2026年阿拉伯地区宏观经济展望

MacroeconomicoutlookintheArabregion

。"v

UNITEDNATIONS

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ESCWA

E/ESCWA/CL3.SEP/2025/2

EconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia

MacroeconomicoutlookintheArabregion

UNITEDNATIONSBeirut

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Acknowledgements

ThepresentreportwasproducedbytheUnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia(ESCWA),undertheoverallguidanceoftheExecutiveSecretary,MouradWahba,andtheinsightfuldirectionoftheLeaderoftheSharedEconomicProsperityCluster,NiranjanSarangi,incollaborationwiththeDecision-SupportandDataScienceDivisionforthenowcastingexercise.

Leadauthor

AhmedMoummi

Authors

SourayaZein,JanGaskaandMehmetEris

Contributor

AhmedAl-Awah

Coordinator

SourayaZein

Researchassistant

MarounLaoun

Administrativesupport

ArpyAtamian

iii

Keymessages

Amidheightenedglobaluncertainty,geopoliticaltensionsandstrainedfinancialconditions,

achievingsustainableandinclusivegrowthintheArabregionremainsamajorchallenge.

Easinginflationandstabilizingoilpriceshaveprovidedsomerelief,however,ongoingconflicts,tradedisruptionsandelevatedglobaltariffuncertaintiescontinuetoweighontheeconomicoutlook.

Regionalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)isprojectedtogrowby2.9percentin2025and3.7percentin2026,supportedbydiversification,fiscalreformsandinvestmentinnon-hydrocarbonsectors.

High-incomeeconomiesaredrivingrecoverythroughdiversification,investmentin

manufacturing,tourism,anddigitalsectors,whilemiddle-incomeeconomiesremain

constrainedbyhighdebt,inflationandexternalshocks.Conflict-affectedlow-incomeeconomiescontinuetofacecontractionrisksamidfiscalfragilityandhumanitarianpressures.

Regionalinflationisforecasttodeclinefrom8.2percentin2025to5.4percentin2027,drivenbyeasingcommoditypricesandthenormalizationofsupplychains.

Exportsfromtheregionareexpectedtogrowduetoanincreaseinnon-oilexports.However,

vulnerabilitiestoexternalbalancespersistduetoheightenedglobaltariffuncertaintiesandregionaltradedisruptions.

TheUnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsiahasadoptedan

innovativeapproachtoanalysingeconomicoutlooksthroughmachine-learning-basednowcastingmodels,pilotedforEgyptandSaudiArabia.

Nowcastingintegratesconventionalandalternativedatasourcesandenablesnear-real-timeGDPestimation,enhancespolicyresponsiveness,andprovidesascalableframeworkforevidence-basedeconomicassessmentintheregion.

Nowcastingestimatescontributesignificantlytotheunderstandingofcurrenttrendsandhavethepotentialtoimprovepolicyresponsivenesstoreal-timedevelopmentsinthemacroeconomicsituationacrosstheregion.

vi

Executivesummary

Amidheightenedglobaluncertainty,geopoliticaltensionsandstrainedfinancialconditions,achievingsustainableandinclusivegrowthintheArabregionremainsamajorchallenge.Whileeasinginflationandstabilizingoilpriceshave

providedsomerelief,ongoingconflicts,tradedisruptionsandelevatedglobaltariffuncertaintiescontinuetosteertheeconomicoutlook.

Regionalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)isprojectedtogrowby2.9percentin2025and3.7percentin2026,supportedbydiversification,fiscalreformsandinvestmentinnon-hydrocarbonsectors.Inflationisexpectedtodeclinefrom8.2to5.4percentduringthesameperiod,withgradualimprovementsinfiscalanddebtindicators.

WhileglobalandregionalmacroeconomictrendsaffecttheoutlookfortheArabregion,theUnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsiahasdevelopedaninnovativeapproachtoforecastingthroughmachine-

learning-basednowcastingmodelspilotedforEgyptandSaudiArabia.Byintegratingconventionalandalternative

datasources,thesemodelsenablenear-real-timeGDPestimation,enhancingpolicyresponsiveness,andprovidingascalableframeworkforevidence-basedeconomicassessmentintheregion.

Contents

Acknowledgementsiii

Keymessagesiv

Executivesummaryvi

Explanatorynotesviii

Introductionix

1.

ImplicationsoftheglobalcontextontheArabregion1

2.

TheArabmacroeconomicoutlook5

A.Growthandinflationrates6

B.Fiscalbalanceanddebtlevels11

C.Trade14

3.

NowcastingintheArabregion17

A.RealGDPgrowthnowcastsforEgypt19

B.RealGDPgrowthnowcastsforSaudiArabia21

4.

Conclusionandprospects23

Annex.Thenowcastingapproachandmachinelearningmodelsemployed25

References27

Endnotes28

Listoftables

Table1.GDPgrowthandinflationratesintheArabregion,2025–202710

Table2.FiscalbalanceanddebtlevelsasapercentageofGDPintheArabregion,2025–202713

Table3.ExportandimportgrowthintheArabregion,2025–202715

Listoffigures

Figure1.ExportsfromtheArabregionbysubregion14

Figure2.ImportstotheArabregionbysubregion14

Figure3.Egypt:realGDPgrowthnowcastandforecasts,thebestmodel20

Figure4.SaudiArabia:realGDPgrowthnowcastandforecasts,thebestmodel21

viii

Explanatorynotes

Thefollowingcountrygroupingsareusedinthisreport.Theyhavebeendefinedbasedonacombinationofpercapitaincomelevels,geographicalproximity,andsimilaritiesineconomicandsocialcharacteristicsandconditions.

High-incomecountries:Bahrain,Kuwait,Oman,Qatar,SaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArabEmirates.

Middle-incomecountries:Algeria,theComoros,Djibouti,Egypt,Iraq,Jordan,Lebanon,Libya,Mauritania,Morocco,theStateofPalestineandTunisia.

Low-incomecountries:Somalia,theSudan,theSyrianArabRepublicandYemen.

ix

Introduction

Theglobaleconomycontinuestoexperiencehighlevelsofuncertaintyemanatingfromgeopoliticaltensions,fuelledbytheRussia-Ukraineconflict,tensionbetweenIranandIsrael,thewaronGazaanditsregionalspill-overeffects,tradeuncertaintyandelevatedtariffsimposedbytheUnitedStatesonawiderangeofimportedgoods.These

elevatedtariffsweremetwithcountermeasuresinsomecasesandhaveintensifiedtradetensionswithmanytradingpartners,includingChinaandtheEuropeanUnion.

Globalmonetaryconditionsareexpectedtoremainrelativelytightthrough2025,graduallyeasingin2026as

inflationarypressuressubside.Thedeclineinoilpricesalongwithaslowdeclineininterestrateshavecontributedtoamodesteasingofglobalinflation.Inadvancedeconomies,inflationisprojectedtomoderateandfurtherapproachcentralbanktargetsofabout2percentby2026,reflectingthefulltransmissionofearliermonetarypolicytighteningandaslowdownindemandgrowth.However,elevatedinterestrateswillcontinuetoweighonfiscalpositionsin

developingeconomies,wheredebt-servicingcostsareexpectedtoremainhighthroughouttheprojectionperiod.

Despitethesepressures,theshareofcountriesinorathighriskofdebtdistressisnotanticipatedtorisesignificantlyin2025–2026,inpartduetoresilientgrowthinseverallow-incomeeconomies,improvedfiscalmanagement,and

ongoingeffortstodiversifysourcesofexternalfinancing.

1Implications

oftheglobal

contextonthe

Arabregion

©Cathy/

1

Globaleconomicgrowthisprojectedtoremainsubduedinthenearterm.AccordingtotheWorldEconomic

SituationandProspects2025,globalgrossdomestic

product(GDP)isexpectedtorisebyabout2.4percentin2025,whichisbelowthe2.9percentin2024and

thepre-pandemicaverageofaround3.2percent

.1

For2026,theforecastismarginallyhigheratabout

2.5percent,reflectingmodestrecoverybutstill

constrainedbystructuralweaknesses,includingweakinvestmentgrowth,sluggishproductivitygains,elevateddebtburdensandincreasingpolicyandgeopolitical

uncertainty.Inflationiseasingglobally;forexample,

headlineinflationfellfromroughly5.6percentin2023toaround4.0percentin2024andisprojectedtofall

furthertoabout3.6percentin2025.Globaltradegrowthrateisexpectedtoslowmarkedly:from3.3percentin2024toapproximately1.6percentin2025duetothe

resurgenceofmercantilisttradepoliciesandtheshiftawayfromfreetradepolicyaroundtheworld.

Regionalgrowthprospectsshowwideningdivergence

acrosstheglobaleconomy.Developedeconomiesare

expectedtogrowmodestlyataround1.3percentinboth2025and2026,astightermonetaryconditionsandweakproductivitypersistdespiteeasinginflation.GrowthintheUnitedStatesisprojectedtoreachabout1.6percentin2025,duetothehikedtariffslimitingdomesticproduction.GrowthintheEuropeanUnionremainssubduedat

around1.0percentduetosluggishinvestment.By

contrast,developingeconomiesareexpectedtogrowat

about4.0percentin2025and4.1percentin2026,drivenlargelybyemergingmarketsinAsia.Theeconomyof

Chinaisforecasttogrowby4.6percentin2025,while

Indiaisexpectedtoremainoneofthefastest-growing

majoreconomieswithaprojected6.3percentexpansion.However,growthinLatinAmericaandAfricaremains

constrainedbyfiscalanddebtvulnerabilities,averaging2percentin2025and2.2percentin2026.Ongoing

inequalityinaccesstofinanceandtechnologycontinuestohinderlow-incomeregionsfromachievingstronger,moreinclusiverecovery.Climate-relatedshocksand

geopoliticalfragmentationarelikelytoweighonglobaltradeandinvestmentthrough2026;giventhis,thereisanacuteneedforcoordinatedinternationalpolicyaction

tosustainmedium-termstability.

2

Atthesametime,theartificialintelligence(AI)-drivenrevolutionwillaffectthelabourmarketsworldwide.

ThefirstglobaltrendthatwillshapetheeconomiesoftheArabcountriesoverthecomingyearsisthegreentransition.Whilepeakoilisnotyetthere,globalliquidfuel(oilandotherliquids)productionisforecastto

risebyabout2.7millionbarrelsperdayin2025,andbyabout1.3millionbarrelsperdayin2026,whileglobalconsumptionofliquidfuelsisexpectedtoincrease

muchless,byabout1.1millionbarrelsperdayinboth2025and2026,contributingtothedownwardpressureonoilprices.TheEnergyInformationAdministrationprojectsthattheBrentcrudepricewillaverageabout62UnitedStatesdollars($)perbarrelinthefourth

Globaleconomicgrowthisprojectedtoremainsubduedinthenearterm

©OMEGA/

2

3

quarterof2025,andthenfalltoabout$52perbarrelinthefirsthalfof2026.ThesedevelopmentswillaffecttheexportrevenueofAraboilexportersintheArabregion,reducingfiscalsurplusesandpotentiallypushingfiscalbalancesintodeficitsifspendingremainsunchanged,especiallygiventhattheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)oilproductionisexpectedtoincreaselessthantheglobalaverage(by2.3percentand0.7percentin2025and2026,respectively).By

contrast,forArabfuel-importingcountries(e.g.someNorthAfricanorLevanteconomies),lowerglobal

oilpricescouldreducetheirimportbillsandeaseinflationarypressures(especiallyenergyinflation).

3

ThegreentransitioncanbeobservedinseveralArabcountries.Thesecountriesareutilizingabundant

solarenergyandlargerenewable-energyprojects,

signallingashiftinenergystrategy.SeveralexamplesofsuchinvestmentsincludetheMohammedbinRashidAlMaktoumSolarParkintheUnitedArabEmirates,thelargestconcentratedsolarpowerplantinOuarzazateinMoroccoandtheworld’slargestgreenhydrogen

productionfacility,andtheNEOMGreenHydrogen

Project,andassociatedrenewablepowerplants.Theseprojectsshiftcapitalandemploymentintonewsectorsanddiversifytheenergyeconomy.

Thegreentransitionwillalsoaffectfuturedemand

forphosphates,affectingtheOfficeChérifiendes

PhosphatesGroupinMorocco,agloballeaderin

phosphateproduction.Astheglobalgreentransitionadvances,demandforbatteryrawmaterials(includingphosphatesforlithiumironphosphatechemistry)willincrease.However,thetimingandscaleofglobal

battery-materialdemandremainuncertain,andif

batterytechnologyshiftstodifferentchemistries,

theexpectedjumpinphosphatedemandmaynot

fullymaterialize.Securingvalue-addeddownstream(e.g.,battery-gradephosphates,chemicals)couldhelpmaximizebenefitsfortheOfficeChérifiendesPhosphatesandMorocco.

ThesecondkeytrendaffectingtheArabregion’seconomyoverthenextyearsisclimatechange.

Climatechangewillaffecttheregion’seconomy

mostlythroughitsimpactsonagriculturalandfood

securitytrendsandwaterstress,especiallyinmiddle-andlow-incomecountries.AccordingtotheWorld

Bank,

4

GDPintheArabcountrieswilldeclineby1.1

to6.6percentintheabsenceofadaptation.AsmanyArabcountriesheavilysubsidizefoodtomaintain

socialstability,climateshocks(droughts,floods)

mayforcehigherdomesticsupportandemergency

spending.Forexample,inMorocco,persistentdroughtconditionshavedamagedagriculture,reducingoutput,increasingirrigationcosts,andpromptinghigher

governmentsupport.ThedroughtinMoroccohas

contributedtoweakerruralincomes,reducedexports(e.g.,citrus,olives),andhasputstressonthebudget.Giventhatagricultureoftenaccountsforalarge

shareoflabourandexportsinmanyArabmiddle-andlow-incomecountrieswithparticularlyweakclimateadaptationcapacity,climate-drivenproductionlossestranslateintoeconomicandfiscalvulnerability.

Climate-relatedshocksincreasethelikelihoodofdebtdistress,asGovernmentsrespondwithfiscaltransfers,infrastructurerepairandemergencyfoodimports.

Thethirdsignificanttrend,particularlyaffecting

labourmarketsintheArabregion,isthedevelopmentofdigitalizationandAI.A2025InternationalLabor

Organization(ILO)

5

reportfindsthatwhileglobal

unemploymentremainsnearhistoriclowsataround

5percent,thepaceofjobcreationisslowingdownandmanyjobsareexpectedtobetransformed.Globally,itisestimatedthatabout16.3percentofglobalworkersholdjobswithmediumexposuretoAI-drivenautomationoftasks,andabout7.5percentofworkersarein

occupationswithhighexposuretogenerativeAIandautomationrisk.

ForArabcountries,theAIrevolutionpresentsbothopportunitiesandchallenges.Ontheopportunity

side,AIadoptioncanboostproductivity,particularly

insectorssuchasservices,manufacturing,logistics

andgovernmentoperations,offeringapotentialleapin

growthifhumancapitalandinfrastructurearedeveloped.Onthechallengeside,manylabourmarketsintheArabregionarecharacterizedbyahighshareofroutine,

low-skilljobs(includingpublic-sectoradministrative

roles,clericaljobsandinformalservices)whichcouldfacedisplacementorrequiresignificanttransformation.

4

Furthermore,automationandAImaycontributeto

thewideningofthewagegapintheArabregionasexposuretotheautomatingeffectsofgenerativeAIisexpectedtobesignificantlygreaterforwomenthanformenintheregion(5.2percentcomparedwith

1.9percent,respectively).Consequently,whileAIis

unlikelytoprimarilycausemassunemploymentintheArabregion,itwillinsteadreshapejobcontent,sectoralemploymentpatternsandskill-profiles.Policymakers

mustactproactivelytosteerthistransformationtowardsinclusivegrowth.

Acrossthesethreeglobaltrendsregardingthegeneralmacro-outlook,greentransition,climatechangeandAIdevelopment,economiesintheArabregionfaceacomplexmixofrisksandopportunities.Forexporters

ofoil,diversificationandinvestmentinrenewables

arenowcriticalinordertohedgeagainstfallingoil

pricesandrisingglobalcompetition.Forimportersandmiddle-incomeeconomies,leveraginglowerenergy

importbills,strengtheningagricultureandfood-securityresilience,andpositioningforrenewableenergyand

battery-materialdemandcanoffergrowthpaths.Acrossallcountries,enhancinghumancapitalandembracingdigitalandAItechnologieswillbekeytosustaining

growthandmanagingthestructuralshiftsahead.

Integratingthesetrendsintothemacroeconomicoutlookthussharpenspolicyimperatives:fiscalsustainability,

structuralreform,diversification,humancapital

investmentandclimate/energyadaptationwilldetermineoutcomesinthecomingyears.

2TheArab

macroeconomic

outlook

©Nat/

5

6

A.Growthandinflationrates

TheArabregionremainsexposedtomultipleshocks

anduncertaintiesthathaveweighedheavilyongrowthprospectsincludinggeopoliticalinstability,warand

conflict,tradedisruptionsintheRedSeaandglobal

tradepolicyuncertainty.Aceasefireafterthetwo-yearlongIsraeliwaronGazawasannouncedon10October2025;however,thesituationinGazaisstilldireandthe

ceasefireisbeingbrokenondailybasis,leavingbehindaheavydeathtoll,massdisplacementofthecitizensoftheGazaStripandmassivedestruction.Therepercussionsofthiswaronneighbouringcountrieshavebeensignificant.TheceasefirebetweenIsraelandLebanonisveryfragilewithdailyIsraeliviolationsandairstrikesonLebanon.

TheIsraeliattacksonIranhavecreatedsignificant

uncertaintyinneighbouringGulfcountries,particularlyQatarandtheUnitedArabEmirates,inadditionto

IraqandJordan.Theoptimismthataccompaniedthe

formationofanewGovernmentintheSyrianArab

Republicwaspartlyoffsetbysecurityconcerns.The

warintheSudanhasbeenongoingsinceApril2023

andYemencontinuestofaceseveresocioeconomic

conditionsandinstability.ElevatedtariffsimposedbytheUnitedStatescouldaffectthegrowthprospectsofArabcountries’majortradingpartners.

ThesechallengesposesignificantriskstotheoutlookoftheArabregionbutarepartiallyoffsetbysomepositiveindicators.VoluntaryoilproductioncutsbyOPEC+

membershavebeengraduallyliftedsinceSeptember2025,

6

whichwillincreaseoilproductionfromresource-richcountriesintheregion.Thiswillleadtoadeclineinandstabilizationofoilprices,whichwilleasefiscalpressureonoil-importingcountriesintheregion.

Furthermore,countriesintheregionwillbenefitfromincreaseddemandforgas,phosphatesandfertilizers,increasedproductionofgold,steelandcement,and

ongoingdiversificationeffortsawayfromhydrocarbonsinresource-richcountries.

TheaverageGDPoftheArabregionisexpectedtogrowby2.9percentin2025andtoaccelerateby3.7

and3.3percent,respectively,in2026and2027.Inflationratesareexpectedtodeclinefrom8.2percentin2025to5.4percentin2027asaresultofthedeclineinoil

pricesanddecreaseinsupplychaindisruptions.

Araboil-exportingcountriescontinuetoplayapivotal

roleinglobaloilmarkets,contributingapproximately

30percentofglobaloilproductionin2024.TheupstreamoilandgasinvestmentofSaudiArabiaisthehighestintheregion,projectedtoreachabout$40billionin2025,a15percentincreasefrom2015.Overall,theregionissettoinvestaround$30billioninoilandgassupplyin2025,accountingforabout15percentoftheglobaltotal.TheArabregionholdsabout17percentofglobalnaturalgasproductionasof2024.Inthepowersector,naturalgasprovidestwo-thirdsoftheregion’selectricity.

7

Whilephosphatemarketshaveexperiencedvolatility

inrecentyears,affectedbyfluctuatingdemandand

globalsupplychaindisruptions,severalArabcountries

areinvestinginthissector,exploringnewmarketsand

seekinglong-termagreements.MoroccoandSaudiArabiaarestrategicallyexpandingtheirphosphateproduction

capacities,positioningthemselvesasglobalsuppliers.

TheaverageGDPoftheArabregion isexpectedtogrowby2.9% in2025andto accelerateby3.7and3.3%, respectively,in2026and2027

TheOfficeChérifiendesPhosphatesGroupinMorocco

andMa’adeninSaudiArabiaareinvestingininfrastructureanddownstreamindustriestomeetbothcurrentandfutureglobaldemand.Theirexpansionplans,whichinclude

multi-billion-dollarprojectsinmining,fertilizerproductionandexportcapabilities,areexpectedtoenhancemarketresilienceandreducepricevolatilityovertime.

Theprojectedincreaseinoilandgasproduction,

inadditiontoenhanceddiversificationawayfrom

hydrocarbonsectors,isexpectedtodrivegrowthinArabhigh-incomecountries.

8

Thesecountrieswill

continuetoinvestinmanufacturing,infrastructure,digitaltransformation,freezones,tourismand

expansionoftheentertainmentsector.GDPis

expectedtogrowby3.3percentin2025,4.2percentin2026and3.3percentin2027.Non-oilGDPis

expectedtogrowby3.5percentin2025.

9

Thisoutlookalsosuggestssignificantrisks,includingeconomicslowdownofkeytradingpartnersasaresultofelevatedUnitedStatestariffs,aswellasfearsofa

potentialresumptionofthewarbetweenIsraelandIrananditsrepercussionsonthesecountriesgiventheir

geographicalproximitytoIran.Despitethedeclineinoilprices,Kuwait,Oman,SaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArabEmirateswillbenefitfromincreasedoilrevenueasaresultofthegradualphasing-outofvoluntaryoilproductioncutsbyOPEC+members,increasingtheiroilrevenues.High-incomecountriesareexpectedtomaintainsubsidiesonfuelandessentialfooditems,keepinginflationrateslowataround2percenton

averageduringtheoutlookperiod.

Bahrainisinvestinginexpandingitspetroleumcapacity;theexpansionoftherefiningcapacityofBahrain

PetroleumCompanyisexpectedtobecompletedby

theendof2025toearly2026.Diversificationeffortsareexpectedtocontinuethroughincreasedinvestmentininfrastructure,logistics,digitaltransformation,financialtechnologyandtourismsectors.In2025–2027,growthisexpectedtobedrivenbybothoilandgassectors

andnon-hydrocarbonsectors,particularlyfinancial

services,manufacturingandtourism.GDPisexpectedtogrowby2.8percentonaverageduringtheoutlookperiod.KuwaitisinvestinginalargenorthernspecialeconomiczoneandtheMubarakAl-KabeerPort,whichareexpectedtoattractlargeinvestmentsandpositionKuwaitasalogisticshub.Thesemajorinfrastructureprojects,alongwithincreasedoilrevenue,willboost