【世界银行】拥有一切？新兴经济体中受过大学教育的女性的职业和家庭

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PolicyResearchWorkingPaper11326

ToHaveItAll?

CareerandFamilyofCollege-EducatedWomeninanEmergingEconomy

ElghafikyBimardhika

DanielHalim

WORLDBANKGROUP

EastAsiaandthePacificRegion&GenderGlobalDepartment

March2026

Averifiedreproducibilitypackageforthispaperisavailableat

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ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper11326

Abstract

Cancollege-educatedwomeninrapidlydevelopingecon-omiesbalancecareerandfamily,ordoescompressedeconomicgrowthpolarizetheirchoices?ThispaperinvestigateshowIndonesianwomennavigatethesedualobjectivesacrossbirthcohortsfromthe1950stothe1990s.Itutilizes38yearsofLaborForceSurveydatatoexamineaggregatecohortpatternsandfiveroundsofIndonesiaFamilyLifeSurveypaneldatatotraceindividuallife-cycletrajectories.Thepaperdocumentsincreasingpolarizationamongyoungercohorts,whicheitherdelaymarriageand

stayinthelaborforceoroptoutofthelaborforcealto-getherpost-marriage.Thepapertracesthisdivergencetotwoconcurrenttrends.First,morewomenentertime-de-manding,high-skilledprofessionstraditionallydominatedbymen.Second,risingconservatismamongyoungmencreatesmarriagemarketfrictions,leavingeducatedwomenwithstarkchoices:conformtoconservativefamilyexpecta-tionsbyleavingwork,orprioritizecareerswhiledelayingorforgoingfamily.

ThispaperisaproductoftheOfficeoftheChiefEconomist,EastAsiaandthePacificRegionandtheGenderGlobalDepartment.ItispartofalargerefortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebat

http://

/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatdhalim@.Averifiedreproducibilitypackage

forthispaperisavailableat

,clickherefordirectaccess.

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ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

ToHaveItAll?CareerandFamilyofCollege-EducatedWomeninanEmergingEconomy

ElghafikyBimardhika

DanielHalim

WorldBank

WorldBank

AuthorizedfordistributionbyAadityaMattoo,Director,DevelopmentResearchGroup,DevelopmentEconomics,WorldBankGroup

Keywords:collegegraduates,femaleemployment,marriage,Indonesia.

JELcodes:J12,J16,J22,J24,O15.

*WethankRythiaAfkar,KathleenBeegle,SarahDong,NurinaMerdikawati,andMarianaViollazforhelpfulfeedback.WearealsogratefultoOmarArias,ForestJarvis,HillaryJohnson,AadityaMattoo,AakashMohpal,KeikoNowacka,HemaSwaminathan,andseminarparticipantsattheEAPCEBrownBagLunch,EastAsianEconomicAssociation(EAEA),ADBresearchseminar,GlobalLaborOrganization(GLO)forinsightfuldiscussions.Allerrorsremainourown.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheBoardofExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

Contactinformation:WorldBankGroup.1818HStreet,NW,Washington,DC20433.Email:

elghafiky.bimardhika@.au;dhalim@.

1

1.Introduction

RapideconomicgrowthafterWorldWarIIusheredinaneweraofprofound

socioeconomicchangesandconsiderablestructuraltransformations.Yet,despitemassive

improvementsinhumancapital(WorldBank,2018;EvansandYuan,2022),femalelabor

forceparticipation(FLFP)inlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesremainspuzzlinglystagnant.Goldin’sinfluentialU-shapedhypothesis(1994)—derivedfromcross-countrycomparisons—suggeststhatfemalelaborforceparticipationwouldinitiallydeclinebeforerisingathigher

developmentlevels.However,recentempiricalstudieschallengethistrajectory.PanelanalysesrevealthattheU-shapedpatterndoesnotholdlongitudinally(GaddisandKlasen,2014;Klasen,2019),leadingresearcherstoconcludethat“genderequalityisnotacorollaryofeconomicgrowth”(Agteetal.,2024).

Agrowingliteraturehighlightshowfamilyformationdecisionsmediatefemalelaborsupply.Theseintrahouseholddynamicshaveimportantmacroeconomicimplications,

influencingaggregatesavings(Fernández-VillaverdeandKrueger,2007,2011)andthe

allocationoftalentacrosssectors(Hsiehetal.,2019,Goldbergetal.,2025).Goldin's(2021)seminalworkarguesthatmarriageandchildbearingdecisionshistoricallyactas

counterforcestowomen’slabormarketparticipation.Associalnormsandsocial

infrastructureco-evolvewitheconomicdevelopment(CavalcantiandTavares,2011),womenbecomeincreasinglyabletobalancecareerandfamilyobjectives

.1

ExaminingU.S.college-educatedwomenbornbetween1878and1978,Goldinidentifiesfivedistinctstagesinhowtheynavigatethesedualobjectives:(i)familyorcareer,(ii)jobthenfamily,(iii)familythenjob,(iv)careerthenfamily,and(v)careerandfamily.Drawingonthisevolution—fromstarktrade-offstogreaterintegration—Goldin(2014)envisionsatrajectorytowarda“grand

genderconvergence”.

Yetthisoptimismmaynottranslatetoemergingeconomies.Advancedeconomieshadcenturiestoadaptsocialnormsgraduallyalongsideeconomicchange.Bycontrast,the

1Earlierliteraturesuggestsadeclineinfertilityoradelayinfamilyformationasfemaleeducation,

employment,andwagesrise(Feyreretal.,2008;Baudinetal.,2015;Cantalini,2017;Bertrandetal.,2021;andKoebeandMarcus,2022).Recentstudiesindevelopedcountriessuggestthathigheducatedwomenare

increasinglyabletoworkandhavefamilyinthelongrun(Jalovaaraetal.,2019;Virtanenetal.,2024),1duetoprogressivefamilypolicies(Kim,2023),expansionofchildcareservices(Baretal.,2018;Hazanetal.,2023),andmoregender-egalitariannorms(Esping-AndersenandBillari,2015).

2

compressedpaceofdevelopmentinemergingeconomiesintensifiessocialnormconflicts

acrossgenerationsandgender(Goldin,2024).Husbandsandmothers-in-lawimpose

conservativeexpectationsonwives(Anukritietal.,2020),withnon-workingwivesbecomingsocialstatussymbols(MunshiandSingh,2024).Ratherthangraduallyexpanding

opportunitiestocombineworkandfamily,rapiddevelopmentmaypolarizeeducatedwomen’soptions:pursuemotherhoodbyconformingtoconservativeexpectationsandleavingwork,orpursuecareersbydelayingorforgoingfamily.

Thispaperexamineshowwomenresolvecareerandfamilyobjectivesastheyattain

highereducationinIndonesia,oneofthefastest-growingemergingeconomiesinthe20th

century.WeutilizeallavailablenationallyrepresentativeLaborForceSurveysinIndonesiatoexaminetheevolvingdynamicsoffamilyformationandlaboroutcomesacrossbirthcohortsfromthe1950stothe1990s.Furthermore,weemployacohort-ageregressionanalysisto

disentanglegenerationaleffectsfromageeffects.FollowingGoldin(2021),wetracetheevolutionof

college-educatedwomen’schoicesonthesetwodimensions.Wedistinguishcareersfrom

jobsbyexaminingoccupationswithhigherskillrequirementstotestwhether“greedywork”inprofessionalcareersimposesfurtherrestraintsonwomen’sabilitytopursuecareerand

familyobjectivessimultaneously.Werestrictoursampletocollege-educatedwomentounderstandhowimprovedlabormarketopportunities(andthus,opportunitycosts)withattaininghighereducationshapethesedynamics.

Wefindincreasingpolarizationinthelabormarketandinfamilyformationoutcomesamongyoungerbirthcohorts.Theyoungerbirthcohortsaremorelikelytoparticipateinthelaborforce.Yet,atthesametime,wearewitnessingaparadox:moreyoungcollegegraduatewomendelayfamilyformation,whilethosewhodonotdelaytendtostarttheirfamilies

earlier.Weoffertwopotentialexplanationsforthistrend.First,morewomencollege

graduatesareabletoenterprestigiousandtime-demandingcareerpositionsthathave

traditionallybeendominatedbymen.Meanwhile,weobservearisingconservatism,

especiallyamongmaleyouth,andconjecturethattheinteractionofthesetwotrendsmayhavedisruptedthemarriagemarketandhinderedfamilyformation.

Toourknowledge,ourpaperprovidesthefirstevidenceontheinterplaybetween

careerandfamilydecisionsamongcollege-educatedwomeninarapidlydeveloping

economy.ExistingevidencefromresearchonIndonesiaexaminesfemalelaborsupply(Cameronetal.,2019)andfamilyformation(DongandMerdikawati,2023)asseparate

3

outcomes.Whileasubstantialliteraturedocumentshowhouseholdresponsibilitiesconstrainwomen'seconomicparticipationinIndonesia

,2

lessattentionhasbeengiventothereverse:howcareerpursuitsshapefamilyformationoutcomesofeducatedwomen.Understandingthisinterplayiscriticalforinterpretingpersistentgendergapsinemployment.Eveneffectiveinterventions—suchasimprovedchildcareaccess,whichincreasesfemalelaborforce

participationby8-10percentagepointsinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries(Halimetal.,2023)—areinsufficienttofullyclosegenderemploymentgaps.Thisraisesafundamentalquestion:doestheremaininggapreflectwomen’spreferencesforfamilyspecialization,orbindingconstraintsthatlimittheirabilitytocombinecareerandfamily?

Indonesiaprovidesanidealsettingtoexaminethesedynamics.Asoneofthefastest-growingeconomiessince1970,itexperiencescompresseddevelopmentalongsidedramaticexpansioninfemalehighereducation.Moreover,Indonesiaoffersexceptionallyrichdata.

TheLaborForceSurvey(Sakernas)isamongthelongest-runningandmostfrequentsurveysinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,spannning38yearsofdata,allowingustoexamine

cohortsbornfrom1950onward.TheIndonesiaFamilyLifeSurvey(IFLS)tracksdetailed

individualtrajectoriesspanningover21yearsacrossfivewaves.Thiscombinationallowsustodocumentbothaggregatepatternsacrosscohortsanddetailedlife-cycledynamics.

Therestofthepaperisorganizedasfollows:

Section2

describesthebackground

contextofthestudyanddetailsourdata.

Section3

elaboratesonouranalyticalframework.Wereportourmainanalysisin

Section4

.

Section5

probesintothepotentialdriversofthe

results.

Section6

discussestherobustnessofourresultsandsummarizesouranalysis.

Section

7

summarizesthepaper.

2.Backgroundcontextsanddata

2.1.Backgroundcontexts

AsthelargesteconomyinSoutheastAsiaandthe16thlargestintheworld,IndonesiaisdubbedoneofAsia’s“TigerCubs”(Restrepo-EchavarríaandArias,2017),growingatanaverageannualrateof5percentsincethe1970s

.3

Enrollmentinprimaryeducationhasbeenvirtuallyuniversalsincethe1980s(WorldBank,2020a).Tertiaryenrollmenthasgrown

2SeeSchanerandDas(2016);Halimetal.(2022);Cameron(2023);andCameronetal.(2023).

3WorldDevelopmentIndicators,accessedonApril21,2025.

4

16times,from2.8percentin1970to45.1percentin2023

.4

Since2012,female

enrollmentintertiaryeducationhassurpassedmaleenrollment,withthegapwideningovertime(

FigureA1

).Theexpansionacceleratedsocialmobilityandenabledtheemergenceofthemiddleclass,whichhasbecomethebackboneofIndonesia’seconomicdevelopment

(WorldBank,2020b).

2.2.Data

OurprimaryanalysisisbasedonthenationallyrepresentativeLaborForceSurvey

(Sakernas)inIndonesia.Sakernasiscollectedtwiceayearbythenationalstatisticsoffice.Itisdesignedtocloselymonitorlabormarketdynamics.Itcontainsgranularinformationaboutemployment,includingthetypeofworkandworkhours,whichallowsustodistinguishjobsandcareers.Inshort,wedefine“careers”asparticipationintime-demanding,high-skill

occupations.Wediscussthisdefinitionfurtherin

Section5.1

.Weharmonizeandpool38yearsofSakernascross-sectionaldatafrom1986to2023,utilizingbothbiannualroundswheneveravailable

.

5,6

Whilethispooledcross-sectionaldatastructureissimilartoGoldin's(2021)analysisofcensusandACSdatafortheUnitedStates,anidealanalysisistousearichpaneldatasettotrackindividuals’transitionsacrosslifestages,asinGoldin's(2021)analysisofHRSdata.Fortunately,Indonesiaalsohasarelativelylonghouseholdpanel,spanningover21years

fromthefirsttothelastrounds.TheIndonesiaFamilyLifeSurvey(IFLS)isalongitudinalsurveythathastrackedthesamehouseholds(andtheirsplits)sinceitsfirstwavein1993.

Therehavebeenfourfollow-upsurveysin1997,2000,2007,and2014

.7

IFLScontainsabundantanddetailedinformationabouthouseholdsandindividualsonvariousaspectsoftheirlives.WeusetheIFLSpaneldatatooffercontrastsandadditional

nuancestothepooledcross-sectionaldata.Witharichemploymentrecallhistory,wecan

constructanindividualemploymentpanelannuallyforupto29years(1986-2014).Assuch,

4WorldDevelopmentIndicators,accessedonMarch31,2025.

5Weprovidethetotalsamplesizeacrossdatasourcesin

TableA1.

6Inearlierrounds,Sakernaswasonlycollectedonceayear.TheAugustroundsarerepresentativeatthedistrictlevel,whiletheFebruaryroundsarerepresentativeonlyattheprovinciallevel.

7Thesurveyisrepresentativeof83percentofthepopulationinthe13sampledprovincesin1993(Straussetal.,2016).

5

wecanidentifywomen’slabormarketentryandexit,aswellasthesequenceoflabormarketandfamilyformationdecisionsthroughouttheirlives

.8

Wedrawontwoadditionalcomplementarydatasetstocontextualizethefindingsandexplorethemechanismsunderlyingtheseoutcomes.First,weusethe2023National

SocioeconomicSurvey(Susenas).Susenasisalsocollectedtwiceayearbythenational

statisticsoffice,andisintendedtocapturebroaderdemographicandsocioeconomic

indicators,suchasfertility,migration,consumption,andpoverty

.9

WeuseSusenasdatatoillustratethecorrelationbetweentheageatwhichindividualsfirstgetmarriedandmaritalrates,aswellastherarityofchildlessnessamongmarriedcouples.

Second,weutilizecomplementarydatafromtheWorldValuesSurvey(WVS)toassesswhetherchangesinsocialattitudesarecorrelatedwithmarriageandlabordynamicsin

Indonesia.WVSisacross-countrysurveyaboutpeople’sviewsandbeliefsonawiderangeoftopics,includingpolitics,culture,religion,andfamily.WeutilizeallthreeavailabledataroundsforIndonesia:Wave4in2001,whenthecountrywasfirstsurveyed;Wave5in2006;andthemostrecentWave7in2018.LikeSakernasandSusenas,WVSisarepeatedcross-

sectionandanationallyrepresentativesurvey.

3.Empiricalstrategy

3.1.AdaptingGoldin’sapproachtoIndonesia

IntheUnitedStates,Goldin(2021)observesthatcollege-educatedwomen’slabor

supplyandfamilyformationdynamicsfromtheearly1900suntilpresenttimesevolveacrossfivestages:(i)familyorcareer,(ii)jobthenfamily,(iii)familythenjob,(iv)careerthen

family,and(v)careerandfamily.Inthefirststage,womenmustchoosebetweenafamilyandajob,adecisionthatremainswiththemthroughouttheirlives.Inthesubsequentthreestages,womenstillhavetochooseoneortheotheratagiventime,butthereisatransitionfromone

8Wefocusourlifecycletrackingonwomenpresentinthelatestwave(2014)andwomenwhoseageis

atleast50inthepreviouswaves.Thissampleconstructionenablesustofocusonwomenwhosecompletelife

cycleisobservable,atleastbythelatestsurveywave.Collegegraduatesaremorelikelytomigrate(BernardandBell,2018;Malamassam,2022).Wecannotascertainthelifecycletransformationofthelabormarketandthe

familyoutcomesofwomenwhoarenolongerpresentinthelatestdata.Additionally,includingcollege

graduateswhohavemigratedbythelatestwavewillbiasthedatainfavorofsingleandstillchildlesswomen,astheyaremorelikelytomigrateaswell(Pardedeetal.,2020).

9Becauseofthebroaderobjectives,SusenasdoesnotcollectasdetailedinformationonemploymentasSakernas.Therefore,ourprimaryanalysisreliesonSakernasinstead.

6

choicetoanother,withdifferentsequencings.Inthefifthstage(presenttimes),womenpursuebothfamilyandcareerobjectivessimultaneously.

Wefocusonthecollegegraduate(atleastDiploma1)womenofthepost-

independencegenerationsuntilthemostrecentbirthcohorts,thatis,1950s-1990sbirth

cohorts.UnlikeGoldin(2021),somecohortsofwomeninourdatahavenotcompletedtheirlifecycle,asweanalyzeamorerecentdataseriescomparedtohers.Nonetheless,Goldin's(2021)frameworkisinstructiveinidentifyingthestagethatcollege-educatedIndonesian

womenarecurrentlyin.

FollowingGoldin(2021),wefirstexaminethedescriptivetrendsoffamilyformationandlaboroutcomesacrossgenerationsorbirthcohortsinSakernas.Giventhatwomen’s

economicparticipationishighlycontingentontheirfamilysituations,cohortanalysisallowsustoseparatelifecycleeffectsonlabormarketoutcomes(Cameronetal.,2019).Foreach

birthcohort,weobservetheiroutcomesinfourstagesoftheirproductiveage:duringtheir

late20s(25–29-year-olds)

,10

their30s,40s,and50s.Wedonotgroupbirthcohortsin

Sakernas,asthelargesamplesizeallowsustouseeachbirthyearasabirthcohort

.11

We

examinebothlabormarketandmarriagetrendsseparately,aswellastheinteractedoutcomes:

marriedandinthelaborforce,unmarriedandinthelaborforce,marriedandnotinthelaborforce,andunmarriedandnotinthelaborforce.

InIFLS,wecanleverageitslongitudinalnaturetoinferwhethercollegegraduatewomensequencebetweenjob/careerandfamily,orwhethertheycanpursueboth

simultaneously.Intotal,wedefinesevengroupsrelevantforIndonesia:(i)familyorcareer/job,(ii)jobthenfamily,(iii)familythenjob,(iv)jobandfamily,(v)careerthenfamily,(vi)familythencareer,and(vii)familyandcareer.

Todistinguishbetweenwomenwhosequence(e.g.,“jobthenfamily”)andthosewhocombinelaborandmarriage(e.g.,“jobandfamily”),weneedtodefineamaximumallowabletimegapbetweenonedecisionandanother.Ourpreferredspecificationisa2-yeardistance

.12

10Peopletypicallygraduatecollegeintheirearly20s.OtherstudieslikeCameronetal.(2019)havealsonotedthatage25istypicallythecriticaljuncturewhenwomen’sLFPpeaksandtheystartswitchingto

childrearingresponsibilities.

11Duetodataavailability,somecohortshavemorelimiteddatapoints.Forexample,sinceourdatastartsinthe1980sattheearliest,wecanonlyobservethe1950sbirthcohortfromtheir30sonward.

12Forrobustness,wealsotestalternativecutoffs:0yearsand3yearsdistance.

7

ThelongitudinalnatureofIFLSalsoenablesustodistinguishbetweenthosewhomanagetoattainacareer-basedoccupation(definedasa“time-demandinghigh-skilledoccupation”andfurtherelaboratedin

Section5.1

)intheirlifetimeandthosewhodonot.

Wecantakeastepfurtherbyfactoringinlabormarketentryorexitduetofamily

formationsthroughoutone’sadultlife,ontopofthetimedistancebetweenoutcomes.Therearetwowayswecandothis.Themostbasicapproachistocategorizethedurationof

temporarylabormarketexitafterfamilyformation.Ifitisbelowthemedian,weconsiderthesewomenaspursuingbothjob/careerandfamilyatrelativelythesametime.Womenareconsideredtobesequencingthetwoobjectivesotherwise.

Alternatively,wedefineamorecomplexgroupingbyalsofactoringinchild-rearing

responsibilities,ontopoftemporarylabormarketexit.Forexample,someonewhohasajobbeforestartingafamily,temporarilyexitsthelabormarketafterhavingchildren,andreturnstothelabormarketbeforetheiryoungestchildturnssixisconsideredtobecombining“jobandfamily”.Meanwhile,someonewiththesamefirsttwoconditions,yetreturnstothelabormarketaftertheiryoungestchildturnssix,issequencing“familythenjob”.Detailed

definitionsofthesegroupsarein

AppendixF1

.

AsinSakernas,wealsoexaminethepost-independencegenerationsofcollege

graduatewomen.However,sinceIFLShasnotbeenupdatedwithanewwave,wecanonlyobservetheoutcomesasrecentasthe1989birthcohort,toensurethattheyoungest

observationisatleast25yearsoldby2014.Additionally,duetothesmallersamplesizeinIFLS,wecategorizebirthcohortsinto10-yearintervals.

3.2.Familyformationindicator

AsinGoldin(2021),weusetwotypesofindicatorsforfamilyformationfortwo

differentdatasets.ReplicatingGoldin's(2021)analysisofpooledcross-sectionaldata(US

censusandACS),weusemaritalstatusinSakernas.Maritalstatusisavailableinalldatasets,allowingcomparability.Incontrast,childbearingisgenerallynotaskedinlaborforce

surveys.Onecommonsolutiontothisistoinferchildbearingbythepresenceofchildreninthehousehold.However,SakernasdoesnotprovideinformationonhouseholdIDsinall

surveyyears.

WearguethatmaritalstatusisajustifiedindicatoroffamilyformationinthecontextofIndonesia,wheretraditionalnormsareparticularlystrong.Thereisstillahighexpectation

thatmarriedcouplesshouldhavechildren,andthosewith(orexpecting)childrenneedtobe

8

married.Closeto80percentofWVSrespondentsagreethathavingachildfulfillsadutytosociety(

FigureA2

).Seventypercentofrespondentsopposehavingunmarriedcouplesas

theirneighbors,andtheactualincidenceofcohabitationisextremelyrareinMuslim-majorityIndonesia(Aninditaetal.,2021).Furthermore,women’sdomesticresponsibilitiesthathindertheirlaborforceparticipationoftenbeginassoonastheyentermarriageandbefore

childbirth,astheprevailingsocialnormsdictatethatmenshouldbetheprimarybreadwinner(Jayachandran,2021)andwomenshouldberesponsibleforthebulkofhousechoresand

childcare(Sayer,2005).

Nonetheless,followingGoldin's(2021)analysisofpaneldata(HRS),weleveragethechildbearingquestionstodefinefamilyformationaseithermarriageorchildbirth,whicheveroccursfirst,intheIFLSanalysis.Thisallowsustoexaminewhethertheresultsofour

primarySakernasanalysisholdunderanalternativedefinitionoffamilyformation.We

improveuponGoldin's(2021)analysisofHRS,assheusesonlyhavingachildasan

indicatoroffamilyformation.Assuch,ourfamilyformationindicatorinthepaneldata

analysiscaptureshouseholdresponsibilitiesmoreexhaustively,ismoreappropriateforthe

culturalcontextofIndonesia,andretainsconsistencywiththeSakernasanalysisthatfocusesonmarriageonly.Eventhen,IFLS2014showsthatlessthan1percentofunmarried

womenhavechildren,andSusenas2023showsthat,despitetherisingtrendinrecentyears(WisanaandSetyonaluri,2024),ameager6.7%ofmarriedindividualsarechildless.

WeviewIFLSasamoresuitablealternativetocomplementourSakernasanalysisthanSusenas,whichalsoincludesquestionsaboutchildbearing.UnlikeSusenas,IFLSasks

childbearingquestionstoallwomenaged15andabove,regardlessofmaritalstatus.Susenas,ontheotherhand,askschildbearingquestionsonlytoever-marriedwomen.Assuch,ifthe

intentionistocapturechildbearingresponsibilities,IFLSismoreexhaustiveinthisregard.

Indeed,onecaninferchildbearingbythepresenceofchildreninthehouseholdinSusenas.

However,thisproxybecomesincreasinglyinaccurateforolderagesasthelikelihoodofchildrenmovingoutofthehouseholdincreaseswithmothers’age

.13

13WecanalsomentionthatwecannotmeasurelaborforceparticipationinSusenas,asthequestionstoconstructthelaborforceparticipationindicatorarenotasexhaustiveasthoseinSakernas.

9

3.3.Regressionframework

Wesubstantiatethedescriptivefindingswithabirthcohort-agefixedeffectsregressionframework.WeonlyusetheSakernasdataintheregressionanalysisbecauseithasa

sufficientlylargesamplesizeforthehigh-orderfixedeffectsmodel.Specifically,weestimatethefollowingregression:

yi=βi+τiBIRTHi+δiAGEi+θiRURALi+πiyEARi+σiPRovi+εi(1)

yiisthelabormarketandfamilyformationoutcomeofindividuali.BIRTHiisour

mainvariableofinterest,thebirthcohort.Itisavectorofbirthcohortdummies,groupedinto5-yearbins.Thisapproachallowsustomodelthenon-lineareffectofbirthcohorts.Fora

robustnesscheck,weconductanalternativespecificationusing10-yearbins.Similarly,AGEiisasetofagegroupdummies.RURALiisadummyforlivinginaruralarea,yEARiisthe

yearfixedeffect,andPRoviistheprovincefixedeffect.εiisaregularidiosyncraticerror.

Weestimate

Equation1

usingalinearprobabilitymodel(OLS)asourmain

specification.Wealsoestimatetheequationwithcategoricaldependentvariablemodel

(multinomiallogit)forsensitivityanalysis.AlloftheestimatorsemployHuber-White’s

robustsandwichSEestimator.IntheOLSestimations,weconductseparateestimationsfor(1)unmarriedandinthelaborforce,(2)marriedandinthelaborforce,and(3)marriedandnotinthelaborforce

,14

indicatingtheinteractionbetweenthelabormarketandfamily

situation.Asforthemultinomiallogit,yirepresentsthefourstatesoflabormarketandfamilyoutcome

combinations.Forthecategoricaldependentvariablemodel,wereportthepredictedprobabilitiesforeachcohortforeaseofinterpretation.

4.Theevoluti