradualpace.Akeydriverofthistrendhasbeentheriseofexperiential,

visuallydistinctiveF&Bconcepts,whichhavegainedstrongtractionwith

consumers.Theseoperatorsareincreasinglydrawntofringeandsecondary

locationsduetomoreaffordablerents,greaterflexibilityinfit-outsanda

consistentlevelofdemand.Asaresult,noncoreprecinctshavebecomemoreappealingtotenantsseekingtodifferentiatetheirbrandofferingwhileavoidingthecostpressuresofprimehigh-streetspace.Thisshifthassupported

ongoingabsorptioninhistoricallysofterpocketsofthecityandcontributedtothegradualtighteningofvacancyacrossthebroaderretaillandscape.

weexpectMelbourne'SCBDvacancyratestoslightlydipfurtherintheshortterm,drivenbythecompletionofsignificantdevelopments,includingmixedusetowers,transportinfrastructuresuchastheMetroTunnelandrevitalisedretailprecincts.

MelbournecBDcorevacancy

8.5%

vacancyspreadbetweencoreandnon-corecentreAssets

9.0%

MelbournecBDNoncore

vacancy

5.0%

9CBRERESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

MelbourneCBDRetailBreakdown

Melbourne'SCBDretailvacancynudgeslower,whilecore-non-coreconvergefurther

Melbourne'sCBDretailvacancytightenedby40bpoverthesixmonthstoDecember2025(H22025),reachinganaverageof6.5%.

stripretailvacancydeclinedto7.1%80bp)overthepastsixmonths,reflectingagradualimprovementinoccupancyasdemandstabilisesacrosshigh-visibilitylocations·Arcadevacancyalsoedgedlower,easingto9.6%(-30bp),indicatingmodestgainsintenantretentionandleasingactivity·Thissoftcontractionmaybesupportedbyrisingfoottraffictiedtotourismrecovery;however,vacancylevelsremainsomewhatelevated,suggestingpersistentstructuralchallengessuchasdatedlayouts,limitedvisibility,andoperationalconstraintsthatcontinuetoweighonperformance·

Incontrast,centrevacancyincreasedto4.5%(+10bp),signallingapotentialimbalancebetweentenantmixandshiftingconsumerpreferences·Manycentresarenavigatingatransition,withhigh-endathleticfootwearandperformancesportswearbrandsincreasinglyreplacingtraditionalfashionretailers·Thisshiftispromptinglandlordstorecalibrateleasingstrategiesandreconfigureprecinctstoattractwellness-orientedandlifestyle-drivenoperators,aligningcentreofferingswithcontemporarydemandpatterns·

AWavcofflagshipstoresandstrategicupgradesisbringingrenewedenergytocBDretail

Melbourne'sCBDisundergoingamajorretailuplift,ledbytheMelbournewalkredevelopment(309-325Bourkestreet),whichisstrengtheningdemandandactivatingsurroundingprecincts·severalarcadeshavealsocompletedupgradesinH22025,includingtherepositioned260collinsstreet,nowofferingarefinedmixfocusedonhealth,wellnessandfashion·RecentflagshipopeningscontinuetoliftCBDmomentum,withLacosteunveilinga190sqmconceptstore,complementedbyanewmulti-levelMeccaemporiumandJDsports'1,600sqm,two-levelflagship,expandingthecity'srosterofmajordestinationretailformats·

Together,theseprojectsreflectabroadershifttowardassetenhancementaslandlordscompeteforhigher-qualitytenants·withnewlydeliveredstockstillmovingthroughleasingandfit-outstages,theCBDisinatransitionalabsorptionphase.ASOpeningsprogress,retailersareexpectedtoadoptmoreproactiveleasingstrategies,potentiallytighteningvacancytowardalong-termaverageof4.0%.

source:CBREResearch

FIGURE6

BreakdownofMelbournecBDRetailTenancies

FIGURE8

BreakdownofMelbournecBDRetailvacancy

FIGURE7

HistoricalvacancyRate

stripArcadecentre

7.1%9.6%4,5%-80bp-30bp+10bp

GeneralTrends

1.Food&beverageandfashionretailerscontinuetodominateMelbourne'SCBD,collectivelyaccountingforapproximately51%ofthesurveyedareaasofH22025.

2.Multipleassetownersaremakingsignificantinvestmentsintheredevelopmentofexisting

properties,focusingonmodernisingspacestomeetevolvingconsumerneeds.withmanynowcompleted,theseareontracktoattractmorevisitorsandboostfoottrafficinMelbourne'SCBD.

3.coreareaslikeBourkestreetMall,collinsstreetandElizabethstreetreportthelowestvacancyratesduetohighpedestriantraffic,mixed-usedevelopmentsandinfrastructureupgrades.

CreatingResilienceAustralianCBDRetailVacancyH22025

11CBRERESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

BrisbaneCBDRetailBreakdown

Brisbane'SCBDretailvacancycontinuedtotrenddownwardinH22025,decreasingby77bpto17.5%.ThisrepresentsthethirdconsecutivehalfyearlydeclinesinceH22024.Brisbane'sretailsectorhas

continuedtobenefitfromthecBD'sstronggrowthinreturntoofficenumbers,withaverage

attendanceimprovingto85.6%inQ3,comparedto81.2%inthepriorquarter,whilepeakday

attendancereached92.8%.Queensland'spermanent50centpublictransportfareshasbeenakey

driverofimprovedofficeattendanceinthecBD.Inaddition,severalnewinfrastructureandtransportprojectshaveenhancedaccessibility,increasingcBDvisitationandsupportingretailactivity.NotableprojectsincludethekangaroopointBridge,aswellastheBrisbaneMetroproject.Majoreventshavealsosupportedincreasedfoottrafficduringtheperiod,includingtheBrisbaneRiverfireFestivalin

septemberandarangeofchristmascelebrations,suchasmarketsandfestiveevents.

ThedecreaseinoverallcBDretailvacancywaspartlyattributabletoan18bpdecreaseincBDstripvacancy.Demandforcorestriplocationsremainsprevalent,withmajorretailerscontinuingtosecureflagshiptenanciesinstripareas,withbothfoodandbeverage(F&B)andfashionretailersremaining

prominent,ThemostnotableflagshipistheinternationalF&Bretailer,wendy'SBurgers,openinga

newstoreonthecornerofAdelaidestreetandQueenstreetmall,acorecBDlocation.Leasing

activityhasalsobeenevidentamonghospitalityoperators,withseveralnewrestaurantsopeningoverthepast612months,includingGoldenAvenuebytheAndydaygrouponEdwardstreet.convenienceretailercontinuestoexpandacrossthecBD,withoperatorssuchasQuickstopandEzymartopeningmultiplenewstoresoverthepastyear·whilstoverallvacancyhasdeclinedovertheperiod,aclear

divergenceremainsbetweencoreandnon-coreareas,withnon-corelocationsexhibitingsignificantlyhighervacancycomparedtocorelocations.Demandforcorelocationsremainsprominentamng

luxuryretailersseekingflagshippositionswithinprimestriplocations.

withincBDcentres,overallvacancydecreasedby163bpinH22025to27.3%.Thisimprovementwaslargelydrivenbycorecentres,withtheopeningofseveralnewF&Bandapparelretailers,aswellasanumberofpop-upstores,whichskewvacancynumbers.Arcaderetailvacancyalsotightened,

decliningby303bpto7.6%,althoughthisfigureisskewedbythesmallsurveysize.Notably,BrisbanesawtheopeningofanewBirkenstockstorewithintheArcadeduringtheperiod.

source:CBREResearch

FIGURE9

BreakdownofBrisbanecBDRetailTenancies

FIGURE11

BreakdownofBrisbanecBDRetailvacancy

FIGURE10

HistoricalvacancyRate

2022202320232024202420252025

stripArcadecentre

13.4%7.6%27.3%mm18bp-303bp-163bp

GeneralTrends

1.FoodandBeverage(F&B)retailerscontinuetodominateBrisbane'SCBD,withseveralnewopeningsacrossbothstripandshoppingcentrelocations.

2.Bothcoreandnon-corelocationsrecordtightening,largelyledbyshoppingcentresDespitethis

improvement,acleardisparityremainsbetweenvacancyratesinBrisbane'SCBDcoreandnonCo「e

3.Queensland'spermanent50centpublictransportfareshasboostedfoodtrafficinBrisbane'SCBD,attractingseveralnewretailbrandsinbothF&Bandfashionsectors.

12CBRERESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

BrisbaneCBDRetailBreakdown

AcleardivergencepersistsacrosscBDcoreandnon-core

BrisbanecBDvacancylevelscontinuetoshowacleardisparitybetweencoreandnon-coreareas.CBREresearchestimatescorecBDvacancyat20.9%,whichissignificantlytighterthannon-corelocationsat14.3%onaverage.

InthecorecBDcentres,vacancytightenedby225bpto29.3%,largelydrivenbyhigheroccupierdemandforspacewithinsuperprimegradecentres,whilenon-corecentrevacancyexpandedby135bpto17.57%,highlightingmajortenantpreferenceforhighvisibilitylocationsin

establishedcentres·

Thegapbetweencoreandnon-corestripretailvacancytightened,withnon-corestripvacancydecliningby43bp.However,acleardivergenceremains,withcorestripretailrecordingthetightestvacancyof11.06%,contrastedby13.9%innon-corestrips.Tightvacancyincorestrip

locationscanbeattributedbystrongdemandforflagshipretailspacesinthecBD.

vacancylevelsacrosscoreandnoncoreareasoftheBrisbanecBDareexpectedtoremainstableinthenearterm,supportedbythecompletionofmajortransportandinfrastructuredevelopments.Theseprojects,

coupledwithcontinuedpopulationgrowth,areexpectedtodrivehigherfoottrafficacrossBrisbane'SCBD,whichwillaidinsupportingvacancylevels,attractadiversemixofretailersandassuch,revitalisethecBDretailprecinct·

13.2%

vacancyspreadbetweencoreandnon-corestripLocations.

27.3%

vacancyspreadbetweencoreandnon-corecentreAssets.

20.9%

BrisbanecBDCorevacancy

CreatingResilienceAustralianCBDRetailVacancyH22025

14CBRERESEARCH©2025CBRE,INC.

perthCBDRetailBreakdown

perth'SCBDretailvacancyhascontinueditsdowntrendreaching18.6%inH22025.ThisisthelowestvacancyrateseenintheperthcBDsincethecBDvacancyseriesbeganinH12021.DuringH22025thevacancyratedecreasedby317bpH-0-Hto18.6%andhasnowdecreasedby790bpsincepeakingat26.5%duringH12022.

DuringH22025animprovementinretailvacancywasrecordedacrossperthcBD'sretailstrips,centresandarcades.InthecBDretailstripsoverallvacancydecreasedby322bpduringH22025andnowsitsat19.0%.IntheretailstripsvacancyreductionswererecordedacrossMurraystreet,HaystreetMall,kingstreet,wesleyQuarterandBarrackstreet.BarrackstreethasbeenimprovingwiththeopeningofnewFood&Beverage

(F&B)offerings,whiletheopeningofDiorandthenewflagshipcameraHousestorecontributedtoan

improvementatwesleyQuarterandHaystreetMall.withinthecBDcentrestheoverallvacancyrate

decreasedslightlyby81bpduringH22025tonowsitat17.1%.Thiswasprimarilyduetoanimprovementin

vacancyatEnex,whichhasbeenredevelopedwithasmallerbut