青岛银行业绩领跑经营质效全面提升

图3：青岛银行归母净利润同比增速归母净利润同比增速25.00%73%21.620.16%73%21.620.16%18.74%15.83%15.72%15.17%15.11%15.60%16.42%16.05%15.54%12.28%13.07%7.30%5.48%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%图4：青岛银行单季度营业收入同比增速营业收入单季度额同比增速50.00%40.00%

42.03%30.84%19.28%30.84%19.28%15.83%15.54%18.21%8.50%9.69%5.09%5.15%0.54%0.80%-0.22%-5.74%-7.36%-28.05%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%-30.00%-40.00%2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q4图5：青岛银行单季度利润总额同比增速利润总额单季度额同比增速120.00%100.00%

94.71%82.40%43.27%82.40%43.27%38.30%35.91%22.45%18.90%20.46%25.16%10.57%14.81%12.40%1.60%6.88%-24.43%-26.34%60.00%40.00%20.00%-40.00%2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q4图6：青岛银行单季度归母净利润同比增速归母净利润单季度额同比增速60.00%50.00%

44.53%

47.79%40.00%

21.73%

6.99%

15.83%15.65% 14.77%13.26%18.74%13.26%

9.44%

24.65%

16.42%15.79%13.90%0.00%

-3.26% -7.13%-10.00%2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q4图7：青岛银行加权平均净资产收益率15.1715.3415.1715.3415.7514.0312.9012.6813.2313.1611.4912.1912.2112.6811.5110.718.950.6016.0014.0012.0010.008.006.004.002.000.00

ROE（加权年化，%）

13.39%

6.93%

5.38%

1.41%

4.75%

5.96%

总资产同比增速14.80%12.82%9.40%

15.06%15.11%

13.48%

14.46%

13.61%

14.44%

18.12% 图9：青岛银行贷款总额同比增速18.00%16.00%14.00%12.00%

贷款总额同比增速

16.53%14.14%12.92%14.14%12.92%13.53%13.27%13.57%13.34%11.71%11.55%11.95%12.31%11.28%10.17%10.76%10.12%8.88%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%图10：青岛银行存款总额同比增速

12.38%11.64%

13.21%

8.87%

15.77%

12.13%

存款总额同比增速14.29%13.10%9.05%

11.22%

12.91%

11.91%

15.02%

13.25%12.50%

16.41%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%图11：青岛银行不良贷款率不良贷款率（%）.33 1.33 1.321.211.14 1.14.33 1.33 1.321.211.14 1.141.141.18 1.18 1.17 1.171.141.13 1.121.100.971.000.800.600.400.20-图12：青岛银行拨备覆盖率拨备覆盖率（%）292254.67292254.67269.97252.80198.38209.07206.20219.77232.79237.34245.71241.32251.49225.96232.35234.43300.00250.00

.30200.00150.00100.0050.00-2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E附表：青岛银行盈利预测表（每股指标单位：元/股，其他指标单位：百万元）2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E价值评估（倍） 利润表 P/E8.426.815.454.493.72净利息收入9,2829,87411,08312,34413,998P/B0.830.720.640.570.51利息收入21,14022,42123,27425,78329,009P/PPOP 3.38 3.16 2.76 2.49 2.21利息支出11,85812,54812,19113,43915,011每股指标净手续费收入1,5871,5101,5101,5851,680EPS0.570.690.851.031.24净其他非息收入1,6042,1141,9451,9452,003BVPS5.616.457.198.099.16营业收入12,47213,49814,53815,87417,682PPOPPS1.371.471.671.862.10营业支出8,5488,4208,3948,5008,844DPS0.160.160.200.240.29税金及附加156167199222251股息支付率28.09%23.10%23.10%23.10%23.10%业务及管理费4,3604,7174,5074,7625,128股息收益率 3.46% 3.46% 4.24% 5.14% 6.21%营业利润3,9245,0786,1437,3748,838驱动性因素营业外净收入9-83-83-83-83贷款增长11.55%13.53%16.53%16.00%15.00%拨备前利润7,9658,5309,74910,80712,221存款增长13.10%11.91%16.41%15.50%14.50%资产减值损失4,0323,5353,6883,5163,465生息资产增长15.22%14.30%15.49%15.14%14.51%利润总额3,9334,9956,0607,2918,755计息负债增长2%14.67%15.73%15.27%14.78%所得税2625907158601,033平均贷款3.94%3.88%净利润3,6714,4055,3456,4317,722平均生息资产收益率5%3.56%3.22%3.09%3.03%归母净利润 3,549 4,264 5,177 6,228 7,479平均存款付息率2.22%2.07%1.75%1.65%1.60%资产负债表平均计息负债付息率2.23%2.04%1.72%1.64%1.60%贷款总额300,090340,690397,006460,527529,606净息差(NIM)-测算值1.69%1.57%1.53%1.48%1.46%贷款减值准备7,9989,34711,21512,99514,307净利差(NIS)-测算值1.63%1.52%1.49%1.45%1.43%贷款净额292,993332,554385,791447,532515,298净手续费收入增速9.78%-4.85%0.00%5.00%6.00%投资类资产226,011255,655306,786343,600388,269净非息收入/营收25.58%26.85%23.76%22.24%20.83%存放央行31,04449,15330,17534,85239,906成本收入比34.96%34.95%31.00%30.00%29.00%同业资产30,17625,83641,33853,73964,487拨备支出/平均贷款1.42%1.10%1.00%0.82%0.70%其他资产27,76126,76428,29532,53837,289实际所得税率 6.66% 11.82% 11.80% 11.80% 11.80%生息资产587,321671,334775,305892,7181,022,267业绩年增长率资产合计607,985689,963808,440929,6661,065,393净利息收入11.99%6.38%12.25%11.38%13.40%存款386,062432,024502,919580,872665,098净手续费收入9.78%-4.85%0.00%5.00%6.00%向央行借款18,23528,24028,24028,24028,240营业收入7.11%8.22%7.71%9.19%11.39%同业负债60,21368,69675,56690,679104,281营业支出0.41%-1.50%-0.30%1.26%4.05%发行债券107,505126,992152,391175,249206,794拨备前利润7.19%7.10%14.29%10.86%13.08%计息负债572,015655,952759,116875,0401,004,413利润总额25.43%26.99%21.33%20.31%20.07%负债合计568,046645,063759,116875,0401,004,413净利润15.91%19.97%21.35%20.31%20.07%股东权益合计 39,939 44,900 49,324 54,627 60,980归母净利润 15.11% 20.16% 21.40% 20.32% 20.08%资产质量盈利能力不良贷款余额3,5393,8733,8594,3064,686ROAA0.65%0.68%0.71%0.74%0.77%不良贷款率1.18%1.14%0.97%0.93%0.88%ROAE10.71%11.51%12.45%13.48%14.44%不良净生成率0.57%0.52%0.53%0.55%0.55%RORWA 1.02% 1.10% 1.20% 1.26% 1.33%拨备覆盖率226%241%291%302%305%资本状况拨贷比2.67%2.74%2.82%2.82%2.70%资本充足率12.79%13.80%13.14%12.67%12.37%流动性一级