中国必选消费品1月需求报告基础需求回暖享乐型消费承压

2020-012020-052020-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-012020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-01次高端及以上白酒：高端稳中趋降，次高端价格战白热化147014.0%。高端白酒：以飞天茅台为代表，价格表现相对坚挺。1月散瓶批发价及原箱价格虽同比略有下滑，但通过i茅台等直销渠道控量稳价，价格中枢维持在理性区间。次高端白酒：价格下跌压力显著。11.28%0.74%，多数品牌因库存高企和高端价格下图3次高端及以上白酒行业单月收入预测（亿元）图4次高端及以上白酒行业累计收入预测（亿元）图3次高端及以上白酒行业单月收入预测（亿元）图4次高端及以上白酒行业累计收入预测（亿元）次高端及以上白酒单月预测收入及增速次高端及以上白酒累计预测收入及增速060.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%040.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%单月收入单月同比（右轴）累计收入累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI2020-012020-052020-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-012020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-011月国内大众及以下白酒行业收入为229亿元，同比下滑3.0%。另据国家统计局数据，12月白酒产量37.6万千升，同比下滑19.0%；1-12月白酒累计产量354.9万千升，累计同比下滑12.1%。1月，白酒市场处于库存消化与消费理性化的调整阶段，大众及以下白酒凭借需求刚性和场景适配性，成为行业稳健力量。春节消费旺季带动图5大众及以下白酒行业单月收入预测（亿元）图6大众及以下白酒行业累计收入预测（亿元）图5大众及以下白酒行业单月收入预测（亿元）图6大众及以下白酒行业累计收入预测（亿元）大众及以下白酒单月预测收入及增速大众及以下白酒累计预测收入及增速060.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%-60.0%040.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%单月收入单月同比（右轴）累计收入累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI2020-012020-052020-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-012020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-0111707.1%。产量方面，202512月，中国222.78.7%；20251-12月，中国规模以3536.01.1%。1酒需求承压，元旦仅小幅带动线上高端、礼盒类消费，整体需求未达旺季水平，即时零售支撑日常消费。经销商放缓备货发货节奏，库存处于阶段性低位，以优化库存结构为主，行业内多数企业保持量价平稳。图7啤酒行业单月收入预测（亿元）图8啤酒行业累计收入预测（亿元）啤酒行业单月预测收入及增速图7啤酒行业单月收入预测（亿元）图8啤酒行业累计收入预测（亿元）啤酒行业单月预测收入及增速啤酒行业累计预测收入及增速2500100.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%0100.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%单月收入单月同比（右轴）累计收入累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI2020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-012020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-01图9调味品行业单月收入预测（亿元）图10调味品行业累计收入预测（亿元）调味品行业单月预测收入及增速调味品行业累计预测收入及增速030.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%025.0%图9调味品行业单月收入预测（亿元）图10调味品行业累计收入预测（亿元）调味品行业单月预测收入及增速调味品行业累计预测收入及增速030.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%025.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%单月收入单月同比（右轴）累计收入累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI2020-012020-052020-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-012020-012020-062020-112021-042021-092022-022022-072022-122023-052023-102024-032024-082025-012025-062025-11图11乳制品行业单月收入预测（亿元）图12乳制品行业累计收入预测（亿元）乳制品行业单月预测收入及增速乳制品行业累计预测收入及增速400060.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%图11乳制品行业单月收入预测（亿元）图12乳制品行业累计收入预测（亿元）乳制品行业单月预测收入及增速乳制品行业累计预测收入及增速400060.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%040.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%单月收入单月同比（右轴）累计收入累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI2026-012025-092025-052025-012024-092024-052026-012025-092025-052025-012024-092024-052024-012023-092023-052023-012022-092022-052022-012021-092021-052021-012020-092020-052020-012026-012025-092025-052025-012024-092024-052024-012023-092023-052023-012022-092022-052022-012021-092021-052021-012020-092020-052020-01图13速冻食品行业单月收入预测（亿元）图14速冻食品行业累计收入预测（亿元）速冻食品行业单月预测收入及增速速冻食品行业累计预测收入及增速2000100.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%-100.0%4000100.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%图13速冻食品行业单月收入预测（亿元）图14速冻食品行业累计收入预测（亿元）速冻食品行业单月预测收入及增速速冻食品行业累计预测收入及增速2000100.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%-100.0%4000100.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%-100.0%单月收入单月同比（右轴）累计收入累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI软饮料：促销力度加大，预计环比增速放缓19621.1%。1月价格月报中我们观察到，软饮料折扣有所加深，反映市场竞争加剧。另外从国家统计局发布的产量数据来看，121.1%11月增幅扩大，不过跟全年整体增速比仍然较低。我们主要由于春节备货谨慎，历史基数较高，预计2026年1月软饮料行业增速将放缓至低个位数。图15软饮料行业单月收入预测（亿元）图图15软饮料行业单月收入预测（亿元）图16软饮料行业累计收入预测（亿元）软饮料行业单月预测收入及增速软饮料行业累计预测收入及增速15000150.0%100.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%-100.0%0100.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%单月收入单月同比（右轴）累计收入累计同比（右轴），HTI，HTI2026-012025-092025-052025-012024-092024-052024-012023-092023-052023-012022-092022-052022-012021-092021-052021-012020-092020-052020-012026-012025-092025-052025-012024-092024-052024-012023-092023-052023-012022-092022-052022-012021-092021-052021-012020-092020-052020-0120261162亿元，单月同比+2.5%。20261月餐饮行业需求呈现边际回暖态势。春节前消费预期改善叠加气温偏低，对正餐、快餐及社区餐饮形成一定支撑，客流较前期有所修复。其中中小餐饮与连锁加盟门店恢复相对更快，补库与原材料采购节奏逐步恢复。价格端促销与套餐化仍是拉动需求的重要手段，但整体客单价修复有限，行业盈利能力仍承压。成本端原材料与人工压力尚存，餐饮企业经营仍以提升翻台率与周转效率为核心。整体来看，餐饮需求修复趋势延续，但由量向质的改善仍需时间，行业全面回暖仍有待观察。图17餐饮行业单月收入预测（亿元）图18图17餐饮行业单月收入预测（亿元）图18餐饮行业累计收入预测（亿元）餐饮行业单月预测收入及增速餐饮行业累计预测收入及增速060.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%-40.0%080.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%%-20.0-40.0%单月收入单月环比（右轴）累计收入累计同比（右轴），HTI注：考虑到数据来源口径问题，我们采用环比增速作图来反映行业经营增长情况，HTI2020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-012020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092026-01经济增长低于预期，收入增长缓慢，食品安全问题。中国必需消费APPENDIX1SummaryAccordingtoHaitongInternational'sforecast,inJanuary2026,amongtheeightkeyconsumerindustriesbeingcloselytracked,fourmaintainedpositivegrowthandfourexperiencednegativegrowth.Thegrowingindustriesincludecondiments,frozenfood,softdrinks,andcatering;thedecliningindustriesincludesecondaryhigh-endandaboveBaijiu,mass-marketandbelowBaijiu,dairyproducts,andbeer.Comparedwiththepreviousmonth,thegrowthrateofcondiments,frozenfood,andcateringindustrieshasincreased;thedeclinerateofsecondaryhigh-endandaboveBaijiu,mass-marketandbelowBaijiu,anddairyproductsindustrieshassloweddown;andthedeclinerateofthebeerindustryhasaccelerated.WebelievethattheoverallconsumerindustryinJanuarypresentsadifferentiatedpatternof"basicdemandrecoveryandhedonicconsumptionunderpressure.".Mid-to-high-endandaboveBaijiu:InJanuary,therevenueofthedomesticsecondaryhigh-endandaboveBaijiuindustrywas47billionyuan,ayear-on-yeardecreaseof14.0%.High-endBaijiu:representedbyFeitianMoutai,hasshownrelativelystrongpriceperformance.Althoughthewholesalepriceofindividualbottlesandtheoriginalboxpricedeclinedslightlyyear-on-yearinJanuary,thepricecenterwasmaintainedwithinareasonablerangethroughquantitycontrolandpricestabilizationthroughdirectsaleschannelssuchasiMoutai.Secondaryhigh-endBaijiu:facedsignificantdownwardpressureonprices.Themonth-on-monthpriceindexfellby1.28%to0.74%.Duetohighinventoryanddownwardpressureonhigh-endprices,mostbrandswereforcedtoparticipateinpricewars,withtheexpectedannualpricereductionrateexceeding10%.Somedealers,inordertorecoupfunds,resortedtosellingataloss.Mass-marketandbelowBaijiu:InJanuary,therevenueofthedomesticBaijiuindustry,includingmass-marketandlower-endBaijiu,was22.9billionyuan,down3.0%year-on-year.AccordingtodatafromtheNationalBureauofStatistics,BaijiuproductioninDecemberwas376,000kiloliters,down19.0%year-on-year;thecumulativeproductionofBaijiufromJanuarytoDecemberwas3.549millionkiloliters,down12.1%year-on-year.InJanuary,theBaijiumarketwasinanadjustmentphaseofinventorydigestionandrationalconsumption.Mass-marketandlower-endBaijiu,withtheirrigiddemandandsceneadaptability,becameastableforceintheindustry.ThepeakconsumptionseasonoftheSpringFestivaldrovemarketvitality,buttheyear-on-yeardatawasunderpressure.Intermsofprices,thedeclineinmass-marketBaijiuthismonthwasonparwiththatofpremiumBaijiu,buttherigiddemandsupportmadeitsignificantlyresistanttodecline,andtherewasnointensepricewarinthesecondaryhigh-endmarket.Beer:InJanuary,thedomesticbeerindustrygeneratedrevenueof17billionyuan,representingayear-on-yeardeclineof7.1%.Intermsofproduction,inDecember2025,China'sabove-scaleenterprisesproduced2.227millionkilolitersofbeer,markingayear-on-yeardecreaseof8.7%.InJanuary,duetotheimpactofthecoldwaveandthepostponementoftheSpringFestival,beerdemandwasunderpressure.TheNewYear'sDayonlyslightlydroveonlinehigh-endandgiftboxconsumption.Overalldemanddidnotreachthepeakseasonlevel,andinstantretailsupporteddailyconsumption.Dealerssloweddownthepaceofstockingandshipping,withinventoriesatatemporarylow.Mostenterprisesintheindustrymaintainedstablevolumeandprice.Condiments:InJanuary,thecondimentsectorachievedarevenueofRMB46.9billion,markingayear-on-yearincreaseof3.5%.Therecoveryofthecateringchannelcontinued,primarilysupportedbythereboundindemandfromsmallandmedium-sizedB-endcustomers.Customers'willingnesstorestockincreased,leadingtoaresurgenceindemandforbasiccondimentsandcost-effectivecompoundseasonings.ThelargeB-endandindustrialendremainedrobust,whiletheC-endremainedstable.Enterpriseswithchannelandproductadvantagesbenefitedfirst.Dairyproducts:InJanuary,thedomesticdairyindustry'srevenuewas43.5billionyuan,down3.3%year-on-year.DemandfordairyproductsremainedunderpressureinJanuary2026,andweexpectalowsingle-digitdecline.StockingchannelsfortheSpringFestivalarecautious,andthereishopeforareboundinFebruaryandMarchbasedonalowbase.InourJanuarypricemonthlyreport,weobservedthatthediscountrateofretailpricesforliquidmilkcontinuedtoincreasecomparedtotheendofDecember.Frozenfoods:InJanuary,thequick-freezingsectorachievedarevenueofRMB14.99billion,markingan8%year-on-yearincrease.ThepreparationfortheSpringFestivalandlowtemperaturessupportedtheindustry'sprosperity.TheincreaseindemandfromsmallB-endcustomersbecamethecoredrivingforce.Therecoveryofcustomerflowinthecateringindustryenhancedtheirwillingnesstoreplenishinventoryandincreasedtheiracceptanceofnewproducts.Pricecompetitionwasrational,andleadingenterprisessawanincreaseinmarketshareinsmallB-endchannels,solidifyingthesector'srecoverytrend.中国必需消费Softdrinks:InJanuary,therevenueofthedomesticsoftdrinkindustryreached96.2billionyuan,markingayear-on-yearincreaseof1.1%.InthemonthlypricereportforJanuary,weobservedthatthediscountsonrepresentativesoftdrinkproductshadincreasedcomparedtotheendofDecember,reflectingintensifiedmarketcompetition.Furthermore,accordingtotheproductiondatareleasedbytheNationalBureauofStatistics,theyear-on-yeargrowthrateinDecemberwas1.1%,whichwashigherthanthemonth-on-monthgrowthrateinNovember.Catering:InJanuary,therevenueofthecateringsectorreachedRMB16.2billion,markingayear-on-yearincreaseof2.5%.ConsumptionexpectationsimprovedaheadoftheSpringFestival,leadingtoamarginalrecoveryinindustrydemand.Smallandmedium-sizedcateringbusinessesaswellaschainfranchisestoreshaverecoveredmorerapidly.However,therecoveryinaveragecustomerspendinghasbeenlimited,andprofitabilityremainsunderpressure.Enterprisesarefocusingonimprovingtableturnoverratesandoperationalefficiency.Acomprehensiverecoveryintheindustrystillrequiresfurtherobservation.Risk:Economicgrowthislowerthanexpected,slowincomegrowth,foodsafetyissues.附录APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证AnalystCertification:我，闻宏伟，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,HongweiWen,certifythati)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport;andthatI(includingmembersofmyhousehold)havenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussed.Iandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.我，吴岱禹，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I,JasmineWucertifythatitheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchandiinopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportandthatIincludingmembersofmyhouseholdhavenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussedIandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin30calendardaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益冲突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.Asfarasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationship(Asthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@iftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).Compendiumdisclosure:Fordisclosuresassociatedwitheachcompanymentionedherein,includingdisclosureofrisks,valuationmethodologiesandtargetpriceformation,ifany,pleaserefertothefullreportonourwebsite().国泰海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（统称“国泰海通”）在过去12个月内参与了000895.CH的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括：1、国泰海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目；2、国泰海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目；3、国泰海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、