WPIC2025关税时代下的制胜之道研究报告 SUCCEEDING IN A TIME OF TARIFFS

SUCCEEDINGINATIMEOFTARIFFS

June2025

©2025WPICMarketing+Technologies

TableofContents

03

TheViewfromBeijing:ALetterfromJacobCooke

05

SummaryofLatestU.S.–ChinaTradePolicyDevelopments(2024–2025)

08

OpportunitiesinChinaforNon-AmericanBrands

16

StrategicGuidanceforAmericanBrands

Conclusion

20

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TheViewfrom

Beijing

JacobCooke

CEO,WPICMarketing+Technologies

GreetingsfromBeijing.

AsIwritethis,theenergyonthegroundhereissurprisinglyupbeat.Chineseconsumerconfidencehasbeenontherisein2025,buoyedbygovernmentstimulus.Retailsalesclimbed5.1%inthemonthofApril,andChina’sLabourDayholidayatthebeginningofMaysetrecordhighsinthenumberoftravelersandoverallspend.Themarketisbuzzingwithactivity–especiallyonline.Perhapscontrarytowhattheheadlinesabouttariffsandtensionssuggest,Chineseshoppershaven’tputawaytheirwallets.

ThisrenewedconsumerconfidencehasbeenabrightspotamidtheU.S.–Chinatradewar.Evenasgeopoliticaltensionsescalatedacrossthefirsthalfof2025,China’smassiveconsumerbasehasbeeneageraseverforinternationalgoods.WalkingthroughBeijing’sshoppingdistrictsorscrollingthroughTmall,Iseeforeigncosmetics,fashion,supplements,andbabyproductsflyingoffthe(digital)

shelves.Theappetiteforhigh-quality,importedbrandsisaliveandwell,reinforcedbyayoungergenerationthat’sgloballymindedanddigitallysavvy.

Frommyvantagepoint,thelessonisclear:Chinashouldbeviewedasacriticalgrowthpillarforbrandsworldwide.Yes,globaltradepoliciesareinflux,andyes,doingbusinesshasgottenmorecomplex.ButthefundamentaldemandfromChineseconsumersisstrong.They’reconfident,they’respending,andthey’relookingforthebesttheworldhastooffer.

Inthepagesthatfollow,ourteamatWPICMarketing+TechnologieswillbreakdownwhatthecurrentU.S.–Chinatradespatmeansforglobalbrands.We’llexplorethelatestpolicymovesonbothsides,identifyopportunitiesfornon-U.S.brands,andofferstrategicguidanceforAmericanbrandsnavigatingthesechoppywaters.Thegoalistohelpyoumakeinformeddecisionsinanuncertainlandscape–balancingrisksintheU.S.marketwithgrowthinChinaandbeyond.

Ihopethisreportprovidesvaluableinsightsasyourefineyourglobalstrategy.Despitethechallenges,theopportunitieshereinChinaremainimmenseforthosewillingtoadaptandinnovate.WeatWPICareheretohelpyoucapturethatnextwaveofgrowthintheworld’smostdynamicconsumermarket.

Sincerely,

JacobCooke

CEO,WPICMarketing+Technologies

4

SummaryofLatestUS–ChinaTradePolicyDevelopments

ThetradetensionbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinaescalatedtohistoriclevelsinearly2025,affectingnotonlythesetwoeconomiesbutalsocausingrippleeffectsglobally.ThetablebelowsummarizesthemostrecenttariffandtradepolicyactionsbyboththeU.S.andChina,aswellasU.S.

measurestargetingothertradingpartners.TheframeworkdealreachedinLondononJune11setsU.S.tariffsonChinesegoodsat55%andChinesetariffsonU.S.goodsat10%—butit’snoguaranteethatthisdealholds.Eitherway,globalbrandsshouldnotbankonareturntoapre-trade-warnormal.

DATE

(2024–2025)

U.S.ACTlONSAGAlNST

CHlNA

CHlNA’SRESPONSES

BROADERU.S.TARlFFMOVES

ApriI2025(TradeWarEscaIation)

PresidentDonaldTrumpraisedtariffsonChineseimports–upto125–

145%–effectively

amountingtoatradeembargoonChinese

goods.TheU.S.also

endedthedeminimisduty-freeexemptionforlow-valueimportsfromChina.

Chinaretaliatedswiftly,

imposingtariffsashighas125%onU.S.goods.

Chinaalsorolledout

countermeasuresbeyondtariffs–restrictingexportsofcriticalmineralsand

addingcertainU.S.firmstoan“UnreliableEntity”blacklist.

TheU.S.imposed

sweepingdutieson

dozensofother

countries.KeyalliesandpartnersliketheEU,UK,Canada,andAustraliawerehitwithnewimporttariffs

(e.g.onsteel,

aluminum,andothergoods).

May2025

(Attempts

AtEasing)

Facingmarketturmoil,

U.S.officialsagreedto

hold“ice-breaker”talks

withChinainGeneva.TheU.S.indicatedwillingnesstopauseorrollback

sometariffsifChina

reciprocates(evenU.S.

officialsadmittedthat100%+tariffsare

“equivalentofanembargo”andnotsustainable).

ChinametwithU.S.

negotiatorsandinjectedmonetarystimulusat

hometooffsetthetariffimpacts.However,Beijingalsowarnedother

countriesnottostrikesidedealswiththeU.S.

thatharmChina’s

interests,vowing“resolutecountermeasures”ifthathappens.

TheU.S.signaled

reliefforallies:a90-daytariffpausewasimplementedfor

somecountries

(excludingChina).Nonetheless,globalsupplychains

remainedonedge.

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DATE

(2024–2025)

U.S.ACTIONSAGAINST

CHINA

CHINA’SRESPONSES

BROADERU.S.TARIFFMOVES

May12,2025(90-

dayTariffTruce)

AfterU.S.-ChinameetingsinGeneva,theU.S.

announceda90-day

suspensionofselect

tariffsonChinesegoodsasagoodwillmeasuretode-escalatetensionsandstabilizemarkets.

Reciprocallyagreedto

reduceorpausecertaintariffsonU.S.importsforthesame90-dayperiod,offeringtemporaryrelieftoimportersand

signalingawillingnesstonegotiatefurther.

OnMay28,aU.S.

tradecourtruledtoblockmanyof

Trump’stariffs—butahigherfederal

appealspausedtheruling,keepingtariffsinplace.Appealsandlegaljockeyingcouldcontinue.

June11,2025

AfterweeksoftensionsfollowingGeneva,U.S.andChinesenegotiatorsmetinLondonand

reacheda“frameworkdeal”.TheU.S.willkeep~55%tariffsonChinesegoods,whileagreeingtoeasesomeexport

controls.Dealspecificsandimplementationareunclear.

UndertheLondon

frameworkdeal,Chinawillmaintain10%tariffson

U.S.goodsandresumerare-earthexportsforsixmonths;tradeteamstoworktoward

implementingGenevatruce.

TheU.S.hasindicateditwilllikelyextendthe90-dayreprieveon

highertariffsfor

certainkeytradingpartnersamid

negotiations,butimportstotheU.S.

faceabaseline10%tariff.

WhyThisDe-EscalationMayNotChangeMuch

EvenundertheframeworkdealagreedtoinLondononJune11,tariffsaremuchhigherthanin2024andwedonotexpectareversal.Companiesshouldalsobraceforfurtheruncertainty.U.S.tariffratesonChinaandothertradingpartnersmightseesawwithpoliticalnegotiationsanddomesticU.S.developments—legalappeals

couldcontinueuptotheSupremeCourt—butthefundamentalriskofsuddenpolicyshiftsremainshigh.Ourrecommendationsthereforeassumethatunpredictabilitywillpersist.Planyourbusinessasiftariffsandtensionswillbeongoingfactors.

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7

OpportunitiesinChinaforNon-AmericanBrands

WhileAmericanfirmsfindthemselvesinthecrossfireofthetradewar,brandsfromothercountrieshaveauniquewindowofopportunity.ThevolatilityoftheU.S.–ChinarelationshipandbroaderU.S.tariffactionsmakeacompellingcaseforbrandstodiversifyawayfromtheAmericanmarket—whichmanyWesternbrandsconsidertobetheirtopmarket.

Here’swhynon-U.S.brandsshouldleanin:

1.U.S.MarketRisksAreRising

TheUnitedStateshasshownawillingnesstolevytariffsevenonclosepartnersinpursuitofitstradegoals.Washington’saggressiveuseoftariffsmeansEuropean,Canadian,

Australian,andotherexporterscannolongerassumestableaccesstotheU.S.market.Ifyourbrand’sfortunesareheavilytiedtoU.S.sales,diversifyingisnowessentialriskmanagement.

2.China’sMarketSizeinKey

SectorsRival–orSurpass–theU.S.

Our

Q12025Chinae-commercedatareport

showsjusthowenormousChina’sconsumermarketiscomparedtotheU.S.,drivinghugerevenuenumbersacrossmanycategories.Non-Americanbrandscantapintothisgrowthengine.

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Forcontext,considerthefollowingcomparisons:

Beauty&PersonalCare

China’sonlinebeautymarketreached$81.0Bin2024afterresuminggrowth,notfarofffromtheentireU.S.beautymarket(~$100Bannually)insize.Douyin(China’sTikTok)hasevensurpassedTmallasthetopplatformforbeautysales,indicatinghugesocialcommercepotential.Inshort,Chineseconsumersarespendingcomparableamountsonskincare,cosmeticsandluxurybeautyasAmericans,andthey’reincreasinglybuyingfromnewdigitallynativebrandstoutedbyinfluencers.Thisisfertilegroundforforeignbeautybrands–especiallythosefromEurope,Japan,Korea,etc.,whoaren’tcaughtinthetariffcrossfire.

-9%+29%

$11.0B$10.0B$12.9B

ChinaBeautyE-commerceMarketTrend

TmallDouyinJD

+37%+11%

$22.8B

$31.3B

-19%

-10%

$45.7B

$36.8B

$34.8B

$33.3B

202220232024

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Fashion&Apparel

China’sfashione-commercesalesboomedto$280.8Bin2024,growing36%year-on-year.Thisnumberisstaggering–it’sroughlydoublethesizeoftheU.S.onlinefashionmarket(estimatedaround$140–150B).Evenaccountingforofflineretail,ChinaisontracktoovertaketheU.S.astheworld’slargestapparelmarket.Fornon-U.S.apparelbrands(e.g.,Europeanluxuryhouses,fastfashionretailers,sportswearbrands,etc.),theChineseconsumerbaseissimplytoolargeandlucrativetoignore.Demandissurgingnotjustforluxury,butalsofornicheandfunctionalfashion(e.g.,outdoorapparel,athleisure)wherenewentrantscanfindeageraudiences.

+36%

35%

25%

15%

5%

0%

5%

-1%

ChinaFashionE-commerceMarketSize

$300B

$250B

$200B

$150B

$100B

$50B

$0B

202220232024

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HealthSupplements&Wellness

China’ssupplementsmarketcontinuesitssteadyrise.In2024,China’sonlinesalesofvitaminsanddietarysupplementshit$17.6B.WhiletheU.S.supplementmarketislarger(~$55–60Bincludingofflinechannels),China’sgrowthisoutpacingtheWestashealthconsciousnessincreases.Weseedouble-digitspikesincategorieslikefishoil,vitaminB,anddigestiveaidsinChina.Notably,Chineseconsumersoftenpreferforeign-madesupplements(forqualityandsafetyreputation),whichisagoldenopportunityforCanadian,Australian,EuropeanandAsiannutraceuticalbrands.

$20B

$18B

$16B

$14B

$12B

$10B

$8B

$6B

$4B

$2B

$0B

ChinaSupplementsE-commerceMarketSize

+6%

+25%

0%

202220232024

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PetCareProducts

China’spetownershipisskyrocketing,fuelingapremiumpetcareboom.OnlinepetproductsalesinChinareached$11.2Bin2024,growingdespiteoveralleconomicheadwinds.WhileAmericansstillspendmoreoverall(~$148Bonthepetindustryin2024),Chinesepetparentsarerapidlyincreasingtheirspendingonpremiumfood,petvitamins,andgroomingsupplies.Importantly,thisisanareawhereU.S.brandshavehistoricallybeenstrong(petfoodgiants,etc.),butwithtariffsmakingU.S.goodspricey,European,Canadian,andAustraliandirect-to-consumerpetproductbrandscanstepin.

$11.4B

5%

4%

3%

3%

2%

1%

0%

$11.2B

$11.0B

$10.8B

$10.6B

$10.4B

$10.2B

ChinaPetCareE-commerceMarketSize

+4%

+2%

202220232024

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Mother,Baby&Maternity

DespiteChina’sdecliningbirthrates,themother&babyproductsectorsurgedto$26Binonlinesalesin2024(+16%YoY).Chineseparentsarespendingmoreonpremiuminfantformula,babycare,andeducationalproductsforeachchild.TheU.S.babyproductsmarket,forcomparison,isabout$87Bincludingallchannels–largerinabsoluteterms,but(justlikethehealthandwellnesscategory)relativelymaturewithslowergrowth.Non-Americanbrands,particularlyfromEurope,Australia,andNewZealand(whichareknownforhigh-qualitybabyformula,foods,andgear),haveastrongopportunityinChina.Infact,duringpasttradetensions(startinginthefirstTrumppresidency),ChinesebuyersalreadystartedshiftingtowardsAustralianandEuropeaninfantformulawhenU.S.brandswerelessavailable.Now,withtariffsinplay,thattiltcouldaccelerate.

+2%

$27.0B

$26.0B

$25.0B

$24.0B

$23.0B

$22.0B

$21.0B

$20.0B

$19.0B

ChinaMother&BabyE-commerceMarketSize

18%

+16%

16%

8%

202220232024

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3.ChinaisCourtingNewTradePartners

RecentpublicstatementsbyChina’sMinistryofCommercemakeitclearthatBeijing“willfirmlyopposeanydealatChina’sexpense”andis“willingtostrengthensolidaritywithallparties”thatmaintainfairtrade.Inpracticalterms,ChinahasbeenresolvingdisputesandresumingimportsfromcountrieslikeAustralia(e.g.,removingan80%tariffonAustralianbarleyin2023),andexpandingimportsfromEurope,ASEAN,AfricaandLatinAmerica.

Fornon-Americanbrands,thismeansyoumayfindregulatorydoorsopeningwiderinChina:fasterapprovalsforproducts,favorableimportdutyreductions,andinclusioninpromotionalprograms(likeimportexposande-commerceshoppingfestivalsthathighlightgoodsfrom“friendly”nations).Moreover,Chinacontinuestoexpandcross-bordere-commercechannelsforforeignbrandstoselltoChineseconsumers.Inshort,China’spoliciesanddiplomaticstancearecreatingarelativelyhospitableenvironmentforbrandsfromcountriesotherthantheU.S.

4.WhiteSpaceLeftbyU.S.

BrandsRetreating

EverytarifforsanctionthathitsaU.S.companyinChinacreatesanopportunityforsomeoneelse.IfAmericanbrandsscalebackinvestmentinChinaduetotariffs–forexample,cuttingmarketingbudgets,delayingnewstoreopenings,orhesitatingtolocalizenewproducts–theirabsenceleavesagapinconsumerattention.Nimbleinternationalcompetitorscanseizethiswhitespace.Considercategoriessuchassupplements,beauty,fashion,orfood

products:alullbybigU.S.names(whetherduetotariffs,compliancechallenges,orpublicsentiment)canbefilledbyEuropean,CanadianandAustralianbrandsofferingcomparablequality.We’vealreadywitnessedthisinsomesectors.Forinstance,afterpunitivetariffsandpoliticalfrictionscurtailedU.S.agriculturalexports,Brazilian,Canadian,andEuropeanexporterscapturedthatmarketshareinChina.Thesamecanhappenattheconsumerbrandlevel–Chineseretailersandplatformswillquicklyseekalternativesifaonce-popularU.S.brandbecomeshardertostockorifitspricinggoesupduetotariffs.Non-U.S.companiesshouldbereadytostepinwiththerightpartnershipsanddistributionwhenthosemomentsarise.

Conclusion

Insummary,forbrandsfromoutsidetheUnitedStates,thecurrentclimatepresentsachancetodoubledownonChinaandotherhigh-growthmarkets.DiversifyingyourglobalfootprintnowwillnotonlymitigateU.S.traderisksbutalsopositionyourbrandinfrontoftheworld’smostdynamicconsumeraudiences.Companiesthatactdecisively–reallocatingresourcestoAsia,adaptingproductstolocaltastes,andcapitalizingonthegoodwillextendedbyChinesepolicymakers–cancapturesignificantupsideinthisrealignmentofglobaltrade.ThekeyistomovestrategicallyandswiftlywhileU.S.rivalsareentangledintarifftroubles.

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15

StrategicGuidanceforAmericanBrands

ForU.S.-headquarteredbrands,thelandscapeisadmittedlychallenging–butnotwithoutworkaroundsandsilverlinings.UndertheframeworkdealreachedinLondon,mostU.S.brandswillfacea55%tariffonimportingChina-sourcedgoodsorpartsintotheU.S.,anda10%tariffonsellingintoChina.AmericancompanieshavespentdecadesbuildingbrandequityinChina,andthecurrenttradewarthreatenstoerodesomeofthat.However,withtherightstrategies,U.S.brandscanweatherthetariffstormandfindgrowth–bothinChinaandthebroaderAsia-Pacificregion.

Belowweoutlineourguidance:

1.LeverageCross-BorderE-Commerce(CBEC)toBypassTariffs

Onecriticalfactoftenoverlookedindoom-and-gloomtradewartalkisthatChina’stariffsonU.S.goodsapplytotraditionalimports,notpersonalconsumerpurchasesviacross-bordere-commerce.Inotherwords,ifyouselltoChineseconsumersthroughonlineCBECchannels(suchasTmallGlobal,JDWorldwide,DouyinE-CommerceGlobal),thosesalesdonotincurthepunitivecustomstariffsthatstandardimportsdo.Sectorslikebeauty,nutraceuticals(supplements),petfood,andmother-babyproductsfallsquarelyinthissweetspot–theyarepopularincross-bordere-commerceandtypicallywithinpersonalimportlimits.Forexample,aU.S.vitaminbrandorskincarelinecanbeshipped

directlytoChineseconsumersorstockedinabondedwarehouseinChinaforonlinesale,avoidingtheimportdutiesthatwouldapplyifthesameproductswerebulk-importedbyadistributor.

Thebottomline:Americanbrandsneedtooptimizetheirchannelstrategy.Embracecross-bordere-commerceretailwhichremainsaviable,tariff-free(ortariff-light)routetotheChinesecustomer,onelargelyinsulatedfromthetradewar’stariffs.Asanaddedbenefit,CBECalsooftenrequireslessregulatoryredtapeforproductapprovalsinChinaincategorieslikecosmeticsandfoods,sincetheyaretreatedaspersonaluseimports.

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2.MonitorandGuardYour

Brand’sChinaPresence–GapsWillBeFilled

IfyourbrandreducesinvestmentinChinesemarketingduetocost-cuttingoruncertainty,beawarethatcompetitors(fromEurope,Asia,ordomesticChinesebrands)willhappilyfillthevoid.Chineseconsumershaveplentyofoptions;andloyaltycanbeupforgrabsifyougoquiet.Thus,evenintoughtimes,maintainatleastabaselineofengagement:keepyourTmallflagshipstoreassortmentfresh,continueinteractionsonsocialplatformslikeWeibo,WeChat,andXiaohongshu,andsupportyourlocalpartners.

Considerthisparadox:someU.S.consumerbrandsmightdecideto“waitout”thetradewarbypausingnewinitiativesinChina–butifthewardragsonforyears,that’slostmomentuminacompetitivemarketthat’shardtoregain.Asourdatashows,coreconsumerdemandinChina(forbeauty,fashion,wellness,etc.)isstillgrowing–ifAmericanbrandspullback,someoneelse(i.e.,yourcompetitors)willsatisfythatdemand.Don’tletyearsofbrand-buildinginChinagotowaste.

3.OptimizeSupplyChainsandPricingtoOffsetTariffCosts

AnotherstrategyforU.S.brandsismoreoperational–findingwaystopreventthetariffsfrombloatingretailpricesinChina.Thiscouldinvolvere-routingyoursupplychain.Forinstance,ifyoumanufactureproductsintheU.S.andthosegoodsnowfacea10%tariffenteringChina,canyoushiftsomeproductiontoanothercountrynotsubjecttotariffs?Manycompaniesareexploring“ChinaforChina”manufacturing–producinginsideChinaforthelocalmarkettoavoidimportduties.

Additionally,adjustyourpricingstrategytobeagile.Wherepossible,usepromotions,bundledeals,orsmallerpackagesizestokeepChineseconsumerpricepointsattractivedespitetariffs.SomeU.S.brandshavequietlyabsorbedpartofthetariffcostintheirmarginstostaycompetitiveinChina.Whilenotidealforprofitability,consideritashort-termmarketinginvestment–thecostofmaintainingmarketshareuntiltariffshopefullyreduce.Eachcompany’stolerancewilldiffer,butit’sastrategiccalculation:loseabitonmarginnowtoretaincustomers,versusrisklosingthemarketentirelyandhavingtore-enterlateratgreatexpense.

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4.UseAsia-BasedInventorytoServeOtherMarkets

OnecreativetacticwerecommendforAmericanbrandsstrugglingwithexcessinventoryorslowsalesinChinaistorepurposethatstocktootherAsia-Pacificmarketsthatdon’thavetariffsagainstU.S.goods.TheAsiaregionbeyondChinaisexperiencingitsownconsumptionboom–SoutheastAsia,forexample,hasarisingmiddleclassandvibrante-commercescene.

IfyouhaveproductalreadyinAsia(perhapssittinginabondedwarehouse)thathasbecomelesscompetitiveduetotariffs,youmightbeabletoexport/re-exportittonearbymarkets.Forinstance,outdoorsportinggoodsorpremiumhealthsupplementsthataren’tmovinginChinacouldbeveryattractiveinmarketslikeVietnam,Indonesia,orSouthKoreawhereU.S.productsaren’tfacingspecialtariffs.HongKongandSingaporeareotherfree-tradehubsthatcanserveasredistributionpoints.Bydoingthis,youminimizewrite-offsandcapitalizeondemandintariff-freemarkets.Logistically,abondedwarehouseinChina’sfreetradezonecouldre-routegoodswithoutincurringChineseimporttax.

Thekeyistobeflexible:Asia-Pacificisnotonemonolithicmarket,butatapestryofmanymarkets.Ifonedoorispartlyclosed(Chinageneraltrade),findanotheropendoor(Chinacross-bordere-com,orotherAsiancountries).Thisway,yourregionalinventorycanbeoptimized.Asabonus,yourbrandgainspresenceinmultiplemarkets,aligningwiththediversificationprinciple.CompaniesthattakeanAsia-wideviewwillfarebetterthanthosefixatedonlyonChinaoronlyontheU.S.

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5.StayAlerttoPolicyChanges

(andBeReadytoAct)

Finally,AmericanbrandsmustkeepaclosewatchonpolicyupdatesfrombothWashingtonandBeijing.Thesituationisfluid,evenaftertheLondonframeworkd