中国互联网行业2026年展望报告-布局人工智能二阶受益者（英文版）-

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

30January2026

ChinaInternet

Outlook2026:TradingtheSecond-OrderAIBeneficiaries

Webelieve2026willbean“activationyear”forChinaconsumerAIaschatbotsmovefromnoveltytohabit,butwedonotthinkthemarketisreadytoconsistentlyprice“AIapplicationwinnersvs.losers.”Earlyshareshiftscanreflectdistributionrouting,marketingcadence,andproductiterationspeedratherthandurablemoats.Therefore,weanchorourtradeonsecond-orderexposuresthatweexpecttomonetizeearlierandwithcleanervisibility:risinginferenceworkloads,incrementalmarketingintensity,andAI-enabledproductivityincontent-heavyindustries.OursectortoppicksareBaidu,Alibaba,Tencent,NetEaseandKuaishou.

•Stilltooearlytotrade“AIappwinnervs.AIapploser.”WeexpectaggressivecompetitionaslargeChineseInternetplatforms(i.e.TencentandAlibaba)trytoshapethenexttrafficgateway,butwethinkitremainsprematuretounderwritestructuralshareoutcomesfromearlyusermetrics.Inourview,aninvestableapproachistoavoidpredictingbinaryapp-levelwinnersatthisstage,insteadpositioninginbeneficiariesoftheindustry’sAIengagementpush,whereupsidedependsmoreonadoptionbreadththanonasingleapp’smarketshare.

•ChinaAIinfrastructurebenefitsfromrapidtokenconsumptiongrowth(OW:Alibaba,Baidu).Weviewrisingdaily,multi-turnchatbotusageasadirecttailwindtoinferencedemandandtokenthroughput.Asengagementbecomeshabitualandagentic“chat-to-action”expandsquerydepth,weexpecttokenconsumptiontocompound—supportinghigherutilizationacrosscloudandAIstacks.WepreferAlibabaandBaiduasliquidwaystoexpressthetoken-growththesis,asweexpectthevaluechaintorewardscaledinfrastructure,deploymentcapacity,andecosystem-levelintegration.

•Onlineadplatformsbenefitfromelevatedmarketingspendtobuildchatbotuserbases(OW:Kuaishou).Weexpectlargeplatformstospendincrementallyonacquisitionandre-engagementastheycompeteforchatbotmindshare,andwethinkperformance-orientedchannelsstandtocaptureameaningfulshareofthatbudget.Inourview,thiscreatesatradablesetupforKuaishou,whichcanbenefitfromhigherindustrysales&marketingintensityeveniftheeventual“winning”chatbotremainsuncertain.

•OnlinegamingbenefitsfromAIadoption(OW:Tencent,NetEase).WebelieveAIcancompressthe“idea-to-market”cyclebyacceleratingcontentcreation,iteration,andliveoperations,helpingpublishersshipmorecontentwithhighercadenceandpotentiallyimprovingROIondevelopmentspend.WepreferTencentandNetEaseasdirectbeneficiaries,giventheirscale,pipelinedepth,andabilitytooperationalizeAItoolingacrossproductionworkflowswhilestayingleveredtoasupportivelicensingcadence.

HeadofChinaEquityResearchandCo-HeadofAsiaTMT

Research

AlexYaoAC

(8621)61066505

alex.yao@

SACRegistrationNumber:S1730523020001

AndreChang,CFA

(86-21)61066362

andre.ch.chang@

SACRegistrationNumber:S1730520080002

DanielChen

(86-21)61066205

daniel.q.chen@

SACRegistrationNumber:S1730521040001

OliviaXu

(86-21)61066138

olivia.w.xu@

SACRegistrationNumber:S1730525060001

NancyLiu

(8621)61066343

nancy.liu@

SACRegistrationNumber:S1730524090001J.P.MorganSecurities(China)Company

Limited

Seepage10foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.

J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

2

AlexYao

(8621)61066505

alex.yao@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

30January2026

J.PMorgan

ConsumerAIadoption:chatbotsbecomethenextgateway,and2026turnsintoan“activationyear”

Webelieve2026willbeastep-changeyearforconsumer-facingAIadoptioninChina,aschatbotsmovefromnoveltytodailyutilityandbeginreshapinghowusersdiscoverinformation,evaluateoptions,andinitiateactions.Inourview,

ByteDance’sDoubaoreachingroughly100milliondailyactiveusersisameaningfulmilestonebecauseitsignalsthat

general-purposechatinteractionhascrosseda“good-enough”thresholdformass-marketusageandthatdistribution-scaleplatformscannowpushAIintohabitualconsumerbehavior.

WealsoviewthisaspartofaglobalinterfacetransitionratherthanaChina-onlyphenomenon.Recently,Reuterscitedan800millionChatGPTweeklyactiveuserbaseinthecontextofOpenAI’sadvertisingtests,underscoringhowquickly

consumerAIcancompoundonceproductusefulnessanddistributionalign.WeusethisglobaladoptionarcasareferencepointforwhyChinaplatformsareunlikelyto“under-invest”inconsumerAIonceacredibleadoptionpathbecomes

visible.

Figure1:ChatGPTweeklyactiveusers

Source:OpenAIofficialwebsite(asof22January2026)

Inourview,thestrategicimplicationisthatchatbotscanevolveintoahigh-frequencytrafficgatewaythatsitsupstreamofmanyAIusecases.Ifthatisthedirectionoftravel,weexpectmajorChinaInternetplatforms(i.e.AlibabaandTencent)tocompetemoreaggressivelyonconsumerAIengagementin2026,includingthroughproductplacement,ecosystemrouting,andselectivemarketinginvestment.Wethinkthiscompetitivepushmattersfortworeasons.

•Itacceleratestokenconsumptionasmoresessionsbecomedaily,multi-turninteractionsratherthanoccasionalqueries.

•Itliftstheprobabilitythatincrementalsalesandmarketingbudgets,whetherinternalizedwithinecosystemsordeployedexternally,flowtowardperformance-orientedacquisitionchannelsthatcanefficientlyscaledownloadsandre-

engagement.

Fromaninvestableperspective,wekeepourcorestancethatitremainstooearlytotrade“AIappwinnersvslosers”in

China’schatbotmarketbecausethemarketisstillformingandshort-termsharemovementcanreflectdistributionand

productiterationcadenceratherthandurablemoats.Instead,weanchorouractionableimplicationsonsecond-order

exposures:1)AIinfrastructureandcloudplayersthatcancapturerisinginferenceworkloads;and2)adplatformsthatcanbenefitfromelevatedindustrysalesandmarketingintensityasplatformscompetetoshapethenewconsumergateway.

3

AlexYao

(8621)61066505

alex.yao@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

30January2026

J.PMorgan

EnterpriseAIadoption:ROIbecomestangibleinhigh-stakeworkflows,ledbycoding

WebelieveenterpriseAIadoptioninflectswhenthevaluepropositionbecomesmeasurableinhigh-stakeworkflows—

eitherbysubstitutinglaborhours,raisingoutputperemployee,orcompressingcycletimesinprocessesthatdirectly

determinerevenueandproductvelocity.Inourview,softwaredevelopmentistheclearestproofpointtodaybecauseitsitsattheintersectionofcost,speed,andcompetitivedifferentiation,andbecauseAIassistancecanbeinstrumentedand

measured(time-to-complete,commits,PRs,defectrates).

PublicdatapointsincreasinglysupportthatAIisalreadymovingfromexperimentationintoproduction.AlphabetCEO

SundarPichaistatedthatmorethanaquarterofallnewcodeatGoogleisgeneratedbyAIandthenreviewedandacceptedbyengineers.MicrosoftResearchpublishedexperimentalevidencethatdeveloperswithGitHubCopilotcompleteda

standardizedcodingtask55.8%fasterthanacontrolgroup.Thesedatapointsdonotprovethateveryorganizationwillrealizeidenticalgains,buttheydovalidatetheunderlyingmechanism:AIcopilotscanconvertmodelcapabilityintomeasurablethroughputimprovementsinmission-criticalworkflow.

Wealsobelieveenterpriseadoptionextendsbeyondcodingintocustomeroperationsandsupport,whereservicequalityandcostsaredirectlyobservable.KlarnahasrepeatedlydisclosedmeaningfulefficiencyoutcomesfromitsAIassistant.ReutersreportsthatKlarnasaiditsAIassistantperformsworkequivalentto700employeesandreducedaverageresolutiontime

from11minutesto2minutes,alongsidebroaderoperationalimprovements.WecitethisnotasauniversaltemplatebutasevidencethatenterpriseAIcandeliverROIatscaleinworkflowswithclearmetricsandfeedbackloops.

InChina,weseeasimilardirectionoftravel:platformsareproductizingAIintoenterprisetoolkitsratherthanframingAIasonlyanR&Dcapability.Tencent,forexample,statedthatitsAIcodingtool“CodeBuddy”reducescodingtimeby40%andincreasesR&Defficiencyby16%inthecontextofitsenterpriseSaaS+AItoolkit.Whilewetreatcompany-providedmetricswithappropriateconservatism,weviewthemashelpfulsignalsthatvendorsarenowactivelysellingAIvalue

propositionsinoperationallanguage(timesaved,efficiencylift),whichistypicallyaprecursortobroaderprocurementadoption.

Fromaninvestableperspective,webelievesustainedadoptionofAIcodingandotherhigh-stakeworkflowssupportsourthesisthatfoundationmodeldevelopersandplatform-scaleAIsuppliersbenefitfinanciallyandoperationally.Financially,theycancaptureAIworkloaddemandthroughcloud,APIs,andenterpriseofferings.Operationally,theycanlowerinternalR&Dandcontent/opscosts,whichbecomesincreasinglyimportantifmodelpricingcontinuestoresetandpushesvalue

capturetowarddistribution,workflows,andexecution.

Agenticcommerce:“chat-to-action”becomesanewconversionlayer,withearlyoptionalityacrossverticals

Weviewagenticcommerceasthenextstepafterconsumerchatadoption:theinterfacenotonlyanswersquestions,butalsoinitiatesandcompletestransactions.WebelieveAlibaba’slatestmovemakesthistransitiontangibleinChina.AccordingtoReuters,AlibabaupgradeditsQwenapptoletusersorderfoodandbooktravelwithinthechatinterface,integrating

servicessuchasTaobao,Alipay,Fliggy,andAmap,andenablingin-chatpaymentsviaAlipay.Reutersalsodescribeda

beta“TaskAssistant”thatcanexecutemulti-steptaskssuchasplacingcalls,processingdocuments,andplanningcomplexroutes.

4

AlexYao

(8621)61066505

alex.yao@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

30January2026

J.PMorgan

Figure2:IllustrationoffoodorderonQwenapp

Source:NFNews(link)(asof15January2026)

Weframethenear-termopportunityprimarilyasfunnelefficiencyratherthanimmediatemarket-sharedisruption.Inourview,thefirst-orderbenefitisthataconversationalinterfacecanreducefrictionacrossdiscovery,comparison,and

checkout,potentiallyimprovingconversionandretentionwithinAlibaba’secosystem.Thismattersevenifcustomer

acquisitionremainscompetitive,becauseagenticUXcanraisethevalueofeachincrementalusersessionbyturningintentintoactionmorereliably.

Wealsoseelong-datedoptionalityacrossverticals,butweavoidprematureconclusionsonwho“wins”or“loses”giventheearlystageandlimiteddisclosure.ForverticalleaderssuchasOTAincumbents,webelievethemorerealisticnear-term

riskisupstream:wherejourneysstartandhowintentiscaptured,ratherthanimmediateinventorydisintermediation.Travelremainscomplexandservice-intensive(itinerarychanges,after-salessupport,trust),soweexpectmulti-quarter

experimentationbeforeanystructuralshareread-throughbecomesvisible.Conversely,verticalleaderscanrespondbyembeddingtheirownagenticlayersandprotectinghigh-frequencyusecasesinsidetheirownapps.

Weseemultiplepotentialmonetizationpaths,andwedonotassumeasingledominantmodelthisearly.Agenticcommercecanmonetizeviahighertransactionconversionandimprovedtake-ratemix,performanceadvertisingattachedtohigh-intentconversationaljourneys,merchant-facingtoolsthatautomatecontentandoperations,andhigherpaymentattachwherein-chatpaybecomeshabitual.WealsonotethatglobalplatformsareincreasinglyexploringmonetizationwithinAIinterfaces;forexample,ReutersreportedOpenAIbegantestingadsinChatGPT,highlightingthatonceusagereachesscale,

monetizationexperimentationtypicallyfollows.

Gaming:AIacceleratescontentsupply,extractiondrivesgenreinnovation,andlicensingremainssupportive

WebelieveChinagamingcanseeanotherstrongyearin2026,andwethinkAIadoptionisanunderappreciatedtailwindbecausegamingisstructurallyproduction-constrained.Inourview,theprimaryimpactofAIisnotthatitreplaces

creativity,butthatitcompressesthe“idea-to-market”cyclebyacceleratingassetcreation,iteration,andlive-ops

5

AlexYao

(8621)61066505

alex.yao@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

30January2026

J.PMorgan

workflows—therebyincreasingcontentsupplyinbothquantityandquality,whichcanliftengagementandwalletshareovertime.

WeseecredibleevidencethatleadingpublishersarealreadyinvestinginAI-enabledtoolingforgamedevelopment.

ReutersreportedTencentreleasedopen-source3Dgenerationmodelsthatcanconverttextandimagesintohigh-quality3Dvisualsquickly,explicitlytargetingapplicationsincludinggamedevelopmentanddesign.Separately,Tencent’sown

communicationsarounditsinternationalpublishingarmhighlightedAItoolingshowcasedaroundGDC,reinforcingthatlargepublishersareactivelyproductizingAIinsideproductionpipelinesratherthantreatingitasadistantconcept.

Wealsobelievecontentinnovationremainsthecoredriverofindustrygrowth,andweseeextraction(搜打撤)asa

meaningfulgenrecyclethatcancontributeto2026growththroughbothnewlaunchesandmodeintegrationintoexistingfranchises.Wereferencethegenre’scontinuedglobalmomentumasasupportingsignal:forexample,GamesRadarnotedKrafton’splanstoenterextractionshooterswithaPUBGspinoffaspublisherscontinueto“cashin”onthecategory’s

popularity.ForChina-relevantexamples,wenotethatArenaBreakout:Infinitepositionsitselfexplicitlyasatactical

extractionshooterandlistsaSeptember2025releaseonSteam,illustratingthatthegenreisalreadyscalingintobroaderdistributionchannelsandplatforms.

Finally,weviewtheregulatoryenvironmentasbenign-to-supportiveforcontentsupply.Themostconcreteevidenceisthesteadylicensingcadence:industrytrackingandNikoPartnersreportingindicateChina’sNPPAapproved1,771gamesin2025,thehighestannualtotalsince2018,whichsuggestsnormalizedapprovalsandahealthiercontentpipelineinto2026.

Figure3:TotalgamerevenueforTencent,2024-27E(Rmbmn)

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

-

310,10922%276,945

240,764

197,600

15%

12%

20242025E2026E2027ETotalgamerevenue%YoY

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Source:Companyannualreportfor2024,J.P.Morganestimates

Figure4:TotalgamerevenueforNetEase,2024-27E(Rmbmn)

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

-

120,011

107,472

93,964

83,623

12%

14%12%

20242025E2026E2027E

20%

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

mmGameandrelatedvalue-addedservices%YoY

Source:Companyannualreportfor2024,J.P.Morganestimates

Areviewofsectorsharepricedriversin2025

Multiplere-ratingasaresultofnarrativechangeswasakeysharepricedriverin2025.Chinainternetequitiesin

2025weredrivenpredominantlybymultiplere-ratingratherthanearningsrevisions.Sharepriceperformancewasshapedmainlybyshiftsinnarrative,perceivedstrategicpositioning,andlong-termoptionality,withAIexposureemergingasthemostpowerfulcatalystacrossthesector.

•AI:Alibaba,Baidu,Kuaishou.Thekeydriverbehindmultipleexpansionwasnarrativechange,particularlywhere

investorsreassessedacompany’sroleintheevolvingAIstack.Alibaba,BaiduandKuaishouweretheclearest

beneficiaries,inourview.ForAlibaba,themarketincreasinglyviewedthegroupnotmerelyasamaturee-commerceplatformbutasabroad-basedAIinfrastructureandapplicationprovider,spanningcloud,enterpriseservicesand

consumer-facingAIproducts.Baidu’sreratingwasanchoredinimprovingconfidencearoundthecommercialization

pathwayofitscloud,foundationmodelsandKunlunxin,whileKuaishoubenefitedfromareassessmentofitsin-houseKlingmodel,andgenerativeAI’spotentialtoenhancecontentsupply,advertisingefficiencyandmonetizationperuser.

•ExpansionofbusinessTAMorscope:TME,DamaiEntertainment.BeyondAI,perceivedexpansionofbusiness

scopeortotaladdressablemarketalsosupportedmultiplereratinginselectnames.TencentMusicandDamai

Entertainmentarenotableexampleswhereinvestorsbegantoassignvaluetoadjacentgrowthvectors—includingfans

6

AlexYao

(8621)61066505

alex.yao@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

30January2026

J.PMorgan

economy,creatorecosystemsandIP-drivenmonetization—ratherthanviewingthesebusinessessolelythroughthelensoflegacymusicstreamingorticketingmultiples.Thesecompaniesdidnotnecessarilydeliversharpnear-termearningsupgrades,buttheirlongergrowthrunwayjustifiedahighervaluationframework.

•Changeofcompetitivelandscape:Meituan.IncontrasttoAI-exposednamesthatbenefitedfromstrategicre-

positioning,Meituan’ssharepriceperformancewasweigheddownbydeterioratingcompetitioninfooddeliveryandquickcommerce.Heightenedrivalry,greatersubsidyintensity,andrenewedconcernsaroundlong-termmargin

sustainabilityshiftedinvestorfocusawayfromlong-termplatformdominancetowardnear-termprofitabilityrisk.

Earningsrevisionwasalessmeaningfulsharepricedriverandmorerelevanttonon-AIstocksandverticalleaders:NetEase,Beike,etc.Incontrast,earningsrevisionsplayedasecondaryroleinnamesthatarelessAI-related,especiallyforcategoryleaderswithalreadywell-establishedbusinessmodels,suchasNetEaseorBeike.Inthesecases,shareprice

movementsweremorecloselylinkedtooperatingexecution,margindeliveryandcashflowquality,ratherthanstrategicre-positioningoroptionalitynarratives.

7

AlexYao

(8621)61066505

alex.yao@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

30January2026

J.PMorgan

Figure5:2025SharepriceperformancedecompositionforChineseinternetsectors

Company

Ticker

Marketcap(US$m)

Price

2025StockReturn

Relative

returnvs.MXCN

Index

Changein25EPE

-

-

25CYEPSrevision

25CY

Revenue

revision

Tencent

700HKEQUITY

726,173

621

44%

15%

31%1

0%

5%

Alibaba

BABAUSEQUITY

419,372

176

73%

45%1

48%-3

0%

-3%

Pinduoduo

PDDUSEQUITY

145,954

103

17%

-11%

47%-2

0%

-13%

MeituanDianping

3690HKEQUITY

77,046

98

-32%

-60%-3

16%-13

2%

-7%

NetEase

NTESUSEQUITY

84,709

134

54%

26%

35%1

4%

0%

JD.com

JDUSEQUITY

42,480

29

-17%

-46%

41%-4

1%

9%

Kuaishou

1024HKEQUITY

46,031

82

55%

26%

64%

6%

1%

T

TCOMUSEQUITY

43,022

62

5%

-24%-

36%6

3%

1%

TME

TMEUSEQUITY

26,688

17

54%

26%

43%

8%

6%

Baidu

BIDUUSEQUITY

55,279

158

55%

27%1

16%-2

8%

-6%

Didi

DIDIYUSEQUITY

21,931

5

16%

-13%1

14%-4

6%

-2

%

Beike

BEKEUSEQUITY

21,763

19

-14%

-43%

54%-4

4%

-9

%

AlibabaHealth

241HKEQUITY

14,181

7

52%

24%

49%

2%

3%

Bilibili

BILIUSEQUITY

15,167

36

36%

7%

10%2

4%

-1%

Kanzhun

BZUSEQUITY

9,102

18.8

48%

19%

30%1

4%

0%

Vipshop

VIPSUSEQUITY

9,098

17.7

I31%

3%

32%-

1%

0%

Kingsoft

3888HKEQUITY

5,626

31.3

-15%

-44%

3%-1

8%

-14%

DamaiEntertainment

1060HKEQUITY

3,791

1.0

100%

72%1

38%-1

6%

KingsoftCloud

KCUSEQUITY

4,471

14.8

-1%

-30%-1

91%-20

8%

9%

XD

2400HKEQUITY

5,826

92

158%

130%

28%10

2%

13%

AutoHome

ATHMUSEQUITY

2,670

22.5

-14%

-43%

4%-1

7%

-4%

PingAnHealthcare

1833HKEQUITY

4,195

15.14

127%

99%2

37%-3

3%

6%

YY

JOYYUSEQUITY

3,425

67

55%

26%

28%2

1%

-7%

Weride

WRDUSEQUITY

2,963

8.7

-39%

-67%-

56%3

8%

-59%

Weibo

WBUSEQUITY

2,671

11

7%

-21%

14%

6%

-4%

iQiyi

IQUSEQUITY

2,051

2

-4%

-33%-9

6%

-9%

Momo

MOMOUSEQUITY

1,110

7.0

-15%

-43%

18%-2

8%

4%

Maoyan

1896HKEQUITY

1,065

7.2

-13%

-41%

75%-5

0%

-8%

Huya

HUYAUSEQUITY

963

4.3

-6%

-34%1

13%-5

6%

0%

Dingdong

DDLUSEQUITY

666

3

-24%

-52%

6%-2

8%

-9%

KWEB

KWEBUSEQUITY

36.1

16%

-12%

MSCIChina

MXCNINDEX

88.9

I28%

0%

25%

3%

5%

Mean

26%

-2%

30%-20%

-3

%

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.(dataasofJan29,2026)

AreviewofsectorsharepricedriversYTD

Year-to-date,multiplere-ratingremainsthedominantsharepricedriver:

•AI:Alibaba,Kuaishou,Baidu.AI-linkednamescontinuetoanchorvaluationupside.Alibaba,KuaishouandBaiduhaveallbenefitedfromsustainedinvestorfocusonAIadoptioncurves,ecosystempositioningandlonger-term

monetizationpotential;wediscusstheseindetailinourrecentlypublishedreportsonAlibaba:T-HeadIPOnewsisasentimentcatalyst,Baidu:EarlyAImomentumbeginstounderpinrevenuestabilizationandKuaishou:KlingAIgainspopularityoverseas.Importantly,thisreratinghasoccurreddespiteonlymodestnear-termearningsvisibility,

underscoringthatthemarketisdiscountingstrategicrelevanceratherthanimmediateprofitinflection.

8

AlexYao

(8621)61066505

alex.yao@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

30January2026

J.PMorgan

•Regulatoryconcerns:T,PDD,DiDi,TME.Atthesametime,regulatoryconcernshavere-emergedasa

sector-specificvaluationheadwind,particularlyforcompanieswherepolicyuncertaintydirectlyaffectsbusinessmodelsorlong-termprofitability.T,PDD,DiDiandTMEhaveallseenvaluationsensitivitytoregulatoryoverhangs,

rangingfromdatacomplianceandpricingpracticestoplatformgovernanceandlaborregulation.Whilenoneoftheseissuesnecessarilyimplystructuralimpairment,theyhaveconstrainedmultipleexpansionrelativetoAI-exposedpeers.

•Changeofcompetitivelandscape:Meituan.Year-to-date,thecompetitivelandscapeforMeituanhasbecomemore

mixedratherthanuniformlynegative.Ontheonehand,increasedregulatoryattentiononplatformpricingbehavior,

subsidypractices,andmerchantburdenhashelpedcurbthemostaggressiveformsofirrationalcompetition,whichhasprovidedsomesupporttovaluationexpectationsarounddownsiderisk.Ontheotherhand,competitivepressureremainsstructurallyelevated.AlibabaandJDcontinuetodemonstratestrongstrategiccommitmenttofooddeliveryandquick

commerce,viewinginstantretailasacriticalextensionoftheirbroadere-commerceandconsumerecosystemsrather

thanashort-termfinancialinitiative.Wethinktheirwillingnesstoinvestaggressively,leveragelogisticsinfrastructure,andcross-subsidizefromcorebusinesseslimitsMeituan’sabilitytoreassertmarginleadershipinthenearterm.Asa

result,whileregulatoryinterventionmayhavestabilizedthecompetitiveenvironmentatthemargin,ithasnotremovedthefundamentalstrategicchallengeposedbywell-capitalizedincumbents.ThiskeepsMeituan’smultiplerange-bound,withvaluationmoresensitivetosignsofcompetitiverationalizationthantoincrementaloperationalexecution.

Figure6:YTDsharepriceperformancedecompositionforChineseinternetsectors

Company

Ticker

Market

cap

(US$m)

Price

StockReturn

Relative

returnvs.MXCN

Index

Changein26EPE

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

5

1

26CYEPSrevision

26CY

Revenue

revision

Tencent

700HKEQUITY

726,173

621

4%

-3%

4%

-

1%

0%

Alibaba

BABAUSEQUITY

419,372

176

20%

13%

24%

-

4%

0%

Pinduoduo

PDDUSEQUITY

145,954

103

-9%

-16%

-10%

%

0%

MeituanDianping

3690HKEQUITY

77,046

98

-5%

-12%

12%

-15%

0%

NetEase

NTESUSEQUITY

84,709

134

-3%

-10%

-3%

0%

0%

JD.com

JDUSEQUITY

42,480

29

2%

-5%

14%

-1

1%

-1%

Kuaishou

1024HKEQUITY

46,031

82

29%

22%

28%

%

0%

T

TCOMUSEQUITY

43,022

62

-13%

-20%

-13%

%

0%

TME

TMEUSEQUITY

26,688

17

-2%

-9%

-4%

3%

0%

Baidu

BIDUUSEQUITY

55,279

158

21%

14%

22%

-

1%

0%

Didi

DIDIYUSEQUITY

21,931

5

-11%

-18%

-10%

-

1%

0%

Beike

BEKEUSEQUITY

21,763

19

19%

12%

19%

-

1%

0%

AlibabaHealth

241HKEQUITY

14,181

6.8

35%

28%

N/A

N/A

N/A

Bilibili

BILIUSEQUITY

15,167

36

46%

39%

46%

%

0%

Kanzhun

BZUSEQUITY

9,102

19

-8%

-15%

-5%

-3%

0%

Vipshop

VIPSUSEQUITY

9,098

17.7

0%

-7%

-1%

%

0%

Kingsoft

3888HKEQUITY

5,626

31.3

10%

3%

14%

-3%

-1%

DamaiEntertainment

1060HKEQUITY

3,791

1.0

4%

-3%

N/A

N/A

N/A

KingsoftCloud

KCUSEQUITY

4,471

14.8

43%

36%

41%

2%

1%

XD

2400HKEQUITY

5,826

92

42%

34%

42%

0%

0%

AutoHome

ATHMUSEQUITY

2,670

22.5

1%

-6%

N/A

N/A

N/A

PingAnHealthcare

1833HKEQUITY

4,195

15.1

l8%

0%

7%

%

0%

YY

JOYYUSEQUITY

3,425

67.2

4%

-3%

3%

%

1%

Weride

WRDUSEQUITY

2,963

9

0%

-7%

-5%

%

-3%

Weibo

WBUSEQUITY

2,671

11

7%

0%

7%

0%

0%

iQiyi

IQUSEQUITY

2,051

2.1

11%

4%

14%

-3%

0%

Momo

MOMOUSEQUITY

1,110

7.0

6%

-1%

9%

-3%

-1%

Maoyan

1896HKEQUITY

1,065

7.2

3%

-4%

5%

-2%

-1%

Huya

HUYAUSEQUITY

963

4

50%

43%

48%

%

2%

Dingdong

DDLUSEQUITY

666

2.8

13%

6%

N/A

N/A

N/A

KWEB

KWEBUSEQUITY

8,732

36.1

6%

-1%

MSCIChina

MXCNINDEX

12,320,580

88.9

l7%

0%

7%

0%

1%

Mean

11%

4%

12%

-

1%

0%

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.?(dataasofJan29,2026)

Howmuchroomforfurthermultiplere-rating?

Lookingahead,thescopeforfurthermultiplere-ratingwillincreasinglydependonrelativevaluationcomparisonwithglobalpeers,ratherthanabsolutedomestichistory,inourview.

9

AlexYao

(8621)61066505

alex.yao@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

30January2026

J.PMorgan

Ausefulreferencepointisthevaluatio