摩根士丹利-黄金情景分析：冲突后走弱符合预期仍存上行空间但双向风险上升-Scenarios for Gold-20260316

Morganstanley

March16,202605:00PMGMT

RESEARCHIdea

metal&ROCK|Europe

ScenariosforGold

Gold'sweaknesssincethestartoftheconflictisnotunexpected,andhistorysuggestsitcanreboundquicklyaftershocks.

However,ifweseemorepersistentinflationthatdrivesratehikes,theset-upmaybemorechallenging.Wecontinuetoseeupside,buttwo-wayrisksarerising.

KeyTakeaways

Goldisdown5%since27Feb,similartoitsinitialperformanceinpasteconomicshocks/geopoliticalconflictsasitisusedforliquidity.

CentralbankandETFbuyingshouldstillbesupportive,whileastagflationscenariocouldalsobepositiveforgoldrelativetootherassetclasses.

However,iftheFedisnotabletolookthroughrisingoilpricesandweseeapauseincutsorevenhikes,theset-upforgoldmaylookmorechallenging.

GoldhasbeenunderpressuresincethestartoftheMiddleEastconflict:Goldisdown5%sinceFeb27asstrongYTDperformance,astrengtheningUSDandits

highlyliquidcharacteristicshaveoutweighedgeopoliticalrisk-relatedinflows.ThisisnotunusualandwenotesimilarpullbacksinCovid,thestartoftheRussia-UkraineconflictandLiberationday.

Wehavebeenconstructiveongold:Wehavebeenhighlightingour2Hbullcaseof$5700/oz,drivenbyourexpectationsofcontinuedcentralbankbuying,Fedrate

cutssupportingETFinflowsandashiftininvestorinterestinrealassets.

Butrecenteventsbringmoretwo-wayrisks:Whilegeopoliticalriskcanbe

supportiveforgold,itsperformancein2H2022(Exhibit2)showsusthatthisisnotalwaysthecase,especiallyifitdrivesinflationandFedratehikes.Our

US

economists

stillseetwocutsthisyear,assumingtheFedisabletolookthrough

inflation,andwealsonotedifferencesto2022,whenpost-covidrecoveryalso

contributedtoratehikes.However,iftheFeddoesenduponholdforlongeror

evenhiking,historysuggestsETFs,whichareoftentheswinggoldbuyer/seller,

couldliquidatesomeoftheirgoldholdings.Our

FXstrategists

alsoseetwo-way

risksfortheUSD,whichcreatesanuncertainoutlookforgold.Wealsoexplorea

stagflationscenario,whichisusuallypositiveforgoldrelativetootherassets,while

indications

fromthecentralbankofPolandlastweekthattheywouldconsider

more"activemanagement"ofPoland'sgoldreservesraisesquestionsaboutthefuturepurchasepathatthebiggestcentralbankbuyer.

MSOutlook:Wecontinuetohighlightourbullcaseforgoldwithratecutsstill

expectedbyoureconomistsforJuneandSeptember.However,weacknowledgethatrecenteventsandtheirpotentialconsequencesformacroassetsbringmorefocusondownsideriskstoo,andthuswewouldwaittoseehowlongtheconflictlaststotakeastrongerdirectionalview.

MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+

AmyGower(AmySergeant),CFA

CommoditiesStrategist

Amy.Gower1@

+44207677-6937

BenKelson

Analyst

Ben.Kelson@

+44207677-1392

MartijnRats,CFA

EquityAnalystandCommoditiesStrategist

Martijn.Rats@

+44207425-6618

Exhibit1:GoldhasnotactedasasafehavensincethestartoftheMiddleEastconflictbuthadstackedupsignificantgainscomingintoit

PerformanceSinceStartofMiddleEastConflict

Jan25-Feb26SinceendFeb26

BrentCrudeOil

Bitcoin

DXY

US10YTreasury

S&P500

Copper

Gold

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%

Source:Bloomberg

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthis

report.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

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RESEARCH

Idea

ScenariosforGold

Goldhasfallen5%sincethestartoftheMiddleEastconflict:Afteravolatileinitial

reactiontothestartoftheconflict,goldhascomeundermodestpressuresincethen.Incontrast,theUSDhasseengains,withtheDXYrising2.8%,reaffirmingitsstatusasasafehavenasset.

Thisisnotunusual–goldcanpullbackinitiallyduringriskevents:Lookingatrecenteconomic/geopoliticalshocks,weobservethatdespiteitssafehavenstatus,goldcan

postshort-termlossesbeforerecovering,asgold'sliquiditycaninitiallyworkagainstitasinvestorssellpositionstocovermargincallsorreallocatecapital.Golddropped10%intheweekaftertheWHOdeclaredCOVID-19aglobalpandemicin2020,andfell5%theweekafterUSLiberationdaytariffswereannouncedin2025.Bothoccasionssawgold

reboundstronglyoverthesixmonthsthatfollowed.ThestartoftheRussia-Ukraine

conflictalsosawapullbackinthedaythatfollowed,althoughperformanceovertherestoftheyearwasmuted,coincidingwithsuccessiveFedratehikesandareductioninETFholdings,despiteanincreaseincentralbankpurchases.Arguably,gold'sperformancewasmuchstrongerthanexpectedgiventheextentofratehikes.

Exhibit2:Goldtendstosuffershort-termlossesbeforerecoveringduringriskevents.However,postthestartoftheRussia-Ukraineconflict,arapidratehikingcyclefromtheFedheldbackprices.

Goldperformancepostriskevents

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

COVID(2020)Russia-Ukraineconflict(2022)

Liberationday(2025)MiddleEastconflict(2026)

-20-100102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Wehavebeenconstructiveongoldsofar:Thegoldpricehasbecomemoredifficulttoforecastinrecentyearsusingtraditionalmetrics,particularlyrealyields,wherethe

relationshiphasbrokendown.Assuch,forecastinghasbecomemoreabouttryingto

estimate1)thedirection;and2)themagnitude.Inourview,aslongas"demand"isstill

rising,i.e.goldbuyingoutweighsselling,thetrajectoryshouldstillbehigher.However,wehavebeenassumingthemagnitudeshouldbesmallerthan2025(+60%)givenour

expectationthatbothcentralbankandETFbuyingwouldbelowerYoY.Goldiscurrentlytradingbetweenour2Hbasecase($4800/oz)andourbullcase($5700/oz),andmorerecentlywehavebeen

highlightingthatourbullcasei

sinplay.

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RESEARCH

Idea

ButtheeventsintheMiddleEastbringtwo-wayrisks.Inparticular,theirinfluenceontheFedpath(andbyextensionETFbehaviour),theUSD,globalsentiment(particularlystagflationrisks)aswellascentralbankreservemanagementareworthconsidering.

AnychangestotheFedpathcouldimpactgoldsentimentandETFpurchases:Asseenin2022,ageopoliticaleventthatleadstoratehikescanbemorechallengingforgold,

makingtheFedtrajectoryfromhereimportant.Our

USeconomics

teamstillseestwo

25bpFedratecutsthisyear,inJuneandSeptember.TheirrationalehighlightsthattheFedshouldlargelyignoreanyoil-drivenincreaseininflationsincehigherpricestendtoraiseheadline,butcruciallynotcore,inflation.

However,asustainedconflictintheMiddleEastcouldbringfurtherenergypriceincreasesandheightenedinflationrisks–see

TheOilManual:StraitofHormuz:AirPocket.

Persistentlyhighpricesmayraisetheriskthatupwardpressureonheadlineinflationisthenreflectedincoreinflation,whichcouldbeharderfortheFedtooverlook.Our

US

economists

stillnotethat"risingoilpricesamidabove-targetinflationismorelikelytomaketheFeddelaycuts–orcutmorewhenitdoes–thanitwillmovetoratehikes."Wealsonotethatin2022,itwasnotjusttheenergyshockthatdroveratehikes,instead

combiningwithpostpandemicgovernmentstimulus,surgingdemandforgoodsandtightlabourmarkets.

ETFshavebeenthebiggestswingfactoringolddemandinrecentyears,buyingzeroin

2024andthen800tonnesin2025,nearlyasmuchascentralbanks.Withthebreakdowningold'shistoricalrelationshipwithUSrealrates,welooktogoldETFbehaviourinratecutting/hikingcyclesastheswinggoldbuyer/seller(Exhibit3).Ifratecutsmaterialise,wewouldexpectETFholdingstocontinuetorise,albeitataslowerpacethan2025given

elevatedpricelevels.

Onratehikesoramoreprolongedpause,wemayseeETFssellinggold.Thiscouldalsobemeaningfulifdoneinlargequantities.Forexample,in2013,ETFssold881tonnesofgold,drivenbyrisingUSbondyieldsandfearsofa'tapertantrum'withtheFedindicatingthatbondpurchasesmightslow(althoughthiswasnotformallyannounceduntilDecember

2013).Thisundid3yearsofbuyingin12months.

Exhibit3:Ifweseeadditionalratecutsthisyear,ETFbuyingshouldcontinue

Exhibit4:However,ETFssoldsignificantvolumesofgoldin2013,weighingonprices

GoldETFsandFedFundsRate

0

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

GoldETFHoldings(mlnoz)——FedFundsRate(Inverted,RHAxis,%)

3,000

1

2

3

4

5

2,800

2,600

2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

806

2020202120222023202420252026

1,000

GoldvsETFHoldings

ETFHoldings(tonnes)Gold($/oz,RHaxis)

2009201120132015

1,900

1,700

1,500

1,300

1,100

900

700

500

Source:WGC,Bloomberg

Source:Bloomberg

MorganStanleyResearch3

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organstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

Exhibit5:Goldhashistoricallyoftenralliedduringperiodsofstagflation

Source:Bloomberg,WGC,MorganStanleyResearch

Two-wayrisksfortheUSDbringanuncertainoutlookforgold:GoldandtheUSDcanmovetogetherorinoppositedirections,dependingontheunderlyingeconomicbackdrop.Forexample,goldandtheUSDcanrallysimultaneouslyiftheyarebothactingassafe

havens.In2025though,UStariffconcernsweighedontheUSDwhilesupportinggold.

Our

FXstrategists

maintainaneutraloutlookontheUSDtoreflectrisksinboth

directions–furtherescalationcouldseefurtherUSDstrength,whilede-escalationcouldseetheUSDreversemuchofitsgains,withgoldpotentiallyabeneficiaryineither

scenario.

Stagflationfearswouldbeapositiveforgold:Withoiltrading~$100/bbl,concerns

aboutglobalgrowthandstagflationarerising.Asour

economics

teamnotes,"ChicagoFedPresidentGoolsbeesaidrisingenergypricesandapotentialoilshockposestagflation

risks–callingstagflationtheworst-casescenarioforcentralbanks".GoogleTrendssearchdataindicateanaccelerationinsearchesfor"stagflation"inrecentweeks,drivenby

Singapore,HongKongandtheUS.Our

energyteam

notesthatwithaone-monthgasoutageinQatar(theirbasecase),Asianbuyersarelikelytofeelthepainsooner,andwealsoobserverefineryruncutsandfuelconservationmeasuresinthatregion,whiletheimpactforEuropemightcomemoreslowly.

Goldhashistoricallyperformedwellduringperiodsofstagflation,ashighlightedin

Exhibit5whichrunsanalysisfrom1971to2021.Goldcanbesupportedbyelevatedrisks,inflationandlowerrealinterestrates.However,thestrongperformanceisdriven

particularlybythe1970soilshock.

Exhibit6:Searchesfor"stagflation"havebeenrisingagainwithhigheroilpricesandgrowthconcerns

GoogleTrends:"Stagflation"

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24Mar-25Mar-26

Source:GoogleTrends

Exhibit7:Stagflationhashistoricallybeenassociatedwithabove-averagegoldreturns

Source:WGC,chartto2021-see

methodology.

Centralbanksarelikelytocontinuebuyingatelevatedlevels,butweareseeingsomediscussionofmoreactivemanagementofreserves:Abigpartofgold'sstrengthsince2022camefromwhatlookslikeastructuralshiftincentralbankgoldpurchasingactivity,withthepurchaseratemorethandoublingfromthepreviousdecade.However,gold

purchasesalreadystartedtoslowin2025to860tonnesversus>1000tonnesintheprevious3years.Westillviewtheuptickingoldbuyingsince2022asastructuralshiftupwards,buthigherpricesbringrisksoflowerpurchasesordiscussionsofmoreactivemanagement.

Poland:Buyingmoreoractivemanagement?Polandwasthelargestcentralbankbuyerin2025,adding~100tonnesofgold,andrecen

tcomments

fromthecentralbank

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RESEARCH

Idea

governorthatitholds570tonnesimplyanother20tonnessincethen.InmidJanuary,thegovernorsaidthebankwouldaimtoincreasethisto700tonnes.However,sincethen,thegovernoroftheNationalBankofPolandsaidatapressconferencelastweekthatitcouldstartmoreactivemanagementofitsgoldreservestofinancedefencespending.GovernorGlapińskisaidthecountryhasanunrealisedrevaluationgainofPLN197bn(~$53bn)andcouldsellgold,usingtheprofittofunddefencespending.However,sincethen,the

Governortoldreporterson11March"Thereiszerointerest,sowewon'tstart"-(Bloomberg,11March).

Broadeningoutofbuyingelsewhere:However,elsewhere,centralbankgoldbuyingcontinuestowidenout–Brazilbought43tonnesinlate2025,afternopurchasessince2021,whileMalaysiahasboughtitsfirstgoldsince2018.The

BankofKoreai

salso

incorporatingphysicalgoldETFsintoitsforeignreservesportfoliothisquarter,amoreunusualmethodofpurchasinggoldforacentralbank,accordingtotheWorldGold

Council.

PotentialslowingofRussiansales?OneofthefewbankssellinggoldhasbeenRussia,whichsold6tonnesin2025,onlyexceededbySingapore,andafurther9tonnesin

January.However,accordingtoBloomberg(5March2025)purchasesandsalesare

currentlysuspendedwhiletheFinanceMinistrypreparestorevisetheoilpricebenchmarkitusesforitsbudget.AccordingtoBloomberg,theFinanceMinistryplansto"lowerthe

levelthatgovernswhenenergyrevenueissaved–andwhentheNationalWellbeingFundistappedtocovershortfalls".ThismeansextraoilincomewouldgotowardrebuildingtheNationalWellbeingFundinsteadofcoveringongoingspendinggaps.Currently,the

thresholdis$59/bbl,butdiscountsof~$30/bblforRussiancrudeoilhavebeendriving

withdrawalsfromthefund.Thereservefundisbeingdepleted,thearticlenotes,with419billionrublesspentinthefirsttwomonthsof2026andliquidassetsdownbyabout60%sinceearly2022.ArevisionofthethresholdcouldthereforereduceRussiangoldselling.

Tetherstilladding:Ifconsideredalongsidethecentralbanks,Tetherwasthesecond

largestbuyerafterPolandin2025.ThecompanyisbuyinggoldforbothitsUSTcoinanditsgoldcoin,andrecentlyteamedupwith

cryptoplatformBybitf

or"GoldenSeason".Thecompanyisalsobuyinggoldthroughothermethodse.g.Tetherpostedan

EarlyWarning

Reportl

astweekaheadofexceedinga10%ownershipofMetallaRoyaltyandStreaming,whichfocusesongold,silverandcopperstreamingagreements.

Exhibit8:Polandwasthelargestbuyerin2025

2025GoldPurchases(tonnes)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Source:WGC,Tether

Exhibit9:Ithasbecomeincreasinglydifficulttoattributeofficialbuyingtospecificcountries

GoldPurchases(tonnes/year)

1,200

Centralbanks&otherinst.IMFReported

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Source:WGC,IMFreportedcountryholdings

6

organstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

Exhibit10:Gold'scorrelationwiththe

S&P500hasbeeneasingbutitisholdingupwithcopper,suggestinggold'sreal

assetcharacteristicsarealsoimportant

120%

100%

GoldRolling6mCorrelations

Gold:CopperGold:SPX

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

Apr-20Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23Apr-24Apr-25

Source:Bloomberg

Isgoldariskasset?ThroughlateJanuary,goldwasrunningarolling6mcorrelationof~90%withtheS&P500and93%withcopper,implyingastrongercorrelationwithriskassets,ratherthanactingasadiversifier.Inthelasttwomonths,therollingcopper

correlationhasheld,buttheS&Pcorrelationhasweakened,suggestinggold's"realasset"characteristicsarecomingbackintoplay.However,gold'sstrengthoverthepast12

monthsalsoseemstobeworkingagainstit,withweaknessduringtheongoingMiddleEastconflictratherthanstrength.ThechallengewiththecurrentconflictisthatitalsobringsrisksofslowerFedcutsorevenhikes,creatingamoreuncertainoutlookforgold.

MSOutlook:Wecontinuetohighlightourbullcaseof$5700/ozforgoldinto2Hbut

acknowledgetheoutlookisbecomingmoreuncertain.IftheFedisabletolookthroughrisingoilpricesandweseeamoreshort-termdisruption,drivingratecutsandareturntoUSDweakness,wecouldseefurthersupportforgoldsupportedbyETFandcentralbankbuying.Therecentstabilityinpricesmayalsodriveengagementfrompotentialbuyers

whodidnotwanttochasethepricehigher.Amoreprolongedconflictandstagflationscenariocouldalsobesupportiveforgoldrelativetootherassetclasses.However,iftheshippingdisruptionscontinueandmarketconsensusstartstopriceinratehikeson

inflationconcerns,thentheset-upforgoldcouldbemorechallengingintheshortterm.

MorganStanleyResearch7

organstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

WeekinReview

BaseMetals:Basemetalsdroppedacrosstheboardlastweek

amidongoingconflictintheMiddleEastandriskoffpressures.Aluminiumfell0.2%WoW,erodingmidweekgainsafterNorskHydroconfirmedQatalumwillonlycurtail40%oftotal

production.LMEandCOMEXcopperweredown0.6%and0.9%,respectively,onrisingfearsofaglobalgrowthslowdown.Leadperformedtheworst,falling2.3%WoW,whilstnickelwasalsodown1.2%.

Exhibit11:Basemetalspriceindices(12-monthrolling)

150——zinclead——aluminium——nickelcopper 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

PreciousMetals:Preciousmetalswerealsodownacrossthe

board.Goldfell2.9%WoW,duetothemarket'sperceptionthatincreasinginflationarypressureamidongoingconflictinthe

MiddleEastcouldreducetheprobabilityofUSratecuts.TheUSDhasalsostrengthened,withtheDXYrising1.4%WoW,reaffirmingitssafehavenstatus.

Exhibit12:Preciousmetalsindices(12-monthrolling)

390goldsilverplatinumpalladium

340

290

240

190

140

90

40

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Bulks:Ironorepostedfurthergainslastweek,rising6.2%asChinawidenedrestrictionsonBHPcargoes.Thermalcoal

continueditsgains,rising0.7%WoW,amidhigherpricesacrosstheenergycomplex.

Exhibit13:Bulkcommoditypriceindices(12-monthrolling)

150——ironoremet-coal——thermalcoal——alltradedcoals(wtgavg)

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

Source:Platts,Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

8

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RESEARCH

Idea

MorganStanleyPriceForecasts

Exhibit14:SummaryofMorganStanley'scommoditypriceforecasts(seton15December2025)

commoditygroupunit4Q25e1Q26a2Q26e3Q26e4Q26e1Q27e2Q27e3Q27e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e2031eLTrealLTnom.

BaseMetals

LMEAluminium

US$/lb

US$/t

1.27

2,800

1.41

3,100

1.47

3,250

1.36

3,000

1.36

3,000

1.32

2,900

1.32

2,900

1.32

2,900

1.19

2,622

1.40

3,088

1.32

2,900

1.32

2,900

1.32

2,900

1.32

2,900

1.32

2,900

1.13

2,500

1.30

2,871

LMECopper

US$/lb

4.94

5.22

5.53

5.40

5.22

4.90

4.85

4.76

4.49

5.34

4.82

4.57

4.67

4.76

4.76

4.40

5.05

US$/t

10,900

11,500

12,200

11,900

11,500

10,800

10,700

10,500

9,890

11,775

10,625

10,075

10,300

10,500

10,500

9,700

11,141

COMEXCopper

US$/lb

5.14

5.48

5.87

5.67

5.40

5.07

5.02

4.93

4.84

5.60

4.99

4.73

4.81

4.91

4.86

4.49

5.15

US$/t

11,336

12,075

12,932

12,495

11,903

11,178

11,075

10,868

10,660

12,351

10,997

10,428

10,609

10,815

10,710

9,894

11,364

LMENickel

US$/lb

6.76

6.80

7.03

7.03

7.03

7.26

7.26

7.26

6.88

6.97

7.26

7.48

7.71

8.16

8.16

7.44

8.54

US$/t

14,900

15,000

15,500

15,500

15,500

16,000

16,000

16,000

15,167

15,375

16,000

16,500

17,000

18,000

18,000

16,400

18,836

LMEZinc

US$/lb

1.45

1.36

1.32

1.32

1.32

1.32

1.32

1.32

1.30

1.33

1.32

1.32

1.32

1.36

1.36

1.27

1.46

US$/t

3,200

3,000

2,900

2,900

2,900

2,900

2,900

2,900

2,876

2,925

2,900

2,900

2,900

3,000

3,000

2,801

3,217

LMELead

US$/lb

0.90

0.91

0.91

0.91

0.93

0.95

0.95

0.95

0.89

0.91

0.95

1.00

1.01

1.13

1.13

1.02

1.17

US$/t

1,980

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,100

2,100

1,965

2,013

2,100

2,200

2,238

2,500

2,500

2,250

2,584

PreciousMetals

Gold

US$/oz

4,070

4,400

4,500

4,700

4,800

4,700

4,000

3,800

3,416

4,600

4,075

3,650

3,500

3,000

2,836

2,500

2,871

Silver

US$/oz

52.0

56.4

57.7

58.8

58.5

56.6

48.2

47.5

39.3

57.8

50.0

45.6

43.8

37.5

35.5

31.3

35.9

Platinum

US$/oz

1,600

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,800

1,800

1,750

1,261

1,775

1,775

1,710

1,740

1,770

1,764

1,600

1,838

Palladium

US$/oz

1,430

1,400

1,350

1,300

1,250

1,200

1,150

1,100

1,145

1,325

1,125

1,000

1,000

1,100

1,358

1,225

1,407

Bulks

IronOre(fines61%Fe,cfrN.China)

US$/t

106

103

100

95

100

95

95

95

102

100

95

96

100

100

102

90

103

HardCokingCoal(spot,fobAus)

US$/t

194

205

210

210

220

220

200

200

187

211

213

214

215

215

217

191

219

Thermalcoal(spot,fobNewc)

US$/t

108

116

114

116

119

120

120

120

107

116

120

125

130

135

136

120

138

Other

Manganeseore(44%)

US$/mtu

4.6

4.8

4.8

5.0

5.0

5.3

5.4

5.5

4.6

4.9

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.9

5.2

6.0

Alumina(spot,fobAus)

US$/t

320

315

320

350

350

350

350

350

387

334

350

350

350

380

400

380

436

Lithiumcarbonate(spotChina,ex-VAT)

US$/t

10,500

12,500

13,500

15,000

15,000

15,000

15,000

15,000

9,150

14,000

15,000

15,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

14,800

16,998

Cobalt

US$/lb

22.5

25.0

25.0

25.0

25.0

25.0

25.0

25.0

17.3

25.0

25.0

17.5

15.0

15.0

15.9

14.0

16.1

Uranium-spot

US$/lb

80.0

85.0

87.0

90.0

90.0

85.0

80.0

75.0

73.8

88.0

78.8

70.0

66.5

67.8

69.2

61.0

70.1

ExchangeRates

1AUD=USD

0.66

0.69

0.70

0.68

0.67

0.67

0.68

0.68

0.65

0.69

0.68

0.68

0.68

0.67

0.67

0.71

0.70

1USD=BRL

5.37

5.43

5.48

5.55

5.61

5.64

5.66

5.69

5.58

5.52

5.67

5.77

5.87

5.98

6.08

5.65

6.70

1USD=CAD

1.40

1.40

1.39

1.38

1.39

1.39

1.39

1.39

1.40

1.39

1.39

1.28

1.28

1.28

1.28

1.29

1.28

1USD=ZAR

17.25

17.35

17.50

17.87

18.08

18.29

18.54

18.80

17.91

17.70

18.67

19.70

20.73

21.76

22.79

18.00

23.43

1EUR=USD

1.16

1.17

1.17

1.17

1.18

1.18

1.18

1.18

1.13

1.17

1.18

1.19

1.20

1.21

1.22

1.27

1.23

1USD=CNY

7.10

7.05

7.00

7.03

7.05

7.03

7.00

6.98

7.19

7.03

6.99

7.15

7.12

7.01

6.89

7.90

6.92

Source:LME,Bloomberg,Platts,MorganStanleyResearchestimates(e).Note:ExchangerateforecastsaretheassumptionsthatarecompiledandusedbyGlobalResourcesEquityTeam:allpricesarenominal,unlessotherwiseindicated.

MorganStanleyResearch9

organstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

CommodityThermometer

Exhibit15:Metals&MiningCommodityThermometer

CommodityBearishNeutralBullishThesis

Uranium

Contractingactivityisrisingstrongly,withmoretocomein2026,wethink.Spotbuyinghasalsobeensupported,whileproductioncontinuestodisappoint,bringingupsidetoprices,especiallyiftheUStalksm