摩根大通-中国汽车行业：抄底机会浮现-China Auto Industry Bottom-fishing Opportunity emerging-20260311

AsiaPaci

itie.slrhlist

u:/t/ywwveauce

11March2026

ThismaterialisneitherintendedtobedistributedtoMainlandChinainvestorsnortoprovidesecuritiesinvestmentconsultancyserviceswithintheterritoryof MainlandChina.Thismaterialoranyportionhereofmaynotbereprinted,soldorredistributedwithoutthewrittenconsentofJ.P.Morgan.

ChinaAutoIndustry

Bottom-fishingopportunityemerging

•Bottomingoutorjustshort-termvolatility?Chinaautoscollectivelystartedtoreboundsincemid-lastweek(by~6%vsMXCN4%).ThestrengthisparticularlynoticeabletodayfollowingNio’spositivecommentson2026profitabilityatits2025resultcalllastnight(

clickhere

).WhileNio’srallytoday(15%vsHSCEIdownslightly)islargelycompanyspecific(e.g.full-yearprofitand1Q26guidancebeat),webelieveinvestorsarepotentiallylookingbeyondtheindustrytroughin1Q26andsearchingforcompanieswith:1)earningsresilienceand2)astrongvolumereboundinto2Q26.

•OurviewsonkeyOEMs:1)WebelieveGeelyandSinotrukwillbeat2026Bloombergconsensusestimatesdespiteindustryheadwindsondemandandinputcosthike;2)WeexpectNIOandXPengtoexhibitthemostupside(fromtroughtopeak)during2Q-3Q/2H26,ledbyindividualstories,althougharguablytheycanbemorevolatiletoo;3)webelieveBYDandLeapmotorshouldgraduallyreboundposttheMarchresultseasonasthemarketincorporatesmoreconservative/deliverableearningsassumptions,and4)Incontrast,LiAutocouldseehighersharepricepressuregivendownsiderisktoconsensusearnings(~Rmb4bnprofitvsJPMe~Rmb800mnloss)(

clickhere

fordetailedanalysisoneachname).

•Recapofour2Q26reboundthesis:WhyMarch/Aprilentrypoint?WehighlightedourviewthatChinaautosshouldexhibitareboundinto2Q26fortwofundamentalreasons(

clickhere

,“2026:Arepeatof2018and2025”on8Feb):1)PVdemandtosurgeby~30%QoQin2Q26atbothawholesaleandretaillevel,thankstoalowbasebutmoreimportantly,improvingtraffictowardstheBeijingAutoShow(24April-3May),and2)EarningsdowngradeheadwindsbehindusposttheMarchresultseason.

•J.P.Morgan“ChinaAutoSentimentIndex”bottomingout:WelaunchedourproprietaryAI-poweredsentimentindextotrackunderlyingbuyerinterestacrossbrandsinChina(

clickhere

).Historically,theindexhasproventobeagoodindicatoridentifyinginflectionpointswhencombiningwithfundamentalanalysis.WenotetheIndexhasbottomedatend-Febandstartedtoedgeup,nowfortwoweeksinarowandabovethe25%quantile,astrongindicatorofexpectedimprovingstoretrafficintoApril,supportingour2Q26demandreboundthesis(seeFigures11-20).

•Latestindustrydataataglance:1)Febsales,releasedbyCAAMtoday,seerisingPVNEVpenetrationof47%vs44%inJan.Exportsremainabrightspot,up49%yoyin2M26.2)Heavydutytruck(HDT)wasalsostrong,up17%yoyin2M26,whileoverallCVexportswereup22%–inlinewithourpositiveview.3)PricingremainschallenginginFeb:Basedonouranalysis,industry-widediscountsstoodatarecordlevelof17.6%byend-Feb,thehighestsincewestartedtrackingthesedatasince2017.Ofwhich,discountsoflocalbrandswidenedby76bpsto11.2%in2HFebcomparedto2HJan,whileJVbrandsstayflattishandpremiumbrandssaw98bpscontraction.

HeadofAPACAutoResearchNickLaiAC

(65)6801-3176

nick.yc.lai@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesSingaporePrivate

Limited/J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)

Limited

JiajieShen,CFA

(86-21)61066352

jiajie.shen@

SACRegistrationNumber:S1730520030006J.P.MorganSecurities(China)Company

Limited

CathyLiu

(852)2800-8629

cathy.xiao.liu@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/

J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

RebeccaWen

(852)2800-8505

rebecca.y.wen@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/

J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

ShirleyFeng

(86-21)6106-6149

shirley.x.feng@

SACRegistrationNumber:S1730524040001J.P.MorganSecurities(China)Company

Limited

Seepage10foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.

J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

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Table1:PVwholesaleandretailvolumequarterlyforecastsin2026

1Q26E

2Q26E

3Q26E

4Q26E

FY26yoy

PV

Wholesales

5,890,451

7,508,467

7,721,529

8,842,747

QOQ-JPMe

-33%

27%

3%

15%

Seasonalqoq

-10%

4%

-1%

22%

YOY-JPMe

-8%

6%

0%

0%

0%

RetailPV

4,290,451

5,808,467

6,011,529

7,100,567

QoQ

-39%

35%

3%

18%

YoY

-18%

2%

-1%

1%

-4%

Source:J.P.Morganestimates,CPCA,CAAM

ChinaAutoMonthlySales

Table2:ChinaautoFeb2026wholesalesanalysis

Feb-26Feb-26Feb-26YTD

Sales(000')

(MoM%)

(YoY%)

(YoY%)

TotalAuto

1,805

-23.1%

-15.2%

-8.8%

Passengervehicle(PV)

1,536

-22.7%

-15.4%

-10.8%

Sedan

542

-27.3%

-28.0%

-21.1%

MPV

56

-24.0%

-29.4%

-22.8%

SUV

919

-20.0%

-3.3%

-1.3%

Crossover

18

-8.7%

-44.6%

-29.3%

Commercialvehicle(CV)

269

-24.9%

-14.0%

4.1%

Bus

29

-17.5%

-14.9%

-10.4%

Truck

240

-25.7%

-13.9%

6.0%

Source:ChinaAutoMarket,monthlypricingdiscountdatabase,Mar112026

3

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J.PMorgan

PricingDiscounts

Figure1:Averagediscountofdomestic-mademodelsbybrand

42%

37%

32%

27%

22%

17%

12%

7%

2%

2017

2017

2017

2018

2018

2018

2019

2019

2019

2020

2020

2020

2021

2021

2021

2022

2022

2022

2023

2023

2023

2024

2024

2024

2025

2025

2025

2026

1H-Jan

1H-May

1H-Sept

1H-Jan

1H-May

1H-Sept

1H-Jan

1H-May

1H-Sept

1H-Jan

1H-May

1H-Sep

1H-Jan

1H-May

1H-Sep

1H-Jan

1H-May

1H-Sep

1H-Jan

1H-May

1H-Sep

1H-Jan

1H-May

1H-Sep

1H-Jan

1H-May

1H-Sep

1H-Jan

LocalbrandsJVbrandsPremiumbrands

Source:ChinaAutoMarket,monthlypricingdiscountdatabase,Mar112026

Figure3:Averagediscountbyvehicletype

Source:ChinaAutoMarket,monthlypricingdiscountdatabase,Mar112026

Figure5:Averagediscountbysegment

23%

21%

19%

17%

15%

13%

11%

9%

7%

1H-Jan2017

2H-May2017

1H-Oct2017

2H-Feb2018

1H-Jul2018

2H-Nov2018

1H-Apr2019

2H-Aug2019

1H-Jan2020

2H-May2020

1H-Oct2020

2H-Feb2021

1H-Jul2021

2H-Nov2021

1H-Apr2022

2H-Aug2022

1H-Jan2023

2H-May2023

1H-Oct2023

2H-Feb2024

1H-Jul2024

2H-Nov2024

1H-Apr2025

2H-Aug2025

1H-Jan2026

A0ABC

Source:ChinaAutoMarket,monthlypricingdiscountdatabase,Mar112026

Figure2:Averagediscountofdomestic-madeandimportedmodels

24%

22%

20%

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

1H-Jan2017

2H-May2017

1H-Oct2017

2H-Feb2018

1H-Jul2018

2H-Nov2018

1H-Apr2019

2H-Aug2019

1H-Jan2020

2H-May2020

1H-Oct2020

2H-Feb2021

1H-Jul2021

2H-Nov2021

1H-Apr2022

2H-Aug2022

1H-Jan2023

2H-May2023

1H-Oct2023

2H-Feb2024

1H-Jul2024

2H-Nov2024

1H-Apr2025

2H-Aug2025

1H-Jan2026

——Domesticmodels——ImportmodelsAverageofallmodelsSource:ChinaAutoMarket,monthlypricingdiscountdatabase,Mar112026

Figure4:Averagepricediscountsofdomesticbyenergytype

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

1H-Jan2017

2H-May2017

1H-Oct2017

2H-Feb2018

1H-Jul2018

2H-Nov2018

1H-Apr2019

2H-Aug2019

1H-Jan2020

2H-May2020

1H-Oct2020

2H-Feb2021

1H-Jul2021

2H-Nov2021

1H-Apr2022

2H-Aug2022

1H-Jan2023

2H-May2023

1H-Oct2023

2H-Feb2024

1H-Jul2024

2H-Nov2024

1H-Apr2025

2H-Aug2025

1H-Jan2026

BEVPHEVHEVGasoline

Source:ChinaAutoMarket,monthlypricingdiscountdatabase,Mar112026

Figure6:Averagediscountbybrandorigin

Source:ChinaAutoMarket,monthlypricingdiscountdatabase,Mar112026

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AsiaPacificEquityResearch

11March2026

J.PMorgan

ChannelInventory

Figure7:Inventorydays(month)atdealers

Source:CADA(ChinaAutomobileDealersAssociation),Mar112026

Figure9:Inventorydays(month)ofthreekeyGermanbrands

Source:CADA,monthlychannelinventorydatabase,Mar112026

Figure8:Inventorydays(month)bysegment

Source:CADA,monthlychannelinventorydatabase,Mar112026

Figure10:Inventorydays(month)ofkeymass-marketbrands

Source:CADA,monthlychannelinventorydatabase,Mar112026

5

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nick.yc.lai@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

11March2026

J.PMorgan

J.P.MorganChinaAutoSentimentIndex:BottomingoutforthefirsttimesinceNov-25

Figure11:ChinaAutoIndustryWeeklySentimentIndexandMonthlySalesVolume

Source:Companydata,Autohome,GasgooAuto,CarNewsChina,CnEVPost,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex

Figure12:NIOWeeklySentimentIndexandMonthlySalesVolume

Source:Companydata,Autohome,GasgooAuto,CarNewsChina,CnEVPost,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex

6

NickLai

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nick.yc.lai@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

11March2026

J.PMorgan

Figure13:XpengWeeklySentimentIndexandMonthlySalesVolume

Source:Companydata,Autohome,GasgooAuto,CarNewsChina,CnEVPost,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex

Figure14:LeapmotorWeeklySentimentIndexandMonthlySalesVolume

Source:Companydata,Autohome,GasgooAuto,CarNewsChina,CnEVPost,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex

7

NickLai

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nick.yc.lai@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

11March2026

J.PMorgan

Figure15:LiAutoWeeklySentimentIndexandMonthlySalesVolume

Source:Companydata,Autohome,GasgooAuto,CarNewsChina,CnEVPost,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex

Figure16:BYDWeeklySentimentIndexandMonthlySalesVolume

Source:Companydata,Autohome,GasgooAuto,CarNewsChina,CnEVPost,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex

8

NickLai

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AsiaPacificEquityResearch

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J.PMorgan

Figure17:GeelyWeeklySentimentIndexandMonthlySalesVolume

Source:Companydata,Autohome,GasgooAuto,CarNewsChina,CnEVPost,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex

Figure18:GWMWeeklySentimentIndexandMonthlySalesVolume

Source:Companydata,Autohome,GasgooAuto,CarNewsChina,CnEVPost,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex

9

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(65)6801-3176

nick.yc.lai@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

11March2026

J.PMorgan

Figure19:HuaweiWeeklySentimentIndexandMonthlySalesVolume

Source:Companydata,Autohome,GasgooAuto,CarNewsChina,CnEVPost,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex

Figure20:DongfengMotorWeeklySentimentIndexandMonthlySalesVolume

Source:Companydata,Autohome,GasgooAuto,CarNewsChina,CnEVPost,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.MorganChinaAutosSentimentIndex

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CompaniesDiscussedinThisReport(allpricesinthisreportasofmarketcloseon11March2026,unlessotherwiseindicated)

BYDCompanyLimited-A(002594.SZ/Rmb99.22/OW),BYDCompanyLimited-H(1211.HK/HK$98.15/OW),Geely

AutomobileHoldingsLtd.(0175)(0175.HK/HK$17.39/OW),LiAuto(2015.HK/HK$69.85/UW),LiAuto-

ADR(LI/$17.76[10March2026]/UW),NIO(NIO/$5.70[10March2026]/OW),Sinotruk(3808)(3808.HK/HK$38.48/OW),XPeng(XPEV/$18.87[10March2026]/OW),XPeng-H(9868.HK/HK$75.15/OW),ZhejiangLeapmotorTechnology

Co.,Ltd(9863.HK/HK$42.80/OW)

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CoverageUniverse:Lai,NickYC:BAICMotorCorpLTD(1958)(1958.HK),BYDCompanyLimited-A(002594.SZ),BYD

CompanyLimited-H(1211.HK),BrillianceChinaAutomotive(1114)(1114.HK),ChongqingChanganAutomobile-A(000625.SZ),ChongqingChanganAutomobile-B(200625.SZ),DongFengMotorCo.,Ltd.(0489)(0489.HK),GeelyAutomobileHoldingsLtd.

(0175)(0175.HK),GreatWallMotor-A(601633.SS),GreatWallMotor-H(2333.HK),GuangzhouAutomobileGroup-A

(601238.SS),GuangzhouAutomobileGroup-H(2238.HK),LiAuto(2015.HK),LiAuto-ADR(LI),NIO(NIO),SAICMotorCorp-A(600104.SS),Sinotruk(3808)(3808.HK),XPeng(XPEV),XPeng-H(9868.HK),YongdaAuto(3669.HK),ZhejiangLeapmotor

TechnologyCo.,Ltd(9863.HK),ZhongshengGroupHoldings(0881)(0881.HK)

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J.P.MorganGlobalEquityResearchCoverage*

51%

37%

12%

IBclients**

47%

47%

35%

JPMSEquityResearchCoverage*

49%

38%

13%

IBclients**

72%

70%

53%

*Pleasenotethatthepercentagesmaynotaddto100%becauseofrounding.

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Argentina:JPMorganChaseBankN.ASucursalBuenosAiresisregulatedbyBancoCentraldelaRepúblicaArgentina(“BCRA”-CentralBankofArgentina)andComisiónNacionaldeValores(“CNV”-ArgentinianSecuritiesCommission-ALYCyANIntegralN°51).

Australia:J.P.MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimited(“JPMSAL”)(ABN61003245234/AFSLicenceNo:238066)isregulatedbythe

AustralianSecuritiesandInvestmentsCommissionandisaMarketParticipantofASXLimited,aClearingandSettlementParticipantofASXClearPtyLimitedandaClearingParticipantofASXClear(Futures)PtyLimited.ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedinAustraliabyoronbehalfofJPMSALonlyto"wholesaleclients"(asdefinedinsection761GoftheCorporationsAct2001).Alistofallfinancial

productscoveredcanbefoundbyvisiting

/research/disclosures

.J.P.Morganseekstocovercompaniesof

relevancetothedomesticandinternationalinvestorbaseacrossallGlobalIndustryClassificationStandard(GICS)sectors,aswellas

acrossarangeofmarketcapitalisationsizes.Ifapplicable,inthecourseofconductingpublicsideduediligenceonthesubject

company(ies),theResearchAnalystteammayattimesperformsuchdiligencethroughcorporateengagementssuchassitevisits,

discussionswithcompanyrepresentatives,managementpresentations,etc.ResearchissuedbyJPMSALhasbeenpreparedinaccordancewithJ.P.MorganAustralia’sResearchIndependencePolicywhichcanbefoundatthefollowinglink:

J.P.MorganAustralia-Research

IndependencePolicy

.

Brazil:BancoJ.P.MorganS.A.isregulatedbytheComissaodeValoresMobiliarios(CVM)andbytheCentralBankofBrazil.

OmbudsmanJ.P.Morgan0800-7700810(ForHearingImpaired)/

ouvidoria.jp.morgan@

.

Canada:J.P.MorganSecuritiesCanadaInc.isaregisteredinvestmentdealer,regulatedbytheCanadianInvestmentRegulatory

OrganizationandtheOntarioSecuritiesCommissionandistheparticipatingmemberonCanadianexchanges.ThismaterialisdistributedinCanadabyoronbehalfofJ.P.MorganSecuritiesCanadaInc.

Chile:InversionesJ.P.MorganLimitadaisanunregulatedentityin