汇丰-中国十五五规划：高质量增长的三大支柱-China's15thFYP：Threepillarsforhigh-qualitygrowth-20260318

HSBCGicbanvestmentResearch18March2026

Economics

China

China’s15thFYP

Threepillarsforhigh-qualitygrowth

uChina’s15thFYPcentresonindustrialmodernisation,a

strongdomesticmarket,andopeninguptheeconomyfurther

uIndustrialmodernisationaimsatbeingnotonly‘big’butalso‘strong’,viainnovation,digitalisation,greentransformation

uDomesticdemandsettobecomeprimarygrowthdriver,whileChinaaimstobalancetradeandliftoverseasinvestments

Chinareleasedfulldetailsofits15thFive-YearPlan(2026–30)on13MarchafterthecloseoftheNationalPeople’sCongress.China’seconomicandsocialblueprintfor

thenextfiveyearscentresaroundthreepillarsheldtogetherbyareformagendathatblendsaneffectivemarket,aproactivegovernmentandsecurity.

Pillar1–Industrialmodernisation.Chinaisfocusedonboostingproductivity

throughtechnologicalbreakthroughsthatdriveindustrialmodernisation.HeightenedexternaluncertaintieshaveboostedChina’sresolvetoremaingloballycompetitive.

Theplanprioritisesupgradingtraditionalindustriesviahigh-techindustrialisation,

digitalisation,andgreentransformation,whileintroducingpolicymeasurestoaddress“involutionarycompetition”andfacilitatetheorderlyexitofoutdatedcapacity.

Example:Scalingup“futureindustries”likechips,humanoidrobots,greenhydrogen.

Pillar2–Strongdomesticmarkettobecometheprimarygrowthengine.Theplanincludesmeasurestoboosthouseholdspendingcapacitythroughjobcreation,

incomegrowth,andastrongersocialsafetynet.Serviceconsumptionisexplicitly

prioritised,alongsideguidanceforgoodsconsumptiontowardsmarter,greener,andhigher-qualityproducts.Investmentpolicyshiftstoward“effectiveinvestment”,withagreaterfocusonqualityandefficiencyandanexpandedscopethatincludes

“investinginpeople”(humancapital,healthcare,education,andskills).Buildingaunifiednationalmarketisacentralpriority,aimingtodismantlelocalprotectionismandmarketsegmentationthroughunifiedrulesandstrongerIPprotection.

Example:Moreservicesconsumptioninareaslikehealthcareandelderlycare.

Pillar3–High-levelopeninguptoaccelerate,withamorerule-based,services-led,andbalancedapproach.Theplanemphasisestwo-waytradeandinvestmentflows,byencouragingmoreimportsofagriculturalproducts,high-qualitygoodsand

services,andadvancedtechnology.ItalsosupportsbothinboundFDI–viaashorternegativelist,improvednationaltreatment,andencouragementforregionalHQsandR&Dcentres–andoutboundODItolocaliseproduction,whichcaneasetrade

frictions,andcreatejobsandinvestmentinpartnereconomies.

Example:Moreimports,attractingFDI,andsupportingoutboundinvestments.

Reformispositionedasthe“glue”linkingthethreepillars.MeasurestostrengthenSOE

governance,improvingprotectionandaccessfortheprivatesector,andenhancingruleoflawshouldallsupportconfidence,productivity,andsustainableresilientgrowth.

JingLiu

ChiefEconomist,GreaterChina

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

jing.econ.liu@.hk

+85239410063

TaylorWang

Economist,China

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

taylor.t.l.wang@.hk

+85222888650

ErinXin

SeniorEconomist,GreaterChina

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

erin.y.xin@.hk

+85229966975

HeidiLi

Associate

Guangzhou

HSBCGlobalInvestmentSummit

14to16April2026

Findoutmore

Disclosures&Disclaimer

ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.

Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:

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Growthblueprint:2026-30

uChina’seconomicandsocialdevelopmentblueprinthingesonthreeinterconnectedpillars,gluedtogetherbyreforms

uIndustrialmodernisationfocusesonbeing“strong”,whileinnovationisnolongerjusteyeing‘metoo’or‘mebetter’,butalso‘firstinclass’

uDomesticdemandispoisedtodrivegrowth,whileChina’svastmarketwillcreatenewopportunitiesfortradingpartners

China’s15thFYPOutlinewasapprovedon12MarchatthecloseoftheNationalPeople’sCongress,markingapivotalsteptowardsthecountry’s2035modernisationambitions.

Spanning18chaptersandover100pages,theOutlineaddressesabroadspectrumof

interconnectedeconomicandsocialpriorities.Centraltotheeconomicstrategyarethree

mutuallyreinforcingpillars:industrialmodernisation;astrongdomesticmarket;andhigh-level

openingup(seeAppendixA2forhowtheorderofprioritieshasshiftedbetweenthetwoFYPs).Thesepillarsareanchoredbyacomprehensivereformagendadesignedtoblendaneffectivemarketwithaproactivegovernment,andtobalancedevelopmentwithsecurity(Chart1).

Comparedwiththesuggestedoutline(releasedinOctober),therearemorespecificationsonsupportingAIdevelopment,enterprise-ledinnovation,andmarket-basedresourceallocation(AppendixA1).Inthisreport,weunpackChina’seconomicroadmapforthenextfiveyears,highlightingbothopportunitiesandchallenges.

Chart1:KeyeconomicdevelopmentgoalsofChina’s15thFive-YearPlan

DeepeningReform

soundmacrogovernance•reformSOEs&strengthenprivatesector•market-basedfactorallocation•faircompetition

Regionaldevelopment:nationalstrategies•spatialgovernance•balancedregionalgrowth•cross-regionalconnectivity&

cooperation•people-centredurbanisation

Ruralrevitalization

modernagriculture•improvedruralliving•povertyalleviation•ruralindustry•infrastructure•governance

IndustrialmodernizationAstrongdomesticmarketHigh-levelopening-up

Livelihood&commonprosperity

Jobs+skills•incomedistributionSocialsecurity•housing/publicservices

DigitalChina&“AI+”

computing•digitalempowerment•ecosystem

CombineeffectivemarketandproactivegovernmentCoordinatedevelopmentandsecurity

Techself-reliance&innovation

coretech•enterprise-led•talent

BRI:hard,soft,peopleconnectivity

Growemerging&futureindustries

Linklivelihoodwithconsumption

Moderniseinfrastructuresystem

Upgradetraditionalindustries

Increaseeffectiveinvestment

Boostdomesticconsumption

Globaleconomicgovernance

Tradeandinvestmentties

Aunifiednationalmarket

Aligningrules,standards

Servicesupgrade

Source:NationalPeople’sCongress,HSBC.

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ThenewFYP:keytargets

The15thFYPoutlinesasetofeconomicandsocialdevelopmenttargetsfor2026-30,designedtolaythefoundationforChina’s2035visionofsocialistmodernisationthataimsfora

substantialboostinoverallnationalstrengthandpercapitaGDPreachingmoderately

developedcountrylevels.Thisimpliesaminimumaverageannualgrowthrateofc4.2%,

accordingtotheofficialcalculations(see100Q&Asontheproposed15thFYP,publishedbyStudyPress,October2025).

Table1.Keytargetsfor15thFYP

CategoryIndicator20252030targetAnnual/CumulativeAttribute

Economicgrowth

1.GDPgrowth(%)

5

—

Maintainwithinareasonablerange,proposedannuallyasappropriate

Expected

2.Growthoflabourproductivity(%)

6.1

—

HigherthanGDPgrowth

Expected

3.Urbanisationrateofpermanentresidents(%)

67.9

71

—

Expected

Innovation

4.GrowthoftotalR&Dexpenditure(%)

9.1

—

>7

Expected

5.Numberofhigh-valueinventionpatentsper10,000people

16

>22

—

Expected

6.Valueaddedofcoredigitaleconomyindustriesas%ofGDP

10.5*

12.5

—

Expected

Livelihood

7.Urbansurveyedunemploymentrate(%)

5.2

—

<5.5

Expected

8.GrowthofpercapitadisposableIncome(%)

5

—

InlinewithGDPgrowth

Expected

9.Averageyearsofschoolingforworking-agepopulation

11.3

11.7

—

Restrictive

10.Numberofmedicalpersonnelper1,000population(physicians/nurses)

3.1/4.3

3.7/5.1

—

Expected

11.Proportionofnursingbedsinelderlycareinstitutions(%)

68

73

—

Expected

12.Increaseinenrolmentratefor

childrenunderthreeinchildcare(%)

—

—

[

6

]

Expected

13.Lifeexpectancy(years)

79.25

80

—

Expected

Green&lowcarbon

14.ReductioninCO₂emissionsperunitofGDP(%)

[17.7]

—

[

17

]

Restrictive

15.Proportionofnon-fossilenergyintotalenergyconsumption(%)

21.7

25

—

Restrictive

16.PM2.5concentrationincitiesatprefecturelevelandabove(μg/m³)

28

<27

—

Restrictive

17.Proportionofgoodqualitywaterbodies(%)

80

85

—

Restrictive

18.Forestcoveragerate(%)

25.1*

25.8

—

Restrictive

Security

19.Comprehensivegrainproductioncapacity(trillionjin)

1.39

Around1.45

—

Restrictive

20.Comprehensiveenergyproductioncapacity(100milliontonsofstandardcoal)

51.3

58

—

Restrictive

Note:[]indicatesa5-yearcumulativefigure;*indicates2024data;growthoftotalR&Dexpenditureiscalculatedatconstantprices;comprehensivegrainproductioncapacityreferstothestableachievableoutputcapacity.

Source:NPC,Xinhua,HSBC.

Pillar1–Industrialmodernisationmeansadvancedmanufacturing

The15thFYPplacestherealeconomy–especiallyadvancedmanufacturing–attheheartofChina’smodernisationdrive.Thisisadirectresponsetobothexternaluncertaintiesandtheneedforhigherquality,sustainablegrowth.

ThisFYPcommitsto“maintainingareasonableshareofmanufacturing,”asubtleshiftfromthe14thFYP’slanguageofkeepingthemanufacturingshareofGDP“basicallystable”.This

adjustmentsignalsapragmaticapproach,especiallyasChina’soutbounddirectinvestmentissettoriseamidgrowingtensionswithtradingpartners.Notably,boththe14thand15thFYPs

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differfromthe12thand13th,whichexplicitlytargetedahigherservicesshareofGDP.The

recentplansaremorecautiousaboutprematuredeindustrialisationandtherisksof‘industrialhollowingout’.Accordingtotheofficial100Q&Asontheproposed15thFYP,thereisan

emphasisonoptimisingtheindustriallayoutofcoreindustriesdomesticallyacrossregionsandsafeguardingtheintegrityofChina’sindustrialsystem.TheunderlyingrationaleistokeepthetechnologicalbackboneofChineseindustryanchoredathome,evenascapacityandcapital

increasinglymoveabroadwiththeglobalexpansionofChineseenterprises.

Chart2:ManufacturingshareofGDPdroppedinearly2010sthenstabilised

ShareofGDP,%

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

20042007201020132016201920222025

ManufacturingServices

Source:Wind,HSBC

Chart3:China’smanufacturingoutputhasbeenno.1globallyfor16consecutiveyears

Shareofglobalmanufacturingoutput,%

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2004200720102013201620192022

ChinaUSJapanGermany

Source:Wind,HSBC

Upgradetraditionalindustries

Theemphasisisonadvancinghigh-techindustrialisation,digitalisation,andthegreen

transformationoftraditionalindustries.Notably,theOutlineadvocatesmarket-drivenmergers,acquisitions,andrestructuringtoenabletheorderlyexitofobsoletecapacity.Italsointroducesasuiteofpolicytools,suchasplanningguidance,capacitycontrols,priceregulation,and

industryself-regulation,totackle“involutionarycompetition”.

Growemergingandfutureindustries

AcentralthemeinChina’smanufacturingstrategyisthetransformationfrombeing“big”to

becoming“strong.”Thekeytothisevolutionliesinsecuringtruecompetitiveness–notjust

throughscale,butthroughinnovationandquality.Inthepast,China’smanufacturingsectorwasoftencharacterisedbyimitationandincrementalimprovement,ie,“metoo”and“mebetter.”

However,the15thFYPsignalsChina’sambitiontobecome“firstinclass”inemergingandfutureindustries.Thismeansleadinginoriginalinnovation,settingglobalstandards,anddeveloping

coretechnologiesthatdefinethenextgenerationofindustries.Thiswouldmarkacriticalstep

forChinatomoveupthevaluechain,fosternewgrowthdrivers,andtransformits

manufacturingsectortobecomegloballycompetitiveinbothcapabilityandinfluence(seeTable2forkeytargetsforemergingandfutureindustriesforthenextfiveyears).

Serviceupgrade

TheOutlineprioritisesupgradingtheservicesectortodrivequalitygrowthandjobcreation,

especiallyasmanufacturingbecomesmoreautomatedandAGIadvancesrapidly.Theplan

targetsbothproducerandconsumerservices:1)movingproducerservicesupthevaluechain–suchasR&D,design,andlogistics–supportsindustrialupgradingandcapturesthehigher

value-addedpre-andpost-productionphasesasChineseenterprisesgoglobalin‘production’;

2)ontheconsumerside,expandinghigh-quality,diverseservicesinareaslikehealthcare,elderlycare,anddigitalservicesiskeytounlockinghouseholdconsumption,whichremainsbelowthatofdevelopedeconomiesdueinparttolimitedservicesupply(seethesectionon

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“Boostingdomesticconsumption”andChart5fordetails).Agradualopeningoftheservice

sectorandregulatoryreformstoattractinternationalplayersandencourageinnovationarealsocentraltothisupgrade.

Table2.Keytargetsforemergingandfutureindustries

SectorKeytargets

Integratedcircuits

Enhancematureandadvancedmanufacturingprocesses,developkeyequipmentandmaterials,andpursuebreakthroughsinultrawide-bandgapsemis(highvoltage)andintegrated

technologies.

Embodiedintelligence

Developtrainingandsimulationplatforms,integratedmodelsandalgorithms,andaccelerateupgradesandapplicationsofhumanoidrobotsandrelatedproducts.

Biomanufacturing

Achievebreakthroughsinenzymepreparations,intelligentbreeding,andbioprocessing;promoteinnovationinbiomedicine,bioenergy,andrelatedfields.

New-typebatteries

Focusonhigh-capacitymaterials,advancedmanufacturingequipment,andexpandapplicationsinsmartdevices,energystorage,andelectricvehicles.

Commercialspace

Advancetechnologiesforreusablelaunchvehicles,lightweightstructures,andenhancelarge-scaleproductionandlaunchcapabilities.

Domesticlargeaircraft

Increaseproductioncapacity,developnewmodelsandengines,andpromoteresearchandapplicationofnewenergyaircraft.

Low-altitudeequipment

Developheavy-loaddrones,verticaltake-offandlandingaircraft,andrelatedintelligentflightandsafetytechnologies.

Greenhydrogenenergy

Improverenewableenergy-basedhydrogenproduction,storage,andtransportation;expandapplicationsintransport,power,andindustry.

Brain-computerinterface

Advancecorehardware,signalprocessingalgorithms,andpromoteapplicationsinhealthcareandrehabilitation.

High-endmedicaldevices

Developadvanceddiagnosticandtreatmentequipment,includingimaging,surgicalrobots,andimplantabledevicesforchronicdiseasesandrehabilitation.

Source:NPC,Xinhua,HSBC.

Modernisetheinfrastructuresystem

China’smodernisationofitsinfrastructureunderthenewFYPmarksadeparturefromtheold

modeloflocallydriven,oftenfragmentedinvestmentthatsometimesledtoresourcewasteandduplication.Thecurrentstrategyemphasisesnationallycoordinateddevelopmentofintegratedtransport,energy,water,anddigitalinfrastructure–suchashigh-speedrailcorridors,smart

grids,andunifieddatanetworks–toboostconnectivity,resilience,andgreentransformation.

Thisforward-lookingapproachensuresinfrastructureinvestmentismoreefficient,betteralignedwithnationalpriorities,andsupportsChina’stransitiontohigh-quality,sustainablegrowth.

Technologyandinnovation:self-relianceasstrategicimperative

ComparedtothepreviousFYP,thecurrentplanmarksadecisiveshift:innovationisnowthe

centralpillarofChina’smodernisation,withacomprehensive,nationallycoordinatedapproachtobuildingworld-classscienceandtechnology(S&T)capabilities.Thereisastrongeremphasisonoriginalinnovation,basicresearch,talent,enterpriseleadership,andglobalengagement–

reflectingboththeurgencyofexternalchallengesandChina’sambitiontoleadinthenextwaveoftechnologicalandindustrialtransformation(seeTable3forS&Tstrategiesunderthe15th

FYPvsunder14thFYP).

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Table3:EvolutionofScience&Technologystrategy

Theme

14thFYP

15thFYP

NationalstrategicS&Tstrength

Emphasisedbuildinginnovationcapacity,

Callsfora“nationalstrategicS&Tforce”ledby

lessfocusonnationalcoordination.

nationallabsandinnovationplatforms;integratedresources.

Original&leading-edgeinnovation

SupportedR&Dandsomebasicresearch,

Stressesoriginal,pioneeringinnovationincore

focusonappliedresearch.

tech(AI,quantum,semiconductors,etc);boostsbasicresearchfunding.

MajorS&Tplatforms

Supportedscienceparksandhigh-tech

Prioritisesinternationalscience/innovation

zones.

centresandmajorresearchinfrastructure;resourcesharingandefficiency.

Enterprise-ledinnovation

Encouragedenterpriseinnovation,less

Deepensenterpriserole;opensnational

systematicsupport.

platforms/datatofirms,supportstechtransfer,R&Dincentives,andSMEinnovation.

Talentasfirstresource

Supportedtalentdevelopment,lessintegration.

Talentisthe“firstresource”;comprehensivereformstoattract,cultivate,andretaintop

talent,includingglobally.

Innovationgovernance&IPprotection

Improvedinnovationenvironmentand

DeepensS&Tmanagementreform,more

someIPreforms.

autonomyforinstitutions,betterincentives,robustIPprotectionandcommercialisation.

Openness&globalcollaboration

Supportedinternationalcooperation,more

Activelypursuesopen,inclusive,mutually

cautiousapproach.

beneficialS&Tcooperation;encouragesglobalprojects,talent,andfundingflows

Source:NPC,HSBC.

Pillar2–astrongdomesticmarket

The15thFYPmarksadecisivestepforwardinChina’sstrategicshifttowardrelyingondomesticdemandastheprimaryengineofgrowth.Buildingonthe14thFYP’s“dualcirculation”

framework,thenewplanplacesevengreateremphasisonexpandingandstrengtheningthedomesticmarket.Thisevolutionreflectsthegrowingrecognitionthat,amidrisinggeopoliticalrisks,globaleconomicuncertainties,andthesheerscaleofChina’seconomy,domestic

demandshouldbeamorereliablegrowthdriver(seeChart4onChina’sGDPbreakdownbythreeexpenditurecomponentssince2008).

Chart4:GDPbreakdown:consumption,investment,netexportsfrom2008

Contributionppt

200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025ConsumptionInvestmentNetexportsGDP:%y-o-y

15

12

9

6

3

0

-3

-6

Source:CEIC,HSBC.

Theplancallsforacceleratingtheconstructionofaunifiednationalmarketandmakingdomestic

demandthestrategicanchorfordevelopment.Itaimstocreateavirtuouscyclebetween

consumptionandinvestment,andbetweensupplyanddemand,byboostingresidents’consumptioncapacity,expandinghigh-qualitysupply,andimprovingtheinvestmentenvironment.Special

initiativestargetthereleaseofserviceconsumptionpotential,theupgradingofgoodsconsumption,andthecreationofafair,unified,andcompetitivemarketorder.Bybreakingdownlocal

protectionismandmarketsegmentation,andbyimprovingtherulesandinfrastructureforaunifiednationalmarket,Chinaseekstoenhancetheresilienceandreliabilityofitsdomesticeconomiccycle–makingitamoredependablesourceoflong-termgrowthinanincreasinglyuncertainworld.

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Boostdomesticconsumption

The15thFYPtakesamajorstepforwardinmakingdomesticconsumptionacornerstoneof

China’seconomicresilienceandgrowth.Whilethe14thFYPfocusedonupgrading

consumptionandenhancingqualityoflife,the15thFYPgoesfurtherbyrollingouttargeted

measurestoboostboththewillingnessandabilityofhouseholdstospend,broadentherangeofavailablegoodsandservices,andfosternewconsumptionexperiences.Itputsastrong

emphasisonjobcreation,risingincomes,andarobustsocialsafetynetasthebedrockforsustainableconsumption.

Serviceconsumptionisgivenaclearpriority–reflectingbothChina’srelativelylowservice

consumptionshareversusdevelopedeconomies(Chart5)andthesector’sroleastheleadingjobcreatorsince2013(Chart6)–withencouragementforinnovativemodelsandcross-sectorintegration,whilegoodsconsumptionisguidedtowardsmarter,greener,andhigher-quality

products.Theplanalsoseekstosystematicallyimprovetheconsumerenvironmentby

removingbarriers,wideningaccesstoconsumerfinance,andstrengtheningconsumerrights,signalingamoreholisticandproactiveapproachtounlockingdomesticdemandamidglobaluncertainty.

Chart5:Chinesehouseholdslaginserviceconsumption

Householdconsumptionas%ofGDP(2024)

40

30

20

10

0

ServicesGoods

50

Source:Wind,HSBC

Chart6:Servicesectorhasbeentheleadingjobcreatorsince2013

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

China:Numberofemployedpersons(mn,net

yearlychanges)

200020032006200920122015201820212024

PrimaryindustrySecondaryindustry

Tertiaryindustry

Source:Wind,HSBC.

Increaseeffectiveinvestment

The15thFYPrepresentsaclearshiftinChina’sinvestmentstrategy,movingbeyondthe14th

FYP’semphasisonlarge-scaleinfrastructureandpublicserviceexpansiontofocuson“effectiveinvestment”.Whilethepreviousplanprioritisedbridginginfrastructuregapsandboosting

strategicindustrieswithbothpublicandprivatecapital,the15thFYPplacesgreaterweightoninvestmentquality,efficiency,andalignmentwithnationalpriorities.Notably,itexpandsthe

scopeofinvestmenttoinclude“investinginpeople”–suchashumancapital,healthcare,education,andskillsdevelopment–alongsidetraditionalphysicalinfrastructure.

Theplanalsohighlightstheneedtobalanceinvestmentandconsumption,promotingprojectsthatdirectlyimprovepeople’swillingnessandabilitytospend,aswellastheirqualityoflife,inareaslikehealth,elderlycare,andleisure.Governmentinvestmentwillbemoretargetedandbettermanagedtoavoidinefficiencyandoverbuilding,whileprivateinvestmentisencouragedthroughimprovedaccess,protection,andopportunitiestoparticipateinmajorprojects.This

morerefinedapproachaimstofosteravirtuouscyclebetweeninvestmentandconsumption,underpinningsustainableandresilientgrowth.

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Buildaunifiednationalmarket

Forthefirsttime,theFYPmakesbuildingaunifiednationalmarketacentralpolicypriority.

Introducedin2022,theconceptofa“unifiedmarket”drawsparallelswiththeEU’spursuitofasinglemarket,whichmightbesurprisingforpeoplelessfamiliarwithChina.

Theplanlaysoutacomprehensiveagendatodismantlelocalprotectionismandmarket

segmentation,aimingfortheseamlessflowofgoods,capital,talent,andotherfactors

nationwide.Keymeasuresincludeunifiedrulesforpropertyrights,marketaccess,informationdisclosure,socialcredit,mergersandexits,andbankruptcy,alongsidestrongerintellectual

propertyprotectionandstandardisedmarketsupervisionandcompetitionpolicies.TheFYP

alsocallsforhigh-standardconnectivityinlogistics,information,andtradingplatforms,andthecreationofamodern,efficientcirculationsystem.

Thispushishighlysignificant.Historically,competitionamonglocalgovernmentshasdrivenChina’srapidgrowthbyencouraginginnovationandgrassrootsexperimentation.However,ithasalsofosteredlocalprotectionism,whichdistortsresourceallocation,underminesfair

competition,anddisproportionatelyimpactslessdevelopedregionsastheytendtouselocalprotectionismmoreoften.

Toaddressthis,policymakersmuststrikeacarefulbalance–designingincentivesthat

encouragelocaleconomicgrowth,whilepreventingadministrativemonopoliesandfragmentedmarkets.ThischallengecloselymirrorstheEU’scompetitionpoliciesagainststateaid,as

uncheckedlocalsubsidiesandrestrictiveregulationscanleadtoinefficiencyandresourcewaste,withmultipleregionschasingthesame“hot”industriesandfuellingovercapacity.

Theunifiednationalmarketinitiativeaimstoresolvethesebottlenecks,unlockingthefull

potentialofChina’svastmarketbyenablingfreermovementofgoods,services,capital,andtalent.Indoingso,itcouldnotonlyboostresourceallocationandproductivity,butalsohelpprevent“involutionarycompetition”,supportinghigh-qualitydevelopment,innovation,and

greatereconomicresilience.

The

NPC

(13March)hasalreadysetoutconcreteactionplans,suchasenactingunifiedmarketregulation,tofacilitatethecreationofaunifiednationalmarket.Thisinitiativeisactivelyunderway.

People-centredurbanisation

China’s“people-oriented”urbanisationagendahasevolvedsignificantlysincethelaunchofthenationalnew-typeurbanisationplan(2014-20).Whilethe14thFYPandtheFive-YearAction

PlanforUrbanisation(2024-29)setoutclearquantitativeandqualitativetargets,the15thFYPnolongertreatsurbanisationasastandalonechapter.Instead,itembedsurbanisationwithinthebroaderpopulationstrategy,reflectingitscentralroleinChina’seconomictransformation.

Unlikeearlierpoliciesthatfocusedprimarilyonshiftingrurallabourintocitiestosupport

manufacturing,the15thFYPpositionsurbanisationasakeyleverforeconomicrebalancingandsustainablegrowth.Byfosteringastrongsynergybetweencitiesandindustrialclusters,this

steadyaggregationofpeoplewilllikelydrivetheexpansionoftheservicesectortoo.The

emphasishasshiftedtowardsconverting“populationinflows”intosettledurbanresidentsand

activeconsumers,withtargetedmeasurestosupportmigrantworkers’integration–suchas

equalaccesstopublicservic